Devolution at 15 : A Political Journey

(Owen : This series was originally going to be posted w/c May 12^th 2014)

May 12^th 2014 marked the fifteenth anniversary of the first meeting of the National Assembly.

It's an arbitrary anniversary that's not particularly significant, but five year increments are a good place to take stock. Because this blog's unlikely to be around for the twentieth anniversary, and to coincide with passing the 500^th blog mark, I'll take a look at how devolution has shaped Wales politically, its successes and failures, and what the next 15 years might hold.

First Assembly (1999-2003) – "No Confidence"

From the ashes of the increasingly discredited Quango State, a new talking
shop rose....and almost collapsed under the weight of its own hubris.
(Pic : Wales Online)

• Resignation of Alun Michael as First Secretary, Rhodri Morgan becomes first "First Minister"
• Resignation of Dafydd Wigley as Plaid Cymru leader
• 2001 foot & mouth disease epidemic
• Closure of Ebbw Vale steelworks and mothballing of LG Newport

Approved by the slimmest margin in September 1997, the National Assembly for Wales sat for the first time on May 12^th 1999 in a nondescript office building called Crickhowell House, which was previously part-housed by a health Quango and later rechristened the more Cymristically-correct Tŷ Hywel.

The byword for this first term was "chaos", which reflected its troubled birth. Before it even came into being, Ron Davies suddenly resigned as Welsh Secretary, ending his chances of leading Labour into this new era despite being the "Architect of Welsh devolution".

Plaid Cymru then achieved their best ever Assembly election result (~30% of the vote) – taking Valleys seats like Rhondda, Islwyn and pushing close in Cynon Valley and Pontypridd. This left Labour – as largest party - with no option but to form an unstable minority government. Turnout was low, but compared to subsequent years 46% looks fantastic.

The First Assembly was dominated by no-confidence motions,
internal party squabbles and concerns over a lack of
credibility due to Westminster interference.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

The First Assembly was effectively identical to what Wales would've got had the country voted yes in 1979. Lacking the powers of its Scottish and Northern Irish equivalents, the Assembly was derided as an ineffectual talking shop – a label it still struggles to shake off.

"Double jobbing" (being an MP and AM at the same time) was fairly commonplace. Though it allowed many "giants of Welsh politics" to ply a trade closer to home, it also gave the impression that Whitehall was heavily influencing the Assembly, with Alun Michael seen as London's preferred candidate for First Secretary.


Other AMs were new faces, many being former local councillors or failed Westminster and European candidates who perhaps brought a parochial, Gordon Brittas-style local authority mindset with them.

After a tumultuous eight months as First Secretary, Alun Michael was ditched in 2000 for party membership favourite Rhodri Morgan following an Objective One match funding row – avoiding the indignity of a(nother) no confidence vote (no confidence votes, or the threat of such, becoming something of a trademark during these first four years).

Rhodri Morgan led Labour into a long-forgotten coalition with the Liberal Democrats, which provided stability but failed to benefit the junior partners. Sound familiar? Lasting policies born from this first coalition include free entry to museums, Communities First (what I once described as "a little government's big idea"), the Children's Commissioner and Finance Wales.

With Alun Michael gone - partly because of their calls for a no confidence vote - you would've expected Plaid Cymru to be riding high. The sudden resignation as party leader in 2000 of one of the towering figures of Welsh nationalism, Dafydd Wigley, was for health and family reasons; but with Plaid Cymru often victim to internecine feuds, rumours of conspiracies were never far away.

Although Dafydd Wigley remains a senior nationalist figure, did
his exit mean Wales lost "Our Alex Salmond" from the Assembly?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Despite 1999's success, it was clear many in Plaid preferred to form a broad progressive coalition with Labour in order to drive a wedge between Cardiff and London (tantalising glimpses of which were given during the Morgan-Michael tussle). They were worried the party, under Wigley's leadership, was too risk-averse. This paved the way for inconspicuous country lawyer, Ieuan Wyn Jones, to take the helm.

After Plaid were left marginalised as "extremists" following a campaign against Anglophone in-migration in 2001 by Cymuned, everything Plaid gained in 1999 was eventually lost, making you wonder if a bigger personality would've handled it better.

Dafydd Wigley's exit from the front line of Welsh politics (and failure to secure an Assembly return) is perhaps the biggest blunder Plaid have ever made; and although they'll probably claim otherwise, it's something Plaid are yet to recover from, even if Dafydd has since taken to wearing ermine.

2001 is best remembered for the September 11^th attacks, which resulted in the biggest shift in global politics since the end of the Cold War.

Earlier that year a very Welsh disaster unfolded. With agriculture a devolved responsibility, the foot and mouth disease epidemic was perhaps the first time, in a crisis, that Welsh people looked to the Assembly for leadership instead of local councils or Westminster.

The boundaries of devolved powers caused difficulties, and there were clear mistakes - such as the unpopular decision to burn carcasses on the Epynt range, and the decision to close large chunks of the countryside. But while the (then titled) Welsh Assembly Government's response was mildly praised, a lot of the flak was aimed at UK's DEFRA.

Did the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic force
the Welsh Assembly to "grow up"?
(Pic : vetsonline.com)

The shift towards the Assembly and Welsh Government being the face of crisis management would later return in the form of the Pennington Inquiry into the 2005 e-coli outbreak, measles epidemics and handling natural disasters - especially flooding.

The First Assembly also coincided with the country facing up to the realities of globalisation. Due to liberalisation in former Communist countries, aspirations of EU expansion, and the shift in economic power from west to east, the Welsh selling-point of being a low-cost base for branch manufacturing was undermined.

The behemoth that was the Welsh Development Agency (WDA) looked outdated and outgunned, being hit by scandals and held up as an example of a patronage-based "Quango State".

Following a merger between privatised British Steel and Netherlands-based Hoogvens to form Corus, the Ebbw Vale steelworks closed in 2002 with the loss of 800 jobs. The works left a massive hole in the centre of Blaenau Gwent, contributing to the post-industrial downward economic spiral that the Heads of the Valleys region still hasn't recovered from – echoing a similar picture in Deeside caused by the closure of Shotton steelworks in 1980.

The rise of the National Assembly - and the far east - coincided with
the slow but inevitable death of the Welsh Development Agency.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

The decline of the Welsh steel industry during the 1990s and 2000s was as economically damaging as the decline of coal, masked by growth in the service, university and public sectors.

