Making the Metro

(Pic : BBC Wales)

At the end of November the Welsh Government launched the first publicity campaign for the proposed South Wales Metro after the project was given a firm go ahead earlier in 2015 (Metro a Go Go).

It's probably the most significant public transport proposal in Welsh history, and echoes similar projects in other city regions outside London like the Greater Manchester Metrolink, Tyne Wear Metro and Dublin's DART and Luas systems.

Despite the glossy brochures and posters now being published or put up, the Welsh Government haven't really told us anything we didn't already know....anyone would think there was an Assembly election around the corner.

They're reportedly now leaving decisions on the format and planning of the Metro to "market testing". In English, that means the Welsh Government are waiting to see what potential operators, consultants and infrastructure companies believe would be the best way to run the network.

So it's worth flagging up a number of the challenges and key decision points that need to be addressed as the project develops further.

Who will be served by the Metro?

(Pic : Welsh Government via BBC Wales)

The map above gives us an idea, and it echoes one I drew up back in 2011 (pic). Essentially the Metro network would encompass Cardiff, Newport, the Gwent and Glamorgan valleys, Vale of Glamorgan, Monmouthshire (though it's unclear if it will go to Monmouth itself) and Bridgend. The total estimated population of this area in 2014 was just under 1.5million, or about half of Wales' population.

On its own the map is useless. It might tell us what towns, communities and cities the Metro will serve, but what it doesn't tell us is what form of transport each of those different coloured lines will take.

What format should the Metro take?

This is one of the most significant issues currently facing the project and the main reason the Welsh Government decided to pass the idea off to "market testing". In reality it's likely to encompass all of the options below depending on which areas are being served, but what we don't yet know is to what extent and precisely where.

Option 1 : Heavy Rail (aka. S-Bahn)

The Valley Lines are already an "S-Bahn" network, but there are capacity problems.
(Pic : © Copyright Jaggery and licensed for reuse under the Creative Commons Licence)

Advantages :

• The infrastructure's already there, we're familiar with it and we already know things like capacity and the number of services it can accommodate.
• It would fit in well with proposals for a not-for-dividend rail company from 2018.
• Rolling stock can be moved between train operating companies relatively easily, much more easily than trams.
• Trains have higher capacities than buses and trams, can (usually) be joined together to make longer trains and travel at higher speeds over longer distances.
• Network Rail would be involved and the project would have full access to their expertise.

Disadvantages :

• It would be costlier to extend services (particularly after electrification) and much harder to build completely new lines.
• Even with electrification, journey times over the shortest distances are longer than trams and there's a limit to how many trains a line can accommodate.
• New rolling stock is generally very expensive, so it's likely the system would have to make do with cascaded rolling stock ("hand me downs") from other rail franchises.
• ....Network Rail would be involved (see also : Network Rail - Taking the Welsh Government for a ride?).

Option 2 : Light Rail (aka. trams, tram-trains)

Any trams used on the Metro would have to be "high floor" like Manchester's.
(Pic : theplanner.co.uk)

Advantages :

• It's much easier to extend because the engineering requirements are less than that for heavy rail, meaning services can be extended at street level, include sharper turns and run at steeper gradients.
• It requires less maintenance because there are fewer working parts.
• Trams are quieter than normal trains and often offer a smoother ride.
• It would enable much more frequent services because trams can use "by sight" signalling, meaning drivers wouldn't have to follow a formal signal system like those used on heavy rail and can safely travel closer together.
• If it were powered by renewable sources, it would be as close to zero-carbon public transport you can get.

Disadvantages :

• Light rail operations could find itself outside the scope of the not-for-dividend rail company and wouldn't for a part of the next Wales & Borders franchise. That could cause conflict with rail unions as tram drivers are usually paid less than train drivers.
• Tram facilities are generally basic; more like a bus than a commuter train. You rarely see trams with toilets for example.
• Trams would have to be "high-floor", like those in Manchester, to enable them to use current heavy rail infrastructure in the Valleys. This would also increase costs of extending the network onto streets.
• Light rail services generally can't operate on the same lines as heavy rail services; they would have to be segregated somehow. This means parts of the Metro network – like the Vale of Glamorgan and Bridgend – can't be served by trams.
• A new fleet of trams/tram-trains would been to be purchased, and the cost could run into tens of millions of pounds.
• Introducing overhead wires on roads could, but not necessarily would, cause accidents.

