Fourth Assembly Review : End of Term Awards

The stage is (not) set, the red carpet is (not) laid out....
(Pic : modified via Shutterstock)

After focusing on what they've collectively done or haven't done, it's worth turning attentions to AMs themselves and being "nice to them".

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Fourth Assembly In Focus : Economic Profile 2016

In about ten weeks weeks time, those of us who will bother to vote will elect a new Assembly and a "new" Welsh Government. My 2016 election coverage starts today with a mini series over three weekends focusing on three key areas of devolved public policy and how they've changed over the last five years : the economy, health and education.

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The Great Cardiff Airport Swindle?

Were the Welsh Government diddled when they nationalised Cardiff Airport in 2013?
(Pic : Wales Online)

As others have said, the Welsh Government's reputation when it comes to spending public money has taken a big hit over the last few days, and brings what I said in Wales reacts to steel job cuts all the more into focus:

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Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap V : The Inquiry

(Pic : BBC Wales)

Yesterday, the Public Accounts Committee published their forensic report into the failed Regeneration Investment Fund for Wales (RIFW)....and it makes really, really grim reading for the Welsh Government (pdf).

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Making the Metro

(Pic : BBC Wales)

At the end of November the Welsh Government launched the first publicity campaign for the proposed South Wales Metro after the project was given a firm go ahead earlier in 2015 (Metro a Go Go).

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Assembly Calls for Steel Industry Support

(Pic : South Wales Argus)

The latest topical Members' Debate in the Senedd takes place amidst growing concerns about a slow down in the global steel market and the influx of cheap, low-grade steel from China.

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Road to Somewhere?

With the latest section of the A465 dualling project set to fully open soon,
it's worth reflecting on the short-term and long-term impact.
(Pic : a465brynmawr2tredegar.co.uk)

The latest section in the long-running project to dual the Heads of the Valleys road (A465) between Abergavenny and Hirwaun is due to fully open imminently (it's been partially open for a few weeks now). Section 3, which runs between Tredegar and Brynmawr, has cost £158million, with £80million of that coming from the EU.

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Network Rail - Taking the Welsh Government for a ride?

The project to redouble a section of track between Wrexham and Chester is an example
of Network Rail over-promising and under-delivering when it comes to Welsh railways.
(Pic : rmweb.co.uk)

Network Rail's relationship with devolved Wales has always been somewhat awkward. They now have a department responsible for rail infrastructure in Wales, but they're not directly answerable to either the Welsh Government or National Assembly.

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Downloading (22% - 2 years left)....

With the Wales Audit Office recently giving Superfast Cymru a thumbs up,
the minister in charge provided an update to AMs on progress to date.
(Pic : recombu.com)

The Superfast Cymru scheme is a £425million partnership between BT and the Welsh Government which aims to provide high-speed broadband (generally defined as somewhere between 20-50 Megabits/second) to every home and business in Wales – particularly those in hard to reach areas.

Good internet connections have become an everyday necessity regardless of where you live, while for rural businesses in particular – who often endure poor mobile and internet connections - it's essential, especially as farming payments have increasingly moved to online-only management (see also : The Green, Green Glas of Home).

In general terms, the scheme focuses on upgrading, or installing new, green BT roadside cabinets with fibre optics connections to telephone exchanges. Fibre optic cables enable much faster download speeds and can carry more information as signals are sent as pulses of light. They're also less susceptible to environmental damage.

Yesterday, Deputy Minster for Skills & Technology, Julie James (Lab, Swansea West) updated the National Assembly on progress being made by the programme.

The Deputy Minister started by saying the scheme meant Wales was moving into a position where every business and home has access to superfast broadband, as outlined in the Programme for Government (clip) - the aim of the scheme being to bring high-speed broadband to areas where the market wouldn't go. With it crucial to becoming a "truly digital nation", a big push is needed to reach the last 3-4% of premises. This includes using mobile technology like 4G, and a new scheme based on this will be launched later this year.

Without intervention, it's said 480,000 premises wouldn't have access to superfast broadband. With 79% of Welsh homes and businesses having access so far, Wales is ahead of the EU average. The scheme has created 250 jobs and provided a number of apprenticeships and work experience placements, while the Wales Audit Office (WAO) have said Superfast Cymru is making "reasonable progress".

The Superfast Cymru website will be revamped to give residents more certainty on when they would be connected. Plus, the contract has been extended to June 2017, with additional public funding of of £19million, in order to target an extra ~45,000 premises (and specifically 2,500 businesses). Swansea is also being used by BT as a testbed for 500Mbits/second ultra-fast broadband (G. fast).

There was a need to ensure people take up superfast broadband. So far, 22% of customers have taken it up within a year of it being available - the highest take-up rate in the UK. The target is for 50% take-up by 2024. Claw back agreements mean that once the scheme breaks even, the Welsh Government get some extra money back.

Shadow Economy Minister, William Graham (Con, South Wales East), said significant problems remain – mentioning issues on Deeside enterprise zone specifically (clip) - though the project demonstrates effective public-private cooperation. He hoped there was no complacency as Wales is likely to be ahead of other countries for only a short period of time, with a number of "not spots" remaining, including in around Cardiff, citing an example of a business leasing a line for broadband at a cost of £20,000.

The Deputy Minister said Wales was second only to Cornwall in take-up though roll-out has been faster than the rest of the UK. She acknowledged difficulties, suggesting alternative technologies could address problems on Deeside. Superfast Cymru only covers areas which are commercially unviable, and it won't be until the end of the programme that those involved will be able to see if something can be done for "not spots" in commercially viable areas like Cardiff.

Plaid Cymru economy spokesperson, Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid, Ynys Môn), said it was right to aim for universal roll-out to ease the transition into a digital economy (clip). He suggests his constituents would be surprised by the WAO's positive assessment as they, and other rural areas, wait for upgrades. He asked : Could 4G services be brought into Superfast Cymru instead of relying on mobile companies? Whether the extension to 2017 includes the whole scheme or just the 45,000 additional premises? We should aim for greater take-up than 50%, but is there a danger Wales could lag behind once faster broadband speed benchmarks are set?

