Automation: Resistance is Futile?

Continuing the running theme of the backbench members debates this term - the "Fourth Industrial Revolution" - AMs turned to automation, something that was once science fiction but fast becoming science fact.

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Tainted Blood

(Pic : ITV)

The latest member's debate covers what was once described by Prof. Robert Winston as one of the worst disasters in NHS history.

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FMQs: Brexit, Trains & Disability

There are two big non-FMQ related stories today. Firstly, the Senedd voting on a Legislative Consent Motion (LCM) for the Wales Bill. It's expected to pass and there's little to add. Just cross your fingers and hope AMs haven't been sold magic beans (either way).

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EU Referendum : The Deal

(Pic : Reuters via BBC)

As you're probably all more than aware, last Saturday the Prime Minister, EU Commission and heads of government of other EU member states (EU Council) reached agreement on a renegotiated UK membership of the EU – you can read the text of the agreement here (pdf).

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Poverty Inquiry : Poverty & Inequality

The modern image of poverty is something like the above, but it should also include
low-paid care workers, part-time shop assistants and people priced out of housing.
(Pic : Swansea Sound)

Earlier this week, the Assembly's Communities & Local Government Committee launched the first report of a four-part inquiry into poverty in Wales (pdf) - and a 10-page summary (pdf). Each strand of the inquiry has its own terms of reference, and this first report focuses on how poverty is measured, defined and generally dealt with at a national level.

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Westminster 2015 : The ITV Wales Debate

(Pic : ITV Wales)

Another week, another debate; this time from ITV Wales, hosted by Sharp End's Adrian Masters in Cardiff. For some reason it's not available online (though I watched it online), so you'll just have to take my word for it, although the ITV Wales website has a running commentary on what was said on their website.

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Westminster 2015 : The Manifestos Part II

• Westminster 2015 : The Manifestos I (Conservatives, Greens, Labour)

Following yesterday's look at the party manifestos (linked above), today it's the turn of the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and UKIP.

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Westminster 2015 : The Manifestos Part I

The following two posts are the most important of the lot this election campaign : What are we voting for in May? Or, more accurately, what might be on the table during negotiations in the event of a hung parliament?

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Westminster 2015 : The Key Issues in Wales

What are likely to be the main issues for Welsh voters?
(Pic : Click on Wales)

The first debate's out of the way, I've given my verdict on the Coalition and the manifestos are going to be released over the next few weeks (I'll look at them in more detail once their all out, though UKIP are dragging their heels by the looks of it) - which means it's time to focus on some of the issues that might be fought over in Wales.

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Westminster 2015 : How have the Coalition performed?

As of Monday, every MP will be unemployed and scrounging for votes. So it's fitting
to kick them when they're down, as the Cameron administration know all about that.
(Pic : millenniumhotels.co.uk)

With the formal dissolution of the UK parliament coming on Monday, the time's come to kick-start my coverage of the 2015 House of Commons election.

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Gissa Job : Assisting Young People Into Work

An Assembly committee has investigated the barriers facing young people as they enter the
world of work, as well as assessing Welsh Government actions to reduce youth unemployment.
(Pic : The Guardian)

Another tome, I'm afraid. All part of the service.

Last week, the Enterprise & Business Committee published their report into how young people find  work (pdf). This is particularly important as quoted statistics underline how hard young people have been hit by the recession - up to 18% of 18-24 year olds were unemployed in 2014 compared to just 4.4% of 35-49 year olds.

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Bridgend's Deprivation Mapped

The Caerau Park and Tudor estates are placed near the top of the most
relatively deprived areas in Wales. What about the rest of the county?
(Pic : zoopla.com)

Last week, the latest figures from the triennial Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) were released by the Welsh Government and Office of National Statistics. Deprivation itself is defined, statistically, as a "lack of access to opportunities or resources".

The WIMD collects data from each of Wales' 1,909 Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) – there's roughly one for every 1,000-1,500 people – and compares them to each other, giving policy makers and the general public an idea how relatively deprived neighbourhoods are compared to the rest of Wales (not the rest of the local authority).

So it's important to point out from the start that ranking lowly doesn't mean a community is "affluent" and it doesn't measure precisely how deprived a community is – only how deprived a community is compared to every other community in Wales.

The WIMD has an overall ranking, but it also has 8 separate types of deprivation each LSOA is measured against, with some indicators weighing more heavily in the final ranking than others :

• Income – Proportions of people with an income below a certain level and claiming income-based benefits and tax credits.
• Employment – A general lack of employment, based on claims for out-of-work benefits.
• Health – Lack of good health, including : long-term disabilities, low birth weights, cancer incidences and death rates.
• Education – Numbers of people with no qualifications, truancy levels, university admissions and GCSE pass rates.
• Access to Services – The ability to access everyday services essential for day-to-day living (food, GP appointments, after school clubs), and the travel times to reach such services.
• Community Safety – Overall crime levels, based on police and fire service statistics.
• Physical Environment – Proximity to big polluters, flood risk and air quality.
• Housing – Lack of adequate housing, including overcrowding and no access to central heating.

In terms of the all-Wales figures, St James' in Caerphilly is now ranked as the most relatively deprived community in Wales, though many of the names towards the top are all too familiar – Rhyl West, Splott, Queensway 1 in Wrexham (Caia Park), Twyn Carno (Fochriw, I think), Penydarren 1 (Galon Uchaf area of Merthyr) and Caerau 1 in Bridgend (Caerau Park and Tudor Estates).

With the number crunching done, it's worth taking a look at the picture in Bridgend in some more detail.

Overall Ranking & Changes Compared to 2011

(Click to enlarge)

The 2014 listings aren't really all that different to those in 2011.

The areas you would expect to be more deprived were, including : Caerau, Morfa ward (which includes Wildmill), Bettws, and at a more local level the Brackla Meadows estate, Bryntirion (the area around the Labour club), the Marlas estate in North Cornelly and the Queens Avenue area of Sarn.

As you would also expect, the valleys are relatively more deprived than the coastal/Vale areas, and the suburbs of Bridgend (including Litchard, Broadlands and the Coity end of Brackla), as well as Porthcawl, come out of it rather well.

In terms of how the rankings have changed since 2011, very few areas have dramatically become relatively less deprived than they were, though Sarn 2 (the southern half of the village) fell the most places along with the Hendre area of Pencoed, Nottage in Porthcawl and Cornelly 2 (South Cornelly and Kenfig village). It looks like – despite their overall poor ranking – levels of deprivation in Caerau, Bettws and Morfa have stalled or have even improved slightly compared to the rest of Wales.

In terms of areas which have moved up the rankings, then Brackla comes off particularly badly, especially Brackla 1 (the area around Tremains Primary) and Brackla 4 (Priory Oak, Trem-y-Mor). All Garw Valley wards have slipped – and weren't in a great position in the first place – but it's Pyle 1 (a large chunk of Kenfig Hill) and Pendre – Carwyn Jones' old council ward – which have risen the sharpest in the rankings compared to 2011.

Income & Employment

(Click to enlarge)

These are perhaps two of the more important measures of deprivation as low incomes and lack of high quality employment will limit opportunities by themselves.

