Right to Buy ban "needs explaining"

(Pic: The Guardian)

The Communities Committee published their Stage One report on the Abolition of Right to Buy Bill yesterday (pdf). In summary, their recommendations were that:

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FMQs: City Deals, IndyWales & Rough Sleeping

It was a rather sedate edition of FMQs this afternoon (not that it's different to any other week) with today also marking Carwyn's 50^th birthday 🎉 - to the jocularity of opposition leaders.

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Right to Buy set to be abolished in Wales

(Pic : The Guardian)

The controversial "Right to Buy" scheme – a flagship policy of  Margaret Thatcher – is set to be abolished in Wales as part of a Bill formally introduced by Communities Secretary, Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside), yesterday afternoon.

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FMQs : Sepsis, Letting Fees & Sport Wales

Sometimes AMs discuss stuff that only matters to themselves or those who lobby them. Sometimes they concentrate on things that have more topical relevance – as they did today.

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Welsh Budget 2017-18

(Pic : BBC Wales)

The Welsh Government's spending plans for the next financial year were tabled in the Senedd on Tuesday by Local Government & Finance Secretary, Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West).

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Plaid's Infrastructure Commission

(Pic : Plaid Cymru)

(Owen : It's funny how things turn out. I'm sure that counts as three correct predictions in a row. As for the recent controversial episode of Question Time this sums up what happens in pretty much every episode and why I don't watch political programmes. "Don't feed the trolls.")

On Monday, the Shadow Ministers for the Economy & Infrastructure – Adam Price AM (Plaid, Carms. E & Dinefwr) and Dai Lloyd AM (Plaid, South Wales West) respectively – launched a policy paper outlining their proposal to create a National Infrastructure Commission (pdf).

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FMQs : Breakfast, Food & Cadw Merger

Another Tuesday, another FMQs and, as usual, there was plenty up for discussion.

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Law to replace stamp duty introduced

(Pic : policyexpert.co.uk)

The first piece of legislation of the Fifth Assembly was introduced on Tuesday (13^th September) by Finance & Local Government Secretary, Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West) – the snappily-titled Land Transaction Tax & Anti-avoidance of Devolved Taxes Bill.

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Fourth Assembly Review : Final Verdict

(Pic : The Guardian)

Here's a final round-up of how the Welsh Government and opposition party leaders have performed as the Fourth Assembly draws to a close.

• End of Year Report 2015
• End of Year Report 2014
• WAG End of Year Report Card 2013
• Welsh Government - End of year report (2012)

Office of First Minister; Constitutional & Legislative Affairs

• First Minister : Carwyn Jones (2011-2016)
• Counsel General : Theodore Huckle QC (2011-2016)

C+

Does Carwyn display leadership credentials? I say yes on the whole and it's hard to picture anyone else on the Labour front bench being able to replace him. Carwyn also thinks very carefully before acting – which should be considered a good trait in a political leader – but he seems to be a bit slow to move from talking about doing something to actually doing something.

I wouldn't say he's smug, but it's clear Carwyn thinks he's above the opposition leaders and finds FMQs a chore; in all honesty, you can't blame him. He finds it all too easy to bat off questions – presumably because of his background as a barrister – and he'll often find agreement with Plaid and Lib Dems on certain matters of policy. As a result he's rarely put under any pressure at all, but comes across as a bit too laid back.

The Counsel General had a more prominent role this term and racked up a 2-1 victory over the UK Attorney General after three Welsh laws were challenged in the Supreme Court. He did his job – nothing good or bad you can say about that. He could well play a key role in the argument for some sort of Welsh legal jurisdiction in the future, but AMs seem reluctant to ask him questions – Simon Thomas and Mick Antoniw aside.

Finance & Leader of the House

• Minister : Jane Hutt (2011-2016)

B-

Finance Minister is one of the duller postings in the Welsh Government, but it requires a strong hand and a cool head to deal with competing priorities. Jane might not have set the world alight in other roles down the years, but I'd say she's found her niche and that could stand her in good stead if she decides to make a leadership bid in the future. Maybe she's shown a bit too much favouritism to the NHS in her budgets, but I'd say her overall management of the nation's finances has been sound, with cautiously sensible proposals for the management of devolved taxes in the Fifth Assembly.

Considering the time and manpower constraints, the Assembly's calendar has been well-managed, with the introduction of topical individual members debates bringing more relevant discussions into the chamber. However, the weekly business statement announcements verged on pointless as Jane always has an excuse on hand not to hold a debate or support a ministerial statement - which clearly frustrated many AMs over the last five years.

Economy, Science & Transport

• Ministers : Edwina Hart (2011-2016),
• Deputy Ministers : Jeff Cuthbert (2011-2013), Ken Skates (2013-2014), Julie James (2014-2016)

B

It started very wobbly indeed, but in the end – and with evidence to back it up – it's hard to argue against Edwina Hart's stint here being anything other than a success and she's leaving the Assembly on a high.

Unemployment's down, there are some big schemes on the table on in the pipeline and the Welsh economy has been through a period of growth. The only real criticisms would be her department's failure to properly implement reforms to business rates while it's clear that some of Edwina's actions have been unnecessarily combative – the closure of Junction 41 in Port Talbot, for example.

Ken Skates' brief stint as Deputy Minister for Skills was a rare ministerial highlight as he oversaw the rapid expansion of Jobs Growth Wales, which made the decision to move him in 2014 all the stranger.

