 |
| (Pic : Getty images) |
The Senedd's External
Affairs Committee have called for the Welsh Government to start
planning for a post-Brexit, post-EU funding Wales in a new inquiry report published
last week (pdf).
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Showing posts with label Barnett. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Barnett. Show all posts
Monday, 26 June 2017
Wednesday, 29 March 2017
Tuesday, 28 June 2016
Senedd Debates Brexit
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| (Pic : Wales Online) |
I won't be covering First Minister's Questions this week – even though the business of government and legislature goes on – instead choosing to cover the National Assembly's response to the EU referendum result.
Saturday, 11 July 2015
AMs Mock UK's Dodgy Barnett
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| The Barnett formula - a simple concept, but difficult to negotiate in practice, especially when it comes to so-called "consequentials". |
Monday, 20 April 2015
Westminster 2015 : The Manifestos Part II
Following
yesterday's look at the party manifestos (linked
above), today it's the turn of the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and
UKIP.
Friday, 17 April 2015
Westminster 2015 : The BBC Challengers Debate
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| (Pic : The Mirror) |
The second of the main TV debates of Election 2015 was held last night, this time consisting of the opposition party leaders – so no David Cameron bwark-bwark-bwark-bwaaaark or Nick Clegg, which damaged the legitimacy a little bit.
Tuesday, 7 April 2015
Westminster 2015 : The Key Issues in Wales
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| What are likely to be the main issues for Welsh voters? (Pic : Click on Wales) |
The first debate's out of the way, I've given my verdict on the Coalition and the manifestos are going to be released over the next few weeks (I'll look at them in more detail once their all out, though UKIP are dragging their heels by the looks of it) - which means it's time to focus on some of the issues that might be fought over in Wales.
Monday, 27 February 2012
Plaid Leadership : Visions for Welsh Nationalism
The ballot papers have now gone out, and Plaid members from Bangor to Beacon Hill will be casting votes for a new leader. As this is the last comment from me on the leadership election until the winner is announced, I think it's worth reflecting on Ieuan Wyn Jones's tenure. I wrote an assessment last September, so I don't want to repeat myself too much.
For all his faults – the managerialism, the blandness, the waffling - he was a likable, effective, consensus-building leader who helped deliver a valuable and long overdue constitutional advancement. His record as economy minister might be open for debate, but I believe he was the best transport minister we've had since devolution. History is probably going to be far kinder to him than many expect. Diolch yn fawr iawn, Ieuan.
The whole leadership race has been a wonderful exercise. Plaid have hopefully set the trend and this could be the format adopted by all Welsh parties in the future. I commend Plaid and the candidates for how they've gone about this. By Welsh standards it's been a captivating and interesting contest from the start.
As to what do I think will happen, a lot has been said about second preferences, and I suspect that will be the deciding factor in favour of Elin Jones. I might as well come out and say it now - a few of you probably guessed anyway - if I had a vote, Leanne Wood would be my first preference. I quite like, in some respects even admire, Dafydd Elis-Thomas and all he's done for the Assembly. However I feel it's time for a new generation to step up.
This section is about how I see Welsh nationalism in general developing under each candidate.
Dafydd Elis-Thomas
Independence isn't high on Dafydd's list of priorities, that much is clear. He's part of a generation to which self-government in itself was a really significant development. I don't think anyone should criticise him too harshly if he's "soft" on independence. I suspect the rush towards that has only been boosted by the success of the SNP, who've managed to be open about independence without turning voters off. Dafydd is quite right to point out that Scotland isn't Wales - we have a different dynamic - but being ambiguous at the start has probably hurt his chances more than he realises. I actually think it would've been better if he had just come out and said he supported federalism or devo-max in the short term, or simply that Wales should match whatever constitutional settlement Scotland "gets" if they remain part of the UK.
There's always been an element (or an impression of an element) within Plaid who have never believed in independence in a UN-member, own military, own foreign policy sense - just "Home Rule". Now that we have "Home Rule" to an extent, Dafydd - if elected - will probably be the last Plaid leader to not support independence from the outset. In some respects his "post-nationalist"/"interdependence of nations" views are quite progressive, but he hasn't articulated what that means, or how Wales - as part of the UK - would be able to influence proceedings.