The subsequent regeneration of the former steelworks over the last 5 years underlines what replaced heavy industry since devolution : a community hospital, houses, a further education college and leisure facilities; services without any real economic substance.

Despite devolution, the Welsh Assembly didn't have much in their armoury to turn back the tide, with many of the flagship economic regeneration projects - like Techniums - flopping hard.

After being announced to great fanfare (and £150million+ in public subsidy), promising more than 6,000 jobs (delivered 1,200), the mothballing of the LG Newport factory (closed 2006) – along with the failure of Project Red Dragon at MOD St Athan - hammered more nails in the coffin of the WDA, indicating the end to nearly 30 years of continuous high levels of "big bang" direct investment in Wales.

Second Assembly (2003-2007) – "King Rhodri's Court"

The foundations laid, it was time to get down to
the real work after an ignoble first four years.
(Pic : National Assembly of Wales)

• The introduction of free prescriptions
• The "Bonfire of the Quangos" : Disestablishment of Welsh Development Agency, Wales Tourist Board, ELWA etc.
• Opening of the Senedd building
• Government of Wales Act 2006 establishes limited legislative powers for National Assembly following the Richard Commission
• Resignation of Peter Law from Welsh Labour, and election of Trish Law following his death.

Welsh Labour's 2003 election manifesto was a masterstroke. Its 10 simple manifesto commitments (pdf) delivered what Rhodri Morgan himself called "clear red water" between Welsh and London Labour.

The scrapping of prescription charges remains - to this day - one
of the more memorable devolved policies of the last 15 years.
(Pic : via Wikipedia)

Labour in England experimented with policies like foundation hospitals, top-up tuition fees and city academies in order to promote choice and competition. Welsh Labour committed to "freebie" universal benefits and collaboration between service providers.


In 2003 this included free swimming and bus travel for the over-60s, free school breakfasts and perhaps most importantly of all, the scrapping of NHS prescription charges.



The proposals were clearly different from other parts of the UK, relatively inexpensive (large numbers of Welsh residents didn't pay prescription charges anyway) and headline-grabbing.

Although Labour failed to secure an Assembly majority, the 2003 manifesto played a part in handing them one of their best results despite an atrociously-low turnout of 38%.

The other key policy development during the Second Assembly was what would become known as "The Bonfire of the Quangos". Quangos had an increasingly poor reputation in Wales. Most were established by previous Conservative Welsh secretaries, and seen as unelected and unaccountable.

The "WAG" - as it became known colloquially - decided to take the functions of these arms-length bodies in-house, in a clear difference of opinion between Wales and the rest of Great Britain over what "the state" should do – intervention and collaboration in Wales, innovation and targets in England, a mix in Scotland.

By taking more powers "in house", the Welsh
Assembly Government centralised executive control.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Ministers and civil servants in Cathays Park would have more direct control over key areas of public service delivery, all democratically accountable to the Assembly.

However, it also meant centralisation of executive power, the loss of private sector expertise and an increasingly state-centric approach to public policy. Since then, the vacuum left by the exit of private sector patronage has been filled by an explosion in (partly state-funded) voluntary sector patronage, collectively known as the "Third Sector".

2006 was a particularly historic year for Welsh devolution for three reasons.

The first was that the Richard Rodgers Senedd building was completed, officially opened by the UK's most senior civil servant, Bet Windsor, on St David's Day 2006. Although it didn't suffer as extreme problems as its Scottish equivalent, it was six times over-budget (at £67million) and was delayed four years. It's since become an iconic addition to Cardiff Bay waterfront, providing a state-of-the-art, environmentally-sound building fit for any 21^st Century legislature. Very ironic considering Cardiff voted "no" in 1997.

And a legislature it would become. The second historic event of 2006 was the passing of the second Government of Wales Act. Until this moment, the National Assembly only had powers to pass regulations. Wales could still make significant changes – like the aforementioned scrapping of prescription charges – but couldn't alter the underlying legal foundations.

Wales was to have a full legislature, but....
(Pic : Liverpool University)

The Act – the result of a fudging of the 2004 Richard Commission report - meant that after the election of the Third Assembly, Wales would have the power to pass its own laws (Measures) in devolved areas....with permission from Westminster, known as the Legislative Competence Order (LCO) system.


LCOs were a compromise between devosceptic MPs and devolutionist AMs - keeping a London leash on the Assembly, but granting extra powers and freedoms to Cardiff.




In order to dangle a carrot in front of nationalists and devolutionists to keep them sweet, the Act also included a trigger for a referendum to give Wales full law-making powers in 20 devolved areas (removing the LCO system); though then Welsh Secretary, Peter Hain, saw the Act settling the constitutional argument for a generation.

The third way 2006 was historic was that Wales fell out with Labour, with Labour's traditional supporter base feeling marginalised from an out of touch central office in London.

John Marek was the first Assembly Labour rebel, having been elected as Deputy Llywydd against Labour's wishes, subsequently winning Wrexham as an Independent. The second rebel was a former Michael administration minister, Peter Law. He resigned from Labour in 2005 due to a party policy of women-only shortlists during that year's UK elections. Peter Law subsequently won the Blaenau Gwent Westminster seat as an Independent with a majority of over 9,000.

Welsh Labour's fortunes faded towards the end of the Second Assembly,
having been humbled by a care assistant from Blaenau Gwent.
(Pic : Press Association via BBC Wales)

After battling against brain cancer, Peter died on 26^th April 2006, prompting a double by-election in Blaenau Gwent. Independent Dai Davies unexpectedly took the Westminster seat, while Peter's widow, Trish Law – a care assistant, and to date the only working-class (by profession) AM in its history – became an AM with a majority of more than 4,000.

This was important for another reason. The National Assembly (somewhat ironically given the circumstances) became the first legislature in the world where the majority of representatives were women.

It's also the only period in the Assembly's history where there was more than one AM from outside the "Big Four" parties, with UKIP looking set to change that in 2016.