Health & Social Services

• Ministers : Lesley Griffiths (2011-2013), Mark Drakeford (2013-2016),
• Deputy Ministers : Gwenda Thomas (2011-2014), Vaughan Gething (2014-2016)

D

Health is the big area of policy failure for Labour, mainly due to service failures rather than their intent to make improvements. They've passed three significant laws on health and social services this term – Hygiene Ratings Act, Human Transplantation Act, Social Services & Wellbeing Act – but not without controversy or incident, such as the original proposals for vaping in the Public Health Bill (which ultimately failed) and the smacking ban.

I've said enough about their policy performance, so I'll focus on the ministers themselves. It was quite clear that Lesley Griffiths was out of her depth and lost control of matters at times. While Mark Drakeford brought a more considered intellectualism to the post he's hardly set the world alight either. There's a real danger that Health Minister is going to become the post nobody wants.

Although he was perhaps too slow to act on the McClelland review's recommendations on ambulance services, Vaughan Gething has, at times, shown why he's so highly thought of and it's a racing certainty he'll become a full minister in the Fifth Assembly.

Education & Skills

• Ministers : Leighton Andrews (2011-2013), Huw Lewis (2013-2016)
• Deputy Ministers : Jeff Cuthbert (2011-2013), Ken Skates (2013-2014), Julie James (2014-2016)

C+

A mixed bag though, broadly-speaking, Huw Lewis is leaving the Assembly on a political high. This area of policy hasn't perhaps got the critical attention it deserves in the Welsh media – aside from the PISA results and big changes like the Donaldson Review. It's fair to say there've been a number of big policy announcements through the Fourth Assembly, and exam results have gradually improved.

The Lib Dems can take some credit here for their Pupil Deprivation Grant – though it's probably going to be some time until the effectiveness of it is properly analysed. Money in education has been a major theme, with Labour committing to keeping schools budgets at 1% above any changes to the block grant (and it's believed they didn't keep that promise over the whole term). Meanwhile, the increasingly controversial tuition fee policy, while being well-meant, seems financially damaging in the medium to long term.

So although the raw numbers point towards improvement of sorts, there's been a bit too much knee-jerk tinkering – though the difference in attitudes between Leighton Andrews (more proactive and directly-influential) and Huw Lewis (more collaborative) was marked.

Environment, Natural Resources & Rural Affairs

• Ministers : John Griffiths (2011-2014), Alun Davies (2013-2014), Carl Sargeant (2014-2016)
• Deputy Ministers : Alun Davies (2011-2013), Rebecca Evans (2014-2016)

C+

The intentions are good but, as always with Welsh Labour, the actions weren't there in abundance. Wales' excellent record on recycling has held up, but there were a number of issues – particularly open-cast mining and fracking – where Carl Sargeant was very good at talking the talk but lacking any real bite.

The Welsh Government passed landmark legislation on planning and the environment – the latter committing Wales to meeting greenhouse gas reduction targets. Also, the intent of another "landmark" law on future generations/sustainable development was welcomed, but the implementation was a damp squib.

On rural affairs, there were several major developments with the first Deputy Minister, Alun Davies, picking a fight with the Supreme Court over agricultural wages, forcing a law through the Assembly using emergency legislation powers; a fight he ultimately won. Then he finally oversaw action on stray horses – which has been a particular problem in south west Wales – though again he used emergency powers to see the law though. His stint in the job – which polarised the farming community – came to a rather ignominious end.

His replacement, Rebecca Evans – one of the quietly impressive performers this term - faced with her own immediate problems, particularly a crisis in milk prices which prompted a very quick and efficient review of the dairy sector. It come up with a number of ideas such as a new leadership board and possible milk processing facility in south west Wales.

Local Government, Communities, Housing & Regeneration

• Ministers : Carl Sargeant (2011-2014), Huw Lewis (2013), Lesley Griffiths (2013-2016), Jeff Cuthbert (2013-2014), Leighton Andrews (2014-2016)
• Deputy Ministers : Vaughan Gething (2013-2014)

C+

The overarching issue here has been local government reorganisation as facilitated by the Williams Commission. As mentioned earlier this week, what the whole process has failed to do is properly determine what local government is and what is should be responsible for. The map should've been an after thought.

This group of ministers also oversaw one of the worst scandals of the term in the form of RIFW, though they made up for that somewhat with the less ambitious replacement scheme, Vibrant & Viable Places.

For the first time in post-devolution Wales a minister was given specific responsibility to address high levels of relative poverty, and to date – in the absence of any meaningful level to make an impact, like the benefits system – little progress has been made.

However, several major laws relating to housing have been passed, one of which makes major changes to homelessness provision, while the other outlines significant reforms to the private rental market. Whether there are enough houses being built in the first place is another matter. Also, Labour kept one of their key 2011 manifesto pledges by recruiting at least 500 extra PCSOs.

Culture, Heritage, Welsh Language & Sport

• Ministers & Deputy Ministers : Huw Lewis (2011-2013), John Griffiths (2013-2014), Carwyn Jones (2013-2016), Ken Skates (2014-2016)

C

Another area where, while not really doing anything wrong, the Welsh Government probably could've done more. There's provisional evidence that 2012 London Olympics have had a positive knock-on impact on sports participation, but whether that lasts without proper funding is up for debate. It's a similar situation with the arts in Wales; as it's seen as "low hanging fruit" by local authorities many arts schemes, particularly music, have been victims of cuts.

Elsewhere, concerns have been raised about Wales' place in the new BBC Charter and future of public service broadcasting – particularly the long-term future of S4C – as the decline in the Welsh print media continues. A lot's been said but, as it typical, very little has happened with the Welsh Government appearing toothless as broadcasting  powers are non-devolved.

