Election 2011 : Predictions

I've been conservative in my predictions, just as I was with the Assembly referendum. I'm basing this on a "no big shock" factor. That means incumbents by and large holding their seats. Labour can reach 30 or 31 seats, but it's going to be a very, very big ask.

If Labour don't win Llanelli, Carmarthen West, Cardiff North, Aberconwy, Clwyd West and hold Caerphilly, their chances of a majority are dead in the water.

This election will be won or lost in Mid & West Wales and the North Wales regional list.

I think MH over at Syniadau has reached a similar conclusion, albeit with different constituency and regional permutations.

Labour have burned too many bridges with Plaid for a One Wales 2 and I predict will opt for a mini-rainbow coalition with the Liberal Democrats and my predicted Green AM for South Wales Central (likely on condition of dropping support for nuclear power, which will be more difficult than first appears). This will give a slightly shaky, but workable, majority of 3 (not including possible appointments of Llywydd and Deputy Llywydd).

A UKIP AM being elected - and I predict they will make a gain on the regional list - will end any chance of a rainbow coalition.


TL;DR Version

Labour                  28 (+2)
Lib Dems                4 (-2)
Conservatives    13 (+1)
Plaid Cymru         13 (-2)
Green                     1 (+1)
UKIP                       1 (+1)
Independents        0 (-1)

• Turnout in the low 40's
• Labour to fall short of an overall majority, will go into Lab-Lib-Green coalition.
• Labour to gain Carmarthen West & South Pembs., Clwyd West, Blaenau Gwent and hold Caerphilly. Regional list results will prevent them reaching 30-31 seats. Vote share will rise significantly but mainly in constituency seats they already hold.
• Lib Dems to hold Cardiff Central, but lose Montgomeryshire to Tories. Vote share to fall by as much as 7-8% nationally compared to 2007.
• Plaid to lose Aberconwy to Tories, but should hold their other constituencies and regional list seats. Vote share will fall by 3-4% nationally.
• Greens and UKIP to get first AMs in South Wales Central and North Wales respectively.
• Nick Bourne to remain leader of the opposition. Conservatives to hold Cardiff North. Vote share to stay stable, or even rise slightly by 2-3% nationally and put them into second place.

AV Referendum

I haven't blogged a lot about this because to be frank, I couldn't care less. This is a sop compromise and AV isn't any proper, radical alternative. If it were AV+ or STV - now you're talking. I voted yes though, as at least it's a step forward in electoral reform albeit a baby step.

I think the overall UK result will be a "no" - probably something like 56-44. It all depends on how many people vote in England. A lower turnout there will help the yes campaign in my opinion, as votes in the devolved nations - which might lean more towards a yes vote - will have greater significance.

It will open a can of worms if a yes result was dependent on votes from Scotland in particular, and if the SNP are returned to government.


Predicted make up of the 4^th National Assembly

Our new AM's? (Click to enlarge)

South Wales West

No changes at all at constituency or regional level, except in the voting percentages. That's a nice and easy prediction dealt with.


South Wales Central

Labour will hold all of their constituencies, and will run the Lib Dems close in Cardiff Central. My gut feeling is that that Lib Dems will retain Cardiff Central by the skin of their teeth, which should secure a second Plaid seat on the regional list. The Tories should also hang on to Cardiff North but again it's a close run thing. It's results like this that will determine if Labour get a majority or not.

This will be one of the areas where Tory, Lib Dem and Plaid support will fall hardest. Greens will be able to get themselves on the regional list at the expense of a second Plaid or Conservative seat. I'm going to go for the Conservatives, who I believe will face a sharper fall in support than Plaid which means the regrettable loss of David Melding.

South Wales East

Like South Wales Central, this is where Lib Dem and Plaid support will fall sharpest. The biggest question mark is over Caerphilly. I think it will go to a recount but I'm not sure what impact the idiotic and childish actions of Wayne David will have on it.

I'm going to make a conservative estimate and say that Labour will hold Caerphilly on the night, which will be a big disappointment for Plaid, but should mean they keep hold of a regional seat. Other than an easy gain for Labour in Blaenau Gwent there'll be no other changes at constituency level.

I think Plaid will probably come off worse than the Tories here in the regional vote, and in a flip side to South Wales Central, the Tories will "gain" a second regional seat. Contentiously held by Mohammad Ashgar since he crossed the floor.

Mid & West Wales

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire will be another very close fight, probably to a recount once again. I predict that Labour will come out on top, which could result in 2 Tory list seats. Labour will probably push Plaid very close in Llanelli. I wouldn't rule out a change of hands there, but I think it's unlikely and Plaid will hold Llanelli....just. I also think the Conservatives will gain Montgomery as they did last year, which will be something of a blow to the Lib Dems.

North Wales

Most of the interesting battles are going to be here. I predict Aberconwy and Clwyd West will change hands, to the Conservatives and Labour respectively. There's also the possibility of a three-way fight in Clwyd South as well, but Labour should hang on. I think there's a long-odds possibility of shock on Ynys Mon, though I think Plaid should hold it. The Lib Dems could be wiped out in north Wales - to either Plaid's or UKIP's advantage. I think UKIP might just have the edge though if they can get their vote out.


Other Predictions

• Plenty of shots of glum faced Plaid Cymru and Lib Dem activists at counts.
• Plenty of shots of cheering Labour and Conservative activists mixed with concerned looking ones in another part of Wales.
• Turnout will be described as "poor" if it's below 50%, and there'll be lots of talk about how the Assembly "hasn't been taken to the hearts of the people of Wales" until the first results come through.
• Countless mentions of "a more powerful Assembly" in the first 10-20 minutes.
• Mentions of the delayed North Wales count "ruining the spectacle of election night".
• Lots of "coming home to Labour" talk, with Paul Murphy and Peter Hain leading it with referrals to "Tory cuts" in at least every other sentence.
• Every party will say they're hearing "good things from (X constituency/region)".
• Ieuan Wyn Jones will take 5 minutes to say something that could be said in 30 seconds.
• Kirsty Williams will say "part of the burden of being in Government in Westminster".
• All the party leaders will say they "haven't ruled anything out" with regard coalition deals.
• Labour will say that the "people of Wales clearly want a Labour/Labour-led government" regardless of how many seats they win.