Westminster 2015 : How have the Coalition performed?

As of Monday, every MP will be unemployed and scrounging for votes. So it's fitting
to kick them when they're down, as the Cameron administration know all about that.
(Pic : millenniumhotels.co.uk)

With the formal dissolution of the UK parliament coming on Monday, the time's come to kick-start my coverage of the 2015 House of Commons election.

It would be best to begin with a look at how the Conservative-Lib Dem government of David Cameron and Nick Clegg have performed. Throughout my posts on the campaign I'm only going to look at non-devolved areas, and for this exercise I'll pick 4 or 5 policy decisions that stand out. There's no way I'm going to pin the blame on anything happening in health or education on Westminster - that's for next year.

Economic Policy & Taxation

Electrification is, at long last, coming to parts of Wales, but despite
infrastructure investment, are part of the "recovery" a mirage?
(Pic : Railway Gazette)

• ++ Increasing the income tax threshold
• + Rail electrification in south Wales (and elsewhere)
• - No Barnett Formula consequentials as a result of High Speed 2
• - Wages failing to keep up with inflation.
• - - Lib Dems breaking promise to not lift the cap on tuition fees

Increasing the income tax threshold was a Lib Dem idea, and a real feather in their cap as it takes many low-paid workers out of income tax altogether.

The forthcoming electrification of the Great Western main line is a major infrastructure investment that was long overdue. Unfortunately, this is offset by the lack of Barnett consequentials from the English High Speed 2 project, which will have negligible benefit for Wales and could see the Welsh Government missing out on up to £3billion (Will High Speed 2 benefit Wales?).

Although overall incomes are reportedly back to the pre-recession norm, they've failed to keep up with inflation over the same period, making people worse off in real terms. Things might be easing as inflation has fallen to zero, but it's a bit late.

The Lib Dems reneging on their tuition fees promise was one of the biggest bald-faced lies in modern political history. It not only resulted in rioting, but a large bill for the Welsh Government due to their own slightly-botched policy (Welsh tuition fee policy under scrutiny) of paying part of the tuition fees for Welsh students regardless of where they study.

Foreign Affairs, Europe & International Development

• + Keeping promise to maintain overseas aid programmes.
• / Response to the Ukraine and Syrian civil wars
• / Promising an "in-out" referendum on EU membership
• - EU budget rows
• - - Threatening to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights

A mixed bag. There's definitely been some good stuff on the foreign policy front, however that's offset with the unnecessarily brusque attitude towards the EU – which in some circumstances has had a direct impact on Wales (Perfidious Albion and where it leaves Wales). The threat from the Conservatives to withdraw from the ECHR – which was set up to prevent the horrors of the 1930s-40s being repeated on the same scale every again (Human Rights on the Assembly Agenda) - is a particular low point.

The issue of an "in-out" referendum is likely to be brought up as an election issue, especially with UKIP in play. The likelihood is that, at the moment, the UK would vote to remain within the EU, but there's nothing concrete on the table yet, and it's unlikely there will be any major renegotiation of the UK's terms of membership.

The response to the Syrian and Ukrainian crises has been measured, if not exactly proactive. The House of Commons made the right decision to stay out of Syria, made all the more wiser by the rise of ISIS. Likewise, there's very little the UK can do on Ukraine without risking a serious confrontation with Russia.

Defence

The 2011 Libya campaign could be considered a short-term military success,
but the British arms industry has an ugly side that doesn't get enough attention.
(Pic : The Guardian)

• + Response to the 2014-15 ebola epidemic
• / 2011 Libya campaign
• / Reorganisation of forces with greater role for reservists
• - - Arms deals to the Middle East
• - - Committing to a renewal of the Trident nuclear arsenal (date unknown).

With the Russian bear awakening, the issue of defence – which isn't normally an election issue during peacetime – has perhaps come to the fore in a way not seen since Cold War.

In many respects, the government has improved its defence policy on their predecessors. The response to the Libyan Civil War was proportionate (though will certainly have long-term consequences), as was the response to the ebola epidemic. The Prime Minister listened when the House of Commons voted against military action in Syria too.

While the response to "events" has been solid enough, in terms of long-term strategy there's a lot of confusion. It seems this government has been torn between what it would like the UK's defence role to be and what they are willing to stump up to make that happen. There'll be plenty of shiny new toys, but the smallest military (in manpower terms) since the 18^th century to use them.