Dafydd believes in further devolution, as he puts it, the "UK needs to be reconfigured to meet the needs of the 21st century". Dafydd also believes that Wales will be independent in his lifetime and "relishes the chance" of leading debate on the issue. However, he doesn't offer any clues as to what powers should be devolved or even taken away. Dafydd's clearly pro-Europe, but it's unclear if he wants Wales to be a full member state - requiring independence - or remaining a "region" with little influence at the big tables.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Dafydd Elis-Thomas?
Guardians of devolution – Expect a slower pace to calls for constitutional change. Expect more reflection on the "devolution journey". Plaid would be positioning themselves as the "elders", making sure devolution works effectively in the interests of the Welsh people. All talk of independence will be on the backburner. Also, expect an awful lot of "friendly criticism" of Labour, probably culminating in a formal coalition at some point. Plaid would probably position themselves as a national movement akin to a political Gorsedd of Bards. Plaid would slowly become small-n nationalists, in an unofficial electoral pact with Labour as a progressive union – Labour's head to Plaid's heart - acting as a bulwark against the Tories at every turn.
Elin Jones
Elin Jones is clear that independence should be the primary aim for Plaid. In the campaign she's taken an even stronger line saying that two Assembly election wins would be a mandate for an independence referendum. So far, she's the only person who's set a tentative date – 2036 – the 500th anniversary of the first Laws in Wales Act and has subsequently said it could be as early as 2020.
Considering Elin will be pushing 70 years old by the latter date, and that many nationalists who steadfastly supported independence will - I hope I'm not being crass here - be worm food or a pile of ash, I would hope for a date a decade or so sooner. I should be well into middle age by then. I'm alright Jack. However I don't think it's right to set a date. It could happen in 5 years, it could happen in 100 years. What's important is that there's a case and a vision made.
It's good therefore that Elin says that there needs to be an "articulate route map to independence" with a "compelling vision". Plaid have attempted something like this before with Adam Price's Wales Can website. How this could be done will be a key issue. Will there be some grand "national conversation"?
Would members from other political parties be able to contribute their ideas for an independent Wales as a thought experiment? I'd be just as interested to hear what Labour, Greens, Lib Dems or the Tories would want an independent Wales to look like. If they use the cop out that "it'll never happen" then clearly they lack imagination.
Being a former Rural Affairs Minister, Elin realises the importance of the EU and has made it clear that she would like Wales to be a full EU member state. That old "independence in Europe" thing.
Elin says that Plaid should press for further devolution - noting fiscal autonomy - but she could be prejudicing the outcome of the Silk Commission by saying that.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Elin Jones?
Plaid Cymru Version 1.5 – Upgraded, improved, patched. With Elin's economics background I would expect a far more effective - in intellectual terms - opposition to Labour. Plaid would be treading very familiar ground : protecting the Welsh language, attacking Labour in the west and north, not really making any progress anywhere else. Elin would get good press, she'll be seen to be doing things - and she'll expect ordinary members of Plaid to do the same. Plaid will probably make a good go of recovering what they lost in 2011, but will find it difficult to break that 20% of the vote mark. Independence might be spoken of more openly, but without any spark.
Leanne Wood
Leanne generally treads a lot of the same ground as Elin Jones. Leanne says that independence should be Plaid's "unapologetic" primary long-term aim, and that independence needs to be "made clearer" to the electorate. She also says, that in the short-term, Plaid should continue to campaign for further devolution. Also like Elin, Leanne has unconditional support for the EU, but as a "union of peoples, not markets". Is there a hint of left-euroscepticism there?
Leanne Wood, along with Bethan Jenkins, are Wales' most high-profile republicans. As a republican myself this would be a huge development in UK politics. Should Leanne win, she would be the first leader of a political party on "mainland" Britain since Michael Foot (not exactly auspicious) to be an avowed republican AFAIK. How she would handle that tag could make or break her.
She would almost certainly get positive press in the leftie broadsheets on a whole range of issues (think Caroline Lucas). However, Leanne will have to remember, in a Jubilee year, that the Queen herself is quite popular. Even in Wales. Even indeed amongst a minority of Plaid members, supporters and voters. Christ, even I like Betty Windsor, however much I despise the institution.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Leanne Wood?
