Clear vision needed for post-Brexit regional funds

(Pic : Getty images)

The Senedd's External Affairs Committee have called for the Welsh Government to start planning for a post-Brexit, post-EU funding Wales in a new inquiry report published last week (pdf).

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FMQs: Gaffes, Circuit of Wales & Borrowing

This afternoon saw the final FMQs before the local elections on Thursday and the first since the announcement of the forthcoming UK general election.

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Post-Brexit goals for Welsh farming outlined

(Pic : Wales Online)

Last week, the Senedd's Environment Committee published its report on the future of Welsh agriculture and land management (pdf).

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FMQs: Article 50, NHS Deficits & Grass fires

The news that the Welsh Government will refuse to bail out four health boards dominated proceedings today, but the activation of Article 50 tomorrow also focused attentions.

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Committees Bite Size #1: December 2016

Like First Minister's Questions, this is an experiment in improving Oggy Bloggy Ogwr's depth of coverage. As some of you might've seen from my fifth anniversary post last March, I only cover about a third of the Assembly's committee work. This move will enable me to push closer to 80-100%.

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Welsh Budget 2017-18

(Pic : BBC Wales)

The Welsh Government's spending plans for the next financial year were tabled in the Senedd on Tuesday by Local Government & Finance Secretary, Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West).

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A Guide to the Welsh Third Sector

(Pic : Barnardo's)

I'm going to guess most people reading this know what the Third Sector is as it's been in and out of the headlines – directly and indirectly – for many years, having become a friendlier face of private involvement in public services and alternative to top-down state planning.

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Why was the Commonwealth Games bid ditched?

Not coming to a town or city near you....
(Pic : ITV Wales)

Towards the end of July, Economy & Infrastructure Secretary, Ken Skates (Lab, Clwyd South), announced that a speculative Welsh bid to host the 2026 Commonwealth Games would not go ahead following a feasibility study - a 12-page summary of which was released on July 26^th (pdf).

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FMQs : EU, Opencast & Orlando

Another week, another edition of First Minister's Questions with a wide range of topics from farming to planning and the Welsh language.

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Fourth Assembly Review : Final Verdict

(Pic : The Guardian)

Here's a final round-up of how the Welsh Government and opposition party leaders have performed as the Fourth Assembly draws to a close.

• End of Year Report 2015
• End of Year Report 2014
• WAG End of Year Report Card 2013
• Welsh Government - End of year report (2012)

Office of First Minister; Constitutional & Legislative Affairs

• First Minister : Carwyn Jones (2011-2016)
• Counsel General : Theodore Huckle QC (2011-2016)

C+

Does Carwyn display leadership credentials? I say yes on the whole and it's hard to picture anyone else on the Labour front bench being able to replace him. Carwyn also thinks very carefully before acting – which should be considered a good trait in a political leader – but he seems to be a bit slow to move from talking about doing something to actually doing something.

I wouldn't say he's smug, but it's clear Carwyn thinks he's above the opposition leaders and finds FMQs a chore; in all honesty, you can't blame him. He finds it all too easy to bat off questions – presumably because of his background as a barrister – and he'll often find agreement with Plaid and Lib Dems on certain matters of policy. As a result he's rarely put under any pressure at all, but comes across as a bit too laid back.

The Counsel General had a more prominent role this term and racked up a 2-1 victory over the UK Attorney General after three Welsh laws were challenged in the Supreme Court. He did his job – nothing good or bad you can say about that. He could well play a key role in the argument for some sort of Welsh legal jurisdiction in the future, but AMs seem reluctant to ask him questions – Simon Thomas and Mick Antoniw aside.

Finance & Leader of the House

• Minister : Jane Hutt (2011-2016)

B-

Finance Minister is one of the duller postings in the Welsh Government, but it requires a strong hand and a cool head to deal with competing priorities. Jane might not have set the world alight in other roles down the years, but I'd say she's found her niche and that could stand her in good stead if she decides to make a leadership bid in the future. Maybe she's shown a bit too much favouritism to the NHS in her budgets, but I'd say her overall management of the nation's finances has been sound, with cautiously sensible proposals for the management of devolved taxes in the Fifth Assembly.

Considering the time and manpower constraints, the Assembly's calendar has been well-managed, with the introduction of topical individual members debates bringing more relevant discussions into the chamber. However, the weekly business statement announcements verged on pointless as Jane always has an excuse on hand not to hold a debate or support a ministerial statement - which clearly frustrated many AMs over the last five years.

Economy, Science & Transport

• Ministers : Edwina Hart (2011-2016),
• Deputy Ministers : Jeff Cuthbert (2011-2013), Ken Skates (2013-2014), Julie James (2014-2016)

B

It started very wobbly indeed, but in the end – and with evidence to back it up – it's hard to argue against Edwina Hart's stint here being anything other than a success and she's leaving the Assembly on a high.

Unemployment's down, there are some big schemes on the table on in the pipeline and the Welsh economy has been through a period of growth. The only real criticisms would be her department's failure to properly implement reforms to business rates while it's clear that some of Edwina's actions have been unnecessarily combative – the closure of Junction 41 in Port Talbot, for example.

Ken Skates' brief stint as Deputy Minister for Skills was a rare ministerial highlight as he oversaw the rapid expansion of Jobs Growth Wales, which made the decision to move him in 2014 all the stranger.

Health & Social Services

• Ministers : Lesley Griffiths (2011-2013), Mark Drakeford (2013-2016),
• Deputy Ministers : Gwenda Thomas (2011-2014), Vaughan Gething (2014-2016)

D

Health is the big area of policy failure for Labour, mainly due to service failures rather than their intent to make improvements. They've passed three significant laws on health and social services this term – Hygiene Ratings Act, Human Transplantation Act, Social Services & Wellbeing Act – but not without controversy or incident, such as the original proposals for vaping in the Public Health Bill (which ultimately failed) and the smacking ban.

I've said enough about their policy performance, so I'll focus on the ministers themselves. It was quite clear that Lesley Griffiths was out of her depth and lost control of matters at times. While Mark Drakeford brought a more considered intellectualism to the post he's hardly set the world alight either. There's a real danger that Health Minister is going to become the post nobody wants.

Although he was perhaps too slow to act on the McClelland review's recommendations on ambulance services, Vaughan Gething has, at times, shown why he's so highly thought of and it's a racing certainty he'll become a full minister in the Fifth Assembly.

