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Showing posts with label Ambulance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ambulance. Show all posts

Friday, 9 December 2016

Committees Bite Size #1: December 2016


Like First Minister's Questions, this is an experiment in improving Oggy Bloggy Ogwr's depth of coverage. As some of you might've seen from my fifth anniversary post last March, I only cover about a third of the Assembly's committee work. This move will enable me to push closer to 80-100%.

Tuesday, 6 December 2016

FMQs: PISA, Article 50 & Bank Closures




Obviously the big story today is the OECD's PISA 2015 results – I'm pushing to get something done for tomorrow but I'm currently unwell 😰. In the meantime, there's the penultimate FMQs of 2016 with PISA featuring heavily as you might expect.

Tuesday, 1 November 2016

FMQs : Autism, Teachers & Fireworks


Same stuff; different week. You know the drill.

Wednesday, 16 March 2016

Sunday, 6 March 2016

Fourth Assembly In Focus : Health & Care


Last time I focused on the economy – which no doubt would've brought some smiles to any Labour faces reading this as it was broadly good news. I think it's time to wipe any smug grins away.

Monday, 13 July 2015

Kickstarting Welsh Hearts



Petitioners have asked the Welsh Government to consider widening
access to, and awareness of, public defibrillators.
(Pic : zoll.com)
(Owen : Some work is being undertaken on the house over the coming week which may/will result in my internet connection being disrupted - possibly for several days, maybe longer. So if I don't post on my usual schedule that'll be the reason why.)

Following hot on the heels from their previous report, last week the National Assembly's Petitions Committee published a report (pdf) into a petition submitted by nurse Phil Hill which secured 78 signatures. He submitted the petition whilst working on master's degree research into attitudes towards public defibrillators.

Wednesday, 22 April 2015

Flying Doctors set to take to the sky

It's happened! It's actually happened! A common sense, practical
idea on ambulance services from the Welsh Government.
(Pic : EMRTS Cymru)

After a longer than usual Easter recess, the National Assembly has returned for summer term. Although the election will be on everyone's minds, it's important to remember that AMs still exist, and I'm sure many of you are as bored of the election as I am by now.

Thursday, 30 October 2014

NHS Wales : The point-scoring has to stop

Playing political football with the Welsh NHS is likely to be as damaging as the political
football which has led to topics like immigration becoming "third rail" issues.
(Pic : reddit.com)
I wish politics was based on the strength of arguments and how good ideas are, debated rationally in language everyone can understand. That's the "Premier League of Politics". Unfortunately, we're stuck with the "Conference of Politics" in the UK, and there's been no better display of political semi-professionalism than the Cardiff-London spat over the Welsh NHS.

The content of the Daily Mail series is nothing we haven't heard before, but as it's dragged on-off for close to a fortnight - it looks like Y Byd ar Bedwar are going to come back to it again next week -  I suppose I've got no choice but to address it as well.

First off – as I'm sure you all realised - this was an attempt by the Daily Mail to embarrass Ed Miliband by flagging up the perceived incompetence of the UK's only ruling Labour administration.


Ed Miliband typifies the career politicians that have caused such a disillusionment with politics in the first place. He's been sheltered from the realities of everyday life and knows nothing but politics as he was born into it. The thought of him walking through the door of Number 10 as Prime Minister next May fills me with a sense of dread, and I don't need the Daily Mail to paint me a picture.



Unfortunately, the Welsh Government did something everyone on the internet should know not to do : they fed the trolls. W
hy the Welsh Government should even care about what happens next May when they have so many immediate problems of their own is something you'll have to ask them. I believe Johann Lamont provided the answer last week; something to do with "branch parties".



I never thought I'd ever say this, but I have to take my hat off to the Daily Mail. Not only was this a visiting Ivy League professorship in trolling, but the Daily Mail have done a better job of getting straight answers on health out of the Welsh Government than 30 opposition AMs have during the whole Fourth Assembly.

The soundbites from Cathays Park and Labour AMs have sounded North Korean, which tells me the Mail hit a nerve.

Why?

It's a PR disaster. The Daily Mail is widely-read across the whole of the UK and the Welsh Government know this looks bad. That's because their overall record on health isn't just bad compared to the rest of the UK, it's f**king atrocious. Because this row was was played out on a UK stage - where the Welsh Government and Assembly have no leverage - it makes it different to past rows.

The Welsh Government live in a comfortable "big fish, small pond" bubble here where they often don't have to answer questions properly, can bat away scrutiny by hiding behind rules/process and are confident of being in power forever.
If Labour were running England or Scotland in the same way they're running Wales though, they would've been booted out of office in a landslide after a single term.


They're not used to the kind of high-profile sustained attack they endured from the Mail. This was a smear from the big boys and girls. The Fleet Street titles would utterly break most AMs if they did this consistently, making even the most strongly-worded Western Mail editorial look like a brawl between George from Rainbow and Teddy Ruxpin in comparison.


Having said that, while there are things we can blame them for and should punish them for at the ballot box, there are plenty of things we can't blame them for.

The Welsh Government aren't going around telling people to stuff their own and their children's faces with junk food, work longer hours than is sensible, drink and smoke to excess, get no exercise, ignore the needs of our elderly neighbours and relatives, stigmatise people with mental illnesses, turn up to A&E departments with a stubbed toe or after a drunken fight, or hold up ambulances because we don't know how to drive or park. It's not their fault we have a legacy of industrial disease or disproportionate numbers of older people either.

The under-performance is relative not absolute. The Welsh NHS is nowhere near as good as it could be, and is being mismanaged. However, in the face of so many (mostly self-inflicted) challenges, the Welsh NHS remains one of the finest health systems in the world, and I believe figures showing satisfaction (but not delight) with NHS services in Wales will stand up.

Only an over-promoted cretin with absolutely no sense of perspective could describe the Welsh NHS as "second class" with a straight face.

The Tories - and their little helpers like Danny Alexander - are single-minded, borderline autistic accountants reducing everything to a cost and a price. That includes me and you. They see public services as lines on a balance sheet. Too much red is bad, even if it makes a difference to peoples lives; while too much black means it's either better off in the private sector's hands or can be cut to the bone.

The Coalition's morbid obsession with the Welsh NHS comes across like a rubbernecking driver who's just passed a pile-up, hoping for as much bloodied asphalt as possible so they can tell exaggerated stories to the people back home and feel more alive. That doesn't mean they're always wrong.

Waiting times are longer in Wales. We don't have access to the same cancer drugs as patients in England. Large numbers of Welsh patients receive treatment in England (for geographical reasons, mainly). We really do have a recruitment crisis. Morale amongst NHS workers is through the floor. An ambulance is likely to take significantly longer to reach you in Wales compared to elsewhere in the UK. Meanwhile, care standards in some Welsh hospitals have been roundly criticised and the NHS complaints system is an utter shambles.

Have the Welsh Government taken steps to improve these things? Sort of.

Is it working? No, not urgently enough. Labour in Wales never treat problems with the seriousness they deserve, instead chucking money at issues to a point where the Welsh NHS is becoming a fiscal black hole. They also commission numerous low-level, over-specific investigations (like Trusted to Care) which result in reports that recommend sticking plaster solutions.

Sometimes all you need to do is address problems as they arise, but there's never been a comprehensive review of the Welsh NHS - from top to bottom - that addresses wider systemic challenges and forces the Welsh Government into action.

