Road to Somewhere?

With the latest section of the A465 dualling project set to fully open soon,
it's worth reflecting on the short-term and long-term impact.
(Pic : a465brynmawr2tredegar.co.uk)

The latest section in the long-running project to dual the Heads of the Valleys road (A465) between Abergavenny and Hirwaun is due to fully open imminently (it's been partially open for a few weeks now). Section 3, which runs between Tredegar and Brynmawr, has cost £158million, with £80million of that coming from the EU.

The £220million Section 2 - which will run between Gilwern and Brynmawr via the Clydach Gorge - is currently under construction. When completed in 2018, it'll mean there'll be a near motorway-standard dual carriageway between Abergavenny and Merthyr Tydfil.

The final two sections – 5 & 6 – will upgrade the existing A465 north of Merthyr and link with the current dual carriageway at Hirwaun. It's hinted these sections will be a single contract, but once completed - aside from a few at-grade roundabouts which could be replaced in the long-term - it'll provide a high quality road link from the M50 (and the English Midlands) to Swansea.

In effect it'll be a bypass of the south Wales valleys, providing alternative access to the Brecon Beacons, as well as enabling the 250,000 people living in the defined Heads of the Valleys area to access jobs more quickly in adjoining valleys and further afield. According to the economic assessment of Section 2, the number of jobs in the region could increase by 6.3% (pdf p6)

Although it's long been hailed as The Most Important Road in the World Ever™ by local AMs and other politicians, the project (as a whole) is important for a number of reasons, which aren't necessarily linked to the road itself and could have long-term ramifications for other infrastructure projects.

To start with, in terms of the cost-benefit ratio (CBR), the scheme is very poor value for money but was given the go ahead primarily for social reasons. If you want me to be technical the CBR for the sections planned or built so far has been between 1 and 1.7 (for every £1 spent, between £1 and £1.70 will be generated for the economy). Projects of this magnitude are rarely given the go ahead if the CBR is below 2.

It's fair to say that politics will have played as much a role in the project as economics. Aside from places like Rhyl West, the region is home to neighbourhoods with some of the most entrenched poverty in Great Britain.

Anyway, this fact should hearten campaigners looking to reopen the Carmarthen-Aberystwyth railway, because it's likely to find itself in the same situation – a socially important project that would be hard to justify economically. There'll be some explaining to do if one project is justified while the other isn't.

Contractors and the Welsh Government have taken steps to minimise the environmental
impact in a very sensitive area - an approach seemingly abandoned in Newport.
(Pic : South Wales Argus)

Next, there's the fact there's been very little opposition to the project (as far as I can tell). There have been objections about the precise route as it skims the southern edge of the Brecon Beacons National Park (while the Clydach Gorge lies within the park) but no protests on the scale as those seen in relation to the proposed Newport bypass.

That could be for a number of reasons such as : the absence of any significant cross-valley public transport, the poor safety record of the current A465 (dualling should help reduce accidents, which are a fairly regular occurance on the road), the number of apprenticeships created and some of the steps taken by contractors to mitigate environmental impacts - such as landmark bridges and "split level" roads in the gorge.

The approach to the problem of A465 improvement has also been notably different from the prevailing orthodoxy. Usually, when a road is congested or unsafe, the standard option is to build a completely new alignment with a higher capacity. In this case, apart from a few sections, the option has been to increase capacity on the existing road.

Increasing capacity on existing roads rather than building completely new ones is a very different approach to the one Labour want to take in Newport. You can say that's for practical reasons as there's little room for a completely new alignment in the valleys, but you can also say it's an approach that should be taken elsewhere, and forms a crux of the argument supporting the Blue Route in Newport.

Not wanting to get too off track, but the quality of some of the stories on the Western Mail's online offering, Wales Online, has been absolutely terrible over the last few months and NUJ concerns are worth listening to. Nevertheless, amongst the click-bait stuff was this article on Wales' most dangerous roundabouts. The South Wales Evening Post suggests that up to five of them are in Carmarthenshire, and two of the most dangerous are on the A48, which also has notorious junctions that involve crossing the central reservation.

The principle that existing roads should be upgraded to accommodate higher-speed traffic could/should
be extended to other trunk roads, such as the dangerous stretch of the A48 through Carmarthenshire.
(Pic : South Wales Evening Post)

If the principle that existing roads should be upgraded were extended, then it makes sense to grade separate as many junctions along the A48 between Pont Abraham and Carmarthen as possible, effectively extending the M4 to Carmarthen, and perhaps in the long-term, eventually extending it to Haverfordwest along the existing alignment. The same goes for the A55 and remaining at-grade junctions on the A465.

Last but not least, perhaps the most important impact this project has made, and will continue to make in the future, is the funding model.

The funding model for the A465 project (and others, particularly new schools) is heavily reminiscent of Plaid Cymru's - at the time much-derided - Build for Wales proposal from former Deputy First Minister, Ieuan Wyn Jones.

The Non-profit Distributing Model (NPD) is an alternative to the damaging Private Finance Initiative (PFI),  which was much vaunted during the Tony Blair years and has left some public service providers in England with crippling debts.

Pioneered in Scotland, NPD involves the creation of a "special purpose vehicle" (SPV) to deliver projects for the government. The SPV raises the money privately in the form of loans or their own capital, and the government then pays them back over subsequent years. Unlike PFI, the profits SPVs can make are capped, and any extra profit the project makes is re-invested.

It means major infrastructure projects can be brought forward and the government doesn't have to wait for capital funds to become available – perfect if you don't have borrowing powers or if capital budgets have been cut. Debts are also managed more easily, but the projects are less likely to attract many takers.

It remains to be seen if the A465 dualling will really become a road paved with gold, but it's already enabling other flagship projects, the most notable being the Circuit of Wales ( Short Circuit ), which – judging by recent press stories – looks closer to happening than not happening.

The long-standing timetable to complete the project is 2020, and although that deadline looks likely to be missed, it's not likely to be missed by much.

2022-2024 might be more realistic, and considering the complexity of some parts of the route, a delay should be acceptable and understandable. This may, in future, be looked back upon as a rare case of economic competence from the Welsh Government, and an example of risk-taking which may pay off in the long-run.