A popular progressive front – I don't think Leanne alone would lead to Plaid picking up lots of seats in the Valleys. Plaid simply aren't in that position. She would, however, be able to slash majorities – and that's absolutely crucial. If Labour have one more "bad" term post 2016, then those seats will be ripe for picking come 2020/21 - quite possibly with Adam Price in the Assembly, and opening the door to the likes of Ron Davies, rising stars like Heledd Fychan and the return of experienced former AMs like Helen Mary Jones and Nerys Evans. That's a government in waiting. It would be a big mistake to expect Leanne Wood to do this all by herself. It's going to be incredibly hard work.
A Leanne-led Plaid will presumably be attacking Labour from the left, but that could make Labour appear reasonable to the small-c conservative electorate. Plaid will be out there on the streets, getting noticed and getting involved. There'll be colour brought to debate in Wales, but will it always be articulate? Will all the sums add up? Will it be all heart over head? I could easily see membership gradually increase over the years, but not spectacularly. Leanne will be that rare breed – a Welsh politician people will want to be seen with – but whether those people would represent the average Welsh person would determine how this plays out for Plaid. If it's just the crusties, student lefties and trade unionists then prepare for disappointment in May 2016.
For all his faults – the managerialism, the blandness, the waffling - he was a likable, effective, consensus-building leader who helped deliver a valuable and long overdue constitutional advancement. His record as economy minister might be open for debate, but I believe he was the best transport minister we've had since devolution. History is probably going to be far kinder to him than many expect. Diolch yn fawr iawn, Ieuan.
The whole leadership race has been a wonderful exercise. Plaid have hopefully set the trend and this could be the format adopted by all Welsh parties in the future. I commend Plaid and the candidates for how they've gone about this. By Welsh standards it's been a captivating and interesting contest from the start.
As to what do I think will happen, a lot has been said about second preferences, and I suspect that will be the deciding factor in favour of Elin Jones. I might as well come out and say it now - a few of you probably guessed anyway - if I had a vote, Leanne Wood would be my first preference. I quite like, in some respects even admire, Dafydd Elis-Thomas and all he's done for the Assembly. However I feel it's time for a new generation to step up.
This section is about how I see Welsh nationalism in general developing under each candidate.
Dafydd Elis-Thomas
Independence isn't high on Dafydd's list of priorities, that much is clear. He's part of a generation to which self-government in itself was a really significant development. I don't think anyone should criticise him too harshly if he's "soft" on independence. I suspect the rush towards that has only been boosted by the success of the SNP, who've managed to be open about independence without turning voters off. Dafydd is quite right to point out that Scotland isn't Wales - we have a different dynamic - but being ambiguous at the start has probably hurt his chances more than he realises. I actually think it would've been better if he had just come out and said he supported federalism or devo-max in the short term, or simply that Wales should match whatever constitutional settlement Scotland "gets" if they remain part of the UK.
There's always been an element (or an impression of an element) within Plaid who have never believed in independence in a UN-member, own military, own foreign policy sense - just "Home Rule". Now that we have "Home Rule" to an extent, Dafydd - if elected - will probably be the last Plaid leader to not support independence from the outset. In some respects his "post-nationalist"/"interdependence of nations" views are quite progressive, but he hasn't articulated what that means, or how Wales - as part of the UK - would be able to influence proceedings.
Dafydd believes in further devolution, as he puts it, the "UK needs to be reconfigured to meet the needs of the 21st century". Dafydd also believes that Wales will be independent in his lifetime and "relishes the chance" of leading debate on the issue. However, he doesn't offer any clues as to what powers should be devolved or even taken away. Dafydd's clearly pro-Europe, but it's unclear if he wants Wales to be a full member state - requiring independence - or remaining a "region" with little influence at the big tables.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Dafydd Elis-Thomas?
