Senedd rallies to get Wales moving

Only a third of Welsh schoolchildren get their recommended hour of physical activity a day.
Pic : Road Safety GB)

The latest backbench members debate was on the subject of physical activity, in particular walking and cycling.

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Boring, Boring Senedd

(Pic : topnews.in)

He hasn't been in there long, but one of the new intake of AMs – Steffan Lewis AM (Plaid, South Wales East) – caused (a bit of) a ruckus a few weeks ago after claiming Assembly proceedings were "dull to watch".

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Minister updates Senedd on refugee response

(Pic : Al-Jazeera)

The Syrian refugee crisis has slipped off the front pages in the last fortnight due to Russian military intervention in the conflict, the latest catastrophic brain fart from the US Air Force and party conference season.

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Fried Cymru : The Barby of Wales

The night is dark and full of terrors.
(Pic : ITV Wales)

For several weeks it seemed as though the south Wales valleys were permanently ablaze. It dominated headlines over Easter, but has since drifted from the front pages.The number of grass/forest fires in 2015 are reportedly up 195% on 2014. Trees were destroyed, wildlife killed and homes evacuated as there was very real possibility that the fires would endanger whole villages.

Yesterday, the Public Services Minister, Smokey Bear Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhonnda) issued a statement in the National Assembly updating AMs on current actions taken to prevent similar fires in the future, perhaps with the forthcoming school summer holidays in mind.

The Minister issued a written statement during the height of the crisis on April 21st (clip). Subsequently, as a result of these "criminal acts of a small number of individuals", more people have been detained during this latest round of fires that were detained in the previous five years. He condemned those who started the fires, and praised the emergency services and tough stance of the police.

There were 933 fires in south Wales alone, and it's believed 902 (97%) were started deliberately. All fires were extinguished without having to call in extra support from neighbouring authorities, but resources used to tackle them could've been more productively spent elsewhere. A summit was held on April 29^th with the First Minister, Natural Resources Minister and Education Minister in attendance. They agreed co-ordinated actions in the short, medium and long-term based around education, land management and deterrence.

The fire service already has a strong record on education, visiting every secondary school in affected areas, while the Phoenix Project has a re-offending rate of under 5%. The fire service are now considering using drones to spot fires and identify those who start them. Alongside this there are social media campaigns and extra-curricular activities to divert children from deliberate fire setting.

Natural Resources Wales are considering changes to land management structures to control the spread of fires, such as using fire breaks. Welsh Government will co-ordinate efforts through the Wales Resilience Forum and programmes like Glastir (The Green, Green Glas of Home).

Due to public and community concerns, there's a willingness to help reduce fires and identify arsonists. The Chief Fire Officer in south Wales has visited community groups, and a smart phone app has been developed to report fires. The Minister said that the threat hasn't gone away, so there's no room for complacency.

William Graham AM (Con, South Wales East) appreciated the actions of the Minister and paid tribute to the fire service and emergency call handlers (clip). He asked if the Minister agreed that sentencing guidelines needed to be changed to increase the punishments for these crimes?

The Minister said these fires are becoming "an annual event" and need to be properly addressed through the resilience forum. Over time, the number of grass fires has fallen, but emergency services have to plan for these events and set budgets accordingly. He described changes to sentencing guidelines as an "interesting idea" but preferred to wait upon the outcome of current prosecutions (plus it's non-devolved).

Rhodri Glyn Thomas AM (Plaid, Carms. E & Dinefwr) asked for an expansion on the issues raised at the summit (clip). He also said pressure on emergency services was "huge", and that the response of call centres was "extremely efficient". Rhodri raised concerns about absence levels in the fire service, and whether it was linked to these fires, plus changes in the workforce from full-time officers to, part-time officers. He asked if they would be able to maintain these levels of work?

Leighton said collaboration has increased since the summit on prevention and detection. The balance between full and part-time firefighters was a matter for fire authorities, while fire services had coped with reduced budgets and "made efficiencies". He was satisfied current governance arrangements work, and wouldn't like to see PCC-style elected fire commissioners (unlike policing, fire & rescue services were devolved in 2004).

Jenny Rathbone AM (Lab, Cardiff Central) said the issue needed to be looked at from the other end (clip), calling for third sector bodies like the RSPB and Scouts to stress the importance of natural environments to the whole community, so children are much more minded "to be protectors of nature".

The Minister said the Foundation Phase has commitments to the outdoors and the environment, and there were already a number of voluntary bodies engaging with children. He did, however, stress that not all of the fires were started by children, with two arrests being men in their 30s and 50s. He wouldn't confirm if they were called Ramsay and Stannis respectively.

Eluned Parrott AM (Lib Dem, South Wales Central) condemned the arsonists as "reckless individuals" who not only endanger life through fires but divert resources from other emergencies (clip). She asked several questions, particularly on research into the profile of, and reasons why, people start fires. Eluned also stressed the importance of after-school and holiday activities, as well as schemes like Project Bernie (which appears to be based on DJ Dai from Grand Theft Auto II ).

The Minister said significant research had been done on the motivations of arsonists, and South Wales Police have commissioned further research from Cardiff University on motivations and the effectiveness of social media campaigns. A wide range of school clubs and other activities exist, and he acknowledged that Project Bernie has made a significant impact.

Christine Chapman AM's (Lab, Cynon Valley) constituency was disproportionately affected by the fires (clip). She asked what work has been done with offenders to understand drivers to authorities know what works and what doesn't? She noted the association between deprivation and the fires and whether these communities – in particular boys and men – should be targeted. Finally, she asked about how easy fires were to predict and whether a warning system has been developed?

Leighton said we need to focus on research which has already been done, but admitted it's "not comprehensive". He added it was right to say fires can be predicted and the emergency services' plans have them in mind, but the timing of education programmes/interventions might need to be adjusted accordingly.

Mark Isherwood AM (Con, North Wales) said there were 145 similar fires in north Wales (clip), and the fire services instituted an effective "do you know where your kids are?" campaign. He asked whether community groups were involved in the summit and whether the responsibilities of landowners have been taken into account?

