The ballot papers have now gone out, and Plaid members from Bangor to Beacon Hill will be casting votes for a new leader. As this is the last comment from me on the leadership election until the winner is announced, I think it's worth reflecting on Ieuan Wyn Jones's tenure. I wrote an assessment last September, so I don't want to repeat myself too much.
For all his faults – the managerialism, the blandness, the waffling - he was a likable, effective, consensus-building leader who helped deliver a valuable and long overdue constitutional advancement. His record as economy minister might be open for debate, but I believe he was the best transport minister we've had since devolution. History is probably going to be far kinder to him than many expect. Diolch yn fawr iawn, Ieuan.
The whole leadership race has been a wonderful exercise. Plaid have hopefully set the trend and this could be the format adopted by all Welsh parties in the future. I commend Plaid and the candidates for how they've gone about this. By Welsh standards it's been a captivating and interesting contest from the start.
As to what do I think will happen, a lot has been said about second preferences, and I suspect that will be the deciding factor in favour of Elin Jones. I might as well come out and say it now - a few of you probably guessed anyway - if I had a vote, Leanne Wood would be my first preference. I quite like, in some respects even admire, Dafydd Elis-Thomas and all he's done for the Assembly. However I feel it's time for a new generation to step up.
This section is about how I see Welsh nationalism in general developing under each candidate.
Dafydd Elis-Thomas
Independence isn't high on Dafydd's list of priorities, that much is clear. He's part of a generation to which self-government in itself was a really significant development. I don't think anyone should criticise him too harshly if he's "soft" on independence. I suspect the rush towards that has only been boosted by the success of the SNP, who've managed to be open about independence without turning voters off. Dafydd is quite right to point out that Scotland isn't Wales - we have a different dynamic - but being ambiguous at the start has probably hurt his chances more than he realises. I actually think it would've been better if he had just come out and said he supported federalism or devo-max in the short term, or simply that Wales should match whatever constitutional settlement Scotland "gets" if they remain part of the UK.
There's always been an element (or an impression of an element) within Plaid who have never believed in independence in a UN-member, own military, own foreign policy sense - just "Home Rule". Now that we have "Home Rule" to an extent, Dafydd - if elected - will probably be the last Plaid leader to not support independence from the outset. In some respects his "post-nationalist"/"interdependence of nations" views are quite progressive, but he hasn't articulated what that means, or how Wales - as part of the UK - would be able to influence proceedings.
Dafydd believes in further devolution, as he puts it, the "UK needs to be reconfigured to meet the needs of the 21st century". Dafydd also believes that Wales will be independent in his lifetime and "relishes the chance" of leading debate on the issue. However, he doesn't offer any clues as to what powers should be devolved or even taken away. Dafydd's clearly pro-Europe, but it's unclear if he wants Wales to be a full member state - requiring independence - or remaining a "region" with little influence at the big tables.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Dafydd Elis-Thomas?
Guardians of devolution – Expect a slower pace to calls for constitutional change. Expect more reflection on the "devolution journey". Plaid would be positioning themselves as the "elders", making sure devolution works effectively in the interests of the Welsh people. All talk of independence will be on the backburner. Also, expect an awful lot of "friendly criticism" of Labour, probably culminating in a formal coalition at some point. Plaid would probably position themselves as a national movement akin to a political Gorsedd of Bards. Plaid would slowly become small-n nationalists, in an unofficial electoral pact with Labour as a progressive union – Labour's head to Plaid's heart - acting as a bulwark against the Tories at every turn.
Elin Jones
Elin Jones is clear that independence should be the primary aim for Plaid. In the campaign she's taken an even stronger line saying that two Assembly election wins would be a mandate for an independence referendum. So far, she's the only person who's set a tentative date – 2036 – the 500th anniversary of the first Laws in Wales Act and has subsequently said it could be as early as 2020.
Considering Elin will be pushing 70 years old by the latter date, and that many nationalists who steadfastly supported independence will - I hope I'm not being crass here - be worm food or a pile of ash, I would hope for a date a decade or so sooner. I should be well into middle age by then. I'm alright Jack. However I don't think it's right to set a date. It could happen in 5 years, it could happen in 100 years. What's important is that there's a case and a vision made.
It's good therefore that Elin says that there needs to be an "articulate route map to independence" with a "compelling vision". Plaid have attempted something like this before with Adam Price's Wales Can website. How this could be done will be a key issue. Will there be some grand "national conversation"?
Would members from other political parties be able to contribute their ideas for an independent Wales as a thought experiment? I'd be just as interested to hear what Labour, Greens, Lib Dems or the Tories would want an independent Wales to look like. If they use the cop out that "it'll never happen" then clearly they lack imagination.
Being a former Rural Affairs Minister, Elin realises the importance of the EU and has made it clear that she would like Wales to be a full EU member state. That old "independence in Europe" thing.
Elin says that Plaid should press for further devolution - noting fiscal autonomy - but she could be prejudicing the outcome of the Silk Commission by saying that.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Elin Jones?
