Fried Cymru : The Barby of Wales

The night is dark and full of terrors.
(Pic : ITV Wales)

For several weeks it seemed as though the south Wales valleys were permanently ablaze. It dominated headlines over Easter, but has since drifted from the front pages.The number of grass/forest fires in 2015 are reportedly up 195% on 2014. Trees were destroyed, wildlife killed and homes evacuated as there was very real possibility that the fires would endanger whole villages.

Yesterday, the Public Services Minister, Smokey Bear Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhonnda) issued a statement in the National Assembly updating AMs on current actions taken to prevent similar fires in the future, perhaps with the forthcoming school summer holidays in mind.

The Minister issued a written statement during the height of the crisis on April 21st (clip). Subsequently, as a result of these "criminal acts of a small number of individuals", more people have been detained during this latest round of fires that were detained in the previous five years. He condemned those who started the fires, and praised the emergency services and tough stance of the police.

There were 933 fires in south Wales alone, and it's believed 902 (97%) were started deliberately. All fires were extinguished without having to call in extra support from neighbouring authorities, but resources used to tackle them could've been more productively spent elsewhere. A summit was held on April 29^th with the First Minister, Natural Resources Minister and Education Minister in attendance. They agreed co-ordinated actions in the short, medium and long-term based around education, land management and deterrence.

The fire service already has a strong record on education, visiting every secondary school in affected areas, while the Phoenix Project has a re-offending rate of under 5%. The fire service are now considering using drones to spot fires and identify those who start them. Alongside this there are social media campaigns and extra-curricular activities to divert children from deliberate fire setting.

Natural Resources Wales are considering changes to land management structures to control the spread of fires, such as using fire breaks. Welsh Government will co-ordinate efforts through the Wales Resilience Forum and programmes like Glastir (The Green, Green Glas of Home).

Due to public and community concerns, there's a willingness to help reduce fires and identify arsonists. The Chief Fire Officer in south Wales has visited community groups, and a smart phone app has been developed to report fires. The Minister said that the threat hasn't gone away, so there's no room for complacency.

William Graham AM (Con, South Wales East) appreciated the actions of the Minister and paid tribute to the fire service and emergency call handlers (clip). He asked if the Minister agreed that sentencing guidelines needed to be changed to increase the punishments for these crimes?

The Minister said these fires are becoming "an annual event" and need to be properly addressed through the resilience forum. Over time, the number of grass fires has fallen, but emergency services have to plan for these events and set budgets accordingly. He described changes to sentencing guidelines as an "interesting idea" but preferred to wait upon the outcome of current prosecutions (plus it's non-devolved).

Rhodri Glyn Thomas AM (Plaid, Carms. E & Dinefwr) asked for an expansion on the issues raised at the summit (clip). He also said pressure on emergency services was "huge", and that the response of call centres was "extremely efficient". Rhodri raised concerns about absence levels in the fire service, and whether it was linked to these fires, plus changes in the workforce from full-time officers to, part-time officers. He asked if they would be able to maintain these levels of work?

Leighton said collaboration has increased since the summit on prevention and detection. The balance between full and part-time firefighters was a matter for fire authorities, while fire services had coped with reduced budgets and "made efficiencies". He was satisfied current governance arrangements work, and wouldn't like to see PCC-style elected fire commissioners (unlike policing, fire & rescue services were devolved in 2004).

Jenny Rathbone AM (Lab, Cardiff Central) said the issue needed to be looked at from the other end (clip), calling for third sector bodies like the RSPB and Scouts to stress the importance of natural environments to the whole community, so children are much more minded "to be protectors of nature".

The Minister said the Foundation Phase has commitments to the outdoors and the environment, and there were already a number of voluntary bodies engaging with children. He did, however, stress that not all of the fires were started by children, with two arrests being men in their 30s and 50s. He wouldn't confirm if they were called Ramsay and Stannis respectively.