The Minister said social media had been used to engage with parents very effectively. There were too many community groups to take part in the summit, but many were engaged through the fire service. Also, he repeated what he said about land management, adding that fire authorities discuss issues with landowners.

Who can prevent forest fires?

You said "you", by which you were referring to me. That is incorrect. The correct answer is "you".

There have been calls down the years to re-forest/re-wild upland Wales – notably from George Monbiot – in order to increase flood protection in lowland areas. In areas of agricultural use that's perhaps impractical, but elsewhere I would love to see the valleys "re-greened" with native forestry to the same extent as Switzerland. This is one of the reasons why it can't/won't happen.

These fires have always been a background threat but, like flooding, it's time to take it a bit more seriously. Judging by what's been said, to their credit that's precisely what the Welsh Government and emergency services are doing.

Boredom might be a reason – and sensationalist coverage via the likes of Wales Online won't have helped - but none of that is an excuse and I hope those responsible, regardless of age, have the book thrown at them. Due to the topography of the valleys, it's inevitable that one day these fires will threaten entire villages and people will at least lose their homes, if not be killed, as a result.

Christine Chapman raised an important point about warnings. If you're close to a fire it's pretty obvious, but when there's a heightened risk of one starting, it's worth warning people so they can keep an eye out – particularly parents knowing where their children are going.

We've had a noticeably dry year so far. Maybe that was a factor in how the fires were able to spread so quickly. We might also have to accept that these things are increasingly going to start naturally, and so the fire service need the resources to deal with them.

Speaking of resources, for all the talk about defence spending and military recruitment recently, the UK can't properly defend itself from natural disasters (even if there's a criminal element with these fires).

Wales nominally contributes about £1.6billion towards the UK's military budget yet we seem to get very little back in terms of....actual defence from real threats. Perhaps all those kids recruited into the three services from Welsh schools in deprived areas should be sent in to help protect their hometowns during situations like these.

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Poverty Inquiry : Poverty & Inequality

The modern image of poverty is something like the above, but it should also include
low-paid care workers, part-time shop assistants and people priced out of housing.
(Pic : Swansea Sound)

Earlier this week, the Assembly's Communities & Local Government Committee launched the first report of a four-part inquiry into poverty in Wales (pdf) - and a 10-page summary (pdf). Each strand of the inquiry has its own terms of reference, and this first report focuses on how poverty is measured, defined and generally dealt with at a national level.

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Tattoos, Bans & Bogs - The Public Health Bill

The Public Health Bill is a wide-ranging law, prompting controversy over
a proposed ban on the use of e-cigarettes in indoor public spaces.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Earlier this week, the Health Minister, Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West), introduced what's likely to be one of the most controversial and substantial laws of the Fourth Assembly, instigating one of those rare occasions where Welsh politics has made UK-wide headlines - not necessarily in flattering terms either.

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Mo' money, mo' problems

They asked the audience....then completely ignored them.

Last year, the Independent Remuneration Panel for the National Assembly proposed a change in AMs' and ministers' pay (The £64,000 Question).

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Domestic Violence Bill introduced to National Assembly

There were estimated to be more than 420,000 victims of domestic
violence (both genders combined) in Wales during 2011-12.
(Pic : South Wales Evening Post)

Today's legislative news is dominated by the "flagship" Future Generations Bill, which I'll hopefully come back to at the end of the week.

In other Welsh law news you might've noticed, after an extensive and lengthy consultation which garnered some 150 responses, last week, Local Government Minister Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham) introduced the Gender-based Violence, Domestic Abuse and Sexual Violence Bill to the National Assembly.

You know the drill. Bill here (pdf), explanatory memorandum here (pdf).

Gender-based violence : The need for a new law

According to the 2011-12 EnglandandWales Crime Survey, in Wales alone :

• 11.7% of women and 5.1% of men say they've been victims of any kind of domestic abuse.
• 3.2% of women and 0.7% of men say they've been victims of sexual assault.
• 7.8% of women and 3.5% of men say they've been victims of stalking.

All of this has an economic impact too; in terms of public spending, sickness rates and police investigations. Based on figures produced in a 2009 report from Lancaster University's Prof. Sylvia Walby (pdf), the cumulative cost (economic, public service and emotional) of domestic violence could be as high as £826.4million in Wales (on a population share figure). That figure doesn't including gender-based violence like female genital mutilation and sexual assaults.

At present, the Welsh Government say that domestic and gender-based violence is a complex issue, with many public sector bodies involved in dealing with it. Indeed, the devolution settlement itself only partially covers it.

The main aims of the Bill – in shorthand – are to : provide leadership from the top through a national strategy, place duties on public sector organisations to correctly report and work together when it comes to possible cases of domestic or gender-based violence, and take preventative measures to prevent such violence from happening in the first place.

What does the Bill propose?

Public bodies - like the fire service and local health boards - will be required under the
proposed law to develop strategies to improve responses to suspected cases of abuse.
(Pic : Eric Jones via BBC Wales)

Strategies & Guidance

The Act will :

• Place a duty on the Welsh Government to :
• Produce a national strategy for domestic and gender-based violence sometime in the second half of 2016, setting out their objectives and timescales for achieving them.
• Set out a number of measurable indicators to determine if they're meeting the goals of their national strategy or the Act in general.
• Submit an annual report on their progress to the National Assembly.
• Place a duty on local government and local health boards to produce their own joint local strategies - along the same lines as the national one - within one year of the next local authority elections (scheduled for May 2017). They'll also have to produce an annual report each financial year.
• Grant Welsh Ministers the power to issue guidance to relevant authorities (local government, fire service, local health boards etc.) - which they must follow - setting out what they should do in terms of preventing domestic and gender-based violence, training staff, sharing information between each other and co-operation. This guidance will need to be approved by the National Assembly.
• Grants Welsh Ministers the power to issue directions to authorities in order for them to comply with the Act if they are failing to do so.

