FMQs: RIFW Redux, Tuition Fees & Parking Fines

The final FMQs of the 2016-17 Assembly term took place this afternoon and it's also the final FMQs covered on this site.

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FMQs: Mind Your Language

The penultimate FMQs of the 2016-17 term, and although there's still a lot of heat being generated on the Circuit of Wales saga (yet again) it's not generating much light at the moment but that might soon be about to change.

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FMQs: Abortions, Smoking & Sport

Another summary of FMQs from the Senedd.

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FMQs: Circuit of Wales, Stressed Teachers & Gambling

Here are the highlights of this afternoon's First Minister's Questions which, as you might expect, was dominated by the Welsh Government's decision earlier today not to underwrite the Circuit of Wales project in Blaenau Gwent.

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FMQs: Gaffes, Circuit of Wales & Borrowing

This afternoon saw the final FMQs before the local elections on Thursday and the first since the announcement of the forthcoming UK general election.

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FMQs : Circuit of Wales, Water & Tolls

The big story this afternoon is the emergence of a potential "cash for access" scandal. I stress "potential".

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Fourth Assembly Review : Key Achievements

Although the National Assembly doesn't officially dissolve until April 6^th, as this week is the last sitting week the election campaign will soon ratchet up a gear or two.

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Making the Metro

(Pic : BBC Wales)

At the end of November the Welsh Government launched the first publicity campaign for the proposed South Wales Metro after the project was given a firm go ahead earlier in 2015 (Metro a Go Go).

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Assembly Calls for Steel Industry Support

(Pic : South Wales Argus)

The latest topical Members' Debate in the Senedd takes place amidst growing concerns about a slow down in the global steel market and the influx of cheap, low-grade steel from China.

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Returning Your Deposits

(Pic : buzzfeed.com)

Yesterday, the Conservatives held a debate on something that blights all communities, and likely to be a perennial issue on the doorstep : littering, fly-tipping, graffiti and dog shit.

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Road to Somewhere?

With the latest section of the A465 dualling project set to fully open soon,
it's worth reflecting on the short-term and long-term impact.
(Pic : a465brynmawr2tredegar.co.uk)

The latest section in the long-running project to dual the Heads of the Valleys road (A465) between Abergavenny and Hirwaun is due to fully open imminently (it's been partially open for a few weeks now). Section 3, which runs between Tredegar and Brynmawr, has cost £158million, with £80million of that coming from the EU.

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Metro a Go Go

The Welsh Government have announced a £600million second phase of the Cardiff capital region Metro,
as well as a new not-for-profit company to run the Wales & Borders rail franchise from 2018.
(Pic : Vale of Glamorgan Council)

As you probably already know, Business & Economy Minister, Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower) made a major announcement on the future of the South Wales Metro on Tuesday (30^th June).

The Minister told the National Assembly her department has made "significant progress" on the Metro and Wales & Borders franchise (Future of the Wales & Borders Rail Franchise). Phase 1 of the Metro is already being delivered via capacity enhancements to the Ebbw Vale line and the recent opening of Ebbw Vale Town station.

Highlights from the announcement (clip) include :

• The Metro will be a high quality integrated transport system (see also : Assembly Integrated Transport Inquiry), with rapid, frequent and reliable rail services linking in with the bus network.
• Passengers will be able to move seamlessly from one form of transport to another using integrated payment methods (i.e a Welsh Oyster Card).
• South Wales mainline electrification "must be delivered in line with previous announcements". A procurement process for Valley Lines electrification will start next year, with work possibly beginning in 2017-18.
• The Metro and Wales & Borders franchise will be run as a single contract and as a "not-for-dividend" company (Welsh Government Transport Company). The Welsh Transport Company has already been incorporated, and aims to emulate Transport for London. It will probably be run as a concession with a profit cap, meaning more money will be available to invest in services.
• The Welsh Government are "keeping an open mind" on the details of how the Metro would be delivered (i.e. tram-trains, heavy rail, trams), but there are "red lines" :
• no low-quality rolling stock
• capacity and reliability must improve
• efficiency must increase to allow more frequent services
• Local authorities will help shape the final version of the Metro through their Local Development Plans.
• Extra powers need to be devolved, particularly bus regulation.
• Phase 2 of the Metro will see investment of between £500-600 million by 2020. £125million has been secured from the UK Department of Transport, while £150million is being sought from the EU Regional Development Fund. "Good progress" has been made finding other capital funds. Local authorities will be able to draw some funding from developer (S106) contributions.

Shadow Economy Minister, William Graham (Con, South Wales East), greatly welcomed the announcement (clip), saying it would improve communication and social cohesion, providing a "catalyst for the capital region". He was particularly pleased about the rolling stock commitment, but wanted assurances it would be delivered on time and on budget, as well as details on the fare structure and the impact Metro would have on the M4 Newport bypass.

The Minister said rolling stock was a key issue raised by interested parties, describing current trains as "absolutely appalling". She said the not-for-dividend model could lead to changes in fare structures, though consultation on the final Metro routes would continue. Transport models showed the Metro wouldn't make much difference to M4 traffic and she would share this with the relevant Assembly committee.

Plaid Cymru's economy spokesperson, Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid, Ynys Môn), said the Metro investment and M4 projects shouldn't make other regions feel they're being left out (clip), asking for a final estimated capital cost. He also asked if the M4 black route was holding back investment in the Metro and wanted assurances the Valleys would benefit economically so the impact isn't concentrated in Cardiff.

The Minister told him it's an "aspirational project that needs to be delivered", but it was clear the industry were "up to the the challenge of an integrated franchise". She said 42 companies had expressed interest, and rolling stock companies were looking for manufacturing sites in Wales. She stressed that the Metro wasn't just for Cardiff but the wider capital region, but it was up to local authorities to look at possible new station sites. A forthcoming new All-Wales Transport Plan will make clear commitments outside SE Wales.

