- Plaid Cymru - and to a lesser extent the Lib Dems - slammed by resurgent Labour in Wales, who fall short of an overall majority.
- Nick Bourne loses seat while Welsh Conservatives enjoy a good night overall.
- Labour make gains in council elections in England, at the expense of Lib Dems. The Conservatives enjoy some local election gains as well.
- SNP triumphant in Scottish Parliament elections, at the expense of Labour and the Lib Dems, winning an overall majority for the first time. Pro-independence parties now dominate Holyrood. Jealous? Moi?
The 4th National Assembly of Wales
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| Our newly elected AMs (Click to enlarge) |
Prediction Actual
Labour 28 30 (+4)
Plaid Cymru 13 11 (-4)
Conservatives 13 14 (+2)
Liberal Democrats 4 5 (-1)
Greens 1 0 (n/c)
UKIP 1 0 (n/c)
Independents 0 0 (-1)
Labour
A good night, prevented by the Aberconwy result from being an excellent one. There's no question they run a very effective campaign off the back of Westminster issues, and in Carwyn Jones they have someone who people might find trustworthy and a safe pair of hands.
They'll be pleased to have retaken Llanelli, even if it was by the slimmest of margins, and they'll also be pleased they comprehensively held off Ron Davies' challenge in Caerphilly. Their biggest achievement in my view, was turning the capital red. Once that happened all bets were off.
They should be cautious that they don't get too carried away. I predict they will still end up going into a coalition of some kind. 30 seats is just too awkward.
Conservatives
An excellent night, spoiled by the loss of Nick Bourne and Jonathan Morgan. They've conducted a low-key campaign but avoided some of the mud slinging that's happened - especially between Labour and Plaid.
I doubt Nick Bourne would've seen out the coming Assembly term as leader anyway, so a leadership contest was always on the cards in my opinion, it's just happening one or two years earlier. He leaves a very strong legacy however, and something the Welsh Conservatives can build on. I just hope that his successor continues to carve out a distinct Welsh brand and voice or many of their gains could be easy pickings in 2016.
They might not show it on their faces, but they'll be delighted with the result.
Liberal Democrats
What started off as a poor night, ended up a not so bad a night, especially when you compare it to the English local elections and the Scottish Parliament election. Losing just one seat in the face of such protest isn't bad at all.
They should be humble and not play that up too much, they could very easily have been on 4 or less seats had a few hundred votes gone the right way. They clearly benefited from the additional member system the most, to Plaid's detriment.
I fully expect them to be Labour's first port of call in any coalition negotiations, if Labour decide to do so. I'd call that a result.
Plaid Cymru
I make no bones about it, Plaid had an absolute stinker. I would set a Plaid "floor" at 12 seats and anything below that is an awful result.
Of course, had a few hundred votes gone the right way, they could've very easily ended up with 13 or 14 seats which would've been a good result all in all. However, you can see that Plaid and the SNP are now on completely different planets when it comes to political and constitutional progress.
Plaid secured a successful referendum on law making powers. That's a victory and a feather in their cap. However, when the "messy divorce" with Labour happened, they played it the wrong way. They will have to learn to rise above Labour's tricks during elections and carve out a proper USP for themselves.
A period in opposition will do them good, and it's not all bad news, with some fresh faces coming in like Simon Thomas, Llyr Huws Griffiths and Lyndsey Whittle. However, when it comes to talk of leadership changes, I don't see anyone who could realistically step up to the job.
None of the right candidates are in the right place. Adam Price, Nerys Evans and HMJ can't be elected/re-elected to the Assembly until 2016 at the earliest (barring a by-election), Elfyn Llwyd and Dafydd Wigley are down the M4, I doubt any of the other re-elected AMs would want to run for the leadership, and it would be presumptuous for any of the "new" Plaid members to make a run at it.
The buck doesn't always stop at the leader. Plaid need to allow a short period of introspection and come out fighting. Labour are going to disappoint a lot of people over the next five years, and there will be only one alternative to the three other parties - all of whom in power in some shape or form. Plaid need to position themselves to take advantage of it.
Minor Parties
The Greens must be gutted. It seems as though Labour voters didn't use their second vote for them after all and ended up wasting them. I thought they were nailed on for a seat, but polls aren't always right. I think they'll do well in next year's local elections though, especially in Cardiff.
UKIP clearly couldn't get their vote out and didn't do anywhere near as well as predicted. Paradoxically, I would have UKIP supporters in Wales down as the sort who wouldn't vote in an Assembly election anyway. In the long term, have a decent enough base to build on though. I imagine they'll get there in the end.
The BNP saw their share of the vote drop. Good.
The various Socialist sects had a fairly solid showing, especially the Socialist Labour Party who out polled the BNP. If they had stood as one ticket, in the manner of "Die Linke" instead of several bald men competing over a hammer and sickle, they could've pushed UKIP.
English Democrats lose their deposit once again. Take the hint.
The Christian People's Alliance must be such a great party that even their members forgot to vote for them. Expect their result to pop up in "and finally..." news stories and political almanacs. The Christian Party proper polled less than 1%. "Jesus don't want me for a sunbeam".
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