Senedd Debates Brexit

(Pic : Wales Online)

I won't be covering First Minister's Questions this week – even though the business of government and legislature goes on – instead choosing to cover the National Assembly's response to the EU referendum result.

The First Minister said the democratic voice of the people has to be respected, but the debate was very divisive. It's time to abandon unhelpful rhetoric and improve community cohesion (clip). Lengthy negotiations will last years and should start "sooner rather than later". Nobody has a clear idea what that looks like and what UK Government vision is to bring stability to markets and investors. The Welsh Government will work to ensure Wales isn't overlooked and to fight for the best possible deal for Wales. Of primary concern is to ensure our present access to 500 million customers in the single market (European Economic Area – EEA) isn't lost as a competitive advantage.

Any treaty to exit the EU must come before all four parliaments, and the deal should be approved by the Assembly. A specialist team independent of the UK Government has been established to run in parallel with, but not replace, the Welsh place in UK Government negotiations. Wales is committed to remaining outward looking and global in what's an uncertain environment. Work with Tata Steel will continue on the challenges facing them as a result of the vote

On specifics, Wales needs to take part in deciding the timing and terms of EU withdrawal – as promised by the Prime Minister. There's also a need to negotiate the continuation of EU programmes to 2020 and replacements in the longer-term.

The case to review the Barnett formula is now "overwhelming" and needs to take into account EU withdrawal. It's also a massive constitutional shift and the price of Brexit could be the end of the UK itself.

Passions have been raised by the referendum debate, but it's now time for calm, not knee-jerk reactions. People need to find ways to talk to each other again, and the Assembly needs to rise to the challenges and deliver for the Welsh people.

Conservative Leader and leading Leave campaign, Andrew RT Davies AM (Con, South Wales Central), said the referendum was a clear mandate to enact the wishes of the electorate (clip). Speaking over heckling from around the chamber, he said negotiations will start over the next couple of months and years, and it's vital Wales is heard.

Facing accusations that he stabbed David Cameron in the back, he said it's not stabbing someone in the back when you stand up for your beliefs. Moving on, the Leave side want to make sure Wales doesn't lose out; schemes that are currently in place haven't come to an end and will continue until negotiations are concluded. Everyone needs to come together to make this work and innovate in the way we do business.

When pressed by the First Minister to name three specific opportunities offered by Brexit, Andrew couldn't.

Leader of the Opposition, Leanne Wood AM (Plaid, Rhondda) said it was clear that the Leave campaign have no  plan and no clue about what we do next, handing the next UK Government a "poisoned chalice" (clip). Labour are also in chaos and are in no position to provide leadership at a UK level.

She accepts the vote was a reality check for Plaid Cymru, but although people turned against Brussels for a whole host of reasons, 48% of people voted Remain – they should be treated with respect and be offered a positive future. Leave campaigners vowed that up to £490million a year would be available to spend on the Welsh NHS, also that all of Wales' current structural funds, university funds and agricultural funds would be protected. Those promises have already disappeared.

We have to accept the result was for Leave, but it was secured on a false prospectus. There's also a strong possibility the UK will no longer exist, with the referendum dividing rather than uniting the UK. When that situation emerges, Wales deserves a say on our constitutional future, including the option of independence.

UKIP Leader, Neil Hamilton (UKIP, Mid & West Wales) believes the vote gives us something Plaid would welcome : independence (clip). There's the opportunity to make decisions for ourselves, and our priorities will be superior to those of the European Commission. The debate wasn't about nationalism, but democracy. It's true there are uncertainties as a result, similarly when we joined in 1973 – there'll be consequential changes. He asked why would the EU want to raise trade barriers when the UK has a £100billion trade deficit with them?

He argued for steel import tariffs, and batted away concerns from David Rees AM (Lab, Aberavon) that tariffs could be put on exports from Wales, saying they're applied when steel is imported below cost. Neil seems to favour a stand alone free trade agreement with the EU and there's no need to be pessimistic as trade benefits both buyers and sellers. UKIP will work to get Wales the best deal.

Julie Morgan AM (Lab, Cardiff North) attended a recent protest calling for a second referendum and votes for 16-17 year olds (clip). AMs were made aware of the passionate feelings that they had, but they had no say, with young people voting overwhelmingly to remain (though she accepted poor turnout was an issue); the National Assembly may be able to address this in the future via Wales Bill powers. The result wasn't definitive, and it would be right to use any opportunity to check if "this is what the people of Wales want".

Steffan Lewis AM (Plaid, South Wales East) was deeply regretful the debate was happening, but it was based on a democratic mandate (clip). Vows were made to Wales, particularly commitments to spend more money on the NHS and covering every penny of funding to farmers and poor communities. The incoming Prime Minister will have to promise record levels of investment in Wales, but without the savings of EU membership as the EEA (single market) comes with a substantial membership fee.

Plaid won't let people be lied to as they stand to lose too much. Steffan proposed a national mitigation plan to include regional development police, an Economic Fairness Bill and a UK Investment Bank. Nevertheless, he hoped the people of Wales will stand with people in Europe.

Mark Isherwood AM (Con, North Wales) said we must all respect the result, which was the democratic right of people to settle their own destiny (clip). We also need to ensure Wales receives a repatriated share of EU contributions, calling for the Assembly to establish a committee to explore the affect of Brexit. He condemned abusers who've taken advantage of the referendum, but also described the reaction of the markets as "knee-jerk".

In finishing, Mark passionately (to put it mildly) damned "voices of destruction" who seek to impinge the sovereignty and integrity of the UK as "disgraceful" (i.e. people like me – "voice of destruction" has a nice ring to it).