I don't believe that should be an "inquiry", because it's too quasi-judicial and implies there's someone or something to blame.

The OECD have been appointed to carry out an independent investigation comparing the UK's health systems, and the Welsh Government should co-operate fully. If that means the results are published at a time that inconveniences Ed Miliband and the Labour Party - hard lines. They shouldn't play politics with our health and well-being.

"We have an alternative!" I hear you cry.

I'll give the Welsh Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru credit for restraining themselves and coming up with their own ideas instead of just joining in the game of British Bulldog. Kirsty Williams has a Bill coming soon on minimum nursing levels and her party have called for a Williams-style Commission for the NHS; while Plaid want to integrate health and social care and address recruitment through their proposed tax on sugary drinks. Those are things for debate in 2016, not 2015.

During this row, however, both parties pretended to be above the Tory-Labour mudslinging while in the past they've often pressed for similar answers to similar questions using similar language. It hints at an inconsistency.

The Daily Mail is a Viz for Hyacinth Buckets, the hard of thinking and the highly-strung. But I'm willing to bet if it were the Western Mail, Independent or The Guardian slanging the Welsh Government's record along the same lines, the Lib Dems and Plaid would be marching down from the moral high ground singing a different tune.

The Greens will offer something that sounds high-minded but is incredibly impractical; while I'd imagine UKIP's vision for the NHS – if they even have a coherent idea between them in Wales – will be straight out of a Carry On film.

We can take a few things from this spat :

  1. The Scots made a humongous mistake in September.
  2. The popular press still have an important (Post-Leveson) role in holding governments to account.
  3. AMs are getting a good taste of what "getting more coverage in the UK media" will look like (and they should perhaps shift their focus back to coverage in the "nicer" Welsh media as a result).
  4. The last thing we need in Wales is to be dragged down to Westminster's level.
When you unnecessarily emotionalise a incredibly complex issue you tribalise the debate. It'll turn the Welsh NHS into a "no go area", handing "ownership" of the issue to those on the extremes, and resulting in discussions which resemble a pub car park fight - like immigration often does.

We deserve better than that, and we've been let down by the media and our politicians who keep spinning issues to such an extent that they barely resemble reality.


I realise this is the standard of debate we're used to from Westminster and the sorts of arguments we've come to expect from the Welsh Labour Government, but it's making it all the more tempting to give next May's election a miss altogether, and I doubt I'm the only one.




Tuesday, 7 October 2014

Why are Welsh ambulance response times so poor?

The Wales Ambulance Service Trust (WAST) has failed to hit and maintain its response time targets (65% of the most serious [Category A] 999 calls responded to within 8 minutes) for around 24 months in a row.

The latest figures, from August 2014 (pdf), show that 56.9% of Category A calls were responded to within 8 minutes; that rises to 66.8% within 10 minutes and 83% at 15 minutes. That means for 17% (almost 1 in 5) of life-threatening calls in Wales, an ambulance takes near double the target time to reach the patient. Summer is traditionally quiet in terms of demand for ambulance services, so these figures are particularly bad.

Although this is one of those issues which Assembly Members get very hot under the collar about, nobody's ever considered the precise reasons why the ambulance service is missing its targets so consistently. Opposition AMs huff and puff over the figures and turn it into a political football, while ministers almost never give straight answers.

Most of this is going to be guesswork and inductive reasoning with very little hard evidence to back it up. But I do believe that – concerns from the McClelland Review about management aside - some of the reasons might not be sexy enough for politicians to score points off each other in the Senedd chamber or press, but do make sense.

Where are the problems?

Before considering why response times are poor, it's worth looking at performances at a local level to see if there are any patterns we can draw conclusions from. As you can see from the map below, response times vary wildly across Wales.

Ambulance response times by local authority - August 2014
(Pic : StatsWales/Welsh Government)

Four local authorities actually hit or exceeded the target – Swansea (65.1%), Conwy (65.9%), Bridgend (69.3%) and Wrexham (70.3%). Neath Port Talbot (62.8%) and Denbighshire (63%) came close. So despite criticism elsewhere, it looks like ambulance response times in the Abertawe Bro Morgannwg local health board are significantly better than the rest of Wales.

In terms of poor responses, there are two distinct clusters.

The first cluster are rural local authorities, with Monmouthshire (50%), Anglesey (51.5%) Powys (53.3%), Vale of Glamorgan (53.5%) and Carmarthenshire (54.7%) standing out, with the likes of Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion and Gwynedd not doing much better.

The second cluster consists of Cardiff (58.1%) and the south Wales valleys. Response times in Caerphilly (44.8%), Rhondda Cynon Taf (46.4%), Torfaen (47.6%), Merthyr Tydfil (51.3%) and Blaenau Gwent (52.8%) are much, much worse than the rest of Wales. The difference between bordering local authorities like Bridgend and RCT is stark, though – as I'll come to – there may be unorthodox explanations as to why this is the case.

What might the problems be?

These aren't exactly ambulance friendly street layouts.
(Pic : Wales Online)
The quality of the road network - The poorest response times are in the south Wales valleys where there are a lot of very narrow side streets consisting of tightly-packed terraced houses, usually on steep inclines. There's often very little room to park if you live on these roads, let alone enough room to attempt to get an ambulance up them at high speed.

Local authorities which have the better response times, like Swansea, Bridgend and Wrexham, are quite car-friendly. Swansea city itself, for example, has been designed with road traffic in mind since the Luftwaffe flattened it, while Bridgend and Wrexham have large housing estates served by high-quality spine roads and dual carriageways.

So as much as AMs might want to pin the blame on the government or the WAST's management team, it could be equally down to dodgy junctions, potholes, poor car parking, ill-considered one-way systems or unnecessary sets of traffic lights and speed humps.

Perhaps consideration should be given to the creation of designated "ambulance-friendly routes" in the valleys that are cleared of any and all obstructions where practical.

Rurality and the distance travelled to 999 calls – This is something you can easily infer from the map, and it's so blindingly obvious even the harshest critic of the Welsh NHS will have to accept it as an unavoidable hazard.

The further you are from a hospital or ambulance station, the longer the ambulance will take to reach you – simple. The problem will be more acute in north west, mid and west Wales (as well as some south Walian local authorities like Monmouthshire and Vale of Glamorgan). The catchment areas for Ysbyty Gwynedd and Bronglais Hospital, for example, are huge, and often cover difficult terrain.

Farming and fishing are probably the most dangerous jobs around. Workers in these sectors are at higher risk of suffering serious accidents, and these jobs are also more densely concentrated in these areas.

Also, people who move to idyllic-looking farmhouses to retire don't factor in that – as they get older and inevitably get sicker too - ambulances might struggle to reach them at the end of gravel tracks off a picturesque winding B-road in the Welsh Desert. And air ambulances might be tied up elsewhere.

Ambulances are too heavy and too slow
- In 2013, around £9.5million was spent upgrading the Welsh ambulance fleet. Although they now carry very high-tech (and heavy) equipment – before factoring in the weight of paramedics themselves and patients – the ambulances are still glorified transit vans that can't negotiate corners particularly well and accelerate slowly. Over longer distances this will add up.

If you want an analogy, it's a bit like refurbishing the interior of a train or bus to business class standards, but the bus/train itself remaining a clapped out diesel from the 1970s.

