AMs press for "decisive action" on Bovine TB

(Pic : The Guardian)

The issue of precisely how to deal with Bovine tuberculosis is one of the longest-running sagas in post-devolution Wales, and something that has become a serious threat to the livelihoods of dairy and beef farmers, even if they're compensated for the loss of livestock.

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Why was the Commonwealth Games bid ditched?

Not coming to a town or city near you....
(Pic : ITV Wales)

Towards the end of July, Economy & Infrastructure Secretary, Ken Skates (Lab, Clwyd South), announced that a speculative Welsh bid to host the 2026 Commonwealth Games would not go ahead following a feasibility study - a 12-page summary of which was released on July 26^th (pdf).

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Downloading (22% - 2 years left)....

With the Wales Audit Office recently giving Superfast Cymru a thumbs up,
the minister in charge provided an update to AMs on progress to date.
(Pic : recombu.com)

The Superfast Cymru scheme is a £425million partnership between BT and the Welsh Government which aims to provide high-speed broadband (generally defined as somewhere between 20-50 Megabits/second) to every home and business in Wales – particularly those in hard to reach areas.

Good internet connections have become an everyday necessity regardless of where you live, while for rural businesses in particular – who often endure poor mobile and internet connections - it's essential, especially as farming payments have increasingly moved to online-only management (see also : The Green, Green Glas of Home).

In general terms, the scheme focuses on upgrading, or installing new, green BT roadside cabinets with fibre optics connections to telephone exchanges. Fibre optic cables enable much faster download speeds and can carry more information as signals are sent as pulses of light. They're also less susceptible to environmental damage.

Yesterday, Deputy Minster for Skills & Technology, Julie James (Lab, Swansea West) updated the National Assembly on progress being made by the programme.

The Deputy Minister started by saying the scheme meant Wales was moving into a position where every business and home has access to superfast broadband, as outlined in the Programme for Government (clip) - the aim of the scheme being to bring high-speed broadband to areas where the market wouldn't go. With it crucial to becoming a "truly digital nation", a big push is needed to reach the last 3-4% of premises. This includes using mobile technology like 4G, and a new scheme based on this will be launched later this year.

Without intervention, it's said 480,000 premises wouldn't have access to superfast broadband. With 79% of Welsh homes and businesses having access so far, Wales is ahead of the EU average. The scheme has created 250 jobs and provided a number of apprenticeships and work experience placements, while the Wales Audit Office (WAO) have said Superfast Cymru is making "reasonable progress".

The Superfast Cymru website will be revamped to give residents more certainty on when they would be connected. Plus, the contract has been extended to June 2017, with additional public funding of of £19million, in order to target an extra ~45,000 premises (and specifically 2,500 businesses). Swansea is also being used by BT as a testbed for 500Mbits/second ultra-fast broadband (G. fast).

There was a need to ensure people take up superfast broadband. So far, 22% of customers have taken it up within a year of it being available - the highest take-up rate in the UK. The target is for 50% take-up by 2024. Claw back agreements mean that once the scheme breaks even, the Welsh Government get some extra money back.

Shadow Economy Minister, William Graham (Con, South Wales East), said significant problems remain – mentioning issues on Deeside enterprise zone specifically (clip) - though the project demonstrates effective public-private cooperation. He hoped there was no complacency as Wales is likely to be ahead of other countries for only a short period of time, with a number of "not spots" remaining, including in around Cardiff, citing an example of a business leasing a line for broadband at a cost of £20,000.

The Deputy Minister said Wales was second only to Cornwall in take-up though roll-out has been faster than the rest of the UK. She acknowledged difficulties, suggesting alternative technologies could address problems on Deeside. Superfast Cymru only covers areas which are commercially unviable, and it won't be until the end of the programme that those involved will be able to see if something can be done for "not spots" in commercially viable areas like Cardiff.

Plaid Cymru economy spokesperson, Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid, Ynys Môn), said it was right to aim for universal roll-out to ease the transition into a digital economy (clip). He suggests his constituents would be surprised by the WAO's positive assessment as they, and other rural areas, wait for upgrades. He asked : Could 4G services be brought into Superfast Cymru instead of relying on mobile companies? Whether the extension to 2017 includes the whole scheme or just the 45,000 additional premises? We should aim for greater take-up than 50%, but is there a danger Wales could lag behind once faster broadband speed benchmarks are set?

The Deputy Minister said the additional premises wouldn't disrupt other parts of the programme. 4G is being looked at, as well as other technologies, to produce superfast speeds. She accepted the point on take-up, but Wales was doing well compared to other countries.

David Rees AM (Lab, Aberavon) stressed the importance of delivering broadband to businesses, with particular concerns over business parks in his area (clip), especially those which are surrounded by residential areas eligible for Superfast Cymru but are themselves being left out. He asked what speeds people can expect and whether the new infrastructure can deliver 500Mbit/s in the future? Also, which ISPs provide superfast broadband to ensure businesses have a choice?

The Deputy Minister explained the business park situation by saying that because EU funds are being used, a "market failure" has to be proven to justify state intervention, so that's why business parks are last in the queue not first. On speeds, there's a floor of 28Mbit/s but businesses can pay extra for faster speeds. Superfast Cymru is being delivered as wholesale with individual ISPs providing services (in the same way as energy companies).

It's not just rural areas suffering from poor broadband speeds. Some parts of Cardiff just a
stone's throw from the Assembly are "not spots" but are ineligible for Superfast Cymru.
(Pic : The Guardian)

Eluned Parrott AM (Lib Dem, South Wales Central) said the programme was a lot like "trying to hit a moving target" as things change quickly and it needs to be future-proofed (clip). Eluned suggested that mobile technology might not be suitable due to poor mobile coverage in parts of Wales, as well as planning issues surrounding mobile phone masts. She added that parts of Cardiff, including her own regional office in Roath, have connection issues meaning her staff are "devastated" that they can't watch her on Senedd TV. One other issue raised was the fact many new-build estates aren't covered by Superfast Cymru because despite the lines being installed, BT's broadband department haven't been told and don't realise the new homes exist.

Julie said future-proofing was one of the reasons for the claw back agreement so BT and the Welsh Government can keep re-investing. Following meetings with mobile operators, she expects widespread 4G coverage "within the next couple of years", though planning issues are very complicated and need discussions with the UK Government. She finished by saying that BT aren't the only company rolling out infrastructure improvements as there are other commercial operators – like Virgin Media - doing so too.

Russell George AM (Con, Montgomery) asked two questions (clip) : why information on specific premises falling outside the scope of Superfast Cymru wasn't available? And what the budget was to market superfast broadband? Julie explained that information was based on postcodes, not individual addresses, and £1.5million was available for marketing.

Elin Jones AM (Plaid, Ceredigion) said "no other issue causes as much frustration in Ceredigion" than poor broadband (clip). She was pleased the website was being updated, but wanted to know if premises in her constituency would be updated by 2016, or whether they would be part of the additional 45,000 premises set to be upgraded by 2017?