Third Assembly (2007-2011) – "Coming of Age (& Austerity)"

When America sneezes....
(Pic : The Guardian)

• One Wales coalition between Labour and Plaid Cymru
• NHS Redress Measure 2008 becomes first Welsh law passed since the reign of Hywel Dda
• The 2007-2008 Financial Crisis, subsequent recession and Economic Renewal Plan
• Carwyn Jones appointed First Minister
• Yes vote in 2011 legislative powers referendum

The May 2007 elections were the last to be overseen by Tony Blair. As he was no longer an electoral force but an electoral liability (due partly to the unpopular war in Iraq), Labour endured a poor set of results across the UK, with Scotland electing a minority nationalist administration. Blair announced his resignation arrangements shortly afterwards, and Gordon Brown acceded to the position he always coveted a month later.

Plaid Cymru finally got what they wanted - a shot at government. While
Labour had to face up to serious problems, which were about to get worse.
As you can see, everyone was delighted.
(Pic : Press Associatiob via BBC Wales)

Wales' lover's tiff with Labour continued, delivering "a kicking" and - to date – the party's poorest result in an Assembly election.

Although Labour remained the largest party with 26 seats, it's too small to run a minority administration, but too big for other parties to ignore. Someone would have to go into coalition with someone else.




The period 2006-2010 was the Welsh political blogosphere's zenith, with coalition gossip and rumours played out to an increasingly influential internet audience. The initial talk was of a tripartite Plaid Cymru-led "Rainbow Coalition", set out in the All-Wales Accord agreement - but the Lib Dems infamously got cold feet in Builth Wells.

Labour briefly established a minority administration, but after further negotiations in June/July 2007 – interrupted by a Rhodri Morgan heart scare – Labour conceded to trigger a referendum on full law-making powers within the term, sealing agreement with Plaid Cymru to form the "One Wales" government.

Small, but significant.
(Pic : via Wikipedia)

With new legislative powers in effect, the first Welsh law in 500 years - regulating low-value compensation payments which result from medical negligence - was passed in a low-key affair late afternoon on May 6th 2008. Not exciting, but historic none the less.

Other key Measures passed during the Third Assembly included : caps on social care charges, granting the Welsh language official status, enshrining children's rights in law, the introduction of a charge for single-use carrier bags (partly result of a public petition) and setting minimum safety standards for school transport.

After a decade of property-fuelled consumer debt, the first inkling of serious problems in the UK economy came when Newcastle-based Northern Rock were unable to repay their own loans, prompting a bank run and eventual nationalisation by the UK Government.

Over a period of months, the situation developed into the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression. Housing bubbles burst across The West due to a consumer credit crisis, Lehmann Brothers went bust, household names like Woolworths disappeared, while London's financial service sector was said to be a hours away from total collapse and the UK close to martial law.

Despite having a small financial sector, Wales wasn't insulated from the crisis in big capital. Companies across all sectors that were reliant on credit – including Wales's proportionally larger manufacturing base - suddenly found banks unwilling to lend. Youth unemployment also skyrocketed, and during the height of the recession it was claimed half of the unemployed were aged under-25.

Traditionally, Wales' larger public sector would've shielded against rises in private sector unemployment. However, with households experiencing belt tightening, voters and populist sections of the media expected government to do the same.

During the tail end of the Brown administration, and with the incoming Conservative-Lib Dem coalition hellbent on austerity, the National Assembly had to manage challenging cuts to its budget for the first time. The impact on capital spending was evident on its own, falling by 40%.

The 2010 Economic Renewal Plan marked a shift from seeking
investment from foreign companies to growing Welsh businesses.
(Pic : Click on Wales)

With economic development a devolved responsibility, it was left to then Economy & Transport Minister, Ieuan Wyn Jones, to formulate the Welsh Assembly Government's policy response.

The Economic Renewal Plan made bold changes to economic management. It intended to replace WDA-style grants with repayable loans, and established controversial key growth economic sectors, each overseen by a panel made up of government, academic and industry experts. The shift went from attracting foreign businesses to Wales, to growing Welsh-based businesses.

In addition, ProAct and ReAct were established to keep people who would otherwise have been laid off in work or training. The result was that while the Welsh economy still lagged behind the rest of the UK, unemployment never reached the cripplingly-high levels it had in previous recessions or the 1980s. This policy of state job support in the private sector remains (Jobs Growth Wales), albeit now focused on apprenticeships and job placements for the under-25s.

After just under ten years in office - arguably becoming the first recognisable "post-devolution personality" - Rhodri Morgan announced he would stand down as First Minister after the 2009-10 budget. The Labour leadership election was contested by three "post-devolution politicians", for whom all experience as professional elected representatives had built up post-1999 : Carwyn Jones, Huw Lewis and Edwina Hart.

Rhodri Morgan oversaw a smooth transition of power to Carwyn
Jones - but the prospect of a tricky referendum on full law-making
powers was an elephant in the room.
(Pic : Press Association via BBC Wales)

Bridgend AM and former barrister, Carwyn Jones,  was long considered the favourite and took the election in the first round with 52% of the vote.

Despite being seen as having a broad appeal and of being a safe pair of hands (like his predecessor), he was criticised for being too laid-back, too bland and even of being a closet nationalist.

After promoting a new generation of ministers to his cabinet, he renewed Labour's commitment to the One Wales agreement, which meant in the next two years he would have to secure a referendum on full law-making powers.

Although many Assembly Measures had passed with few problems, the inadequacies of the LCO system were best highlighted by stalled attempts to pass a law governing cycling in Wales (eventually becoming the Active Travel Act 2013). The short "permission slip" required to draft a law was consistently held up at Westminster, resulting in a grinding delay that lasted several years.

The referendum was triggered in February 2010, and support for full law-making powers had steadily increased since 2007 - all polling in the run up to the vote on 3^rd March 2011 showing a clear "yes" majority. This didn't stop the Welsh political establishment – after a shambolic start - running a full campaign, perhaps being acutely aware that poor knowledge of the Assembly's work and highly technical nature of the question being asked could cause problems.

It was, in almost all aspects, a one-sided contest. This was aided by no campaign organisation - True Wales – opting against official campaign status, perhaps attempting to drive down turnout and media coverage.

The no campaign failed to offer an adequate alternative to, or defence of, the LCO system. It was also made up of the sizable minority of people in Wales frustrated with devolution itself rather than being overly-concerned with the minutiae of law-making, which meant many couldn't campaign for what they really wanted : a re-run of the 1997 referendum and abolition of the Assembly.

After a slow start, the "yes" campaign managed a
comfortable victory. What were they so worried about?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

As expected, the yes campaign swept home. In hindsight, both the turnout (~36%) and strength of the yes vote (63.4%) were bigger achievements than they seemed at the time.

