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| (Pic : The Telegraph) |
Nevertheless, there's always a very serious danger in letting the heart rule the head. Throwing open the door to anyone and everyone would be foolish, slamming the door shut would be a cold dereliction of duty. We've seen examples of both over the last few weeks.
Despite "Mutti" Merkel originally opening her arms to take in the fleeing masses,Germany activated Article 2.2 of the Schengen Agreement (which governs free movement between EU nations on mainland Europe) to reintroduce border controls with Austria last weekend.
At first glance, Hungary's response appears brutal and reactionary - and it is - but it's worth seeing it from their perspective for a moment. It's clear very few refugees want to stay there. Hungary and the Balkans have to cope with being the doormat to northern and western Europe whilst not being the wealthiest nations themselves, and have received little help from the rest of the EU.
It's hard to expect them to provide food and shelter to wave after wave of those fleeing, not only a war with multiple fronts, but a situation where their own government would be happy to let them die in order to cling to power. Anyone impeding their escape will, naturally, not be considered friendly.
Despite the lack of a formal debate – drawing complaints from opposition AMs - the refugee crisis dominated the first FMQs following summer recess ahead of a Welsh crisis summit held today.
Ann Jones AM (Lab, Vale of Clwyd) asked the First Minister for an update on Wales' response. He said the summit on Thursday (today) would include key service providers in order to co-ordinate a Wales-wide approach.
Ann praised Carwyn's leadership, hailing him being the first leader to say "we will play our part", building upon Wales' "proud tradition of multiculturalism".
The First Minister said it was important to make a statement even if it was a non-devolved, non party-political, issue (as other parties had said the same thing). The summit will involve local authorities and agencies responsible for resettlement in order to figure out what the challenges are and what help can be provided.
Jeff Cuthbert AM (Lab, Caerphilly) asked if the First Minister would congratulate people around Wales who've collected provisions for refugees. He said Wales was "far ahead" in terms of compassion and sense of duty.
Carwyn echoed the congratulations, saying he regretted that the Prime Minister was "laggardly in his response" – prompting groans from the Tories. "We cannot bury our head in the sand" when people try to seek safety in unseaworthy craft, describing it as the "greatest humanitarian crises to hit Europe since end of World War II".
Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood AM (Plaid, South Wales Central), repeated calls Plaid made in April, asking the First Minister if he would be prepared to support a cross-party approach to alleviating what was then called the Mediterranean migrant crisis. She also asked if he supported a quota on refugees?
The First Minister said he supports quotas in principle, but the summit wasn't about agreeing a number of people, it was to ensure the public sector is ready to resettle refugees when the time comes. It was natural that people will flee war zones to find somewhere peaceful and "we can't pretend the UK is cut off from the rest of the world".
Mohammad Ashgar AM (Con, South Wales East) said Newport is a designated dispersal area for asylum-seekers and numbers had doubled in three years. He asked if UK funding would be directed towards such areas?
Carwyn told Mohammad that if the UK were committed to funding resettlement, the money would be spent for that purpose. He doesn't like the term "asylum-seeker" though as he believes it's become a term of prejudice.
Another Newport-based AM, John Griffiths AM (Lab, Newport East) – as well as Eluned Parrott AM (Lib Dem, South Wales Central) – both said constituents had made enquiries on how to help refugees or to offer accommodation. John asked if there was official guidance, while Eluned Parrott proposed a central database for the public to offer shelter to refugees.
Carwyn said guidance (on working with refugees) would be discussed at the summit, saying everyone on "this island" is the descendant of an immigrant - the only question being when they arrived and what the cut-off date would be. With regard the database idea, he said it was "interesting" and it was important people know how to go about offering shelter if they want to.
William Powell AM (Lib Dem, Mid & West Wales) queried the support health boards could expect to receive in order to deal with the health needs of refugees fleeing "unimaginable trauma"? The First Minister told him it was important to make an assessment of what needs to be done and at what cost; a statement will be issued after the summit.
Simon Thomas AM (Plaid, Mid & West Wales) welcomed what had been said, but suggested Home Office guidance to refugees was incorrect and referred people to organisations that can't help them. Although immigration is non-devolved; education, health and housing are. He underlined the need for a "Welsh welcome and Welsh provision", expressing concerns that the UK Government hadn't taken into account the impact on communities.
Carwyn told the Assembly that Home Office information referred people to bodies that don't even exist in Wales, saying we need to ensure those errors are resolved and that guidelines are relevant.
Janet Finch Saunders AM (Con, Aberconwy), Jenny Rathbone AM (Lab, Cardiff Central) and Gwenda Thomas AM (Lab, Neath) asked questions on UK Government funding, provision of health and education services for refugees and the role of the voluntary/third sector respectively.