One area where they've bared their teeth this term is heritage, with the passing of the Historic Environment Act being an attempt to afford more protection to monuments and historic buildings – though perhaps not going as far as it should've, with ministers wimping out of a merger between Cadw and the Royal Commission on Ancient Monuments.

The position of the Welsh language has been awkward – particularly since the 2011 census findings, as well as the decision by the First Minister to take direct responsibility for Welsh language policy in 2013. Nevertheless, Welsh was made an official language in the National Assembly (with equal status to English) for the first time, while a (large and perhaps pedantic) number of standards for Welsh in public services were introduced.

Opposition Leaders

Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central)

B- personally; B- party

It's been a clear period of personal and professional growth, and despite some suspect moments of his leadership, Andrew took to the role of Leader of the Opposition pretty well and can be relatively pleased with his performance this term. He isn't perfect, but he does occasionally rile the First Minister – though it's sometimes hard to tell whether he's a mouthpiece for the UK Government or not.

The Tories have gone big on health and have, in some parts of Wales, managed to sew some doubts in people's minds on certain aspects – though it all seems a little repetitive. Following the Wales Bill(s) and future devolution of income tax they can, to a certain degree, say they are a pro-devolution party, though the EU referendum perhaps threatens to cause divisions. After a good result at the 2015 Westminster election, both Andrew himself and his party have reason to be upbeat going into the Assembly election....that still doesn't mean Andrew's coming out of it as First Minister.

Leanne Wood (Plaid, South Wales Central)

B+ personally; C+ party

This term has seen Leanne Wood rise from being part of the fringe of Plaid's backbenches to one of the more well-known politicians in Wales. At a personal level that's an incredible achievement. Leanne has always come across as down to earth, if a little self-righteous, so I don't believe there's any overconfidence there and she has every reason to believe in herself considering her political journey. The real danger is if the rest of her party believe their own hype. That's only going to end in tears.

Plaid haven't set the world alight over the last five years. Despite worthy attempts to professionalise their front bench, the positive reforms have occurred behind the scenes with the development of a strong "Brand Plaid". I'll come back to this in more detail later on in the campaign, but the good news is that Plaid haven't gone backwards and have stopped the rot from 2011. Their problem is a lack of demonstrable forward momentum.

Kirsty Williams (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor)

A personally; B party

Kirsty Williams is, without doubt, an excellent AM and excellent party leader. She managed to draw some significant concessions from the Welsh Government and the Lib Dems have passed two laws, including the Nurse Staffing Levels Act. That should count as a real triumph considering Labour's reluctance to take on board any suggestion on health and it's something Lib Dem activists can take to voters.

The party do genuinely punch above their weight – I'm tired of saying that, but it's the truth – and they can be proud of their record in the Fourth Assembly. Hand on heart I say that none of the Lib Dems AMs deserve to be on the end of a kicking in a few weeks time, but it's coming and I doubt I'll be the only one wincing when steel-toe boot makes contact with Lib Dem backside.

Overall Verdict

If the big theme of next term will be the devolution of taxes, the big theme this term was the Assembly's new law-making powers following the 2011 referendum. By and large, AMs and Assembly staff have proven they're more than capable of handling those powers.

The laws themselves, however, have been a mixed bag, with some genuinely groundbreaking legislation introduced alongside some very vague or downright useless laws which will probably be repealed sooner rather than later – the Future Generations Act somes to mind. I would prefer a focus on quality over quantity of legislation next term; it's better to have 10-12 good laws than the 30 or so glib laws we've seen over the past five years.

Although the opposition have certainly caused problems for Labour this term, their fractured and disunited nature - mainly due to big ideological differences - has given Labour an easy ride. That looks set to continue in the Fifth Assembly. Until Labour's "right to rule" is properly challenged (as it was, but for the wrong reasons on Wednesday), the Assembly's stuck in a rut. Maybe, for the good of the country and the future of democracy in Wales, the main opposition parties will have to put some of their differences aside and work together on some aspects.

Lack of ambition, micromanagement, laziness, cronyism – Welsh Labour have them all in spades and displayed them all this term.

Their rule of Wales over the last five years - while not being a complete catastrophe, more a cosy marriage that neither partner has the guts to call off – can be summed up as, "not good enough". The problem for the rest of us - unless you actually support Labour - is that we seem depressingly comfortable with "not good enough."


Tomorrow, I'm going to "do something nice" (or perhaps not so nice) and conclude my look back at the Fourth Assembly by handing out my end of term "awards".

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Live From Angel Street - January Communities Committee

The next webcast Bridgend Council (BCBC) meeting I'm going to focus on is the Community, Environment & Leisure Scrutiny Committee, held on Wednesday (27^th January) – you can watch it he....

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Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap V : The Inquiry

(Pic : BBC Wales)

Yesterday, the Public Accounts Committee published their forensic report into the failed Regeneration Investment Fund for Wales (RIFW)....and it makes really, really grim reading for the Welsh Government (pdf).

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Minister updates Senedd on refugee response

(Pic : Al-Jazeera)

The Syrian refugee crisis has slipped off the front pages in the last fortnight due to Russian military intervention in the conflict, the latest catastrophic brain fart from the US Air Force and party conference season.

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Downloading (22% - 2 years left)....

With the Wales Audit Office recently giving Superfast Cymru a thumbs up,
the minister in charge provided an update to AMs on progress to date.
(Pic : recombu.com)

The Superfast Cymru scheme is a £425million partnership between BT and the Welsh Government which aims to provide high-speed broadband (generally defined as somewhere between 20-50 Megabits/second) to every home and business in Wales – particularly those in hard to reach areas.

