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Tuesday, 5 April 2011

The England Question

Paul Murphy MP (Lab, Torfaen) writes on Wales Home about the "English problem". That being, they lack some form of devolution settlement. Vast swathes of "UK" policy are now exclusively English, especially since the last strings tying Wales to the apron, with regard devolved matters, were cut in March.

"English votes for English matters" doesn't satisfy Paul. I think he is right in that respect. It's the quickest and cheapest way to deal with it, but there are all sorts of scenarios that would make it a complete dogs dinner.

For example, Labour could be in government at UK level relying wholly on Labour MPs from Scotland and Wales, but England could be overwhelmingly Conservative. Who would have the right to deal with bread and butter English-only matters like health and education? Who would run UK departments in this scenario? Would there be two executives in the Commons, a Prime Minister of the UK from Labour and a First Minister for England from the Conservatives swapping seats depending on what day it is?

There is a proposal for so-called "double majority" voting, where laws have to be passed by both the Commons at large and a majority of English MP's. This might go some way to solving the problem, but I doubt it would be satisfactory.

Then there's "EnglandandWales". Things like criminal justice, water and energy for example. Would there again be another Prime Minister for England and Wales matters? Based on how many seats the respective parties have on an Anglo-Welsh basis? Or would it be treated as an England-only matter, without the devolution of criminal justice etc. to Wales? I doubt any Conservative "First Minister" in England would want to give up one of the policy areas they are most associated with. The solution here is simply to devolve such matters to Wales. But would that require another referendum?

A devolved English Parliament? "Break-up of the Union".....you can here the cries now.

The problem is that England IS the Union. England is an elephant, Scotland is a Scottish terrier, Wales is a duck and Northern Ireland is a mouse caught in the teeth of a very ill-looking Celtic Tiger. It's a lop-sided Union and one of the reasons I believe it's becoming unworkable in its current unitary form.

Would an all-England Parliament be satisfied with the kinds of powers the devolved administrations currently have? It wouldn't have any sort of international clout. It wouldn't have any major tax-varying powers and it would spend most of it's time micromanaging a budget given to them by the UK Government. A budget that could actually dwarf the UK Government's once devolved and reserved matters are separated. That's another problem.

Where would it be based? How many elected members would it have (it would need to be several hundred surely)? What voting system would it use? All matters for the English people to decide of course, but not without some pain along the way I'd imagine.

The best solution, regarding English devolution in my view, would be devolved regional assemblies for England & Cornwall. Each with a nice manageable population of 5-10million (and Cornwall significantly less). Each of the them would be similar to the Scottish Parliament and the UK can move towards a proper federal system along the lines of Germany. However this raises even more problems.

Firstly regional devolution has been rejected once before, by the North East of England in 2004.

Secondly, England is a proud and historically united nation. Any moves to "regionalise" England would be met with fierce resistance, especially if the EU tin-foil-hatters run wild with it. It's the kind of thing that should be done within sovereign nations, but not to a nation within a nation-state (if that makes any sense). Diluting a national identity in this way is storing problems for the future.

Though you could point to Spain as an example where this has happened successfully. Castile is divided into several autonomous regions.

Last but not least. There's independence for all the constituent nations of the UK. And we all lived happily ever after. Right?

Obviously from a nationalist perspective, I would go with "English votes for English laws" in its rawest form (without double majority). It would be chaos. It would make Westminster look bad, borderline incompetent and could make the UK ungovernable in a Belgian sense.

However the pragmatist in me would point towards an English devolution settlement, preferably regional, as it is most workable (in theory).

Ultimately (and much more importantly) how devolution emerges and evolves in England is a matter for our English friends to decide. And decide alone.

Sunday, 3 April 2011

Welsh Assembly End of Term Awards : Part Two


The "Will Be Missed" Award

Joint Winners: Nerys Evans (Plaid, Mid & West Wales) and David Melding (Con, South Wales Central)

It's going to be a right old ding dong in Carmarthen West & South Pembs. come May, Nerys Evans, one of Plaid's "rising stars" is the most likely (in my opinion) to get knocked out of the three-way race. It won't be the end of her involvement in politics, being so young, but it will be a blow for Plaid should it happen.

David Melding isn't the top of the Conservative list seat for South Wales Central. If the Tories do particularly badly there and other parties, especially Labour, get a bigger share of the regional vote than they otherwise would, David will likely be squeezed out. The Assembly could lose one of, if not the best AMs.

Runners up:

Jane Davidson (Lab, Pontypridd)

One of the real performers of Welsh Labour down the years. I do believe that losing Jane will be a longer-term blow to Welsh Labour than they might expect. They're losing a very effective, likable and competent person who could very easily have been a Welsh Labour leader in the future.


Rhodri Morgan (Lab, Cardiff West)

Alun Michael was the first First Minister, Rhodri will be remembered as the first. His impact on Welsh politics shouldn't be underestimated, but it's unquestionable that he regained the Assembly some dignity that was denied it by the initial devolution settlement. I hope he enjoys his retirement.

Special Mention:

Brynle Williams
(Con, North Wales)


Long-serving regional member for North Wales, Brynle Williams, sadly died this week at the (young) age of 62. There was no doubting his commitment to North Wales in the Assembly and his passion for farming, even if he was more famous to the public (at large) as a face of the 2000 fuel protests. Other people will be able to deliver better tributes than I could for Brynle, this Wales Home article by Daran Hill for instance. The universally positive words from his Assembly colleagues speaks for itself.


Welcome Aboard Award for ones to watch in 2011-2016

Winner
: Vaughan Gething (Lab)

Should he win in Cardiff South and Penarth, Vaughan will become the first black AM. He's something of a rising star in Welsh Labour, having worked in trade union law and in other public and voluntary bodies, even at a fairly young age. This isn't a remarkable background for a Labour AM, but for me he'll be one to watch out for.

Runners Up: Mark Drakeford (Lab)

Almost certain to succeed Rhodri Morgan in Cardiff West. Obviously I would lean towards Neil McEvoy in this contest but there's no harm in having a strongly progressive voice, especially someone with the academic experience, in the Assembly.