The Deputy Minister said 41.35% of premises have been completed in Ceredigion, so BT weren't even halfway yet. The website would be updated to include accurate information based on distance from cabinets.

As a former Deputy Minister for Skills & Technology, Jeff Cuthbert AM (Lab, Caerphilly) said he was familiar with the problems (clip), such as trying to locate cabinets in urban areas. He asked for confirmation that "disadvantaged communities aren't overlooked" by the scheme?

Julie said a successor to the Communities 2.0 programme is up and running, and the Welsh Government were working to ensure no communities are left out.

Kirsty Williams AM (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor), wanted to ensure the information (clip) on the website is "useful" as she's struggled to get answers on from BT on behalf of constituents, but in particular Dan yr Ogof Showcaves, who developed an app on the presumption that broadband would be available this year, but will be delayed until 2016. She also said cabinet upgrades had led to poorer internet speeds in some areas.

The Deputy Minister pledged to look into problems as a worse performance was certainly not intended. She agreed on the need for useful information, and as the scheme progresses it's becoming easier to provide information based on distance from a cabinet. Julie added that BT sometimes had to deal with situations beyond their control and can't always give accurate timescales for broadband upgrades. However, she's asked BT to be more specific when telling the public about difficulties they're having (i.e planning delays).

Janet Finch-Saunders AM (Con, Aberconwy) asked what steps were being taken to consult with the community, citing an example where residents in Dolwyddelan (clip) were quoted £2,000 by BT to move a new cabinet to another location as it was close to community planters and chapel gates. The Deputy Minister said she couldn't comment on individual cases.

Finally, Mark Isherwood AM (Con, North Wales) asked (clip) about superfast broadband for rural schools and whether rural schools are a priority, to which the Deputy Minister said primary schools aren't part of Superfast Cymru but a separate programme.

Will widespread instrastructure upgrades lead to better offers for consumers?
(Pic : recombu.com)

Superfast Cymru isn't without critics – in particular the Pirate Party (Pirate Party : Hoising the Jolly Roger above Wales), who've criticised the technology and high prices of superfast services.

Broadly-speaking I'd say it's a good idea, though I'd share concerns over whether this will be outdated 10-15 years down the line when, presumably, G.fast becomes the norm. The clawback agreement is, therefore, a sensible part of the scheme.

The issue is take-up. 22% doesn't sound that impressive on the face of it (though I was actually surprised it's that high). Households and businesses have to actually sign up to the superfast (often advertised as "fibre") services which come at a premium, sometimes being three times more expensive than cable broadband, the latter of which might come free with a subscription media package.

Hopefully once the infrastructure is in place the ISP subscription costs will come down, and I'm going to presume cost and usage limits are currently the biggest barrier to take-up.

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Back to the Future

"If my calculations are correct, when this baby hits 8 counties you're going to see some serious shit."

Today's post was originally going to be on the annual Programme of Government report, but due to a "dramatic" turn of events on local government reform I'll have to post it another time. There's a lot to get through.

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Tawel Fan : Betsi Cadwaladr's Shame

Little Ward of Horrors.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Just so you've been warned, the following makes for depressing reading.

Within the last week, a catalogue of serious care failings were revealed in a damning report into the Tawel Fan mental health ward at Denbighshire's Glan Clwyd Hospital, which specialised in "care" for elderly patients with dementia. The ward closed in December 2013 as soon as the seriousness of the allegations became clear, and there are echos with what happened at the Princess of Wales and Neath Port Talbot Hospitals (Abertawe Bro Morgannwg : Trusted to Care?).

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Westminster 2015 : The Welsh Battlegrounds

Which Welsh seats are going to be keenly-fought over?
(Pic : BBC)

As we're now into the last fortnight of the 2015 election campaign, it's time to take a closer look at where in Wales the fight for votes might be keenest, and which seats might be more likely to change hands.

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And then there were four?

Implementing the Williams Commission local government reforms will be one of the stories dominating the rest of the Fourth Assembly, and will play a big role in determining if the Welsh Government have truly delivered this term.

Back in June, the former Local Government Minister, Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham), said that the proposed reforms "had to deliver profound change". The First Minister himself has spoken quite strongly in favour of mergers (down to between 10 and 12 councils from the current 22) as soon as practically possible.

It's clear though that with a few exceptions – like Denbighsire and Conwy, which are actively exploring a voluntary merger – the proposals have received a frosty reception from the Welsh local government sector. Clearly one of the major concerns are the proposed upfront costs of the reforms; the Williams Commission put the figure at £100million (saving £60-80million per year afterwards), local government put it at £200million with a potential 15,000 job losses.

The Welsh Local Government Association (WLGA) – the body that represents local authorities – recently upped the ante by producing their own discussion paper (pdf) and alternative plan.

What are the WLGA's concerns?

Firstly, that there's no political consensus on the way forward in the Assembly, and with up to £877million in savings needing to be found in total by 2018, an £80million per year saving is described as being "academic".

Secondly, they're worried there'll be a disconnect between the local and the regional. Some of the proposed new local authorities may be too large to provide smaller communities with a "connection" but too small to provide scale.

The Williams Commission weren't convinced by collaboration between local authorities. However, WLGA present evidence submitted by former adviser to Rhodri Morgan, Paul Griffiths, suggesting that it works for some local services (social care, school improvement), and that the threat of "collaborate or merge" has created a presumption in local government that mergers are inevitable, so collaboration was never properly explored.

The English Example

The WLGA cite the example of the Greater Manchester Authority (GMCA). It's a collaborative regional authority made up of ten metropolitan borough councils. Each member authority sends one member to the GMCA, contributes towards its running costs and the GMCA takes responsibility and control of the Greater Manchester Integrated Transport Authority, as well as specific powers over things like economic development.

In Wales, we're attempting something similar through city regions. However, our city regions are essentially grand committees with no real teeth.

In England, the UK Government have proposed devolving "serious powers" over economic development, strategic planning, business rates collection, housing and training to the major cities and groups of counties. Both UK Labour and Conservatives are talking this up as a model of English devolution.

What do the WLGA propose for Wales?

A presumptive map of what the WLGA propose.
(Click to enlarge)

The WLGA propose the creation of four collaborative regional bodies :

• North Wales
• Mid & Central Wales (sic)
• South West Wales
• South East Wales

The map is presumptive and the WLGA don't specifically state which local authorities would be placed where. It's based off the collaborative boards the WLGA proposed back in 2005 and also pretty much falls in line with the regional transport consortia.

The WLGA propose that the regional bodies take responsibility for :

• Transport planning and delivery
• Strategic land use planning
• Economic development
• Regional tourism promotion
• School improvement
• Commissioning of health and social care services
• Waste processing and management
• IT services, payroll, pensions and back office/HR functions

They also propose that - supported by comments made by Prof. Gerald Holtham - taxes like stamp duty and landfill tax be "devolved" to these regional bodies.