Guardians of devolution – Expect a slower pace to calls for constitutional change. Expect more reflection on the "devolution journey". Plaid would be positioning themselves as the "elders", making sure devolution works effectively in the interests of the Welsh people. All talk of independence will be on the backburner. Also, expect an awful lot of "friendly criticism" of Labour, probably culminating in a formal coalition at some point. Plaid would probably position themselves as a national movement akin to a political Gorsedd of Bards. Plaid would slowly become small-n nationalists, in an unofficial electoral pact with Labour as a progressive union – Labour's head to Plaid's heart - acting as a bulwark against the Tories at every turn.
Elin Jones
Elin Jones is clear that independence should be the primary aim for Plaid. In the campaign she's taken an even stronger line saying that two Assembly election wins would be a mandate for an independence referendum. So far, she's the only person who's set a tentative date – 2036 – the 500th anniversary of the first Laws in Wales Act and has subsequently said it could be as early as 2020.
Considering Elin will be pushing 70 years old by the latter date, and that many nationalists who steadfastly supported independence will - I hope I'm not being crass here - be worm food or a pile of ash, I would hope for a date a decade or so sooner. I should be well into middle age by then. I'm alright Jack. However I don't think it's right to set a date. It could happen in 5 years, it could happen in 100 years. What's important is that there's a case and a vision made.
It's good therefore that Elin says that there needs to be an "articulate route map to independence" with a "compelling vision". Plaid have attempted something like this before with Adam Price's Wales Can website. How this could be done will be a key issue. Will there be some grand "national conversation"?
Would members from other political parties be able to contribute their ideas for an independent Wales as a thought experiment? I'd be just as interested to hear what Labour, Greens, Lib Dems or the Tories would want an independent Wales to look like. If they use the cop out that "it'll never happen" then clearly they lack imagination.
Being a former Rural Affairs Minister, Elin realises the importance of the EU and has made it clear that she would like Wales to be a full EU member state. That old "independence in Europe" thing.
Elin says that Plaid should press for further devolution - noting fiscal autonomy - but she could be prejudicing the outcome of the Silk Commission by saying that.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Elin Jones?
Plaid Cymru Version 1.5 – Upgraded, improved, patched. With Elin's economics background I would expect a far more effective - in intellectual terms - opposition to Labour. Plaid would be treading very familiar ground : protecting the Welsh language, attacking Labour in the west and north, not really making any progress anywhere else. Elin would get good press, she'll be seen to be doing things - and she'll expect ordinary members of Plaid to do the same. Plaid will probably make a good go of recovering what they lost in 2011, but will find it difficult to break that 20% of the vote mark. Independence might be spoken of more openly, but without any spark.
Leanne Wood
Leanne generally treads a lot of the same ground as Elin Jones. Leanne says that independence should be Plaid's "unapologetic" primary long-term aim, and that independence needs to be "made clearer" to the electorate. She also says, that in the short-term, Plaid should continue to campaign for further devolution. Also like Elin, Leanne has unconditional support for the EU, but as a "union of peoples, not markets". Is there a hint of left-euroscepticism there?
Leanne Wood, along with Bethan Jenkins, are Wales' most high-profile republicans. As a republican myself this would be a huge development in UK politics. Should Leanne win, she would be the first leader of a political party on "mainland" Britain since Michael Foot (not exactly auspicious) to be an avowed republican AFAIK. How she would handle that tag could make or break her.
She would almost certainly get positive press in the leftie broadsheets on a whole range of issues (think Caroline Lucas). However, Leanne will have to remember, in a Jubilee year, that the Queen herself is quite popular. Even in Wales. Even indeed amongst a minority of Plaid members, supporters and voters. Christ, even I like Betty Windsor, however much I despise the institution.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Leanne Wood?
A popular progressive front – I don't think Leanne alone would lead to Plaid picking up lots of seats in the Valleys. Plaid simply aren't in that position. She would, however, be able to slash majorities – and that's absolutely crucial. If Labour have one more "bad" term post 2016, then those seats will be ripe for picking come 2020/21 - quite possibly with Adam Price in the Assembly, and opening the door to the likes of Ron Davies, rising stars like Heledd Fychan and the return of experienced former AMs like Helen Mary Jones and Nerys Evans. That's a government in waiting. It would be a big mistake to expect Leanne Wood to do this all by herself. It's going to be incredibly hard work.