The Deputy Minister said the additional premises wouldn't disrupt other parts of the programme. 4G is being looked at, as well as other technologies, to produce superfast speeds. She accepted the point on take-up, but Wales was doing well compared to other countries.

David Rees AM (Lab, Aberavon) stressed the importance of delivering broadband to businesses, with particular concerns over business parks in his area (clip), especially those which are surrounded by residential areas eligible for Superfast Cymru but are themselves being left out. He asked what speeds people can expect and whether the new infrastructure can deliver 500Mbit/s in the future? Also, which ISPs provide superfast broadband to ensure businesses have a choice?

The Deputy Minister explained the business park situation by saying that because EU funds are being used, a "market failure" has to be proven to justify state intervention, so that's why business parks are last in the queue not first. On speeds, there's a floor of 28Mbit/s but businesses can pay extra for faster speeds. Superfast Cymru is being delivered as wholesale with individual ISPs providing services (in the same way as energy companies).

It's not just rural areas suffering from poor broadband speeds. Some parts of Cardiff just a
stone's throw from the Assembly are "not spots" but are ineligible for Superfast Cymru.
(Pic : The Guardian)

Eluned Parrott AM (Lib Dem, South Wales Central) said the programme was a lot like "trying to hit a moving target" as things change quickly and it needs to be future-proofed (clip). Eluned suggested that mobile technology might not be suitable due to poor mobile coverage in parts of Wales, as well as planning issues surrounding mobile phone masts. She added that parts of Cardiff, including her own regional office in Roath, have connection issues meaning her staff are "devastated" that they can't watch her on Senedd TV. One other issue raised was the fact many new-build estates aren't covered by Superfast Cymru because despite the lines being installed, BT's broadband department haven't been told and don't realise the new homes exist.

Julie said future-proofing was one of the reasons for the claw back agreement so BT and the Welsh Government can keep re-investing. Following meetings with mobile operators, she expects widespread 4G coverage "within the next couple of years", though planning issues are very complicated and need discussions with the UK Government. She finished by saying that BT aren't the only company rolling out infrastructure improvements as there are other commercial operators – like Virgin Media - doing so too.

Russell George AM (Con, Montgomery) asked two questions (clip) : why information on specific premises falling outside the scope of Superfast Cymru wasn't available? And what the budget was to market superfast broadband? Julie explained that information was based on postcodes, not individual addresses, and £1.5million was available for marketing.

Elin Jones AM (Plaid, Ceredigion) said "no other issue causes as much frustration in Ceredigion" than poor broadband (clip). She was pleased the website was being updated, but wanted to know if premises in her constituency would be updated by 2016, or whether they would be part of the additional 45,000 premises set to be upgraded by 2017?

The Deputy Minister said 41.35% of premises have been completed in Ceredigion, so BT weren't even halfway yet. The website would be updated to include accurate information based on distance from cabinets.

As a former Deputy Minister for Skills & Technology, Jeff Cuthbert AM (Lab, Caerphilly) said he was familiar with the problems (clip), such as trying to locate cabinets in urban areas. He asked for confirmation that "disadvantaged communities aren't overlooked" by the scheme?

Julie said a successor to the Communities 2.0 programme is up and running, and the Welsh Government were working to ensure no communities are left out.

Kirsty Williams AM (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor), wanted to ensure the information (clip) on the website is "useful" as she's struggled to get answers on from BT on behalf of constituents, but in particular Dan yr Ogof Showcaves, who developed an app on the presumption that broadband would be available this year, but will be delayed until 2016. She also said cabinet upgrades had led to poorer internet speeds in some areas.

The Deputy Minister pledged to look into problems as a worse performance was certainly not intended. She agreed on the need for useful information, and as the scheme progresses it's becoming easier to provide information based on distance from a cabinet. Julie added that BT sometimes had to deal with situations beyond their control and can't always give accurate timescales for broadband upgrades. However, she's asked BT to be more specific when telling the public about difficulties they're having (i.e planning delays).

Janet Finch-Saunders AM (Con, Aberconwy) asked what steps were being taken to consult with the community, citing an example where residents in Dolwyddelan (clip) were quoted £2,000 by BT to move a new cabinet to another location as it was close to community planters and chapel gates. The Deputy Minister said she couldn't comment on individual cases.

Finally, Mark Isherwood AM (Con, North Wales) asked (clip) about superfast broadband for rural schools and whether rural schools are a priority, to which the Deputy Minister said primary schools aren't part of Superfast Cymru but a separate programme.

Will widespread instrastructure upgrades lead to better offers for consumers?
(Pic : recombu.com)

Superfast Cymru isn't without critics – in particular the Pirate Party (Pirate Party : Hoising the Jolly Roger above Wales), who've criticised the technology and high prices of superfast services.

Broadly-speaking I'd say it's a good idea, though I'd share concerns over whether this will be outdated 10-15 years down the line when, presumably, G.fast becomes the norm. The clawback agreement is, therefore, a sensible part of the scheme.

The issue is take-up. 22% doesn't sound that impressive on the face of it (though I was actually surprised it's that high). Households and businesses have to actually sign up to the superfast (often advertised as "fibre") services which come at a premium, sometimes being three times more expensive than cable broadband, the latter of which might come free with a subscription media package.

Hopefully once the infrastructure is in place the ISP subscription costs will come down, and I'm going to presume cost and usage limits are currently the biggest barrier to take-up.

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Metro a Go Go

The Welsh Government have announced a £600million second phase of the Cardiff capital region Metro,
as well as a new not-for-profit company to run the Wales & Borders rail franchise from 2018.
(Pic : Vale of Glamorgan Council)

As you probably already know, Business & Economy Minister, Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower) made a major announcement on the future of the South Wales Metro on Tuesday (30^th June).