They believe this would offer greater financial security for these services, a more strategic approach to service delivery and greater scale. The WLGA do, however, accept that redundancies would be inevitable but no figures are given. No figures for the set up costs are given either.

New primary legislation might be required from the National Assembly to make this happen. Or, the appropriate Welsh Minister might be able to make use of current executive powers to push the proposal through. In both cases it would likely require full Assembly approval.

When you get to the bits about how these regional would be governed, things begin to fall apart.

Based on the examples they give from England, the membership won't be elected, but appointed by the constituent local authorities. Some regional bodies in England include non-elected members, some have a "rotation" of appointed members, some have a membership that reflects the political make-up of the respective local authorities. So it'll be another board and committee for our wonderful local councillors to join.

A real alternative?

They say a good compromise is one that dissatisfies everyone equally.
Are the Welsh Government going to listen to this, though?
(Pic : Click on Wales)

With the appointment of Leighton Andrews as the new minister with responsibility for local government, I don't see the Welsh Government changing tact. The mergers are going to be pushed through whether the WLGA like it or not.

I've said it previously, but I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with a further compromise that leads to some local authorities remaining as-is - I don't think the 10-12 number is set in stone. Some mergers will clearly be easier to do than others, while some local authorities might have a different preferred merger partner than those outlined by the Williams Commission (Bridgend and Vale of Glamorgan; Swansea & Neath Port Talbot etc.).

Also, *AWOOGA*  THIS SOUNDS OH SO FAMILIAR!   *AWOOGA*  I'm only 18 months ahead of the curve here, but I'm just a blogger after all.

Of course, it's not identical to what I (and Lyn Thomas previously) have said. I envisaged regional government being a tier of government in itself – an unashamed return to two-tier local government.

This proposal is half-way there, makes a moderate amount of sense, and deserves to be considered and listened to. It might be too late though.

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Does Wales make the most of EU opportunities?

                            

It's been a while. There've been many changes. Nick Ramsey has no doubt been stumbling through the Ty Hywel corridors to Every Rose Has Its Thorn.

However, I couldn't resist returning to the rock stars of the Assembly Committee world – Business & Enterprise – and their inquiry report into EU funding opportunities from 2014-2020, which was launched at Cardiff's Chapter Arts Centre last week (pdf).

A lot of this work overlaps with the Constitutional & Legislative Affairs Committee inquiry into the Welsh role in EU decision-making.While that inquiry focused on the political and constitutional situation, this one was more focused on the economic, cultural and financial side of things.

The one thing you can take from both inquiries is the need for a clear strategy on Welsh involvement with the EU. It's a point raised before, but Scotland and the Republic of Ireland have a "more joined up approach" than we do. Meanwhile, concerns that EU funds in Wales have been misused, or Wales being constantly "left off the map", mean a revision of the Welsh Government's EU strategy is long overdue – something Finance Minister Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan) is considering.

There were 16 recommendations in total, summarised as :

• Ensuring any future EU strategy (Wales in Europe : What role do we play?) sets clear objectives and maximises Welsh involvement in EU programmes.
• Developing tailored support; including the creation of an EU Funding Champion, a central contact point for EU funds and specialist support for the youth, transport and education sectors.
• Addressing gaps in Welsh representation in Brussels (also raised in the Welsh EU role inquiry)
• Setting clear objectives for Welsh universities to promote both studying abroad and  language courses as well as creating an alumnus of international students.
• Local Government should develop their own action plans to make best use of EU funds.
• Champion the Welsh creative sector in Europe, ensuring they're not disadvantaged in applying for EU funding because of the UK's strong TV industry.
• Develop a closer working relationship with DG Move and TEN-T executives in Brussels - as well as the Irish – to ensure Wales gets the most out of pan-EU transport programmes.

EU Programmes – What are they?

When discussing "EU Programmes" in Wales, you'll automatically think "Objective One" (Structural Funds) or the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). There are, however, EU schemes that cover other activities and sectors worth up to €42billion. The inquiry focused on how Wales engages with these programmes and what can be done to ensure we get the most out of them.

These programmes include :

• Erasmus+ (€14.7bn)
• Connecting Europe/Trans-European Transport Networks (TEN-T) (€15bn)
• Regional Cooperation (INTERREG) (€8.7bn)
• Creative Europe (€1.46bn)
• Competitiveness of Small & Medium Sized Companies (COSME) (€2.03bn)

There's also the Horizon 2020 scheme which covers science and technology, but this wasn't within the inquiry's remit.

Welsh engagement with EU programmes

The EU Commission's Creative Europe programme helped fund Y Gwyll, but there were
concerns that the strength of the UK's media sector may disadvantage Wales.
(Pic : The Guardian)

Although Wales engages with many of these programmes – like INTERREG, Creative Europe and some of the education programmes - a recurring theme is that the high priority and narrow focus given to structural funds (Objective One and CAP) has limited Welsh involvement elsewhere.

There are specialist European officers in local government and higher education – often with a presence in Brussels – but there's nothing similar for the youth, private and voluntary sectors. The benefits from participating in these programmes are potentially huge and such groups may be missing out unnecessarily.

In the Welsh Government's evidence they say some programmes are easier to work with and win funding from than others, so they often had to target their resources carefully. They intend to review how they interact with the EU, but with no set timetable. This led to the Committee supporting previous calls for a full EU Strategy, citing the Irish and Danish governments own successful strategies.

It was said Wales isn't "as switched on" as other countries, with an example given of one academic who was working with the INTERREG programme having no contact whatsoever with the Wales European Funding Office (WEFO). There was also a lack of proper communication with businesses, with calls for a "clear contact point" based outside Wales for foreign companies looking to work with Welsh partners.

There was a specific focus on the creative industries sector, and the EU programme Creative Europe. The EU Commission's media programme "provides support for film productions from pre-production through to distribution, primarily in the form of direct grants to companies and organisations". This scheme provided support towards the production of Y Gwyll/Hinterland.

Media Antenna Wales – part of the Welsh Government's creative industries team – provides support to companies and producers seeking to work with Creative Europe, often helping them negotiate the bureaucracy and form-filling that comes with EU programmes. This level of specialist support was praised and said to be something to emulate in other sectors.

There was, however, a worry that because the UK has a "strong audio-visual industry" overall, Welsh creative companies would be overlooked or disadvantaged when applying for EU funds. Better Together?

International Mobility

Although Wales attracts its fair share of Erasmus funding and
participation, twice as many students are incoming as outgoing.
(Pic : BBC)

Erasmus, now reformed into Erasmus+, is a general exchange programme aimed at all aspects of the university sector. The British Council is in charge of this at a UK level and says Wales is "attracting its share of the budget in relation to population size" (€11million between 2006-07 and 2012-13).

The benefits of participating in Erasmus are said to include : greater employability, improved self-esteem and there was evidence that academic performance improves too. There's also a knock-on impact to universities themselves, as Erasmus can leave a good impression on students studying here and could be adapted to provide a trade boost that runs into the tens of millions of pounds.