Mick Antoniw AM (Lab, Pontypridd) described the project as "inspirational and aspirational" as well as economically and socially transformational (clip). He asked specific questions on the Beddau rail link and massive housing proposals in the Taff-Ely area, also whether there had been further discussions with the European Investment Bank (EIB)?

It was confirmed that Finance Minister, Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan) was working with the EIB. The Minister said the map was a "first stab" and the final proposals will be worked upon, with more detail in the autumn. She stressed the importance of linking housing and industrial areas to public transport, going as far as suggesting planning permission should be refused where there isn't a proper transport assessment.

With much of the focus on rail, there were concerns buses were being
overlooked despite carrying more passengers than trains annually.
(Pic : Wales Online)

Lib Dem economy and transport spokesperson, Eluned Parrott AM (Lib Dem, South Wales Central), said there was much to agree with (clip), but several maps had emerged over the years without a "definitive" final map. Costs can't be properly evaluated without one, while passengers, investors and businesses want to know what the final Metro will look like. Eluned was concerned that rail was taking too much priority over buses and active travel. She asked if the Welsh Government Transport Company would have powers to borrow independent of government (like any other business), why there was an integrated contract (she believes the Metro and rail franchise should be kept separate) and what had changed to make smart ticketing possible now when it was supposed to be introduced by 2014?

The Minister said as there were too many technical questions – an example is given where the Caerphilly Tunnel might have to close for lengthy periods during electrification works – the Welsh Government had to go to the market to get opinions on what needs to be done first. The integrated franchise makes it more attractive to investors as it's a big contract and she wants to avoid having different contracts and arrangements which have "caused chaos" on the rail network elsewhere.

John Griffiths AM (Lab, Newport East) asked for an update on passenger services between Ebbw Vale and Newport (clip) as well as the format of park and ride facilities in Monmouthshire. He also stressed the importance of affordable fares as a priority for those with strained finances.

Edwina said the Welsh Government have "got to look at fares", and suggested that new park and rides could be multi-story car parks as opposed to smaller 30-40 space car parks. On Ebbw Vale-Newport services, timetable studies are underway and there would be an update in the autumn.

Leader of the Opposition, Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central), wanted guarantees that the project would be at an advanced stage by 2020 (clip).

Edwina said it would be the "start of a system", but won't be "all singing, all dancing" by 2020. She did, however, appreciate the cross-party support.

Julie Morgan AM (Lab, Cardiff North) asked if projected population growth in Cardiff had been taken into account (clip), whether there had been discussions with Cardiff Council on how the new bus station would fit in and how the public would be involved?

The Minister welcomed news on the bus station, saying population growth has to be taken into account. On bus services, she said Wales needs powers over bus regulation. Many of the rail groups she's worked with "had a better understanding of timetables than Arriva", adding there had been no final decision on the role of the Cardiff city region with regard the Metro.

Alun Davies AM (Lab, Blaenau Gwent) said that the Metro would "drive sustainable growth in the heads of the valleys region", but too many stops would make the service less valuable and it should be seen as an inter-urban service rather than a commuter service. (clip) He asked if there were timescales on Ebbw Vale frequency enhancement and extensions to Abertillery, and how Network Rail's route plans would be factored in? Edwina said there would be a further update on works in the autumn and the relationship with Network Rail will be discussed to make sure they're working to the same agenda.

Finally, Nick Ramsay AM (Con, Monmouth) said the latest map had connections to Ebbw Vale and Chepstow but not Monmouth itself (clip). The Minister said initial discussions on including Monmouth had taken place, and it's on the agenda for an upcoming meeting with the leader of Monmouthshire Council.

Call me Nostradumbass?
(Pic : Me, click to enlarge)

I wrote The Welsh Metro in March 2011, about a year before the original announcement of the project was made. It consistently remains one of my most popular blogs. My speculative "Capital Connect"  map (above) is even similar to the one produced for the Metro project a few years later - it's a case of the potential being obvious, I'm not suggesting I had any influence.

I'm delighted there's some real progress being made, but I'm going to be nothing more than cautiously optimistic until there are shovels in the ground. We've had a lot of talk, and a lot of involvement by consultants and committees so far, but little action.

The most positive announcements are confirmation that there would be a smart ticketing system, rolling stock will be upgraded (with hints they could be replaced by new build trains in the longer term) and that both the rail franchise and the Metro will be run as a not-for-profit – which means, potentially, a greater focus on service investment instead of profit-making.

Despite this, as Eluned Parrott pointed out we still don't have a final map of the project (in particular bus rapid transit routes) and we still don't know what the Metro would look like – Will there be trams? Will it be a heavy rail S-Bahn system (as it is currently)? How will buses and cycling be properly integrated? There's still quite a lot of work to do, so this isn't a "green light" but still a big step forward.

Also, "South Wales Metro" is a bit of a misnomer. It should probably be called Cardiff Capital Region Metro. That shouldn't take away anything from the announcement, but Wales is Wales and if someone can find something moan about they will moan about it.

There's scope for some sort of integrated transport system in NE Wales and Merseyside. Plus, with the bendy buses/FTR being withdrawn from Swansea, there's the potential to explore a tram system along the same route, perhaps utilising existing freight-only rail lines to include Port Talbot, Neath and the Neath Valley. That's one for the medium to long-term though.

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Fried Cymru : The Barby of Wales

The night is dark and full of terrors.
(Pic : ITV Wales)

For several weeks it seemed as though the south Wales valleys were permanently ablaze. It dominated headlines over Easter, but has since drifted from the front pages.The number of grass/forest fires in 2015 are reportedly up 195% on 2014. Trees were destroyed, wildlife killed and homes evacuated as there was very real possibility that the fires would endanger whole villages.

Yesterday, the Public Services Minister, Smokey Bear Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhonnda) issued a statement in the National Assembly updating AMs on current actions taken to prevent similar fires in the future, perhaps with the forthcoming school summer holidays in mind.

