Fourth Assembly Review : Final Verdict

(Pic : The Guardian)

Here's a final round-up of how the Welsh Government and opposition party leaders have performed as the Fourth Assembly draws to a close.

• End of Year Report 2015
• End of Year Report 2014
• WAG End of Year Report Card 2013
• Welsh Government - End of year report (2012)

Office of First Minister; Constitutional & Legislative Affairs

• First Minister : Carwyn Jones (2011-2016)
• Counsel General : Theodore Huckle QC (2011-2016)

C+

Does Carwyn display leadership credentials? I say yes on the whole and it's hard to picture anyone else on the Labour front bench being able to replace him. Carwyn also thinks very carefully before acting – which should be considered a good trait in a political leader – but he seems to be a bit slow to move from talking about doing something to actually doing something.

I wouldn't say he's smug, but it's clear Carwyn thinks he's above the opposition leaders and finds FMQs a chore; in all honesty, you can't blame him. He finds it all too easy to bat off questions – presumably because of his background as a barrister – and he'll often find agreement with Plaid and Lib Dems on certain matters of policy. As a result he's rarely put under any pressure at all, but comes across as a bit too laid back.

The Counsel General had a more prominent role this term and racked up a 2-1 victory over the UK Attorney General after three Welsh laws were challenged in the Supreme Court. He did his job – nothing good or bad you can say about that. He could well play a key role in the argument for some sort of Welsh legal jurisdiction in the future, but AMs seem reluctant to ask him questions – Simon Thomas and Mick Antoniw aside.

Finance & Leader of the House

• Minister : Jane Hutt (2011-2016)

B-

Finance Minister is one of the duller postings in the Welsh Government, but it requires a strong hand and a cool head to deal with competing priorities. Jane might not have set the world alight in other roles down the years, but I'd say she's found her niche and that could stand her in good stead if she decides to make a leadership bid in the future. Maybe she's shown a bit too much favouritism to the NHS in her budgets, but I'd say her overall management of the nation's finances has been sound, with cautiously sensible proposals for the management of devolved taxes in the Fifth Assembly.

Considering the time and manpower constraints, the Assembly's calendar has been well-managed, with the introduction of topical individual members debates bringing more relevant discussions into the chamber. However, the weekly business statement announcements verged on pointless as Jane always has an excuse on hand not to hold a debate or support a ministerial statement - which clearly frustrated many AMs over the last five years.

Economy, Science & Transport

• Ministers : Edwina Hart (2011-2016),
• Deputy Ministers : Jeff Cuthbert (2011-2013), Ken Skates (2013-2014), Julie James (2014-2016)

B

It started very wobbly indeed, but in the end – and with evidence to back it up – it's hard to argue against Edwina Hart's stint here being anything other than a success and she's leaving the Assembly on a high.

Unemployment's down, there are some big schemes on the table on in the pipeline and the Welsh economy has been through a period of growth. The only real criticisms would be her department's failure to properly implement reforms to business rates while it's clear that some of Edwina's actions have been unnecessarily combative – the closure of Junction 41 in Port Talbot, for example.

Ken Skates' brief stint as Deputy Minister for Skills was a rare ministerial highlight as he oversaw the rapid expansion of Jobs Growth Wales, which made the decision to move him in 2014 all the stranger.

Health & Social Services

• Ministers : Lesley Griffiths (2011-2013), Mark Drakeford (2013-2016),
• Deputy Ministers : Gwenda Thomas (2011-2014), Vaughan Gething (2014-2016)

D

Health is the big area of policy failure for Labour, mainly due to service failures rather than their intent to make improvements. They've passed three significant laws on health and social services this term – Hygiene Ratings Act, Human Transplantation Act, Social Services & Wellbeing Act – but not without controversy or incident, such as the original proposals for vaping in the Public Health Bill (which ultimately failed) and the smacking ban.

I've said enough about their policy performance, so I'll focus on the ministers themselves. It was quite clear that Lesley Griffiths was out of her depth and lost control of matters at times. While Mark Drakeford brought a more considered intellectualism to the post he's hardly set the world alight either. There's a real danger that Health Minister is going to become the post nobody wants.

Although he was perhaps too slow to act on the McClelland review's recommendations on ambulance services, Vaughan Gething has, at times, shown why he's so highly thought of and it's a racing certainty he'll become a full minister in the Fifth Assembly.

