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| What are likely to be the main issues for Welsh voters? (Pic : Click on Wales) |
The first debate's out of the way, I've given my verdict on the Coalition and the manifestos are going to be released over the next few weeks (I'll look at them in more detail once their all out, though UKIP are dragging their heels by the looks of it) - which means it's time to focus on some of the issues that might be fought over in Wales.
As I've said previously, I'm not including devolved matters. That means no focus on health, education, rural affairs etc. unless there's a cast-iron link to Westminster.
1. Re-balancing the UK Economy
There've been signs of improvement in recent months and years, but the UK's economy is still massively imbalanced in favour of London and the south east of England. Scotland stands apart to a certain degree due to a larger financial service sector and North Sea oil, but Wales remains bottom of the pile.
"Re-balancing the economy" is code for spending more money on infrastructure and pushing money out of the south east of England to "the regions". In fairness, the Coalition have done quite a fair bit infrastructure-wise, or at least promising too.
In terms of spreading the wealth they've been far less successful. The UK's north-south divide is said to have gotten wider over the past 10 years, with Cardiff the only major settlement in Wales seeing significant growth. That means there is, in itself, a gap developing between the south east of Wales and the rest of the country.
2. Cross-border Healthcare
Issues within the Welsh NHS itself are for debate in April/May 2016, not this election.
However, it's inevitably going to be an issue now. It's always been one of those third rail issues which people get hot under the collar about; but this time, with cross-border rows over standards within the Welsh NHS, it's going to be a hotter topic than it used to be.
Many English patients living along the border are registered with a Welsh GP, while many Welsh patients – especially in Powys – are reliant on English hospitals. Are people reliant on cross-border care getting a third-class service? How will proposed reorganisations of hospital services in Wales affect these patients? These are questions that will need answers, not point scoring.
The Welsh Affairs Select Committee's recent report (pdf) has called for improvements, like better data sharing and GPs making policy differences clear to patients.
3. The "Bedroom Tax"
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| Wales is one of the parts of the UK hardest hit by the "bedroom tax". (Pic : Wales Online) |
On a purely logical basis, the principle that one to two-person households living in three or four bedroom homes should downsize is perfectly reasonable. The problem is the solution put forward by the Coalition has to go down as one of the most cold-blooded welfare policies instituted since the botched disability assessments of Labour/ATOS.
It's directly penalised some of the poorest people in society through no fault of their own. Now, if they could downsize to one and two-bedroom social housing, this policy could work. Because of the crippling shortage of social housing, it simply hit people with nowhere else to go in the pocket for no reason whatsoever other than the Coalition taking their pound of flesh. Wales has been hit particularly hard as you might expect.
4. Universal Credit
When government and IT projects mix, it rarely has a happy ending. This will go down as one of the biggest policy blunders of recent times. The idea is simple enough : several benefits, such as jobseekers' allowance, housing benefit and tax credits would be rolled into a single payment.
There has been criticism that doing it this way will cause problems for those with poor budgeting skills, but the principle of wrapping as many welfare payments as possible into a single payment is fine. Speaking personally I support that – or a Green-style "citizen's income". I don't know how on earth the UK Government have managed to screw it up this badly though. The roll-out has been delayed, and it's said roll-out will take over 1,000 years to reach the whole UK at its current rate.
This screw up will inevitably cause concerns for those reliant on welfare, or families who receive tax credits – a greater proportion of which will live in Wales.
5. Immigration
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| Since EU enlargement, many people have moved to Wales looking for work, fundamentally changing our communities - even our high streets. (Pic : Iestyn Hughes via mireviewz.com) |
The immigration issue in Wales is elderly people moving to rural areas and expecting to receive the same level of public services as the urban areas they left and, concurrently, young people leaving Wales and never returning. Immigration of young people from Europe and elsewhere is a good thing in the long-run for Wales as long as they're economically active – and the vast majority will be.
This hasn't prevented stories like that from Merthyr Tydfil which say the number of foreign-born residents has increased by 227% over the last 10 years from 807 to 2,641 (or about 4.5% of the total population of Merthyr county) is "the second highest increase in the UK". Remember that going from 10 to 30 is a 200% increase too. However, in areas of high unemployment this will be exploited by those looking to stoke tensions, so you can understand why UKIP are targeting Merthyr.