A Leanne-led Plaid will presumably be attacking Labour from the left, but that could make Labour appear reasonable to the small-c conservative electorate. Plaid will be out there on the streets, getting noticed and getting involved. There'll be colour brought to debate in Wales, but will it always be articulate? Will all the sums add up? Will it be all heart over head? I could easily see membership gradually increase over the years, but not spectacularly. Leanne will be that rare breed – a Welsh politician people will want to be seen with – but whether those people would represent the average Welsh person would determine how this plays out for Plaid. If it's just the crusties, student lefties and trade unionists then prepare for disappointment in May 2016.
Wednesday, 7 December 2011
Welsh Government's reprioritised National Transport Plan
Local Government and Communities Minister Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside) has unveiled the Welsh Government's reprioritisation of the National Transport Plan (NTP).
Transport has been one of the areas where, in my opinion, successive Welsh Governments can point to some success. We've seen multiple road schemes delivered after long waits, rail lines and stations reopened and a clear commitment to sustainable development.
Unfortunately I think that's coming to an end now.
I realise that transport isn't a sexy portfolio for Labour in particular. The fact it's been inexplicably lumped in with Local Government portfolio - instead of the economy - shows what Labour consider transports role to be – not an economic driver or key plank in infrastructure but as something to be "tweaked" at a "community" level to provide "opportunities".
We could've done far worse than have the capable Carl Sargeant in charge of transport, but having looked at the reprioritisation I can't help but feel let down.
Far from prioritising "key" east-west transport links, it appears as though "tweaking" has won the day. The Welsh Government may point to 40% cuts in capital expenditure but just take a look at the Scottish Government's plans for infrastructure development and weep.
Instead of " standing up for Wales", we're increasingly going to be looking to Westminster as the key driver of infrastructure development. The ridiculous M4 Newport bypass has already been resurrected from the grave for the umpteenth time along with that other zombie the Severn Barrage. I don't think either will happen to be blunt, despite the headlines.
Before I'm accused of bias, I don't think Ieuan Wyn Jones's original NTP was "blow your socks off" stuff either and he didn't have to deal with the capital budget cuts. In Plaid's defence, they offered an alternative model to raise money – something the Scottish Government have taken onboard. Labour have offered nothing but excuses.
It isn't all bad news though.
Transport has been one of the areas where, in my opinion, successive Welsh Governments can point to some success. We've seen multiple road schemes delivered after long waits, rail lines and stations reopened and a clear commitment to sustainable development.
Unfortunately I think that's coming to an end now.
I realise that transport isn't a sexy portfolio for Labour in particular. The fact it's been inexplicably lumped in with Local Government portfolio - instead of the economy - shows what Labour consider transports role to be – not an economic driver or key plank in infrastructure but as something to be "tweaked" at a "community" level to provide "opportunities".
We could've done far worse than have the capable Carl Sargeant in charge of transport, but having looked at the reprioritisation I can't help but feel let down.
Far from prioritising "key" east-west transport links, it appears as though "tweaking" has won the day. The Welsh Government may point to 40% cuts in capital expenditure but just take a look at the Scottish Government's plans for infrastructure development and weep.
Instead of " standing up for Wales", we're increasingly going to be looking to Westminster as the key driver of infrastructure development. The ridiculous M4 Newport bypass has already been resurrected from the grave for the umpteenth time along with that other zombie the Severn Barrage. I don't think either will happen to be blunt, despite the headlines.
Before I'm accused of bias, I don't think Ieuan Wyn Jones's original NTP was "blow your socks off" stuff either and he didn't have to deal with the capital budget cuts. In Plaid's defence, they offered an alternative model to raise money – something the Scottish Government have taken onboard. Labour have offered nothing but excuses.
It isn't all bad news though.
- The commitment to complete A465 duelling by 2020 remains and construction of the next stage is imminent.
- New bypasses for Newtown, Caernarfon and Builth Wells are included in the "taken forward" programme.
- New stations at Brackla (Bridgend) and Energlyn (Caerphilly) by 2015 plus capacity improvements in the south Wales valley rail network and between Wrexham and Chester.