Ron Davies (Plaid)

He faces a fight in Caerphilly and it's going to be close. However, should he win, I don't think I'll be the only one pleased to see Ron back in mainstream politics. The result in Caerphilly will give a good indication of how Plaid will do overall in the election. A bad night for Ron could mean a bad night for Plaid.

Wish You Were Here Award

Winner: Prof. Dylan Jones-Evans (Con)

The authority on the economy in Wales. He has the respect of people from across the political spectrum, including myself, and although I don't agree with many of the things he says, his steadfast commitment to improving the Welsh economy is contagious. We need (and deserve) people of the calibre of Prof. Jones-Evans in the Assembly.

Runner Up: Adam Price (Plaid)

It's not surprising that he isn't standing in May, being rather busy in the US and all. He's our Alex Salmond, but better. Like Prof. Jones-Evans I don't agree with everything he says, but he has the charisma and vision to take Wales forward. I'm convinced he'll stand for the Assembly in future and convinced that one day he can lead it too. Towards independence? Who knows. He's one of a few people, in my opinion, who would be able to make Plaid palatable to the Labour core vote in south Wales.


The Joe Calzaghe Award for maintaining tactful relations with Westminster

Winner: Carwyn Jones (Lab, Bridgend)

The newly elected UK Prime Minister decides to pop down to Cardiff Bay for a visit, something about a respect agenda. Supposedly the meeting between First and Prime Minister's was "frosty" to say the least. Carwyn is a rather large chap, and I'm sure he would've have a (c/o Paul Flynn) "bone crusher" special handshake for Dave.

Runners up: Dafydd Elis-Thomas (Plaid, Dwyfor Meirionydd)

Win the referendum then the next day decide that the Welsh Secretary post needs to go. The vitriolic response by Peter Hain made it all worth it. Successful troll is successful.

Andrew Davies (Lab, Swansea West)

Dr Bunsen vs Beaker. His questioning of Danny Alexander was "robust" shall we say.


The John Redwood Award for services to Welsh Nationalism

Winner: The Online Ultra-Unionist Community

Read "Betsan's Blog" or the Western Mail forums/article comments and you will read things about Wales and the Welsh that would've made Edward I blush. Reasoned criticism of the Assembly and WAG gets tangled up with other paranoid rants and conspiracy theories, usually (but not exclusively) involving the Welsh language.

It's come to the point where I believe bringing up Welsh in unrelated topics is a new "Godwin's Law" and a sign that someone has lost the debate.

Runners Up: Cheryl Gillan (Con, Chesham and Amersham)

She's a nice person, but Wales needs a better cabinet minister or we may as well not have one at all. I'm sure Wales would welcome a high speed rail link to London but Cheryl doesn't appear to like those new fangled things for her own constituency. How can an MP for one of the most wealthy and least deprived parts of the UK accurately represent people from some of the poorest at the UK top table?

Paul Matthews (True Wales)

Reverse psychology is great.

Mr/Mrs/Ms Cellophane 2007-2011

To be fair, there could've been quite a few names up for this one...............


Winner: Irene James (Lab, Islwyn)

I'm sorry.....you are?

"A member of the Health, Wellbeing and Local Government Committee; the Public Accounts Committee and the Sustainability Committee".

Oh. Alright then.

Runners up: Mohammad Ashgar (Con, South Wales East)

Shadow Heritage & Culture Minister:

"We want to bring the (Champions League) final here. You heard my word - 'final'. Which is one match, one or two matches. They can play a couple of matches around Wales - there are good grounds around . They could go to neighbouring cities also, no harm in that, but the final should be in Cardiff."

Yellow card..........yellow card..........red card.

John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East) and Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham)

As a scientist, I was really looking forward to a "National Science Academy" as stipulated in the One Wales agreement. What we got was a half-arsed promotion of STEM subjects in schools. Where's the "Academy" John? Lesley?

Saturday, 2 April 2011

Welsh Assembly End of Term Awards : Part One

The Diamond in the Rough Award for All-Round Ministerial Competence

Winner: Jocelyn Davies (Plaid, South Wales East)

It's very rarely a government minister can stand up and say. "I delivered everything I promised." Housing isn't one of the top portfolios all in all, but when the job is done right, it makes a difference to everyday lives. Despite attempts by Westminster to stifle moves towards ending right-to-buy, the Housing LCO was passed. There is definite groundwork for significant improvements in housing in Wales for the future thanks to Jocelyn's efforts.

Runners up: Jane Davidson (Lab, Pontypridd)

Wales is a far more sustainable place now than it was 10 years ago. Recycling rates have improved dramatically, building codes have sustainability and the environment at their heart and the youth of Wales have a much greater understanding of their role in maintaining their environment. Considering the limited scope of Assembly powers regarding energy, I doubt Jane managed to do everything she would've wanted to. But it's not a bad record all in all.

Elin Jones (Plaid, Ceredigion)

Is it any surprise that the three listed here are all women? Rural affairs isn't the most glamorous job in government, but Elin has taken to it in her stride. I would've chosen her as winner if it wasn't for the badger cull and Glastir "issues". Elin is someone who clearly understands her brief in depth, listens to the agricultural community and is more than capable of delivering as well.

The Samuel L. Jackson Award for "gettin' shit done"

Winner : Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan)

A surprise choice? Knowing that there were swingeing cuts coming down the line would've made the job of Finance Minister something of a poisoned chalice. Jane has managed to pass a budget that involved difficult decisions but was fair, balanced and spread the cuts over a wider area than that in England. No easy task and deserves more credit than was given.

Runners up: Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda)

Despite the disappointing PISA results, Leighton has shown he isn't someone who rests on his laurels. Some big changes Welsh education are on the way. He's tackled several issues head on, including the thorny issue of Higher Education funding and has shown he isn't afraid to use muscle when it's needed, whether that's dealing with the teaching unions or with coalition partners.

Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside)

Anglesey Council has had ongoing problems for decades. Carl has finally managed to get a grip on the situation that threatened to get out of control. It's a pretty big step that Cardiff Bay should (de-facto) take over the running of a council, considering the disproportionate power and influence local authorities wield in Wales. Carl has shown he isn't afraid to take big decisions when all other avenues have been exhausted.