There's little the Welsh Government and Ambulance Trust can do here, and the onus is on ambulance manufacturers to create faster, lighter vehicles. Perhaps there should be more use of motorbikes and cars for first responders, while using larger ambulances solely to transport patients to hospital and stabilise complicated conditions.

There's at least 8 ambulances I can see that can't go on another urgent 999 call.
(Pic : Morriston Hospital via cardifflocalguide.co.uk)
Delayed transfers at Accident & Emergency departments – Now this is something you really can criticise the Welsh Government for. It's their job to ensure there are enough medical staff, and that hospitals are well-resourced enough, to see whoever comes through the door.

Every minute an ambulance spends outside A&E departments waiting to discharge patients is a minute that ambulance is out of action. There are acute problems in Cardiff in particular, and it occasionally happens at other hospitals, such as Morriston Hospital in Swansea and Princess of Wales Hospital, Bridgend.

With the forthcoming centralisation of specialist services in south Wales, I'll actually expect this problem to get worse, as treating capacity hasn't been dealt with. They might stand a chance of being seen by staff quicker, but as far as I can tell there'll be the same number of beds to treat them.

This is the main reason why, in my opinion, you end up hearing of extreme cases of people waiting hours for an ambulance to show up. It's simply because all the ambulances are tied up outside A&E departments waiting to offload patients.

Compassion fatigue & "false alarms" - "Compassion fatigue" is a mild form of post traumatic stress disorder that affects people who deal with harrowing things every single day (like paramedics and A&E doctors), and it even affects the general public when we're bombarded with bad news or sob stories. We eventually get used to it to such an extent we don't care anymore. How many times have we been told the Wales Ambulance Trust are over-worked, under-staffed and poorly-managed?

For medical staff this becomes cynicism and a lack of genuine compassion for patients. This in turn may lead to complacency in care and poor morale. I doubt you would ever get paramedics to admit it because the trade unions will go ballistic and on the defensive. But I'm willing to bet on some calls they'll let standards slip because they've had enough crap for one day.

Then there are people calling for an ambulance when they don't really need one, tying up more resources. It's easy to criticise people who do this as time-wasters or hypochondriacs, but it's often better to be safe than sorry. Welsh Government public information campaigns on this have clearly failed.

The McClelland review recommended that the 8 minute target be ditched.
- something AMs have conveniently forgotten.
(Pic : Telegraph and Argus)
The targets are too ambitious – Not all Category A 999 calls need to be responded to within 8 minutes. With improved medicines and treatments, things that would've once killed people – like heart attacks and strokes – are now increasingly survivable, even if a patient doesn't reach hospital in the "golden hour" (which some academics and medics have called a "myth").

That's no reason to be complacent, and there is evidence that suggests the sooner an ambulance reaches a patient who's suffering a heart attack, the greater the chance of survival (Pell, Sirel, Marsden et. al 2001).

However, just to point out how silly the 8 minute target is (as pointed out in the McClelland review), if an ambulance reaches a patient within 8 minutes and they die, they've met the target. If they reach them in 8 minutes 30 seconds and save the patient's life, they've missed the target. That's ridiculous, and no wonder paramedics must hate their job (Price, 2006) when those are the twisted standards they're held to by managers and politicians.

Echoing what was said in the McClelland review, the target should be based around the patient's outcome (for argument's sake, all Category A patients should be admitted to hospital within 40 minutes of the 999 call with a chance of survival), not a stopwatch.

What are the Welsh Government doing about it?
                                  

You've got to say that if these are the sorts of problems facing the ambulance service, then there's very little the Welsh Government can do other than implementing some of the recommendations from the McClelland report and keeping their fingers crossed.

Ditching the 8 minute target – however rational it would be - would be an absolute god-send to opposition AMs. It would probably send the Tories in particular into screams of ecstasy on the Senedd benches, as it'll be on every election leaflet in 2016, accompanied by a photo of an elderly actor/actress having a "chest-clutcher" on the stairs. So it's unlikely to happen due to politics, even if shifting the goal posts is in vogue at Cathays Park.

However, in the last fortnight or so, the new Deputy Minister for Health, Vaughan Gething (Lab, Cardiff S. & Penarth), made a major announcement on this.

The Welsh Government have earmarked around £5million towards the creation of an Emergency Medical Retrieval and Transfer System (EMTRS) service. In English, that means an expansion (you could even say a part-nationalisation) of the Wales Air Ambulance - dubbed "Flying Doctors" after the cheesy 1980s Australian drama, though it's probably more comparable to M.A.S.H. It'll operate for 12 hours a day, and will be based in Swansea and Welshpool.

The idea's that trained doctors and consultants will be airlifted to serious incidents with equipment so patients can be treated at the scene instead of waiting for an ambulance to take them to hospital to be treated. If it works, it's said 95% of the population will now be within 30 minutes of doctor-led emergency care.

The EMTRS is probably an act of desperation, but as an idea it's incredibly sensible, practical and I'm surprised it hasn't been attempted a lot sooner.

Wednesday, 5 June 2013

The Beast is Back - Welsh Government Progress Report 2013

                            

Yesterday, the First Minister published the second annual progress report (available here in pdf), updating the Assembly and the rest of us on progress made in delivering Welsh Labour's Programme for Government.

The report itself, and its annexes, have both been slimmed down significantly and the report itself is surprisingly readable.

It's still "The Beast" when you factor in all the indicators. Therefore, I can still make Iron Maiden references, though the fact it isn't 666 pages like last year makes Carwyn something of a spoil sport.

The "excitement" pretty much ends there, as this is a post for the anoraks (and lazy Assembly staffers). Don't worry about me though, posts like this don't take as long as they might seem as it's basically just listing stuff.

As I said last year, the commitment to transparency is commendable, and I don't really question the First Minister's commitment to "delivery" either. Progress reports like these are, broadly speaking, a good idea. It's just the means of delivery that's the issue. More from me on that next week.

Reaction

As you can imagine, the First Minister was keen to emphasise his government's record at "standing up for Wales during difficult times", whilst acknowledging that other challenges lie ahead – most notably in the health service, some aspects of education and local government (once the cuts start to bite properly).

Opposition politicians were quick to point that the report is a "fig leaf", "self-congratulatory" and giving the mistaken impression that "all is well".

Both sides have a point. If Labour really want their record in goverment to be judged on things like water resource zone targets or new PCSOs, they're within their rights to do so I suppose. Just don't expect anyone to get too excited about that. People do notice things like class sizes, waiting lists and the general health of the economy though. There are also hardly any targets indicated whatsoever.

Like last year, it's up to you if things have gotten better or not. However, many areas have improved, albeit by small amounts in general. The indicators themselves though are fairly unambitious on the whole. Many have barely anything to do with the Welsh Government at all.

"Flat lining" is the general impression given by the report, with one or two exceptions in both directions.

Methodology



In a change from last year - and in order to slim down the length of the post - I'm only counting indicators that have "changed significantly" one way or another. The definition of "changed significantly" is subjective (in general +/- 1% change or its equivalent). So I suggest if you're really, really interested in this, you go through the report, annexes or indicators and decide for yourselves.

Unless stated otherwise, I'm comparing figures to the previous year (2011-12).
  • Once again, some indicators continue to only have one column of statistics to base delivery off (like this), or don't have any figures at all.
  • Some of the indicators are outdated – the data for attainment for 19 year olds dates from 2007 and 2008.
  • Some figures are exactly the same as those provided last year. Compare this post with last year's post and you'll see it for yourselves (if you can be bothered).
  • It appears many indicators have been subtly changed, I don't think that results in fair comparisons as it's effectively "changing the goal posts". For example, renewable energy production was counted in terms of kWh in 2012, this year it's as a percentage of total energy produced. I don't think it's that much of a problem in the grand scheme of things, but it's a concern.