The tight yes victory in 1997and negative portrayal of devolved politics created doubts in people's minds – including the Welsh political class – as to whether devolution was a settled will of the electorate. So the result also ended uncertainty about the National Assembly's place in Welsh politics. It was here to stay.

Bills and Acts were finally coming to Wales. The Bay Bubble were clearly excited; the First Minister telling those assembled at the Senedd on March 4th 2011 that, "An old nation had come of age".

Most people shrugged.

Fourth Assembly (2011-present) – "Parliament-lite"

A more powerful Assembly, but suffering the same old problems....
(Pic : Welsh Government via BBC Wales)

• Welsh Labour matches best Assembly election result; Welsh Tories lose Nick Bourne; Leanne Wood elected Plaid Cymru leader
• Silk & Williams Commissions : Framework for future devolved powers, including fiscal powers for the first time; (controversial) local government reform
• Passing of Human Transplantation Act 2013
• Call-in of three Welsh laws to the UK Supreme Court
• UKIP surge in 2014 European Elections

Following the referendum, Wales was electing a parliament in all but name in May 2011.

The 2011 Assembly election was the first where Labour wasn't in power in London. This allowed Welsh Labour to frame a narrative of "sending a message to Westminster" and "standing up for Wales" in the face of swingeing cuts - which disproportionately impacted Wales due to a greater reliance on public services for employment and well-being. It was a Welsh election being fought as a Westminster midterm.

It might – at some point in the future – come back to haunt them, but it worked. Those who abandoned Labour in 2007-2009 came back in droves, giving the party a plurality of seats so they could govern alone. The rebound was cemented further when Labour retook most south Wales councils in the 2012 local elections.

As an AM, the cerebral Nick Bourne commanded respect across the
Assembly chamber, but despite his best efforts, the Conservative brand
has since partially slipped back into its old toxicity.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Large chunks of the Welsh electorate sent a very different message to Westminster : "Keep doing what you're doing". The Welsh Conservatives became the second largest party, while the Welsh Lib Dems – fearing wipeout – lost only a single seat.

In 2007, the Conservatives scored near enough the same percentage of the popular vote as Plaid Cymru, but this didn't translate into extra seats due to where those votes were won and the limited number of regional seats.


Despite producing an ambitious manifesto (pdf) and a good performance (14 seats), electoral mathematics would haunt the Welsh Tories again. Due to constituency successes they lost leader Nick Bourne on the Mid & West Wales regional list.

Nick Bourne – the longest serving party leader in post-devolution Wales - managed to partially detoxify the Tory brand by successfully adopting duel-identity patriotism and healing the post-97 split within party ranks over devolution itself.

He was replaced by the more brusque, traditional Welsh Tory Andrew RT Davies. He's arguably failed to continue Nick's narrative, partly due to the increasing unpopularity of the Westminster government, and partly because of internal squabbling between Cardiff and London over who speaks for the Welsh Tory membership, as well as renewed splits of devolved powers and Europe. However, the Conservatives have clearly picked out Labour's perceived mismanagement of the Welsh NHS as a weak spot that could reap them rewards.

Ieuan Wyn Jones turned out to be, in many respects, the most successful leader in Plaid Cymru's history. However, Plaid's long-held ambition of being seen as a party of government failed to materialise. Far from being rewarded for a mostly credible spell in office, the May 2011 losses were a slap in the face to both Plaid generally and IWJ personally.

It was clear there was a need for change, manifesting itself as the party's Moving Forward review and a leadership election. Four candidates stepped forward – including former leader and Llywydd, Dafydd Elis-Thomas, and early favourite and former Rural Affairs Minister, Elin Jones – one of Plaid's most effective cabinet ministers during One Wales.

The election of Leanne Wood as Plaid Cymru leader was a sign
Welsh nationalism was stepping out of its comfort zone
- but is it enough to ensure electoral success?
(Pic : Wales Online)

Plaid's membership took an uncharacteristically bold step in electing Leanne Wood leader - a non Welsh-speaker based outside Y Fro Gymraeg. Someone so heavily associated with Plaid's socialist republican "hard left" was unlikely to have been many people's idea of leadership material.

Although there've been bumps along the way, Leanne Wood has overseen an activist-focused revamp of Plaid's campaigning methods and a professionalisation of policy-making and backroom support.



Significant challenges remain for Plaid and Welsh nationalists though. They look on enviously at the SNP's success in Scotland which has put them on the brink of achieving independence – a success which seems nigh on impossible to recreate in Wales at present, partly due to Plaid Cymru itself.

If there's one thing everyone should've learned since 1999, it's that the Welsh political establishment love nothing more than setting up committees, task forces and commissions. The Westminster coalition's review of devolved powers accompanied the (retitled) Welsh Government's own attempt to get to grips with two of the biggest challenges in Wales – sluggish public service delivery and local government reform.

The result was two commissions, chaired by the two Pauls – Silk & Williams.

The Silk Commission was split into two halves. Silk I proposed limited fiscal devolution and borrowing powers – including the prospect of powers to vary income tax rates....subject to another highly-technical referendum. Silk II set out further devolved powers; including policing, teachers' pay and a boost to energy & water powers (a sore spot in Wales since Tryweryn).

A new role for (Lord) Nick Bourne, and a new set of powers
due to come to Wales.... partially subject to a referendum.
(Pic : Click on Wales)

The Williams Commission outlined changes not only how public services are managed, but a significant reduction in the number of local authorities from the current 22 to 10-12.

The final terms are to be decided, with deadlines missed and tempers frayed in county halls across Wales, all of which are dealing with the toughest financial settlemens since devolution.



In the background, there was ongoing discussion about the future of the Assembly itself, with talk of an increase in the number of AMs from 60 to 80, changes to the electoral system and a possible name change to "Welsh Parliament" - pretty much everything that could've been done 10 years ago had the Richard Commission been implemented in full.There's irony in that everything True Wales "warned" people about in 2011 - that a yes vote would lead to more AMs and devolution of tax-varying powers - would turn out to be right, but for the wrong reasons.

A ban on AMs standing in constituency and on regional lists at the same time within the Government of Wales Act 2006 - which has cost opposition parties dearly in terms of political talent in the past - is also set to be lifted....it's just come a bit too late for Nick Bourne.