In terms of income, the picture perhaps isn't quite as bad as many would believe. Even in parts of the valleys – especially Pontycymer, Maesteg, Nantyfyllon (Caerau 5), Ynysawdre and Bryncethin – incomes are near enough in the middle compared to the rest of Wales, or even slightly exceeding this. These areas have lots of cheap housing and might be attractive for younger working families priced out of other areas, while Maesteg has always had a settled middle class.

Unsurprisingly, Porthcawl and the villages and suburbs of Bridgend and Pencoed do well. You need to remember though that Welsh income levels aren't great compared to the UK anyway.

With employment, however, the differences are more stark, with pronounced problems in the valleys and urban centres (Morfa, Pyle, Porthcawl East & West Central) as you might expect – Caerau 1 ranks as the 4^th most deprived area in terms of employment in the whole of Wales. Bridgend doesn't do too great overall, but clearly employment opportunities are much better south of the M4 and around Pencoed than elsewhere in the county.

Health & Education

(Click to enlarge)

There are five big pockets of areas where people are more deprived in terms of health compared to the rest of Wales – Caerau & Maesteg, Nantymoel, the central Garw Valley (Bettws, Llangeinor, Ynysawdre), North Cornelly & Pyle and the big estates in and around Bridgend town centre (Wildmill, Brackla Meadows, Ystrad Fawr). Again, this shouldn't be a surprise.

As you might expect the areas with good health are Broadlands, Laleston, Litchard and Brackla. These areas are not only generally wealthier than the average, but some areas - like Brackla - are generally younger than the rest of the county.

The north-south split is starker in education than any other measure. Pretty much all of the areas with low-ranking wards in terms of educational deprivation are located in and around Porthcawl, Pencoed and Bridgend, while the valleys have numerous areas that rank in the top 20% most deprived in Wales. The M4 almost matches the boundary perfectly as even Cornelly and Pyle fit in "the north".

That doesn't mean everywhere south of the M4 is doing well (Wildmill & Brackla Meadows) or that everywhere north of the M4 is doing badly (Llangynwyd & Aberkenfig).

Access to Services & Community Safety

(Click to enlarge)

Access to services is as much an infrastructure problem as one of the facilities being in close proximity. Blaengarw and Nantymoel have quite a few shops and services close at hand, ditto the upper Llynfi valley, so these areas do well. More rural areas like Cefn Cribwr and Coychurch, as well as "overheated" areas like Broadlands, will do badly. If you're close to a town centre you're going to rank well on this, so it doesn't really tell us much.

Community safety doesn't really tell us much either, as the closer you are to a town centre, the more crime will be committed. This means urban wards like Morfa and Porthcawl West & East Central will score worse than leafy suburbs like Broadlands, Litchard, Penyfai and Newton.

Caerau, Aberkenfig and Bettws don't really count as either so their poor scores on community safety probably indicate problems other than population density - presumably high levels of anti-social behavior.

Environment & Housing

(Click to enlarge)

You would expect areas close to Bridgend and Maesteg town centres to suffer from pollution problems, but there's a strip of particularly poor-scoring areas stretching from Aberkenfig to Pencoed. I think the culprits are the M4, traffic problems caused by the awkward road layout around Bryncethin, Tondu and Sarn, the Brynmenyn industrial estate and the fact the three main tributaries of the River Ogmore confluence in this area, which is prone to floods.

Ogmore Vale stands out and I have absolutely no idea why other than the polluting industries – like car scrappage and recycling firms - on the Penllwyngwent industrial estate.

On the flipside, you would expect rural wards and Porthcawl – with its seafront and access to the sand dunes - to score well, so no real surprise there.

Housing is the category where Bridgend county on a whole does very well compared to the rest of Wales, so this is clearly one of Bridgend's core strengths. It's probably because large amounts of housing have been built since the 1970s, like Brackla, or more recently, like Broadlands and Tondu, meaning they're often of a higher spec than the terraced houses of old. It's generally the areas where Edwardian and Victorian terraced houses are the only option – like the Garw Valley, Morfa 1 & 3 and Oldcastle 1 (the area around Nolton Street and Cowbridge Road) – which score poorly.

What can we learn from WIMD 2014?

Is enough being done in Bridgend's relatively deprived neighbourhoods?
(Pic : Wildmill Communities First)

Things haven't changed dramatically – As I've said, the areas of Bridgend you would've expected to rank towards the top and bottom have done so. Although these figures are relative, it's hard to tell if Welsh Government and local authority schemes like Communities First are really targeting the core issues that result in higher deprivation : unemployment, poor education and low incomes.

A better environment doesn't mean better life chances – The Bridgend valleys boast some of the finest scenery in south Wales, and since the end of mining, the environment of these areas has improved. The people there are still broadly worse off than those living in and around the M4 though. It makes you wonder if "sustainable development" is really going to improve people's well being or not, and whether local communities are being assisted to make the most of the natural environment.

Sarn and Pencoed are on the up; Brackla and Pendre are on the way down – Again, you have to remember that these figures are relative, but what's clear is that Sarn and Pencoed are becoming relatively less deprived compared to the surrounding areas, while Brackla and Pendre are starting to slip. Brackla is also, arguably, the most diverse council ward in Bridgend, as you can go from some of Wales' most grinding deprivation to some of its swankiest postcodes in a 20 minute walk.

Something needs to be done with "the usual suspects" – Marlas, Caerau, Bettws, Wildmill, Brackla Meadows - yet again they're mentioned for the wrong reasons. I could probably write fifty blogs on the state of Bridgend, but the question remains - what can be done to turn these areas around? With regard Caerau, in the last fortnight I mentioned there were plans for a holiday resort in the Afan Valley, which might generate much needed employment in the area and make use of Caerau's strengths – but those plans have stalled. Valleys 2 Coast had/have plans for housing renewal programmes in Wildmill (pdf) and Careau Park (pdf) too, but again presumably nothing will happen without the funding. New houses won't necessarily solve problems relating to crime, unemployment and low incomes either.

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National Assembly debates veterans support

People who leave the armed forces after active service are sometimes at greater risk of
developing mental illnesses, falling foul of the criminal justice system and homelessness.
(Pic : UK Government)

On Tuesday, the National Assembly debated Welsh Government support for armed forces personnel, which coincided with Armistice Day.

Public Services Minister, Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda), started by underlining the importance of 2014 due to the 100^th anniversary of the start of World War One and the 70^th anniversary of the D-Day landings. He said it was also important to remember veterans of more recent conflicts : Falklands, the Balkans, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Each local authority has signed a community covenant and has appointed a designated armed forces champion. In terms of what the Welsh Government are doing, Leighton said Veterans NHS Wales was the only national veterans' service of its kind in the UK, and veterans were satisfied with the service they received.

New guidelines will ensure veterans have a right to housing advice, and this will be backed by £2million for those leaving the armed forces. In addition, council tax reductions were introduced in April 2013, and these don't include veterans' benefits when means-testing. Leighton also said veterans were a priority group for the all-Wales re-offending prevention scheme, and that future support for veterans will need to take reservists into account, as UK Government reforms will mean reservists will have a more front line role.