Now, on to the main event....

Getting Better

Culture & Heritage
  • Visits to the National Museum rose by 34,000 on 2011.
  • The number of educational visits to CADW sites rose by ~13,300 on 2011.
  • The number of free swims taken up by the over 60s rose by ~60,000 on 2011.
  • 60.6% of conservation and maintenance work was completed on scheduled monuments by Q4 2012, compared to 52.2% in 2011.
  • An extra 8 libraries were refurbished between 2011 and 2012, bringing the total number to 87.

Economy & Transport
  • The percentage of the adult workforce qualified to the equivalent of 2 A-levels rose by 2% to 54% between 2012 and 2011.
  • The percentage of the adult workforce with a degree-level qualification rose by 1% to 33% over the same period.
  • The percentage of 19-24 y.o. NEETS fell from 22.9% in 2010 to 22.1% in 2011.
  • The number of visits to CADW sites, local and national museums rose by 800,000 between 2010 and 2011.
  • The number of rail journeys in Wales rose by 1.3million between 2009 and 2010 to over 27.2million.
  • The percentage of households with access to next generation broadband rose by 6% to 37% in 2012, however this remains the lowest rate of the Home Nations.
  • Jobs Growth Wales exceeded its target of 4,000 job opportunities - creating 6,000 - and are "on course" to meet targets of Skills Growth Wales II.
  • The number of apprenticeships offered via Young Recruits rose by 165 between 2011 and 2012.
  • Apprenticeship success rates rose by 3% between 2011 and 2010.
  • 2G mobile coverage now covers 99.2% of Wales in 2011, compared to 84% in 2010.

Education & Schools
  • The percentage of pupils attaining 5 A*-C GCSEs rose by 1.1% on 2011 (to 51.1%) - a sharper rise than England (0.4%), but still lagging behind overall (59.4%).
  • The gap in attainment for those in receipt of free school meals as KS4 (GCSE) closed by 1.6% between 2010 and 2011 to stand at a 33.2% points difference.
  • Post-16 "staying on" rates rose by 1.2% between 2010 and 2011 to 80.1%, but lag behind England overall.
  • The number of further education courses successfully completed rate rose by 1% to 82% in 2011 compared to 2010.

Environment
  • The percentage of electricity generated from renewables rose from 5% in 2010 to 7.9% in 2011.
  • The amount of gas used by Welsh households fell by more than 1,000 kWh between 2010 and 2011, while the amount of electricity fell by 70 hWh (could be a bad thing when you factor in fuel poverty).
  • The percentage of municipal waste recycled rose by 4.9% to 48.5% of all waste – the highest recycling rate of the Home Nations.
  • The percentage of water resource zones meeting target headroom requirements rose to 96% from 88% between 2010 and 2011.
  • The percentage of rivers, lakes and coastlines achieving a "good" ecological status rose by 2.7% between 2011 and 2012.
  • The area of woodland to be managed to UK Forest Standard rose by 23,000 hectares between 2012 and 2011, with significant rises since 2009.
  • 28 more Community Flood Plans were created between 2011 and 2012.
  • The percentage of journeys to work under 5 miles made by foot or by cycle rose by 6% on 2007 to 26% in 2010.

Equality, Housing, Communities & Poverty
  • KS2 and KS4 attainment rates for special needs pupils both improved between 2010 and 2011.
  • The percentage of ethnic minority households accepted as homeless fell from 8.8% in 2010 to 6.6% in 2011 (hinting at falling homelessness).
  • There were 285 fewer incidents of "hate crimes" in 2011 compared to 2010.
  • There were 7 more authorised gypsy & traveller sites in 2012 compared to 2011.
  • The percentage of assessed dwellings containing at least one "Category 1" hazard fell by 7% between 2010 and 2011.
  • The percentage of homeless families that include dependant children fell from 43% in 2010 to 41% in 2011.
  • 21,000 households had received help or advice about reducing energy bills as part of the NEST scheme.
  • Credit union memberships rose by ~5,500 between 2011 and 2012 to just under 60,000 members.
  • The number of statutory plans produced by local authorities has fallen from 88 in Q4 2011 to 31 in Q4 2012, reducing bureaucracy.
  • The net benefit of efficiency savings in local authorities from joint e-procurement (xchangewales) rose from £14.8m in 2011 to £18.5m in 2012.
  • The number of adults receiving direct payments rose to 3,200 in 2011 from 2,730 in 2010.
  • The percentage of children seen alone by social workers rose from 29.5% in 2010 to 33% in 2011.
  • The percentage of looked-after children experiencing more than once change of school in a year fell by 2% between 2010 and 2011 to 12.2%.

Health
  • The mortality rate for circulatory diseases (under 75s) fell to 68 per 100,000 from 71 per 100,000 people in 2011.
  • The number of hospital acquired infections remains generally lower in 2012 and 2013 than previous years, and significantly lower than pre-2009.
  • The number of emergency admissions for chronic conditions is around 800-1,000 per month lower in 2012 compared to 2011.
  • The percentage of GP practices reviewing their palliative care arrangements increased by 5% between 2010 and 2011 to 90.9% of practices.
  • The percentage of surgeries offering online repeat prescriptions rose from 18% in 2012 to 43% in 2013.
  • Teenage conceptions per 1,000 people fell from 36.9 in 2010 to 34.2 in 2011.
  • The percentage of children immunised against MMR rose by 2% between 2010 and 2011 to 93% overall, compared to 80% in 2003.
  • Seasonal uptake of flu vaccines for the over 65s rose between 2010 and 2011 but remain significantly lower than the rest of the UK.
  • The percentage of delayed transfers of care (for social care reasons) is generally lower in 2012 than in 2011.

Rural Affairs
  • Household incomes in rural areas remain marginally higher at 100.9% of the Welsh average.
  • The percentage of people employed in rural areas remains higher than the combined rural-urban average at 69.7% in 2012 – a rise of 1% on 2011.
  • The percentage of direct payments made to farmers by the end of December each year rose from 88% in 2011 to 97% in 2012 – compared to 75% in 2007.
  • The number of passengers using the BwcaBus community transport service rose by at least 10,500 between 2011 and 2012 to 23,800 passengers in total.

Safety
  • Drug-related deaths fell by 15 between 2010 and 2011 to 137 deaths.
  • Alcohol-related deaths fell by 35 over the same period to 459 deaths.
  • The overall crime rate fell to 63 per 1,000 people in 2011 compared to 68 in 2010 and 102 in 2003.
  • The percentage of people aged 16-59 taking Class A drugs fell to 2% in 2011, from 2.3% in 2010 and 2.9% in 2009.
  • The number of first-time entrants into the youth justice system in Wales fell by over 600 between 2010 and 2011.
  • The percentage of successful prosecutions for violence against women rose from 71.8% in 2010 to 74.8% in 2011.
  • The number of fires attended per 10,000 population fell from 67.8 in 2010 to 53.6 in 2011.
  • Road casualties fell by 213 between 2011 and 2012, with a 185 fall in serious casualties and a 28 fall in the number of fatalities.
  • The number of people supported by the All Wales Domestic Abuse and Sexual Violence Helpline rose to more than 3,100 in 2012, compared to just over 1,000 in 2011.
  • In 2012, 433 of the pledged extra 500 PCSOs had been recruited, compared to 47 in 2011.
  • The number of people with substance misuse problems benefiting from the European Social Fund peer-mentoring rose by 331 between 2011 and 2012.
  • Access to suitable custodial accommodation for young people rose by 2.9% between 2011 and 2012.