The Minister told the National Assembly her department has made "significant progress" on the Metro and Wales & Borders franchise (Future of the Wales & Borders Rail Franchise). Phase 1 of the Metro is already being delivered via capacity enhancements to the Ebbw Vale line and the recent opening of Ebbw Vale Town station.

Highlights from the announcement (clip) include :

• The Metro will be a high quality integrated transport system (see also : Assembly Integrated Transport Inquiry), with rapid, frequent and reliable rail services linking in with the bus network.
• Passengers will be able to move seamlessly from one form of transport to another using integrated payment methods (i.e a Welsh Oyster Card).
• South Wales mainline electrification "must be delivered in line with previous announcements". A procurement process for Valley Lines electrification will start next year, with work possibly beginning in 2017-18.
• The Metro and Wales & Borders franchise will be run as a single contract and as a "not-for-dividend" company (Welsh Government Transport Company). The Welsh Transport Company has already been incorporated, and aims to emulate Transport for London. It will probably be run as a concession with a profit cap, meaning more money will be available to invest in services.
• The Welsh Government are "keeping an open mind" on the details of how the Metro would be delivered (i.e. tram-trains, heavy rail, trams), but there are "red lines" :
• no low-quality rolling stock
• capacity and reliability must improve
• efficiency must increase to allow more frequent services
• Local authorities will help shape the final version of the Metro through their Local Development Plans.
• Extra powers need to be devolved, particularly bus regulation.
• Phase 2 of the Metro will see investment of between £500-600 million by 2020. £125million has been secured from the UK Department of Transport, while £150million is being sought from the EU Regional Development Fund. "Good progress" has been made finding other capital funds. Local authorities will be able to draw some funding from developer (S106) contributions.

Shadow Economy Minister, William Graham (Con, South Wales East), greatly welcomed the announcement (clip), saying it would improve communication and social cohesion, providing a "catalyst for the capital region". He was particularly pleased about the rolling stock commitment, but wanted assurances it would be delivered on time and on budget, as well as details on the fare structure and the impact Metro would have on the M4 Newport bypass.

The Minister said rolling stock was a key issue raised by interested parties, describing current trains as "absolutely appalling". She said the not-for-dividend model could lead to changes in fare structures, though consultation on the final Metro routes would continue. Transport models showed the Metro wouldn't make much difference to M4 traffic and she would share this with the relevant Assembly committee.

Plaid Cymru's economy spokesperson, Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid, Ynys Môn), said the Metro investment and M4 projects shouldn't make other regions feel they're being left out (clip), asking for a final estimated capital cost. He also asked if the M4 black route was holding back investment in the Metro and wanted assurances the Valleys would benefit economically so the impact isn't concentrated in Cardiff.

The Minister told him it's an "aspirational project that needs to be delivered", but it was clear the industry were "up to the the challenge of an integrated franchise". She said 42 companies had expressed interest, and rolling stock companies were looking for manufacturing sites in Wales. She stressed that the Metro wasn't just for Cardiff but the wider capital region, but it was up to local authorities to look at possible new station sites. A forthcoming new All-Wales Transport Plan will make clear commitments outside SE Wales.

Mick Antoniw AM (Lab, Pontypridd) described the project as "inspirational and aspirational" as well as economically and socially transformational (clip). He asked specific questions on the Beddau rail link and massive housing proposals in the Taff-Ely area, also whether there had been further discussions with the European Investment Bank (EIB)?

It was confirmed that Finance Minister, Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan) was working with the EIB. The Minister said the map was a "first stab" and the final proposals will be worked upon, with more detail in the autumn. She stressed the importance of linking housing and industrial areas to public transport, going as far as suggesting planning permission should be refused where there isn't a proper transport assessment.

With much of the focus on rail, there were concerns buses were being
overlooked despite carrying more passengers than trains annually.
(Pic : Wales Online)

Lib Dem economy and transport spokesperson, Eluned Parrott AM (Lib Dem, South Wales Central), said there was much to agree with (clip), but several maps had emerged over the years without a "definitive" final map. Costs can't be properly evaluated without one, while passengers, investors and businesses want to know what the final Metro will look like. Eluned was concerned that rail was taking too much priority over buses and active travel. She asked if the Welsh Government Transport Company would have powers to borrow independent of government (like any other business), why there was an integrated contract (she believes the Metro and rail franchise should be kept separate) and what had changed to make smart ticketing possible now when it was supposed to be introduced by 2014?

The Minister said as there were too many technical questions – an example is given where the Caerphilly Tunnel might have to close for lengthy periods during electrification works – the Welsh Government had to go to the market to get opinions on what needs to be done first. The integrated franchise makes it more attractive to investors as it's a big contract and she wants to avoid having different contracts and arrangements which have "caused chaos" on the rail network elsewhere.

John Griffiths AM (Lab, Newport East) asked for an update on passenger services between Ebbw Vale and Newport (clip) as well as the format of park and ride facilities in Monmouthshire. He also stressed the importance of affordable fares as a priority for those with strained finances.

Edwina said the Welsh Government have "got to look at fares", and suggested that new park and rides could be multi-story car parks as opposed to smaller 30-40 space car parks. On Ebbw Vale-Newport services, timetable studies are underway and there would be an update in the autumn.

Leader of the Opposition, Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central), wanted guarantees that the project would be at an advanced stage by 2020 (clip).

Edwina said it would be the "start of a system", but won't be "all singing, all dancing" by 2020. She did, however, appreciate the cross-party support.

Julie Morgan AM (Lab, Cardiff North) asked if projected population growth in Cardiff had been taken into account (clip), whether there had been discussions with Cardiff Council on how the new bus station would fit in and how the public would be involved?

The Minister welcomed news on the bus station, saying population growth has to be taken into account. On bus services, she said Wales needs powers over bus regulation. Many of the rail groups she's worked with "had a better understanding of timetables than Arriva", adding there had been no final decision on the role of the Cardiff city region with regard the Metro.

