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| Which Welsh seats are going to be keenly-fought over? (Pic : BBC) |
In my opinion there are at least nine Welsh seats that are seriously in play; though, of course, there's the outside chance of a surprise in seats other than the ones listed below – Clwyd West, Gower and Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire being examples.
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Aberconwy
Candidates (incumbent in italics) :
- Victor Babu (Lib Dem)
- Guto Bebb (Con)
- Petra Haig (Green)
- Andrew Haigh (UKIP)
- Dafydd Meurig (Plaid)
- Mary Wimbury (Lab)
A perennial battleground in Welsh politics. It has everything to make it so too : the border between Welsh-speaking Wales and Anglicised Clwyd, deep deprivation in coastal towns and lots of elderly residents. The Tories, Labour and Plaid Cymru all have a competitive core vote. At the moment it looks like a safe Conservative seat, but this could be one of those seats where a UKIP surge could cost the Tories – even if it only takes 3-4% of votes away. The margins are so tight, Aberconwy may only need 28-29% of the vote to win.
Swing Rating : 4.5/10. As much as I would like to see Guto suffer a pratfall after the incident with Thoughts of Oscar in 2014 (and more recent ones), I don't see it happening. There's no point saying "it might be close" because it usually is in Aberconwy, with Labour pushing the Conservatives the hardest.
Arfon
Candidates :
- Anwen Barry (Con)
- Kathrine Jones (Soc. Lab.)
- Alun Pugh (Lab)
- Mohammad Shultan (Lib Dem)
- Simon Wall (UKIP)
- Hywel Williams (Plaid)
It's easy to conclude that despite exuding confidence, Plaid are treating it this as a marginal seat. Hywel Williams has never attracted the same attention as Elfyn Llwyd or Jonathan Edwards – two MPs who best represent the ideological variation between small-c conservatives and socialists within Plaid. His main challenger is former Welsh Government minister, Alun Pugh, and Plaid recently lost a council by-election to Labour (thought it's not worth reading too much into that). There's a large student population who will inevitably jump ship from the Lib Dems and a number of council estates whose votes are ripe for the taking too. Also, the lack of a Llais Gwynedd candidate may work in Plaid's favour.
Swing Rating : 4.5/10 – An outside chance this seat could change hands, but I'd expect Plaid to hang on at a further reduced majority, making this a more keenly-fought marginal in the next Westminster election (if the seat doesn't disappear completely in a boundary review) and will likely cause anxiety in Plaid HQ about what could happen next May.
Brecon & Radnorshire
Candidates :
- Chris Carmichael (Green)
- Chris Davies (Con)
- Matthew Dorrance (Lab)
- Freddy Greaves (Plaid)
- Darran Thomas (UKIP)
- Roger Williams (Lib Dem)
This one has appeared in Ashcroft polling as up for grabs, presumably due to the collapse in Lib Dem support around the UK. In normal circumstances you would expect Roger Williams to retain the seat easily, but there's chatter that he isn't putting the effort in this time around. UKIP have also been polling well in the seat and could even push for second place, but their amateurism has shown over the last few weeks and that might affect things. If the Lib Dems lose this they're on course for a terrible night.
Swing Rating : 5/10 – Pretty much all Lib Dem held seats are in play, but compared to Ceredigion, it doesn't look like this one is as much at risk. The Tories will go close, but I'd expect Roger Williams to come home in the end.
Cardiff Central
Candidates :
- Richard Hopkin (Con)
- Kazimir Hubert (Ind)
- Martin Pollard (Plaid)
- Anthony Raybould (UKIP)
- Chris von Ruhland (Green)
- Jo Stevens (Lab)
- Steve Williams (TUSC)
- Jenny Willott (Lib Dem)
Another one of Labour's key target seats, and a major Lib Dem defence. Jenny Willott has had a lot of visibility over the last five years, but this constituency has a massive student population who will inevitably look to the Lib Dem's broken promise on tuition fee caps – if they (can) vote at all due to individual registration issues. The one saving grace for Jenny is Labour-run Cardiff Council are an utter shambles at the moment.
Swing Rating : 8/10 – You would expect Labour to take this seat, but Jenny Willott is a strong candidate so Jo Stevens shouldn't be considered a shoo-in just yet.