The Minister issued a written statement during the height of the crisis on April 21st (clip). Subsequently, as a result of these "criminal acts of a small number of individuals", more people have been detained during this latest round of fires that were detained in the previous five years. He condemned those who started the fires, and praised the emergency services and tough stance of the police.

There were 933 fires in south Wales alone, and it's believed 902 (97%) were started deliberately. All fires were extinguished without having to call in extra support from neighbouring authorities, but resources used to tackle them could've been more productively spent elsewhere. A summit was held on April 29^th with the First Minister, Natural Resources Minister and Education Minister in attendance. They agreed co-ordinated actions in the short, medium and long-term based around education, land management and deterrence.

The fire service already has a strong record on education, visiting every secondary school in affected areas, while the Phoenix Project has a re-offending rate of under 5%. The fire service are now considering using drones to spot fires and identify those who start them. Alongside this there are social media campaigns and extra-curricular activities to divert children from deliberate fire setting.

Natural Resources Wales are considering changes to land management structures to control the spread of fires, such as using fire breaks. Welsh Government will co-ordinate efforts through the Wales Resilience Forum and programmes like Glastir (The Green, Green Glas of Home).

Due to public and community concerns, there's a willingness to help reduce fires and identify arsonists. The Chief Fire Officer in south Wales has visited community groups, and a smart phone app has been developed to report fires. The Minister said that the threat hasn't gone away, so there's no room for complacency.

William Graham AM (Con, South Wales East) appreciated the actions of the Minister and paid tribute to the fire service and emergency call handlers (clip). He asked if the Minister agreed that sentencing guidelines needed to be changed to increase the punishments for these crimes?

The Minister said these fires are becoming "an annual event" and need to be properly addressed through the resilience forum. Over time, the number of grass fires has fallen, but emergency services have to plan for these events and set budgets accordingly. He described changes to sentencing guidelines as an "interesting idea" but preferred to wait upon the outcome of current prosecutions (plus it's non-devolved).

Rhodri Glyn Thomas AM (Plaid, Carms. E & Dinefwr) asked for an expansion on the issues raised at the summit (clip). He also said pressure on emergency services was "huge", and that the response of call centres was "extremely efficient". Rhodri raised concerns about absence levels in the fire service, and whether it was linked to these fires, plus changes in the workforce from full-time officers to, part-time officers. He asked if they would be able to maintain these levels of work?

Leighton said collaboration has increased since the summit on prevention and detection. The balance between full and part-time firefighters was a matter for fire authorities, while fire services had coped with reduced budgets and "made efficiencies". He was satisfied current governance arrangements work, and wouldn't like to see PCC-style elected fire commissioners (unlike policing, fire & rescue services were devolved in 2004).

Jenny Rathbone AM (Lab, Cardiff Central) said the issue needed to be looked at from the other end (clip), calling for third sector bodies like the RSPB and Scouts to stress the importance of natural environments to the whole community, so children are much more minded "to be protectors of nature".

The Minister said the Foundation Phase has commitments to the outdoors and the environment, and there were already a number of voluntary bodies engaging with children. He did, however, stress that not all of the fires were started by children, with two arrests being men in their 30s and 50s. He wouldn't confirm if they were called Ramsay and Stannis respectively.

Eluned Parrott AM (Lib Dem, South Wales Central) condemned the arsonists as "reckless individuals" who not only endanger life through fires but divert resources from other emergencies (clip). She asked several questions, particularly on research into the profile of, and reasons why, people start fires. Eluned also stressed the importance of after-school and holiday activities, as well as schemes like Project Bernie (which appears to be based on DJ Dai from Grand Theft Auto II ).

The Minister said significant research had been done on the motivations of arsonists, and South Wales Police have commissioned further research from Cardiff University on motivations and the effectiveness of social media campaigns. A wide range of school clubs and other activities exist, and he acknowledged that Project Bernie has made a significant impact.

Christine Chapman AM's (Lab, Cynon Valley) constituency was disproportionately affected by the fires (clip). She asked what work has been done with offenders to understand drivers to authorities know what works and what doesn't? She noted the association between deprivation and the fires and whether these communities – in particular boys and men – should be targeted. Finally, she asked about how easy fires were to predict and whether a warning system has been developed?

Leighton said we need to focus on research which has already been done, but admitted it's "not comprehensive". He added it was right to say fires can be predicted and the emergency services' plans have them in mind, but the timing of education programmes/interventions might need to be adjusted accordingly.

Mark Isherwood AM (Con, North Wales) said there were 145 similar fires in north Wales (clip), and the fire services instituted an effective "do you know where your kids are?" campaign. He asked whether community groups were involved in the summit and whether the responsibilities of landowners have been taken into account?

The Minister said social media had been used to engage with parents very effectively. There were too many community groups to take part in the summit, but many were engaged through the fire service. Also, he repeated what he said about land management, adding that fire authorities discuss issues with landowners.

Who can prevent forest fires?

You said "you", by which you were referring to me. That is incorrect. The correct answer is "you".

There have been calls down the years to re-forest/re-wild upland Wales – notably from George Monbiot – in order to increase flood protection in lowland areas. In areas of agricultural use that's perhaps impractical, but elsewhere I would love to see the valleys "re-greened" with native forestry to the same extent as Switzerland. This is one of the reasons why it can't/won't happen.

These fires have always been a background threat but, like flooding, it's time to take it a bit more seriously. Judging by what's been said, to their credit that's precisely what the Welsh Government and emergency services are doing.

Boredom might be a reason – and sensationalist coverage via the likes of Wales Online won't have helped - but none of that is an excuse and I hope those responsible, regardless of age, have the book thrown at them. Due to the topography of the valleys, it's inevitable that one day these fires will threaten entire villages and people will at least lose their homes, if not be killed, as a result.

Christine Chapman raised an important point about warnings. If you're close to a fire it's pretty obvious, but when there's a heightened risk of one starting, it's worth warning people so they can keep an eye out – particularly parents knowing where their children are going.

We've had a noticeably dry year so far. Maybe that was a factor in how the fires were able to spread so quickly. We might also have to accept that these things are increasingly going to start naturally, and so the fire service need the resources to deal with them.