Mark Isherwood AM (Con, North Wales), said it was "good news" the the UK government accepted part of British Legion's manifesto where spouses will be able to keep military pensions for life even if they have a new partner. Mark welcomed the work of both governments in signing up all 22 local authorities to the military covenant.

However, he said there was a need to protect real-terms funding for health services for ex-service personnel, and few veterans were aware of the services. Mark also highlighted the importance of peer mentoring of ex-services personnel, as post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) can be complex and might require residential treatment. Mark was concerned that the Welsh Government didn't support residential-based services.

Peter Black AM (Lib Dem, South Wales West) said debates like this were, "an opportunity to acknowledge the contribution of armed forces". The Welsh Lib Dems would prefer, what he describes as, a "seemless service" for veterans with mental health issues caused by active service.

He said helplines and websites were not always the best way to deal with such problems, and the Welsh Government weren't doing enough to address mental health issues, with serious treatment and diagnostic delays. Peter also made the important point that PTSD of this sort isn't just confined to the armed forces, but applies to the emergency services.

Lindsay Whittle AM (Plaid, South Wales East) described his 5 day stint in Afghanistan, saying that when he was waiting to leave Kabul, all service personnel had in terms of readjustment to demobilisation was a 10 minute video.

He said veterans are more likely to face homelessness, fall foul of the criminal justice system and suffer  mental health problems. As many of the services often have to be sought out by the person themselves (self-referral), Lindsay believes this meant many "slip through the net". He argued that as so much money was spent on training recruits for combat, similar resources should be available for readjustment.

Lindsay criticised the Ministry of Defence, saying they had a "duty of care" to veterans, and they should stop expecting the "overstretched" Welsh NHS to pick up the tab.

Julie Morgan AM (Lab, Cardiff North), said a new British Legion drop-in centre had over 1,000 contacts in the short time it's been set up, and she was impressed by the range of help offered, and the fact it was easily accessible. She raised concerns about people leaving the armed forces before their minimum service requirements (usually 4 years), as they're not always able to access the same levels of support.

Jeff Cuthbert AM (Lab, Caerphilly) said that as the last British troops were being withdrawn from Afghanistan, there's a more critical need to look at veterans' support; even if defence policy isn't devolved, aftercare is. He believes the Welsh Government should continue to report on their package of support annually.

He raised the issue of finding veterans employment after they've left the services, as they're often young, have transferable skills, and can show teamwork and communication skills. He would, therefore, also like updates on re-employing veterans and the training they receive.

The motion noting the Welsh Government's support for armed forces personnel and calling for ongoing support was unanimously passed.

Policy Responses

There've been two policy announcements from Welsh parties to coincide with Remembrance events.

Firstly, outgoing Plaid Cymru MP, Elfyn Llwyd, launched the party's own set of commitments to helping the estimated 250,000 veterans living in Wales. Their proposals include special Veterans' Courts to deal with criminal justice cases involving veterans, ensuring people leaving the forces have access to information on housing, health and employment and an audit of the numbers of ex-forces people in prison.

Though after what's happening in Scotland, political parties should be very careful about calling something a "vow".

Secondly, the Welsh Conservatives debated their own proposal for an Armed Forces Commissioner yesterday. The Commissioner would be tasked with holding public bodies to account to ensure they live up to their commitments under the military covenant.

The Welsh Conservatives have also long supported an Armed Forces Card, which would provide concessionary or free services, or bump them up waiting lists.

Soldiers are for life, not just for Remembrance Day

The biggest mark of respect we can pay members of the services is
ensuring they're only put in harm's way for the right reasons.
(Pic : Getty Images via Financial Times)

I'm glad the Assembly discuss things like this, but as someone with a strong military pedigree - on both sides of my family - even I feel there's a sentimentality about veterans and remembrance that's bordering on a complex.

Although it was inevitable it was going to go into overdrive this year (and will again next year and in 2018), it's become noticeably stronger over the last decade, and I think it's collective guilt.

Large numbers of us feel guilty about Iraq (perhaps other wars too) – some of us didn't do enough to stop it, others backed it when they shouldn't have, others – like the Labour Party – are forever stained by it. By questioning it we think we're "letting veterans down", so we overcompensate by excessive parades, commemoration and glorification of a modern toy soldier.

That's all very solemn and respectful, but it doesn't address the bigger issues.

First of all, let's dispel the myth that the modern UK military are "defending the country", because they're not. That's rarely their job anymore. The imminent dangers the UK face are severe weather, flooding and disruption to energy supplies, not a foreign military power.
What the military actually do is implement the forceful side of the UK's foreign policy, whilst also playing a role in international development, counter-terrorism abroad and policing. They're also a de facto further education college for many kids who are otherwise hard to reach, and are amongst the biggest purchasers of goods and services in the public sector.

It's never wrong to question defence or foreign policy, or question whether it's right to send troops into various situations. Doing so doesn't do anything to take away any sacrifices service personnel make, and it might prevent it happening in the first place, which is more respectful than seeing them as disposable heroes.

But we don't force tens of thousands of teenage boys to their deaths anymore and the modern military is highly-skilled, highly-trained and – most importantly of all – voluntary. That's despite it sometimes being an employer of last resort for those who can't find jobs elsewhere, or need the discipline and camaraderie a military career often provides.

In terms of dangerous jobs, you're more likely to be killed or seriously injured on a farm or fishing boat than in the military; while a significant proportion of service personnel will be killed on the roads compared to active service.

Lindsay Whittle hit the nail on the head. Defence isn't devolved. It's the Ministry of Defence and UK Government who should clear up the problems their little sojourns abroad leave the men and women they so actively ask to serve their interests. Or, at the very least, they should make sure the Welsh Government have everything they need to do the job they've largely abandoned.

That's not to understate the mark serving in the armed forces leaves on individuals. The adjustment to civilian life can be incredibly difficult for some, especially if you're used to regimented routines and having everything you need provided for you.

Outside the military, the only other place you get that is prison.

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Housing Bill introduced to the National Assembly

The Welsh Government's Housing Bill is a wide-ranging law that aims
to tackle "rogue landlords", address homelessness, improve social housing
standards and reduce the number of empty homes.
(Pic : The Guardian)

Continuing the housing theme, the Welsh Government's Housing Bill was introduced to the National Assembly on Tuesday by Housing and Regeneration Minister, Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside).

It's fair to describe it as "flagship" legislation, and it's also a whopper, coming in at 85 pages.The Bill's available here (pdf) and the explanatory memorandum here (pdf).
It's been recently said elsewhere....apparently....that the Welsh blogosphere often "lacks thought and detail", is too safe and sanitised and has failed to "facilitate democratic engagement and scrutiny".

I'll admit it. I've let you, the Assembly, our AMs and the whole of Welsh society down.

It's a burden I carry every night, as I lie awake, wondering whether to cover gosspy, banal stories like the ongoing collapse of local democracy in Carmarthenshire, the impact of High Speed 2 on the Welsh economy or getting my chompers around the annual report of the Chief Dental Officer.