Education & Skills

• Ministers : Leighton Andrews (2011-2013), Huw Lewis (2013-2016)
• Deputy Ministers : Jeff Cuthbert (2011-2013), Ken Skates (2013-2014), Julie James (2014-2016)

C+

A mixed bag though, broadly-speaking, Huw Lewis is leaving the Assembly on a political high. This area of policy hasn't perhaps got the critical attention it deserves in the Welsh media – aside from the PISA results and big changes like the Donaldson Review. It's fair to say there've been a number of big policy announcements through the Fourth Assembly, and exam results have gradually improved.

The Lib Dems can take some credit here for their Pupil Deprivation Grant – though it's probably going to be some time until the effectiveness of it is properly analysed. Money in education has been a major theme, with Labour committing to keeping schools budgets at 1% above any changes to the block grant (and it's believed they didn't keep that promise over the whole term). Meanwhile, the increasingly controversial tuition fee policy, while being well-meant, seems financially damaging in the medium to long term.

So although the raw numbers point towards improvement of sorts, there's been a bit too much knee-jerk tinkering – though the difference in attitudes between Leighton Andrews (more proactive and directly-influential) and Huw Lewis (more collaborative) was marked.

Environment, Natural Resources & Rural Affairs

• Ministers : John Griffiths (2011-2014), Alun Davies (2013-2014), Carl Sargeant (2014-2016)
• Deputy Ministers : Alun Davies (2011-2013), Rebecca Evans (2014-2016)

C+

The intentions are good but, as always with Welsh Labour, the actions weren't there in abundance. Wales' excellent record on recycling has held up, but there were a number of issues – particularly open-cast mining and fracking – where Carl Sargeant was very good at talking the talk but lacking any real bite.

The Welsh Government passed landmark legislation on planning and the environment – the latter committing Wales to meeting greenhouse gas reduction targets. Also, the intent of another "landmark" law on future generations/sustainable development was welcomed, but the implementation was a damp squib.

On rural affairs, there were several major developments with the first Deputy Minister, Alun Davies, picking a fight with the Supreme Court over agricultural wages, forcing a law through the Assembly using emergency legislation powers; a fight he ultimately won. Then he finally oversaw action on stray horses – which has been a particular problem in south west Wales – though again he used emergency powers to see the law though. His stint in the job – which polarised the farming community – came to a rather ignominious end.

His replacement, Rebecca Evans – one of the quietly impressive performers this term - faced with her own immediate problems, particularly a crisis in milk prices which prompted a very quick and efficient review of the dairy sector. It come up with a number of ideas such as a new leadership board and possible milk processing facility in south west Wales.

Local Government, Communities, Housing & Regeneration

• Ministers : Carl Sargeant (2011-2014), Huw Lewis (2013), Lesley Griffiths (2013-2016), Jeff Cuthbert (2013-2014), Leighton Andrews (2014-2016)
• Deputy Ministers : Vaughan Gething (2013-2014)

C+

The overarching issue here has been local government reorganisation as facilitated by the Williams Commission. As mentioned earlier this week, what the whole process has failed to do is properly determine what local government is and what is should be responsible for. The map should've been an after thought.

This group of ministers also oversaw one of the worst scandals of the term in the form of RIFW, though they made up for that somewhat with the less ambitious replacement scheme, Vibrant & Viable Places.

For the first time in post-devolution Wales a minister was given specific responsibility to address high levels of relative poverty, and to date – in the absence of any meaningful level to make an impact, like the benefits system – little progress has been made.

However, several major laws relating to housing have been passed, one of which makes major changes to homelessness provision, while the other outlines significant reforms to the private rental market. Whether there are enough houses being built in the first place is another matter. Also, Labour kept one of their key 2011 manifesto pledges by recruiting at least 500 extra PCSOs.

Culture, Heritage, Welsh Language & Sport

• Ministers & Deputy Ministers : Huw Lewis (2011-2013), John Griffiths (2013-2014), Carwyn Jones (2013-2016), Ken Skates (2014-2016)

C

Another area where, while not really doing anything wrong, the Welsh Government probably could've done more. There's provisional evidence that 2012 London Olympics have had a positive knock-on impact on sports participation, but whether that lasts without proper funding is up for debate. It's a similar situation with the arts in Wales; as it's seen as "low hanging fruit" by local authorities many arts schemes, particularly music, have been victims of cuts.

Elsewhere, concerns have been raised about Wales' place in the new BBC Charter and future of public service broadcasting – particularly the long-term future of S4C – as the decline in the Welsh print media continues. A lot's been said but, as it typical, very little has happened with the Welsh Government appearing toothless as broadcasting  powers are non-devolved.

One area where they've bared their teeth this term is heritage, with the passing of the Historic Environment Act being an attempt to afford more protection to monuments and historic buildings – though perhaps not going as far as it should've, with ministers wimping out of a merger between Cadw and the Royal Commission on Ancient Monuments.

The position of the Welsh language has been awkward – particularly since the 2011 census findings, as well as the decision by the First Minister to take direct responsibility for Welsh language policy in 2013. Nevertheless, Welsh was made an official language in the National Assembly (with equal status to English) for the first time, while a (large and perhaps pedantic) number of standards for Welsh in public services were introduced.

Opposition Leaders

Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central)

B- personally; B- party

It's been a clear period of personal and professional growth, and despite some suspect moments of his leadership, Andrew took to the role of Leader of the Opposition pretty well and can be relatively pleased with his performance this term. He isn't perfect, but he does occasionally rile the First Minister – though it's sometimes hard to tell whether he's a mouthpiece for the UK Government or not.

The Tories have gone big on health and have, in some parts of Wales, managed to sew some doubts in people's minds on certain aspects – though it all seems a little repetitive. Following the Wales Bill(s) and future devolution of income tax they can, to a certain degree, say they are a pro-devolution party, though the EU referendum perhaps threatens to cause divisions. After a good result at the 2015 Westminster election, both Andrew himself and his party have reason to be upbeat going into the Assembly election....that still doesn't mean Andrew's coming out of it as First Minister.

Leanne Wood (Plaid, South Wales Central)

B+ personally; C+ party

This term has seen Leanne Wood rise from being part of the fringe of Plaid's backbenches to one of the more well-known politicians in Wales. At a personal level that's an incredible achievement. Leanne has always come across as down to earth, if a little self-righteous, so I don't believe there's any overconfidence there and she has every reason to believe in herself considering her political journey. The real danger is if the rest of her party believe their own hype. That's only going to end in tears.