Alun Davies AM (Lab, Blaenau Gwent) said that the Metro would "drive sustainable growth in the heads of the valleys region", but too many stops would make the service less valuable and it should be seen as an inter-urban service rather than a commuter service. (clip) He asked if there were timescales on Ebbw Vale frequency enhancement and extensions to Abertillery, and how Network Rail's route plans would be factored in? Edwina said there would be a further update on works in the autumn and the relationship with Network Rail will be discussed to make sure they're working to the same agenda.

Finally, Nick Ramsay AM (Con, Monmouth) said the latest map had connections to Ebbw Vale and Chepstow but not Monmouth itself (clip). The Minister said initial discussions on including Monmouth had taken place, and it's on the agenda for an upcoming meeting with the leader of Monmouthshire Council.

Call me Nostradumbass?
(Pic : Me, click to enlarge)

I wrote The Welsh Metro in March 2011, about a year before the original announcement of the project was made. It consistently remains one of my most popular blogs. My speculative "Capital Connect"  map (above) is even similar to the one produced for the Metro project a few years later - it's a case of the potential being obvious, I'm not suggesting I had any influence.

I'm delighted there's some real progress being made, but I'm going to be nothing more than cautiously optimistic until there are shovels in the ground. We've had a lot of talk, and a lot of involvement by consultants and committees so far, but little action.

The most positive announcements are confirmation that there would be a smart ticketing system, rolling stock will be upgraded (with hints they could be replaced by new build trains in the longer term) and that both the rail franchise and the Metro will be run as a not-for-profit – which means, potentially, a greater focus on service investment instead of profit-making.

Despite this, as Eluned Parrott pointed out we still don't have a final map of the project (in particular bus rapid transit routes) and we still don't know what the Metro would look like – Will there be trams? Will it be a heavy rail S-Bahn system (as it is currently)? How will buses and cycling be properly integrated? There's still quite a lot of work to do, so this isn't a "green light" but still a big step forward.

Also, "South Wales Metro" is a bit of a misnomer. It should probably be called Cardiff Capital Region Metro. That shouldn't take away anything from the announcement, but Wales is Wales and if someone can find something moan about they will moan about it.

There's scope for some sort of integrated transport system in NE Wales and Merseyside. Plus, with the bendy buses/FTR being withdrawn from Swansea, there's the potential to explore a tram system along the same route, perhaps utilising existing freight-only rail lines to include Port Talbot, Neath and the Neath Valley. That's one for the medium to long-term though.

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Bridge Over Troubled Water

While the Welsh Government and CBI have said the Newport M4 "Hart Bypass" will boost the economy,
does the Port of Newport - which supports 3,000 jobs - stand to be one of the economic losers?
(Pic : South Wales Argus)

After Friends of the Earth Cymru's recent unsuccessful bid to stall the Newport M4 bypass, you would've thought that would be that. However, projects of this scale will always generate their fair share of problems, and I suspect the hurdles this particular project has to clear (political and physical) are beginning to become more obvious.

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Assembly takes a ride on Heavy Metal

Heavy metal? Or no metal at all?
(Pic : Paul Webb via pickledimages.co.uk)

The last plenary session before Easter recess was held yesterday, and I've picked out two debates to cover. Today, I'll look at a members debate on the steel industry, while the Assembly also went south of heaven - I'll (hopefully) return to that tomorrow.

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Gissa Job : Assisting Young People Into Work

An Assembly committee has investigated the barriers facing young people as they enter the
world of work, as well as assessing Welsh Government actions to reduce youth unemployment.
(Pic : The Guardian)

Another tome, I'm afraid. All part of the service.

Last week, the Enterprise & Business Committee published their report into how young people find  work (pdf). This is particularly important as quoted statistics underline how hard young people have been hit by the recession - up to 18% of 18-24 year olds were unemployed in 2014 compared to just 4.4% of 35-49 year olds.

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Hart Bypass returns to the Assembly

The issue of the Newport bypass has returned to the Senedd, and the
Environment Committee had a few choice words for Edwina Hart and the CBI.
(Pic : Wales Online)

• Welsh Government's reprioritised National Transport Plan (7.12.11)
• M4 Newport consultation and rail upgrades in Gwent (11.3.12)
• A Cunning Infrastructure Plan (26.5.12)
• Newport's M4 coronary bypass (5.10.13)
• Cold and drafty Wales Bill (7.1.14)
• Newport's M4 debate painted black and blue (10.7.14)
• Newport M4 - Smell the Glove (17.7.14)
• Newport M4 : The Committee Strikes Back (21.7.14)
• M4 Newport : Edwina's Response (25.9.14)

It's back again....

Yesterday, the National Assembly debated the Environment Committee report into the proposed M4 bypass of Newport (Newport M4 : The Committee Strikes Back [pdf]) and the Welsh Government's response (M4 Newport – Edwina's Response [pdf]).

The Senedd's Heart to Hart

Committee Chair, Alun Ffred Jones AM (Plaid, Arfon), started by saying this project was, "the biggest decision the Welsh Government will take". The Committee haven't drawn any conclusions on merits of particular options, but serious, unanswered questions remained on whether the consultation process met strategic EU directives.

Alun said one issue "not given due attention" was the impact of electrification of the south Wales mainline and the South Wales Metro. The Committee believe these proposals weren't taken into account adequately when considering future travel patterns. He said the total costs of the bypass remain unclear, and funding sources were, "shrouded in uncertainty". He concluded that on basis of current information, the long-term value for money case is yet to be made.

Mick Antoniw AM (Lab, Pontypridd) said the traffic figures from the UK Department of Transport (DfT)– which formed a foundation for the case for the bypass by projecting a 20% increase in traffic – was out of date, and that the latest figures have shown a plateau in general M4 traffic. He said the Committee couldn't get further details from DfT. Mick said it was "of some concern" that the CBI – one of the main private sector proponents of the bypass - failed to respond to six requests to give evidence when the Committee were trying to evaluate the business case.

Antoinette Sandbach AM (Con, North Wales) described this as an "extremely important inquiry", echoing concerns that the CBI didn't contribute to the inquiry in written or oral form. She also criticised the Minister, as she was asked several times to give evidence but turned it down. This is in light of previous criticism in chamber on the way this has been handled.