The Award for Effective Backbenchery

Winner
: Alun Davies (Lab, Mid & West Wales)

Loud, bordering on obnoxious (by AM standards), not afraid to push for answers. The beast of Blaenau Gwent?

Runners up:

Johnathan Morgan (Con, Cardiff North)

An AM with a deep-seated and genuine concern about Welsh health services, especially mental heath, resulting in an LCO.

Dai Lloyd (Plaid, South Wales West)

Made good use of the short debates, always sharp and asks the right questions.

The Comfy Chair Award for Assembly Inquisition

Winner: The Welsh Liberal Democrats

You can guarantee the best researched and most probing questions in the Siambr will come from the Welsh Lib Dems. They are annoying. They are like the smug know-it-all swot at the front of the class that demolishes your arguments without breaking a sweat. This is a good thing and what we should expect and want from the opposition.

Best Party Leader

Winner: Kirsty Williams (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor)

She's grown in stature over this Assembly term. She isn't afraid to ask difficult questions and has made One Wales ministers sweat on more than one occasion. She has the mannerisms of a shrill sixth-former sometimes, and it grates, but there's no denying she's an effective leader of an effective party of opposition in the Assembly. She doesn't deserve to be punished in May for her UK colleagues actions.

Runner Up
: Ieuan Wyn Jones (Plaid, Ynys Mon)


Perhaps he's not the best minister. Perhaps he's too laid back, too glib. What you cannot argue with is that he's a good "manager" and a good leader. He's led Plaid to power at national level for the first time and by and large they've delivered. He's also been an excellent transport minister, but his record as economy minister (despite the difficult nature of the brief) leaves a lot to be desired, even if it isn't as bad under detailed scrutiny as his detractors would say.

Best Parliamentarian

Winner: David Melding (Con, South Wales Central)

The Welsh Conservatives "thinker". David is someone I can respect. He has a pragmatic (perhaps even progressive) attitude towards devolution, a sharp mind, and is one of the first people you can point to as the example of an all round "good AM" when the quality of AMs is criticised.

Runners up: Gareth Jones (Plaid, Aberconwy)

He's understated, but Gareth Jones is one of the best committee chairs in the Assembly. There's no doubting his commitment to the Assembly as an institution and in making the most of scrutiny.

Dafydd Elis-Thomas (Plaid, Dwyfor Meirionnydd)

Mr Assembly himself. A constant steady hand at the heart of Assembly procedure. Perhaps the role of Llywydd

Most Effective Campaigner

Winner: Ann Jones (Lab, Vale of Clwyd)

It's very rare that a campaign ends with a new law. Ann managed to do it by ensuring new homes in Wales will have fire sprinkler systems fitted, saving many lives in future. That's what I call an "effective campaigner".

Runners up:

Bethan Jenkins (Plaid, South Wales West) – Swansea Visteon pensions justice.

Jeff Cuthbert (Lab, Caerphilly) – Fought tenaciously on the subject of disabled access to railway stations.

Peter Black (Lib Dem, South Wales West) – A bit of a woolly subject, but at least he opposed the badger cull using evidence not emotion.

...................PART TWO TOMORROW
.....................

Thursday, 31 March 2011

Senedd Watch - March 2011

Here's the first of what will become a monthly round up of the major goings on in the Welsh Assembly.


  • The Welsh electorate delivered a decisive "yes" vote in the March 3rd referendum on primary law making powers, by 63.5% to 36.5%. Turnout was poor, but respectable at just 35.2%. Monmouthshire was the only local authority to return a "no", and even then by less than 400 votes.
  • As a result of the yes vote, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg raised the possiblity of future tax- varying powers for Wales, but has ruled out Barnett formula reforms due to the economic climate.
  • The LCO for organ donation has been withdrawn. Since the yes vote, there was no longer any need for it. Health Minister Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower) believes legislation should be passed in the next Assembly term.
  • Assembly Goverment statistics released show that almost all non-urgent cancer patients in Wales started treatment within one month of diagnosis, and 93% of urgent cancer patients started treatment (after referral to hospital) within 2 months.
  • Rural Affairs minister Elin Jones (Plaid, Ceredigion) relaid the controversial Bovine TB control order ("badger cull") before the Assembly, extending it's scope to include camelids, deer and goats. The order was subsequently passed by the Assembly.
  • The Independent Renumeration Board comfirmed that AM's pay will be frozen for four years.
  • First Minister Carwyn Jones (Lab, Bridgend) sent a letter of condolence to the Japanese ambassador after the Sendai earthquake.
  • Local Government Minister Carl Sargeant (Lab, Delyn) announces that Anglesey County Borough Council is to be run by commissioners as a result of ongoing problems in the authority.
  • The National Assembly election in 2015 has been postponed one year to 2016 due to a clash with the UK General Election as a result of a 5-year fixed-term parliament.
  • An Assembly Communities and Culture Committee report suggests that the Welsh Government should set up a fund to bring empty local properties back into use.
  • Home care and non-residential social services in Wales will now have a maximum charge of £50 per week from April following the passing of the Social Care Charges measure by the Assembly and Deputy Minister for Social Services Gwenda Thomas (Lab, Neath).
  • NHS statistics have shown that dental care in Wales has improved since the 1970's. The Adult Dental Health Survey shows the proportion of adults with no natural teeth has fallen from 37% in 1978 to 10% in 2009. 22% of those surveyed said their choice of treatment was influenced by costs. 91% of adults were able to make and attend a dental appointment.
  • Ann Jones AM (Lab, Vale of Clwyd) received the Bernadette Hartley Memorial Award (for promoting fire safety through sprinklers) at the House of Lords for her Member-introduced Domestic Fire Safety Measure (awaiting Royal Assent) which will require new homes in Wales to be fitted with automatic sprinkler systems.
  • Projects announced in March include:
    1. The first phase of a duel-carriageway upgrade to the east of Newport
    2. A new north-south train service via Wrexham
    3. Extra trains between Carmarthen and Fishguard
    4. The devolution of rail management to Wales by Network Rail
    5. A relaunch and upgrade of the TrawsCambria long-distance bus service
    6. The A40 Llanddewi Velfrey-Penblewin bypass
    7. New schools and colleges in Dinefwr (Carmarthenshire), Merthyr Tydfil and Ynysawdre (Bridgend County)
    8. A technology graduate entrapreneurship scheme
    9. A new campus for Swansea University at Crymlyn Burrows and the launch of a new business district in Cardiff city centre.