Plaid haven't set the world alight over the last five years. Despite worthy attempts to professionalise their front bench, the positive reforms have occurred behind the scenes with the development of a strong "Brand Plaid". I'll come back to this in more detail later on in the campaign, but the good news is that Plaid haven't gone backwards and have stopped the rot from 2011. Their problem is a lack of demonstrable forward momentum.

Kirsty Williams (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor)

A personally; B party

Kirsty Williams is, without doubt, an excellent AM and excellent party leader. She managed to draw some significant concessions from the Welsh Government and the Lib Dems have passed two laws, including the Nurse Staffing Levels Act. That should count as a real triumph considering Labour's reluctance to take on board any suggestion on health and it's something Lib Dem activists can take to voters.

The party do genuinely punch above their weight – I'm tired of saying that, but it's the truth – and they can be proud of their record in the Fourth Assembly. Hand on heart I say that none of the Lib Dems AMs deserve to be on the end of a kicking in a few weeks time, but it's coming and I doubt I'll be the only one wincing when steel-toe boot makes contact with Lib Dem backside.

Overall Verdict

If the big theme of next term will be the devolution of taxes, the big theme this term was the Assembly's new law-making powers following the 2011 referendum. By and large, AMs and Assembly staff have proven they're more than capable of handling those powers.

The laws themselves, however, have been a mixed bag, with some genuinely groundbreaking legislation introduced alongside some very vague or downright useless laws which will probably be repealed sooner rather than later – the Future Generations Act somes to mind. I would prefer a focus on quality over quantity of legislation next term; it's better to have 10-12 good laws than the 30 or so glib laws we've seen over the past five years.

Although the opposition have certainly caused problems for Labour this term, their fractured and disunited nature - mainly due to big ideological differences - has given Labour an easy ride. That looks set to continue in the Fifth Assembly. Until Labour's "right to rule" is properly challenged (as it was, but for the wrong reasons on Wednesday), the Assembly's stuck in a rut. Maybe, for the good of the country and the future of democracy in Wales, the main opposition parties will have to put some of their differences aside and work together on some aspects.

Lack of ambition, micromanagement, laziness, cronyism – Welsh Labour have them all in spades and displayed them all this term.

Their rule of Wales over the last five years - while not being a complete catastrophe, more a cosy marriage that neither partner has the guts to call off – can be summed up as, "not good enough". The problem for the rest of us - unless you actually support Labour - is that we seem depressingly comfortable with "not good enough."


Tomorrow, I'm going to "do something nice" (or perhaps not so nice) and conclude my look back at the Fourth Assembly by handing out my end of term "awards".

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Fourth Assembly In Focus : Education

Following the economy and health, my final in-depth look at policy during the Fourth Assembly goes into our classrooms and lecture theatres.

Major Policy Initiatives of the Fourth Assembly

The Donaldson Review – A major review, led by Prof. Graham Donaldson, into the national curriculum in Wales. The proposals mirror those applied in Scotland in 2010, though they're not expected to be fully rolled-out until 2021. They include the scrapping of key stages, the creation of six learning areas and requiring all teachers to have cross-curriculum competences in literacy, numeracy and IT (see also : Detention for Donaldson?). The goal is to create "ambitious, capable learners" who are "healthy and confident".

Schools Challenge Cymru & Regional Consortia – If there's one thing Huw Lewis likes it's new schemes and organisations. The first was aimed at raising standards at the 40 worst-performing schools in Wales by applying additional resources; indications from 2015's GCSE results are that there's been an improvement in the number of pupils achieving 5 good grades. The second scheme is supposed to lead school improvement and share best practice, but reports from Estyn and Wales Audit Office have painted a mixed picture due to uncertainty over their role and a lack of monitoring.

Literacy & Numeracy Tests/Framework & School Banding – Wales was one of the first home nations to scrap the controversial end of key stage SATS tests in 2004 alongside school league tables. Leighton Andrews effectively reintroduced them in 2013 as compulsory literacy and numeracy tests. This was joined by colour-coded school rankings. Both have been criticised by teaching unions; the first for marking rows and statistical issues, the second for causing school rankings to fluctuate wildly year-to-year. A report earlier this year also suggested the improvements sought by the framework could take several years to permeate through, with few indications of an impact so far.

Reorganisation of Colleges & Universities – A Welsh Government-led rationalisation of the further and higher education sectors resulted in several mergers which have created, amongst others, the University of South Wales, Trinty St Davids University (UWTSD), NPT Group, Coleg y Cymoedd and Cardiff & Vale College. It's unclear whether the upheaval caused by mergers has impacted staff or student morale, but it has prompted major capital investments in new campuses, such as Cardiff & Vale College in Butetown or the proposed new UWTSD campus in Swansea SA1.

Education Funding

Pupil spending per head - source

One of Labour's key election manifesto commitments in 2011 was to keep school spending at 1% above any changes to the block grant Westminster uses to fund Wales.

It's quite clear that although spending-per-head has risen over the course of the Fourth Assembly, in the last two years or so Labour probably didn't keep their promise, presumably as more money was diverted to the NHS or by double counting the pupil deprivation grant. Although there have been "real terms" cuts to the block grant, in cash terms it's increased modestly. Therefore, you would've expected schools spending to have risen in line with that throughout the term – but it's unclear whether it has or hasn't.

Elsewhere, the 21^st Century Schools programme has been maintained through the Fourth Assembly, though it's been scaled back and delayed from the original £1.4billion six-year programme announced in 2011, with the Finance Minister seeking non-profit distributive finance in 2014.

The other major scheme is the Liberal Democrats' Pupil Deprivation Grant (PDG), which pays schools £1,050 every pupil aged 5-15 who's eligible for free school meals. It's due to be increased again to £1,150 from 2016-17. There are also smaller payments for Foundation Phase pupils. In 2015-16 the grant totalled £72.4million. Although independent reviews have shown that the PDG has made a difference there've been concerns about how it's being spent.

I'm yet to be convinced that throwing money at problems actually fixes anything. The only area of government policy where that genuinely works is infrastructure, and we've been throwing money at the NHS for the best part of a decade without it really getting us anywhere. The same goes for schools; it comes down to the quality of teachers, class sizes, teacher workloads and the curriculum.

Exam Results

Key exam pass rates - source (GCSE), source (FSM), source (A-Level)

I suppose this is the key measure and there's clear good news, with pass rates steadily rising over the Fourth Assembly at GCSE level, while A-Level pass rates remain relatively high. The next round of PISA results are unlikely to be released before the end of the year, but that's where attentions were focused on a few years back and will be again for whoever succeeds Huw Lewis (see also : A slice of frozen PISA).