One big barrier is that there are twice as many incoming students to Wales as there are outgoing. Lower Welsh take-up rates are said to be down to numerous factors like : language barriers, lack of engagement by academics, lack of awareness, financial problems and lack of confidence. Also, participation was markedly lower from "new universities".

Cardiff University's Prof. Colin Riordan set a target of 17% of graduating students spending some study time abroad by 2017, having set up a £1.6million bursary fund to help achieve it. At the moment the rate is 12%.

Despite his ambition being praised, these levels of participation fall far short of Germany, which has a 50% target. Prof. Riordan said levels of engagement on this matter with the Welsh Government were "low" and that it wasn't afforded a high level of status.

Colegau Cymru suggested the creation of a "one-stop shop" within the Welsh Government for lifelong learning programmes, while Swansea University suggested the Welsh Government could do more to help universities and colleges access EU funding programmes.

There was also confusion over youth volunteering and youth work. The British Council no longer want to work with devolved bodies on this (in Wales' case Connect Cymru), but said that was because they're changing how they're working with them as there was little evidence of the benefits and effectiveness of youth work and youth volunteering programmes.

International Co-operation

A lot of the Welsh participation in INTERREG is wrapped up in the Ireland-Wales programme.
(Pic : EU Commission)

There were 89 INTERREG projects in Wales during the 2007-13 funding period, attracting €41.5million in EU funding. Most of this went towards Irish-Welsh co-operation.

Colegau Cymru said there are specific challenges here, as in order to get funding, projects need to be managed not only across institutions but across borders around the EU. Milford Haven Port Authority also said there hadn't been enough engagement with the private sector.

Local councils say that while they've participated in programmes like INTERREG, much of their focus has been on structural funding (Objective One, European Social Fund) and rural development. They pointed towards the lack of Welsh Government advice and contacts, with Conwy Council adding – in rather parochial terms – that "their only priority is their own local area".

The Committee underlined the lack of a joined-up approach, but also a lack of ambition by local councils, which is "in marked contrast to the further education sector". They called on the WLGA to display leadership.

Trans-European Transport Networks (TEN-T)

Wales - left off an EU map....again.
And the Welsh Government hasn't helped matters either.
(Pic : ITV Wales)

TENT-T is described as a "set of strategically significant road, rail, air, water transport networks" identified by the EU as particularly important to the internal market.

Wales isn't currently on any of the core network corridors, though Business & Economy Minister, Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower) said Welsh experts were sent as part of the UK team when drafting the maps. Milford Haven and the north Wales coast mainline were subsequently added at the request of the UK Government.

Milford Haven Port Authority say there's a significant amount of money that could be available to Wales to develop freight facilities, but too much focus has been on passengers. Holyhead was also excluded from TEN-T as a core port, despite its pretty important role in linking Great Britain to Ireland – though it falls short of Liverpool in terms of tonnage.The Committee say that the negotiating process between Cardiff, London and Brussels was "confused and opaque".

Also, in an astonishing admission, Wales didn't make any applications to, and secured no funding from, the TEN-T programme as of January 2014. Edwina Hart has confirmed, however, that a business case for improvements to the Crewe-Holyhead railway through TEN-T is underway.

The Answer : "Wales could do more"

To repeat myself, there's a clear need for some sort of high level strategy – as much as I loathe such things – and many of the Committee's recommendations make sense. EU programmes also have to be put in a much wider context than structural and agricultural funds as they have important cultural and educational aspects as well.

The lack of proper engagement with TEN-T, however, is a hidden national disgrace and signifies incredible laziness on the part of the Welsh Government. Even a slither of TEN-T funding could've gone a long way towards bringing forward projects like rail electrification or upgrading parts of the A55. I suppose they deserve credit for getting the ball rolling on the north Wales mainline at least.

I suppose in a way this is a complement or follow-up to my 2012 post -"What Wales gets from the European Union".

The answer is, quite clearly, "a lot". If the Welsh Government properly organised itself and started to put the work in the answer would be "even more" - and not just in monetary terms.

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Home Truths? See me, please

A language thousands of years old. A language generating arguments
that seem to go on for a thousand years.
It's time to take those arguments to school....
(Pic : BBC Wales)

                    
Earlier this month, an article from "writer, editor and teacher" Evan Harris appeared on the Open Democracy website, flagged up by Inside Out and National Left. Titled "Home Truths", it was an all too familiar discussion about the Welsh language, Welsh language policy and Welsh medium education.

Let's take a closer look, shall we?

His own fluency

"I tried to say ‘I'm in my flat, frying vegetables’ but couldn’t think of the word for vegetables, or flat and the verb ‘to fry’....All my education from age 3 to 16 was in Welsh – I scored top marks in Welsh language and literature exams – but I can no longer speak it."

This strongly implies he had a Welsh-medium (WM) education, though it's never explicitly stated. In the latest WJEC guidelines for GCSE Welsh First Language, "top marks" requires (pdf p17) :

• Rich and fluent language.
• Strong grasp of grammar and syntax.
• Clear and refined self-expression.
• Appropriate phraseology for the task and audience.
• Confident use of a wide vocabulary.

Someone going through WM education from 3-16 will have been taught many – not necessarily all - subjects through the medium of Welsh. That should be enough to develop fluency and retain knowledge of basic nouns and verbs – especially someone getting "top marks".

That's not to dismiss it. Losing a language does happen and it's known as language attrition. However, it's dependent on a combination of proficiency, frequency of use and motivation to retain it.

Therefore, if you want to retain a second language and you're competent at using it (or immersed in it like WM education, Murtagh 2004), odds are you probably will retain it.

The Beaufort-Welsh Government Survey

"I learned my atrophied tongue is not alone; I am part of a trend. A report published by the Welsh Assembly shows only 50% of Welsh speakers aged 16-24 consider themselves fluent. Only a third use it socially."

The report - commissioned on behalf of the Welsh Government, BBC Wales and S4C – found 51% of those 16-24 y.o. Welsh-speakers questioned said they spoke Welsh fluently, with 74% saying they were either fluent or "can speak a fair amount of Welsh" (p21).

There were no differences in older age groups, with figures ranging around the 65% mark for fluency and 80%+ for both fluency and "speak a fair amount". In fact, fluency levels were said to be slightly higher compared to a similar survey from 2005 (p22).

The reasons given for the discrepancy in fluency between young and old include:

• 16-24s were less likely to say they spoke Welsh at home as a child, pointing towards the  expansion of WM education amongst English-speaking households.
• Welsh-speakers are just as likely to carry out activities in English as they are in Welsh, depending on the activity. This points to both "functional bilingualism" and a lack of relevant Welsh-medium activities.
• Younger Welsh-speakers were much more likely to use Welsh via things like Twitter (64% of them did) or Facebook (35%). They're also equally less likely to use traditional media.
• Welsh-speakers in north and Mid & West Wales were significantly more likely (61-65%) to use Welsh socially that those in the south east (19%). Older people are also more likely to use Welsh at work (including a surprising 51% of 25-29s).
• The number of Welsh-speaking households where only Welsh is spoken ranges from between 22-37% depending on where you are in the country, while significantly more homes use both Welsh and English.
• 84% of respondents welcomed the opportunity to "do more in Welsh", with the least fluent more enthusiastic (92%) and 16-24s even more so (95%).
• Only 24% of 16-24s said they were comfortable using Welsh instead of English, compared to 43% of over 60s.