Ministerial Adviser

The Act will :

• Create the post of Ministerial Adviser on Gender-based Violence, Domestic Abuse and Sexual Violence, paid for directly by the Welsh Government.
• Set out the adviser's role as (broadly-speaking) undertaking research and advising ministers (or other individuals/organisations) on issues falling under the Act. They'll also have to produce and publish an annual plan setting out what they intend to do.

The scope of Gender-based Violence, Domestic Abuse and Sexual Violence

The Act broadly covers :

• "Abuse" – defined as physical, sexual, psychological, emotional or financial abuse (property theft, fraud, pressure to spend/misuse money).
• "Domestic Abuse" – "abuse" where the victim is associated with the abuser via : marriage, engagement, civil partnership, live-in relationship, relatives (presumably including step-relatives), boyfriend/girlfriend or through joint parental responsibility.
• "Female genital mutilation (FGM)" – as outlined in the Female Genital Mutilation Act 2003.
• "Harassment" – Speech or other action that a reasonable person would consider to be harassment. The Crown Prosecution Service have more specific definitions of harassment and stalking.
• "Sexual exploitation" – as outlined in Part 1 of the Sexual Offences Act 2003.

So what's important here isn't the Bill/future Act itself but the proposed national strategy. This could include (based on the content of the explanatory memorandum) :

• "Ask & Act" – Professionals (hinted as meaning NHS workers, social workers, teachers, police and firefighters) will be encouraged to ask people they suspect of being abused if they are being abused, and then – through training and guidance – encouraged to act on that in order to prevent any suspected abuse from continuing.
• Multi-agency forums – Collaboration to ensure there's a consistent approach across the public sector.
• A National Training Framework – New training guidelines will ensure a consistent approach to care of suspected victims of abuse, split into 6 levels. Level 1 training is the basic level that would cover all public service staff, Level 3 covers professionals and specialists who work directly with victims, while Level 6 covers high-level strategy.
• Public information campaigns and education programmes – Compulsory relationship lessons in schools have been dropped from the Bill itself, but that doesn't mean they can't be included in the national strategy, part of training for teachers (under the new training framework) or included as part of the current review of the national curriculum.

How much will this cost?

The new National Training Framework will cost a total of £2.8million over the next four years, with just under £440,000 being spent directly by the Welsh Government, and the rest picked up jointly by public service organisations.

Introducing the training and guidance for "Ask and Act" will cost another £2.8million over four years, with the Welsh Government spending £374,000 directly.

The multi-agency forums will cost £7,000 (to pay a specialist to establish them). The cost of the government adviser will be £244,000 in total over the next four years, including the £11,000 cost of recruiting them. I'm sure there are plenty of "insiders" eying up the job.

The cost of establishing a Commissioner (similar to that for Older People, Children etc.) - which was considered as an option - would've been somewhere between £585,000 and £630,000 per year. This was rejected in favour of the cheaper government adviser post instead.

So the total cost of the legislation – if passed – from 2014-15 to 2018-19 will be £5.61million (~£1.4million per year), mostly borne by the Welsh public sector at large. Based on the statistics given (16.8% of over 16s, or 424,578 people), it works out at around £3.36 per victim of domestic violence per year.

The explanatory memorandum says that it's "not possible" to quantify the financial benefits, but it's worth again pointing towards the estimated total £826.4million impact of such violence and behaviour on the Welsh purse.

The Relationship Lessons, Gender & Smacking Issues
        

The first big change from the original proposal was that, as aforementioned, compulsory relationship education lessons for schoolchildren have been dropped from the Bill.

You would expect this sort of thing to be covered in PSE lessons anyway under the National Curriculum – which, as said, is currently under review. I don't think it's ever been made clear precisely what "relationship education" means in practice, and I suspect the Welsh Government are trying to prevent - what I've called before – a "curriculum by statute" developing where the curriculum is set inflexibly through laws. I wouldn't be surprised though if this ends up back in the Bill after it's gone through committee. It's too valuable as a preventative measure to ignore completely.

The Bill also drew complaints from Wales Violence Against Women Action Group's Dr Mwenya Chimba for not specifically focusing on women - whether titular or in the content of the Bill itself. This law was, of course, originally touted as a "Violence against Women Bill".

The only specific reference to women and girls relates to female genital mutilation (aka. FGM, female circumcision); an issue which I explored in a bit more graphic detail last year (Life, Ethics & Independence III – Circumcision).

It's a matter of cold hard fact that gender-based and domestic violence disproportionately affects women and girls, and the Welsh Government acknowledge that in the explanatory memorandum.

The Welsh Government would've been negligent though if a Bill that focuses on domestic and gender-based violence ignored male victims. I'm not just referring to heterosexual men. The law would've been on shaky ground from the start if, for example, a lesbian couple falls under the Bill's provisions, but a gay couple doesn't. That's before adding transgenders into the mix. This sort of violence and emotional entrapment is wrong regardless of who's on the receiving end or who's dishing it out.

The Welsh Government were, therefore, absolutely right to make this Bill gender neutral, and get a thumbs up from me for doing so, as I'm sure they will from organisations that work with male victims of domestic violence.

I just hope AMs maintain the law's gender neutrality and don't cave in to pressure from the third sector to change it. Also, the strategies themselves should remain gender neutral too - though they could include measures specifically aimed at either gender where appropriate.

Unfortunately, and less complimentary to the Welsh Government, we have this law trying to protect adults from domestic abuse, yet the Welsh Government seem to be fine with hitting children as a form of punishment. This could provide a perfect opportunity for AMs to revisit a smacking ban if they so wish.

A (potentially) good law with no bite

In the absence of any control over the criminal justice side of this
kind of abuse, the outlined measures look limp - but still welcome.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

It's worth saying from the outset that this is the absolute maximum the Welsh Government can do to address the issues under the devolution settlement.

As criminal justice isn't devolved, this doesn't update/alter criminal law or create any new offences relating to domestic or gender-based violence. That's probably the Bill's biggest weakness, and so it reads like a highly technical administrative law that's unlikely to generate much in the way of headlines or public interest.