Speaking of resources, for all the talk about defence spending and military recruitment recently, the UK can't properly defend itself from natural disasters (even if there's a criminal element with these fires).

Wales nominally contributes about £1.6billion towards the UK's military budget yet we seem to get very little back in terms of....actual defence from real threats. Perhaps all those kids recruited into the three services from Welsh schools in deprived areas should be sent in to help protect their hometowns during situations like these.

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Back to the Future

"If my calculations are correct, when this baby hits 8 counties you're going to see some serious shit."

Today's post was originally going to be on the annual Programme of Government report, but due to a "dramatic" turn of events on local government reform I'll have to post it another time. There's a lot to get through.

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Devolution at 15 : A Political Journey

(Owen : This series was originally going to be posted w/c May 12^th 2014)

May 12^th 2014 marked the fifteenth anniversary of the first meeting of the National Assembly.

It's an arbitrary anniversary that's not particularly significant, but five year increments are a good place to take stock. Because this blog's unlikely to be around for the twentieth anniversary, and to coincide with passing the 500^th blog mark, I'll take a look at how devolution has shaped Wales politically, its successes and failures, and what the next 15 years might hold.

First Assembly (1999-2003) – "No Confidence"

From the ashes of the increasingly discredited Quango State, a new talking
shop rose....and almost collapsed under the weight of its own hubris.
(Pic : Wales Online)

• Resignation of Alun Michael as First Secretary, Rhodri Morgan becomes first "First Minister"
• Resignation of Dafydd Wigley as Plaid Cymru leader
• 2001 foot & mouth disease epidemic
• Closure of Ebbw Vale steelworks and mothballing of LG Newport

Approved by the slimmest margin in September 1997, the National Assembly for Wales sat for the first time on May 12^th 1999 in a nondescript office building called Crickhowell House, which was previously part-housed by a health Quango and later rechristened the more Cymristically-correct Tŷ Hywel.

The byword for this first term was "chaos", which reflected its troubled birth. Before it even came into being, Ron Davies suddenly resigned as Welsh Secretary, ending his chances of leading Labour into this new era despite being the "Architect of Welsh devolution".

Plaid Cymru then achieved their best ever Assembly election result (~30% of the vote) – taking Valleys seats like Rhondda, Islwyn and pushing close in Cynon Valley and Pontypridd. This left Labour – as largest party - with no option but to form an unstable minority government. Turnout was low, but compared to subsequent years 46% looks fantastic.

The First Assembly was dominated by no-confidence motions,
internal party squabbles and concerns over a lack of
credibility due to Westminster interference.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

The First Assembly was effectively identical to what Wales would've got had the country voted yes in 1979. Lacking the powers of its Scottish and Northern Irish equivalents, the Assembly was derided as an ineffectual talking shop – a label it still struggles to shake off.

"Double jobbing" (being an MP and AM at the same time) was fairly commonplace. Though it allowed many "giants of Welsh politics" to ply a trade closer to home, it also gave the impression that Whitehall was heavily influencing the Assembly, with Alun Michael seen as London's preferred candidate for First Secretary.


Other AMs were new faces, many being former local councillors or failed Westminster and European candidates who perhaps brought a parochial, Gordon Brittas-style local authority mindset with them.

After a tumultuous eight months as First Secretary, Alun Michael was ditched in 2000 for party membership favourite Rhodri Morgan following an Objective One match funding row – avoiding the indignity of a(nother) no confidence vote (no confidence votes, or the threat of such, becoming something of a trademark during these first four years).

Rhodri Morgan led Labour into a long-forgotten coalition with the Liberal Democrats, which provided stability but failed to benefit the junior partners. Sound familiar? Lasting policies born from this first coalition include free entry to museums, Communities First (what I once described as "a little government's big idea"), the Children's Commissioner and Finance Wales.

With Alun Michael gone - partly because of their calls for a no confidence vote - you would've expected Plaid Cymru to be riding high. The sudden resignation as party leader in 2000 of one of the towering figures of Welsh nationalism, Dafydd Wigley, was for health and family reasons; but with Plaid Cymru often victim to internecine feuds, rumours of conspiracies were never far away.

Although Dafydd Wigley remains a senior nationalist figure, did
his exit mean Wales lost "Our Alex Salmond" from the Assembly?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Despite 1999's success, it was clear many in Plaid preferred to form a broad progressive coalition with Labour in order to drive a wedge between Cardiff and London (tantalising glimpses of which were given during the Morgan-Michael tussle). They were worried the party, under Wigley's leadership, was too risk-averse. This paved the way for inconspicuous country lawyer, Ieuan Wyn Jones, to take the helm.

After Plaid were left marginalised as "extremists" following a campaign against Anglophone in-migration in 2001 by Cymuned, everything Plaid gained in 1999 was eventually lost, making you wonder if a bigger personality would've handled it better.

Dafydd Wigley's exit from the front line of Welsh politics (and failure to secure an Assembly return) is perhaps the biggest blunder Plaid have ever made; and although they'll probably claim otherwise, it's something Plaid are yet to recover from, even if Dafydd has since taken to wearing ermine.

2001 is best remembered for the September 11^th attacks, which resulted in the biggest shift in global politics since the end of the Cold War.

Earlier that year a very Welsh disaster unfolded. With agriculture a devolved responsibility, the foot and mouth disease epidemic was perhaps the first time, in a crisis, that Welsh people looked to the Assembly for leadership instead of local councils or Westminster.

The boundaries of devolved powers caused difficulties, and there were clear mistakes - such as the unpopular decision to burn carcasses on the Epynt range, and the decision to close large chunks of the countryside. But while the (then titled) Welsh Assembly Government's response was mildly praised, a lot of the flak was aimed at UK's DEFRA.

Did the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic force
the Welsh Assembly to "grow up"?
(Pic : vetsonline.com)

The shift towards the Assembly and Welsh Government being the face of crisis management would later return in the form of the Pennington Inquiry into the 2005 e-coli outbreak, measles epidemics and handling natural disasters - especially flooding.