Across all age groups, only 22-28% of respondents believed Welsh language culture "seemed irrelevant at times", but 16-24s were more likely to say yes. That's outnumbered by those who want to do more in Welsh.

So, the nub of the reason behind a lack of perceived fluency are lack of confidence and lack of opportunities to use Welsh - not that they don't want to use it. Compounding the survey's findings, there's evidence that lack of confidence means people underestimate their proficiency in a language (MacIntyre, Noels, Clement 1997).

There's clear enthusiasm there, but disappointment at the lack of opportunities to use Welsh socially. That's what concerned the Welsh Government in their own words, and no doubts impacts people's perceptions of their own fluency in the long run, as well as perceptions of the language's relevance in daily life.

Attitudes towards the Welsh language

One of Evan's claims that does stand up is that Welsh-speaking
ability is linked to a greater sense of identity and belonging.
However, when it comes to policy he gets it spectacularly wrong.
(Pic : Click on Wales)

From the same report, respondents felt the Welsh language:

• Enhances a sense of personal identity and a sense of achievement at being able to speak Welsh.
• Would improve their children's employment prospects and secure the Welsh language's survival.
• Was necessary in areas where Welsh was heard on the street, and saw the language as "something to share" with incomers. It ties people to a community giving them a sense of belonging.
• Enhances links with Welsh arts and culture.

I'm in no doubt that Welsh-speakers are more likely to turnout and support further powers for the National Assembly – as in the 2011 referendum (Aberystwyth University study) - and perhaps more likely to support independence. A correlation is noticeable in other surveys, but never been that significant to make a difference.

The Swansea University presentation he links to (ppt), and more importantly the paper, concludes that with regard Welsh language policy "the intrinsic ideology predominates" (Welsh is valued as an independent entity) rather than what Evan claims throughout are instrumental concerns (Welsh is used as a means to another, hinted nationalist, end).

The Welsh language is, as the author says, perhaps "stoked by aspirations to stronger cultural, historical and personal identity" but that's amongst Welsh-speakers alone, and there's no evidence of a negative impact on non-Welsh speakers in terms of their own identity, or it being dependent on social class.

In fact, the Swansea University study dismisses the idea that Welsh language policy (rather than the language itself) is motivated by identity.

It even says that although there may be negative fall-out from pursing intrinsic policies - as with any form of positive discrimination to protect minority groups - any "discriminatory effect" on non-Welsh speakers is minimal, perhaps amounting to as little as 1% in a scenario relating to charity funding - coming from Welsh Government officials themselves!

The "Welsh Class"

Are wires crossed as to why  "the crachach" are
socio-economically advantaged?
(Pic : peterfinch.co.uk)

As he puts it (via Ralph Fevre et al) :

"....a small middle-class status group, socio-economically advantaged and is concerned with the honour and prestige of its language and culture. It is the community at the heart of Welsh nationalism, and has succeeded in normalising the aspiration to belong to an amorphous national community whilst remaining aloof as the arbiter of its high culture.

"....Welsh language education does not, and perhaps will not, give students access to the benefits the Welsh Class enjoys."

In the local vernacular they're known as "the crachach" or "The Taffia". I define the term as meaning "well-connected snobs" regardless of whether they're English-speaking or Welsh-speaking. Other people have their own definitions.

They exist in folk memory, but are they in an advantaged/privileged position? What defines a "socio-economic advantaged class"? From the top of my head (and not a conclusive list) :

• Access to better public services than the majority of the population enjoy.
• Over-representation in public life, top universities, land ownership and at the top of business.
• Appointment to high office by patronage, connections and inheritance.
• Social conditioning that they be treated not only with respect, but reverence.
• Avoiding unpleasant social obligations (like military service, fines, paying certain taxes).

It's hard to deny it happens in Wales. However, membership of an advantaged class is dependent on exclusive "means of entry" that are beyond the reach of an ordinary citizen, usually coming down to blood, connections or capital.

The only perceived advantage a member of a "Welsh Class"  has - on the same terms he describes it as being - compared to the stereotyped British upper middle class is an ability to speak Welsh, which isn't in itself an exclusive means of entry as absolutely anyone can acquire it.

Any "Welsh Class" probably exists for the same reasons as the British upper middle class – blood, connections and capital. Speaking Welsh or being cultured wouldn't be a means of entry into this "elite" by itself, you need those other things. They also need palpable advantage. The "benefits of the Welsh Class" haven't been outlined. What are they? What do they actually get from it?

It resembles a furtive fallacy, tying seemingly related factors together (such as the existence of a Welsh-speaking upper middle class, and that Welsh-speakers might be more predispositioned to support further devolution) as evidence that supports an exaggerated non sequitur (a closed-off, high-society elite devoted to the cause of Welsh nationalism).

The author contradicts their claims by suggesting throughout there are few advantages/incentives to being bilingual, despite the existence of an elite who would need to keep their numbers and influence up in order to maintain said advantage.

A claim that expansion of WM education is linked to a nationalist plot is a political point and they have a right to say it, but it's a bit McCarthyite if there's little evidence of a significant and substantial advantage over non-Welsh speakers of the same social status.

An advantaged class that can't even use their "funny handshake" – an ability to speak Welsh - to buy their groceries doesn't sound too advantaged either.

The track record of Welsh medium education

Criticism of stagnant Welsh education standards holds up, I don't dispute it. I've touched on it enough down the years, as have others.

The thrust of the argument here though is a claim that WM schools perform no better than EM schools when taking into account deprivation – measured as pupils entitled to free school meals.

Borrowing Syniadau's example from last year and on the same basis (I hope he doesn't mind), here are the latest performance figures bench marked by medium and free school meals from 2011-12. The figures for 2012-13 are due for release on September 26^th.

Performance by medium and free school meal entitlement 2011-12
(Click to enlarge)

Red indicates the poorer of the two performances, green the better, white the same.

Compared to last year, EM schools where 15-20% of pupils are entitled to free school meals outperformed WM schools, which is good news because they've closed the gap and children are receiving a better education because of that. WM schools have seen improvements at the 10-15% level.

Overall, as you'll see in the right-hand column, WM schools still out-perform EM schools across the board. WM pupils are, on average, more likely to get a collection of higher grade GCSEs - as evidenced by the higher average wider points score - and more likely to get at least 5 A*-Cs at GCSE, including English or Welsh, Maths & Science (core subject indicator).

This is likely due to a lack of large numbers of free school meal pupils, who according to the ONS/Welsh Government (pdf) had a 71 point average wider points score handicap in 2012 compared to other pupils, while EM pupils had a 60 point handicap compared to WM pupils.