It looks like it's been stripped down compared to what was originally proposed during the drafting and white paper phases too. It gives the impression of being another "Enabling Act" that gives a lot of power to ministers (via setting the strategy) without clearly outlining within the Bill itself what they're going to do with said powers.

It's also unclear if the perpetrators of violence are going to get the help they need. Supporting victims has to be the priority, but some perpetrators might have undiagnosed or untreated mental illnesses, or grew up in an environment where domestic or gender-based violence was the norm.

Despite all that, at least the Welsh Government are doing something about it, and it genuinely could go some way to helping victims and their families over the next few years. It's often attitudes within key public services that lets victims down – whether it's because abuse has gone unreported or it's not taken seriously enough - and that's the law's focus.

It still needs some work though.

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"Devo-wuh?" Young attitudes towards Welsh devolution

Last week, Changing Union published a short but sweet report authored by Prof. Roger Scully entitled "Attitudes of Young People towards devolution". You can read it in English here (pdf) and Welsh here (pdf).

There's a Click on Wales piece from one of Changing Union's co-ordinators, Lleu Williams, and a post on Cardiff University's Elections in Wales blog from Prof. Scully himself, challenging some of the headlines resulting from this. It's perhaps been overshadowed by the Silk Commission poll - more on that from Syniadau.

The Findings

The report compares data relating to two age groups across a few different surveys : 18-35 year olds ("young voters") and over-35s.

• Both age groups broadly support more powers for the Assembly or the status quo, with the young more likely to support the status quo and older voters further powers.
• Support for both abolishing devolution and independence fell sharply in both age groups since 1997. More over-35s prefer scrapping devolution (~17%) compared to 18-35s (12%).
• A majority of older voters think the Assembly has the most influence over decisions in Wales (55%) compared to the young (41-42%). 20% of young voters "Don't Know", compared to less than 10% of over-35s.
• A majority across both age groups believe the Assembly ought to have the most influence over health, education, policing and criminal justice, with stronger support amongst older voters.
• Similar percentages across both age groups support tax powers for the Assembly (~37%).
• There's greater support for more powers - and significantly greater support for independence - amongst both age groups in Scotland compared to Wales. The percentage of "Don't Knows" with regard constitutional choices is similar in both countries across both age groups.

The Conclusions

The report's obvious one is that there's "lower levels of engagement amongst the young", reflected in "lower rates of voter turnout" and "less certainty" in their views on devolution. We knew that anyway, it's a long-standing problem.

There are other conclusions too. Based on policy influence preferences - and backed by the Silk Commission poll this week - there's strong support for further Assembly powers across the board, falling short of independence, with little appetite to turn back the clock. That hints that the Assembly has "established itself" as an institution.

On the lack of enthusiasm for devolution amongst many young people, The Western Mail's reaction was slightly hysterical. Support for independence is softer amongst the young than you might expect, but clearly there in abundance in the case of further powers.

It makes sobering reading for both devo-abolitionists, and nationalists who support independence like myself. Both groups are significantly out of step with public opinion - but I guess we knew that anyway. Unlike devo-abolitionists though, I think those of us in the latter category can live with a more powerful Assembly. If nationalists play the long game, we'll win.

A lot's been said about "what" and "how" on youth apathy, so I think it's worth turning to the "why". For once, I speak with a little authority as I fall within that "young voter" category.

Getting to know "Generation Y"

To understand why "we" (18-35 year olds) aren't bothering with politics, it's worth understanding what Generation Y - roughly those born between 1980-1999 - are like as a whole.

Vain – We're often dubbed "narcissists" and "entitled". I don't think that's necessarily true, but we are image conscious and individualistic. We think we need to be seen to live a certain lifestyle. We like to brag, and feel smug about making surface-deep "right choices" in clothes, lifestyles, technology etc. In politics, this translates into backing popular and charismatic individuals over parties.

Insecure - Unless you're settled with a decent job or family, the vanity hides an insecurity. We've taken the biggest hits from the recession. We're not going to get the same levels of retirement support as our parents and grandparents. Also, as a whole, we're trying to find a sense of generational purpose, with many living an extended adolescence. We might feel let down by politicians/politics, considering we've been guinea pigs for many of their reforms to schools, universities, housing and the economy - especially from the Thatcher and Blair years.

Mobile – We lack real job security so tend to change employer often. We travel more, and are generally (but not always) more willing to live in rented accommodation for long periods. We still have "roots" as that's a Welsh characteristic, but we don't live by it. We like flexible working, doing things on the move, and we don't sit down to watch the news or read newspapers. Everything is instant, and we're – on the whole - uncertain decision-makers because we're constantly bombarded with information in our jobs and free time.

Tech-savvy – "Nerd" and "geek" are more positive labels than they've been in the past. We live a lot of our lives through the internet, gadgets and mobile phones. It makes us think we're all connected and "social", but it hides a loneliness too. This doesn't mean we're good at science and engineering either, it just means most modern technology is user-friendly. Modern politics isn't.

Time rich, cash poor – One of the reasons I'm doing this blog is because it's free. People my age are rather boring, unlikely to produce any great counter-culture, adopt "retro" trends because we lack originality, all whilst focusing on someone else's idea of style over our own creativity. Politics is seen as highly-focused and intensive, and not something worth bothering with unless you have ambitions of actually becoming a politician. There are plenty of other things we can do with our time.

Politics without ideology – Perhaps by being the first post-Cold War generation we see politics as a series of "issues" and "causes" that need fixing rather than a clash between left and right. People still fighting the Cold War at this age – as I once did – stick out like a sore thumb. We're mainly socially liberal, so don't tolerate "bans" and "restrictions", but more ambiguous on economic policy - perhaps even slightly conservative. If we vote in larger numbers as we get older, we're going to be a politician's nightmare as we'll be impossible to please.

Why might some young voters blank devolution?

