The Challenge
The economic difference between the lowland east Wales and the highland west Wales is stark. In the latest figures, East Wales (Cardiff & Vale, E Gwent, Powys and NE Wales) had a GVA per capita that was 91.4% of the UK average. In contrast West Wales & the Valleys was just 62.8%. So while there are clear challenges in catching up with the rest of the UK, we have to remember there's a huge chasm within Wales that needs to be bridged to ensure an equal spread of prosperity.
One of the main reasons for this - in my opinion - is because of the sparsity of population in rural Mid Wales and its lack of connections with the surrounding areas. In a national context, the lack of adequate connections between major centres of the north and north west with the M4 corridor and Deeside reduces social mobility, whilst increasing the gap between the wealthy east and the stunted west. Also, yes from a nationalist perspective it does hinder the "unity" of Wales.
The Welsh rail network has often been described as "extractive". After several line closures, what we were left with were three networks. A south and south west Wales one. A mid Wales one linking Aberystwyth and Pwllheli to Shewsbury and Birmingham (as well as the Heart of Wales line). And the North Wales network - linked heavily to Manchester. All lines head east, and are joined by the Marches Line which acts as a "spine". It wasn't always like this though. There was a time when you could travel by rail between Cardiff and Aberystwyth with no problems and even from Swansea to Wrexham without spending much time in England.
The Current Situation
The Marches Line between Newport and Chester is the de-facto "north south" mainline for Wales. Indeed there are direct services between Cardiff and Holyhead – taking a torturous 4 or 5 hours to complete and not linking sufficiently with the major centre in north Wales – Wrexham. I don't think there's any reason to change its role. Indeed improved services via Wrexham are forthcoming once various improvements are made to track between Wrexham and Chester. The Marches Line should still be the "main" north-south line.
It's central and north west Wales that needs the links to the south. Aberystwyth has no direct rail service to Cardiff, and subsequently neither does Machynlleth, Porthmadog, Pwllheli, Newtown or Welshpool. It's perfectly possible to do this via Shrewsbury, but it would likely be a typically torturous 4 hour journey.
This is a huge swathe of Wales "cut off" from its more prosperous parts and its seat of government. As said before, in my opinion, the lack of major centres in rural parts of Wales is one reason why it's being held back economically. I believe that there are certain towns that could benefit from planned expansion - focusing on retaining young people in particular, and ensuring that in many communities Welsh can remain a living language. If we want the jobs, the services and the investment that rural parts of Wales are crying out for, they're going to need improved links with each other and with "East Wales".
A Proposal for North-South Rail
Back in 2008, community organisation Ein Blaenau put forward a proposal for a north-south rail link (more on that at Prof. Dylan Jones Evans). It was fairly ambitious, but the route was torturous travelling north from Cardiff, through the Brecon Beacons, Mid Wales and on to the north Wales coast via Corwen and Denbigh. Although railways like the Clwyd Valley line should be on the list for reopening in the future I actually think there's an "easier" way to link north and south effectively without having to drive reopened lines through the Brecon Beacons or the Clwydian Range.
I'm outlining five separate "big projects" to hopefully fullfil these strategic aims:
1. Improve links between north east Wales, Merseyside and Cardiff.
2. Directly link major settlements in Mid and North West Wales to the M4 corridor.
3. Directly link major settlements in Mid and North West Wales to Wrexham and Merseyside.
4. Improve connections with major English settlements in the Midlands and North West.
5. Improve rail services for existing settlements in eastern Carmarthenshire, Powys and Ceredigion.
6. Allow direct north-east to south-west rail services (Wrexham-Swansea) not only for passengers but as an alternative freight route (i.e. To/from Milford Haven).
All the screen caps are taken from Google Earth. I'm not an economist, engineer or an accountant so the cost estimates are based largely on existing projects elsewhere.
1. Upgrade to the Welsh Marches Line
- Electrification and track speed upgrades.
- Aim of getting Wrexham-Cardiff journey times to as close to 2hr15m as possible, with knock-on improvements to Holyhead-Cardiff journey times.
- Even better journey times possible with electrification of north Wales coast line.
- Improved journey times between Marches towns (i.e Hereford & Shrewsbury) and Cardiff, expanding Cardiff & Newport's economic catchment area.
- Electrification would allow improved rolling stock (i.e. Penedlino), reduced travel times, less wear on the track and improved passenger experience.
- Possible additional freight or passenger paths.
- Electrification in the Gwent area as part of a "south Wales metro" between Abergavenny, Cardiff Central and Newport.