Austerity has hit defence as hard than any other government department, yet ironically/bafflingly, the Coalition is still pressing for a Trident replacement (Rust in Peace....Trident?) believing it's necessary even if it's – strategically - a complete waste of money and effort. Likewise, despite wanting to use hard and soft power to promote peace, the arms trade with autocratic Middle Eastern countries hasn't exactly suffered since the Arab Spring.

Criminal Justice

• ++ Sustained falls in crime (in spite of cuts)
• + Increase in reports of rape
• / Creation of Police & Crime Commissioners (PCCs) in EnglandandWales (outside London).
• - - Prison overcrowding
• - - Voting against giving immunity from prosecution under the Official Secrets Act to police whistleblowers in child sex abuse cases

One of the few miracles the Coalition have performed is that despite cuts to policing, there've been sustained falls in recorded crime – even to record lows. The fall between 2014 and 2013 was as much as 11%, and reportedly down by as much as 20% since 2010.

There's been a far greater emphasis on rape, child abuse (Operation Yewtree etc) and things like female gential mutilation (FGM) during this term than previous terms, and that's long overdue and has led to an increase in reports. However, increases in reports don't mean every case will result in a conviction.

One of the flagship policies has been the creation of directly-elected Police & Crime Commissioners. I can understand the thinking behind PCCs, and I don't think that by themselves they are good or bad, but I don't think it's really made much on an impact on the public and were hardly well-received. It's quite likely they'll be gone in the next term.

One of the more concerning reports emerging over the last few months is that overcrowding in Welsh prisons – especially Cardiff & Swansea – was reaching dangerous levels. You can argue that too many people are being sent to prison in the first place, and proposals like those for a "super prison" in Wrexham are unlikely to change this attitude.

In one last low point of this government, the Conservatives (Guto Bebb a notable exception) and the Liberal Democrats recently voted against an amendment which would've guaranteed protection for police whisteblowers in serious child abuse cases – like the Westminster paedophile ring - from being prosecuted under the Official Secrets Act. Here's the full list of how MPs voted.
Welfare, Pensions & Unemployment

Although unemployment has fallen and reforms to taxes have (arguably) put more money
in workers' pockets, as you would expect from a Conservative-led government the
poor and needy have been hit hardest by their reforms.
(Pic : ITV Wales)

• ++ Reductions in unemployment to pre-recession levels.
• + Auto-enrolment on workplace pensions
• - Continuing Labour's disability assessments.
• - - Botched introduction of Universal Credit.
• - - The "Bedroom Tax".

Statistically, you have to praise the low levels of unemployment. On the ground, it's likely to be a different story with an increase in part-time work and zero hour contracts. Likewise, the introduction of auto-enrolment for workplace pension schemes might go some way to helping people in low-paid jobs save for retirement – pensions themselves being a ticking time bomb.

Then there's the not so good. Iain Duncan Smith has arguably produced one of the most inept ministerial performances in modern UK political history with his bungling of the Universal Credit (UC). "Government" and "massive IT project" rarely go together very well, but the introduction of UC has, to varying degrees, been described as a "fiasco" and a "disaster" which could cost taxpayers up to £3billion in the end.

Next, there's the cruel. Disability assessments were introduced by the previous Labour government, who used ATOS to judge whether claimants of disability benefits were fit to work, leading to personal suffering and tests heavily skewed against the claimants.

Last but not least there's the "bedroom tax", where housing benefit is cut for households with spare bedrooms and arguably the most unpopular move since the Poll Tax and has, again, hit the disabled particularly hard. It's not as if they have the option to move anywhere else?

Broadcasting & Culture

• ++ Legalising same-sex marriage
• ++ Successful London 2012 Olympics
• / The Leveson Inquiry
• - Local TV
• - Mish-mash of proposals over the future funding of the BBC and S4C.

Legalising same-sex marriage is probably going to be the major social policy reform this government will be remembered for. It's not really that significant in the grand scheme of things, but it's something even if the UK was playing catch up.

Likewise, there's no question that the 2012 Olympics were a resounding success. Whether it'll leave a lasting legacy is a different matter. Signs are that the legacy has been noticeable but underwhelming, possibly even going backwards in some minority sports.

Phone hacking was, until the Westminster paedophile ring, the major scandal of this term, leading to some unthinkable outcomes like the closure of the News of the World and the humbling of Rupert Murdoch. Whether it will really lead to a culture change in Fleet Street is open to debate as newspapers are reluctant to sign up to the parliament-backed royal charter. Stalemate on press regulation?