The percentage of pupils getting 5 A*-C grades at GCSE, including either English or Welsh and mathematics (Level 2 threshold), is close to hitting 60%. Meanwhile, the functionally useless pass rate marker for A-Level remained at around 97%.

The link between poverty and poor educational attainment has been well established and, not unsurprisingly, the GCSE Level 2 pass rate for those eligible for free school meals remains significantly below average – although Level 2 pass rates have increased in line with GCSE passes for everyone else, and the gap has closed by around 2-3% over the last five exam cycles (see also : AMs demand action to close education gap).

Schools Challenge Cymru was established provide extra help to those schools which are defined as struggling for whatever reason, and some of these 40 schools selected for the programme have seen progress on GCSE results. It's too early to tell whether the scheme as a whole will be a success or not, but there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic.

Further Education

With the ever growing emphasis on work-based learning/apprenticeships this term, you would've thought that the further education sector will be going through a period of growth and investment. In many respects it has – but unfortunately the relevant statistics have only been collected/reported for two years.

What they point to is a decreasing number of college students but an increase in the number of work-based learners and apprenticeships (source). Behind the scenes, however, there's been quite a bit of upheaval (as touched on earlier) with college mergers being pushed through and sizable cuts to the further education budget in some of the budgets passed by the Assembly this term.

So the future looks like being one of fewer, bigger colleges and that brings into question the future of some of Wales' smaller institutions, like Coleg Ceredigion and perhaps even the likes of Bridgend College and Coleg Sir Gar. With some local authorities actively, or actively considering, closure of sixth forms then the role of FE colleges could be about to become greater. Any incoming government will have to ensure there's some focus on the knock-on impact such policies might have on the sector in terms of things like staff, facilities and transport.

Universities

One of the headline, and most contentious, policies of the Fourth Assembly is the tuition fee subsidy, where Welsh-domiciled students only pay up to £4,000 a year regardless of where they choose to study, with the Welsh Government making up the rest. Means-tested living grants have also been made available to those from low income families.

The spirit of the policy is perfectly correct, but ever since the previous Conservative-Lib Dem UK Government lifted the cap on tuition fees, it's clear the policy is becoming increasingly burdensome on the Welsh budget, and is widening the university funding gap between Wales and England – currently estimated to be as high as £115million – while the policy itself was recently estimated to have cost £235million (see also : Welsh tuition fee policy under scrutiny).

Nonetheless, the wrangling over fees and university finance hasn't deterred people from going to university. The number of Welsh-domiciled undergraduates has stayed broadly at the same level of around 78,000 a year since 2011-12 (source), however, while in 2011/12 46% of Welsh-domiciled students studied at a Welsh university, that's dropped slightly to 45% in 2013/14 – presumably because of the tuition fee policy.

It's also worth pointing out that the vast majority of Welsh-domiciled postgraduates who are still based in the UK study in Wales (67%).

Welsh-medium Education

Labour set no concrete targets for the number of pupils educated in Welsh in their 2011 manifesto and they're lucky they didn't.

Percentage of pupils taught mainly or wholly in Welsh - source

Broadly-speaking the numbers of pupils educated in Welsh has increased over the last five years, but there was a surprise dip in the number of secondary school WM pupils in 2014-15, presumably because of a general drop in roll numbers at that age group. Unsurprisingly, most WM pupils live in Y Fro Gymraeg (Gwynedd, Anglesey, Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire), with only Rhondda Cynon Taf and Cardiff having any significant figures outside this area.

There are 36 fewer Welsh-medium schools in 2015 than in 2010. Meanwhile, the number of teachers qualified to teach through Welsh over the same period has remained relatively stable (source)– so it's safe to say Welsh-medium education has expanded at the bottom, but contracted at the top.

Welsh language exam results - source (full course), source (short course)

Next, it's performance in Welsh. The most notable surprise is that GCSE A*-C pass rates in Welsh second language have overtaken Welsh first language. There are a number of possible explanations. Pupils taking the second language full course are going to be more committed than short course students, while as it's taught as a second language it's going to be easier than being taught as a first language (which will be more in-depth). However, pass rates for Welsh first language are, generally, higher than English language (which is also taught in WM schools).

The Education Workforce

The education workforce - source

The only things really worth taking from this are the decrease in the number of headteachers and the growing numbers of teaching assistants.

The latter can probably be explained by the roll out of the Foundation Phase (see also : Foundation Fazed) where a lower staff:pupil ratio is mandated – so these figures aren't unexpected. The problems will start to arise when teaching assistants start teaching, and trade unions have claimed assistants have been asked to stand in for fully-qualified teachers.

Like other parts of the public sector, the teaching workforce is ageing and it's unclear whether there are enough new teachers coming through to take their place. Teaching has an increasingly bad reputation because of the pressures of the job and bureaucracy. Judging by the number of vacancies advertised there appears to be particular problems in recruiting English, maths and (what I presume is Key Stage 3) science teachers (source).

The fall in the number of headteachers could be explained by a simple fall in the number of schools – through closure of small rural schools, mergers or "federated schools". Nevertheless, schools need some sort of leadership and it's slightly worrying that, with the falling number of headteachers, the careers of some promising leaders might stall.

Conclusions

If Labour's record on the economy is broadly "good", and their record on health is broadly "bad" then their education record is mixed with clear good and bad points.

In terms of the good news, exam pass rates are improving year on year, a healthy proportion of young people are going to university and there's been extra help to close the gap in performance between poorer and wealthier pupils.

The PISA scores in 2012 (A slice of frozen PISA) perhaps caused some unnecessary panic – though we're unlikely to find out 2015's results until the end of 2016. The other bad news would be that the Welsh Government haven't really lived up to any non-binding promises they made on Welsh-medium education, while the gap between the best-performing and worst-performing pupils remains dauntingly large. It's also becoming clear current tuition fee policy is untenable.

Like health, the last thing teachers are going to want to hear are more proposals from political parties for "major reforms"; the Donaldson reforms are going to be significant in their own right.

Teachers need to be given a bit of breathing room and existing reforms need a chance to properly bed in; but I'm worried that if there's another set of bad PISA results – or some knock on impact on schools as a result of local government reorganisation - we're going to end up with politicians running around like headless chickens again demanding answers and immediate action on issues that often take years, if not decades, to resolve themselves. We deserve cool heads on this.