You can picture the youth of Wales getting as excited about a referendum
for the National Assembly to vary income taxes by 10p, can't you?
(Pic : salon.com)

We've been let down too – Younger people are as likely to be dissatisfied with how Welsh devolution turned out as older people. Bungs like tuition fee changes, EMAs and apprenticeships will only go so far. We're concerned with bigger issues like health, education (if we want to have children of our own) as well as things like transport and the economy.  We just won't admit it, as we know we won't be listened to - which can be very embarrassing seeing as we're adults.

We didn't vote or campaign for devolution, it's just "there" – Today's 35 year old would've been 19 at the time of the 1997 referendum. Today's 18-24 year olds will barely remember the time before devolution. I'd only just turned 13, and I don't recall if I had an opinion on it. Today's Wales was born from 60s and 70s activism, so younger people won't share a similar "spiritual/emotional connection" to devolution as those who campaigned for or against it. To us, it's a national institution that we grew up with in the background. It's nothing special, sacred or unique. Nor is it an abomination that undermines traditions.

We don't understand it – This shows up in the report as a high percentage of "Don't Knows" on the question of the Assembly's levels of influence and constitutional preferences.

That might be because young people are - like some older folks - unclear on what the Assembly does and what its powers are. Those things are hard to explain to audiences who lack any pre-existing political interest or knowledge. It's still - despite the 2011 referendum - quite technical. The Assembly might not be considered powerful enough to get too interested or involved with, whilst there's also the problem of the Assembly not being "seen" full stop.

It's boring, and any coverage we do get is cynical - Politics is supposed to be boring as that's how mistakes get ironed out. With many distractions, it's hard to get passionate about law-making, committee reports and public service performances.

For example, the Assembly's integrated transport inquiry was excellent and I think I did an OK job of whittling 60-odd pages to under 2,000 words. I received ten times the focus for a non-story about hotels a few weeks later.

Consider yourselves "lucky" I still cover things like laws, policies and committee reports. If I were dependant on maintaining regular high levels of interest, I would've dropped them and concentrated on character assassinations, conspiracy theories and gossip. That's clearly where interest lies, except the problem is that none of that stuff is "politics" nor actually relevant to anything.

We're disenchanted with politics - It's more correct to say young people are "disenchanted" (disappointed with what it is) rather than "disengaged". We do get excited about "single-issue causes" and "grand issues",  just not traditional party and institutional politics. That's probably for the same reasons as older people, or we grew up with such a cloud of cynicism hanging over politics that we just absorbed it as we got older.

The only "grand issue" in Wales is never-ending constitutional masturbation surrounding the Assembly's powers. I've said it several times, but even I don't get excited about that. I consider it tedious, bordering on an insult to our intelligence. We will be back here again and again and again until we have parity with Scotland at least.

We didn't get that in 1997. We didn't get it from the Richard Commission. We didn't get that in 2006 or 2011. You can see that I don't have high hopes for Silk.
It could all be done in 3 years, but we'll be waiting 30.

That's one reason why I would describe myself as "disenchanted". Ask others my age, and you'll probably get hundreds of different reasons.

We're under-represented – This is our own fault for not voting in large numbers, not registering to vote and not standing in elections. However, that's mainly because of disenchantment, lack of interest and seeing it as something for aspiring "career politicians", not ordinary people. I hardly know anybody my age – internet aside - who's a member of a party, movement or an active member of a trade union. Based on Welsh demographics, the Assembly should have at least 9 AMs aged 35 or under. There's one.

What can be done?

 Generation Y's politicians will think of it as a career - not a public service - and will
be thin on the ground. We may as well accept it, as it's better than nothing.
(Pic : British Youth Council)

Not much if I'm completely honest. But there's hope.

It's unscientific, but my Facebook page reach (those who see the posts) hints that the majority (66%) of this blog's readers are – bucking the trend – aged between 18 and 44 (those aged 25-34 the biggest subgroup) with a roughly 55-45 split in favour of men. Page "likes" are similar in terms of demographics, but with an one-sided 80-20 split in favour of men.

I'm not surprised that it's mainly "the boys" who will openly admit to reading/liking this blog, and I suspect 90%+ of the people who leave comments are male too. However, I'm glad women do see/read it as I hope it's seen as relevant to everyone.

I suspect many are political anoraks, activists or party workers in some shape or form. So there is interest amongst young voters, the problem's that they're likely in the "political bubble" anyway.

We have our youth parliamentary organisation – Funky Dragon – and many local councils have youth councils and mayors. That's fine, but I don't think going out and "nagging" young people to be interested in politics and devolution "for their own good" is going to work.
The single biggest fix is more young candidates in "proper government", not farmed off into "yoof parliaments" and student councils. Bridgend, for example, elected at least three councillors aged 35 or under in 2012 : Luke Ellis (Lab, Pyle), Ross Thomas (Lab, Maesteg West) - who's since become Mayor of Maesteg - and Hailey Townsend (Lab, Brackla). So it can be done organically without any positive discrimination.

Of course, those of us interested/involved in politics are going to say it's the most important thing in the world. If politicians and outreach workers are struggling to make it sound relevant and interesting, then the simplest answer is that Welsh politics just isn't relevant and interesting full stop.

Welsh politics is, quite often, painful to follow for its grinding processes and limp outcomes - not the performance of politicians themselves, who I don't have a issue with and who have a tough enough job as it is. They can only work with what they've got and can't perform miracles.

One day, those currently aged 18-35 are going to inherit the country. You better be damned sure we're interested enough to care, or there'll be a vacuum and I dread to think what will fill it.

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The Internet on Trial

With extreme internet content once again in the spotlight, are arguments
surrounding "blocking sites/content" fundamentally flawed?
(Pic : BBC)

We'll all have been shocked by the murder of April Jones, which has resulted in the issue of extreme internet websites and online child abuse being raised again, after it was revealed during his trial that murderer Mark Bridger had searched for child abuse images on the internet.

At this week's FMQs, there was this (edited) exchange between Russell George and Carwyn Jones :

Russell George AM (Con, Montgomery) : In light of this horrific case (April Jones murder), there have been increased demands....across the UK, that internet companies such as Google should take tougher action to stamp out images of child abuse and pornographic sites online. What discussions have you had with the UK Government and other devolved administrations on this....to adopt a zero-tolerance policy in relation to such content?