The First Assembly also coincided with the country facing up to the realities of globalisation. Due to liberalisation in former Communist countries, aspirations of EU expansion, and the shift in economic power from west to east, the Welsh selling-point of being a low-cost base for branch manufacturing was undermined.

The behemoth that was the Welsh Development Agency (WDA) looked outdated and outgunned, being hit by scandals and held up as an example of a patronage-based "Quango State".

Following a merger between privatised British Steel and Netherlands-based Hoogvens to form Corus, the Ebbw Vale steelworks closed in 2002 with the loss of 800 jobs. The works left a massive hole in the centre of Blaenau Gwent, contributing to the post-industrial downward economic spiral that the Heads of the Valleys region still hasn't recovered from – echoing a similar picture in Deeside caused by the closure of Shotton steelworks in 1980.

The rise of the National Assembly - and the far east - coincided with
the slow but inevitable death of the Welsh Development Agency.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

The decline of the Welsh steel industry during the 1990s and 2000s was as economically damaging as the decline of coal, masked by growth in the service, university and public sectors.

The subsequent regeneration of the former steelworks over the last 5 years underlines what replaced heavy industry since devolution : a community hospital, houses, a further education college and leisure facilities; services without any real economic substance.

Despite devolution, the Welsh Assembly didn't have much in their armoury to turn back the tide, with many of the flagship economic regeneration projects - like Techniums - flopping hard.

After being announced to great fanfare (and £150million+ in public subsidy), promising more than 6,000 jobs (delivered 1,200), the mothballing of the LG Newport factory (closed 2006) – along with the failure of Project Red Dragon at MOD St Athan - hammered more nails in the coffin of the WDA, indicating the end to nearly 30 years of continuous high levels of "big bang" direct investment in Wales.

Second Assembly (2003-2007) – "King Rhodri's Court"

The foundations laid, it was time to get down to
the real work after an ignoble first four years.
(Pic : National Assembly of Wales)

• The introduction of free prescriptions
• The "Bonfire of the Quangos" : Disestablishment of Welsh Development Agency, Wales Tourist Board, ELWA etc.
• Opening of the Senedd building
• Government of Wales Act 2006 establishes limited legislative powers for National Assembly following the Richard Commission
• Resignation of Peter Law from Welsh Labour, and election of Trish Law following his death.

Welsh Labour's 2003 election manifesto was a masterstroke. Its 10 simple manifesto commitments (pdf) delivered what Rhodri Morgan himself called "clear red water" between Welsh and London Labour.

The scrapping of prescription charges remains - to this day - one
of the more memorable devolved policies of the last 15 years.
(Pic : via Wikipedia)

Labour in England experimented with policies like foundation hospitals, top-up tuition fees and city academies in order to promote choice and competition. Welsh Labour committed to "freebie" universal benefits and collaboration between service providers.


In 2003 this included free swimming and bus travel for the over-60s, free school breakfasts and perhaps most importantly of all, the scrapping of NHS prescription charges.



The proposals were clearly different from other parts of the UK, relatively inexpensive (large numbers of Welsh residents didn't pay prescription charges anyway) and headline-grabbing.

Although Labour failed to secure an Assembly majority, the 2003 manifesto played a part in handing them one of their best results despite an atrociously-low turnout of 38%.

The other key policy development during the Second Assembly was what would become known as "The Bonfire of the Quangos". Quangos had an increasingly poor reputation in Wales. Most were established by previous Conservative Welsh secretaries, and seen as unelected and unaccountable.

The "WAG" - as it became known colloquially - decided to take the functions of these arms-length bodies in-house, in a clear difference of opinion between Wales and the rest of Great Britain over what "the state" should do – intervention and collaboration in Wales, innovation and targets in England, a mix in Scotland.

By taking more powers "in house", the Welsh
Assembly Government centralised executive control.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Ministers and civil servants in Cathays Park would have more direct control over key areas of public service delivery, all democratically accountable to the Assembly.

However, it also meant centralisation of executive power, the loss of private sector expertise and an increasingly state-centric approach to public policy. Since then, the vacuum left by the exit of private sector patronage has been filled by an explosion in (partly state-funded) voluntary sector patronage, collectively known as the "Third Sector".

2006 was a particularly historic year for Welsh devolution for three reasons.

The first was that the Richard Rodgers Senedd building was completed, officially opened by the UK's most senior civil servant, Bet Windsor, on St David's Day 2006. Although it didn't suffer as extreme problems as its Scottish equivalent, it was six times over-budget (at £67million) and was delayed four years. It's since become an iconic addition to Cardiff Bay waterfront, providing a state-of-the-art, environmentally-sound building fit for any 21^st Century legislature. Very ironic considering Cardiff voted "no" in 1997.

And a legislature it would become. The second historic event of 2006 was the passing of the second Government of Wales Act. Until this moment, the National Assembly only had powers to pass regulations. Wales could still make significant changes – like the aforementioned scrapping of prescription charges – but couldn't alter the underlying legal foundations.

Wales was to have a full legislature, but....
(Pic : Liverpool University)

The Act – the result of a fudging of the 2004 Richard Commission report - meant that after the election of the Third Assembly, Wales would have the power to pass its own laws (Measures) in devolved areas....with permission from Westminster, known as the Legislative Competence Order (LCO) system.


LCOs were a compromise between devosceptic MPs and devolutionist AMs - keeping a London leash on the Assembly, but granting extra powers and freedoms to Cardiff.




In order to dangle a carrot in front of nationalists and devolutionists to keep them sweet, the Act also included a trigger for a referendum to give Wales full law-making powers in 20 devolved areas (removing the LCO system); though then Welsh Secretary, Peter Hain, saw the Act settling the constitutional argument for a generation.

The third way 2006 was historic was that Wales fell out with Labour, with Labour's traditional supporter base feeling marginalised from an out of touch central office in London.