The blogosphere continuously fails to demand answers to the big questions. What does the Taxpayers' Alliance think about politicians eating and breathing at public expense? What does some chippy anonymous source think about press officers writing press releases at their place of work?

The blogosphere was supposed to open a window, casting light and transparency on Welsh democracy and those who claim to uphold it. Clearly, all opening that window ever did was let in a field's worth of beefy cow farts. It's a dereliction of duty. We need to return to fighting for what is right and cover the controversial.

I'll spend more time hanging around the Senedd, Eli Jenkins pub and Tŷ Hywel looking for receipts in bins. I'll use my extensive network of Assembly spies and media connections - because everyone outside the Bay Bubble establishment has them - more effectively; telling you if Assembly staff are using all those flatscreen TVs to watch Bargain Hunt, or what AMs really think of Peter Black's ties. The people have a right to know.

Instead of my typically concise, pithy blogs, I'm going to do something different today and go into a bit more detail than usual. There's nothing more worthy of democratic engagement and scrutiny than a new law; which could directly and indirectly affect tens of millions in public and private spending as well as thousands of households. The sort of thing I'd usually just gloss over.

Few of you are masochistic enough to delve through it yourselves, so I guess I'm going to have to try to cram more than 250 pages of text to as close to 2,000 words as possible. In my own time. By myself. For free.

What people think of that and whether people take time to acknowledge it is another matter.


Why does Wales need a Housing Bill?

It's claimed 14,000 new homes are required in Wales each year – up to 9,200 private new builds, and 5,100 from other providers like private landlords, housing associations and local authorities. They're all going to be of varying quality and owned/operated by many different companies and individuals.

One of the key aims is to create a mandatory licensing system for landlords and letting agents, as until now such schemes have been voluntary, with some landlords being bad news for both tenants and communities.

The Welsh Government say there are 22,000 empty properties, many of which can be brought up to a decent standard. Existing homes, especially older housing, also need upgrades. That's being carried out to social housing via the Wales Quality Housing Standard (WHQS), but not enough is being done in the private rented sector.

Homelessness is on an upward trend – some 5,800 households were accepted as homeless in 2012-13 - as housebuilding slows, social houses aren't built at a fast enough rate to keep up with demand, and welfare reforms impact households, like the infamous "bedroom tax".

In addition to that there's the perennial local campaign favourite of new gypsy and traveller sites, while the Bill could also lead to reforms in social housing standards and charges, and make an expansion of co-operative home ownership easier and more attractive to prospective tenants.

What does the Housing Bill propose?

The Bill itself is divided into 8 parts and 3 schedules. I'm clumping them together into broad themes instead.

Regulation of the Private Renting Sector

The Bill:

• Makes it a legal requirement for private landlords and/or letting agents to register and be licenced with any local authority in which they let property.
• Places statutory duties on local authorities to maintain a publicly accessible register of licenced landlords and agents.
• Places a duty on licenced landlords or agents to notify local authorities of any change of circumstances within 28 days of the change occurring.
• Disqualifies people from receiving a licence if they :
• fail a "fit and proper persons test" – including committing fraud, acts of discrimination or harassment, firearms offences, sexual offences or failing to comply with other housing/landlord laws.
• haven't been trained in managing rental properties to the local authority's satisfaction.
• don't agree to abide by a Welsh Government Code of Practice.
• Mandates that licences will be valid for 5 years from the date of issue and will allow licences to be renewed 3 months before they expire.
• Grants local authorities the power to :
  • revoke licences if a landlord or agent breaches any rules (with a right to appeal).
  • issue "rent stopping orders" - where no rent is payable – if a landlord fails to comply with licencing requirements.
  • turn down a licence renewal (with a right to appeal).
• Creates new offences, like :
• failing to produce/display a licence - up to £1,000 fine.
• advertising, letting or managing a rental property without a licence - up to £1,000 fine, barring a "reasonable excuse".
• failing to provide documents to local authorities when required - up to £2,500 fine.
• providing false information to the local authority - up to £2,500 fine.

Homelessness

The Housing Bill aims to prevent people becoming homeless in the
first place by placing duties on housing authorities to intervene early.
(Pic :BBC)

The Bill:

• Places a statutory duty on local authorities to carry out a homelessness review and publish a homelessness strategy every four years starting in 2018, which includes monitoring current and expected levels of homelessness, homelessness prevention activities and resources available to combat homelessness.
• Defines a "homeless person" as someone who :
• has no accommodation they can occupy legally.
• cannot occupy a home in the UK they would otherwise be entitled to occupy.
• cannot secure entry into a home they otherwise live in.
• lives in a movable home with no permitted place to put it.
• Defines someone as "threatened with homelessness" if they would become homeless (as defined above) within 56 days.
• Outlines that when dealing with homelessness applications, local authorities must :
• determine whether emergency accommodation is "suitable" for a person.
• provide information and advice to someone who's homeless or threatened with homelessness.
• prevent homelessness applicants from becoming homeless in the first place.
• guarantee accommodation for "priority need applicants".
• try and find accommodation within their area whenever they can. Though the Bill sets out the arrangements whereby they notify, in writing, any other local authority they intend house someone in.
• Sets out guidelines for appeals, reviews, and protection of a homeless applicant's property (where applicable).
• Makes it an offence to provide false, or knowingly withhold, information when making a homelessness application, punishable by a fine of up to £2,500.
• Gives local authorities the power to refer homeless applicants to another local authority in Wales or England if they don't have a local connection - unless they're at risk of domestic abuse.
• Defines "local connection" as a person who :
• was normally resident in the local authority they've made a homelessness application in.
• is employed in the local authority.
• has family associations in the local authority.

Eligibility for Homelessness Assistance

• "Priority need applicants" include :
• pregnant women (and a person they would normally reside with).
• people with dependant children, with disabilities, are elderly, have a serious illness or are subject to domestic abuse.
• people affected by a natural or man-made disaster.
• 16-21 year olds who've left care, fostering or are at risk of sexual or financial exploitation.
• former military personnel who are homeless upon leaving the Armed Forces.
• "vulnerable" released prisoners (or someone who's been held on remand) but only those with a "local connection" (as defined above).
• People ineligible for help under this law are :
• persons from abroad who are otherwise ineligible, including non-EU nationals.
• subject to immigration controls or are excluded from benefit entitlements under the Asylum & Immigration Acts 1996 & 1999
• Statutory homelessness duties on local authorities will end for people who:
• turn down emergency accommodation that the local authority has deemed suitable.
• become "intentionally homeless" (i.e. evicted due to anti-social behaviour) – though the Welsh Government will have the power to draw up who counts as "intentionally homeless".
• accepts either an offer of a private sector tenancy that lasts at least 6 months or a social housing tenancy.

Gypsies & Travellers

The Housing Bill could lead to an increase in the number
of legal traveller sites in Wales.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

The Bill :

• Defines a "gypsy or traveller" as
• a person of a "nomadic lifestyle" regardless of race.
• people who used to live a nomadic lifestyle but no longer do (i.e. health reasons).
• travelling circuses and show people.
• anyone who lives in a mobile home for cultural reasons.
• Places a statutory duty on local authorities to :
• carry out an assessment of, and publish a report into, gypsy and traveller site requirements every five years from the publication of their first report.
• use their powers under the Mobile Homes Act 2013 to provide sites for travellers where there's an assessed need.
• Gives Welsh Ministers the power to :
• approve, amend or reject any gypsy and traveller needs assessment, and issue guidance to local authorities.
• force local authorities to meet certain duties with regard gypsy and traveller sites as stipulated in the Mobile Homes Act 2013.