- A commitment to an hourly service between Aberystwyth and Shrewsbury and redoubling of track between Llanelli and Gowerton.
As you can probably see, the reason I'm so disappointed is that many of these things have already been announced. None of it is "new" and I'm not convinced that these schemes are seriously going to boost the economy. I'm more relieved that these things have been kept in.
I was expecting Labour to want to stamp their own mark on the NTP and perhaps drop some, if not all, of the "north-south" improvements and deliver at least one of the "big bang" transport schemes Wales is crying out for. Schemes that would really boost the Welsh economy.
In my view these "big bangs" are:
- Electrification of the Valley Lines (or a clear commitment/timetable with Westminster cooperation)
- Upgrade the A48 around Newport to near-motorway standard (i.e some grade separation of junctions on the SDR) and remodel the existing M4 through Newport
- The A4232 Cardiff Periphery Distributor completion (Cardiff Bay-Newport Road)
- A494 Queensferry-Ewloe Upgrade
....none of them made the list, although there is some vague reference to provide more "resilience" to the M4 at Newport. Perhaps there's still time for Carwyn, Kirsty or Carl to pull a rabbit out of the hat with the £200-odd million coming courtesy of Gorgeous George's Autumn statement but I'm not holding my breath.
I mean why the hell are we going to have to wait until after 2015 for an express bus to Cardiff Airport for heaven's sake!?
Saturday, 19 November 2011
Back on track - Network Rail's long overdue "devolution" to Wales
Network Rail, the company responsible for rail infrastructure in England, Scotland and Wales, has finally created a new all-Wales division. They announced the move many months ago off the back of the Department for Transport's McNulty Report, which suggested "devolution and decentralisation" to improve efficiency. This week, the First Minister formally launched their new operation near Cardiff Central station.
Why is this such an important development?
Railways have been partially devolved to the Assembly since 2005. Network Rail decisions - like those relating to station refurbishments or other major railway improvements - were still made on an EnglandandWales basis. The Assembly did have some influence over the railways, such as funding the Arriva Trains franchise and providing money to "improve services."
In all honesty, it was a bit of a dog's dinner. The Third Assembly's Enterprise & Learning Committee report into future railway infrastructure in Wales found:
Why is this such an important development?
Railways have been partially devolved to the Assembly since 2005. Network Rail decisions - like those relating to station refurbishments or other major railway improvements - were still made on an EnglandandWales basis. The Assembly did have some influence over the railways, such as funding the Arriva Trains franchise and providing money to "improve services."
In all honesty, it was a bit of a dog's dinner. The Third Assembly's Enterprise & Learning Committee report into future railway infrastructure in Wales found:
- Stations like Cardiff Central were not being prioritised in a way that acknowledged their "major role" or passenger numbers.
- Network Rail had no idea how much they actually spent on railways in Wales - only estimates.
- The UK Government thought it was "unacceptable" to devolve Network Rail to Wales because too many services shared infrastructure and cross-border services. Transport Scotland didn't see this as an issue in their own arrangement.
- The majority of witnesses to the inquiry supported further devolution of the railways to the Assembly.
- Scotland was able to spend "several hundred million pounds" on rail infrastructure because of it's block grant allocation and rail devolution, Wales "didn't have that luxury".
Now that Network Rail will make decisions in Wales, it gives the Assembly much greater clout in prioritising schemes. It also means that there is - at last - a joined up system for running Welsh railway infrastructure. Hopefully, it'll lead to many big improvements in the next few years a lot quicker than they otherwise would have on an EnglandandWales basis such as:
- Station improvements to Cardiff Central and Queen Street Stations
- Electrification of the south Wales main line to Swansea
- Possible future electrification of the Valley Lines and north wales mainline
- Capacity improvements around Cardiff & Newport
- A rail service between Ebbw Vale and Newport
- Reopening the Aberdare-Hirwaun line and line from Gaerwen to Llangefni (or Amlwch) to passengers
- Redoubling of track between Llanelli and Swansea
- More frequent services in west Wales
There is, however, a big catch. Although the decision making is now devolved, the Network Rail budget isn't, and currently, around 3% of Network Rail funding is spent on the Welsh rail network (which includes a chunk of England's) - around 2% lower than the Welsh UK population share. Scotland, however, does receive it's population share, and has used the money to carry out some significant improvements to the Scottish rail network.