They're heavily-clustered in former coalfield local authorities and inner-cities (based on where the majority of deprived WIMD areas are), where WM education has never gained a foothold and where there are higher numbers of low income households entitled to free school meals – numbers which significantly outstrip poor areas of Y Fro.

One way you can make a like-for-like comparison is by using the ONS method to determine the figures in the right hand column, having eliminating EM pupils in the top two free school meal bands.

You do that by working out the number of EM pupils in each of the first three bands who met the respective thresholds (or a cumulative points total), dividing it by the total number of pupils in the first three columns, rounding it to the nearest whole number and comparing them to the WM figures.

Relative performance by medium, adjusted to take FSM
entitlement into account 2011-12
(Click to enlarge)

When you do, performances of EM and WM schools are near enough identical, with WM schools maintaining the slimmest of advantages. However, average and capped points scores still remain higher in WM schools.

Do WM schools perform better than EM schools, even when taking into account deprivation? - Yes.

Next, there's the claim the Welsh language survives :

"....because of coercion and punishment in schools, verbal aggression, humiliation, sanctions....For some in my school, speaking English was a defiant act, an assertion of an identity independent of prescribed nationalism; for most it was just more functional."

Many children and teenagers are obstreperous, attention-seeking, like to establish their individualism and don't do as their told - regardless of the language they're being taught in. They usually grow out of it by their mid-20s.

I imagine using Welsh whenever possible in a Welsh medium school will be high up the list of rules. Breaking school rules - regardless of medium - results in shouty teachers and punishments.

Welsh-speaking ability and employment

In the private sector, Welsh-speaking requirements seems mostly dependent
on the seniority of the post in addition to possessing other underlying
skills and experience.
(Pic : learnwelshinmidwales.org)

The paper the author cites says bilinguals earn on average between 9-11% more per hour (p8). It's unclear if that means they're underpaid relative to their other skills, but the paper suggests this was because of, "employers taking advantage of the relative immobility of bilingual workers, due to the value of living where the minority language can be spoken." So, Welsh is useful if you live and work in Wales. Glad that's cleared up.

It's suggested that it could be down to discrimination against Welsh-speakers in an Anglophone working environment as much as bilingualism not translating into "productive skills". (p18) Though there's no firm evidence of either.

According to a Welsh language skills report from 2005, only 9% of private companies reported a specific requirement for Welsh-speakers, with the highest percentage in the media (18%) and the lowest in the service sector (5%).

Despite this, 29% of businesses said customers preferred being offered the choice of being served in either language. A separate survey hints demand could be higher. Whether private companies offer Welsh language services or not is down to them unless required by law (i.e utilities companies).

Employers who had higher Welsh-speaking requirements either worked entirely in Welsh, mostly in Welsh or in both equally. This suggests Welsh-speaking ability is advantageous – possibly essential - in parts of Wales where business might be routinely conducted in Welsh.

In terms of the sorts of private sector jobs (Table 6), professional and managerial roles (Categories A & B) required the highest levels of Welsh-speaking ability compared to routine jobs (Category D).

This suggests having knowledge of Welsh is potentially financially advantageous, as it seems those jobs requiring a greater ability to speak Welsh generally pay higher salaries.

Where Welsh speakers were employed in 2012 by occupation.
(Click to enlarge)

More recent figures from 2012 (p86-87) also show Welsh-speaking skills spike amongst skilled trades, personal services and professionals. So it hasn't changed much in all that time and seems pretty broad in terms of social class. Skilled trades and personal services aren't normally considered jobs for the socio-economic "elite".

Suggesting (for professionals) that it's down to WM education is an easy assumption, but perhaps a lazy one. If WM education disappeared overnight, the children won't. They'll still need schools and they'll still need teachers. So the number of Welsh-speaking teachers, probably the number of teachers overall, would near enough remain the same.

The paper (p9) suggests employment is rarely based on Welsh-speaking ability alone, but because "bilinguals have, on average, higher levels of those characteristics that are rewarded in the labour market, including education and experience."

It's said, for example, that 52% of those who understand spoken Welsh have a degree compared to 37% of monolinguals (p16). However, when it comes to speaking, reading and writing Welsh, that advantage disappears, presumably as there are fewer of them in the first place.


The author says Welsh-speakers are advantaged due to government initiatives and the existence of a "Welsh Class", yet (paradoxically) simultaneously disadvantaged by possessing a skill that "isn't beneficial" - which is definitely not the case if such roles are created by statute (as he says) and Welsh-speaking skills are seen as desirable for certain high-paying jobs.

Setting the Welsh language up to fail either way is a self-refuting idea.

Evidence of better employability and earning potential amongst Welsh-speakers in highly-skilled, relatively high-paying jobs in both public and private sectors is there.

The benefits of bilingualism

As we increasingly understand how the brain works, the belief
that bilingualism inhibits learning (regardless of language) has become
outdated and discredited. The consensus now points towards the opposite.
(Pic : Dana Foundation)

A small selection of possible positive effects of bilingualism:

• Improved ability to deal with abstract information. (Bialystok, Shapero, 2005)
• Improved maintenance of cognitive functions in older age. (Gold, Kim et.al 2013)
• Quicker reaction times/attention when recognising words. (Yu, Thierry 2013)
• Delayed onset of Alzheimer's disease symptoms depending on age (Chertkow, Whitehead et.al 2010)
• Larger auditory cortex (Ressel, Pallier et al 2012)

I don't think it implies – as the author did – that "bilingualism makes children more intelligent", but there are clear benefits.

His claim that bilingualism limits vocabularies is nonsense. Also, his claim that there are few benefits for sequential ("taught") over simultaneous ("natural/spoken at home") bilinguals is partially discreditable.

Experiments have shown that both types of bilinguals outperform monoglots in certain tasks. Though between the two groups of bilinguals, simultaneous bilinguals will significantly outperform sequentials. Bilingualism takes gold and silver, and you have to factor in all the other advantages to bilingualism as well.

Next, it's the question of whether being bilingual makes it easier to learn another language. Yes it does, and there've been several studies showing such :

• Bilingual education enhances third language acquisition (Sanz, 2000)
• Bi-literate bilingualism vs mono-literate bilingualism (Schwatz, Geva et. al. 2006)
• Advantages of bilinguals over monolinguals in learning a third language (Abu-Rabia, Sanitsky et.al 2010)

Take up of Modern Foreign Languages (MFL) in WM schools

Though declines in the numbers of modern foreign language qualifications
are worrying, the evidence points to WM schools
"pulling their relative weight"  in terms of take-up.
(Pic : scholastic.co.uk)

The issue of language qualifications in Wales is relevant. Unfortunately, the author poisons the well by suggesting there was a lack of "sufficient provision".

MFLs are a statutory requirement in both EM & WM secondary schools as part of the National Curriculum's Key Stage 3 (p25) and are therefore compulsory for Years 7-9.