    Tuesday, 29 March 2011

    Did "One Wales" deliver?

    The 3rd Assembly is to be officially dissolved on March 31st and the election campaign will get into full swing.

    In June 2007, Labour and Plaid Cymru signed the "One Wales" agreement and went into coalition together in the Assembly. The document "One Wales - A progressive agenda for the government of Wales" contained a list specific commitments that the new government pledged to deliver in the Assembly term.

    The document was divided into 10 parts. Let's see how they did.

    Methodology

    I'm counting each bulletpointed note in the original One Wales document as a single pledge. I'm not counting anything that I consider to be preamble, legalese or generally refering to proceedures or guidelines. In total this makes 221 pledges.

    I've divided each pledge into three categories based on outcome:
    • Delivered – A pledge with which it's results can be tracked down easily and readily and has been delivered in its entirity during the Assembly term.
    • Half-delivered – Pledges where there is a strong commitment to carry them through beyond the current term, or pledges which have fallen short of their stated aim, but not through any noticeable mismanagement by the government.
    • Undelivered – Pledges that have missed their stated aim, target or have not been delivered satisfactorily in the Assembly term for whatever reason.
    Summary of One Wales deliveries...or lack there of (Click to enlarge)



    1. A Progressive Agenda For Wales

    Preamble. Waffle waffle progressive agenda, society, radical, deliverable etc.

    2. A Strong and Confident Nation

    The referendum on primary law making powers was delivered (and more importantly won). The Holtham Commission was set up to investigate the funding situation for Wales and submitted a report. There are ongoing reviews of governance and delivery in the Welsh public sector and a Strategic Capital Investment Board was set up in 2010. A good start so far.

    3. A Healthy Future

    Health and Social Services is the biggest spending category in devolved Wales and is almost always at the forefront of political debate because of our aging population and a relatively higher proportion of people with limiting illnesses, both a legacy of industry and economic depression. On the surface of it, not bad at all. One delivery they can really point to as a success is the improvements to public health, exceeding the £190million by £70million and introducing new screening schemes like that for bowel cancer.

    However some crucial pledges, like single-site solutions (neurosurgery) and not-for-profit nursing homes have failed to materialise to any great extent. The most important factor in health is delivery on the ground, and the biggest non-delivery is failing to meet the 26 week waiting time target for all referrals, though they are very close to doing it at about 93-96%.

    4. A Prosperous Society

    Like health, the one big stand-out pledge, 80% employment, wasn't delivered. Even during the peak of the boom employment levels in Wales were, at best, 74-75%. Although regeneration investment is ongoing in the Head of the Valleys and Mon a Menai, the lack of any real return means I'm counting it as half-delivered. Similarly with a pledge to make it easier for small firms to win government contracts. Is it easier? I'm not sure.

    However, again it looks good for One Wales. Many pledges were delivered, like the Single Investment Fund, the Economic Renewal Plan, Assembly relocation, business rate relief (though perhaps not far enough), public procurement that encourages training the unemployed (i.e Church Village Bypass), support for farmers markets and back-to-work schemes backed by the DWP and with Objective One funding.

    5. Living Communities

    Practically every single housing pledge in the One Wales document has been delivered. These include the housing LCO and increased spending on social housing. The exception is a pledge relating to making it easier for charities to dispose land for affordable housing. That particular one was within Westminster's remit (charity law) and the WAG were merely lobbying. It's hard to tell if anything actually came out of it.

    When it comes to transport, again practically all pledges were met. There were improvements to north-south travel, which is now better that at any point in Welsh history (which isn't saying much). The only exceptions I'm counting as half-delivered are reducing rail travel times between north-south and improving station safety because arguably these measures haven't been that successful. Similarly improvements to Traws-Cambria have only just gone through the consultation process when 2011 was set as a deadline. At least there's a commitment there.

    6. Learning for life

    WAG education policy has been overshadowed by the poor PISA test results. However, once again, the bulk of the One Wales pledges have been delivered including a national youth work fund, a broader Welsh baccalaureate, maintaining tution fees, improved rights for SEN pupils, increased capital expenditure on school buildings and some minor goals relating to school sports. Also included are after-school pilots, called the "Buzz club" which is aimed towards developing talents. There are also more WAG-funded apprenticeships with almost 23,000 people on them in 2010.

    However the Coleg Ffederal is currently going through the motions and a though the commitment is there, it hasn't moved from the planning stage. Class sizes haven't reduced. The "National Science Academy" isn't that at all and just a promotion of STEM subjects in schools, which is a big let down and I'm classing it as undelivered.

    Education is likely to be one of the big topics in the forthcoming election, but One Wales can say they've largely delivered what they promised, even if the big matters, like class sizes and attainment, remain an ongoing problem.

    7. Fair and Just Society

    Although many things have been delivered yet again, this is one of the most disappointing sections in terms of actual policy.

    The target to eliminate and halve child poverty by 2020 and 2010 respectively is looking wildly optimistic. Although it has fallen/stabilised, this was just a wild stab at a policy, not faulting it's ambitions.

    A lot of the pledges in this section were wooly liberal buzz-word type ones. Lots of "inclusion" and "strategy" and "implimentation" but very little hard policy. Some big deliveries were the Children and Families LCO, improvements/reviews to substance abuse policies and those relating to hate crimes. When it comes to hate crime it's actually gone beyond the strategy room and there are now dedicated hate crime services in Wales.

    One important pledge missed was to look into the devolution of criminal justice. It's only now being mentioned post-referendum.