Antoinette said there were "grave concerns" over the consultation process, in particular the lack of distinction between the three options and the exclusion of the Blue Route. She said it was important that the Welsh Government were "above reproach" on this due to international significance of Gwent Levels, and there was a lack of public confidence in way the process was handled. Antoinette said the Minister hasn't been prepared to be "transparent and scrutinised properly" on this, and she doesn't believe the Minister, "has the support of the public for this project".

Llyr Gruffydd AM (Plaid, North Wales) was also disappointed the Minister didn't give evidence on the route options or financing. This meant the Committee was prevented from scrutinising a scheme that has major financial and environmental impacts. He suggested there were "serious problems with statutory decision-making process", which meant the Committee were unable to scrutinise acutal costs.

Llyr believes the financial detail of scheme should be more widely known to ensure scrutiny on the basis of value for money, with the quoted costs having a massive margin of error, standing between £600million and £1billion. He said adopting the black route, "gave the impression to the people of Wales that it was a done deal" when there's a long way to go.

William Powell AM (Lib Dem, Mid & West Wales) said the Assembly's committees perform a key role in scrutinising policy, which is made all the more difficult "when government doesn't participate on their (the Committee's) terms". William also criticised CBI, saying you can read their op-eds in the Western Mail but they were unwilling to give evidence to the Assembly itself.

He said it was "beyond question" that the M4 through Newport isn't fit for purpose, but all options need to be considered. He said it was a shame the answers came so belated from the Minister. However, he said the Blue Route is as open to debate as the Black Route and we should, "let the evidence speak for itself". Williams also stressed the need for other solutions, emphasising that people need to get people out of cars and onto integrated public transport.

Julie Morgan AM (Lab, Cardiff North) said it was an "annoying and frustrating experience" dealing with the report due to CBI's absence, which "showed disrespect to the Committee". She welcomed the future detailed environmental impact study and the fact no construction will take place until after the 2016 elections, which gives the Assembly "time to have debates on all the options".

She said every effort should be made to avoid the "disastrous impact" on the environment, but they also need clarification on how much of the borrowing will be spent on the bypass. She also said comments (from the First Minister - clip of the FMQs exchange on 30th September 2014) about traffic lights on the Blue Route were irrelevant as they would be replaced by grade separated junctions.

Russell George AM (Con, Montgomery) was....surprise,surprise....disappointed the CBI didn't give evidence. He added his view that the Welsh Government ignored the environmental concerns and that any Newport bypass would have a knock-on impact on infrastructure projects in the rest of Wales – picking out improvements to the A55 and A40 in particular. Russell accused the Welsh Government of failing to look at Welsh transport infrastructure "in the round".

Former Environment Minister, John Griffiths AM (Lab, Newport East), said the Gwent Levels are unique, and that their importance and historical significance are "beyond doubt". Although he's now one of the more high profile opponents to the bypass, he said he didn't support the Blue Route either due to the possible air pollution and noise problems an urban expressway would cause. John would prefer "carrot and stick" public transport solutions.

He also raised the valid point that there's a new environment since the Scottish referendum, offering veiled criticism of the UK Government's caveat that early access to borrowing be dependent on funding a bypass.

In her response, the Minister for Economy & Transport, Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower), said her letter addressed the Committee's concerns. She regretted not giving evidence in person, but the statutory decision-making process is "very strict" and she repeated her defence that she couldn't give evidence until after the consultation. She agreed with William Powell that this process may need "looking at".

She confirmed the Welsh Government have submitted their defence to Friends of the Earth Cymru's legal challenge and they're waiting for the court's decision. Edwina also confirmed that no detailed design work will be until after a full environmental impact assessment, and she expects more detailed financial information to be provided at any future public inquiry (which will take place in late 2016/early 2017).

Unsurprisingly, she said it would be inappropriate for her to comment further on other matters while these processes were ongoing.

Concluding the debate, Alun Ffred Jones said he was disappointed the government "always has a reason for not giving details or answering basic questions", and he was "none the wiser" after the Minister's response.

He said the Committee weren't opposed to finding a solution to the Newport problems; but it has to be the right decision after all reasonable options have been considered, and because it would have a knock-on impact to infrastructure spending. The Committee simply wanted to, "ask pertinent questions about the process and not discuss the merits of the routes".

He therefore upheld the Committee's recommendation that the Welsh Government should restart the consultation process with all of the route options included.

Total Eclipse of the Hart

The Black Route isn't quite a done deal yet.
(Pic : M4 Newport website/Me)

Some very large obstacles were placed in the way of the Environment Committee in the process of this inquiry.

Firstly, Edwina Hart and the CBI refusing to give evidence; secondly, Plaid Cymru's predetermined support for the Blue Route which threw everything off balance; and thirdly, the sudden/curt announcement from the Minister in July that the Black Route has been selected.

The Blue Route isn't quite dead yet, but you get the impression the Minister is doing her best to kill it off. It seems the only way you can get comprehensive responses from the Welsh Government nowadays is a Daily Mail headline.

Having said that, the media – maybe myself included – might have given the impression that the Black Route is (as Llyr Gruffydd pointed out) "a done deal". That's wrong. All that's happened is the principle of a complete M4 bypass of Newport that follows the black route has been agreed, but the design could change significantly between now and the start of construction, depending on the outcome of the further environmental reports and any future public inquiry.

The problems facing the Black Route continue to mount. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the environmental impact report will make grim reading and lead to serious questioning of the Welsh Government's supposed commitment to *groan* "sustainable development".

Secondly, there seems to be growing opposition amongst Labour backbenchers to the project – notably from John Griffiths and Alun Davies AM (Lab, Blaenau Gwent), who are two former ministers with responsibility for the environment. You can probably include Julie Morgan and Jenny Rathbone AM (Lab, Cardiff Central) in there too, while Mick Antoniw has reservations by the sound of it.