Carwyn Jones : There are some that take the view that the internet should be as uncensored as possible. I do not take that view when it comes to....child pornography. I cannot see what advantage there is in allowing unfettered access to something that would be a crime if it were published in a magazine....I am willing to write....to the Prime Minister to ask him what his response might be....I would certainly....pursue this to the greatest extent that I can.

A few months earlier – on 5^th February, Safer Internet Day - there's this related exchange during FMQs. Here's a edited version of what the First Minister said in response to an initial question from Gwyn Price, and follow ups from Bethan Jenkins (Plaid, South Wales West), William Graham (Con, South Wales East) and Rebecca Evans (Lab, Mid & West Wales) on the issue of internet safety and online content.

Initial Question, Gwyn Price AM (Lab, Islwyn) : Will the First Minister make a statement on what the Welsh Government can do to stop children accessing age inappropriate material online?

Carwyn Jones : Of course, we cannot stop it completely as we do not control the internet. However, we recommend....ISPs encourage parents to enable parental controls. We are working to ensure that resources are available for educating children on appropriate use of the internet.

We have worked with UK Safer Internet Centre to provide bilingual school packs....(lesson plans etc)....I know the Children's Commissioner is also working to raise awareness of the issue. One of the best ways of doing that is to ensure that....parents are able to be informed....of what can be done to restrict internet access to harmful sites.

It's difficult to restrict access in the home....It is often difficult to understand what age-appropriate content is. For example, the age certification system...for video games....is different for that for films. It's important we are in a position to educate children....and parents as well. Directors general within the Government have been asked to hold discussions....with a view to formulating.....a Welsh Government policy in terms of what is age-appropriate material....I will report back to Members about progress of that work.

It is important that parents understand what their children are accessing online....and what they're saying through websites like Facebook. The (Hwb e-learning) platform allows us to centrally host e-safety resources....available to all 3-19 year olds, and will also enable teachers to raise awareness of....online safety with pupils and parents alike.

I don't think there's much argument against what the First Minister said in both cases. It's clear he doesn't support a "clamp down" on the internet as an open forum. What he's referring to is child pornography and other online criminal activity. I think we'd all agree with that.

The First Minister - and the other AMs - mean well, and their calls for action are completely understandable.

However, the issue goes deeper than Google, and much deeper than simply blocking sites. Calling for search engines and ISPs to block content as if it's a magic cure is wide of the mark, because it shows a misunderstanding of precisely how it all works in the first place.

Beyond Google - The internet's dark underbelly

This is usually how criminal activity online is sourced and distributed
- and not a search engine in sight.
(Pic : The Australian)

Most criminal activity on the internet doesn't involve the "surface web" – webpages you can access via search engines. Criminal activity usually occurs on what's called the "deep web".

The only way you can access it is through anonymous networking using applications like Tor, or sharing illegal content via peer-to-peer (P2P) file-sharing. Search engine "bots" – which find content for sites like Google – simply don't work there. So hardly anything in the "deep web" actually makes it to the "surface" – including child pornography.

Paedophiles are caught out either when the content's found on their computer, they're identified via that content, or via "sting operations" carried out by the likes of the Child Exploitation and Online Protection Centre (CEOP).

Things like Tor and P2P are impossible to police. It's probably the main reason why wide-ranging blocks and filters haven't been introduced yet. It's very easy to get around, policing it would also be very resource intensive and the technological requirements are daunting.

To completely eliminate the problem, you would need to fundamentally change how the internet works. That could be by developing a Chinese-style "walled garden", where only approved sites are allowed - which would end the internet as an open forum and would be an extreme reaction. There's also blocking secure traffic, which would end internet shopping, gaming and banking overnight.

You simply can't look up extreme content via search engines like Google. In fact, the Internet Watch Foundation (IWF) has a blacklist to block sites, with co-operation from ISPs. The panicked thrashing about "making Google live up to their responsibilities" or "blocking child abuse sites" is unlikely to have any impact.

They can try it, but it won't work.
(Pic : blogistan.co.uk)

So, journalists writing exposés about the dark world of the internet - and how easily they could find child abuse images via Google - are either making it up, not looking at child pornography (but staged adult pornography) or doing it under the direct supervision of CEOP.

Also, under UK law, even looking at child pornography is a criminal offence. So journalists claiming they've seen it should be expecting a knock on the door then? Brown trousers at Daily Mail towers, surely?

If an automated filter were set up, it's likely to flag up "false positives" due to image labelling. An image of a child in a nappy might be blocked, while real child abuse – labelled with some encryption – would pass. A famous example being the temporary blocking of Scorpion's Virgin Killer album cover on Wikipedia (it's probably best not to look it up) by the IWF.
Basically, it's media campaigners pressuring people, politicians, search engines and ISPs to "try and do something", that's not likely to solve the underlying problem in the first place, and instead lead to the creation of a filtering system that will likely block "legitimate" content instead.
Like it or not - and however distasteful it might be - things like adult porn are legitimate. There are also plenty of ways you can block that already.

Looking for answers to the unanswerable questions

We all want to know "why"?
However, it probably doesn't lie on the internet, more in the
head of one sick individual.
(Pic : The Guardian)

I hate to say this - as I would like to see something done too - but it's all a load of poop. People and newspapers are embarrassing themselves by debating it in such 2 dimensional terms.

I think Carwyn got it right in his Feb 5^th responses : better use of parental controls, better awareness, better reporting and flagging of criminal online content (including the system proposed by April's parents) and add top quality investigations by CEOP to that too.

In my opinion, many people look for the easiest way to explain activities that defy the boundaries of normal behaviour – and there's nothing that defies those boundaries quite like a child murder.

"Why?" is always the hardest question to answer in cases like that.

Children have been abducted, abused, raped and murdered long before the internet existed. The lack of an internet didn't stop Jimmy Savile, did it? Or the Moors murderers? Clamp down on the illegal stuff by all means, but blaming "the internet" is reminiscent of arguments that "video nasties", violent computer games and Marilyn Manson turned people into monsters. All largely disproven.