Good internet connections have become an everyday necessity regardless of where you live, while for rural businesses in particular – who often endure poor mobile and internet connections - it's essential, especially as farming payments have increasingly moved to online-only management (see also : The Green, Green Glas of Home).

In general terms, the scheme focuses on upgrading, or installing new, green BT roadside cabinets with fibre optics connections to telephone exchanges. Fibre optic cables enable much faster download speeds and can carry more information as signals are sent as pulses of light. They're also less susceptible to environmental damage.

Yesterday, Deputy Minster for Skills & Technology, Julie James (Lab, Swansea West) updated the National Assembly on progress being made by the programme.

The Deputy Minister started by saying the scheme meant Wales was moving into a position where every business and home has access to superfast broadband, as outlined in the Programme for Government (clip) - the aim of the scheme being to bring high-speed broadband to areas where the market wouldn't go. With it crucial to becoming a "truly digital nation", a big push is needed to reach the last 3-4% of premises. This includes using mobile technology like 4G, and a new scheme based on this will be launched later this year.

Without intervention, it's said 480,000 premises wouldn't have access to superfast broadband. With 79% of Welsh homes and businesses having access so far, Wales is ahead of the EU average. The scheme has created 250 jobs and provided a number of apprenticeships and work experience placements, while the Wales Audit Office (WAO) have said Superfast Cymru is making "reasonable progress".

The Superfast Cymru website will be revamped to give residents more certainty on when they would be connected. Plus, the contract has been extended to June 2017, with additional public funding of of £19million, in order to target an extra ~45,000 premises (and specifically 2,500 businesses). Swansea is also being used by BT as a testbed for 500Mbits/second ultra-fast broadband (G. fast).

There was a need to ensure people take up superfast broadband. So far, 22% of customers have taken it up within a year of it being available - the highest take-up rate in the UK. The target is for 50% take-up by 2024. Claw back agreements mean that once the scheme breaks even, the Welsh Government get some extra money back.

Shadow Economy Minister, William Graham (Con, South Wales East), said significant problems remain – mentioning issues on Deeside enterprise zone specifically (clip) - though the project demonstrates effective public-private cooperation. He hoped there was no complacency as Wales is likely to be ahead of other countries for only a short period of time, with a number of "not spots" remaining, including in around Cardiff, citing an example of a business leasing a line for broadband at a cost of £20,000.

The Deputy Minister said Wales was second only to Cornwall in take-up though roll-out has been faster than the rest of the UK. She acknowledged difficulties, suggesting alternative technologies could address problems on Deeside. Superfast Cymru only covers areas which are commercially unviable, and it won't be until the end of the programme that those involved will be able to see if something can be done for "not spots" in commercially viable areas like Cardiff.

Plaid Cymru economy spokesperson, Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid, Ynys Môn), said it was right to aim for universal roll-out to ease the transition into a digital economy (clip). He suggests his constituents would be surprised by the WAO's positive assessment as they, and other rural areas, wait for upgrades. He asked : Could 4G services be brought into Superfast Cymru instead of relying on mobile companies? Whether the extension to 2017 includes the whole scheme or just the 45,000 additional premises? We should aim for greater take-up than 50%, but is there a danger Wales could lag behind once faster broadband speed benchmarks are set?

The Deputy Minister said the additional premises wouldn't disrupt other parts of the programme. 4G is being looked at, as well as other technologies, to produce superfast speeds. She accepted the point on take-up, but Wales was doing well compared to other countries.

David Rees AM (Lab, Aberavon) stressed the importance of delivering broadband to businesses, with particular concerns over business parks in his area (clip), especially those which are surrounded by residential areas eligible for Superfast Cymru but are themselves being left out. He asked what speeds people can expect and whether the new infrastructure can deliver 500Mbit/s in the future? Also, which ISPs provide superfast broadband to ensure businesses have a choice?

The Deputy Minister explained the business park situation by saying that because EU funds are being used, a "market failure" has to be proven to justify state intervention, so that's why business parks are last in the queue not first. On speeds, there's a floor of 28Mbit/s but businesses can pay extra for faster speeds. Superfast Cymru is being delivered as wholesale with individual ISPs providing services (in the same way as energy companies).

It's not just rural areas suffering from poor broadband speeds. Some parts of Cardiff just a
stone's throw from the Assembly are "not spots" but are ineligible for Superfast Cymru.
(Pic : The Guardian)

Eluned Parrott AM (Lib Dem, South Wales Central) said the programme was a lot like "trying to hit a moving target" as things change quickly and it needs to be future-proofed (clip). Eluned suggested that mobile technology might not be suitable due to poor mobile coverage in parts of Wales, as well as planning issues surrounding mobile phone masts. She added that parts of Cardiff, including her own regional office in Roath, have connection issues meaning her staff are "devastated" that they can't watch her on Senedd TV. One other issue raised was the fact many new-build estates aren't covered by Superfast Cymru because despite the lines being installed, BT's broadband department haven't been told and don't realise the new homes exist.

Julie said future-proofing was one of the reasons for the claw back agreement so BT and the Welsh Government can keep re-investing. Following meetings with mobile operators, she expects widespread 4G coverage "within the next couple of years", though planning issues are very complicated and need discussions with the UK Government. She finished by saying that BT aren't the only company rolling out infrastructure improvements as there are other commercial operators – like Virgin Media - doing so too.