    8. A Sustainable Environment

    The Assembly has a pretty good track record when it comes to the environment and rural affairs (within it's comptency) and it continues through One Wales. Practically all pledges have been delivered including a climate change commission, commitments to reduce carbon emmissions, improvements in farming support, local food production, strategies for energy and rural development and the devolution of building regulations.

    The badger cull, listed in One Wales as bovine TB eradication, I'm counting as half delivered. The will is clearly there, but various legal obstacles have tied the WAG's hands. The only pledge undelivered was to place "maximum restrictions on GM crops". Instead the WAG has adopted a cautious acceptance stance rather than "maximum restrictions".

    9. Rich and Diverse Culture

    A multitude of commitments relating to culture and heritage have been delivered, including the new Welsh Language LCO and Measure, pledges relating to free sport schemes, establishing new art galleries, public ownership of green spaces (Playing Fields measure) and increased investment in libraries.

    A few of the pledges are obtuse, or hard to tell if they actually have been delivered. For example did One Wales really "support Welsh artist participation on the World stage"? Have they "raised Wales's international profile"? Does Golwg360 count as "expanded funding and support for Welsh language media"?

    Some missed pledges include the failed attempt at a "dot.cym" domain, the intriguing "enshrining artistic freedom in Welsh law", and those relating to maximising Wales's global presence. It just hasn't happened really, has it.

    One important pledge kept is relating to UN goals. The UN Rights of the Child have recently become part of Welsh law for example, the first nation of the UK to do so. I haven't listed Huw Lewis as a minister responsible for this brief but he deserves credit for that.

    10. Government Arrangements

    There's nothing in this section I would count as a specific pledge. It mainly relates to how the coalition would work but by and large any pledges here have been delivered. The coalition has been harmonious on the surface of it and I'm willing to bet it's worked a lot better than Labour and Plaid would've expected. It's been stable. There have been no scandals of any real note aside from the usual complains about specifics relating to public service delivery that have been going on for time immemorial.

    Conclusion

    It's very rare that a government can point to delivering 80% of what they promised (90%+ if you include half-delivered pledges).

    However what this tells me is that the One Wales Agreement lacked ambition and looked for easily deliverable, "soft" targets. With the 4th Assembly having new law making powers, it's time for our politicians to step their game up.

    If there is to be any "One Wales – Part II", then not only will there need to be bolder pledges, there will need to be delivery where it really matters – waiting lists, class sizes, job creation.

    That doesn't take away the achievments of One Wales. They can be pleased, proud even, but they have to push themselves now and aim higher. For Wales's sake.

    Thursday, 24 March 2011

    The Welsh Metro

    A few months ago, the Institute of Welsh Affairs together with Cardiff Business Partnership published a "metro system" proposal for south Wales. The cost of the scheme was estimated to be £2.5billion. The scheme involved electrified heavy-rail, bus rapid transit and trams not only connecting the valleys to Cardiff, but the valleys to each other.


    It's a perfectly logical proposition. South Wales is blessed with an extensive heavy rail network for it's population density. The rail network around Cardiff as it is already puts some other UK cities to shame, like Bristol.


    Why should the metro idea be exclusively for Cardiff though?


    In this post I'm outlining 3 separate schemes based on the IWA/CBP report and my own ideas; a Capital-Region metro based around Cardiff, Newport and the south Wales valleys, a Swansea Bay area metro and a Deeside/Wirral metro (largely utilising existing rail services).


    1. Capital Connect

    Capital Connect (Click to enlarge)
    (i) Rail Services


    At the core is a half-hourly "South Wales Commuter" service between Cheltenham Spa and Swansea, calling at all stations along the route. To enable this, the Maesteg service will now run between Bridgend and Maesteg only, using the bay platform to the north of Bridgend station.


    Lines reopened include Aberdare-Hirwaun, Ystrad Mynach-Bedlinog and Llanhilleth-Abertillery. Every line should be double-track where possible or practical. Each line should also aim to have, a minimum half-hourly service, perhaps eventually every 20 minutes with signalling improvements.


    The metro would have 6 distinct "lines".


    • South Wales Commuter – Explained above.
    • Maesteg Line – Bridgend to Maesteg shuttle service.
    • Glamorgan Line – Services from Hirwaun, Treherbert and Merthyr to Barry Island, Bridgend (via Barry) and Penarth.
    • City Line – Clockwise and anti-clockwise services around Cardiff, with a rationalisation Coryton branch stations and a new connection to Radyr via Forest Farm.
    • Gwent Line – Services from Ebbw Vale and Abertillery to Cardiff Central and Abergavenny (via Newport).
    • Northern Line – Services from Rhymney and Bedlinog to Cardiff Bay.




    (ii) Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)


    The BRT services wouldn't be "rapid transit" in the strictest sense of the word, more a limited stop bus service, using high-spec buses and stopping at higher quality, "metro branded" stops located at various places in the network.


    Seamless transfer should be encouraged with many BRT services calling at metro rail stations. The BRT services would be vital in connecting communities and facilities (such as hospitals) too far from the existing rail network or no longer able to be reconnected, for example Maerdy and Tredegar.


    In the Capital Connect area there are 2 types of BRT service. Valley Connect services connect valley communities to one another. City Connect connects the valleys to the city region (Cardiff and Newport) and the cities to each other.


    Sections of segregated busway should be constructed where feasible. For example between Fairwater and Beddau (via Creigau). Bus priority measures should be enhanced along BRT routes. The buses and stops themselves should be branded in the same distinct metro brand as the rail services, to distinguish BRT services from local and municipal services.


    Bus services should be more frequent than rail during peak times (every 5 minutes on busy routes) and at least half-hourly at all other times.






    2. Swansea Connect


    (i) Rail Services

    Swansea Connect (Click to enlarge)
    Swansea is disadvantaged by having it's main railway station outside of the city centre proper. This makes planning a metro service around it quite difficult. However there are freight-only railways in and around Swansea that can be utilised for passenger services. Naturally all of the lines involved would be electrified.


    A secondary transport interchange to the east of the city on Fabian Way will be a focal point for both bus rapid transit and new rail services along the Swansea District Line and the Vale of Neath branches. These rail services should use lightweight tram-trains and should aim to run an hourly service at a minimum, with passing loops installed where appropriate.