Ultimately, Mark Bridger killed April Jones because, for whatever reason, he knew what he was doing and wanted to do it – like all murderers. He just happened to be a paedophile as well, further adding to the revulsion, misery and outrage surrounding his heinous crime.

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Census 2011 : What's stunting Welsh?

As you probably all know, census data released at the end of 2012 showed a 1.8% decline in the Welsh-speaking population compared to 2001.

As far as I'm concerned, there are other issues and statistics that are perhaps more worrying – in particular working age people without qualifications and those with a long-term limiting illness. I'll return to those at a later date, as I doubt there's enough to work off as yet.

Today though, I'm going to sift through the numbers and patterns and try and come up with explanations for the decline.

The decline : Where? & By how much?

There are two key statistics here.

Firstly, Welsh-speakers as a percentage of the population. Using the raw figures provided by Syniadau, I've drawn up maps to illustrate the changes visually.

Welsh-speaking population per local
authority 2011
(Click to enlarge)

There's clearly a heartland consisting of Anglesey, Gwynedd, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire, commonly referred to as "Y Fro Gymraeg". The Welsh-speaking population is comfortably above 40% in each of them, but only Anglesey and Gwynedd remain majority Welsh-speaking local authorities compared to 2001. That's the first worrying development.

However, counties like Conwy, Pembrokeshire, Powys and Neath Port Talbot form a looser "hinterland" where there's a sizable minority of Welsh-speaking residents (between 15-25% of the population).

Change in % of Welsh-speakers compared
to 2001
(Click to enlarge)

Next it's worth looking at how the figures have changed compared to 2001. Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion stand out in particular, with Carmarthenshire experiencing the sharpest fall at 6.4%. A vast bulk of Welsh local authorities saw falls over the period, however the fall is more marked in "Y Fro" and the "hinterland" than elsewhere. Neath Port Talbot saw the sharpest fall in south Wales for example at 2.7%.

You could argue the figures stood up well in south east Wales and south Wales central. The only local authority that saw a rise was Monmouthshire, while numbers held up in Cardiff, Caerphilly and Rhondda Cynon Taf. Though all local authorities saw falls in those able to read, speak and write Welsh.

Number of  Welsh-speakers per
local authority 2011
(Click to enlarge)

The second key figure is the number of Welsh-speakers in physical terms. A population percentage gives you a good idea of the "density" of Welsh-speakers, but in terms of actual numbers there's a more even spread.

As you might expect, the vast majority of Welsh-speakers live in Y Fro. Carmarthenshire has the most Welsh-speakers overall, closely followed by Gwynedd. But Swansea, Rhondda Cynon Taf and Cardiff have very large Welsh-speaking communities despite being outside Y Fro. Cardiff, in fact, almost has as many Welsh-speaking residents as Anglesey.

Next, the change in Welsh-speaker numbers compared to 2001.Ceredigion and south west Wales have seen the sharpest falls. However, falls in the north east – in particular Anglesey - don't seem that pronounced.

Change in the physical number of
Welsh-speakers compared to 2001
(Click to enlarge)

When you look at the south it's a different picture. The numbers have held up well in Bridgend, RCT and Newport, while there were increases in Vale of Glamorgan, Caerphilly, Monmouthshire and Cardiff. Cardiff seeing the sharpest rise at more than 4,000.

Overall, Wales has lost just over 20,000 self-identifying Welsh-speakers since 2001. That makes Cardiff's 4,000 rise quite an achievement, rather than something to be derided.







The decline : How? & Why?

"Rural down-sizers" appear to be just as likely to be
moving from other Welsh local authorities as
from England.
(Pic : Zoopla.co.uk)

Mortality – Y Fro counties aren't only the most Welsh-speaking, but also amongst the "oldest". Based on 2012 mortality rates (6,236 per million) ~3,500 Welsh-speakers will have died in Wales each year, and ~35,000 since 2001. Clearly, there haven't been enough replacements for them. It's even worse in Carmarthenshire and Neath Port Talbot, where the percentage of people with poor health is way above the Welsh average. Logically, that would lead to more people dying younger at the top end of the demographic tree and proportionally more Welsh-speakers amongst them.

Migration patterns within Wales – Using this tool from the ONS, you can see where people moving to Welsh local authorities are coming from. In Anglesey, most inward migrants came from Gwynedd. In Ceredigion the vast, vast bulk come from Welsh local authorities. It's similar in Carmarthenshire.

It's also the opposite. For example, 1080 people moved to Cardiff from Ceredigion, Gwynedd and Carmarthenshire. How many were Welsh-speakers? The odds are quite a few. Which local authority saw the sharpest rise in the physical number of Welsh-speakers again?

A non Welsh-speaking Welsh person moving to an Y Fro county is going to have the same effect on Welsh-speaking statistics as someone moving from England. That might be an uncomfortable fact for some nationalists, but it's the truth.

Inward migration – There's a clear pattern of small numbers of people from a large number of English authorities moving to Wales. They don't look much in isolation on the viewer, but added together they do tot up to a significant number. Discounting those already here, English in-migration "tops-up" a decline in Welsh-speakers disproportionately. In addition, Carmarthenshire (especially Llanelli) has seen large numbers of eastern European migrants settling there since 2004. I'm willing to bet none of them can speak Welsh either. You can't ignore that it's a contributing factor, but it's simplistic to put all of the emphasis on this point alone.

Outward migration – What about those heading in the opposite direction? It's unclear how many Welsh-speakers there are resident in England (or I simply couldn't be bothered to find out), but there are, in many cases, at least as many Welsh people moving to England than there are incoming. The south, however, seems relatively self-contained. It's far more pronounced in Y Fro and counties like Powys, where it's perhaps easier to head east-west than north-south.