Russell George AM (Con, Montgomery) asked two questions (clip) : why information on specific premises falling outside the scope of Superfast Cymru wasn't available? And what the budget was to market superfast broadband? Julie explained that information was based on postcodes, not individual addresses, and £1.5million was available for marketing.

Elin Jones AM (Plaid, Ceredigion) said "no other issue causes as much frustration in Ceredigion" than poor broadband (clip). She was pleased the website was being updated, but wanted to know if premises in her constituency would be updated by 2016, or whether they would be part of the additional 45,000 premises set to be upgraded by 2017?

The Deputy Minister said 41.35% of premises have been completed in Ceredigion, so BT weren't even halfway yet. The website would be updated to include accurate information based on distance from cabinets.

As a former Deputy Minister for Skills & Technology, Jeff Cuthbert AM (Lab, Caerphilly) said he was familiar with the problems (clip), such as trying to locate cabinets in urban areas. He asked for confirmation that "disadvantaged communities aren't overlooked" by the scheme?

Julie said a successor to the Communities 2.0 programme is up and running, and the Welsh Government were working to ensure no communities are left out.

Kirsty Williams AM (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor), wanted to ensure the information (clip) on the website is "useful" as she's struggled to get answers on from BT on behalf of constituents, but in particular Dan yr Ogof Showcaves, who developed an app on the presumption that broadband would be available this year, but will be delayed until 2016. She also said cabinet upgrades had led to poorer internet speeds in some areas.

The Deputy Minister pledged to look into problems as a worse performance was certainly not intended. She agreed on the need for useful information, and as the scheme progresses it's becoming easier to provide information based on distance from a cabinet. Julie added that BT sometimes had to deal with situations beyond their control and can't always give accurate timescales for broadband upgrades. However, she's asked BT to be more specific when telling the public about difficulties they're having (i.e planning delays).

Janet Finch-Saunders AM (Con, Aberconwy) asked what steps were being taken to consult with the community, citing an example where residents in Dolwyddelan (clip) were quoted £2,000 by BT to move a new cabinet to another location as it was close to community planters and chapel gates. The Deputy Minister said she couldn't comment on individual cases.

Finally, Mark Isherwood AM (Con, North Wales) asked (clip) about superfast broadband for rural schools and whether rural schools are a priority, to which the Deputy Minister said primary schools aren't part of Superfast Cymru but a separate programme.

Will widespread instrastructure upgrades lead to better offers for consumers?
(Pic : recombu.com)

Superfast Cymru isn't without critics – in particular the Pirate Party (Pirate Party : Hoising the Jolly Roger above Wales), who've criticised the technology and high prices of superfast services.

Broadly-speaking I'd say it's a good idea, though I'd share concerns over whether this will be outdated 10-15 years down the line when, presumably, G.fast becomes the norm. The clawback agreement is, therefore, a sensible part of the scheme.

The issue is take-up. 22% doesn't sound that impressive on the face of it (though I was actually surprised it's that high). Households and businesses have to actually sign up to the superfast (often advertised as "fibre") services which come at a premium, sometimes being three times more expensive than cable broadband, the latter of which might come free with a subscription media package.

Hopefully once the infrastructure is in place the ISP subscription costs will come down, and I'm going to presume cost and usage limits are currently the biggest barrier to take-up.

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Poverty Inquiry : Poverty & Inequality

The modern image of poverty is something like the above, but it should also include
low-paid care workers, part-time shop assistants and people priced out of housing.
(Pic : Swansea Sound)

Earlier this week, the Assembly's Communities & Local Government Committee launched the first report of a four-part inquiry into poverty in Wales (pdf) - and a 10-page summary (pdf). Each strand of the inquiry has its own terms of reference, and this first report focuses on how poverty is measured, defined and generally dealt with at a national level.

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Westminster 2015 : The BBC Challengers Debate

(Pic : The Mirror)

The second of the main TV debates of Election 2015 was held last night, this time consisting of the opposition party leaders – so no David Cameron bwark-bwark-bwark-bwaaaark or Nick Clegg, which damaged the legitimacy a little bit.

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Westminster 2015 : The Key Issues in Wales

What are likely to be the main issues for Welsh voters?
(Pic : Click on Wales)

The first debate's out of the way, I've given my verdict on the Coalition and the manifestos are going to be released over the next few weeks (I'll look at them in more detail once their all out, though UKIP are dragging their heels by the looks of it) - which means it's time to focus on some of the issues that might be fought over in Wales.

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Westminster 2015 : The ITV Leaders Debate

The big debate has been held, and here's a run down of how the leaders did.
(Pic : ITV)

I'll only count this and the BBC opposition debate on on 16^th April as "debates" because they're....actual debates. I'm not going to count the Question Time and Daily Politics specials or the interviews. I don't know if there are Wales-only debates planned over the next few weeks (as 2010), but if there are I'll cover them too.

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Gissa Job : Assisting Young People Into Work

An Assembly committee has investigated the barriers facing young people as they enter the
world of work, as well as assessing Welsh Government actions to reduce youth unemployment.
(Pic : The Guardian)

Another tome, I'm afraid. All part of the service.

Last week, the Enterprise & Business Committee published their report into how young people find  work (pdf). This is particularly important as quoted statistics underline how hard young people have been hit by the recession - up to 18% of 18-24 year olds were unemployed in 2014 compared to just 4.4% of 35-49 year olds.

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Bridgend's Deprivation Mapped

The Caerau Park and Tudor estates are placed near the top of the most
relatively deprived areas in Wales. What about the rest of the county?
(Pic : zoopla.com)

Last week, the latest figures from the triennial Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) were released by the Welsh Government and Office of National Statistics. Deprivation itself is defined, statistically, as a "lack of access to opportunities or resources".