Thirdly, as the South Wales Argus have covered, Newport Docks is going to have a whacking great big bridge built over it. I'd like to think that someone would've considered whether that proposal might have an impact on port operations. Newport Docks is Wales' most important cargo port and according to ITV Wales supports some 3,000 jobs.

Last but not least, as you might've noticed, the CBI were rightfully given a kicking from all quarters. When you consider they're often mouthing off to the press about the state of Wales, the fact they couldn't be bothered to give evidence on something they consider so vital - so important that it stands to become the single largest capital investment a Welsh Government will ever make - was nothing less than an insult to all of us. Up yours, Digby.

I certainly respect the work the Assembly's committees do, and it's not as if the CBI would ever consider snubbing a Westminster equivalent.

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Science skills under the microscope

We do what we must because we can.
(Pic : wallpaperbeautiful.com)

The National Assembly's Enterprise & Business Committee recently reported back on their follow-up inquiry into science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) skills (pdf).

They made 14 recommendations, broadly summarised as :

• Continue to prioritise promotion of STEM subjects through the National Science Academy, using early interventions to inspire Welsh schoolchildren into STEM subjects and careers (especially from year 7 onwards).
• Change the computing curriculum to ensure Wales can produce those with the right ICT skills in the future.
• Ensure the Welsh Baccalaureate provides higher-quality STEM work experience placements.
• Improve teacher training : providing primary school teachers who possess weak science skills with training, and providing secondary school teachers and lecturers with experience of what STEM businesses and industries do.
• Target interventions at girls so they can "achieve their full potential in STEM subjects" and also work with STEM employers to create more family-friendly working environments.
• Address lack of STEM teaching materials in Welsh.

Background to the Inquiry

Demand for science and technology graduates is set to explode over the
coming decade, but Wales - as usual - is struggling to keep up.
(Pic : Cranfield University)

Get used to hearing about the "knowledge-based economy". Demand for biological science graduates is expected to rise by 122% between now and 2022, matched with demand for graduates in engineering (+56%), maths and computer science (+96%), medicine (+36%), environmental science (+48%) and technology (+80%).

It's absolutely essential that Wales starts to value STEM subjects for the sake of our economy, but "progress....has been slow".

With the Donaldson curriculum review ongoing, the Committee decided this was a good time to revisit how STEM is approached in Wales following a previous inquiry in 2011, and determine what improvements are necessary. The Committee also conducted web chats with STEM students and academics in Wales.

Perceptions of STEM subjects remain poor – "geeky", "a subject for boys". This needs to be changed into a more positive, gender-neutral portrayal, alongside improvements to how STEM subjects are taught to both pupils and teachers.

Dr Tom Crick - a computing expert from Cardiff Metropolitan University and science communication campaigner – said there was a "push-pull problem" in that Wales lacks high-skilled graduates, but at the same time the industry isn't here to attract them so any STEM graduates we do produce move elsewhere. Lack of STEM job opportunities were picked up by students on the web chats, who said it puts peers off pursuing STEM careers.

It's not only sciences and engineering where STEM skills are essential. Dr. Crick points out that the "technology" part is very sought after in the creative industries (another "key growth sector") – whether that's television production or gaming.

Sêr Cymru & The National Science Academy

• Sêr Cymru – A new science strategy for Wales

Sêr Cymru is a £50million fund to attract and retain science talent at Welsh universities. Higher Education Wales (HEW) couldn't praise it enough, saying it was, "bold....big" and "challenged us (HEW) to do things we would not be doing on our own." However, they had concerns that there wasn't enough outreach work through the National Science Academy (NSA).

The NSA isn't a bricks and mortar science academy. It's a Welsh Government initiative set up in 2010 to co-ordinate STEM outreach programmes in hubs across Wales, which includes organisations like Cardiff-based Techniquest, the Machynlleth-based Centre for Alternative Technology and the National Botanic Gardens in Carmarthenshire.

There was confusion about what the hubs are supposed to do. The Higher Education Funding Council for Wales (HEFCW) said NSA hub meetings hadn't been held for a long time, and they wondered if it was really meeting the objectives laid out in government science strategy.

The Welsh Government's Chief Scientific Adviser is Alzheimer's disease researcher, Prof. Julie Williams. She told the Committee she was reviewing the future role of the NSA – which she says is "to enthuse (about science)" – and the Welsh Government said that the NSA will soon,"have a new lease of life."

STEM in Schools

Science does have a (sometimes well-deserved) reputation of
being a stuffy, dangerous and boring subject.

• Science in Welsh schools
• Schools without books? Learning 2.0

The web chats provided the Committee with an insight into issues facing STEM students. Most said they chose to study their subjects because of an interest in the subject itself rather than job prospects. However, perceptions that STEM subjects are "hard" and "geeky" remain, though female students, at least, said schools encouraged them to do what they liked without any hint of gender bias.

It was said pupils should be encouraged to look at STEM subjects and careers as early as Foundation Phase. The students agreed, saying that there needed to be an "innovative, practical and thought-provoking curriculum" – possibly making use of inspirational guest speakers at all levels of education. Education Minister, Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney), agreed that students should engage with STEM as "early as possible".

Although he said computing was often overlooked in the STEM agenda, Dr Tom Crick said the Technocamps project – in partnership with three Welsh universities – has made "a profound effect in addressing attitudes towards computing in the convergence (Objective One) area for pupils aged 11-19". He said it was one of the most successful European Social Fund projects and increased the potential for STEM subjects to be studied at school in deprived areas.

He played a part in a review of the ICT curriculum, and the recommendations included separating computing as a subject and embedding computer literacy into the curriculum in the same way as literacy and numeracy. Huw Lewis said he was wary of making "hasty decisions" on the future of computing as a school subject.

There are specific problems with recruitment and retention of physics teachers in Wales, as highlighted by the Institute of Physics.

The numbers of teachers registered with the General Teaching Council for Wales who aren't trained in the subject they're teaching are shocking – 51% for physics, 45% chemistry, 37% biology, 90% engineering.

