Why was the Commonwealth Games bid ditched?

Not coming to a town or city near you....
(Pic : ITV Wales)

Towards the end of July, Economy & Infrastructure Secretary, Ken Skates (Lab, Clwyd South), announced that a speculative Welsh bid to host the 2026 Commonwealth Games would not go ahead following a feasibility study - a 12-page summary of which was released on July 26^th (pdf).

The study concluded the cost of hosting the event would've been somewhere between £1.32-1.54billion. The present uncertainty surrounding Brexit and its impact on public finances was blamed for the rejection, while opposition politicians accused the Welsh Government of a lack of ambition.

Bid Options & Costs Overview

An idea of what venues were proposed for the all-Wales option.

• See also : Could Wales host a Commonwealth Games?; The Main Event

All-Wales Bid

• Bangor, Colwyn Bay and Wrexham would've hosted athletics, diving, badminton, beach volleyball, rugby 7s, table tennis and mountain biking between them.
• Aberystwyth would've hosted squash and Llandrindod Wells would've hosted bowls.
• Swansea would've hosted hockey and swimming.
• All other events – including the opening and closing ceremonies – would've been spread in and around Cardiff and the south Wales valleys.
• Wrexham, Swansea and Newport would've housed athletes with some accommodation provided in Bangor and Aberystwyth too.
• The bid wouldn't have satisfied the Commonwealth Games host criteria as they prefer to keep it in a focused area/central games hub to create "a positive social event". It would've also created disjointed events with "negative athlete experiences".
• Potential cost : £1.3-1.54billion.

Joint North-East/South-East Bid

• Archery, table tennis, boxing and beach volleyball would've been hosted in the Wrexham/Flintshire area.
• Diving, swimming, triathlon, hockey, squash and mountain biking would've been hosted in Swansea and at Margam Park.
• Newport would've hosted the athletes village and athletics. All other sports would've been spread in and around Cardiff and the south Wales valleys, with Cardiff hosting the opening and closing ceremonies.
• Reduced costs compared to an all-Wales bid and would create "two lively hubs". There was the potential for a legacy for Glyndwr University in particular. Nevertheless, the report authors aren't convinced a split bid could win a host vote.
• Potential cost : £1.2-£1.45billion.

Southern Wales Bid

• A Cardiff-only bid wasn't considered feasible due to a lack of venues.
• Most sports would've been concentrated in Cardiff, Newport and Swansea, with Newport hosting the athletics and athletes village. The furthest northern venue would've been full bore shooting at Sennybridge.
• It would be the "optimum bid" due to the compact location, but it would be difficult to see any all-Wales legacy benefits.
• Potential cost : £1.1-1.32billion.

A significant chunk of the costs – about £218million – would've been needed to: ensure there was an all-Wales benefit, fund infrastructure improvements and develop elite athletes to win medals. Delivery of the games themselves would've cost somewhere between £334-400million, with an additional £212million required on top of that build new venues. Add security, the cost of the bid itself and contingencies (24% at 2016 prices) and it takes it over £1billion.

For want of comparison, the 2014 Glasgow games cost ~£543million, while the next two games – being hosted by Gold Coast, Australia (2018) and Durban, South Africa (2022) – are expected to cost A$2.4billion (£1.4billion) and R6.5billion (£344million) respectively.

An All-Wales bid is out of the question and it was crazy to propose it in the first place, but it could be hosted on an even tighter regional basis as long as the venues are within 45 minutes to an hour of each other. For example: Cardiff-Newport, Swansea Bay (Swansea, NPT, Llanelli) or Deeside (Flintshire, Wrexham & A55 corridor).

In terms of the economic impact, it's accepted there would be a short term boost comparable to any other government investment on a similar scale; but there's "little evidence" the games would have a positive impact on the wider economy over a longer time frame. There's also "no clear evidence" that major events boost physical activity rates or sports participation.

The only things I would pick up on are that I'm not convinced by the argument that there aren't enough venues in the Cardiff (or Cardiff-Newport) area to host the games, while a 24% contingency seems pessimistic and artificially inflates the figures.

The Right Call?

There's always a big risk attached to hosting major sporting events
 - and the Commonwealth Games creates white elephants just as the Olympics does.
(Pic : Tribune India)

£1.54billion is a piss-take for a fortnight of running, swimming and cycling. I'm sure if the costs were comparable to Glasgow (under £600million) - and all events were hosted in or near a single city as opposed to regionally - it would've gone to the next stage.

Even if the costs were to be spread over a long timescale, any single project with a bill passing seven-figures in Wales - that isn't related to infrastructure - has "don't do it" written all over it in big flashing neon letters.

The figures cited in the report sound like a high estimate but are within the realms of possibility once inflation and currency values are taken into account (both of which will be directly impacted by Brexit). Plus, there's the up-front capital requirements such as: an athletics stadium, an "athletes village" (or several of them), the conversion of existing venues into competition-ready formats, accommodation for spectators, training facilities/camps and transport improvements.

Let's be clear. There are very real impacts from Brexit that will need to be factored in to public policy because it's going to be a bumpy ride (....but not The Apocalypse). Some big spend projects will either have to be ditched altogether or return to the drawing board.

At this moment in time we don't know how the Welsh Government's budget will change (taking on responsibility for agricultural subsidies, for example) or the medium to longer term impact Brexit will have on the strength and stability of the pound – which would definitely complicate a project that uses multiple suppliers such as a Commonwealth Games.

Once the dust settles, a future Welsh Government can revisit the idea of a Commonwealth Games bid for the 2030s focused on a single city or city region. At present they should be prioritising projects that will make a real, productive and lasting difference to the economy – like the Metro, energy and ensuring a future for steel - not vanity projects that often fail to live up to the hype.

I don't blame anyone for concluding that the Welsh Government have been unambitious, yet equally you can say they've been prudent and sensible....to a point.
Brexit can't become the cover story for the usual Welsh Government response to an economic storm, which is to retreat back to its comfort zone of grants and small value projects until things die down.

The "big projects" should still go ahead, it's just a question of picking the right ones. This perhaps wasn't one of them.