The WIMD collects data from each of Wales' 1,909 Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) – there's roughly one for every 1,000-1,500 people – and compares them to each other, giving policy makers and the general public an idea how relatively deprived neighbourhoods are compared to the rest of Wales (not the rest of the local authority).

So it's important to point out from the start that ranking lowly doesn't mean a community is "affluent" and it doesn't measure precisely how deprived a community is – only how deprived a community is compared to every other community in Wales.

The WIMD has an overall ranking, but it also has 8 separate types of deprivation each LSOA is measured against, with some indicators weighing more heavily in the final ranking than others :

• Income – Proportions of people with an income below a certain level and claiming income-based benefits and tax credits.
• Employment – A general lack of employment, based on claims for out-of-work benefits.
• Health – Lack of good health, including : long-term disabilities, low birth weights, cancer incidences and death rates.
• Education – Numbers of people with no qualifications, truancy levels, university admissions and GCSE pass rates.
• Access to Services – The ability to access everyday services essential for day-to-day living (food, GP appointments, after school clubs), and the travel times to reach such services.
• Community Safety – Overall crime levels, based on police and fire service statistics.
• Physical Environment – Proximity to big polluters, flood risk and air quality.
• Housing – Lack of adequate housing, including overcrowding and no access to central heating.

In terms of the all-Wales figures, St James' in Caerphilly is now ranked as the most relatively deprived community in Wales, though many of the names towards the top are all too familiar – Rhyl West, Splott, Queensway 1 in Wrexham (Caia Park), Twyn Carno (Fochriw, I think), Penydarren 1 (Galon Uchaf area of Merthyr) and Caerau 1 in Bridgend (Caerau Park and Tudor Estates).

With the number crunching done, it's worth taking a look at the picture in Bridgend in some more detail.

Overall Ranking & Changes Compared to 2011

(Click to enlarge)

The 2014 listings aren't really all that different to those in 2011.

The areas you would expect to be more deprived were, including : Caerau, Morfa ward (which includes Wildmill), Bettws, and at a more local level the Brackla Meadows estate, Bryntirion (the area around the Labour club), the Marlas estate in North Cornelly and the Queens Avenue area of Sarn.

As you would also expect, the valleys are relatively more deprived than the coastal/Vale areas, and the suburbs of Bridgend (including Litchard, Broadlands and the Coity end of Brackla), as well as Porthcawl, come out of it rather well.

In terms of how the rankings have changed since 2011, very few areas have dramatically become relatively less deprived than they were, though Sarn 2 (the southern half of the village) fell the most places along with the Hendre area of Pencoed, Nottage in Porthcawl and Cornelly 2 (South Cornelly and Kenfig village). It looks like – despite their overall poor ranking – levels of deprivation in Caerau, Bettws and Morfa have stalled or have even improved slightly compared to the rest of Wales.

In terms of areas which have moved up the rankings, then Brackla comes off particularly badly, especially Brackla 1 (the area around Tremains Primary) and Brackla 4 (Priory Oak, Trem-y-Mor). All Garw Valley wards have slipped – and weren't in a great position in the first place – but it's Pyle 1 (a large chunk of Kenfig Hill) and Pendre – Carwyn Jones' old council ward – which have risen the sharpest in the rankings compared to 2011.

Income & Employment

(Click to enlarge)

These are perhaps two of the more important measures of deprivation as low incomes and lack of high quality employment will limit opportunities by themselves.

In terms of income, the picture perhaps isn't quite as bad as many would believe. Even in parts of the valleys – especially Pontycymer, Maesteg, Nantyfyllon (Caerau 5), Ynysawdre and Bryncethin – incomes are near enough in the middle compared to the rest of Wales, or even slightly exceeding this. These areas have lots of cheap housing and might be attractive for younger working families priced out of other areas, while Maesteg has always had a settled middle class.

Unsurprisingly, Porthcawl and the villages and suburbs of Bridgend and Pencoed do well. You need to remember though that Welsh income levels aren't great compared to the UK anyway.

With employment, however, the differences are more stark, with pronounced problems in the valleys and urban centres (Morfa, Pyle, Porthcawl East & West Central) as you might expect – Caerau 1 ranks as the 4^th most deprived area in terms of employment in the whole of Wales. Bridgend doesn't do too great overall, but clearly employment opportunities are much better south of the M4 and around Pencoed than elsewhere in the county.

Health & Education

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There are five big pockets of areas where people are more deprived in terms of health compared to the rest of Wales – Caerau & Maesteg, Nantymoel, the central Garw Valley (Bettws, Llangeinor, Ynysawdre), North Cornelly & Pyle and the big estates in and around Bridgend town centre (Wildmill, Brackla Meadows, Ystrad Fawr). Again, this shouldn't be a surprise.

As you might expect the areas with good health are Broadlands, Laleston, Litchard and Brackla. These areas are not only generally wealthier than the average, but some areas - like Brackla - are generally younger than the rest of the county.

The north-south split is starker in education than any other measure. Pretty much all of the areas with low-ranking wards in terms of educational deprivation are located in and around Porthcawl, Pencoed and Bridgend, while the valleys have numerous areas that rank in the top 20% most deprived in Wales. The M4 almost matches the boundary perfectly as even Cornelly and Pyle fit in "the north".

That doesn't mean everywhere south of the M4 is doing well (Wildmill & Brackla Meadows) or that everywhere north of the M4 is doing badly (Llangynwyd & Aberkenfig).