Getting Worse

Culture & Heritage
  • The number of children participating in arts activities fell by 1% on 2011 to 79%.
  • The number of visits to CADW monuments fell by 68,000 on 2011.
  • The number of free swims taken up by under 16s fell by ~61,000 on 2011.

Economy & Transport
  • The percentage of 16.-18 y.o NEETS in Wales rose from 11.5% in 2011 to 12.1% in 2012.
  • The value of tourism spend at CADW sites fell by ~£260,000 between 2011 and 2012.
  • The value of contract opportunities offered through Sell2Wales fell by ~£600,000 between 2011 and 2012 (could be seen as a positive if contracts are more attainable for smaller companies).
  • The number of beneficiaries of ReAct fell by more than 1,000 between 2012 and 2011 (possibly due to economic improvement).
  • The number of employees benefiting from the Wales Union Learning Fund fell by ~1,800 between 2012 and 2011.
  • The number of dangerous trunk road defects rose by 161 in Q4 2012 compared to Q4 2011.

Education & Schools
  • The number of further education institutions fell to 14 in 2011 (due to mergers) and is likely to be even less now. It's up to you if this is a failure or not, but it's a "negative".
  • The percentage of higher education institutions with incomes higher than the UK mean fell from 45% to 40% in 2010.

Environment
  • Levels of greenhouse gas emissions rose by ~3.5million tonnes between 2009 and 2010.
  • The number of properties benefiting from enhanced flood or coastal protection fell by ~500 between 2011 and 2012.

Equality, Housing, Communities & Poverty
  • The gap in attainment between girls and boys widened at KS4 between 2010 and 2011.
  • Incidents of sexual crimes rose by 70 between 2011 and 2010.
  • Men continue to have significantly higher employment rates (71.4%) than women (63.3%).
  • The number of homeless families with children living in bed and breakfast accommodation rose from 10 in 2010 to 30 in 2011.
  • The percentage of children living in combined material deprivation rose from 16% to 20% in 2009.
  • The percentage of households living in fuel poverty rose to 30% in 2012, from 26% in 2010.
  • The percentage of people attending arts schemes from under-represented groups fell by 0.4% between 2011-2012 and 1.5% since 2010.
  • The percentage of 19 year olds in education or training when leaving care fell from 48.1% in 2010 to 47.3% in 2011.

Health
  • There were 3,000 extra emergency admissions to hospital in 2011 compared to 2010.
  • The gap in life expectancy between the most and least deprived hasn't improved between 2008 and 2009.
  • The percentage of patients waiting less than 4 hours in accident and emergency departments was 85.9% in April 2013, compared to 88.6% in April 2012 and 92.1% in April 2007.
  • 56.1% of ambulances met the 8 minute category A response target in December 2012, compared to 64.8% in December 2011.
  • The number of cancelled operations was generally higher in 2012 compared to 2011, but much lower than 2002-2003.
  • The percentage adults who are overweight or obese rose by 1.2% to 58.5% of the population in 2012.
  • 97.4% of non-urgent cancer patients started treatment within 31 days in Q1 2013, compared to 99% in 2011.
  • 83.6% of urgent cancer patients started treatment within 62 days in Q1 2013 compared to 90.3% in Q4 2011.
  • The number of deceased organ donors fell from 67 to 52 between 2011 and 2012.
  • 91.4% of patients waited less than 26 weeks for referral to treatment in March 2013, compared to 94% in March 2012.

Rural Affairs
  • Only 6% of rural households had access to next generation broadband in 2012.
  • The number of herds losing their bovine TB free status increased on 2011 in 2012.

Safety
  • Recorded crime at railway stations rose from 1,054 incidents in 2011 to 1,114 incidents in 2012.
  • Access to suitable community sentence accommodation for young people fell by 0.5% in 2012.
  • The percentage change in average hours young offenders spent in suitable education, training or work-based activity once in a custodial or community sentence fell from 17.6% in 2011 to 11.7% in 2012.

Life for sale, or to use for your amusement. One less than careful owner. Requires extensive refurbishment due to blogging.

Wednesday, 8 May 2013

Ambulance required for the Wales Ambulance Trust

After thirteen reports or audits since 2006 - will the Welsh Government
finally take action on the long-standing problems in the Wales Ambulance Trust?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

A major review into the Welsh Ambulance Trust – chaired by Prof. Siobhan McClelland – reported back last week. You can read the report for yourself here (pdf).

The Assembly debated the findings yesterday, and unanimously approved a – by their standards – pretty strongly-worded, 10-point motion demanding significant actions in response.

Just before that debate, Health Minister Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West) announced a £9.5million upgrade to the ambulance fleet – no doubt welcome but, for reasons that will become apparent, unlikely to make much of a difference.

The Wales Ambulance Service Trust (WAST)

The WAST was formed in 1998 – so before the Assembly came into being - after a review recommended the four regional ambulance trusts were merged into a national service. The idea was this would remove "artificial boundaries" and be more cost effective. At the time of the McClelland review, WAST employed 2,500 staff and had a budget of £159million, with a fleet of over 300 vehicles and 90 ambulance stations.

We might think of the ambulance service in terms of pure emergency services. However, the WAST provides more than that:
  • Unscheduled care – The emergency "blue light" ambulance service we all recognise, responding to 999 calls, as well as occasional urgent transport from GP surgeries.
  • Planned patient care services (PCS) – Non-emergency transport to take people to pre-planned/scheduled outpatient clinics. I guess these include the "ambulance buses" you see from time to time.
  • Health Courier Services – A sub-section of the PCS work, including moving hospital and clinical items. I'm not sure if this includes urgent organ transplants too.

There are other ambulance services not provided by WAST:
  • Wales Air Ambulance – A charitable organisation reliant on a mix of fundraising and state-support from local health boards (LHBs) and the Welsh Government. Its three crews generally act as an ambulance in places ambulances can't go, or for quick cross-country transport to specialists.
  • Emergency co-responders and first responders – These are usually volunteers, or specially trained individuals (like firefighters), who provide emergency care until a paramedic arrives on scene.

The Key Issues

Governance & Accountability


After growing concerns about its performance, and the fact it's been under heavy scrutiny since it was established, it's said WAST, "has been reviewed....more than any part of the Welsh NHS." It's claimed there've been at least THIRTEEN reviews or audits of WAST since 2006 – this is the latest – so it's totting up at roughly two a year.

Of those reviews, at least two were in-depth – internal and independent - between 2006 and 2009. There was also an opportunity to look at governance arrangements when the LHBs were reorganised in 2009.

In terms of governance, at the moment ambulance services are :

  • Commissioned by the Welsh Health Specialised Services Committee, or WHSSC (never heard of them).
  • Accountable to the LHBs.
  • Governed by the Welsh Government.

So there are – in effect – three bosses.

Stakeholders said there was a "lack of ownership and co-ordination" of ambulance services due to these confused commissioning arrangements. There were also concerns about a lack of accountability to LHBs – who WAST are contractually obligated to provide services for.