- Estimated cost - ~£200million (based on £0.8m per km of double track electrified)
2. Swansea District Line – West Wales Line Gorseinon Link
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| Gorseinon Link (click to enlarge) |
- Could be either single or double track, part of the former line between Pontarddulais and Swansea Docks.
- Allows direct services to Swansea from Heart of Wales Line without having to turn back at Llanelli, improving journey times.
- New station at Gorseinon, might require relocation of Gowerton station to allow a new junction.
- Could form part of a wider Swansea/Carmarthenshire metro system including reopening of the Amman Valley line and new stations (i.e. Cockett) pushing Swansea's economic catchment area firmly into eastern Carmarthenshire and southern Powys.
- Part of the line has been built on, CPO issues. Would require a segregated crossing over/under the A484. Would probably require resignalling in parts.
- Estimated costs - ~£50million
3. Rebuilt Mid Wales Railway
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| Moat Lane - Llanidloes (click to enlarge) |
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| Llanidloes- Nantgwyn (click to enlarge) |
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| Nantgwyn - Rhayader (click to enlarge) |
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| Rhayader - Newbridge on Wye (click to enlarge) |
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| Newbridge on Wye - Builth Junction (click to enlarge) |
- Complete reopening of 55km of Mid Wales Railway between Builth Wells and remodelled Moat Lane Junction near Caersws.
- Could be a mix of single track and double track passing loops to improve line resilience.
- New stations at Llanidloes and Rhayader – could negate need for Rhayader Bypass and other road improvements.
- Would allow direct services between Aberystwyth, Pwllheli, Barmouth, Porthmadog and Newtown to Cardiff (via Swansea District Line), Swansea (via Gorseinon Link) and West Wales (via Llanelli).
- Could also allow direct Llandudno-South Wales services via link between Blaenau Ffestinog and the Cambrian Coast line near Penrhyndeudraeth (link here to Syniadau article)
- Drastically improved services to/from larger settlements south of Builth Wells (Llandovery, Ammanford, Pontarddulais, Llandeilo).
- Aim for an Aber-Cardiff journey of 3hrs 20m and Aber-Swansea journey of 2hrs 40m
- Should be built with electrification in mind.
- Would likely require improvements to Heart of Wales Line south of Builth Wells and Cambrian Coast Line, including reinstating some double track, for optimum travel times.
- Direct trains to Cardiff & Swansea shouldn't call at request stops, causing scheduling issues.
- Some major engineering work required, might not follow exactly the same route as former Mid Wales Railway.
- Serious environmental, CPO and private access issues. Would likely be strongly opposed by some, welcomed by others.
- "Nationally and strategically important" but unlikely to have a strong business case.
- Seat of government in Powys (Llandrindod Wells) effectively left out, would require good connections at Builth Wells.
- Would require a new bypass of Llanidloes, easily costing £40million+
- Estimated cost – At the very least ~£400million
4. Rebuilt Gobowen-Welshpool Link
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| Welshpool - Gobowen link (click to enlarge) |
- Reopen 25km of line through Oswestry, Pant and Four Crosses.
- Could be built as single line with passing loop at Oswestry and built with electification in mind.
- A new station at Oswestry (one of the largest towns without a station in the UK), possibly Pant as well.
- Might negate need for A483 upgrades.
- Could form part of a metro system in north east Wales, Cheshire, Shropshire and Merseyside.
- Mainly on the English side of the border, would require cooperation, almost certainly would be entirely funded by Welsh Government as such a link has no strategic value to England.
- Would allow direct services between Cambrian Coast Line and Wrexham (as well as Swansea via Heart of Wales and Mid Wales Line)
- Aim for journey time Aber-Wrexham of 2hr, comparable to Shrewsbury and a Wrexham-Swansea journey time of as close to 3hrs as possible (via Mid Wales Line).
- Estimated cost - ~£60million
5. Reinstated/upgraded Halton Curve
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| Reinstated Halton Curve (click to enlarge) |
- The most likely of these projects to actually happen.
- Entirely within England, no Welsh influence but strategically important to North Wales.
- Would allow direct North-Wales – Liverpool services and possible Cardiff to North West England or Glasgow.
- Should have a direct Cardiff-Liverpool Lime Street (or Cardiff-Manchester) service via Marches Line as the "premier" North-South rail service, complimenting Cardiff-Holyhead service.
- Estimated Cardiff-Liverpool journey time (with upgraded Marches line) ~3hrs Wrexham-Liverpool ~40m
- Estimated cost - £7million (£5m 2004 estimate), more if route is electrified