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Fourth Assembly In Focus : Health & Care

Last time I focused on the economy – which no doubt would've brought some smiles to any Labour faces reading this as it was broadly good news. I think it's time to wipe any smug grins away.

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Road to Somewhere?

With the latest section of the A465 dualling project set to fully open soon,
it's worth reflecting on the short-term and long-term impact.
(Pic : a465brynmawr2tredegar.co.uk)

The latest section in the long-running project to dual the Heads of the Valleys road (A465) between Abergavenny and Hirwaun is due to fully open imminently (it's been partially open for a few weeks now). Section 3, which runs between Tredegar and Brynmawr, has cost £158million, with £80million of that coming from the EU.

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Network Rail - Taking the Welsh Government for a ride?

The project to redouble a section of track between Wrexham and Chester is an example
of Network Rail over-promising and under-delivering when it comes to Welsh railways.
(Pic : rmweb.co.uk)

Network Rail's relationship with devolved Wales has always been somewhat awkward. They now have a department responsible for rail infrastructure in Wales, but they're not directly answerable to either the Welsh Government or National Assembly.

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Metro a Go Go

The Welsh Government have announced a £600million second phase of the Cardiff capital region Metro,
as well as a new not-for-profit company to run the Wales & Borders rail franchise from 2018.
(Pic : Vale of Glamorgan Council)

As you probably already know, Business & Economy Minister, Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower) made a major announcement on the future of the South Wales Metro on Tuesday (30^th June).

The Minister told the National Assembly her department has made "significant progress" on the Metro and Wales & Borders franchise (Future of the Wales & Borders Rail Franchise). Phase 1 of the Metro is already being delivered via capacity enhancements to the Ebbw Vale line and the recent opening of Ebbw Vale Town station.

Highlights from the announcement (clip) include :

• The Metro will be a high quality integrated transport system (see also : Assembly Integrated Transport Inquiry), with rapid, frequent and reliable rail services linking in with the bus network.
• Passengers will be able to move seamlessly from one form of transport to another using integrated payment methods (i.e a Welsh Oyster Card).
• South Wales mainline electrification "must be delivered in line with previous announcements". A procurement process for Valley Lines electrification will start next year, with work possibly beginning in 2017-18.
• The Metro and Wales & Borders franchise will be run as a single contract and as a "not-for-dividend" company (Welsh Government Transport Company). The Welsh Transport Company has already been incorporated, and aims to emulate Transport for London. It will probably be run as a concession with a profit cap, meaning more money will be available to invest in services.
• The Welsh Government are "keeping an open mind" on the details of how the Metro would be delivered (i.e. tram-trains, heavy rail, trams), but there are "red lines" :
• no low-quality rolling stock
• capacity and reliability must improve
• efficiency must increase to allow more frequent services
• Local authorities will help shape the final version of the Metro through their Local Development Plans.
• Extra powers need to be devolved, particularly bus regulation.
• Phase 2 of the Metro will see investment of between £500-600 million by 2020. £125million has been secured from the UK Department of Transport, while £150million is being sought from the EU Regional Development Fund. "Good progress" has been made finding other capital funds. Local authorities will be able to draw some funding from developer (S106) contributions.

Shadow Economy Minister, William Graham (Con, South Wales East), greatly welcomed the announcement (clip), saying it would improve communication and social cohesion, providing a "catalyst for the capital region". He was particularly pleased about the rolling stock commitment, but wanted assurances it would be delivered on time and on budget, as well as details on the fare structure and the impact Metro would have on the M4 Newport bypass.

The Minister said rolling stock was a key issue raised by interested parties, describing current trains as "absolutely appalling". She said the not-for-dividend model could lead to changes in fare structures, though consultation on the final Metro routes would continue. Transport models showed the Metro wouldn't make much difference to M4 traffic and she would share this with the relevant Assembly committee.

Plaid Cymru's economy spokesperson, Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid, Ynys Môn), said the Metro investment and M4 projects shouldn't make other regions feel they're being left out (clip), asking for a final estimated capital cost. He also asked if the M4 black route was holding back investment in the Metro and wanted assurances the Valleys would benefit economically so the impact isn't concentrated in Cardiff.

The Minister told him it's an "aspirational project that needs to be delivered", but it was clear the industry were "up to the the challenge of an integrated franchise". She said 42 companies had expressed interest, and rolling stock companies were looking for manufacturing sites in Wales. She stressed that the Metro wasn't just for Cardiff but the wider capital region, but it was up to local authorities to look at possible new station sites. A forthcoming new All-Wales Transport Plan will make clear commitments outside SE Wales.

Mick Antoniw AM (Lab, Pontypridd) described the project as "inspirational and aspirational" as well as economically and socially transformational (clip). He asked specific questions on the Beddau rail link and massive housing proposals in the Taff-Ely area, also whether there had been further discussions with the European Investment Bank (EIB)?

It was confirmed that Finance Minister, Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan) was working with the EIB. The Minister said the map was a "first stab" and the final proposals will be worked upon, with more detail in the autumn. She stressed the importance of linking housing and industrial areas to public transport, going as far as suggesting planning permission should be refused where there isn't a proper transport assessment.

With much of the focus on rail, there were concerns buses were being
overlooked despite carrying more passengers than trains annually.
(Pic : Wales Online)

Lib Dem economy and transport spokesperson, Eluned Parrott AM (Lib Dem, South Wales Central), said there was much to agree with (clip), but several maps had emerged over the years without a "definitive" final map. Costs can't be properly evaluated without one, while passengers, investors and businesses want to know what the final Metro will look like. Eluned was concerned that rail was taking too much priority over buses and active travel. She asked if the Welsh Government Transport Company would have powers to borrow independent of government (like any other business), why there was an integrated contract (she believes the Metro and rail franchise should be kept separate) and what had changed to make smart ticketing possible now when it was supposed to be introduced by 2014?

The Minister said as there were too many technical questions – an example is given where the Caerphilly Tunnel might have to close for lengthy periods during electrification works – the Welsh Government had to go to the market to get opinions on what needs to be done first. The integrated franchise makes it more attractive to investors as it's a big contract and she wants to avoid having different contracts and arrangements which have "caused chaos" on the rail network elsewhere.

John Griffiths AM (Lab, Newport East) asked for an update on passenger services between Ebbw Vale and Newport (clip) as well as the format of park and ride facilities in Monmouthshire. He also stressed the importance of affordable fares as a priority for those with strained finances.