Education & Skills

• Ministers : Leighton Andrews (2011-2013), Huw Lewis (2013-2016)
• Deputy Ministers : Jeff Cuthbert (2011-2013), Ken Skates (2013-2014), Julie James (2014-2016)

C+

A mixed bag though, broadly-speaking, Huw Lewis is leaving the Assembly on a political high. This area of policy hasn't perhaps got the critical attention it deserves in the Welsh media – aside from the PISA results and big changes like the Donaldson Review. It's fair to say there've been a number of big policy announcements through the Fourth Assembly, and exam results have gradually improved.

The Lib Dems can take some credit here for their Pupil Deprivation Grant – though it's probably going to be some time until the effectiveness of it is properly analysed. Money in education has been a major theme, with Labour committing to keeping schools budgets at 1% above any changes to the block grant (and it's believed they didn't keep that promise over the whole term). Meanwhile, the increasingly controversial tuition fee policy, while being well-meant, seems financially damaging in the medium to long term.

So although the raw numbers point towards improvement of sorts, there's been a bit too much knee-jerk tinkering – though the difference in attitudes between Leighton Andrews (more proactive and directly-influential) and Huw Lewis (more collaborative) was marked.

Environment, Natural Resources & Rural Affairs

• Ministers : John Griffiths (2011-2014), Alun Davies (2013-2014), Carl Sargeant (2014-2016)
• Deputy Ministers : Alun Davies (2011-2013), Rebecca Evans (2014-2016)

C+

The intentions are good but, as always with Welsh Labour, the actions weren't there in abundance. Wales' excellent record on recycling has held up, but there were a number of issues – particularly open-cast mining and fracking – where Carl Sargeant was very good at talking the talk but lacking any real bite.

The Welsh Government passed landmark legislation on planning and the environment – the latter committing Wales to meeting greenhouse gas reduction targets. Also, the intent of another "landmark" law on future generations/sustainable development was welcomed, but the implementation was a damp squib.

On rural affairs, there were several major developments with the first Deputy Minister, Alun Davies, picking a fight with the Supreme Court over agricultural wages, forcing a law through the Assembly using emergency legislation powers; a fight he ultimately won. Then he finally oversaw action on stray horses – which has been a particular problem in south west Wales – though again he used emergency powers to see the law though. His stint in the job – which polarised the farming community – came to a rather ignominious end.

His replacement, Rebecca Evans – one of the quietly impressive performers this term - faced with her own immediate problems, particularly a crisis in milk prices which prompted a very quick and efficient review of the dairy sector. It come up with a number of ideas such as a new leadership board and possible milk processing facility in south west Wales.

Local Government, Communities, Housing & Regeneration

• Ministers : Carl Sargeant (2011-2014), Huw Lewis (2013), Lesley Griffiths (2013-2016), Jeff Cuthbert (2013-2014), Leighton Andrews (2014-2016)
• Deputy Ministers : Vaughan Gething (2013-2014)

C+

The overarching issue here has been local government reorganisation as facilitated by the Williams Commission. As mentioned earlier this week, what the whole process has failed to do is properly determine what local government is and what is should be responsible for. The map should've been an after thought.

This group of ministers also oversaw one of the worst scandals of the term in the form of RIFW, though they made up for that somewhat with the less ambitious replacement scheme, Vibrant & Viable Places.

For the first time in post-devolution Wales a minister was given specific responsibility to address high levels of relative poverty, and to date – in the absence of any meaningful level to make an impact, like the benefits system – little progress has been made.

However, several major laws relating to housing have been passed, one of which makes major changes to homelessness provision, while the other outlines significant reforms to the private rental market. Whether there are enough houses being built in the first place is another matter. Also, Labour kept one of their key 2011 manifesto pledges by recruiting at least 500 extra PCSOs.

Culture, Heritage, Welsh Language & Sport

• Ministers & Deputy Ministers : Huw Lewis (2011-2013), John Griffiths (2013-2014), Carwyn Jones (2013-2016), Ken Skates (2014-2016)

C

Another area where, while not really doing anything wrong, the Welsh Government probably could've done more. There's provisional evidence that 2012 London Olympics have had a positive knock-on impact on sports participation, but whether that lasts without proper funding is up for debate. It's a similar situation with the arts in Wales; as it's seen as "low hanging fruit" by local authorities many arts schemes, particularly music, have been victims of cuts.

Elsewhere, concerns have been raised about Wales' place in the new BBC Charter and future of public service broadcasting – particularly the long-term future of S4C – as the decline in the Welsh print media continues. A lot's been said but, as it typical, very little has happened with the Welsh Government appearing toothless as broadcasting  powers are non-devolved.