Plaid Cymru Version 1.5 – Upgraded, improved, patched. With Elin's economics background I would expect a far more effective - in intellectual terms - opposition to Labour. Plaid would be treading very familiar ground : protecting the Welsh language, attacking Labour in the west and north, not really making any progress anywhere else. Elin would get good press, she'll be seen to be doing things - and she'll expect ordinary members of Plaid to do the same. Plaid will probably make a good go of recovering what they lost in 2011, but will find it difficult to break that 20% of the vote mark. Independence might be spoken of more openly, but without any spark.
Leanne Wood
Leanne generally treads a lot of the same ground as Elin Jones. Leanne says that independence should be Plaid's "unapologetic" primary long-term aim, and that independence needs to be "made clearer" to the electorate. She also says, that in the short-term, Plaid should continue to campaign for further devolution. Also like Elin, Leanne has unconditional support for the EU, but as a "union of peoples, not markets". Is there a hint of left-euroscepticism there?
Leanne Wood, along with Bethan Jenkins, are Wales' most high-profile republicans. As a republican myself this would be a huge development in UK politics. Should Leanne win, she would be the first leader of a political party on "mainland" Britain since Michael Foot (not exactly auspicious) to be an avowed republican AFAIK. How she would handle that tag could make or break her.
She would almost certainly get positive press in the leftie broadsheets on a whole range of issues (think Caroline Lucas). However, Leanne will have to remember, in a Jubilee year, that the Queen herself is quite popular. Even in Wales. Even indeed amongst a minority of Plaid members, supporters and voters. Christ, even I like Betty Windsor, however much I despise the institution.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Leanne Wood?
A popular progressive front – I don't think Leanne alone would lead to Plaid picking up lots of seats in the Valleys. Plaid simply aren't in that position. She would, however, be able to slash majorities – and that's absolutely crucial. If Labour have one more "bad" term post 2016, then those seats will be ripe for picking come 2020/21 - quite possibly with Adam Price in the Assembly, and opening the door to the likes of Ron Davies, rising stars like Heledd Fychan and the return of experienced former AMs like Helen Mary Jones and Nerys Evans. That's a government in waiting. It would be a big mistake to expect Leanne Wood to do this all by herself. It's going to be incredibly hard work.
A Leanne-led Plaid will presumably be attacking Labour from the left, but that could make Labour appear reasonable to the small-c conservative electorate. Plaid will be out there on the streets, getting noticed and getting involved. There'll be colour brought to debate in Wales, but will it always be articulate? Will all the sums add up? Will it be all heart over head? I could easily see membership gradually increase over the years, but not spectacularly. Leanne will be that rare breed – a Welsh politician people will want to be seen with – but whether those people would represent the average Welsh person would determine how this plays out for Plaid. If it's just the crusties, student lefties and trade unionists then prepare for disappointment in May 2016.
For all his faults – the managerialism, the blandness, the waffling - he was a likable, effective, consensus-building leader who helped deliver a valuable and long overdue constitutional advancement. His record as economy minister might be open for debate, but I believe he was the best transport minister we've had since devolution. History is probably going to be far kinder to him than many expect. Diolch yn fawr iawn, Ieuan.
The whole leadership race has been a wonderful exercise. Plaid have hopefully set the trend and this could be the format adopted by all Welsh parties in the future. I commend Plaid and the candidates for how they've gone about this. By Welsh standards it's been a captivating and interesting contest from the start.
As to what do I think will happen, a lot has been said about second preferences, and I suspect that will be the deciding factor in favour of Elin Jones. I might as well come out and say it now - a few of you probably guessed anyway - if I had a vote, Leanne Wood would be my first preference. I quite like, in some respects even admire, Dafydd Elis-Thomas and all he's done for the Assembly. However I feel it's time for a new generation to step up.
This section is about how I see Welsh nationalism in general developing under each candidate.
Dafydd Elis-Thomas
Independence isn't high on Dafydd's list of priorities, that much is clear. He's part of a generation to which self-government in itself was a really significant development. I don't think anyone should criticise him too harshly if he's "soft" on independence. I suspect the rush towards that has only been boosted by the success of the SNP, who've managed to be open about independence without turning voters off. Dafydd is quite right to point out that Scotland isn't Wales - we have a different dynamic - but being ambiguous at the start has probably hurt his chances more than he realises. I actually think it would've been better if he had just come out and said he supported federalism or devo-max in the short term, or simply that Wales should match whatever constitutional settlement Scotland "gets" if they remain part of the UK.
There's always been an element (or an impression of an element) within Plaid who have never believed in independence in a UN-member, own military, own foreign policy sense - just "Home Rule". Now that we have "Home Rule" to an extent, Dafydd - if elected - will probably be the last Plaid leader to not support independence from the outset. In some respects his "post-nationalist"/"interdependence of nations" views are quite progressive, but he hasn't articulated what that means, or how Wales - as part of the UK - would be able to influence proceedings.
Dafydd believes in further devolution, as he puts it, the "UK needs to be reconfigured to meet the needs of the 21st century". Dafydd also believes that Wales will be independent in his lifetime and "relishes the chance" of leading debate on the issue. However, he doesn't offer any clues as to what powers should be devolved or even taken away. Dafydd's clearly pro-Europe, but it's unclear if he wants Wales to be a full member state - requiring independence - or remaining a "region" with little influence at the big tables.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Dafydd Elis-Thomas?