Eluned Parrott AM (Lib Dem, South Wales Central) condemned the arsonists as "reckless individuals" who not only endanger life through fires but divert resources from other emergencies (clip). She asked several questions, particularly on research into the profile of, and reasons why, people start fires. Eluned also stressed the importance of after-school and holiday activities, as well as schemes like Project Bernie (which appears to be based on DJ Dai from Grand Theft Auto II ).

The Minister said significant research had been done on the motivations of arsonists, and South Wales Police have commissioned further research from Cardiff University on motivations and the effectiveness of social media campaigns. A wide range of school clubs and other activities exist, and he acknowledged that Project Bernie has made a significant impact.

Christine Chapman AM's (Lab, Cynon Valley) constituency was disproportionately affected by the fires (clip). She asked what work has been done with offenders to understand drivers to authorities know what works and what doesn't? She noted the association between deprivation and the fires and whether these communities – in particular boys and men – should be targeted. Finally, she asked about how easy fires were to predict and whether a warning system has been developed?

Leighton said we need to focus on research which has already been done, but admitted it's "not comprehensive". He added it was right to say fires can be predicted and the emergency services' plans have them in mind, but the timing of education programmes/interventions might need to be adjusted accordingly.

Mark Isherwood AM (Con, North Wales) said there were 145 similar fires in north Wales (clip), and the fire services instituted an effective "do you know where your kids are?" campaign. He asked whether community groups were involved in the summit and whether the responsibilities of landowners have been taken into account?

The Minister said social media had been used to engage with parents very effectively. There were too many community groups to take part in the summit, but many were engaged through the fire service. Also, he repeated what he said about land management, adding that fire authorities discuss issues with landowners.

Who can prevent forest fires?

You said "you", by which you were referring to me. That is incorrect. The correct answer is "you".

There have been calls down the years to re-forest/re-wild upland Wales – notably from George Monbiot – in order to increase flood protection in lowland areas. In areas of agricultural use that's perhaps impractical, but elsewhere I would love to see the valleys "re-greened" with native forestry to the same extent as Switzerland. This is one of the reasons why it can't/won't happen.

These fires have always been a background threat but, like flooding, it's time to take it a bit more seriously. Judging by what's been said, to their credit that's precisely what the Welsh Government and emergency services are doing.

Boredom might be a reason – and sensationalist coverage via the likes of Wales Online won't have helped - but none of that is an excuse and I hope those responsible, regardless of age, have the book thrown at them. Due to the topography of the valleys, it's inevitable that one day these fires will threaten entire villages and people will at least lose their homes, if not be killed, as a result.

Christine Chapman raised an important point about warnings. If you're close to a fire it's pretty obvious, but when there's a heightened risk of one starting, it's worth warning people so they can keep an eye out – particularly parents knowing where their children are going.

We've had a noticeably dry year so far. Maybe that was a factor in how the fires were able to spread so quickly. We might also have to accept that these things are increasingly going to start naturally, and so the fire service need the resources to deal with them.

Speaking of resources, for all the talk about defence spending and military recruitment recently, the UK can't properly defend itself from natural disasters (even if there's a criminal element with these fires).

Wales nominally contributes about £1.6billion towards the UK's military budget yet we seem to get very little back in terms of....actual defence from real threats. Perhaps all those kids recruited into the three services from Welsh schools in deprived areas should be sent in to help protect their hometowns during situations like these.

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Environment Bill introduced

Carrier bags, greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity are amongst the areas
targeted by a wide-ranging Environment Bill, which was introduced this week.

Now that the election excitement is dying down, it's time to turn to more mundane matters.

Hot on the heels of the Heritage Bill, Natural Resources Minister, Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside) introduced the latest Welsh law. Bill here (pdf), explanatory memorandum here (pdf).

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Wales in an emergency : Fit for purpose?