Edwina said the Welsh Government have "got to look at fares", and suggested that new park and rides could be multi-story car parks as opposed to smaller 30-40 space car parks. On Ebbw Vale-Newport services, timetable studies are underway and there would be an update in the autumn.

Leader of the Opposition, Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central), wanted guarantees that the project would be at an advanced stage by 2020 (clip).

Edwina said it would be the "start of a system", but won't be "all singing, all dancing" by 2020. She did, however, appreciate the cross-party support.

Julie Morgan AM (Lab, Cardiff North) asked if projected population growth in Cardiff had been taken into account (clip), whether there had been discussions with Cardiff Council on how the new bus station would fit in and how the public would be involved?

The Minister welcomed news on the bus station, saying population growth has to be taken into account. On bus services, she said Wales needs powers over bus regulation. Many of the rail groups she's worked with "had a better understanding of timetables than Arriva", adding there had been no final decision on the role of the Cardiff city region with regard the Metro.

Alun Davies AM (Lab, Blaenau Gwent) said that the Metro would "drive sustainable growth in the heads of the valleys region", but too many stops would make the service less valuable and it should be seen as an inter-urban service rather than a commuter service. (clip) He asked if there were timescales on Ebbw Vale frequency enhancement and extensions to Abertillery, and how Network Rail's route plans would be factored in? Edwina said there would be a further update on works in the autumn and the relationship with Network Rail will be discussed to make sure they're working to the same agenda.

Finally, Nick Ramsay AM (Con, Monmouth) said the latest map had connections to Ebbw Vale and Chepstow but not Monmouth itself (clip). The Minister said initial discussions on including Monmouth had taken place, and it's on the agenda for an upcoming meeting with the leader of Monmouthshire Council.

Call me Nostradumbass?
(Pic : Me, click to enlarge)

I wrote The Welsh Metro in March 2011, about a year before the original announcement of the project was made. It consistently remains one of my most popular blogs. My speculative "Capital Connect"  map (above) is even similar to the one produced for the Metro project a few years later - it's a case of the potential being obvious, I'm not suggesting I had any influence.

I'm delighted there's some real progress being made, but I'm going to be nothing more than cautiously optimistic until there are shovels in the ground. We've had a lot of talk, and a lot of involvement by consultants and committees so far, but little action.

The most positive announcements are confirmation that there would be a smart ticketing system, rolling stock will be upgraded (with hints they could be replaced by new build trains in the longer term) and that both the rail franchise and the Metro will be run as a not-for-profit – which means, potentially, a greater focus on service investment instead of profit-making.

Despite this, as Eluned Parrott pointed out we still don't have a final map of the project (in particular bus rapid transit routes) and we still don't know what the Metro would look like – Will there be trams? Will it be a heavy rail S-Bahn system (as it is currently)? How will buses and cycling be properly integrated? There's still quite a lot of work to do, so this isn't a "green light" but still a big step forward.

Also, "South Wales Metro" is a bit of a misnomer. It should probably be called Cardiff Capital Region Metro. That shouldn't take away anything from the announcement, but Wales is Wales and if someone can find something moan about they will moan about it.

There's scope for some sort of integrated transport system in NE Wales and Merseyside. Plus, with the bendy buses/FTR being withdrawn from Swansea, there's the potential to explore a tram system along the same route, perhaps utilising existing freight-only rail lines to include Port Talbot, Neath and the Neath Valley. That's one for the medium to long-term though.

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Welsh Budget 2015-16

Yesterday, Finance Minister, Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan), introduced the draft budget for 2015-16 to the National Assembly.

The details are available here, and – as usual – I'm comparing the overall changes to the supplementary budget passed in June 2014 (pdf), which I believe is a more accurate reflection of what's actually being spent and where. Other commentators and mainstream media outlets have other methods. The really important document is the budget spending tables (pdf) – which detail the line-by-line spending plans.

Department	Draft Budget 2015-16	Change from 2014-15 Supplementary Budget plans (total spending)
Health & Social Services	£6,818million	+£241million
Local Government	£4,428million	-£194million
Education & Skills	£2,054.3million	+£18.9million
Economy, Science & Transport	£1,157.3million	+£30.5million*
Communities & Tackling Poverty	£737.5million	+£69.7million**
Natural Resources	£407.3million	-£32.8million
Central Administration	£328.4million	-£19.7million

* Sport, Culture and Heritage budgets now fall under Economy, Science & Transport.
**Housing and Regeneration budgets have been attached to the Communities & Tackling Poverty portfolio.

All in all, everything's similar to last year.

The Winners

Are Welsh Labour chucking money at NHS problems again
when policy might be the bigger issue?
(Pic : Yahoo Money)

In short, the NHS....again. They were one of the big winners last year too and it hasn't really made much of a difference. That's telling me problems in the NHS are coming down to government and local health board policy as much as the money.

Health services will be getting a boost totalling £425million over the next two years, with the vast bulk of that this year – some £235million – coming in to deliver core NHS services. The Food Standards Agency also gets a moderate £490,000 boost.

The budgets for the major public inspectorates in Wales – Estyn, Healthcare Inspectorate Wales, Care & Social Service Inspectorate – have been frozen, while there's a £100,000 boost to domestic violence programmes – which will receive at least £4.1million in total this year.

There's been a capital boost to housing programmes, with an extra £30million available to improve the supply and quality of affordable housing, £10million of that going towards bringing empty properties back into use.

In one of the few economic development areas to remain unscathed, science programmes have received an extra £2.4million. Also, a new discount travel scheme for 16-18 year olds is being launched with an initial budget of £5million, perhaps to offset cuts to school transport for sixth formers  and HE students by local authorities (as proposed in Bridgend and elsewhere). There's also an extra £30.4million in capital funding for new road and rail schemes.

Historic monuments get an extra £2.6million in day-to-day funding, offset by a £725,000 cut in capital funding.

There's been a significant boost to funding for education standards - £110million (though I'm not sure if it's a churning of current spending or not). Welsh language education has seen a £4.1million boost (though funding for the Welsh language itself has been cut by £400,000). The capital funding for schools has been frozen.

There's a £6.2million boost to the planning system, probably a result of the forthcoming Planning Bill (more on that from me next week, hopefully). There's also a £7million boost to climate change capital budgets.