At GCSE level (Key Stage 4) in 2011-12 there were almost as many WM entries for French as there were for physics (Table 2.7), and WM entries made up between 11-14% of all MFL GCSE entries.

That matches, even slightly exceeds, Welsh-medium's share of GCSEs sat overall (11% - also Table 2.7) - not counting exams sat exclusively in either Welsh or English (like Welsh First Language & English Literature).

You can therefore say that in 2011-12 WM schools were "pulling their weight" in terms of foreign language qualifications, though things could always be better.

The A*-C pass rate for MFLs like German (77%), French (73%) and Spanish (76%) appears to be good across the board (Table 2.5a). Pupils are also more likely on average to get a good GCSE mark through attending a WM school (Table 2.6).

Whether pupils take up MFL beyond the age of 14 is a matter for individuals, and he's correct to say – based on declines in entries - that any "metalinguistic ability is being squandered".

I'm on record as supporting a compulsory second (or third) language at GCSE. That shouldn't need to be Welsh in EM schools, as - to be frank - some aspects of teaching Welsh as a second language in EM secondaries are a joke, in particular the GCSE Short Course.

Must try harder!

On the surface, Evan's article was a well-reasoned, thought-provoking piece.
Underneath however....

Those who oppose the Welsh language and/or WM education have been waiting for a "smoking gun" to back up their arguments since the Blue Books fell out of favour.

The fact they're still struggling to produce one while WM education continues to expand hints that their arguments – in terms of education at least - are being comprehensively defeated, while wider issues surrounding the Welsh language's future remain in flux.

Compared to some things written about language issues down the years, this was a bit more sophisticated. It's a fair attempt to make the arguments against WM education and Welsh language policy more credible by introducing academic, class consciousness and sociological slants to it. This is - for now - as good as it gets.

Welsh is - if you take the article at face value - "being taken away from salt of the earth folk by the crachach". It's almost a romantically tragic lament at the decline of Welsh minus the grief.

Dismissing the opening paragraph – which really should've set people's alarm bells ringing - it was entertaining enough, with valid points made about the state of education and the Welsh language's role in public life.
Delve a little deeper though and there's not much there. It stumbles into tired arguments, appearing to be a thinly-veiled rant at a "Welsh Class" and nationalists in general, but – to their credit – avoiding clichéd references to Pontcanna and Cymdeithas yr Iaith.

If the author hadn't said they were a teacher, this would've been solid C-grade material. Considering this was written by someone who's supposedly trying to instill concepts like objectivity and reasoning in our children, they flunked it.

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Census 2011 : National Identity & Ethnicity

Is Wales significantly less "British" than commonly believed?
It looks like it.
(Pic : Clive Morgan via theimagefile.co.uk)

• Census 2011 : What's stunting Welsh?
• Census 2011 : Losing our religion?

How "Welsh" is Wales?

This has been covered before by both Syniadau and Welsh not British. All the data I've used to compile this is available here. I couldn't link to them directly.

2011 was the first census year you were able to officially record yourself as Welsh, English, Scottish etc. so there are no previous figures from 2001 to judge any changes.

% of population giving some form of Welsh
identity in the 2011 census
(Click to enlarge)

So, how "Welsh" is Wales? For this exercise I'm counting "Welsh only", "Welsh and British" and "Welsh and another identity" as "describing themselves as Welsh".

Only two local authorities – Flintshire and Conwy – had less than 50% of the population giving no Welsh identity. Flintshire probably due to close interconnections and cross-border commuting to/from the Wirral, Merseyside and Cheshire. Conwy probably because of retirees and, yes, people moving from the large conurbations of NW England to live by the sea. Denbighshire also came close to having 50% or less. Powys, Ceredigion and Monmouthshire also have what could be considered "weak" Welsh identity.


The strongest Welsh identity is in the south, in particular the former coalfields. RCT and Merthyr have joint highest levels of Welsh identity at 82.2%, with all valleys local authorities (including Swansea and Carmarthenshire) having Welsh identifying populations of 70%+.

Cardiff - as you might expect - falls just short of a 60% Welsh identifying population. I imagine all national capitals are more "international" than their respective nations with the exception of Pyongyang. Newport and Vale of Glamorgan have similar figures, presumable as they are "overspill".

% of the population giving NO British identity
(Click to enlarge)

Nationally, 65.8% of the resident Welsh population gave some sort of Welsh identity, and the clear majority of them (87.3%) considered themselves exclusively Welsh.

But what about "British" identity? It's probably best to highlight how many people gave NO British national identity in the census – that would include people describing themselves as English, Scottish etc. It's actually quite startling.



A clear majority in every single Welsh local authority didn't consider themselves "British" at all. Again this sentiment is stronger in the south Wales valleys, but even in supposedly Anglicised areas it's the same trend, just less pronounced.

It ranges from 81.4% in Merthyr Tydfil to 65.9% in Monmouthshire – and Monmouthshire is the lowest. You're looking at an average 26% of people per local authority considering themselves British or (Something) and British. That's outstripped by Welsh identity and, in come cases, English identity.

The English in Wales

Although the numbers of Scots, Northern Irish and Irish are recorded, they don't make up any significant percentage of the Welsh population. What's clear, and what you probably already knew, is that the English are the largest "minority" in Wales.

% of the resident population giving some form
of English identity
(Click to enlarge)

"Minority" is key. Nationally, just 13.8% of the resident Welsh population identified themselves as wholly or partially English.


English identity ranges from 31.7% in Flintshire, to just 4.5% in Merthyr Tydfil. There's no English majority in any local authority, and doesn't appear to be on the cusp of happening any time soon. The average percentage of people identifying themselves as English (one way or another) per local authority is a paltry 14.9%.

If anyone still thinks Monmouthshire's "a part of England" – 21.8% of the population considered themselves wholly or partially English. Judging by the numbers in the Gwent Valleys – also part of the former county of Monmouthshire – it's probably best the English Democrats stay away from canvassing there. They would be better off trying Connah's Quay and Mold instead. However, I suspect Flintshire isn't "nice" enough to be annexed.

In terms of people born in England, the pattern's varied. 20.8% of the resident Welsh population were born in England in 2011. However, it's heavily skewed towards Powys and Flintshire, with large English-born populations in Ceredigion, Conwy and Denbighshire.

% of the resident population born in England
(Click to enlarge)

Elsewhere in Wales, especially the south, the numbers of English-born are low, barely rising above 10% in Valleys areas. Only 14.1% of Swansea's population were born in England and just 12.2% in Bridgend. Even Cardiff doesn't break the 20% barrier. It's only Monnmouthshire in the south that stands out.

The numbers of Welsh-born living in England amounts to 1% (or 561,000 people, perhaps more) of the English population. The number of English-born in Wales (20.8%) amounts to 637,200 people. So there's clearly been net "English" in migration, but it's a difference of just 76,000 people compared to those leaving. And not all of them will be "English".