Social Housing Standards

The Bill :

• Gives Welsh Ministers the power to set and revise standards for social housing, including :
• rent levels and service charges (which will be charged separately).
• rules relating to rent levels and service charges.
• the quality of social housing itself.
• Gives Welsh Ministers (or someone working on their behalf) the power to issue warnings, intervene, and the power of entry, if they believe housing authorities aren't complying with standards.
• Removes a requirement in the Housing Act 1985 for housing authorities - when setting "reasonable rents" - to keep social rents broadly in line with private sector rents. Instead, they'll need to comply with any new guidance/limits Welsh Ministers introduce.

Finance, Tenancies and Council Tax on Empty Properties

Long-term empty and abandoned homes will be liable
to a 150% council tax rate.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

The Bill :

• Abolishes the Housing Revenue Accounts Subsidy (HRAS), and gives Welsh Ministers the power to set a "settlement payment" for the eleven Welsh local authorities forced to leave the scheme as a result.
• Amends the Housing Act 1988 to enable mutuals and co-operatives to provide assured tenancies, enabling co-operative/mutual tenants to benefit from the same legal protections as assured tenancies offered elsewhere.
• Via amendments to the Local Government Finance Act 1992, gives local authorities the option to set an additional 50% rate of council tax (150%) on "long-term empty properties" (unoccupied and unfurnished for at least a year). It also gives Welsh Ministers the power to decided what properties this would apply to.

Costs

Now things start to get complicated.

Creating a mandatory landlord and agent register will cost £500,000, but would be self-financing because of fee income. Start-up costs for local authorities are estimated to be £250,000. Most of the burden falls on landlords and agents - upwards of £8million (between 2015-2017) - with costs falling to £265,000 per year once landlords/agents are registered and properly accredited as outlined in the Bill.

With regard the homelessness measures, the explanatory memorandum estimates ~32,100 applications for homelessness assistance will be made in 2015-16. The total cost, under existing laws, is estimated to be ~£21.3million. Under the preferred option in the new law, additional costs are estimated to be £5.9million, based on increases in homelessness assistance applications - an extra 3,200 - as a result of the Bill's provisions (for example, increasing the limit of "threatened with homelessness" from 28 to 56 days).

The total cost of the homelessness provisions is estimated to be in the region of £27.2-32.4million, based on expected homelessness figures, which themselves are dependant on multiple factors, including welfare reform and the state of the economy.

The gypsy and traveller measures will cost ~£1.6million per year until 2019-20, with most of that being the existing £1.5million grant to fund new traveller sites.

The preferred option for social housing standards sees a £15,000 per year cost fall on the Welsh Government, and £7,000 per year falling on social housing providers to collect and submit data. The preferred option for rent and service charge changes would initially cost £1.7million to set up – the vast bulk falling on local authorities – and £397,000 per year afterwards.

Abolishing HRAS has apparently been agreed with the Treasury, estimated to cost ~£990,000. However, an estimated £33million of rent income from Welsh local authority housing would then remain in Wales instead of being paid to Westminster.

The costs of the co-operative housing tenancy provisions will be around £130-140,000, mostly taking the form of continued funding to the Wales Co-operative Centre.

Additional council tax rate on empty homes would initially cost £359,000 to local authorities and Welsh Government to set up. From 2016-17, when the provisions come into force, it'll cost £527,000 per year in increased enforcement and tribunal costs. However, it's estimated a 150% council tax rate would raise somewhere between £11-14.4million for local authorities from the just over 24,200 homes left empty for more than a year.

What does this Bill mean?

Expect to see more of this.
This Bill is....wait for it....potentially quite controversial, and there
are more talking points than the media have let on.
(Pic : Wales Online)

There are many significant provisions in this Bill, notably the creation of a mandatory licensing system for private landlords, which should professionalise the industry further, helping to drive "slumlords" out – I'm thinking along the north Wales coast in particular.

Alongside that, other provisions – like those relating to mutual and co-operative housing and a fairer system of rents and charges for social housing tenants – seem sensible, even populist in some circumstances. It's for AMs to decide if that's truly the case though.

The extra council tax rate on empty properties might cause problems, especially if many are old holiday homes that haven't been used in a long time, though it's unrelated to the proposed general 200% rate on second homes. It would also encourage owners either to sell, renovate or rent their properties, increasing housing supply.

The abolition of HRAS – one of the few ways Wales has subsidised England to the tune of hundreds of millions of pounds, perhaps more, for decades – will lead to rent being retained in Wales, and money that could be reinvested in social housing by housing authorities. If the Bill passes and HRAS is abolished, then the Bevan Foundation and Plaid Cymru can probably chalk up its abolition as a success for them as much as the Welsh Government.

The gypsy and traveller provisions could cause problems as many people have an "issue" with traveller sites. The prospect of more of them being required by law could lead to difficulties in some communities, and perhaps for individual AMs too. No AM will be able to campaign against extra traveller sites honestly if they back the provisions in the Bill as outlined.

Entrenched opposition to sites might be less if local residents knew travellers living on legal sites were paying their way (they pay council tax when living on local authority and private sites, and most - if not all - work), had a strict code of conduct, and had full access to local authority services like rubbish collection.

There needs to be a bit of common sense when deciding where they should go. They shouldn't be sited out in the sticks on busy main roads, but there's no point in siting them in built up areas either. I'm not sure if that's best left to any Welsh Government guidance/regulations to come from the Bill, or if it should be included as clauses within the Bill itself.

The homelessness provisions are extensive – perhaps to the point it should've been a stand alone Homelessness Bill. They could cause controversy, mainly due to the impact on recently-released prisoners and (as I understand it) the powers for Welsh local authorities to transfer any homeless applicants who don't have a local connection elsewhere - including back over the border where applicable. The only exceptions, it seems, would be those fleeing domestic violence.

The Bill maintains released prisoners as a priority homelessness group if they have a proven local connection. However, homelessness is often cited as a cause of re-offending. Like gypsies and travellers, sheltered accommodation for homeless and vulnerable young adults is often sited in unsuitable places and attracts local opposition.

It's a reasonable compromise, as is the general requirement for a "local connection" when receiving homelessness assistance. It's best people receive help where they have strong connections and are perhaps known to the authorities, instead of becoming vagrants. The same requirements should apply to social homes too.

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Tomorrow's Enterprise - Assembly Youth Entrepreneurship Report

Starting your own business is often daunting. A recent National Assembly committee
inquiry highlighted the good and bad in terms of support for entrepreneurship in Wales.
(Pic : BBC)

Entrepreneurship is one those "big issues"in the Welsh economy you always see mentioned, but never quite understand or look into in any great detail, as it seems very much about your own experiences of it. Where successful Welsh businesses of tomorrow come from - and how they're helped to get to the top - is an issue of vital importance though.