The Losers

Local Government has been hit by sharp cuts yet again, though
perhaps not as badly as last year.
(Pic : Wales Online)

Local Government gets battered....again. There's an £82.8million cut to the core funding to local authorities, but it's less than the £128million cuts last year. There's also a £1.8million cut to collaboration budgets, which is a real surprise considering the Welsh Government are pushing for voluntary mergers.

The WLGA have issued another gloomy prediction that cuts could lead to "comprehensive service failures". The threat posed to services like libraries, the arts and community facilites is stark.

Fire and rescue services see a £1.75million cut to revenue and capital budgets, possibly due to the reorganisation of services that's currently taking place.

Despite the headlines, there are significant cuts to the health and social service budget too – most notably a £6.4million cut to targeted NHS services, a £5million cut to hospice support, a £2.9million cut to immunisation programmes (which seems incredibly stupid) and a £5.5million cut to children and adult social services.

Programmes aimed at tackling poverty have also been hit to the tune of £3.3million, offset by a £2million boost to capital programmes. Supported housing sees a £6.4million cut (these cuts were partially suspended in the Plaid-Lib Dem deal last year). Housing regeneration schemes have also been cut by £1.5million.

There are a raft of cuts across economic development and transport, mostly offset with capital funding boosts – a £4.7million cut to entrepreneurship, £5.3million cut to innovation, £1.7million cuts to IT infrastructure (but £10million extra capital funding), a £2.5million cut to trunk roads (and a £30million capital funding cut).

One of the biggest losers here was sustainable travel – getting it to the tune of £23.3million in its revenue budget (but receiving an extra £29.6million in capital funds for new projects). Libraries and museums get a modest £525,000 cut to budgets (offset by an extra £500,000 in new capital funding).

Funding for the school curriculum has been hit to the tune of £88million, and there's another cut to post-16 education (£24.1million). Funding for skilled workforce programmes has been cut by £11.2million. There've also been sizable cuts to education participation programmes amounting to £13.3million (offset by a boost to post-16 learner support).

Natural resources has been hit fairly hard too. There's a £7.4million cut to Bovine TB programmes, a £4.6million cut to the climate change budget and a £4.5million cut to the environment budget generally (mostly falling on Natural Resources Wales presumably).

As you might expect, the Welsh Government is trimming its own hair too, with cuts to the central administration budget, which include a £2million to its own running costs, and a £1.8million cut to central programmes like invest to save.

Kirsty Williams 233,000,000 Plaid Cymru 0

Plaid Cymru's budget pull-out could also turn out to be as significant as the announcement itself - but only if Leanne Wood can convince the Lib Dems to follow suit. Although the Lib Dems aren't happy either, it looks like they're going to continue negotiations. So it's nothing more than a statement of principle for now.
- See more at: http://oggybloggyogwr.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/newport-m4-smell-glove.html#sthash.06akrz7m.dpuf

Has Plaid Cymru's "principled stand" on the Newport bypass been a
strategic mistake the Welsh Lib Dems have taken advantage of?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Labour don't have a majority in the National Assembly – something they always seem to forget – so to pass the budget they need to agree a deal with at least one member of the opposition.

A Labour agreement with the Tories was always a non-starter, but – for giggles – I'd imagine their price for supporting the budget would've been a Keogh-style investigation into the Welsh NHS. The extra cash for the NHS was welcomed, but Shadow Health Minister, Darren Millar (Con, Clwyd West) said, "it's all too little, too late".

July 17th : "Plaid Cymru's budget pullout could also turn out to be as significant as the announcement itself, but only if Leanne Wood can convince the Lib Dems to follow suit."

As you might remember, Plaid Cymru withdrew from budget negotiations after the Welsh Government approved the M4 Newport bypass. Petulant or principled? A little of both. Last time around they managed to get extra funding for intermediate care and supported housing. This time they got bugger all because they're trying to....what exactly?

The funding for the Newport bypass won't come for a while yet, so I'm not sure what point they're trying to prove now other than that they really, really don't like the idea (they debated it again today - you can watch it here). We get it. At least they can't be accused of hypocrisy.

Unfortunately, this hasn't been handled well from the start - by both sides - but it's as though Plaid are turning into the Green Party on steroids.

Unless something dramatic happens on the M4 front - or they get into government themselves - Plaid are (effectively) locked in to opposing every budget for the next decade because the bypass will probably show up in every budget for that long a period of time.

So the Welsh Government were left with only one option, and before the draft budget was published, they'd reached an agreement reportedly worth £233million with the Welsh Lib Dems to commit extra funding to the Pupil Deprivation Grant (which will rise from £918 to £1,050 per pupil), and complete the £60million Eastern Bay Link Road (which will link Cardiff Bay to eastern Cardiff and the M4).

The Lib Dems (supposedly) oppose the M4 bypass too, managing to get a caveat not to commence construction before the 2016 Assembly elections. Construction was very unlikely (if not impossible) to start before then anyway, so the Welsh Lib Dems can support the budget and get some goodies without supporting the bypass. That's how you do this the smart way.

In addition, they've also secured £10million towards an unspecified transport project in north Wales (which seemed a bit odd to me) and £5.3million for Llandrindod Wells Hospital.

Although the party's prospects might not be looking good overall, they've chalked up quite a bit over the last few years in terms of funding commitments, while the Eastern Bay Link road is arguably as important as sorting out the Newport problems. Well played, Kirsty.

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"Thank you for flying Ieuan Air...."

Poor value for money? Or vital transport link?
The Anglesey-Cardiff "Ieuan Air" service has its critics.
(Pic : Wales Online)

The direct air service between Cardiff and Anglesey has been a political football since it was first introduced. Some consider it a vital public service air link; others consider it a complete waste of money.

The National Assembly's Public Accounts Committee undertook a short inquiry into its future role, as well as evaluating its current commercial performance due to the high levels of public subsidy it receives and falls in passenger numbers (pdf).

The Committee's summarised recommendations were that :

• Data collection should be improved - preferably using an independent source - to avoid discrepancies between what the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and airline operators report.
• The Welsh Government should undertake research on who uses the air-link and why, as well as research into the long-term passenger number trends.
• Any future tender for the air-link should include comprehensive marketing plans, and the Welsh Government should try to attract as many bidders as possible in order to maximise the benefits and opportunities of the air-link.

Background & Current Performance

£9million has been spent on the air link since 2007, including
£1.5million on terminal facilities at RAF Valley.
(Pic : anglesey-today.com)

The Anglesey-Cardiff air-link was established in May 2007 (before Ieuan Wyn Jones even became a government minister), and is currently operated by two companies. The marketing and ticket booking services are provided by Manx company, Citywing, while the air service itself is provided by Links Air, based on Humberside. The current contract to provide the service runs until December 2014. The service runs twice a day in both directions during weekdays.