Many laws under the new legislative powers have been important but uninspiring – reforming bylaws, significantly reforming social services, a law on cycle lanes (at last). However, a long wished for proposal to introduce an "opt-out" system for organ donation managed the rare feat of sending Welsh politics to the top of the UK news agenda. As a controversial headline-grabbing law, the Human Transplantation Act 2013 indicated just how different policy in Wales could be under devolution and its expanded legislative powers.

Three Welsh laws have become entangled in the web of the 2006
Act, meaning arguments whether Wales has devolved powers
over this and that haven't been put to rest.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Despite being granted primary law-making powers, there were still shades of grey. Most of this resulted from the mechanics of precisely how powers are devolved to Wales within the Government of Wales Act 2006.

These grey areas have led to not one, not two, but three Welsh laws being referred to the Supreme Court, after concerns from the UK Government and Welsh Counsel General that they were beyond the scope of the National Assembly's powers – which are devolved on a line-by-line basis.


Although the Welsh Government successfully won a case where the Local Government Bylaws Act 2012 removed powers from UK Secretaries of State, the subsequent calling-in of the emergency Agricultural Sector Bill (another case the Welsh Government won) and member-sponsored Asbestos Disease Bill has led to increasing calls for a reserved powers model in line with Scotland and Northern Ireland – subsequently recommended as part of Silk II.

In May 2014 an earthquake hit Wales, though only 32% of the population noticed. Despite the seat situation remaining status quo ante bellum following the European Parliament elections, UKIP's surge in Wales took the other three parties contesting a seat by surprise, in particular Labour.

The reasons why are unclear, but likely to to come down to : a rise in anti-politics feeling amongst older voters; the fallout from the immensely damaging 2009 Westminster expenses scandal which shook faith in institutional politics; a rising anti-immigration sentiment since EU enlargement in 2004; and the media appeal of Nigel Farage. It also indicated Wales isn't as detached from the rise in euroscepticism in England as many would like to think (after decades of continuous high-profile EU structural funds)– despite polls showing support in Wales for remaining in the EU.

Major scandals shaking faith in institutional politics could've
contributed to the rise of populist hard-right parties across Europe.
(Pic : The Guardian)

Although transgressions are often minor in Wales compared to Westminster counterparts, poor handling of one of the more serious political scandals in post-devolution Wales - which eventually led to the Natural Resources & Food Minister being sacked for trying to obtain private information about five opposition AMs - has led some to suggest that "sleaze" could be labelled to what increasingly looks like a tired Welsh Labour machine.

This is all in the backdrop of long-standing concerns over mismanagement of the health service, sluggish education standards, and concerns that the Welsh executive is too powerful (perhaps an unintended side effect of the Second Assembly's "Bonfire"), believing they're beyond scrutiny - especially from what remains of the Welsh press.

This was exemplified further by the sudden decision to give a go-ahead to a controversial £1billion bypass of Newport in July 2014, which could amount to being the largest single capital investment in Welsh history through the use of borrowing powers due to be devolved as part of the Wales Bill. The Assembly barely had any time to scrutinise the process properly.

With under two years until Wales elects the Fifth Assembly, the only other significant development that could be considered historic is the proposed Well-being of Future Generations Bill. It's an odd law that would lock down "sustainability" (post-devolution Wales' favourite buzzword) on the statute books to address generational challenges and guide the long-term development of Wales.

Over the last two terms the National Assembly has matured considerably. What remains is the perennial matter as to whether the Welsh electorate is as mature, or as interested/engaged with it, as AMs would like us to be. The public aren't as divided about its existence as they once were, but it has hardly been taken to people's hearts either.

Part II will look at the failures during the first 15 years of devolution. Brace yourselves....

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Do Assembly plenary sessions need a revamp?

Will Carwyn and Andrew start arm wrestling over fishing boat regulations?
Do we need a more macho, confrontational Senedd?
I'm not convinced.

The National Assembly is back in session after Christmas, and the first big talking point is, unsurprisingly, about the Assembly itself - this time plenary debates, and First Minister's Jeopardy Questions in particular.

Both Leanne Wood (Plaid, South Wales Central) and Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central) raised concerns about how oral questions are answered in the Senedd by government ministers, and the procedures surrounding questions.

There was also the farce of an announcement being made by the Welsh Government via Twitter during the plenary session, while the First Minister himself wasn't providing any answer to a question relating to it. Whoop, whoop, whoop. Nyuk, nyuk, nyuk.

This little fact might take a few of you by surprise – I rarely watch Assembly proceedings, including FMQs.

I might watch the Senedd a half dozen times a year at most – if there's something important, like a big vote, or a debate on a subject that interests me. I use the Cofnod because I can search through it and it saves me time. I'm not around to follow Twitter feeds live, but I monitor other blogs too.

I say that as one of the more prominent, hardcore political anoraks in the whole country. To those who sit through them and who aren't paid to do so one way or another – I salute you. It's always comforting to know there's someone sadder than me out there.

Some might say that's an argument for not broadcasting it at all to save money or whatever, but you need an audiovisual record, simply to prove that transcripts and votes match what's said. It's also important to determine the tone by which questions are asked. I wish we had a Welsh C-Span or version of BBC Parliament, but I doubt that can be justified. Lest we forget S4C2.

I think AMs are unfairly criticised for the standard of debate. We have a very different system to Westminster. There's more consensus building and it seems as though they work on a first name basis. It's more casual. I prefer that. I reckon most AMs probably prefer that too.

I believe it's a bit more grown up than the "yah-boo" stuff in Westminster, but it might be a little too informal and relaxed. I think the Scottish Parliament balances it better.

I imagine one reason Andrew Davies, and other AMs, might want a shift to a Westminster "confrontational" style is because they have no indoor voice. As though shouting more loudly, and getting more worked up about something makes you stand out more. Perhaps that's right to a certain extent. However, it's hard to get excited about some of the stuff coming out of plenary or - if we're going to include written questions - how much Carwyn spends on Christmas cards.

We need to remember that the Assembly has a restricted scope within which to ask questions. Sometimes that means questions are very narrow or vague, leading to very narrow or glib answers. Look them up yourself and see how many times ministers are asked about "their priorities for X,Y, Z" or to "make a statement on X,Y,Z."

But I challenge anyone outside politics to put themselves in the position of an AM or Minister when criticising or defending policy. It probably looks easier than it actually is.