The Assembly's Business and Enterprise Committee report into Youth Entrepreneurship was launched at Caerphilly's Innovation Centre for Enterprise earlier this week (pdf).

In total there were ten recommendations, summarised as :

• Better monitoring of entrepreneurship, and trying to bridge the gap between numbers of young people thinking of starting a business and those actually starting one.
• Ensure entrepreneurship and social entrepreneurship are part of the school curriculum from primary school through to further and higher education, possibly becoming part of the Welsh Baccalaureate.
• Review the advice available to young entrepreneurs, with the idea of creating a single central body for entrepreneur support, with centres established around Wales.
• The Welsh Government should explain precisely why funding for Young Enterprise was withdrawn.
• More networking and mentoring between entrepreneurs themselves, and sharing good practice between the existing regional support hubs.

Welsh start-ups

Traditional barriers to entrepreneurship are breaking down, with a
majority of early-stage start ups in Wales led by young women.
(Pic : Wales Online)

The Welsh Government have numerous support schemes for business start-ups, mostly as part of its Youth Entrepreneurship Strategy 2010-15 (YES), which covers 5-25y.os. YES includes grants and bursaries (up to £6,000), six regional hubs, a network of 385 business role models and Big Ideas Wales - all backed by £4.4million in central funding.

There's plenty of good news:

• Early-stage entrepreneurship rates amongst 18-24s are the highest of the UK nations (10.2%).
• 52% of 18-24s had an aspiration to "work for themselves".
• 9.6% of all UK graduate start-ups, and 10% of those surviving for at least 3 years, are in Wales.
• 53% of FE Colleges say they encourage students "to think about enterprise".
• Female entrepreneurship rates are higher than the UK (6.1% v 5%) and a majority of early stage start-ups (60%) are from women.

In terms of the bad news, there's little conversion of business idea to business reality – Wales had just 42 start-ups per 10,000 people compared to 64 across the UK.

The Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) said those studying business at university and college are "cautious" and "lack ideas and originality", spending too much time working on presentations. Their companies subsequently tend to play it safe. Alacrity Foundation's Steve Gibson said young people are more risk averse – choosing a safe career over entrepreneurship – probably because of high student debts.

It was hard to determine the effectiveness of Welsh Government initiatives because it was unclear if positive outcomes came as a result of their interventions. Deputy Minister for Skills & Technology, Ken Skates (Lab, Clwyd South), said the Welsh Government were looking into ways to properly track the progress of young entrepreneurs.

The Entrepreneurial Spirit

Although profit is clearly important, it's believed that the idea of entrepreneurship
should be based around "well-rounded people helping their communities".
(Pic : Wales Online)

After taking evidence from organisations around the country - including a Flintshire Enterprise Group - the committee believed they needed to take a wide-view of "entrepreneurship", as many people often started successful businesses in areas like music and culture, not just high-tech industries. Entrepreneurship should be viewed as "well-rounded young people going out and making a difference in their communities".

Ken Skates agreed, but highlighted specific cultural barriers - such as attitudes towards business itself and gender.

However, having no family history of entrepreneurship was no longer the barrier it once was, with entrepreneurs coming from more diverse backgrounds, often "channelled into the entrepreneurial direction" by teachers and mentors. Gender was no longer cited as a significant barrier either, with Alacrity Foundation saying their schemes had a 50:50 gender split, though there were fewer women "high-tech graduates".

In terms of pitfalls, comparisons are made with the USA, where entrepreneurs are hailed as "champions" if they succeed only once after multiple failures. Here, if you fail once as an entrepreneur you rarely get a second chance. One entrepreneur said they were told to "get a proper job" when starting out, and when they made a success of themselves, were told "it's alright for some." Welcome to Wales.

Perhaps the most widely-publicised evidence came from Masterchef finalist, and director of Yolk Recruitment, Dale Williams, who highlighted how important it was to make connections with people and give a good impression in order to build up your own confidence.

In terms of the wider economy, Neath Port Talbot Council said "being your own boss" is a viable way out of youth unemployment – the figures of which in some parts of Wales, including Bridgend, are scandalous. FSB, however, note their sadness at people saying they were "forced into self-employment" as a result of the Great Recession as if it were a bad thing.

Business & Economy Minister, Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower) noted the Prince's Trust work with the young unemployed and highlighted their role in both helping start-ups and reaching people the government often can't reach.

Enterprise in Education

The importance to teaching practical skills with regard entrepreneurship
was highlighted, along with general enterprise education in the curriculum.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Many witnesses laid out the importance of enterprise in the school curriculum, but provision was said to be mixed. The FSB argued that traditional "climb the career ladder" thinking often prevails in schools, while UnLtd said there's plenty of examples of good practice elsewhere. Dale Williams argued against working with primary-age children though, instead saying 14-18yos are best targeted as that's the period in life where career and university options at at the forefront of people's minds.

Many witnesses raised concerns about a "lack of practical training" – things like sales, marketing, intellectual property and managing taxes.

At university and college level, there's plenty of support, with University of South Wales saying 65% of their students received some form on entrepreneurial training as part of their studies. It was suggested that universities needed to do more to nurture on-campus businesses, including "business incubators" which could include empty high-street shops (I've suggested industrial estates in the past).

When it comes to social enterprises, witnesses said enterprise shouldn't be taught/seen as exclusively about profit, inspired by TV shows like Dragons' Den and The Apprentice. UnLtd and Young Enterprise say they instill a sense of social and community responsibility in the young people they work with, so they "reinvest in their communities" (for more ideas on this, see The Collective Entrepreneur).

It might also be worth visiting this as part of Bethan Jenkins AM's (Plaid, South Wales West) proposed Financial Education law.

Confusion, Careers Advice & Young Enterprise

There were serious concerns about a "lack of clarity" on the options available, with suggestions there needed to be a single organisation people knew exactly where to to turn to for money and advice.

In those terms, could that form part of the functions of the Development Bank of Wales mooted by Prof. Jones-Evans earlier this week (and Plaid Cymru previously)?

Careers Wales are responsible for delivering the YES scheme, and since April have been absorbed into the Welsh Government itself. However, because of changes in its remit – and £6million cuts to its operating budget - Careers Wales no longer directly funds things like Young Enterprise, which Young Enterprise say in their own words "puts them at risk".

Ken Skates said it was down to Young Enterprise to "prove its value within the marketplace" because there were plenty of other providers. The committee questioned the rationale for this line of thinking, and want clarification of the assessments carried out to determine the decision.

Funding, Mentoring & Support

Once again, support is confusing, with a "menu of options". There are also problems with eligibility for various schemes, with an example given from the Prince's Trust where Work Programme participants couldn't transfer to their Enterprise Programme because they (Prince's Trust) lack a Work Programme sub-contractor agreement and, subsequently, couldn't receive funding.

It's said access to initial capital isn't much of an issue, but there were problems with continued/ongoing support. Cardiff University argued for a tiered system of support because requirements to access some start-up funding were "unrealistic" (£80,000 turnover in first year, with 20% year-on-year growth for the Graduate Start-up Bursary).