    Swansea, Port Talbot, Bridgend and Neath will still be served by existing mainline services as well as the South Wales Commuter service mentioned above.


    To the west of Swansea, a new service will operate from Carmarthen to Swansea and the Amman Valley. Stations will be reopened along this route, for example at Lougher, Waunarlwydd and Cockett. Due to limited turnback facilities at Llanelli, only District Line services will turn back towards Swansea, creating a "horseshoe" shaped service for Swansea's outer suburbs.


    The Swansea Metro area will have 5 lines:


    • South Wales Commuter – Explained earlier.
    • Maesteg Line – Explained earlier.
    • District Line – From new Fabian way hub, around the north of Swansea to Llanelli, then on to Swansea station itself.
    • Vale of Neath Line – From Fabian way to Blaengwrach (possibly extended to Aberdare in the future) and Seven Sisters (possibly extended to Ystradgynlais and Pontardawe in the future).
    • Carmarthenshire Line – From Carmarthen to Swansea and Gwaun Cae Gurwen (via Ammanford).


    (ii) Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)


    Part of the BRT system for Swansea already exists between Morriston and Singleton Hospitals. 4 more BRT "lines" would be developed, including a significant busway between eastern Swansea and Port Talbot across the Neath estuary. Another busway could be developed to the north west of Swansea from Gorseinon to Pontardulais along a disused railway.


    The BRT should also be extended beyond Singleton Hospital to Mumbles Pier.


    Like the Capital area BRT, bus services would be more frequent than those of rail during peak times.


    3. Deeside Connect

    Deeside Connect (Click to enlarge)
    (i) Rail Services


    The Deeside Connect metro focusses on the Wrexham, Deeside, Shropshire, Chester and Wirral areas. It largely utilises existing rail lines, with new stations constructed at appropriate places (such as Cefn Mawr). All lines will be electrified, though the conflict between third-rail electrification on the Merseyrail network with cheaper overhead electrification would need to be resolved.


    A major heavy-rail project would be the reopening of a line between Gobowen and Welshpool, enabling a metro service to Oswestry, and longer-distance services between Wrexham (or Chester) and Aberystwyth (or Pwllheli) via the Cambrian Coast line. A line between Pen-y-fordd and Mold will also be reopened for metro services.


    The Deeside Connect system would have 4 lines:


    • Borderlands Line – As current, with additional stops and electrification. Services extended to Liverpool.
    • Hotspur Line – Between Shrewsbury and Chester (via Wrexham), with additional stops.
    • Glyndwr Line – Between reopened Oswestry branch and reopened Mold branch.
    • Wirral Line – The existing Merseyrail line between Chester and Liverpool. Could possibly become an extension of the Hotspur Line to simplify things.


    4. Smartcard Travel


    Cardiff Bus recently launched an "Iff Card" to enable ticket less/pre-pay travel on it's buses. Although it's a welcome development it still isn't on the same scale as Greater London's Oyster Card or Hong Kong's Octopus Card.


    A new nation-wide smart card should be launched, with recharging points at every BRT stop and rail station for commuters. The card could be expanded beyond metro services to also be used on local bus services, national rail services and perhaps even vending machines at stations or some stores.

    "Exact change" should be a phrase consigned to the past.



    5. Improving user experience


    Many train stations consist of nothing more than a glorified bus shelter. This doesn't send out the right message about using public transport in Wales.


    Stations on the rail network that handle more than 100,000 passengers per year should have some form of indoor waiting area perhaps with a retail outlet or vending machines. Stations that handle more than 200,000 passengers a year should be fully staffed and have accessible toilet facilities. Every station should be DDA compliant within 20 years of the metro being up and running.


    To prevent fare evasion every metro rail station (except those with very low passenger usage) should have ticket sale facilities (probably via a machine) ticket barriers and CCTV installed. Cathays station in Cardiff for example is a "bus shelter" rail station yet has ticket barriers on both platforms.


    Car parking provision should be expanded at rail stations on the outskirts of major urban areas, and those easily accessible (less than 5 minutes) from major arterial routes, such as the M4 or A470.


    Bus stops on BRT routes should be of the highest standard with real-time GPS service information and ticket sale/smart card recharge facilities. Some of the busier stops could have refreshment vending machines or even their own car parks.


    6. Improved rolling stock and buses


    London Underground "S-Stock" interior
    The trains currently being used by Arriva Trains Wales are a disgrace, bordering on an embarrassment. With electrification there is an opportunity for new "off the shelf" rolling stock. New trains should maximise space, be clean, bright and enable all users, including those with disabilities to use them effectively.


    The new London Underground "S-Stock" should be the archetype for any new metro trains, retrofitted for use with overhead power lines and fitted with toilet facilities.


    For the South Wales Commuter service, specific, high passenger density rolling stock should be used with an on board buffet/trolley service. For example a retrofitted Class 333, currently used on the Heathrow Express service.


    Buses for the BRT services should be modern, preferably utilising green technology such as hydrogen fuel cells. They should be low-floor, with toilet facilities considered for some longer-distance BRT services. "Bendy buses", such as the current FTR Swansea Metro ones, should only be considered for low lying, shorter intra-city services such as those in and around Cardiff and Swansea.


    Friday, 4 March 2011

    Not just a yes vote, it's also a confident stamp of nationhood

    607 years in the making

    Harking back to my pre-referendum predictions, I think this qualifies as "pleasantly surprised".

    Wales finally has a "proper" national parliament for the first time in more than 600 years, you could perhaps argue for the first time ever in its history. The yes vote might have only been a tiny step towards that anyway, but it's that significant symbolically. Of course we should've had this in 1997 or even 2006 but we got there in the end, with the backing of the Welsh people (well, those who could be bothered).

    The turnout, at 35.2% nationally, was pretty much as I expected, if anything it's a bit better. The fact some local authorities had turnouts pushing or above 40% like Ceredigion, Gwynedd and Carmarthenshire on such a technical question is, in my mind, pretty good news.