6. Low & Living Wages
According to the National Assembly Research Service, in December 2014, around 35,000 people were on zero-hour contracts - where employees have no set working hours. Although it provides flexibility it also causes financial uncertainty as it's hard to plan budgets as you don't know how many hours you're going to work. That's why they're so controversial.
There's been a lot of discussion over the last few years over "living wages" – a wage that enables an employee to enjoy a decent standard of living. Although we will have a £6.70 per hour minimum wage from October, due to inflation and the relatively high cost of living in the UK (housing, energy, transport), the "living wage" is deemed to be £7.85 per hour outside London. Many private and public sector workers earn less than this, while under-21s (on minimum wage) and apprentices earn significantly less than this too.
7. The Future of Policing
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| Although crime has fallen, there's still disagreement over the devolution of policing - something Labour seem to support and oppose at the same time. (Pic : The Guardian) |
Back in December 2014, the National Assembly debated policing and passed a motion calling for its devolution (What's all this then?). Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs) were rejected by the Assembly yet forced on Wales anyway as policing is an EnglandandWales matter run by the UK Home Office.
Crime has fallen consistently over the last five years, that's a fact – although violent crime in Wales has risen, and there are worries about high levels of "cyber crime". This has all happened in spite of cuts to the police. How long can that last, though? Are changing working practices enough? What's the future of Police and Crime Commissioners – which, it's worth repeating, the Assembly rejected?
8. Affordable Housing
Like cross-border health this straddles both devolved and non-devolved powers. It's probably the most important issue nobody talks about other than climate change. High house prices are good news for politicians and pre-existing home-owners, bad news for everyone else.
The traditional response has been to open up green belt land and build more houses in order to increase supply and reduce demand (subsequently reducing house prices) and/or "help to buy" schemes. It doesn't work. The other response is to restrict building on brownfield sites or reform the rental market. That doesn't work either as it entrenches high house prices and locks people out of home-ownership.
It's a particular problem in Wales – urban and rural – as house prices in many parts of the country remain significantly higher than average local wages. Unless we want to create Italian-style multiple generations living under the same roof – and all the knock-on impact that has on things like the birth rate - it's an issue that needs to be addressed pretty urgently.
9. Fracking & the Future of Aberthaw Power Station
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| Will Aberthaw power station have to close? What would replace it if it does? (Pic : Wales Online) |
As reported in the last few weeks, the European court are set to put the UK in the dock over Aberthaw power station, which has breached EU emission guidelines for nitrogen oxides consistently for several years and could be forced to close if the situation isn't resolved. It'll have to be replaced in the medium-term, and although Aberthaw already uses biomass, coal will probably have to be replaced by gas or LNG – perhaps even tidal power - to match current generating capacity. OK, I might be getting ahead of myself by saying it's a issue now, but it definitely will be in the short to medium-term.
10. Fair Funding & Extra Assembly Powers
Constitutional reform is never high up the list of priorities, but it will be this year because of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum (IndyRef - The National Assembly reacts), and unionist worries over what might happen if the SNP perform as well as current polls suggest.
The issue in Wales isn't independence, but the future of the Barnett Formula and/or "fair funding".
Scotland does very well out of Barnett (namely to compensate for North Sea oil revenues) meaning Wales receives less per-head than either Scotland or Northern Ireland despite having many serious structural problems in the economy and wider society.The often trotted out figure suggests Wales is under-funded annually by around £300million based on need, - though Prof. Gerry Holtham's latest work on that suggests the funding gap has closed due to austerity.
The bind unionists find themselves in is that Barnett's generosity towards Scotland is one of the main factors keeping them in the union, to the point that even the SNP are committed to retaining it as is. However, in principle, the union is supposed to be based on "social solidarity", not bribing one nation to remain in at the expense of others, meaning any reform will anger Scotland.Also, we've had the Silk Commission reports (I & II), the Wales Bill has become the Wales Act – so some tax powers are on the way – and there's a cross party agreement on the way forward in terms of devolution itself, however crap that agreement was (A St David's Day Deposit). All the details will need to be ironed out in the next parliament.
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