Place of birth

In 2001, there was a local authority average of 26.9% of the population born outside Wales. In 2011, that's risen to 29.2% - which is slightly higher than the Welsh national figure (27.4%). This is because the actual figures across Wales vary wildly on a county-to-county level.

% of resident population
not born in Wales
(click to enlarge)

Only two local authorities – Conwy and Denbighshire – saw a fall in the numbers born outside Wales.

However, in Powys and Flintshire, half of the resident population were born outside Wales, with the likes of Conwy (45.5%) and Ceredigion (44.5%) close behind. In fact, the numbers born outside Wales are heavily skewed towards rural parts of the country with the exception of Carmarthenshire.

Now, most of the people reading this are going to immediately point to English in migration. But....

The numbers of people in Wales born in England – outlined further up - have remained relatively stable. There's no evidence of a "mass influx", and in the south the numbers born in England have flatlined or even fallen slightly. Nationally, the English-born population of Wales has only risen by 0.5% compared to 2001, and the bulk of that can be accounted to Powys, Carmarthenshire and Neath Port Talbot. Even Cardiff has only seen a 0.6% rise.

Change in the % of residents born in England
2001-2011
(click to enlarge)

The evidence points to the increase in people being born outside Wales being driven by migrants from the European Union (post 2004 enlargement) or elsewhere, perhaps mainly international students. This was a point I made in the Welsh language post.

Wrexham (+2.6%), Ceredigion (+1.4%), Cardiff (+1.8) and Carmarthenshire (+1.3%) have all seen a rise in EU-born residents that completely outstrips English-born once non-EU born are added to that. It's a similar pattern in every local authority.

At local authority level, there's an average 2.2% increase in the numbers born outside Wales. Up to 1.95% (88%) of that is down to EU and "other" immigrants. It's almost identical to the average fall in the number of Welsh-born residents.

So if you're determined to want a migratory reason as to why the percentage of Welsh-speakers have fallen, you'll have to look much, much further east than Offa's Dyke.

Change in the % of residents not born in Wales
2001-2011
(Click to enlarge)

It's also fair to point out that being "born in England" doesn't mean you're not Welsh, or vice versa.Quite a fair number of Welsh babies in border counties like Powys will have been born in English hospitals I'd imagine – the Royal Shrewsbury is closer than Bronglais. 20.8% of the Welsh population may have been born in England, but only 13.8% of the population consider themselves wholly or partially "English."

Oh, and under those definitions I'm not Welsh either. I count in the census as someone "not born in Wales." If you're going to judge nationality by birthplace alone, I guess I'm going to have to "bugger off home" with a Cantonese dictionary tucked under my arm and leave Wales for the "proper Welsh."

Race in Wales

Outside the cities and university towns, it's safe to say that
Wales remains (relatively) mono-ethnic.
(Pic : BBC Asian Network)

There's little point analysing Caucasians. The average "white" ethnic population per local authority was 96.6%. Bears in woods. Compare that to the 86% total for EnglandandWales.

That means in terms of people from mixed, black, Asian or other (i.e Arab) backgrounds, the all-Wales average is just 3.4% - and that's been dragged upwards by a handful of local authorities.

The only local authorities that can point to having anything close to a multi-ethnic population are Cardiff and Newport. In Cardiff, 15.3% of people are from a mixed or minority ethnic backgrounds, while it's 10% in Newport. Swansea comes in fairly close behind them, but even there 94% of the population are from white ethnic groups.

The largest minority ethnic group across Wales are Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi Asians. This broadly corroborates my last census post on religion, where Islam and Hinduism are the two largest faiths outside Christianity.

% of the resident population from a mixed,
black, Asian or other minority ethnic background in 2011
(Click to enlarge)

The largest Chinese communities are in Cardiff (1.2%), Swansea (0.9%) and Gwynedd (0.7%).

The Black-Welsh population though, barely registers outside Cardiff (2.4%) and Newport (1.7%). There's an average black population of 0.38% per local authority. In Merthyr Tydfil there were, in 2011, no black residents (or so few they barely reached .1 of a percent). Several local authorities - in particular across north Wales, the Gwent Valleys and Pembrokeshire - recorded just 0.1%.

Outside Cardiff (2%), Swansea (1%) and Newport (1%); Ceredigion (0.5%) and Gwynedd (0.7%) recorded the largest populations of "other" resident ethnic groups.

What could this mean?

British identity in Wales is soft – It's unclear what impact last summer's successful London Olympics will have had, but it's worth pointing out that the census was taken around the same time as last year's other "Big British Bash" – Billy Whizcopter and Kaff getting married. It doesn't appear to have made any impact. I'm not sure what this means for nationalism. It could be a good thing - for obvious reasons. Or, it could equally mean the Welsh are comfortable with multiple nationalities to spend too much time thinking about it. But when they do think about it, they'll perhaps be more likely to lean towards "Welsh" (or English) than "British." Everything points to there being polarisation between a majority Welsh identity and a large minority English identity.

Reinforcing the common bonds of "British identity"? Or excuse for a piss up?
You got to say - based on the evidence - excuse for a piss up.
(Pic : BBC)

The English are not "swamping" Wales (as a whole) – Aside from Flintshire, Powys and the Costa Geriatrica, there's no real sign of any mass influx. Judging by the figures, quite a few English people in Wales may now consider themselves Welsh. Good. Why shouldn't they? What matters is how old they are, and I'll be looking at demography another time.

Wales is becoming more "European" – With 88% of the change in people born outside Wales driven by non-British immigration – especially EU enlargement nations - Wales has become ever so slightly more cosmopolitan. It's unclear if this is a good thing or a bad thing. Hopefully it could lead, in the long-term, to more trade opportunities or university co-operation.

Link between universities and minority ethnic residents – It's fairly probable that having a university in your local authority boosts the numbers of people from minority ethnic backgrounds by attracting international students. That would explain why Ceredigion, Rhondda Cynon Taf and Gwynedd have proportionally larger minority ethnic populations than somewhere like Bridgend or Blaenau Gwent.

Are a large chunk of minority ethnic residents
in Wales international students?
(Pic : The Guardian)

Question marks over Third Sector economies of scale – When AWEMA wound up, there were three or four other race-related charities ready to step in and take over. You have to question - given the small populations of minority groups in Wales – why there's so many of these bodies? Surely it would be better to have a single body/charity with clout, instead of six or seven competing for their own slice of pie? A similar point was raised in the recent arts participation report from the Assembly. By proliferating into ever smaller organisations, competing for ever smaller pots of money, are Third Sector bodies doing minority groups a disservice?


The Assembly accurately reflects Wales' ethnic make up – There's one AM for approximately 1.7% of the population. Having two AMs from minority backgrounds – Mohammad Ashgar (Con, South Wales East) and Vaughan Gething (Lab, Cardiff South & Penarth) – is pretty much representative, so well done us. So that's a far cry from the hand-wringing that the devolved administrations aren't doing enough here. Maybe positive discrimination here should concentrate instead on gender balance and, in Wales' case, disabilities – my next stop.

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