    The real standout figure was the swing from no to yes compared to the 1997 referendum. You can argue that it doesn't matter as the referenda were on separate issues but I don't think Wales has been so united, electorally or politically, since the no vote in 1979.

    I don't need to do any detailed analysis of the figures. They speak for themselves.

    This is a first positive declaration of a united nation. There's no "umming" and "ahhing" about it anymore. Wales as a separate political entity is here to stay. There can be no going back to pre-1997 now. UKIP and True Wales take note.

    I bet even the most hardened yes campaigners would never have dreamt that places like Denbighshire, Powys, Pembrokeshire, Vale of Glamorgan, Flintshire and Newport would ever deliver a yes vote or even a moderate swing towards it. Monmouthshire voted no, and prevented a "clean sweep" but even going to a recount there is dramatic enough. I've never been more delighted to be proven wrong in this case.

    What went right for the Yes campaign?

    1. The electorate, largely, understood the question being asked. Nice and simple. I think both campaigns, and I, underestimated them. I predicted a lower yes vote on the basis that people would vote on the Welsh Government's record, local unrelated factors or thinking that there were tax-raising powers coming, or even independence, leading to a bigger no. This didn't happen.

    2. The Coalition factor. Labour and Plaid got their vote out where it mattered, most of whom wouldn't mind poking the eyes of the Tory bwci-bo in Westminster, even if they in London are probably far more preoccupied with Barnsley than Blaenau Gwent at the moment.

    3. It was a genuinely nationwide campaign. Yes campaigners have been far more prominent in and around Wales with some sort of activity pretty much anywhere. A wide network of street and door-to-door campaigners was a big advantage and it paid off. The fact it had the backing of all four main parties and their resources (presumably Labour and Plaid primarily) meant it was always going to be an uphill struggle for True Wales.

    What went wrong for the No campaign?

    1. They did everything but defend the LCO system. Smoke and mirrors and bringing up unrelated arguments didn't really help them. The only people who were ever going to turn out in big numbers in this referendum were those who actually cared about the Assembly one way or another. They were demolished in debates on the "scrutiny" argument by the simple fact that Westminster doesn't scrutinise Welsh laws. Some of the other arguments put forward were batted away far too easily as well.

    2. It was an unofficial campaign.......and it showed. Did True Wales actually believe that turning down a free nationwide mail shot (and most likely a TV shot) was a good thing? I'm willing to bet if they hadn't done so my predictions might've been closer to the outcome. Dragging an inflatable pig, launching into bizarre, and occasionally insulting, rants in the media and playing "Chicken Little" in the debate was foolish. Rachel Banner, an eloquent and intelligent person, would've done better leading a one-woman no-campaign (or at the very least getting someone like Nigel Farage/UKIP on board much sooner) than surrounding herself with some of the "characters" in the rump of True Wales.

    3. They offered no alternatives. If Wales had voted no, the Assembly would've merely been stuck with the current system. "True Devolution" is a philosophical and ideological commentary rather than a set of proposals that could be implemented, or "improve" the Assembly. For example, True Wales could've argued for making the WASC an official second chamber to the Assembly. They could've even proposed more AMs to provide the extra scrutiny they wanted. They didn't. I think the vast bulk of True Wales merely wanted a return to pre-2006 Act "administrative" devolution, but I'm sure some of them would like to see the Assembly abolished. Thanks to the yes vote I don't see that ever happening now.

    What happens next?

    Well there's an election in two months.............

    I'm sure the policy wonks are busy shortlisting suggestions (conditional on a yes vote) for their manifestos as I type this.

    The Welsh Government (whoever that is in May) can now make fundamental and radical changes in how Wales's devolved public services are structured and delivered, without needing to hold back in fear of MPs reaction. We will have to wait and see what sort of ideas come out of it but I imagine there will be far more emphasis on delivery than on process and micromanaging from now on, which is a good thing for Welsh politics and public interest in Welsh politics.

    Some of the Measures that have come out of the Assembly thus far have been dealing with minutiae but now we will start to see Westminster and Scottish-style Bills and Acts (it feels great to finally be able to say that) covering wider ranging, even cross-department issues.

    As for the no camp. I wouldn't at all be surprised if we see (future Dr) Rachel Banner again, perhaps I'm just being magnanimous in victory, but she would make a good AM and would probably stand a chance of being elected on a regional list seat as an Independent. Could we even be seeing the start of a True Wales Tea Party? They may have lost by a large margin, the pseudo-abolitionist stance rejected, but they will be worth keeping an eye on.

    Make no mistake, the devolution journey certainly doesn't end here. But right now and for the next Assembly term at least, it's time for the AMs to repay the trust the electorate have placed in them.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    I'm delighted that Bridgend county returned a massive "yes" vote of 68%!



    Thursday, 3 March 2011

    Referendum (#1) Predictions

    They're cuddling up to Carwyn now - but will the knives come out before the election campaign?

    We won't know until tomorrow afternoon whether the Welsh electorate have (or haven't) endorsed a move from Part 3 to Part 4 of the Government of Wales Act 2006 (yawn).

    All recent official polls indicate that Wales will, in all likelihood, vote yes and by a comfortable margin. "Porci" the inflatable pig (one of the only stand-out symbols of the campaign to be fair to True Wales) hasn't been taken to the electorate's heart it seems.



    My Referendum Predictions (Click to enlarge)


    1. Turnout will be atrocious, despite the nice (if chilly) weather. I'd predict as low as 30-35% nationally, perhaps even lower in individual constituencies. Postal votes might raise the figure.


    When I went to cast my vote this morning, the officials were marking the numbers on sheets of paper, with around 20-30 spaces per sheet. My number was 2 or 3 down on the sheet marked "2" and it was a pretty thick pad. Bear in mind this was early in the day, but after the rush hour. Referenda are, in some respects, more important than elections. It's the people's chance to influence decisions directly and it's something we take for granted.

    Those who would seek to artificially lower the turnout, for example, by not applying for official campaign status and then go on to claim that low turnout renders the result illegitimate, should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves.

    2. The Local Authorities voting "yes" and "no" will be similar to 1997, but the proportion voting yes in pretty much every LA will be higher compared to 1997.