It boils down to the question of who are WAST answerable to? It appears nobody knows. These stakeholders were clear though that they wanted ambulances services to "run locally" but "overseen nationally". Isn't that what the arrangements are like anyway?

Not plugging or anything. I'll just leave this here.

Funding, Management & Staff

In terms of funding, for unscheduled/emergency care the arrangements are pretty straightforward. The Welsh Government funds LHBs who fund WHSSC and eventually money makes its way to WAST.

"Funding per call" is around £195, which is lower than similar ambulance trusts in England. Though staff think they get enough funds to run the service, it's said funding isn't being properly targeted towards delivering desired service outcomes (i.e the 8 minute target) – for example, regional differences in funding, where SE Wales gets 68% of calls but doesn't get 68% of funds.

The management structure is one of these bureaucratic mazes which depress me each time I see one. It's said problems in management haven't been dealt with down the years, despite changes in top personnel. Some concerns were raised about the leadership skills of senior managers too.

There are high sickness levels amongst ambulance staff, which is usually one of the first signs of low morale or poor working practices. Considering the scrutiny they're under, you can understand why. You would expect ambulance service staff to have more overtime, but it's suggested staff rosters are "inconsistent" and "lacked capacity at peak times".

I think it's worth pointing out that nobody blames paramedics or frontline ambulance staff for these problems. They appear to be lions led by donkeys – management and political.

Performance

In the last few weeks, we learned only 53.3% of emergency calls were responded to within the 8 minute target time laid down by the Welsh Government (who aim for 65%).

WAST dealt with 530,000+ calls in 2012-13, and the number of calls they received significantly increased since 2005-06. "Life threatening calls" have increased by 30% alone over that period.

WAST consistently failed to reach the 8 minute target during 2012-13, though they've done better in previous years. They've also failed to reach targets for lesser emergencies that need a response in 30 minutes to an hour.

There are several reasons given for this. Most of them are perfectly reasonable and unavoidable, I'm afraid to say :
  • Poor weather hampering ambulances.
  • Topography and geography. I think we'll all have seen ambulances on "blue light" calls stuck in traffic jams or narrow side streets.
  • Particular problems in sparsely populated areas. You can't guarantee where an emergency call will come from as well as factoring in the long distances travelled.
  • Handover delays at A&E departments. Every hour an ambulance is held up at an A&E department is an hour that ambulance is out of action, putting more pressure on the fewer ambulances left on the road.

It's said that while speed is important in some medical emergencies – like a heart attack - an 8 minute target is a "blanket measure". This is a critical point I'll come back to later.

Recommendations

There were four key recommendations, and 12 recommendations overall :
  • Emergency ambulance services should be considered a clinical service (focused on unscheduled care), with PCS services separated. I think that translates as, "Stop using emergency ambulances to transport people who can/should make their own way to hospital."
  • PCS services should be provided by LHBs themselves. AMs from all parties have backed these first two recommendations.
  • Development of a non-emergency "111" service to, presumably, discourage people using 999 for medical non-emergencies. It's worth noting current problems in the English 111 service though.
  • A clear need for funding and accountability changes.

Relating to that last point, the report proposes three strategic options:
  1. Retaining a national ambulance service as a "special health board" funded directly by the Welsh Government. It would clear up the "three bosses" issue, as ambulance services would be directly accountable to the Welsh Government. However, it might not be fully integrated into locally-run PCS services. Plus there's the problem of setting up a new health board in the first place.
  2. A new commissioning model, with ambulance services commissioned directly by LHBs. WAST would remain, but services would be accountable to and funded by individual LHBs, creating a "local focus". Some of the drawbacks include a lack of commissioning skills in the Welsh NHS, and it might not be different enough from current arrangements.
  3. Ambulance services run and funded by LHBs alone. WAST would be dissolved and ambulance services locally controlled in their entirety. This is probably the most radical proposed change. It would increase "competition" between LHBs in terms of performance, and the LHB would be entirely accountable for ambulance services. However, there is the issue of staff transfers as well as the prospect of bigger differences in performance between different LHBs.

999 problems

I don't think WAST's problems come down entirely to management and governance. Look at the list of reasons for poor performances. Wales (generally) has poor roads and long travel times to hospitals in some areas – which are set to become even longer (in some cases) thanks to the hospital reorganisations. That's probably why members of the public are worried about downgrading local A&Es.

We don't have the infrastructure to enable across-the-board 8 minute response times. Maybe the Welsh Government's targets are too high, and we need a redefinition of what a "life threatening emergency" is. We're in danger of becoming obsessed with the target, not the standard of care.

An example was given where if an ambulance reaches an emergency in 7 minutes and the patient dies – they've hit the target. If it's 9 minutes and they live – they've missed it.

In terms of the strategic options, I'd go for option three – dissolving WAST and handing ambulance services over to LHBs. It might make it clearer which parts of Wales have problems with response times so the Welsh Government can pinpoint what's causing them and take appropriate action.

The fact there've been thirteen reviews or audits in seven years reflects badly on Cardiff Bay. They must've shelved so many of these things you've got to wonder why they're commissioned in the first place!

This latest review is unlikely to go that way. However, I'm bracing myself for only minimal changes as I have low expectations when it comes to Welsh Government and LHB responses to health issues now. They're either incredibly pushy – as in the case of hospital reorganisations - or ultra-conservative and risk-averse.

The Welsh Government didn't set up a national ambulance service, but it's been their responsibility since 1999 to sort out problems. They clearly haven't, or been too scared to make significant changes for whatever reason.

For all the reviews, questions and motions, the key question remains paramount:

How many people have been put in unnecessary danger because of this?

Tuesday, 15 January 2013

Accountability vacuum causing problems for Welsh Labour?

With Hywel Dda Local Health Board formally adopting
its hospital reorganisations today, is this the
start of an uncomfortable period for Welsh Labour AMs?
(Pic : BBC Wales)
I only saw these last week, but there are two videos (here and here) of Sandy Mewies AM (Lab, Delyn) talking with protesters outside a meeting in Connah's Quay back in September. The protesters were campaigning to save Flint Community Hospital, which has been outlined for closure by Betsi Cadwaladr University Local Health Board.

Although this was a while ago, I think this exemplifies a big problem with regard public service delivery. Sandy makes repeated claims, or implied, that it's "not to do with me" – a classic politician's line if ever there was one.

Right, OK, she doesn't come across too well in the videos. However, in this case, she's technically right and it's going to cause the Welsh Government and Labour AMs headaches in the coming years.

Who runs the Welsh NHS?

Local Health Boards (LHBs) actually run and administer NHS services in Wales. The LHBs are the ones overseeing hospital reorganisations and consultations on reorganisations. These are run by appointed officers and managers, but those higher up are practically anonymous.

Community Health Councils (CHCs) are supposed to represent the views of service users and the general public. Local councillors are represented on those boards – in a similar way to police and fire services.

The Welsh Government, and by extension Labour AMs - like it or not - are politically accountable for these reorganisations. But in practice they have very little say in what's being done. They can only scrutinise really, and that's – primarily - being led in the Assembly by opposition AMs.

Labour AMs have been quiet with one or two exceptions. Backbench Labour AMs seem unwilling to speak either for or against the LHB decisions, and that was one point raised by the Flint protesters. I'd draw your attention back to what's been said about Assembly plenary sessions.