Rhianon Passmore AM (Lab, Islwyn) said the mandate must be accepted, but the narrow margin in Wales also needs to be acknowledged (clip). The UK Government must be held to account to deliver on false promises to Wales and "give us our money back". If they don't, people will have been conned, with the referendum turning families and friends against each other. We need to condemn the reported rise in hate crimes and racism, but we also need to accept that arguments for Remain didn't get through and the challenges ahead need to be explained properly to people, criticising the lacklustre impact of the media.

Caroline Jones AM (UKIP, South Wales West) said it was highly regrettable that David Cameron didn't have the courage to see the Brexit process through to its conclusion, but it's now important we all work together to get the best deal for Wales and the UK – it shouldn't be overshadowed by leadership campaigns (clip). The views of Leave campaigners shouldn't be dismissed either; the majority rule, that's how democracy works – saying the Assembly referendum result in 1997 was much closer. Also, Scotland cannot be allowed to derail Brexit, as they voted to remain in the UK in 2014.

Dawn Bowden AM (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney) sought to be truthful in setting out the dangers of leaving the EU and working to what's best for deprived communities (clip). What was clear is that people voted on things they thought would happen - like the end of immigration - fuelled by the Leave campaign and right-wing press. It was also a desperate vote for change in the face of austerity. Article 50 (which would trigger the formal process for EU withdrawal) should be activated "without delay" to end the uncertainty.

David Melding AM (Con, South Wales Central) told the Assembly that what happened last Thursday matters "bone, blood and breath" with lessons for the Assembly (clip). Questions include what sort of single market should we have? - it'll determine our relationship with the EU in the future, with the Welsh economy the most vulnerable in the UK. As the details are worked through he hoped all Brexiteers will live up to their assurances.

The future of UK also needs to be explored and will have to adapt to survive, with the chances of Scottish independence increasing and dependent partly on what sort of vision there is for relations with the EU. Cross-party working now needs to be encouraged in the Assembly and by government, and the Fifth Assembly will have to show itself  "to be a trusted forum for the advance and defence of Welsh interests in the remarkably challenging times we face".

Jeremy Miles AM (Lab, Neath) said the Welsh rejecting a relationship that was in their interest is a challenge to the Assembly (clip). The loss of money will be hugely detrimental on top of austerity, but this is on a much bigger scale. Despite the optimism of Brexiteers, we're facing a very traumatic period.

He accepted a point from Suzy Davies AM (Con, South Wales West) that there were concerns over how EU funding was spent and a failure to properly convey that it was EU money and not the Welsh Government's. However, Jeremy believes people voted Leave on a belief that investment would continue. Voters wouldn't thank AMs for further constitutional arguments, but there needs to be a proper settlement on funding and our future relationship with the EU.

David Rowlands AM (UKIP, South Wales East) couldn't believe that Labour were still in denial over the desires and aspirations of the working class (clip). Although the national result was close, there were more sizable differences in the south Wales valleys, while UKIP advancements in 2014 and 2016 should've been a "wake-up call". The vote was a direct result of a dislocation of parties from the electorate, not the result of misinformation. This is, however, no time to gloat or bicker as the implications are too important. It was time for cross-party action and consensus - though he's convinced the UK will remain intact.

John Griffiths AM (Lab, Newport East) said we're in uncharted waters, and he had particular concerns on collective security, peace, access to the single market, inward investment and the South Wales Metro – which now faces uncertainty on funding (clip). We need to speed up efforts to tackle poverty to address people wanting to "kick" the establishment. Also, we need to retain an internationalist outlook of the Assembly, which was previously based on the EU – such as Council of Ministers meetings of the Committee of the Regions. A message needs to go out that "Wales is open to the world, and the world is open to Wales."

In reply (clip), the First Minister knew when the debate was tabled they would re-run the arguments, but the result is there. The First Minister didn't support calls for a second referendum as it could push all those who voted Leave towards something "more unpleasant" (i.e. the far-right).

He criticised Andrew Davies for putting himself forward as someone who will contribute to the future of Wales but offering "flowery waffle" instead of naming specific benefits of EU withdrawal. He doesn't take any delight in that as when Leave campaign promises fall apart, voters will take out their anger in other ways; it's the duty of the Leave campaign to explain what happens next and to do it quickly.

Carwyn also said Andrew Davies had spent months complaining about money being spent in Brussels, but now thought it should be controlled by Westminster – a "fundamental attack on devolution".

He disagreed Wales was in the same position on independence as Wales voted Leave, though constitutional changes are needed, and this referendum is the greatest threat the UK's ever known. What's happening in Scotland is very different to 2014 and that could impact Wales. He gave an example of being the only person in his household who, in the future, might not have the right to live and work anywhere in the EU (his wife and children hold Irish passports).

The result won't alter our ability to sell ourselves abroad, but it's vital any deal is ratified by all four parliaments as the UK Government will be negotiating as an English Government in certain devolved areas like agriculture. He reiterated the importance of single market access, saying that outside, car manufacturers could face tariffs of between 5-10%.

In concluding, the First Minister said we face an uncertain world and don't know what the UK will look like. What's important is to provide answers and a vision of a way forward, or that gap will be filled with people whose views as far more extreme. Politicians need to regain the confidence and trust of the public to ensure prosperity, justice and fairness for everyone.

That post was long enough so I won't add any commentary. Tomorrow, I'll look in a bit more detail at what Brexit might mean for Wales, including the economy, immigration, public policy and finances as well as the future of the UK.