Has Blair government university expansion led to a more
transient Welsh-speaking population in their 20s?
(Pic : Austin Company)

Increased student numbers since 2001 – I actually think this is an overlooked, but key reason behind the proportional decline. I'm willing to bet a lot of the transient population are full-time students, including English students studying at Welsh universities and vice versa. Even if it's only a few thousand moving in either direction, it's enough to knock a big chunk off the Welsh-speaking population in sparsely populated counties in Y Fro and elsewhere. Even more so if they don't return.

Over-estimation of Welsh-speakers in 2001 – Maybe people then were caught up in the patriotic fervour of devolution and "Cool Cymru" and over-estimated their Welsh-speaking ability. Now the national question is settled to a certain extent, people might not be as keen to express their national identity through their ability in the language. It could also mean Welsh-learners no longer regard themselves as proficient in 2011 as they were in 2001 – probably through lack of use.

"O bydded i'r hen iaith barhau"

 If we're careful,  Welsh might have a very bright future indeed.
But the vast bulk of Welsh-speakers in numerical terms are older.
(Pic : Welsh Language Commissioner via Blog Menai)
(Click to enlarge)

There's one big glimmer of hope, but we'll have to be patient. Look at this graph from the Welsh Language Commissioner, also posted on Blog Menai.

The demography of Welsh-speakers is very heavily in favour of younger generations in practically all  local authorities. Perhaps that's due to the expansion of Welsh medium education. Perhaps Welsh-speakers are having more children or are more settled.

The drawback is that Wales is generally older in terms of sheer numbers. Migration by retirees (including within Wales itself) will have an impact, but simple demographics are the big issue here. If anglophone monoglot over 65s disappeared for whatever reason Logan's Run style, it's possible Wales would have a ~30% Welsh speaking population, Y Fro would be solidly Welsh-speaking and even places like Cardiff and Blaenau Gwent would have 20-30% of the population with some ability in Welsh.

I think the changes to the number of Welsh-speakers could be compared to an incoming tide. The first wave comes in a certain distance, then retreats. The next wave comes in even further and stronger, then retreats.

But there's still an awful lot left to do to, not to "preserve" the Welsh language, but ensure it remains a living language. The living bit is much, much more important.

End "Meta-Welsh" – Or, to put it bluntly, Welsh language activists have become so self-referential about Welsh itself, they've dropped the ball over the last 10 years. It shouldn't be reduced to something you talk about at a dinner party, a protest rally or in a seminar. Welsh shouldn't be some sort of geeky hobby for enthusiasts.

Would the future of Welsh be more secure if activists dropped placards and more of them
picked up a guitar or wrote Welsh-language novels and television/radio shows?
(Pic : ITV Wales)

If the future of Welsh is going to be constant arguments over status, "conservation", legislation and commissioners – nothing ordinary folk care about - we might as well give up now. It hasn't worked in Ireland, it won't work here.

Mainstream the use of Welsh – You should be able to buy your groceries in Pwllheli in Welsh – end of. The job of ensuring you can now rests with the Welsh Language Commissioner. There's no need to go over the top outside of Y Fro, but once a Welsh-speaking population reaches a certain level, or number, there should be an expectation that basic services would be available – and more importantly, used – in Welsh. Even if it's only a token "Derek the Weather" gesture.

"Cwl Cymraeg" – The future of Welsh lies with the Cyw crowd and 20/30-somethings, not the Dechrau Canu, Dechrau Canmol crowd. Although there are some "edgy" Welsh language artists out there, Welsh language culture as a whole gives the impression of being very conservative. Cymraeg needs a pulse. We need more contemporary Welsh language entertainment and literature to make it alive and appear like something monoglots are missing out on. It needs more slang, for example. It needs to be worth the artist's time though. Note the disagreement between Radio Cymru and musicians.


Change how Welsh is taught in English-medium (secondary) schools - Welsh has to be desirable to speak and learn, and I don't think that comes down to compulsion. I think instead of the pointless, token Welsh language GCSE Short Course, it should become like the (proposed) Scottish-style "Welsh Studies".

It should be bilingual, but actually putting it in a context, be that historical, political, cultural or sociological. The emphasis on teaching Welsh (as a second language) should be heavily weighted towards English medium primary schools, where language teaching is a bit more effective as brains develop.

It's impossible not to like this. But when Cyw's viewers get older, they'll need more
Welsh-language media that reflects modern Wales. Welsh needs to become a little bit more ballsy.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Promote the benefits of a bilingual education – This doesn't just include the obvious cognitive one of being able to speak more than one language, but employment, cultural and social opportunities. Most of the world is bilingual. Pupils attending Welsh-medium schools also learn English to native-speaker standards anyway. Secondary school pupils also learn other languages alongside Welsh and English as part of the curriculum – though both Plaid and the Conservatives have discussed introducing a third language at primary school level recently.

That little fact means it's easy to lock those who have "issues" with Welsh language education in very amusing circular arguments. I wish people would do it more often, and it makes it far easier to uncover their true motivation(s).

An Y Fro baby boom – If Welsh is going to survive as a living language, more children in the heartland need to be brought up in Welsh-speaking households, who in turn might move to other parts of Wales and top up Welsh-speaking communities there. More Welsh-speaking young people might put off elderly, anglophone white-flighters moving to rural Wales in the first place. But there's another big problem....

An Y Fro economic miracle – There are economic reasons for the decline of Welsh. With the economy of West Wales & The Valleys continuing to lag, and there being natural penalties for living in a sparsely populated area, there needs to be a reason to retain working-age people and provide them with jobs. I call this a "miracle" because that's the scale of the challenge. What industries could Y Fro specialise in? Energy? Agricultural science? It has to be more than seasonal tourist jobs.

Link planning (economic and social) and housing to the Welsh language – This doesn't necessarily mean prioritising Welsh-speakers for housing. It could simply mean more cheaper, affordable housing and the creation of a "Welsh-speaking city" somewhere in Y Fro with enough clout to pull younger people towards it. That could be Aberystwyth, it could be Bangor, it could be a planned expansion of a town like Porthmadog.

Create a model for a successful Welsh-speaking infrastructure, learn from it, then replicate it elsewhere.

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