I'm reminded of my viva voce, where your dissertation is ripped apart in front of you by people who know what they're talking about. I imagine Assembly debate is a watered-down version of that, but week after week.

I don't think those criticising will have ever been challenged like that by someone of any real  standing before, and think it's a simple case of standing up and waffling on. AMs can't do that without looking like a plonker. Yet, I do think a minority of AMs do that occasionally, but not too often. No names mentioned.

However, the committees are as good as those in any of the other legislatures. I believe most of the AM's important work goes on there, not plenary. It's just not as "sexy". FMQs is just a fraction of the stuff that goes on in Cardiff Bay, but it's supposed to be the "highlight". It's not, is it? I'm not sure it ever has been, to be honest.

That's not to say there aren't any issues. The First Minister has a point when saying the opposition don't necessarily ask the right questions (from his perspective).

Carwyn Jones is a barrister. He's been professionally trained to use questions and answers to good effect. It comes naturally to him, maybe some other AMs too. That's not to say those AMs are smarter than the rest, just they know what makes a good question and they will know, instinctively, how to bat those questions away.

The trouble is, I believe he's become so used to that since becoming First Minister, he does it every bloody week. FMQs is a bit of a joke and part of the reason I don't watch it is, simply, questions aren't answered, they're generally thrown back at the questioner. Carwyn seems bored of it, and I don't blame him.

The standard of debate, whilst not perfect, has improved substantially down the years – I can tell that from transcripts alone. The Lib Dems have always been good at it. Jocelyn Davies (Plaid, South Wales East), has made excellent use of motions during plenary over the last few months on her party's behalf. The Conservatives are more than capable of delivering a sucker punch every now and again.

Notice how I've left out one group – Labour backbenchers.

How many well thought out questions and debates have come from the Labour benches the last year or so? Questions that don't involve praising the front bench, latest policy initiative or attacking the UK Government (directly or indirectly)?
Before he became a Deputy Minister, Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent) was quite good at it during the One Wales government.

A government should fear its backbenchers. One of Westminster's big plus points is that backbenchers wield quite considerable power. The same can be said of the Scottish Parliament. I'm not saying they should oppose everything for the sake of it, that would be stupid. However, effective critique of the government from their own side is the best way to hold said government to account. Ministers have to listen to them. I believe Labour backbench AMs hold far more power than they perhaps think they do, especially when there's no majority.
I don't think it comes down to abilities or skills, just that they're caught in an awkward arrangement and, perhaps, their questions duplicate one another. There's at least one glimmer of hope from the current lot – Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West). And even then, he's not perfect.

Maybe because there was such a high turnover of AMs in 2011, nobody wants to rock the boat in their first term. Some backbenchers could have their eyes on the front row, and don't want to ruin their chances with the boss.

Who's the most likely to make that step up at the moment? – Mark Drakeford.

Who's been, arguably, the most constructive critic of the Welsh Government this term from the Labour side? – Mark Drakeford.

That's not a coincidence. Think about it. Would a First Minister want to move a party loyalist nodding donkey to the front bench? Or one of the biggest, but friendlier, critics?

It wouldn't hurt opposition AMs, and their staff, reviewing how they present their arguments. But, far from criticising other parties for the standard of debate, I think Carwyn needs to turn around and look at his own people too.

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Senedd Watch - May 2011

Seeing how the Welsh Government has undergone a long overdue re-brand, "WAG Watch" now stands for Welsh Assembly & Government Watch - I guess.

• Labour made gains in the Assembly election, winning 30 seats, falling short of an overall majority. The Conservatives won an extra two seats but lost their leader Nick Bourne. Plaid Cymru had a disappointing night, losing 4 seats - including the party's deputy leader Helen Mary Jones. The Lib Dems only lost a single seat overall, but saw their share of the vote fall and lost 2 FPTP constituencies - including Cardiff Central.
• Paul Davies (Con, Preseli Pembrokeshire) was made interim leader of the Welsh Conservatives while a leadership contest gets underway. He has, however, ruled himself out of the race. A new leader is due to be announced on July 11^th. Andrew RT Davies (Con, South Wales Central) and Nick Ramsey (Con, Monmouthshire) are the only leadership candidates .
• The fourth National Assembly of Wales convened on 11^th May and began with a tribute to the late regional list AM for North Wales, Brynle Williams.
• Rosemary Butler (Lab, Newport West) was appointed as Llywydd unopposed, replacing Lord Dafydd Elis-Thomas, who stands down from the role after 12 years.
• David Melding and William Graham were both nominated for the post of Deputy Llywydd. David Melding AM (Con, South Wales Central) was elected by 46 votes to 12 in a secret ballot.
• Carwyn Jones AM (Lab, Bridgend) was appointed as First Minister unopposed.
• Ieuan Wyn Jones AM (Plaid, Ynys Mon) announced that he is to stand down as Plaid Cymru leader "in the first half of the Assembly term".
• Department of Work and Pensions statistics reveal that 23% of the population of Wales live in relative income poverty - the same rate as England but higher than Scotland (19%) and Northern Ireland (22%). 33% of children lived in relative income poverty, the highest rate of the home nations, Scotland having the lowest rate at 25%. 17% of pensioners in Wales lived in relative income poverty - the same rate as England, higher than Scotland (13%) but lower than Northern Ireland (21%)
• Simon Thomas AM (Plaid, Mid & West Wales) has called for the Welsh Government to publish a programme of government and "demonstrate their commitment to co-operation in order to get their plans through the Senedd".
• Kevin Davies AM (Lab, Llanelli) criticised comments made by former WJEC exam board chair, Jeff Jones, that the Welsh Baccalaureate was "an A level with a load on nonsense added on". This comes after news that Cardiff University refused to accept the qualification for a history and politics course.
• Two newly elected Lib Dem regional list AM's - Aled Roberts and John Dixon - were disqualified from the Assembly for retaining membership of organisations that AMs were barred from being members of. UKIP MEP John Bufton referred the pair to the police for electoral fraud.
• Unemployment in Wales fell sharply by 10,000, with the unemployment rate now exactly the same as the UK average at 7.7%. Unemployment and economic inactivity in Wales have also had sharper falls than the UK average compared to last year.
• First Minister Carwyn Jones described the UK Government's decision to downgrade Newport passport office as "extremely disappointing news".
• Around 1,500 people gathered outside the Senedd on May 24^th to protest against TAN 8, the UK and Welsh Government's policy to generate more renewable energy. Of particular concern were the building of new windfarms in Mid Wales and a power line from Montgomeryshire to Shrewsbury.
• Office of National Statistics data showed that 50,400 people from the rest of the UK moved to Wales while 48,500 left, with net inward migration of 1,900 in the twelve months to September 2010.
• Alun Ffred Jones AM (Plaid, Arfon) has written to Llywydd Rosemary Butler, criticising the Assembly Commission for not setting up committees quickly enough, saying that there was a sense of "lethargy" and that AMs were "pottering around". He criticised the Welsh Government for being slow in setting out a programme of government compared to the Scottish Government.
• Theodore Huckle QC, was appointed Consul General, the Assembly Government's senior legal advisor, on May 27^th.
• First Minister Carwyn Jones joined his counterparts in Scotland and Northern Ireland for a trilateral summit in Edinburgh on May 31^st. The meeting was to discuss shared agendas for the term ahead.
• Major projects announced this month include the start of the £35m Wrexham Industrial Estate Access Road(s), a proposed leisure resort on Anglesey that could create up to 600 jobs and a £77m refurbishment of Ysbyty Glan Clwyd in Bodelwyddan, Denbighshire.