Guardians of devolution – Expect a slower pace to calls for constitutional change. Expect more reflection on the "devolution journey". Plaid would be positioning themselves as the "elders", making sure devolution works effectively in the interests of the Welsh people. All talk of independence will be on the backburner. Also, expect an awful lot of "friendly criticism" of Labour, probably culminating in a formal coalition at some point. Plaid would probably position themselves as a national movement akin to a political Gorsedd of Bards. Plaid would slowly become small-n nationalists, in an unofficial electoral pact with Labour as a progressive union – Labour's head to Plaid's heart - acting as a bulwark against the Tories at every turn.
Elin Jones
Elin Jones is clear that independence should be the primary aim for Plaid. In the campaign she's taken an even stronger line saying that two Assembly election wins would be a mandate for an independence referendum. So far, she's the only person who's set a tentative date – 2036 – the 500th anniversary of the first Laws in Wales Act and has subsequently said it could be as early as 2020.
Considering Elin will be pushing 70 years old by the latter date, and that many nationalists who steadfastly supported independence will - I hope I'm not being crass here - be worm food or a pile of ash, I would hope for a date a decade or so sooner. I should be well into middle age by then. I'm alright Jack. However I don't think it's right to set a date. It could happen in 5 years, it could happen in 100 years. What's important is that there's a case and a vision made.
It's good therefore that Elin says that there needs to be an "articulate route map to independence" with a "compelling vision". Plaid have attempted something like this before with Adam Price's Wales Can website. How this could be done will be a key issue. Will there be some grand "national conversation"?
Would members from other political parties be able to contribute their ideas for an independent Wales as a thought experiment? I'd be just as interested to hear what Labour, Greens, Lib Dems or the Tories would want an independent Wales to look like. If they use the cop out that "it'll never happen" then clearly they lack imagination.
Being a former Rural Affairs Minister, Elin realises the importance of the EU and has made it clear that she would like Wales to be a full EU member state. That old "independence in Europe" thing.
Elin says that Plaid should press for further devolution - noting fiscal autonomy - but she could be prejudicing the outcome of the Silk Commission by saying that.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Elin Jones?
Plaid Cymru Version 1.5 – Upgraded, improved, patched. With Elin's economics background I would expect a far more effective - in intellectual terms - opposition to Labour. Plaid would be treading very familiar ground : protecting the Welsh language, attacking Labour in the west and north, not really making any progress anywhere else. Elin would get good press, she'll be seen to be doing things - and she'll expect ordinary members of Plaid to do the same. Plaid will probably make a good go of recovering what they lost in 2011, but will find it difficult to break that 20% of the vote mark. Independence might be spoken of more openly, but without any spark.
Leanne Wood
Leanne generally treads a lot of the same ground as Elin Jones. Leanne says that independence should be Plaid's "unapologetic" primary long-term aim, and that independence needs to be "made clearer" to the electorate. She also says, that in the short-term, Plaid should continue to campaign for further devolution. Also like Elin, Leanne has unconditional support for the EU, but as a "union of peoples, not markets". Is there a hint of left-euroscepticism there?
Leanne Wood, along with Bethan Jenkins, are Wales' most high-profile republicans. As a republican myself this would be a huge development in UK politics. Should Leanne win, she would be the first leader of a political party on "mainland" Britain since Michael Foot (not exactly auspicious) to be an avowed republican AFAIK. How she would handle that tag could make or break her.
She would almost certainly get positive press in the leftie broadsheets on a whole range of issues (think Caroline Lucas). However, Leanne will have to remember, in a Jubilee year, that the Queen herself is quite popular. Even in Wales. Even indeed amongst a minority of Plaid members, supporters and voters. Christ, even I like Betty Windsor, however much I despise the institution.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Leanne Wood?
A popular progressive front – I don't think Leanne alone would lead to Plaid picking up lots of seats in the Valleys. Plaid simply aren't in that position. She would, however, be able to slash majorities – and that's absolutely crucial. If Labour have one more "bad" term post 2016, then those seats will be ripe for picking come 2020/21 - quite possibly with Adam Price in the Assembly, and opening the door to the likes of Ron Davies, rising stars like Heledd Fychan and the return of experienced former AMs like Helen Mary Jones and Nerys Evans. That's a government in waiting. It would be a big mistake to expect Leanne Wood to do this all by herself. It's going to be incredibly hard work.
A Leanne-led Plaid will presumably be attacking Labour from the left, but that could make Labour appear reasonable to the small-c conservative electorate. Plaid will be out there on the streets, getting noticed and getting involved. There'll be colour brought to debate in Wales, but will it always be articulate? Will all the sums add up? Will it be all heart over head? I could easily see membership gradually increase over the years, but not spectacularly. Leanne will be that rare breed – a Welsh politician people will want to be seen with – but whether those people would represent the average Welsh person would determine how this plays out for Plaid. If it's just the crusties, student lefties and trade unionists then prepare for disappointment in May 2016.