John Marek was the first Assembly Labour rebel, having been elected as Deputy Llywydd against Labour's wishes, subsequently winning Wrexham as an Independent. The second rebel was a former Michael administration minister, Peter Law. He resigned from Labour in 2005 due to a party policy of women-only shortlists during that year's UK elections. Peter Law subsequently won the Blaenau Gwent Westminster seat as an Independent with a majority of over 9,000.

Welsh Labour's fortunes faded towards the end of the Second Assembly,
having been humbled by a care assistant from Blaenau Gwent.
(Pic : Press Association via BBC Wales)

After battling against brain cancer, Peter died on 26^th April 2006, prompting a double by-election in Blaenau Gwent. Independent Dai Davies unexpectedly took the Westminster seat, while Peter's widow, Trish Law – a care assistant, and to date the only working-class (by profession) AM in its history – became an AM with a majority of more than 4,000.

This was important for another reason. The National Assembly (somewhat ironically given the circumstances) became the first legislature in the world where the majority of representatives were women.

It's also the only period in the Assembly's history where there was more than one AM from outside the "Big Four" parties, with UKIP looking set to change that in 2016.

Third Assembly (2007-2011) – "Coming of Age (& Austerity)"

When America sneezes....
(Pic : The Guardian)

• One Wales coalition between Labour and Plaid Cymru
• NHS Redress Measure 2008 becomes first Welsh law passed since the reign of Hywel Dda
• The 2007-2008 Financial Crisis, subsequent recession and Economic Renewal Plan
• Carwyn Jones appointed First Minister
• Yes vote in 2011 legislative powers referendum

The May 2007 elections were the last to be overseen by Tony Blair. As he was no longer an electoral force but an electoral liability (due partly to the unpopular war in Iraq), Labour endured a poor set of results across the UK, with Scotland electing a minority nationalist administration. Blair announced his resignation arrangements shortly afterwards, and Gordon Brown acceded to the position he always coveted a month later.

Plaid Cymru finally got what they wanted - a shot at government. While
Labour had to face up to serious problems, which were about to get worse.
As you can see, everyone was delighted.
(Pic : Press Associatiob via BBC Wales)

Wales' lover's tiff with Labour continued, delivering "a kicking" and - to date – the party's poorest result in an Assembly election.

Although Labour remained the largest party with 26 seats, it's too small to run a minority administration, but too big for other parties to ignore. Someone would have to go into coalition with someone else.




The period 2006-2010 was the Welsh political blogosphere's zenith, with coalition gossip and rumours played out to an increasingly influential internet audience. The initial talk was of a tripartite Plaid Cymru-led "Rainbow Coalition", set out in the All-Wales Accord agreement - but the Lib Dems infamously got cold feet in Builth Wells.

Labour briefly established a minority administration, but after further negotiations in June/July 2007 – interrupted by a Rhodri Morgan heart scare – Labour conceded to trigger a referendum on full law-making powers within the term, sealing agreement with Plaid Cymru to form the "One Wales" government.

Small, but significant.
(Pic : via Wikipedia)

With new legislative powers in effect, the first Welsh law in 500 years - regulating low-value compensation payments which result from medical negligence - was passed in a low-key affair late afternoon on May 6th 2008. Not exciting, but historic none the less.

Other key Measures passed during the Third Assembly included : caps on social care charges, granting the Welsh language official status, enshrining children's rights in law, the introduction of a charge for single-use carrier bags (partly result of a public petition) and setting minimum safety standards for school transport.

After a decade of property-fuelled consumer debt, the first inkling of serious problems in the UK economy came when Newcastle-based Northern Rock were unable to repay their own loans, prompting a bank run and eventual nationalisation by the UK Government.

Over a period of months, the situation developed into the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression. Housing bubbles burst across The West due to a consumer credit crisis, Lehmann Brothers went bust, household names like Woolworths disappeared, while London's financial service sector was said to be a hours away from total collapse and the UK close to martial law.

Despite having a small financial sector, Wales wasn't insulated from the crisis in big capital. Companies across all sectors that were reliant on credit – including Wales's proportionally larger manufacturing base - suddenly found banks unwilling to lend. Youth unemployment also skyrocketed, and during the height of the recession it was claimed half of the unemployed were aged under-25.

Traditionally, Wales' larger public sector would've shielded against rises in private sector unemployment. However, with households experiencing belt tightening, voters and populist sections of the media expected government to do the same.

During the tail end of the Brown administration, and with the incoming Conservative-Lib Dem coalition hellbent on austerity, the National Assembly had to manage challenging cuts to its budget for the first time. The impact on capital spending was evident on its own, falling by 40%.

The 2010 Economic Renewal Plan marked a shift from seeking
investment from foreign companies to growing Welsh businesses.
(Pic : Click on Wales)

With economic development a devolved responsibility, it was left to then Economy & Transport Minister, Ieuan Wyn Jones, to formulate the Welsh Assembly Government's policy response.

The Economic Renewal Plan made bold changes to economic management. It intended to replace WDA-style grants with repayable loans, and established controversial key growth economic sectors, each overseen by a panel made up of government, academic and industry experts. The shift went from attracting foreign businesses to Wales, to growing Welsh-based businesses.

In addition, ProAct and ReAct were established to keep people who would otherwise have been laid off in work or training. The result was that while the Welsh economy still lagged behind the rest of the UK, unemployment never reached the cripplingly-high levels it had in previous recessions or the 1980s. This policy of state job support in the private sector remains (Jobs Growth Wales), albeit now focused on apprenticeships and job placements for the under-25s.

After just under ten years in office - arguably becoming the first recognisable "post-devolution personality" - Rhodri Morgan announced he would stand down as First Minister after the 2009-10 budget. The Labour leadership election was contested by three "post-devolution politicians", for whom all experience as professional elected representatives had built up post-1999 : Carwyn Jones, Huw Lewis and Edwina Hart.