Witnesses couldn't decide if location was a big factor in entrepreneurship. The Welsh Government, however, did say there was "geographical inconsistency" in support.

YES established six regional entrepreneurship hubs based at universities and colleges. Colleges/universities were said to be "enthusiastic" about the hubs, and despite a "steep learning curve", were eager to help young entrepreneurs. The committee were said to be "impressed by the potential", suggesting it could form a key part of the one-stop shop model mentioned throughout the inquiry.

Direct mentoring was said to be just as important as getting the right finance. Alacrity Foundation has around 50 mentors, while school projects often invite successful alumni back to teach others. Dale Williams said personal support is often more difficult to find than financial support, suggesting that mentoring could be difficult for business people because of their own time commitments, and mentors could be unwilling to give their time for free.

Conclusion : Time for some joined-up thinking

They've done it again!

Business & Enterprise is fast becoming my favourite committee (if such a thing can possibly exist).

I've sometimes thought about starting my own business, and I've known people who've started their own business – including family members. The array of support out there is welcome, but confusing. I think it's correct to say that there's risk aversion amongst young people too, as the penalties for a business failure can be very harsh and sometimes stay with you for the rest of your life.

On the whole though, there's a lot to be optimistic about. So the Welsh Government – past and present – deserve some credit for actions they're taking or have previously taken.

The troubles seem to be the format. That could be rectified with a bit of thought and a bit of joined-up thinking so we don't end up coming back to this with the same problems again and again.

Some sort of one stop shop appears to be vital, and – as I said – any "Bank of Wales" could be perfect for that. I've also mentioned the Financial Education Bill, which could include provisions relating to enterprise education and business advice for children and young adults. I'm sure there are plenty of ways to streamline the sheer number of schemes available as well, or at least market them better.

Wales, perhaps contrary to stereotypes, has a very entrepreneurial mindset it seems. It's just not a country 100% suitable for entrepreneurs at present. The goodwill is there, and I'm confident with the right sorts of policies enacted at the right age, that can change and rather quickly too.

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Census 2011 : Demographics II - Its meaning for Wales

What are the possible consequences of an ageing population?
(Pic : The Guardian)

• Census 2011 : What's stunting Welsh?
• Census 2011 : Losing our religion?
• Census 2011 : National Identity & Ethnicity
• Census 2011 : Disability, Carers & Health
• Census 2011 : Qualifications
• Census 2011 : Demographics I – How old is Wales?

Firstly, I forgot to include the data I used yesterday (2001, 2011).

Following on from yesterday's post, I'm going to look at some of the possible implications of the demographic/age changes in more detail. But to summarise – for those of you who can't be bothered to sift through the last post:

• Wales' mean age was 40.6, median 41 – second highest of the regions of EnglandandWales.
• 18.3% of Wales' population in 2011 was aged 65+ - a rise of 0.9% on 2001 – with much higher levels in rural central and northern Wales.
• 45.2% of Welsh residents were aged between 30-64 – a fall of 2.3% on 2001.
• The percentage of school age children fell by 3.4% nationally, but there was no change with regard pre-school children (0-4 y.o.).
• The percentage of young adults (18-29) rose by 1.8% on 2001, seeing bigger rises in urban areas of Wales, with the notable exception of Ceredigion.

Impact on the Welsh language

Back in January, I posted my musings on the fall in Welsh speakers. I made several guesses as to why that happened.

Firstly, the mortality and migration issues. Y Fro – Anglesey aside - isn't as old as I was expecting. However, all 4 Y Fro counties do have above-average levels of pensioners, and they've also seen some of the biggest increases in pensionable populations since 2001 – again, in particular Anglesey.

When you cross-reference this with the falls in Welsh speakers, I think this will have had an impact in Ceredigion and possibly Carmarthenshire, but less so in Anglesey or Gwynedd. The latter two didn't see as sharp a drop in Welsh-speakers as the southern half of Y Fro. So I think mortality at least – an older population, including a fair chunk of Welsh speakers, dying naturally - is just one small bit player in a complicated set of circumstances.

It's hard to tell whether "elderly migration" had a similar impact. As far I can tell, the figures aren't broken down by age. I suspect it will have, especially if those migrating aren't Welsh-speakers. But as I pointed out then, significant numbers of migrants to Y Fro are from other Welsh local authorities – especially into Ceredigion – while English migration isn't as pronounced compared to European immigration or those from further afield.

When you look at the rise in "young adults" in Ceredigion alone, I was probably right to include the expansion of university education – and an increased in-migration of non Welsh-speaking 18-21 year olds – as a possible factor.

There's clearly a shift towards the young in terms of Welsh speakers overall. But
will falls in  numbers of school age children in Y Fro cause problems when
planning Welsh-medium school  places in the future? As well as impact
the number of Welsh speaker nationally.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

One thing I did say, was that there was cause to be upbeat because of a clear, positive "demographic shift" towards the young in terms of numbers and percentage of Welsh-speakers. Blog Menai has also pointed out that amongst the over-20s, Welsh speakers are on average younger than non-Welsh speakers. However, viewing this in itself as a possible saviour of the Welsh language might be a little over-optimistic.

Ceredigion already had one of the lowest percentages of school age children, and it's quite likely that in 2021, school age children might fall into a single figure percentage of the Ceredigion population. Gwynedd and Anglesey also have fairly "low" percentages of school-age children resident. Although there's a definite demographic "bulge", with Welsh-speakers overall becoming younger, in terms of strength in numbers it's unlikely to make that much of a difference.

There'll be more Welsh-speaking young people (under 30s) in 20-30 years time for sure – perhaps 30%+ of the population even outside Y Fro.  But they're still going to be outnumbered by pensioners in terms of sheer numbers. Quite a few of them are likely to leave and bring up children elsewhere. So as much as shoring up the heartland is important, it's equally important to meet demand for Welsh-medium education elsewhere in Wales too.

So my guess is the physical number of Welsh speakers will go up nationally. But if that doesn't exceed the pace of general population growth - topped up by non-Welsh speaking elderly migrants - then Welsh speakers as a percentage of the population will stagnate or continue a slow decline  (inside and outside Y Fro) or struggle to breach 20% of the Welsh population.

But it's worth pointing out that demographic projections aren't an exact science and tend to "wobble" quite often.

Impact on the economy

The main factor here is the "productive population" - the numbers of working age people with jobs, generating wealth measured as gross value added (GVA).

GVA is divided amongst the total population to get headline GVA per capita figures. That means pensioners, temporary and long-term unemployed or disabled and school age children are included - not just the "working" working age population.

GVA is rural areas is low anyway. That's perhaps because sectors like agriculture and tourism don't generate as much for the economy as a whole compared to financial services or manufacturing - the latter two generally based in urban areas and city regions.

In parts of Wales with higher numbers of disabled people, pensioners, or higher numbers of those in full-time study too (in the case of Gwynedd and Ceredigion) - the "productive population" is going to be significantly lower than somewhere like Cardiff. Therefore, an already weak GVA is divided by more (statistically) "unproductive" heads, producing weaker GVA per capita figures that it perhaps otherwise should be.