One area where they've bared their teeth this term is heritage, with the passing of the Historic Environment Act being an attempt to afford more protection to monuments and historic buildings – though perhaps not going as far as it should've, with ministers wimping out of a merger between Cadw and the Royal Commission on Ancient Monuments.

The position of the Welsh language has been awkward – particularly since the 2011 census findings, as well as the decision by the First Minister to take direct responsibility for Welsh language policy in 2013. Nevertheless, Welsh was made an official language in the National Assembly (with equal status to English) for the first time, while a (large and perhaps pedantic) number of standards for Welsh in public services were introduced.

Opposition Leaders

Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central)

B- personally; B- party

It's been a clear period of personal and professional growth, and despite some suspect moments of his leadership, Andrew took to the role of Leader of the Opposition pretty well and can be relatively pleased with his performance this term. He isn't perfect, but he does occasionally rile the First Minister – though it's sometimes hard to tell whether he's a mouthpiece for the UK Government or not.

The Tories have gone big on health and have, in some parts of Wales, managed to sew some doubts in people's minds on certain aspects – though it all seems a little repetitive. Following the Wales Bill(s) and future devolution of income tax they can, to a certain degree, say they are a pro-devolution party, though the EU referendum perhaps threatens to cause divisions. After a good result at the 2015 Westminster election, both Andrew himself and his party have reason to be upbeat going into the Assembly election....that still doesn't mean Andrew's coming out of it as First Minister.

Leanne Wood (Plaid, South Wales Central)

B+ personally; C+ party

This term has seen Leanne Wood rise from being part of the fringe of Plaid's backbenches to one of the more well-known politicians in Wales. At a personal level that's an incredible achievement. Leanne has always come across as down to earth, if a little self-righteous, so I don't believe there's any overconfidence there and she has every reason to believe in herself considering her political journey. The real danger is if the rest of her party believe their own hype. That's only going to end in tears.

Plaid haven't set the world alight over the last five years. Despite worthy attempts to professionalise their front bench, the positive reforms have occurred behind the scenes with the development of a strong "Brand Plaid". I'll come back to this in more detail later on in the campaign, but the good news is that Plaid haven't gone backwards and have stopped the rot from 2011. Their problem is a lack of demonstrable forward momentum.

Kirsty Williams (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor)

A personally; B party

Kirsty Williams is, without doubt, an excellent AM and excellent party leader. She managed to draw some significant concessions from the Welsh Government and the Lib Dems have passed two laws, including the Nurse Staffing Levels Act. That should count as a real triumph considering Labour's reluctance to take on board any suggestion on health and it's something Lib Dem activists can take to voters.

The party do genuinely punch above their weight – I'm tired of saying that, but it's the truth – and they can be proud of their record in the Fourth Assembly. Hand on heart I say that none of the Lib Dems AMs deserve to be on the end of a kicking in a few weeks time, but it's coming and I doubt I'll be the only one wincing when steel-toe boot makes contact with Lib Dem backside.

Overall Verdict

If the big theme of next term will be the devolution of taxes, the big theme this term was the Assembly's new law-making powers following the 2011 referendum. By and large, AMs and Assembly staff have proven they're more than capable of handling those powers.

The laws themselves, however, have been a mixed bag, with some genuinely groundbreaking legislation introduced alongside some very vague or downright useless laws which will probably be repealed sooner rather than later – the Future Generations Act somes to mind. I would prefer a focus on quality over quantity of legislation next term; it's better to have 10-12 good laws than the 30 or so glib laws we've seen over the past five years.

Although the opposition have certainly caused problems for Labour this term, their fractured and disunited nature - mainly due to big ideological differences - has given Labour an easy ride. That looks set to continue in the Fifth Assembly. Until Labour's "right to rule" is properly challenged (as it was, but for the wrong reasons on Wednesday), the Assembly's stuck in a rut. Maybe, for the good of the country and the future of democracy in Wales, the main opposition parties will have to put some of their differences aside and work together on some aspects.

Lack of ambition, micromanagement, laziness, cronyism – Welsh Labour have them all in spades and displayed them all this term.

Their rule of Wales over the last five years - while not being a complete catastrophe, more a cosy marriage that neither partner has the guts to call off – can be summed up as, "not good enough". The problem for the rest of us - unless you actually support Labour - is that we seem depressingly comfortable with "not good enough."


Tomorrow, I'm going to "do something nice" (or perhaps not so nice) and conclude my look back at the Fourth Assembly by handing out my end of term "awards".