Rhodri Morgan oversaw a smooth transition of power to Carwyn
Jones - but the prospect of a tricky referendum on full law-making
powers was an elephant in the room.
(Pic : Press Association via BBC Wales)

Bridgend AM and former barrister, Carwyn Jones,  was long considered the favourite and took the election in the first round with 52% of the vote.

Despite being seen as having a broad appeal and of being a safe pair of hands (like his predecessor), he was criticised for being too laid-back, too bland and even of being a closet nationalist.

After promoting a new generation of ministers to his cabinet, he renewed Labour's commitment to the One Wales agreement, which meant in the next two years he would have to secure a referendum on full law-making powers.

Although many Assembly Measures had passed with few problems, the inadequacies of the LCO system were best highlighted by stalled attempts to pass a law governing cycling in Wales (eventually becoming the Active Travel Act 2013). The short "permission slip" required to draft a law was consistently held up at Westminster, resulting in a grinding delay that lasted several years.

The referendum was triggered in February 2010, and support for full law-making powers had steadily increased since 2007 - all polling in the run up to the vote on 3^rd March 2011 showing a clear "yes" majority. This didn't stop the Welsh political establishment – after a shambolic start - running a full campaign, perhaps being acutely aware that poor knowledge of the Assembly's work and highly technical nature of the question being asked could cause problems.

It was, in almost all aspects, a one-sided contest. This was aided by no campaign organisation - True Wales – opting against official campaign status, perhaps attempting to drive down turnout and media coverage.

The no campaign failed to offer an adequate alternative to, or defence of, the LCO system. It was also made up of the sizable minority of people in Wales frustrated with devolution itself rather than being overly-concerned with the minutiae of law-making, which meant many couldn't campaign for what they really wanted : a re-run of the 1997 referendum and abolition of the Assembly.

After a slow start, the "yes" campaign managed a
comfortable victory. What were they so worried about?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

As expected, the yes campaign swept home. In hindsight, both the turnout (~36%) and strength of the yes vote (63.4%) were bigger achievements than they seemed at the time.

The tight yes victory in 1997and negative portrayal of devolved politics created doubts in people's minds – including the Welsh political class – as to whether devolution was a settled will of the electorate. So the result also ended uncertainty about the National Assembly's place in Welsh politics. It was here to stay.

Bills and Acts were finally coming to Wales. The Bay Bubble were clearly excited; the First Minister telling those assembled at the Senedd on March 4th 2011 that, "An old nation had come of age".

Most people shrugged.

Fourth Assembly (2011-present) – "Parliament-lite"

A more powerful Assembly, but suffering the same old problems....
(Pic : Welsh Government via BBC Wales)

• Welsh Labour matches best Assembly election result; Welsh Tories lose Nick Bourne; Leanne Wood elected Plaid Cymru leader
• Silk & Williams Commissions : Framework for future devolved powers, including fiscal powers for the first time; (controversial) local government reform
• Passing of Human Transplantation Act 2013
• Call-in of three Welsh laws to the UK Supreme Court
• UKIP surge in 2014 European Elections

Following the referendum, Wales was electing a parliament in all but name in May 2011.

The 2011 Assembly election was the first where Labour wasn't in power in London. This allowed Welsh Labour to frame a narrative of "sending a message to Westminster" and "standing up for Wales" in the face of swingeing cuts - which disproportionately impacted Wales due to a greater reliance on public services for employment and well-being. It was a Welsh election being fought as a Westminster midterm.

It might – at some point in the future – come back to haunt them, but it worked. Those who abandoned Labour in 2007-2009 came back in droves, giving the party a plurality of seats so they could govern alone. The rebound was cemented further when Labour retook most south Wales councils in the 2012 local elections.

As an AM, the cerebral Nick Bourne commanded respect across the
Assembly chamber, but despite his best efforts, the Conservative brand
has since partially slipped back into its old toxicity.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Large chunks of the Welsh electorate sent a very different message to Westminster : "Keep doing what you're doing". The Welsh Conservatives became the second largest party, while the Welsh Lib Dems – fearing wipeout – lost only a single seat.

In 2007, the Conservatives scored near enough the same percentage of the popular vote as Plaid Cymru, but this didn't translate into extra seats due to where those votes were won and the limited number of regional seats.


Despite producing an ambitious manifesto (pdf) and a good performance (14 seats), electoral mathematics would haunt the Welsh Tories again. Due to constituency successes they lost leader Nick Bourne on the Mid & West Wales regional list.

Nick Bourne – the longest serving party leader in post-devolution Wales - managed to partially detoxify the Tory brand by successfully adopting duel-identity patriotism and healing the post-97 split within party ranks over devolution itself.

He was replaced by the more brusque, traditional Welsh Tory Andrew RT Davies. He's arguably failed to continue Nick's narrative, partly due to the increasing unpopularity of the Westminster government, and partly because of internal squabbling between Cardiff and London over who speaks for the Welsh Tory membership, as well as renewed splits of devolved powers and Europe. However, the Conservatives have clearly picked out Labour's perceived mismanagement of the Welsh NHS as a weak spot that could reap them rewards.

Ieuan Wyn Jones turned out to be, in many respects, the most successful leader in Plaid Cymru's history. However, Plaid's long-held ambition of being seen as a party of government failed to materialise. Far from being rewarded for a mostly credible spell in office, the May 2011 losses were a slap in the face to both Plaid generally and IWJ personally.

It was clear there was a need for change, manifesting itself as the party's Moving Forward review and a leadership election. Four candidates stepped forward – including former leader and Llywydd, Dafydd Elis-Thomas, and early favourite and former Rural Affairs Minister, Elin Jones – one of Plaid's most effective cabinet ministers during One Wales.

The election of Leanne Wood as Plaid Cymru leader was a sign
Welsh nationalism was stepping out of its comfort zone
- but is it enough to ensure electoral success?
(Pic : Wales Online)

Plaid's membership took an uncharacteristically bold step in electing Leanne Wood leader - a non Welsh-speaker based outside Y Fro Gymraeg. Someone so heavily associated with Plaid's socialist republican "hard left" was unlikely to have been many people's idea of leadership material.