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Paying the Price of Power - Election 2011 Results

Well I was on the ball with my predictions then......*facepalm*

• Plaid Cymru - and to a lesser extent the Lib Dems - slammed by resurgent Labour in Wales, who fall short of an overall majority.
• Nick Bourne loses seat while Welsh Conservatives enjoy a good night overall.
• Labour make gains in council elections in England, at the expense of Lib Dems. The Conservatives enjoy some local election gains as well.
• SNP triumphant in Scottish Parliament elections, at the expense of Labour and the Lib Dems, winning an overall majority for the first time. Pro-independence parties now dominate Holyrood. Jealous? Moi?

The 4^th National Assembly of Wales

Our newly elected AMs (Click to enlarge)

                              Prediction         Actual

Labour                         28                30 (+4)
Plaid Cymru                 13                11 (-4)
Conservatives            13                14 (+2)
Liberal Democrats        4                  5 (-1)
Greens                           1                  0 (n/c)
UKIP                               1                  0 (n/c)
Independents                0                  0 (-1)

Labour

A good night, prevented by the Aberconwy result from being an excellent one. There's no question they run a very effective campaign off the back of Westminster issues, and in Carwyn Jones they have someone who people might find trustworthy and a safe pair of hands.

They'll be pleased to have retaken Llanelli, even if it was by the slimmest of margins, and they'll also be pleased they comprehensively held off Ron Davies' challenge in Caerphilly. Their biggest achievement in my view, was turning the capital red. Once that happened all bets were off.

They should be cautious that they don't get too carried away. I predict they will still end up going into a coalition of some kind. 30 seats is just too awkward.

Conservatives

An excellent night, spoiled by the loss of Nick Bourne and Jonathan Morgan. They've conducted a low-key campaign but avoided some of the mud slinging that's happened - especially between Labour and Plaid.

I doubt Nick Bourne would've seen out the coming Assembly term as leader anyway, so a leadership contest was always on the cards in my opinion, it's just happening one or two years earlier. He leaves a very strong legacy however, and something the Welsh Conservatives can build on. I just hope that his successor continues to carve out a distinct Welsh brand and voice or many of their gains could be easy pickings in 2016.

They might not show it on their faces, but they'll be delighted with the result.

Liberal Democrats

What started off as a poor night, ended up a not so bad a night, especially when you compare it to the English local elections and the Scottish Parliament election. Losing just one seat in the face of such protest isn't bad at all.

They should be humble and not play that up too much, they could very easily have been on 4 or less seats had a few hundred votes gone the right way. They clearly benefited from the additional member system the most, to Plaid's detriment.

I fully expect them to be Labour's first port of call in any coalition negotiations, if Labour decide to do so. I'd call that a result.

Plaid Cymru

I make no bones about it, Plaid had an absolute stinker. I would set a Plaid "floor" at 12 seats and anything below that is an awful result.

Of course, had a few hundred votes gone the right way, they could've very easily ended up with 13 or 14 seats which would've been a good result all in all. However, you can see that Plaid and the SNP are now on completely different planets when it comes to political and constitutional progress.

Plaid secured a successful referendum on law making powers. That's a victory and a feather in their cap. However, when the "messy divorce" with Labour happened, they played it the wrong way. They will have to learn to rise above Labour's tricks during elections and carve out a proper USP for themselves.

A period in opposition will do them good, and it's not all bad news, with some fresh faces coming in like Simon Thomas, Llyr Huws Griffiths and Lyndsey Whittle. However, when it comes to talk of leadership changes, I don't see anyone who could realistically step up to the job.

None of the right candidates are in the right place. Adam Price, Nerys Evans and HMJ can't be elected/re-elected to the Assembly until 2016 at the earliest (barring a by-election), Elfyn Llwyd and Dafydd Wigley are down the M4, I doubt any of the other re-elected AMs would want to run for the leadership, and it would be presumptuous for any of the "new" Plaid members to make a run at it.

The buck doesn't always stop at the leader. Plaid need to allow a short period of introspection and come out fighting. Labour are going to disappoint a lot of people over the next five years, and there will be only one alternative to the three other parties - all of whom in power in some shape or form. Plaid need to position themselves to take advantage of it.

Minor Parties

The Greens must be gutted. It seems as though Labour voters didn't use their second vote for them after all and ended up wasting them. I thought they were nailed on for a seat, but polls aren't always right. I think they'll do well in next year's local elections though, especially in Cardiff.

UKIP clearly couldn't get their vote out and didn't do anywhere near as well as predicted. Paradoxically, I would have UKIP supporters in Wales down as the sort who wouldn't vote in an Assembly election anyway. In the long term, have a decent enough base to build on though. I imagine they'll get there in the end.

The BNP saw their share of the vote drop. Good.

The various Socialist sects had a fairly solid showing, especially the Socialist Labour Party who out polled the BNP. If they had stood as one ticket, in the manner of "Die Linke" instead of several bald men competing over a hammer and sickle, they could've pushed UKIP.

English Democrats lose their deposit once again. Take the hint.

The Christian People's Alliance must be such a great party that even their members forgot to vote for them. Expect their result to pop up in "and finally..." news stories and political almanacs. The Christian Party proper polled less than 1%. "Jesus don't want me for a sunbeam".