Maths does better, with the figure at just over 16%. There were concerns though that the creation of an extra maths GCSE in Wales could lead to a shortage of specialist subject teachers.

The solutions include improved Continuing Personal Development (CPD), but Techinquest raised concerns that there's not enough cover to allow teachers to attend CPD courses. The web chat students also indicated that they would prefer to be taught by teachers who have practical experience in their field of study.

STEM Careers

• Wales : An Economic Profile II - Manufacturing & Technology

Careers Wales has been absorbed into the Welsh Government. It's now purely an advice service and no longer sets up work experience placements. The students said finding appropriate STEM work experience placements is "problematic" – especially in fields like medicine, usually organised by students themselves.

There was plenty of criticism of STEM careers advice, which never fully explores career opportunities in maths and physics, and reduces biological sciences to medicine and dentistry - whilst ignoring research. Perceptions that construction was a low-skill profession needed to be changed too.

Careers Wales defended itself by saying it's supposed to be "independent and impartial" and not favour one sector over another. However, they accept that they have some weaknesses and that careers advice should be offered sooner – as early as year 7.

Industry bodies weren't complimentary about skill gaps, especially numeracy. HEW said there was a "poverty of ambition" in some schools as they don't follow the full syllabus in the double science GCSE, meaning separate science students have a clear advantage at A-Level. They even described not offering double mathematics at A-Level as "criminal".

Many students meet the entry requirements to study subjects like physics but often lack the mathematical skills - even when the subject is intensely maths-based. Some witnesses believed this was because pupils were being taught to pass exams not acquire knowledge. However, Aberystwyth University said the numbers applying to study maths and physics are increasing, with no drop in the quality of students.

STEM in Further & Higher Education

Lab-based science courses are very expensive to provide, and changes
to university funding arrangements are said to "disincentivise" providing them.
(Pic : Cardiff University)

Science courses are very technology-dependent and more expensive to provide than the liberal arts. Colleges Wales say they need continued capital investment in modern laboratories, while Aberystwyth University expressed concern at funding gaps between Wales and the rest of the UK.

HEFCW said current funding arrangements are a "disincentive" to provide STEM courses. They cite figures which say it costs £10,000 to put a student through an engineering or laboratory science degree, compared to the £7,500 universities receive. The Welsh Government say they'll put an extra £200million into STEM over the course of the Fourth Assembly compared to the previous funding arrangements.

HEW believe they're receiving "mixed messages" from the Welsh Government who, on the one hand, want to increase the number of STEM students and graduates, but at the same time are incentivising low-cost courses.

Also, student debt and fee changes are making it much more difficult to fill postgraduate course places – which industry say they need, but students and universities increasingly can't afford. HEFCW say that decision-makers are spending too much time worrying about undergraduate tuition fees, when the economy's future relies more on postgraduates and doctorates.

Gender & Language

• Why are girls turning their backs on science?

As I've pointed out previously (link above), women and girls are under-represented in STEM subjects. Although girls and young women take life sciences in near enough the same - or greater - numbers as boys, in physical sciences and computing, boys and men significantly outnumber girls.

In 2013, only 18% of A-Level physics and 12% of A-Level computing entries were from girls. This continues into higher education with 81% of veterinary medicine and 82% of medicine-related entries from women, yet they make up just 22% of computing entries and 13% for engineering & technology. In 2013, just 11.6% of people employed in STEM-related fields were women.

Chwarae Teg believe a lack of self-confidence is holding women back in STEM fields. They say the equality argument won't necessarily work here, and therefore the impact on the economy (which is what I said in my last post) is the better argument : why are the 50% of the population who statistically do better in education not making up the numbers in academically-rigorous disciplines?

The Institute of Physics research pointed out gender stereotyping where girls don't take subjects dominated by boys (and vice versa). Some female students in the web chats described physics as "boring" and "more interesting to boys as they're more interested in engineering careers".

The key overarching recommendation here is early intervention to make sure younger girls know they have the same opportunities for a STEM career as boys, and this could be done through female mentors and increasing the number of women lecturers.

Turning to the language issue, the establishment of Coleg Cenedlaethol Cymru has been "an unqualified success", but they said they had no input into science strategy or the NSA.

Limited progress has been made in providing teaching materials for STEM subjects through the medium of Welsh, while Colleges Wales said there was a lack of lecturers with both professional STEM qualifications and Welsh fluency. Huw Lewis underlined a shortage of Welsh-medium physics teachers in particular.

I'm making a note here : HUGE SUCCESS

This never gets me out of trouble.

I've shown blatant favouritism towards this Assembly committee in the past, but this inquiry's directly relevant to me for once.I have to say it though, it's another excellent inquiry from the galacticos of the Assembly committee system.

STEM subjects are "hard" and "geeky" and there's absolutely no way in hell that's ever going to change. You need a certain personality to go far in the sciences, and it's not for everyone, even as it becomes more economically important. If you're good at what you do though, science and engineering can be very meritocratic.

As I've said previously, I can vouch for the fact that life sciences are dominated by women. I've been taught by brilliant women science teachers and lecturers who are as enthused and knowledgeable about their subject area as any man. Any suggestion that women "can't do science" is - in the correct terminology - absolute bollocks. Girls are holding themselves back, but that's their choice.

I have personal experience of lack of STEM job opportunities in Wales, despite it constantly being held up as a key growth sector. There's a dearth of trainee graduate level roles, and most science positions are either entry-level or require postgraduate qualifications. So it's often a choice between being an under-employed lab technician or a blue chip researcher - no in between. Until masters degrees and doctorates become more affordable and more widely available, Muggins here, and many others like me, will be stuck in purgatory.

Science, computing and engineering careers often pay relatively badly for the level of skills and qualifications required, so it's no wonder many kids might turn their noses up. You can earn more as an estate agent or recruitment consultant with school leaver qualifications than you ever would with a doctorate in particle physics. The cake is a lie.