The Welsh Government have been criticised for its civil
emergency arrangements by the Wales Audit Office. Now, the
Assembly's committees have had their say.
(Pic : BBC)

Earlier this week, the Assembly's Public Accounts Committee published its report into civil emergency arrangements in Wales, prompted by a critical Wales Audit Office report into some aspects of those arrangements, and partly in the wake of serious flooding in Denbighshire last year.

The report (pdf) made 14 recommendations; broadly speaking :

• The Welsh Government should consider seeking new legislative and statutory powers in relation to civil emergencies.
• Better training, self-assessment and monitoring of performances of emergency responders.
• Improve representation of voluntary bodies on emergency planning committees.

What is a "civil emergency"?

An "emergency" is defined in the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 as any event that threatens, damages or endangers property, the environment or life. That could include serious flooding, major accidents (like plane and train crashes) and even up to and including war and terrorism.

On the ground, emergencies are dealt with by Category One responders (the emergency services, local authorities, health boards and environmental agencies) and Category Two responders (utilities, transport and communications companies).

The government's role - Welsh and UK - is to oversee operations, helping to manage responses or provide resources, like the military.

The difference between a "civil" and a "national" emergency, is the latter usually involves a formal  state of emergency being declared by the UK Government that suspends certain state functions. It's only been used once, AFAIK, and that was during the 1970s fuel crisis. We probably came close to it during the 2000 fuel protests too.

What prompted the inquiry?

As said at the start, this committee inquiry was prompted by a critical Wales Audit Office (WAO) report into this matter from December 2012.

Executive Powers & Devolution

Civil contingencies are a non-devolved matter. However, the Welsh Government would generally be expected to provide leadership for major emergencies in Wales, co-ordinating their response – when appropriate – with the UK Government as part of an agreement between the two governments.

The executive powers are – surprise, surprise – muddied in relation to Wales, while the Scottish Executive have some powers for themselves in this area, perhaps because policing and criminal justice are devolved (so they would be better placed to deal with public disorder issues, for instance).

Category One responders - like the fire service - currently
have to deal with awkward command arrangements during
a civil emergency in Wales.
(Pic : Andrew Wright via fire-engine-photos.com)

This was just one major criticism picked up by the WAO, as it was unclear who was in charge, with the Welsh Government being able to support Category One responders, whilst not being responsible for managing or monitoring them.

On the ground, this meant that the different organisations would, "look to a range of government bodies for leadership" making the management of emergency responses unnecessarily complicated.

Of the many bodies giving evidence to the inquiry, it was generally expected that the Welsh Government should lead emergency responses within Wales. The chair of the Wales Resilience Partnership, Sup.Int Claire Parmenter, said it would clear up matters. However, the WLGA said that they would oppose devolution of further executive powers due to increased administrative demands.

Implementation of the Civil Contingencies Act

The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 was brought in, mostly, because of the threat from terrorism in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. It updated emergency planning legislation, clearly set out who does what, and even led to a somewhat ill-fated public information campaign.

The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 updated older legislation
to meet modern emergency planning requirements
and new threats.
(Pic : West Yorkshire Fire Service)

You could say it contributed to public paranoia. In the main though, the powers have been used in relation to serious environmental emergencies like flooding, and were very effective in the response to the July 7^th 2005 bombings in London. They clearly work.

The WAO found major failings in how Category One responders were implementing their Civil Contingencies Act duties, in particular inconsistent approaches by different bodies and a lack of monitoring of those obligations.

This matters because if emergency planning isn't done properly, when these situations do arise, it can lead to confusion if people don't know precisely who's giving the orders and on what basis, possibly putting lives or property in danger.

Regional Emergency Planning, Budgets & Training

The Welsh Government operate an emergency management fund to compensate local authorities for costs relating to emergency responses. Some emergencies exhaust these budgets rather quickly.