Cardiff North
Candidates :
- Elizabeth Clark (Lib Dem)
- Jeff Green (Christian)
- Shaun Jenkins (Alter Change)
- Ruth Osner (Green)
- Elin Walker-Jones (Plaid)
- Ethan Wilkinson (UKIP)
- Cllr. Craig Williams (Con)
- Mari Williams (Lab)
The Conservatives took the seat by the skin of their teeth in 2010, and you've got to say this is nailed-on to change hands next month. It's a bit of a surprise that Jonathan Evans is standing down after one term, as the Tories would probably stand a better chance with an incumbent. I don't expect them to get trounced, but....
Swing Rating : 9.5/10 - It would be a bigger shock if Labour don't win the seat.
Ceredigion
Candidates :
- Henrietta Hensher (Con)
- Cllr. Gethin James (UKIP)
- Mike Parker (Plaid)
- Cllr. Huw Thomas (Lab)
- Daniel Thompson (Green)
- Mark Williams (Lib Dem)
The #1 Plaid Cymru target, and they stand a realistic chance of taking it. They've held it at various times in the past, and co-rule the local authority. Their biggest challenge is the large personal vote and huge majority of Mark Williams, who might not be able to rely on students as much as he used to, but still maintains a good reputation. The Greens could play a crucial role here, as the more votes they take from disillusioned Lib Dems, the more likely the seat will change hands. Trouble is they could take Plaid votes too.
I doubt recent media stories will play a big part in anything to be honest, and it's plainly obvious it was instigated by the Lib Dems - their narrative throughout being that they're "the sensible middle ground" between two extremes.
Swing Rating : 6.5/10 – Plaid are going to push hard, but they have a big majority to overturn and my head says Mark Williams' personal vote will ensure the Lib Dems remain competitive - it'll be a big morale boost if they can hang on. Plaid ought to be disappointed if they don't at least push it to a recount.
Llanelli
Candidates :
- Cllr. Sian Caiach (People First)
- Nia Griffith (Lab)
- Scott Jones (TUSC)
- Cen Phillips (Lib Dem)
- Ken Rees (UKIP)
- Selaine Sexby (Con)
- Guy Smith (Green)
- Vaughan Williams (Plaid)
Like Ceredigion this is likely to be high up the list of Plaid Cymru targets, and their performance will give them an idea of what they could do with Helen Mary Jones in 2016 – though Keith Davies and Nia Griffith are on different planets in terms of quality as elected representatives. However, Carmarthenshire is Carmarthenshire, and there's a real scrap here with the potential for all parties to take votes off each other. Although she's unlikely to win, Sian Caiach will probably play a big role in deciding where the seat goes as she's likely to take just as many Labour votes as Plaid.
Swing Rating : 4/10 – I'd expect Nia Griffith to retain her seat, but with reduced majority. The Assembly seat's a different matter.
Vale of Glamorgan
Candidates :
- Alan Armstrong (Green)
- Alun Cairns (Con)
- Cllr. Chris Elmore (Lab)
- David Morgan (Lib Dem)
- Cllr. Ian Johnson (Plaid)
- Cllr. Kevin Mahoney (UKIP)
- Steve Reed (Cannabis)
Like Aberconwy, this is another seat that's usually a close run thing though Alun Cairns won it comfortably in 2010. Ashcroft polling has suggested the Vale could be within Labour's grasp, though Alun maintains a slim lead. UKIP and Plaid Cymru could play a role, as polling has hinted that Plaid in particular are doing better than expected, while UKIP will always be a threat to the Tory vote and the Vale has one of UKIP's few councillors.
Swing Rating : 4.5/10 – You never know. Even a slight shift from the Tories to UKIP could cost Alun Cairns his seat, which would be one of the surprise results of the election in Wales.
Ynys Môn
Candidates :
- Nathan Gill MEP (UKIP)
- Albert Owen (Lab)
- Mark Rosenthal (Lib Dem)
- John Rowlands (Plaid)
- Liz Screen (Soc. Lab.)
- Michelle Willis (Con)
#3 on
Plaid's target seats after Ceredigion and Llanelli. Albert Owen is a
strong incumbent and the people of Anglesey tend to vote differently in Westminster
and Assembly elections, though Plaid will be looking to replicate the
performances of the 2013 Assembly by-election and local elections.
UKIP will also be looking to do well here, but it seems foolish to
put up a candidate who's going to potentially double-job between
Westminster, the whole of Wales and Brussels (as an MEP).
Swing Rating : 4/10 – I'd expect Albert Owen to retain the seat with Plaid a respectable second.
Swing Rating : 4/10 – I'd expect Albert Owen to retain the seat with Plaid a respectable second.
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