Access to Services & Community Safety

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Access to services is as much an infrastructure problem as one of the facilities being in close proximity. Blaengarw and Nantymoel have quite a few shops and services close at hand, ditto the upper Llynfi valley, so these areas do well. More rural areas like Cefn Cribwr and Coychurch, as well as "overheated" areas like Broadlands, will do badly. If you're close to a town centre you're going to rank well on this, so it doesn't really tell us much.

Community safety doesn't really tell us much either, as the closer you are to a town centre, the more crime will be committed. This means urban wards like Morfa and Porthcawl West & East Central will score worse than leafy suburbs like Broadlands, Litchard, Penyfai and Newton.

Caerau, Aberkenfig and Bettws don't really count as either so their poor scores on community safety probably indicate problems other than population density - presumably high levels of anti-social behavior.

Environment & Housing

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You would expect areas close to Bridgend and Maesteg town centres to suffer from pollution problems, but there's a strip of particularly poor-scoring areas stretching from Aberkenfig to Pencoed. I think the culprits are the M4, traffic problems caused by the awkward road layout around Bryncethin, Tondu and Sarn, the Brynmenyn industrial estate and the fact the three main tributaries of the River Ogmore confluence in this area, which is prone to floods.

Ogmore Vale stands out and I have absolutely no idea why other than the polluting industries – like car scrappage and recycling firms - on the Penllwyngwent industrial estate.

On the flipside, you would expect rural wards and Porthcawl – with its seafront and access to the sand dunes - to score well, so no real surprise there.

Housing is the category where Bridgend county on a whole does very well compared to the rest of Wales, so this is clearly one of Bridgend's core strengths. It's probably because large amounts of housing have been built since the 1970s, like Brackla, or more recently, like Broadlands and Tondu, meaning they're often of a higher spec than the terraced houses of old. It's generally the areas where Edwardian and Victorian terraced houses are the only option – like the Garw Valley, Morfa 1 & 3 and Oldcastle 1 (the area around Nolton Street and Cowbridge Road) – which score poorly.

What can we learn from WIMD 2014?

Is enough being done in Bridgend's relatively deprived neighbourhoods?
(Pic : Wildmill Communities First)

Things haven't changed dramatically – As I've said, the areas of Bridgend you would've expected to rank towards the top and bottom have done so. Although these figures are relative, it's hard to tell if Welsh Government and local authority schemes like Communities First are really targeting the core issues that result in higher deprivation : unemployment, poor education and low incomes.

A better environment doesn't mean better life chances – The Bridgend valleys boast some of the finest scenery in south Wales, and since the end of mining, the environment of these areas has improved. The people there are still broadly worse off than those living in and around the M4 though. It makes you wonder if "sustainable development" is really going to improve people's well being or not, and whether local communities are being assisted to make the most of the natural environment.

Sarn and Pencoed are on the up; Brackla and Pendre are on the way down – Again, you have to remember that these figures are relative, but what's clear is that Sarn and Pencoed are becoming relatively less deprived compared to the surrounding areas, while Brackla and Pendre are starting to slip. Brackla is also, arguably, the most diverse council ward in Bridgend, as you can go from some of Wales' most grinding deprivation to some of its swankiest postcodes in a 20 minute walk.

Something needs to be done with "the usual suspects" – Marlas, Caerau, Bettws, Wildmill, Brackla Meadows - yet again they're mentioned for the wrong reasons. I could probably write fifty blogs on the state of Bridgend, but the question remains - what can be done to turn these areas around? With regard Caerau, in the last fortnight I mentioned there were plans for a holiday resort in the Afan Valley, which might generate much needed employment in the area and make use of Caerau's strengths – but those plans have stalled. Valleys 2 Coast had/have plans for housing renewal programmes in Wildmill (pdf) and Careau Park (pdf) too, but again presumably nothing will happen without the funding. New houses won't necessarily solve problems relating to crime, unemployment and low incomes either.

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National Assembly debates veterans support

People who leave the armed forces after active service are sometimes at greater risk of
developing mental illnesses, falling foul of the criminal justice system and homelessness.
(Pic : UK Government)

On Tuesday, the National Assembly debated Welsh Government support for armed forces personnel, which coincided with Armistice Day.

Public Services Minister, Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda), started by underlining the importance of 2014 due to the 100^th anniversary of the start of World War One and the 70^th anniversary of the D-Day landings. He said it was also important to remember veterans of more recent conflicts : Falklands, the Balkans, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Each local authority has signed a community covenant and has appointed a designated armed forces champion. In terms of what the Welsh Government are doing, Leighton said Veterans NHS Wales was the only national veterans' service of its kind in the UK, and veterans were satisfied with the service they received.

New guidelines will ensure veterans have a right to housing advice, and this will be backed by £2million for those leaving the armed forces. In addition, council tax reductions were introduced in April 2013, and these don't include veterans' benefits when means-testing. Leighton also said veterans were a priority group for the all-Wales re-offending prevention scheme, and that future support for veterans will need to take reservists into account, as UK Government reforms will mean reservists will have a more front line role.

Mark Isherwood AM (Con, North Wales), said it was "good news" the the UK government accepted part of British Legion's manifesto where spouses will be able to keep military pensions for life even if they have a new partner. Mark welcomed the work of both governments in signing up all 22 local authorities to the military covenant.

However, he said there was a need to protect real-terms funding for health services for ex-service personnel, and few veterans were aware of the services. Mark also highlighted the importance of peer mentoring of ex-services personnel, as post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) can be complex and might require residential treatment. Mark was concerned that the Welsh Government didn't support residential-based services.