Sêr Cymru is probably one of the best policies from the Welsh Government during the Fourth Assembly. The jobs are there and starting to come through – local examples include stem-cell company ReNeuron, Adam Price's specialist search engine Ideoba (both in Pencoed), alongside the Wales Wound Innovation Centre in Llantrisant. But they're not being created in the sorts of numbers that'll make a truly significant economic impact for a while yet.

The teaching figures shocked me. I always thought to be a secondary school science teacher you had to have a science degree full stop. In some cases it's probably very easy to teach more than one subject as long as you have enough grounding in the cross-curricular basics – maths & physics, biology & geography, for example. But I never knew Welsh schools were flying by the seat of their pants to this extent. It's probably the most worrying finding from this inquiry.

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M4 Newport : Edwina's Response

With Edwina Hart responding to Assembly committee concerns and a legal
challenge imminent, it's worth drawing a picture of where the battle lines are.
(Pic : South Wales Argus)

• Welsh Government's reprioritised National Transport Plan (7.12.11)
• M4 Newport consultation and rail upgrades in Gwent (11.3.12)
• A Cunning Infrastructure Plan (26.5.12)
• Newport's M4 coronary bypass (5.10.13)
• Cold and drafty Wales Bill (7.1.14)
• Newport's M4 debate painted black and blue (10.7.14)
• Newport M4 - Smell the Glove (17.7.14)
• Newport M4 : The Committee Strikes Back (21.7.14)

There's been a bit more news on the £1billion Newport bypass front. As some of you will remember, the National Assembly's Environment & Sustainability Committee wrote to the minister in charge, Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower), back in July setting out a number of concerns.

In the last week or so, Edwina has responded to the Committee (pdf).

In the interests of balance - and to ensure that everyone can go into this fully informed - it's worth taking a look at what the Minister said in response to the Committee's letter, and how she came to justify the decision on the Welsh Government's behalf.

Additionally, Friends of the Earth Cymru officially launched their legal challenge – via a judicial review – on Tuesday (23rd September).

The route selection process

Committee : In the first consultation (2011-12 M4CEM), a completely new motorway wasn't included as an option. The change in heart since suggests the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) process hasn't been followed correctly.

Edwina Hart : The Welsh Government used their "appropriate and recognised" WelTAG guidance process (pdf - large file). What's considered a reasonable alternative route under the SEA process is down to the decision-maker, but the SEA also allows a choice based on the objectives the decision-maker wants to meet. The Minister admits that the new fiscal powers offered by Westminster prompted a revisit to a full M4 bypass of Newport as an option.

The choice of route

Committee : The route choices for an M4 bypass were too similar to each other to "allow a meaningful comparison as required by the SEA directive". It also hasn't been made clear whether the Blue Route has been fully assessed by the Welsh Government to SEA standards.

Edwina Hart : None of the alternatives were considered "reasonable alternatives" in line with SEA regulations. She says the Blue Route wouldn't have been "sufficiently attractive to relieve M4 traffic", would cost £600million (rather than the £380million estimate) and would cause problems at connecting roads. It would also require significant land acquisition, and wouldn't meet the strategic objectives.

The environmental report

Committee : Natural Resources Wales (NRW) say some of the concerns they raised weren't included in the final environment report. NRW flatly disagree with many of the conclusions in said report, which underplayed the impact on biodiversity, and provided incomplete assessments of greenhouse gas emissions, water quality, landscape and town scape impacts.

Edwina Hart : Environmental concerns and possible mitigation measures have been taken into account during the Environmental Impact Assessment process. NRW's comments were taken into consideration during the drafting of the environmental report.

Consideration of public transport

Committee : Possible public transport options and the South Wales Metro scheme haven't been given full consideration. They should've been weighted directly alongside the M4 proposals as they could have a big impact on the underlying case for a bypass.

Edwina Hart : The M4 bypass will complement the South Wales Metro scheme, but increased public transport use won't solve the problems on the M4. Studies undertaken during the planning process showed that even if public transport use increased by 100%, it would only reduce Newport M4 traffic by 5% (Owen : I'm presuming this is because of the number of lorries using the M4).

Validity of traffic forecasts

Committee : Traffic forecasts on the M4 are produced using the UK's Department for Transport (DfT) forecasting methodology, but this methodology has – according to leading academics – predicted big growths in traffic volumes and car ownership when levels have actually remained flat. If traffic growth doesn't match the DfT's unreliable forecasts then the M4 bypass will be a waste of money. So the case for a bypass is partly reliant on traffic increasing.

Edwina Hart : Traffic volumes have returned to pre-recession levels after levelling off during the recesson itself. A new report on the traffic projection figures has been included on the Newport M4 website (pdf). She believes claims that current traffic projections mean a bypass won't improve traffic flows are "incorrect", and the plans are a "sustainable, long-term solution to the problems."

Costs

Committee : The proposed capital borrowing limit as set out in the Wales Bill (£500million) is only half the estimated total cost of the scheme. Therefore, there's a lack of clarity on how future borrowing powers would be used, and the impact the bypass would have on finances available for transport projects like the Metro. The Committee say it's "difficult to conclude....that a convincing case for the long-term value for money of this investment has been made".

Edwina Hart : The £1billion price tag includes the costs of environmental mitigation measures. Before the Welsh Government commits to construction, the cost estimates will be carefully managed, and the aim will be to reduce costs wherever possible. It's claimed every £1 spent will result in a £2.29 economic return. The Welsh Government won't be committing all of their borrowing powers to the scheme, as they'll use block grant/capital funding too; though it's too early to say precisely how the scheme would be financed, as it depends on the final cost.

I think it's safe to say that we now have a more complete picture of both sides of the argument.

The minister has given some concise and assured answers to the Committee's questions, with the exception of her response to the traffic projection figures.

Those figures are the statistical case for the bypass, and although Edwina linked to the figures themselves, the fact she brushed the issue off with a political back swing (talk of "long term solutions" and "sustainability") tells me that's where the big weakness is in the case, and will probably be one part of Friends of the Earth Cymru's legal line of attack.

I'll let you make your own mind up.

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