So there's probably a warning that, although GVA is useful in measuring economic strength, it isn't the be all and end all of an economic story on the ground.

Impact on key public services

The main issue here as I see it is the dependency ratio. Dependency ratios measure the relative demographic "burden" placed on an area's working age population by those outside the labour market (children and pensioners). You can have separate child dependency ratios and old dependency ratios too.

The higher the dependency ratio, the more a government has to spend or provide things like education, pensions and social services for children and the elderly. It's fair to point out though that some pensioners might still be in the labour market, and the retirement age is rising to 66 by 2020.

It's calculated to international standards by:

• The number of full-time school children (defined as 0-15 by international measures) and pensioners (65+) added together
• Divided by the working age population (15-64)
• Times by 100

Dependency ratios nationally and in each local authority in 2011
(Click to enlarge)

In Wales, the dependency ratio is at 54.6, compared to 51 for the UK as a whole. That means Wales bares a slightly higher "burden" of dependents than the rest of the UK. We probably knew that anyway.

However, at individual local authority level, some of the figures are jaw-dropping. Five local authorities have a dependency ratio above 60.

Old age dependency ratios are perhaps more important here, as they're usually out of the workforce permanently and place a greater relative burden on health and personal social services, whilst school-age children will eventually join the workforce.

Some Welsh local authorities currently have levels of old age dependency that the UK as a whole isn't expecting to see until the 2050s! (30-40) And all of them are in the "West Wales & The Valleys" EU region. Remember what I said about GVA figures earlier. Is it any wonder why the Welsh economy struggles if these are the sorts of numbers bandied about?

With the old age dependency ratio in Wales increasing, who's
going to pay for all the extra elderly in the future? Will people
my age have to work for significantly longer than current pensioners?
(Pic : The Guardian)

Wales, as a whole, has an old age dependency ratio of 28.4. So there's roughly 3 working age people for every 1 pensioner. In some Welsh authorities, it's already lower than that that.

That doesn't necessarily mean there'll be strain on things like social services and health, as long as people have a long healthy life expectancy so they don't need to rely on those things in the first place.

If we don't live healthier lives in old age, then it'll t means we'll need to consider immigration of 16-40 year olds to work, pay tax and support pensioners; as well as a higher birth rate – especially in rural Wales - to provide more sustainable levels of working age people down the line.

It's also significantly more expensive to provide services in sparsely-populated rural areas than urban areas for a whole host of reasons. It will probably be better (for the state) for the elderly to live somewhere like Cardiff compared to Conwy. But peace and quiet is something retired people might want. We either need to either quietly discourage that, or come up with ways to live with it.

When you factor in things like a higher relative percentage of working age people with disabilities too – who aren't counted as dependents, but who don't work - there are still major challenges facing parts of Wales.
Impact on politics

It's unclear. The number of pensioners hasn't massively changed nationally since 2001, but in individual constituencies and regions, the numbers of pensioners could have an impact on politics locally.

It's anecdotal evidence, but older people are generally more conservative, more eurosceptic and in Y Fro neither likely or unlikely to speak Welsh as well as being cultural nationalists (both Welsh and "British"). They also turn out more at election time.

Another thing that the figures highlight is that 40-70 year olds are too dominant in politics at all levels in Wales. Maybe that's for good reason, because people want to elect someone with "life experience". Perhaps now you can see why those aged under 30 are switching off from politics altogether, or more interested in taking up single-issue causes/activism as opposed to institutions like local councils, the Assembly,  Westminster and the European Parliament.

There's a massive risk of creating a generation gap in Welsh politics that will be hard to close because young people will never become interested in mainstream party politics in the first place. It's entirely plausible that political parties in Wales will struggle to recruit new members and candidates in the long-term, because politics has effectively turned its back on an entire generation.

There are numerous examples proving younger people can be elected to office at all levels. But having one or two "token" young politicians in local government, or putting them in the ghetto of student/"yoof" politics, doesn't cut it if politics wants to be representative.

For example, based on the census figures, the Assembly should currently have at least 9 AMs aged between 18-29 and 10-11AMs aged over 65. Though they're not far off the latter, they fall way, way short of the former.

Unfortunate implications in The Valleys

The general "youth" in the valleys could be down to at least two factors.

The first one is shorter life expectancies than the rest of Wales, dragging average ages – especially means – downwards.

The second one could be a result of people having children younger, including teenage pregnancies. This means that the percentages of young adults and school age children are boosted, as there would have been more young adults and 15-16 year olds having children than the Welsh average over the census period – though the numbers of teenage pregnancies are falling.

Now, teenage pregnancies aren't a "good thing". However, in the long-term it could help keep old age dependency ratios in the Valleys at a more sustainable level, but that'll only work if the economy improves. Those kids being born to younger parents will need to be well brought up, well-educated and have decent jobs waiting for them when they're older.

How can we keep Wales "young"?


I don't know what a "good" old age dependency ratio would be, but I'd guess we should aim to get it down towards 20% nationally, allowing a bit of variation between local authorities.

First and foremost – boost the birth rate. However, it's nowhere near as easy as that, as having children is dependent on a whole host of other things.

Do we need to place less emphasis on owning property
as an investment? Do we need to come up with ways to build homes
cheaply and retain younger families?
(Pic : prefabs.com)

There's the issues of housing and housing costs in general. We should probably not place as much emphasis on homes as an investment, as well as encouraging long-term renting and perhaps see a sustained, managed decline in house prices. One way to do that would be to increase supply, and I've covered that before. We need to build more starter homes, and those homes have to be affordable, perhaps using innovative methods of construction.


Next, there's the question of tackling under-employment. We need better paid and higher-value added jobs, particularly in rural parts of Wales, to prevent young adults and those in their 30s-40s from migrating away, leaving only the old - a ticking time bomb with regard key public services. Expanding apprenticeships and providing large numbers of low-paying, low-skilled jobs is fine as a stop gap, but there needs to be something better too, so young families can actually establish themselves.

Retaining graduates – especially home grown ones - once they've graduated is linked to the above. It doesn't seem to be too much of a problem in places like Cardiff. However, if you stem the "brain drain" across Wales, it might convince employers and companies that they can set up higher-value added enterprises, which means better jobs, more money in the local economy and hopefully, eventually lead to more children.

How does Wales retain graduates from Welsh universities?
More importantly, how do we convince employers that we have
the right skill set in the first place?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

New communities designed from the outset to be family-friendly, as well as family-friendly working practises, would also go some way as to encourage a higher birth rate. The valleys, from an objective perspective, are in many cases ideal to bring up young children. We should make more of that, but that means getting to grips with some of the long-standing problems too. That'll mean a lot more than third sector "projects" and housing renewals.

I also mentioned earlier "positive discouragement" with regard elderly people moving to rural Wales, and instead moving to urban parts of Wales to spread the older population out a bit more. By "positive discouragement" I mean doing things that might benefit a rural community as a whole, but put people off "seeking peace and quiet" : windfarms and energy projects, black metal festivals next to nursing homes, active agriculture (with all the noise and smells), planned expansion of larger rural towns, dogging, business parks, road improvements etc.

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