Although I like the idea of local TV, the product hasn't been that impressive – though you could never expect high standards on slim resources; so it's not the fault of the local TV stations themselves. It would've been better to have had a single pan-UK station (or even separate stations for the home nations) with regional opt-outs....basically what ITV used to be. With the BBC Charter up for renewal in the next Parliament, it's hard to see where things are going on the future of the licence fee and the knock-on impact that would now have on S4C.

Environment, Energy & Utilities

"Greenest Ever Government"?
(Pic : Daily Post)

• + Establishment of the Green Investment Bank
• - Giving the go ahead to a new generation of nuclear power stations.
• - Giving the go ahead to widespread "fracking".
• - - Selling the Post Office for significantly less than it's worth.
• - - Failing spectacularly to be the "greenest ever government".

It was promising at the start, but the "green crap" was ditched sharpish by the Coalition, offset somewhat by recent announcements on tidal lagoons – which are a much better long-term bet in renewables stakes than onshore wind and solar. The Green Investment Bank is a good idea that to date hasn't really delivered much in the way of results but that could change in the next few years if it gets borrowing powers.

High energy prices have dominated headlines on-off throughout this parliamentary term; until recent price falls the were likely to be a major election issue. Is nuclear energy the best way to secure long-term supplies? Objectively, yes; but it's a panicked and extremely expensive measure that will leave a legacy that could well outlast humanity itself (Turning Wales a radioactive shde of green). Alternative should've been more actively considered.

Although carbon emissions have fallen consistently over the last five years, it's unlikely to have be down to government policy exclusively. Carbon emission reduction targets have only been maintained after concessions were given on allowing more fracking, which seems counter-productive. Fracking, of course, affects Wales directly.

Constitutional Reform

• + Silk Commission offering limited fiscal devolution and extra powers to Wales.
• / Fixed-term Parliaments.
• - Failure to reform the House of Lords.
• - Failure to change the voting system for Westminster elections.
• - - Breaking "the vow" to Scotland following the no vote in September 2014.

The Silk Commission hasn't exactly produced groundbreaking proposals, but it was certainly a significant step in the right direction until the Smith Commission came along – which you can argue in itself hasn't lived up to the infamous Daily Record "vow", and it looks like Labour in Scotland are going to be punished for that.

The resounding defeat of the alternative vote referendum – a crap campaign by both sides – was a missed opportunity in more ways than one. Despite promises when the Tories and Lib Dems went into government, the pace of constitutional reform has been glacial when it comes to Westminster itself. This was their chance. They blew it.

As for fixed-term parliaments, despite offering a bit more certainty and stability, it's hardly earth-shattering stuff by itself. I don't understand why a five-year electoral cycle is better than four-years, or why the rules for motions of no confidence and early elections have to be so complicated.

Immigration & Nationality

• / Problems with suspected terrorists and extremists.
• - New immigration rules having a negative effect on Welsh NHS recruitment.
• - 2014 passport backlog
• - Immigration "vans" in London
• - - Failing to keep pledges to reduce/limit immigration.

Extremism and terrorism are always going to be tough for any government to deal with, and a difficult balancing act between protecting personal liberties and national security. I'd say that compared to the previous government the Coalition have got the balance right. Although not necessarily her fault directly, Theresa May's handling of Abu Qatada's deportation and Islamist entryism into Birmingham schools could be considered bungling.

Tightened immigration rules have put off university and further education students from moving to the UK, but Wales has often relied on skilled immigrants as NHS staff – in particular doctors from the Indian subcontinent. These rules have been carried over from the previous government. We have enough problems training and retaining home-grown doctors, but this avenue has been closed off and we're seeing the results in hospitals up and down Wales.

Cuts to the passport service inevitably led to serious delays in passport processing in 2014, despite Theresa May apparently being warned of potential problems in 2013. Also, the immigration "go home" vans patrolling east London were reminiscent of far-right Japanese "noise vans" (video above). Luckily they were scrapped.

Regardless of your opinion on immigration itself, the Coalition were committed to net immigration falling to "tens of thousands, not hundreds of thousands". Although immigration has fallen overall - in particular amongst non-EU citizens - it remains in the hundreds of thousands per year.

So, based on this (admittedly narrow) selection of policies :

• Positives (+) : 17
• Neutral (/)  : 8
• Negatives (-)  : 37