For example, the total cost of the 2011 Fforestfach tyre fire in Swansea was said to be £1.5million, with a grant of £1million from the Welsh Government, leaving a net cost to Swansea Council of £500k. Under the circumstances that would've been a big chunk of their emergency budget I would imagine. It's recommended that both local authorities and Welsh Government take relative exposure to certain risks into account when deciding their emergency budgets.

Emergency planning functions are said to be spread too thinly across too many organisations – a regular recurring theme in Welsh public policy – and should be restructured to a regional level.

*AWOOOOGA*  I'll just leave this here *AWOOOOGA*.

However, significant barriers would need to be overcome to enable that, and are still being investigated by the Welsh Government.

Emergency training exercises take place at UK level twice a year. There are also national-level training exercises in Wales, with few concerns about that training. In spite of that, it's said that Welsh responders aren't "taking full responsibility for assessing their performance" as set out by the UK Government. Could lazy assessment lead to lazy responses?

Social Media & Emergencies

Social media is said to have both positive and negative impacts. The obvious positives are that information can be sent out quickly by authorities. The negatives being that sometimes that information can be faulty, leading to rumours and mis-information being spread quickly too.

During the Gleision mine accident, it's said that information was sometimes spread faster than the emergency services dealt with issues on the ground – not exactly helpful.

The UK Government want to trial mobile alerts, which can be sent to a specific geographical area.

In north Wales, authorities are trying to map vulnerable people (i.e. elderly living on flood plains) so they know precisely who would need to be moved or sheltered during an emergency. I've mentioned something similar on flooding back in January, so I'm glad they've been thinking along the same lines.

Dull, but necessary

Yeah, not one of my most exciting blogs in a long list of not very exciting blogs, but it's rare I can blog about defence issues in Wales without referring to independence.

One of the first duties of any government – devolved or not – is to protect the population. That's why  this inquiry and the WAO report were important.

Emergency planning is something that generally goes on behind the scenes, and we don't really notice it until it's needed. We've had several major incidents recently that have caused serious disruption or loss of life in Wales, including – as mentioned - serious flooding, M4 accidents, the Gleision mine accident and the measles epidemic.

Having skimmed through the report, I doubt there were major failings that could've put lives at risk, but obviously having a clearer understanding of who's in charge of what during an emergency would help enormously.

In terms of the civil response to emergencies themselves, like the report suggests, new ways of warning the public are essential if we want to prevent people putting themselves in harm's way in the first place. That also means all of us using things like Twitter responsibly to prevent rumours getting out of control, as well as treating government advice during emergencies with the utmost seriousness.

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Time to take flooding seriously?

Remember when there was talk of droughts last April?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Wales has been battered by heavy rain and flooding over the last six months. I don't think there are any parts of the country that have escaped disruption over that period - Bridgend town itself looked perilously close to flooding just before Christmas. It's badly affected rail services, caused landslips and has damaged hundreds of homes and businesses.

The three stand-out flooding events have been Ceredigion and Powys in June 2012, Denbighshire in November 2012 and the aforementioned flooding last month, which affected south Wales particularly severely and still ongoing in some areas.

There's no such thing as "bad weather" really, just bad responses to it.

We're used to rain and some flooding as a residential hazard of living in Wales, but what were "once every 50 year events" are becoming "twice/thrice a decade" events. Climate change will inevitably be blamed - and I'm not going to debate the causes here. However, shifts in the North Atlantic jet stream – which has contributed to the rainfall - are (relatively) predictable, although those shifts are likely to happen more often with climate change.

The excess rain is likely to have been caused by shifts
in the North Atlantic jet stream. Is excess building on
flood plains making flooding worse than it
otherwise would be?
(Pic : BBC)

I think (perhaps many others too) the one reason flooding is becoming perceiveably more common is past and present building on flood plains.

As most flat, developable land in Wales is alongside rivers, you can't blame developers for eyeing it up. But building too many houses right next to rivers without providing extensive flood protection is negligent. It's also negligent to plan for/allow too many houses in these areas. It's probably negligent to move next to a river or stream never expecting it to flood, as is a failure to keep streams and brooks clear of debris.