The Welsh Government subsidises the service under the EU's Public Service Obligation (PSO) rules, which allows governments to subsidise services that are key to economic development but are otherwise commercial unviable. The subsidy currently amounts to £1.2million per year.

The Ministry of Defence are also involved as they run the RAF Valley terminus of the flight. Anglesey Council and a company called Europa also fund/run the terminal services at the airbase.

The total cost of the air service from May 2007 to March 2013 was just over £9million. This sum includes the £1.5million to build the passenger terminal at RAF Valley and various grants to Anglesey Council.

65,703 passengers used the service over the same time period, and the subsidy per passenger is £86. Although passenger numbers exceeded expectations in the first two years, they've since declined by 12.5% between 2011-2013.

There were differences between the passenger numbers reported by the CAA and those provided by the Welsh Government (via the service operator) – the latter's numbers being higher than the CAA's. However, since 2012 these discrepancies have become smaller and didn't cause the Committee any great concern.

As for the reasons why passenger numbers are falling, the University of South Wales' Martin Evans said that passengers were "price sensitive" and even the slightest increase in fares put them off. The Welsh Government, however, pointed towards figures that showed an increase in the number of advanced bookings and overall passenger numbers.

The Welsh Government have commissioned ARUP to review the marketing of the air service, fares strategy and support to maximise passenger numbers. The contract currently grants the operators £20-25,000 per year to market the service. The Committee believe more needs to be done - such as advertising connecting bus services - and all of that should be part of the tendering process.

In terms of the type of passenger, it was said between half and two-thirds of passengers were business passengers, but there was no data on how many of these were public sector workers. The Committee were concerned because public sector journeys would ultimately be paid for entirely by taxpayers, weakening the subsidy's value for money case.

With regard value for money, there hasn't been an evaluation of the benefits of the air service since 2008, and without this information it might be more difficult for the Welsh Government to justify further subsidy. Some of this will be explored further in the ARUP review, which will give a better idea of who uses the service and why, but it was argued it might be difficult to tie economic data to the service.

The Contract

Following the 2011 Cork air crash, there've been concerns raised
at EU level about "virtual airline" arrangements for air services.
(Pic : RTE)

There's a slightly complicated back story as to how the current operators got the franchise.

When the contract was up for re-tender in 2010, the only bidder was Highland Airways. But because the Welsh Government had concerns over the financial stability of the company, they rejected Highland Airways offer and put out an "emergency tender" which was awarded to Manx2.

However, because Manx2 were a "virtual airline" (they outsource all operational roles), this fell foul of EU PSO rules, meaning another company had to be on board at the same time – hence why there are two companies involved in running the air link.

As for the relevance of this, an accident at Cork Airport in February 2011 – which killed 6 people – involved an aircraft operated by the same company Manx2 used to provide the Anglesey-Cardiff link (FLM). The company has since had its aviation accreditation withdrawn, and this dual-company arrangement has been flagged up to the European Commission as a concern which should be taken into consideration when awarding any new Anglesey-Cardiff contract in December.

The Committee also had concerns about the timing of the tender and contract award, which is supposed to go out (quite literally) now if it's going to be awarded in December. The Committee were worried that the timescales are too tight and there's little room for contingencies.

The Future of the Air-Link

Due to MOD restrictions, the air link can only operate 5 days a week.
(Pic : Royal Air Force)

The Welsh Government haven't given a clear commitment on whether the service will be re-tendered or not. However, the Committee come up with several potential options for any future services.

• Increasing the size of the aircraft – The current aircraft has 18 seats, but previous tenders included 29-50 seater aircraft. The size of the aircraft was reduced by the Welsh Government due to concerns over air passenger duty and because RAF Valley doesn't meet UK guidelines for passenger aircraft bigger than 18 seats. Increasing the size of the aircraft would mean fewer passengers would be turned away and, if marketed correctly, could boost incomes and make it more commercially viable.
• More stops? – This might mean adding an extra stop or two (Harwarden in Flintshire and Caernarfon airport were mooted). Harwarden was ruled out due to competition from rail, while Caernarfon would need lots of work to bring it up to spec. A third stop could also put off passengers as it would increase journey times.
• 7 day a week service – At the moment only a 5 day service is possible due to military restrictions, and any moves to change this will need to be discussed with the RAF.
• Changes to state aid rules – PSO rules were recently changed which mean there are fewer constraints on what the Welsh Government can or can't do. An example was given where the Cardiff-Anglesey aircraft could be used to make commercial flights from Cardiff-Paris in the downtime between Anglesey flights.

A bit of afters

The inquiry has been criticised for being "too simplistic", and it failed to
draw comparisons with other PSO services in the UK and rest of Europe.
(Pic : via Wikipedia)

As you might've heard, Committee member Mike Hedges AM (Lab, Swansea East)  got a bit shirty, describing the inquiry as "superficial and simplistic". The Committee only called four witnesses - who all gave evidence on a single day – and received just five pieces of written evidence, three of which were from the same person. That's not unusual for a "short inquiry".

I've read my fair share of committee reports over the last three years or so. The lack of any comparison with other PSO services in the UK (like those in the Scottish Highlands & Islands) was a glaring omission. Mike Hedges was right. I don't think it would've really changed the overall conclusions, but without those comparisons it's hard to say whether the air link is truly under-performing or not.

The Lib Dems have long called for the service to be scrapped, and chimed in again this time, describing the air link as "wasteful and polluting".

The air link currently reduces the NW Wales-Cardiff journey time from 4-5 hours (by car or train) to around 90 minutes. If the service were well-used it could be considered an absolute bargain. The £1.2million per year saved by scrapping the service would do diddly squat to improve north-south transport links, and the Lib Dems have consistently failed to say what they would do with such an enormous bounty. The cost of doubling the Wrexham-Chester railway line is £44million alone.

If money were no object, ideally we would build a floating runway in the Menai Straits off Bangor. That would be the optimum place for a NW Wales-Cardiff air link, and being right next to Snowdonia should provide a steady stream of tourist traffic too. However, like it or not, RAF Valley – despite being poorly located – is the only suitable facility.

It looks as though the air link has an uncertain future, and criticisms about its performance stand up. There's just a danger that through this inquiry we only know the price of it whilst ignoring its value.

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