Part of that "missing" 2% will be used by the UK Government to fund projects like Crossrail, Reading Station redevelopment and electrifying rail lines to Blackpool (while electification to Swansea is moving at a slow pace).
I believe that this could be because within EnglandandWales funding has been dependant on the length on the network/route miles and not on passenger numbers or national/regional population share. With Network Rail devolved, the next piece in the puzzle is to devolve the budget in line with Scotland.
Welsh railways are back on track perhaps, but not going anywhere fast just yet.
Wednesday, 5 October 2011
Draft Budget announced
The draft budget for 2012-13 was announced yesterday by the Minister for Finance Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan).
In her statement to the Senedd she said:
In her statement to the Senedd she said:
"We have a responsibility to use all the levers we have to stimulate the economy against the backdrop of failing economic performance, with the UK Government having no credible plan for long term growth. Our vision for Wales is for a more prosperous economy with better, more efficient public services that equip people to fulfil their potential and maximise their contribution to society and the economy. "
Draft Total Departmental Budget Allocations
(Change on 2011-12 Supplementary Budget)
- Health & Social Services £6.47bn (+£48m)
- Local Government & Communities £5.17bn (+£15.8m)
- Education & Skills £1.96bn (+£34.6m)
- Housing, Regeneration & Heritage £514m (-£16.7m)
- Central Administration £349m (-£13.4m)
- Environment & Sustainable Development £327m (-£2.9m)
- Business, Enterprise, Technology, Science £313m (-£8.9m)
In the Draft Budget Narrative Jane Hutt also:
- Says that in real terms the Welsh Budget will be £1.95bn lower in 2014-15 than in 2010-11, with a fall of £430m for 2012-13. It will also be £1.3bn lower on 2014-15 than the Welsh budget "peak" of 2009-10.
- Says that capital spending will fall by 9.9% in 2012-13 - lower than the 28.6% fall in 2011-12. In real terms capital spending will be 50% less in 2014-15 than in 2009-10.
- Accuses the UK Government of cuts that "go too far, too fast". However says that the Welsh Government is acting responsibly and will play it's role in deficit reduction.
- Calls for borrowing powers for the Welsh Government and a "funding floor" as the first step towards a fairer funding model for Wales.
- Presses the UK Government to modify their proposals to change End Year Flexibility.
- Commits £25m per annum to create 4,000 jobs for 16-24 year olds (Jobs Growth Wales), part funded by Welsh and EU structural funds.
- Commits to increased GP access measures such as Saturday opening.
- Commits to the pledge to increase spending on schools by 1% above overall changes to the Welsh Budget, committing £27million for schools in 2014-15. Cash budgets for schools will grow by more than 5% over the budget period.
- Commits £5million in 2013-14 and 2014-15 to Local Government and Communities to fund an extra 500 PCSO's.
- Allocates an additional £5m (2012-13), £20m (2013-14), £30m (2014-15) to double the number of children in Flying Start.
- Allocates an extra £287.5m over the next three years to the Welsh NHS but also says that the NHS needs to find savings of up to £250m a year, which has been done efficiently to date with saving of up to £300m found in both 2010-11 and 2011-12.
- Protects universal benefits (free prescriptions, free school breakfasts, concessionary bus fares, free swimming schemes).
- Says the Local Government and Communities Department will undertake a prioritisation exercise for National Transport Plan projects.
- Will invest £89.4m in targeted support for business, £14.4m in youth entrepreneurship and start-ups, £18.1m for tourism marketing and £3.9m for "major events" - including a feasibility study for a Cardiff 2026 Commonwealth Games bid.
- Commits £26.4m on "Welsh Learning" and establishing a Welsh Language Commissioner.
- Says that staffing costs at the Assembly will fall by £20million by 2014-15 and the number of staff overall will fall over the period.
Nothing too exciting or overly dramatic there, some questionable decisions (like cutting the Business budget) but it's a difficult, if not a harsh, settlement. Whisper it quietly, but Jane Hutt's quite good at this....