Wrapping up this part of FMQs, the First Minister said the summit was, in itself, a response to WLGA concerns on funding. He added it was unclear if the £1billion earmarked by the UK Government would go towards keeping refugees in camps or resettling them in the UK. On third sector involvement, the First Minister told Gwenda that their contribution will be "vital" and he wants them to be part of the plan.
Things To Consider
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| If only all the world's problems could be solved with a placard, loudhailer and gentle strolls. (Pic : via BBC Wales) |
A movement of this many people requires careful logistical planning and a realistic assessment of what can be done, for whom and over what timescale. There are several issues I suspect will have been discussed at today's summit, and the Welsh Government and local authorities deserve praise for approaching it in a measured and methodical way.
There's going to be a natural limit to how many refugees Wales, and the wider UK, can welcome, but that depends entirely on what we would expect to offer them. We can either give them a no-frills experience to meet international obligations, or we can ensure they have a decent standard of living.
So the first priority will be to determine just how many refugees Wales can take in "comfortably" – by "comfortably" I mean the largest number of refugees that can be accommodated without seriously impacting their own standard of living. You can call this a "quota" if you want, and it's partially determined by the EU's Dublin Regulation - which seeks to disperse refugees based on the economic strength of member states.
The Wales Refugee Council put the figure at 1,600 – or 8% of the expected 20,000 refugees David Cameron said the UK will take in between now and 2020. This is larger than Wales' share of the UK population (4.9%), would be in addition to the ~2,300 asylum-seekers already living in Wales and ignores the fact Welsh economic production per head is 74% of the UK average.
So I don't know how the 8% figure was arrived at, and seems based on the fact Wales already accommodates a higher proportion of refugees than the UK average (which, logically, should mean Wales should accommodate fewer refugees fleeing Syria) - but these figures undersell the scale of the crisis.
Around 800,000 refugees (not just from Syria, it's worth pointing out) are expected to arrive in Germany this year alone. If the UK were to really pull its weight, you would need to add an extra zero to that 1,600 figure for Wales.
The vast majority of registered Syrian refugees are working age men and women who, in order to have the means to reach Europe illegally, are likely to have come from the middle classes. They could probably support themselves – especially if they're skilled - and might not need much government aid, but there's a nasty sting in the tail I'll come back to later.
That's why David Cameron was right, but for the wrong reasons, to suggest only welcoming refugees from official camps in countries bordering Syria. They're less likely to be economic migrants from other countries who have joined the mass movement incognito; they're less likely to have the means to support themselves (meaning they're perhaps more vulnerable than anyone who made the journey); they will have been processed by authorities beforehand to check their backgrounds.
The second priority is finding refugees somewhere to live.
If we go down the no frills route, they'll end up living in hastily-constructed temporary dwellings - hopefully much better than those provided in the Middle East. This will, naturally, be expensive and would probably lead to unrest if conditions deteriorate, but it would also mean we would be able to accommodate more refugees than we otherwise could.
If we shelter them in permanent accommodation – which is what I expect most people calling for a refugees' welcome would want - then the numbers we can accept will be limited due to a lack of suitable housing. If we welcome too many refugees, there's the prospect of multiple families living in HMOs and B&Bs, with living conditions likely to decline rapidly – but it's still better than living a nomadic life.
Many refugees end up in "hard to let" properties anyway, but with social housing waiting lists as long as they are, there's a risk of serious resentment building amongst low and single-income families if they "see" refugees "jumping the queue" (even if they don't).
Trying to accommodate a potentialy 50%+ increase in asylum-seekers, people unneccessarily resettling from England via social landlords, and dealing with the fallout from the bedroom tax could lead to a spike in homelessness, or a return of "slumlords" and other assorted neer-do-wells who would seek to exploit them all.
Thirdly, there's the issue of education, public services and jobs. Children arriving with their families will need to go to school and will need to integrate rapidly – many might not speak English, and many will have seen things that we will have only seen in our worst nightmares. Refugees with long-term conditions will need to be cared for and, presumably, all refugees will have to undergo medical screening.
Meanwhile, as we don't know how long any refugees would remain in Wales and the UK (it doesn't look likely there'll be peace in Syria any time soon), there's a danger that skilled refugees will have their talents wasted. Asylum-seekers aren't allowed to work while their claims are processed because they would be legally classed as economic migrants, not refugees, and that could mean many refugees will be living a hand-to-mouth existence for the best part of a year.
Naturally, local government and the Welsh NHS will need funding to cover this, probably running into tens of millions of pounds. As immigration is a non-devolved matter, the UK Government is the obvious bank roller, though the precise details are as yet unclear.
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