Option 3 : Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)

BRT has been mentioned for north-west Cardiff and Newport.
(Pic : Welsh Government)

Advantages :

• Requires very little new infrastructure as buses can use ordinary roads or bus lanes for much of their journey.
• Much, much easier to extend services – as long as there's a road in and out, it can be served by BRT. This means the Metro can be easily extended to places where rail corridors have been built over like, for example, Blackwood and Tredegar.
• You can run as many services as you like without evoking the same safety concerns as rail and light rail.
• Significantly lower running and construction costs than both heavy rail and light rail.

Disadvantages :

• BRT can still be caught in general road traffic, even with segregated bus lanes and/or guide tracks.
• BRT would require some separate infrastructure from local and long-distance buses and this could cause confusion for passengers.
• It's not good over longer distances unless you have coach-style facilities.
• Buses have lower capacities than either light rail or heavy rail.
• Doesn't have the same pull for investors as light rail or underground metro systems; "trams on the cheap."
• Unless we're going to use electric or hydrogen buses, it can be just as environmentally damaging as any other form of road transport.

How would we use the Metro?

(Pic : BBC Wales)

There are two main issues here – integrated transport and integrated ticketing.

Integrated transport is the principle that we should be able to change modes of transport as easily and efficiently as possible, whether that's from car to train or from bike to tram. This means the Metro is going to have to provide proper facilities for this "modal shift" – which could include more park and ride spaces and well as proper facilities at stations (and on board transport) for cyclists and the disabled.

Integrated ticketing means being able to use the same method of payment on all parts of the Metro – like London's Oyster Card. That means no more faffing about looking for exact change to use buses, and no more having to purchase separate paper tickets to switch from one mode of transport to another.

A "Welsh Oyster Card" (which ideally would be used throughout Wales, no just the Metro) has been talked about for ages, and although some smart cards have been introduced, little else has happened to date, mainly because of too many different bus and train operators as well as the technical requirements for such a system.

Who should run the Metro?

The Welsh Government have established a not-for-dividend company, Transport for Wales, which will deliver the new rail franchise from 2018 as well as the Metro project. The big problem there is bus services are run by municipal (Cardiff Bus, Newport Bus) and private companies while supported bus services are subsidised by local authorities.

It's unclear whether Transport for Wales will run all public transport in south east Wales, or just Metro services. It's also unclear whether it would be accountable to the City Region, the post-reorganisation local authorities, the Welsh Government or all of them to a degree.

How much will the Metro cost?

That depends on a number of things like : which transport method will be used, what new infrastructure would be required to accommodate those transport methods, the cost of new vehicles, depots, rolling stock etc.

Also, it would mean the Welsh Government and/or local authorities as part of the city region dipping into their capital funds. If those funds are running low it could extend the timetable of the project or result in us ending up with a system "done on the cheap" and not fully meeting its ambitions.

It's expected the Metro will result in an "agglomeration effect" in south east Wales. I've mentioned that before as one of the main reasons why the Welsh economy is struggling. In effect, it'll mean that south east Wales will become a genuine metropolitan area – a "Greater Cardiff" – in the same way as London, Glasgow or Manchester.

This could boost the Welsh economy by up to £3.3billion (pdf p10), and based on a standard ratio of £1.76 generated for every £1 spent, that puts the potential price tag of the Metro at £1.9billion over the lifetime of the project (a figure of £1.7billion has been cited before). That money can come from multiple sources, including the Welsh Government (via borrowing or capital), the European Union or the Cardiff city region "city deal".

How long will the Metro take to develop?

The new Ebbw Vale Town station is supposed to be a demonstration of the Metro.
(Pic : Network Rail)

The project has been "phased". Phase 1 – as it's mis-described - is actually a very routine project to redouble part of the Ebbw Vale line. It shouldn't have been included in my opinion as citing such a small project as part of a grand Metro vision isn't the best way to go about things.

Phase 2 is when the real action starts, and it's expected to last between 2016-2023. This includes electrification of the Valley Lines and the establishment of a new rail franchise.

Phase 3, described as "beyond 2023", could see conversion of the Valley Lines to light rail and a number of extensions to the Metro such as north west Cardiff or Caerphilly-Newport. There's little mention of roll out of BRT if it forms part of the Metro.