I'm convinced that's just one reason reason why some public services in Wales are poorly run, because it's always someone else (Councillors, AMs, MPs) carrying the can, even if they had nothing to do with the decision-making.

So, the decision-making ability rests in one place, the accountability rests with the politicians. They should be joined together. I think that's what most people would call "a functioning democracy".

Say what you like about PCCs, but at least you can't say that of the police anymore.

What's going wrong with hospital reorganisations?

I've said several times that the changes make sense - primarily because of shortages of specialist medical staff. I should be explaining why the changes are needed. However, whenever I go to do so, some other bungle appears – whether that's by ministers, LHBs or someone else. I go back to banging my head against the desk, hoping to wake up one morning and find I'm only human left alive, or that Wales is sinking into the Irish Sea, so we can put all this madness of thinking we have a functioning country to rest.

It's been rushed – Perhaps that's with one eye on NHS budgets, which are under immediate strain, but many LHBs are using 12-week consultations (the bare minimum) for the public to judge changes that will last decades. In an ideal world, this would've been phased in over several years. Even if it is going to be, that's not the impression given.

People still don't understand what's happening – This is supposed to be the point of the consultations, and some LHBs have gone some way in explaining the changes to the public. However, some consultations have been poorly attended and if you mention "hospital changes" to anyone in the street, they'll probably assume that means "closure". In fairness, sometimes that is the case – especially smaller community hospitals like Flint. Today it was announced that a community hospital near Llanelli will shut.

"No hospital is under threat, and no hospital was ever under threat in Wales" - Carwyn Jones, First Minister's Questions, May 1st 2012.

People assume the worst about NHS changes because that's what Labour have been saying to them for decades, putting it constantly in a position of danger unless Labour are running it. Heh. It has to be said that some opposition AMs are making the job harder too, but that's....their job.

Bad news follows more bad news – Again, this isn't helping things. Stories about people being treated in ambulances, missed targets, negligence, poor standards of care, failures to recruit specialist staff and sexed-up documents. Today there was issues surrounding Hywel Dda LHB's handling of reorganisation. Yesterday, ITV Wales revealed Carwyn Jones himself redacted parts of a report into the death of Robbie Powell – which is pretty damned serious by itself.

So, the climate isn't ripe for dramatic, fundamental changes to hospital services in Wales at the moment.

Us - Now, we the public rarely help ourselves. I think there's an expectation that to get "proper care" you need to go to a "proper hospital". We rarely hear about advances in things like emergency medicine or home care, which might reduce the need for hospital visits. We also expect NHS staff to perform miracles. I wish more people would pay attention to Welsh Government advice on things like reasons to call 999 or go to A&E. You can find out more information here.

I don't usually disclose what searches lead here, but one that sticks in my mind was "emergency arse doctor rectal surgery port talbot". I don't want to know.

Labour's problem


I feel sympathy for Sandy Mewies' situation in the videos. I don't like to see that happen to an AM (or politician in general), as she's only (sort of) trying to do her job within the confines of the job description. She's been placed in an awkward position.

The decision-making process seems complicated. Basing this partially off Community Health Councils recent calls for "stronger political leadership", here's how I understand it:
  1. Local Health Boards run and administer NHS services and propose reorganisations.
  2. Community Health Councils negotiate the changes with the LHBs "on behalf of the public".
  3. If there's a disagreement, and only then, it gets referred to the Health Minister (Lesley Griffiths).

There seems to be very little direct role in reorganisations for AMs other than to ask questions in the Senedd, or organise protests and petitions.You can understand why an inability to actually do something about it is going to look like inaction to the public - Labour inaction in most cases - if they're not willing to speak out on government policy one way or another on behalf of constituents.

Ideally, the LHBs and CHCs would be democratically accountable for these decisions in some way shape or form – perhaps answering directly to the Assembly's Health Committee. That's something Elin Jones AM (Plaid, Ceredigion) suggested last year, and several times before that, with regard finances. I think it'll have to go further than that. There's no point in putting local councillors on the CHCs, as local authorities are generally run along this arrangement too.

But, ultimately, Welsh Labour seem quite happy with the arrangement as they've done little to change it, other than push for greater collaboration between varying authorities at local and regional level.

At the very least they should consider Elin Jones' suggestion now, or Sandy Mewies will only be the first Labour AM to (on record) get this treatment. If Labour handled it like this in England or Scotland they would be toast, but being Wales and seeing as the Chuckle Brothers down the M4 are rather unpopular at the moment, I doubt this is going to affect the party electorally.

I want them to get this right, because as long as the changes are reasonable I think we might see long-term benefits through the creation of "centres of excellence". But, yeah, at a fundamental level they're making a complete hash of it.

The thing is though, it's not entirely backbench AMs fault. But you better believe it's going to be their faces and names to it.

Sunday, 29 July 2012

Welsh Government - End of year report

The Assembly is now in recess. How do I, personally, think
the Welsh Government (and opposition leaders) have performed
in this first year since the March 2011 referendum?
(Pic : The Guardian)

Carwyn Jones (Lab, Bridgend)
First Minister

C (D within Wales, B externally.)

Is Carwyn a good "figurehead" for Wales – someone who you would be pleased to have represent the nation – yeah. I'm quite happy with his performance there. In fact, I'd say he's perhaps better than Rhodri Morgan in that regard.

I've been fairly impressed with how Carwyn has handled relations with Westminster, his ponderings on the constitution, the relatively successful business trips and his somewhat "ambassadorial" role. Despite Dafydd-El's hissy fit recently, I agree with him that Carwyn Jones is quite the statesman, and manages to be both affable and presidential at the same time – an excellent combination for any politician.

Is Carwyn a good "First Minister" – someone who drives progress, inspires confidence and competence, and motivates their government to action. From what I've seen, it's a big no.

So that's something Carwyn Jones and David Cameron have in common then.

With regard the government side of things, I've seen little to be impressed with. In the first half of the Assembly year there was near paralysis. Since then, we've had a lacklustre legislative programme (with a few exceptions), reannouncements and relaunches, fiascos like the Green Investment Bank Bid, AWEMA, that nuclear weapons "brain fart" and the spin surrounding future health service reforms in Wales. He's been unusually combative in FMQ's, in many cases asking more questions instead of answering them. Personally, I think he's been coming off worse for it too, though others will disagree and question the standard of the opposition.

Not good enough, really.

Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan)
Finance Minister, Leader of the House

C+

I've said before that this is Jane Hutt's niche, and she's doing well. It can't be easy for any Labour politician to be in charge of making cuts of any kind, but Jane's budgeting has been relatively fair, with the "pain" spread evenly. The score would've been higher had the Infrastructure Plan not been, largely, made up of re-announcements and over-promising with regard capital spending on health.

Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower)
Minister for Business, Enterprise, Technology & Science

C-

This score will no doubt surprise a few of you. I've been heavily critical of things Edwina's been involved in, but there are several glimmers of hope : the continuation of the Economic Renewal Plan, the new science strategy, a few early successes with regard enterprise zones and the new innovation strategy currently under consultation.

She's a hard-worker, but I think it's the people around her that need to buck their ideas up. Nowhere near good enough considering the challenges facing the Welsh economy, but I'll give her credit for trying. For now that's all we can ask of her. Results can't come quickly enough though.

Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda)
Minister for Education & Skills

B

Leighton's consistently one of the Welsh Government's better performers (on paper at least). Ultimately, his legacy is going to be one based on delivery. If all the new strategies and initiatives fail to produce tangible results in education, then his record will be tarnished. Marks have been taken off for his aggressive approach to higher education mergers.

He has an iron-will determination about him - perhaps a little too heavy-handed - but maybe that's what we need in Welsh schools. I'm not sure how long his more "shoot first, ask questions later" approach will last before he angers the wrong interest group.

Carwyn is in the First Minister's job until he gets bored or he/Labour are voted out of office. Even though the chance of the latter occuring is less likely than Elvis crashing a Tardis into Cardiff Bay, if there were an opening at the top, from what I've seen so far, Leighton is probably the only candidate from the front benches that can step up to it in any meaningful way. That should worry Welsh Labour, really.

John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East)
Minister for the Environment & Sustainable Development

C+

Would've been higher had he not made a u-turn on the badger cull. The rights and wrongs of it are up for debate, but it doesn't look good when a decision like that was dragged on for so long.

However, he's one of the cabinet members I've been relatively impressed with. John seems keen to get his hands dirty, and isn't afraid of making big decisions. He had big shoes to fill since Jane Davidson left, but he's acclimatised pretty well. He'll have a lot of work to do in coming years with the environment bodies merger, changes to planning in Wales and Sustainable Development Bill. I'm convinced he's up to that. Not bad.

It would be a travesty if he were shunted aside in the future for someone with a bigger mouth and a bigger head.

Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham)
Minister for Health & Social Services

D-

Lesley is in serious danger of losing control of the health agenda.

Marks are taken off for telling fibs about bail outs, and the recent issue regarding that "independent report" (perhaps unfairly). That's not to say she hasn't done some things well – reforms are the "right thing". Also, Lesley is delivering some major investments in hospitals (albeit ones re-announced for the umpteenth time), the Organ Donation Bill and overseeing really tough financial decisions in the NHS - which no Labour minister really wants to be doing.

I think Lesley should be given more free reign in how she's allowed to present the case for hospital reorganisation. Health is always going to be one of the more difficult portfolios to have in Wales, but I've got the impression that Lesley might have been pressured to present things in a certain way. I'm not sure how long we can wait for her to grown into the role, or how long she'll be given. There are echos of Jane Hutt circa 1999-2005 here.
She narrowly survived a no-confidence vote (that should never really have been called in the first place), however if the subject of that vote had been exclusively on her performance to date (which would be slightly unfair, I'd admit) she would be a goner.

Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney)
Minister for Housing, Heritage & Regeneration

C+

Huw might not be as high-profile as he'd like, but at least he's been busy. He's made some good contributions to the report on the future of the Welsh media, leading to several of his recommendations being taken up. He's also produced a very comprehensive white paper on housing - albeit with some fairly unambitious targets in some respects. On the heritage side of things, there's a new development at St Fagans carried over from the last government, but I imagine, at heart, he'll be more concerned with the regeneration aspect of his portfolio.

Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside)
Minister for Local Government & Communities

C

It's been a quiet year for Carl. He's finally got around to lifting the veil hanging over Anglesey Council, but hasn't announced any major transport projects of any note as far as I can remember. The M4 Newport issues will finally be addressed - as many a Welsh Government has aspired to - but I don't see anything actually happening on the ground for a while. I think once more substantial local government reforms are announced we'll hear more from him. Not bad, but not exactly blow your socks off stuff from him either.

Theodore Huckle QC
Counsel General

B

Should Wales have a separate legal jurisdiction? We're finally being asked that question, and I'm sure both Carwyn and Theodore played a part in that. Creating a separate Welsh legal jurisdiction would be historic because it would effectively consign the "official" EnglandandWales to the history books and the cricket pitch. Most of the high score is for getting the ball rolling on that alone, however from what I've seen he comes across as a very astute individual who has the confidence of the Assembly. Not sure about all this nonsense regarding a silver badge though.

Junior Ministers

Gwenda Thomas (Lab, Neath)
Deputy Minister for Children & Social Services

C

Gwenda's introduced a comprehensive draft bill on social services, which, even if it is above the level of understanding for the general public and only really of concern to care professionals, will hopefully lead to much improved social services. Gwenda is a friendly, familiar face, but it's been a relatively quiet year for her.

Jeff Cuthbert (Lab, Caerphilly)
Deputy Minister for Skills

D

This is through no fault of his own, and not really a criticism, but he doesn't appear to have done very much. All deputy ministers risk becoming anonymous, and considering his portfolio, he's likely to be in the shadow of Leighton Andrews a lot of the time. However, he is leading a review into qualifications which, in the medium-term, will hopefully deliver better results and improve education standards. I'm looking forward to seeing what ideas this comes up with.

Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent)
Deputy Minister for Agriculture, Food, Fisheries & European Programmes

C+
This role - which really deserves to be a full-time cabinet position - is one that requires a lot of travelling and a lot of hard graft. He doesn't appear to have the complete confidence of the farming community - they're always a hard bunch to please, perhaps with good reason - but as far as I can see he hasn't done much wrong. He takes the role incredibly seriously by all accounts, despite representing an urban constituency.

He's going to have a far more important role if Wales secures (unfortunately) another round of Objective One funding. I hope he can lead an investigation into whether the EU funds are being spent in the right way.

An unsung hero, but his occasional snide remarks against his predecessor are completely uncalled for. He's no Elin Jones.

Opposition Leaders

Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central)

D

I like "RT" - seriously. For some reason, he hasn't been able to set out a stall for himself. The Tories have become very disorganised since the loss of Nick Bourne, seeming to be in retreat when they really should be on the front foot off the back of 2011's good Assembly results. Though to his credit he's overseen the positive development of "Your Voice" – a new Welsh Tory "superblog".

Andrew needs to get a grip on things and work out what's wrong – it's not him, really – and sort it before someone decides to put a knife in his back. That would be a shame, because he comes across as one of the few AMs with any life and character to him.

Leanne Wood (Plaid, South Wales Central)

N/A – Too soon

It's far too early to make a proper judgement on Leanne's leadership. Yes, the local election results will have been a disappointment, but losses were expected. Yes, Plaid's membership increased in the run up to her election, but I haven't really seen anything that hints at a significant departure or alternative to Labour's hegemony (with a few notable exceptions).

I've neither been blown away, nor disappointed so far, but there's been some progress. I think most Plaid members and supporters would say the same thing. Her excellent contribution to the Diamond Jubilee debate and motion a few weeks ago - despite it arguably being laid as a "trap" - builds on her credentials as someone to take seriously, dare I say it - "stateswomanlike". Aside from the embarrassment caused by nursing a teething Dafydd Elis-Thomas in public, it's been a good start.

Kirsty Williams
(Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor)

C+


Poor, poor, Kirsty. Perhaps an undeserving victim of UK politics and the Lib Dem's unpopularity. The Lib Dems have always been one of the most capable opposition groups in the Assembly since its creation. That's their trump card - holding Labour to account – but Kirsty seems to have lost her rhythm, when on her best days she shows a certain gravitas.

Her first task in turning things around, is to stop Peter Black from becoming some sort of Lord Haw-Haw for Westminster in Wales. Her second, and far more trickier task, is to distance the Welsh Lib Dems from the UK Coalition. She's managed to get Lib Dem policy through due to the budget deal with Labour, but she - and her party - should fully expect Labour to take all the credit (and all the headlines) should it be a success.