Although there've been bumps along the way, Leanne Wood has overseen an activist-focused revamp of Plaid's campaigning methods and a professionalisation of policy-making and backroom support.



Significant challenges remain for Plaid and Welsh nationalists though. They look on enviously at the SNP's success in Scotland which has put them on the brink of achieving independence – a success which seems nigh on impossible to recreate in Wales at present, partly due to Plaid Cymru itself.

If there's one thing everyone should've learned since 1999, it's that the Welsh political establishment love nothing more than setting up committees, task forces and commissions. The Westminster coalition's review of devolved powers accompanied the (retitled) Welsh Government's own attempt to get to grips with two of the biggest challenges in Wales – sluggish public service delivery and local government reform.

The result was two commissions, chaired by the two Pauls – Silk & Williams.

The Silk Commission was split into two halves. Silk I proposed limited fiscal devolution and borrowing powers – including the prospect of powers to vary income tax rates....subject to another highly-technical referendum. Silk II set out further devolved powers; including policing, teachers' pay and a boost to energy & water powers (a sore spot in Wales since Tryweryn).

A new role for (Lord) Nick Bourne, and a new set of powers
due to come to Wales.... partially subject to a referendum.
(Pic : Click on Wales)

The Williams Commission outlined changes not only how public services are managed, but a significant reduction in the number of local authorities from the current 22 to 10-12.

The final terms are to be decided, with deadlines missed and tempers frayed in county halls across Wales, all of which are dealing with the toughest financial settlemens since devolution.



In the background, there was ongoing discussion about the future of the Assembly itself, with talk of an increase in the number of AMs from 60 to 80, changes to the electoral system and a possible name change to "Welsh Parliament" - pretty much everything that could've been done 10 years ago had the Richard Commission been implemented in full.There's irony in that everything True Wales "warned" people about in 2011 - that a yes vote would lead to more AMs and devolution of tax-varying powers - would turn out to be right, but for the wrong reasons.

A ban on AMs standing in constituency and on regional lists at the same time within the Government of Wales Act 2006 - which has cost opposition parties dearly in terms of political talent in the past - is also set to be lifted....it's just come a bit too late for Nick Bourne.

Many laws under the new legislative powers have been important but uninspiring – reforming bylaws, significantly reforming social services, a law on cycle lanes (at last). However, a long wished for proposal to introduce an "opt-out" system for organ donation managed the rare feat of sending Welsh politics to the top of the UK news agenda. As a controversial headline-grabbing law, the Human Transplantation Act 2013 indicated just how different policy in Wales could be under devolution and its expanded legislative powers.

Three Welsh laws have become entangled in the web of the 2006
Act, meaning arguments whether Wales has devolved powers
over this and that haven't been put to rest.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Despite being granted primary law-making powers, there were still shades of grey. Most of this resulted from the mechanics of precisely how powers are devolved to Wales within the Government of Wales Act 2006.

These grey areas have led to not one, not two, but three Welsh laws being referred to the Supreme Court, after concerns from the UK Government and Welsh Counsel General that they were beyond the scope of the National Assembly's powers – which are devolved on a line-by-line basis.


Although the Welsh Government successfully won a case where the Local Government Bylaws Act 2012 removed powers from UK Secretaries of State, the subsequent calling-in of the emergency Agricultural Sector Bill (another case the Welsh Government won) and member-sponsored Asbestos Disease Bill has led to increasing calls for a reserved powers model in line with Scotland and Northern Ireland – subsequently recommended as part of Silk II.

In May 2014 an earthquake hit Wales, though only 32% of the population noticed. Despite the seat situation remaining status quo ante bellum following the European Parliament elections, UKIP's surge in Wales took the other three parties contesting a seat by surprise, in particular Labour.

The reasons why are unclear, but likely to to come down to : a rise in anti-politics feeling amongst older voters; the fallout from the immensely damaging 2009 Westminster expenses scandal which shook faith in institutional politics; a rising anti-immigration sentiment since EU enlargement in 2004; and the media appeal of Nigel Farage. It also indicated Wales isn't as detached from the rise in euroscepticism in England as many would like to think (after decades of continuous high-profile EU structural funds)– despite polls showing support in Wales for remaining in the EU.

Major scandals shaking faith in institutional politics could've
contributed to the rise of populist hard-right parties across Europe.
(Pic : The Guardian)

Although transgressions are often minor in Wales compared to Westminster counterparts, poor handling of one of the more serious political scandals in post-devolution Wales - which eventually led to the Natural Resources & Food Minister being sacked for trying to obtain private information about five opposition AMs - has led some to suggest that "sleaze" could be labelled to what increasingly looks like a tired Welsh Labour machine.

This is all in the backdrop of long-standing concerns over mismanagement of the health service, sluggish education standards, and concerns that the Welsh executive is too powerful (perhaps an unintended side effect of the Second Assembly's "Bonfire"), believing they're beyond scrutiny - especially from what remains of the Welsh press.

This was exemplified further by the sudden decision to give a go-ahead to a controversial £1billion bypass of Newport in July 2014, which could amount to being the largest single capital investment in Welsh history through the use of borrowing powers due to be devolved as part of the Wales Bill. The Assembly barely had any time to scrutinise the process properly.

With under two years until Wales elects the Fifth Assembly, the only other significant development that could be considered historic is the proposed Well-being of Future Generations Bill. It's an odd law that would lock down "sustainability" (post-devolution Wales' favourite buzzword) on the statute books to address generational challenges and guide the long-term development of Wales.

Over the last two terms the National Assembly has matured considerably. What remains is the perennial matter as to whether the Welsh electorate is as mature, or as interested/engaged with it, as AMs would like us to be. The public aren't as divided about its existence as they once were, but it has hardly been taken to people's hearts either.

Part II will look at the failures during the first 15 years of devolution. Brace yourselves....

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