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Election 2011 : Predictions

I've been conservative in my predictions, just as I was with the Assembly referendum. I'm basing this on a "no big shock" factor. That means incumbents by and large holding their seats. Labour can reach 30 or 31 seats, but it's going to be a very, very big ask.

If Labour don't win Llanelli, Carmarthen West, Cardiff North, Aberconwy, Clwyd West and hold Caerphilly, their chances of a majority are dead in the water.

This election will be won or lost in Mid & West Wales and the North Wales regional list.

I think MH over at Syniadau has reached a similar conclusion, albeit with different constituency and regional permutations.

Labour have burned too many bridges with Plaid for a One Wales 2 and I predict will opt for a mini-rainbow coalition with the Liberal Democrats and my predicted Green AM for South Wales Central (likely on condition of dropping support for nuclear power, which will be more difficult than first appears). This will give a slightly shaky, but workable, majority of 3 (not including possible appointments of Llywydd and Deputy Llywydd).

A UKIP AM being elected - and I predict they will make a gain on the regional list - will end any chance of a rainbow coalition.


TL;DR Version

Labour                  28 (+2)
Lib Dems                4 (-2)
Conservatives    13 (+1)
Plaid Cymru         13 (-2)
Green                     1 (+1)
UKIP                       1 (+1)
Independents        0 (-1)

• Turnout in the low 40's
• Labour to fall short of an overall majority, will go into Lab-Lib-Green coalition.
• Labour to gain Carmarthen West & South Pembs., Clwyd West, Blaenau Gwent and hold Caerphilly. Regional list results will prevent them reaching 30-31 seats. Vote share will rise significantly but mainly in constituency seats they already hold.
• Lib Dems to hold Cardiff Central, but lose Montgomeryshire to Tories. Vote share to fall by as much as 7-8% nationally compared to 2007.
• Plaid to lose Aberconwy to Tories, but should hold their other constituencies and regional list seats. Vote share will fall by 3-4% nationally.
• Greens and UKIP to get first AMs in South Wales Central and North Wales respectively.
• Nick Bourne to remain leader of the opposition. Conservatives to hold Cardiff North. Vote share to stay stable, or even rise slightly by 2-3% nationally and put them into second place.

AV Referendum

I haven't blogged a lot about this because to be frank, I couldn't care less. This is a sop compromise and AV isn't any proper, radical alternative. If it were AV+ or STV - now you're talking. I voted yes though, as at least it's a step forward in electoral reform albeit a baby step.

I think the overall UK result will be a "no" - probably something like 56-44. It all depends on how many people vote in England. A lower turnout there will help the yes campaign in my opinion, as votes in the devolved nations - which might lean more towards a yes vote - will have greater significance.

It will open a can of worms if a yes result was dependent on votes from Scotland in particular, and if the SNP are returned to government.


Predicted make up of the 4^th National Assembly

Our new AM's? (Click to enlarge)

South Wales West

No changes at all at constituency or regional level, except in the voting percentages. That's a nice and easy prediction dealt with.


South Wales Central

Labour will hold all of their constituencies, and will run the Lib Dems close in Cardiff Central. My gut feeling is that that Lib Dems will retain Cardiff Central by the skin of their teeth, which should secure a second Plaid seat on the regional list. The Tories should also hang on to Cardiff North but again it's a close run thing. It's results like this that will determine if Labour get a majority or not.

This will be one of the areas where Tory, Lib Dem and Plaid support will fall hardest. Greens will be able to get themselves on the regional list at the expense of a second Plaid or Conservative seat. I'm going to go for the Conservatives, who I believe will face a sharper fall in support than Plaid which means the regrettable loss of David Melding.

South Wales East

Like South Wales Central, this is where Lib Dem and Plaid support will fall sharpest. The biggest question mark is over Caerphilly. I think it will go to a recount but I'm not sure what impact the idiotic and childish actions of Wayne David will have on it.

I'm going to make a conservative estimate and say that Labour will hold Caerphilly on the night, which will be a big disappointment for Plaid, but should mean they keep hold of a regional seat. Other than an easy gain for Labour in Blaenau Gwent there'll be no other changes at constituency level.

I think Plaid will probably come off worse than the Tories here in the regional vote, and in a flip side to South Wales Central, the Tories will "gain" a second regional seat. Contentiously held by Mohammad Ashgar since he crossed the floor.

Mid & West Wales

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire will be another very close fight, probably to a recount once again. I predict that Labour will come out on top, which could result in 2 Tory list seats. Labour will probably push Plaid very close in Llanelli. I wouldn't rule out a change of hands there, but I think it's unlikely and Plaid will hold Llanelli....just. I also think the Conservatives will gain Montgomery as they did last year, which will be something of a blow to the Lib Dems.

North Wales

Most of the interesting battles are going to be here. I predict Aberconwy and Clwyd West will change hands, to the Conservatives and Labour respectively. There's also the possibility of a three-way fight in Clwyd South as well, but Labour should hang on. I think there's a long-odds possibility of shock on Ynys Mon, though I think Plaid should hold it. The Lib Dems could be wiped out in north Wales - to either Plaid's or UKIP's advantage. I think UKIP might just have the edge though if they can get their vote out.


Other Predictions

• Plenty of shots of glum faced Plaid Cymru and Lib Dem activists at counts.
• Plenty of shots of cheering Labour and Conservative activists mixed with concerned looking ones in another part of Wales.
• Turnout will be described as "poor" if it's below 50%, and there'll be lots of talk about how the Assembly "hasn't been taken to the hearts of the people of Wales" until the first results come through.
• Countless mentions of "a more powerful Assembly" in the first 10-20 minutes.
• Mentions of the delayed North Wales count "ruining the spectacle of election night".
• Lots of "coming home to Labour" talk, with Paul Murphy and Peter Hain leading it with referrals to "Tory cuts" in at least every other sentence.
• Every party will say they're hearing "good things from (X constituency/region)".
• Ieuan Wyn Jones will take 5 minutes to say something that could be said in 30 seconds.
• Kirsty Williams will say "part of the burden of being in Government in Westminster".
• All the party leaders will say they "haven't ruled anything out" with regard coalition deals.
• Labour will say that the "people of Wales clearly want a Labour/Labour-led government" regardless of how many seats they win.

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