Peter Black AM (Lib Dem, South Wales West) said debates like this were, "an opportunity to acknowledge the contribution of armed forces". The Welsh Lib Dems would prefer, what he describes as, a "seemless service" for veterans with mental health issues caused by active service.

He said helplines and websites were not always the best way to deal with such problems, and the Welsh Government weren't doing enough to address mental health issues, with serious treatment and diagnostic delays. Peter also made the important point that PTSD of this sort isn't just confined to the armed forces, but applies to the emergency services.

Lindsay Whittle AM (Plaid, South Wales East) described his 5 day stint in Afghanistan, saying that when he was waiting to leave Kabul, all service personnel had in terms of readjustment to demobilisation was a 10 minute video.

He said veterans are more likely to face homelessness, fall foul of the criminal justice system and suffer  mental health problems. As many of the services often have to be sought out by the person themselves (self-referral), Lindsay believes this meant many "slip through the net". He argued that as so much money was spent on training recruits for combat, similar resources should be available for readjustment.

Lindsay criticised the Ministry of Defence, saying they had a "duty of care" to veterans, and they should stop expecting the "overstretched" Welsh NHS to pick up the tab.

Julie Morgan AM (Lab, Cardiff North), said a new British Legion drop-in centre had over 1,000 contacts in the short time it's been set up, and she was impressed by the range of help offered, and the fact it was easily accessible. She raised concerns about people leaving the armed forces before their minimum service requirements (usually 4 years), as they're not always able to access the same levels of support.

Jeff Cuthbert AM (Lab, Caerphilly) said that as the last British troops were being withdrawn from Afghanistan, there's a more critical need to look at veterans' support; even if defence policy isn't devolved, aftercare is. He believes the Welsh Government should continue to report on their package of support annually.

He raised the issue of finding veterans employment after they've left the services, as they're often young, have transferable skills, and can show teamwork and communication skills. He would, therefore, also like updates on re-employing veterans and the training they receive.

The motion noting the Welsh Government's support for armed forces personnel and calling for ongoing support was unanimously passed.

Policy Responses

There've been two policy announcements from Welsh parties to coincide with Remembrance events.

Firstly, outgoing Plaid Cymru MP, Elfyn Llwyd, launched the party's own set of commitments to helping the estimated 250,000 veterans living in Wales. Their proposals include special Veterans' Courts to deal with criminal justice cases involving veterans, ensuring people leaving the forces have access to information on housing, health and employment and an audit of the numbers of ex-forces people in prison.

Though after what's happening in Scotland, political parties should be very careful about calling something a "vow".

Secondly, the Welsh Conservatives debated their own proposal for an Armed Forces Commissioner yesterday. The Commissioner would be tasked with holding public bodies to account to ensure they live up to their commitments under the military covenant.

The Welsh Conservatives have also long supported an Armed Forces Card, which would provide concessionary or free services, or bump them up waiting lists.

Soldiers are for life, not just for Remembrance Day

The biggest mark of respect we can pay members of the services is
ensuring they're only put in harm's way for the right reasons.
(Pic : Getty Images via Financial Times)

I'm glad the Assembly discuss things like this, but as someone with a strong military pedigree - on both sides of my family - even I feel there's a sentimentality about veterans and remembrance that's bordering on a complex.

Although it was inevitable it was going to go into overdrive this year (and will again next year and in 2018), it's become noticeably stronger over the last decade, and I think it's collective guilt.

Large numbers of us feel guilty about Iraq (perhaps other wars too) – some of us didn't do enough to stop it, others backed it when they shouldn't have, others – like the Labour Party – are forever stained by it. By questioning it we think we're "letting veterans down", so we overcompensate by excessive parades, commemoration and glorification of a modern toy soldier.

That's all very solemn and respectful, but it doesn't address the bigger issues.

First of all, let's dispel the myth that the modern UK military are "defending the country", because they're not. That's rarely their job anymore. The imminent dangers the UK face are severe weather, flooding and disruption to energy supplies, not a foreign military power.
What the military actually do is implement the forceful side of the UK's foreign policy, whilst also playing a role in international development, counter-terrorism abroad and policing. They're also a de facto further education college for many kids who are otherwise hard to reach, and are amongst the biggest purchasers of goods and services in the public sector.

It's never wrong to question defence or foreign policy, or question whether it's right to send troops into various situations. Doing so doesn't do anything to take away any sacrifices service personnel make, and it might prevent it happening in the first place, which is more respectful than seeing them as disposable heroes.

But we don't force tens of thousands of teenage boys to their deaths anymore and the modern military is highly-skilled, highly-trained and – most importantly of all – voluntary. That's despite it sometimes being an employer of last resort for those who can't find jobs elsewhere, or need the discipline and camaraderie a military career often provides.

In terms of dangerous jobs, you're more likely to be killed or seriously injured on a farm or fishing boat than in the military; while a significant proportion of service personnel will be killed on the roads compared to active service.

Lindsay Whittle hit the nail on the head. Defence isn't devolved. It's the Ministry of Defence and UK Government who should clear up the problems their little sojourns abroad leave the men and women they so actively ask to serve their interests. Or, at the very least, they should make sure the Welsh Government have everything they need to do the job they've largely abandoned.

That's not to understate the mark serving in the armed forces leaves on individuals. The adjustment to civilian life can be incredibly difficult for some, especially if you're used to regimented routines and having everything you need provided for you.

Outside the military, the only other place you get that is prison.

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