Llyr Huws Gruffydd AM (Plaid, North Wales), recently called for the establishment of a Flood Action Forum for Wales. England has a National Flood Forum, while Scotland has Community Flood Action Groups. The organisation would be an advocate for flood victims, help promote flood prevention and help plan flood defences. I'm actually surprised Wales doesn't currently have one.

There are other, seedier, effects. Ann Jones AM (Lab, Vale of Clwyd) recently warned of doorstep loan sharks taking advantage of flood victims in Denbighshire. As to what I think of those sharks, insert strong epithet. Sounds like "runts".

The Welsh Government has flood action plans and strategies, and works with the Environment Agency and Dwr Cymru to plan flood defences out of its capital budget alongside water management.

The (Welsh) Environment Agency is due to merge with the Countryside Council for Wales and Forestry Commission to form Natural Resources Wales in April. I doubt that will affect the flood protection programme, but obviously merging three large bodies like that could cause administrative problems for the sheer scale of it.

It also doesn't help that the Welsh Government are cutting £30million in capital spending on flood defences over the next four years. That could blemish their – to date - decent record on the environment.

As all things, prevention is the best cure – stop building on flood plains, or at the very least, where flood plains need to be built on, provide extensive flood protection. That could become a statutory requirement as part of planning reforms, or form part of Section 106 agreements.

The Welsh Conservatives included the creation "Blue Belts" in their 2011 manifesto, maybe it's time for the Welsh Government to consider that in any sustainable development or planning bills. If any of these things make a development site "unviable", then developing such a site in the first place should be reconsidered.

By extensive flood protection I mean :

• Concrete walls/flood barriers
• Redirection of rivers and streams
• Levees/Dykes/Embankments
• Fines/prosecutions for not adequately maintaining watercourses

Are more extensive flood defences required in large
parts of Wales? Will they need to be funded by developers?
(Pic : South Wales Argus)

The last should apply to smaller streams as much as rivers. Recently, a blockage in a stream on Network Rail land flooded a block of flats in Brackla, Bridgend - providing an example of poor maintenance leading to flooding.

We also need to consider flood preparation and emergency planning. Concerns were recently raised by the Wales Audit Office about the Welsh Government's responses to civil emergencies.

Some of the criticisms seem a little unfair to be honest. I think the Welsh Government, emergency services and local authorities do a good job in emergencies. Most of the criticism stems from confused boundaries when it comes to responsibilities – so more administrative than practical.

I believe a major issue there is that flood warnings are never taken seriously enough by the media or the public.

Once an emergency becomes apparent, the media are quick to provide extensive coverage – especially local radio and via Twitter feeds etc. But in the period building up to an emergency, they seem reluctant to point out the seriousness of a situation, perhaps in fear of "crying wolf". People usually only take action when it's too late or when a situation becomes life-threatening.

Does the flood warning system in Wales
- and elsewhere - need another revamp?
(Pic : floodwarn.co.uk)

I've mentioned an "emergency alert system" before. I think warnings - not just for flooding but all sorts of severe weather (and perhaps missing children too - aka "Amber Alert") - are going to have to become more invasive. Yes, that means interrupting TV and radio programmes if necessary, perhaps even an expansion of text messaging services that the Environment Agency already provide.

This doesn't need to be Wales-only. It can't anyway as broadcasting isn't devolved. But maybe it's something the UK Government can re-visit. If the climate is going to get rougher over the coming decades, then the public need to be more aware – or at the very least treat a changing climate and severe weather as an immediate danger.

It should also mean greater use of the military (in particular Territorial Army units) in emergency preparations as and when required. It's supposed to be a "Ministry of Defence" after all. How can the UK spend £35billion on defence every year, yet not properly protect its own citizens from excess rainfall?

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