    The "Costa Geriatrica" in north Wales, the more "anglicised" areas of Flintshire, Monmouthshire, Vale of Glamorgan, Pembrokeshire and Powys will return a no-vote. The south Wales Valleys, Swansea and Y Fro Gymraeg will vote yes.

    I do predict that Wrexham will change from "no" to "yes" more convincingly.

    3. Cardiff and Torfaen will deliver narrow "yes" votes, Newport and Ynys Mon will deliver narrow "no" votes.

    Cardiff voted no in 1997, I'm predicting a yes this time. However local factors, for example the reorganisation of primary schools in Whitchurch, will inflate the numbers voting no (wanting to kick the WAG) and the result could go either way. Cardiff voting no would be embarrassing to the yes campaign even if they ultimately win the day. I don't really need to explain why.

    Similarly I think Torfaen will narrowly vote yes, which will be embarrassing to one prominent member of True Wales in particular. I'm also predicting a Caerphilly "yes", as in 1997.

    Blackwood is still in Caerphilly county and not the Chartists Republic of Gwent, am I right? *chuckle*

    Newport is a punk-spirit city and likes to demonstrate it's individuality in the shadows of Bristol and Cardiff. I'm predicting a (disappointing) no-vote from Wales's third city, based on the ongoing M4 situation(s) and the perceived lack of any benefit or spin-off from prominent Assembly-backed events like the Ryder Cup and delays to things such as a replacement for the Royal Gwent Hospital. It may be a close run thing though.

    Now we come to Anglesey and perhaps my boldest prediction. Again it could go either way, the island is so unpredictable. Perhaps, as a pre-election wake up call to Ieuan Wyn Jones and the WAG over the local government "situation", I'm going to stick my neck out and say Mon Mam Cymru will narrowly vote no, probably only by a few hundred vote margin.

    4. Wales will vote "yes" by a margin of under 10%.


    Based on (the mean of) my predicted LA vote percentages I'm calling it as Yes 53% No 47% on a 32% turnout. That's not a convincing victory and will probably give the no campaigners more cheer than they deserve, but it'll be enough and I think all yes campaigners will take that result.

    Perhaps I'm just being realistic, not getting my hopes up to avoid disappointment and the electorate will deliver a yes vote closer to that of the polls (60%+ yes).

    I cast a yes vote with pride this morning. It's a very technical, very boring referendum for all concerned but win or lose I can say I used my right to vote, and did the most important thing a yes supporter could do.

    I hope this weekend has a pleasantly surprising start, and a pleasantly surprising one in Wales.

    Wednesday, 2 March 2011

    Steering the good ship Cymru to prosperity?


    (Pic : BBC Wales)

    In the 1990's, American businessman and one of the founders of Churchill Insurance, Henry Engelhardt and several others wanted to strike out on their own in the car insurance business. The choice of location came down to Brighton or Wales. The Welsh Development Agency offered a £1million grant, swaying the decision and so began one of modern Wales's great private sector success stories.


    Today, Admiral Group posted record pre-tax profits of £226million for 2010, with turnover breaching £1.5billion. The only other company in Wales that even approaches or exceeds this level (as far as I know) is the supermarket chain Iceland.


    Admiral Insurance employs around 4000 people in Cardiff, Swansea and Newport. Admiral has since expanded abroad, into Spain, Germany, France and the United States. Admiral has also created several sub-brands as part of their group including Elephant (exclusively online insurer), Diamond (women drivers), Gladiator (commercial vehicles), Bell (multiple, including home insurance) and Confused.com (price comparison).


    The impact Admiral has had on the wider Welsh economy shouldn't be underestimated either. For example the successful price comparison company started by a former Admiral Group employee Hayley Parsons, Gocompare.com (turnover £75million in 2010). The tenor may be annoying, but here is an example of another Welsh brand, a spin-off on one of our better known ones, making an impact on rest of the UK. In addition other unrelated price comparison website, moneysupermarket.com (based in Ewloe, Flintshire) recently posted record turnover of £149million, an increase of 9% on last year. It certainly looks on the surface that Wales is developing an important niche industry as people try to look for bargains in straightened financial times.


    There is however a shyness amongst Welsh companies with regard listing on the London Stock Exchange. Admiral Group is currently Wales's only listing on the FTSE-100, floating in 2004, while a handful of other Welsh "brave souls" are listed on the wider FTSE-250 or Alternative Investment Market. Why is this?


    Could it be that because Wales is constantly put down in terms of business success, because we don't really sing the praises of our entrepreneurial success stories enough, because Wales is always having to play catch up to completely impossible targets, that our business brains, or potential business brains, are put off from taking that bold first step.


    It's yet unclear just how the recent European Court of Justice ruling on the discrepancy (or discrimination depending on how you look at it) between male and female insurance premiums will impact the car insurance industry, or Admiral itself (seeing as Diamond is one of their brands). But these kind of rulings tend to push prices up rather than towards an equilibrium.


    It won't stop Admiral though, having unveiled plans for a new HQ in Cardiff, a stones throw from the £675million redevelopment and expansion of the St Davids Centre.


    Did we just get lucky?


    Are there also historic warnings for Admiral?


    Hyder was once Wales's largest private company, in a position similar to Admiral today. It was destroyed by a combination of (UK) government interference (a windfall tax on utilities companies, the rights and wrongs of which are open for debate) and their own decisions (taking on heavy debts to expand, including the purchase of SWALEC).


    Is there a shot across the bow in this also, a warning, to future Economy and Transport ministers in Cardiff that successes and failures don't confine themselves to specific sectors of the economy.


    I'm completely confident that Admiral, a well-run, successful, expanding company with a well-motivated (and most importantly by all accounts a well looked after) workforce will be a permanent fixture of the Welsh economy, one of the main flag bearers for Welsh enterprise, for the long haul.


    Where the next Admiral is going to come from though remains a mystery.


    I will add this though. I think it's a damned shame that an American has put a lot more faith in Cardiff and Wales than some Welshmen (and Welshwomen) do.


    You know who I mean.

    Tuesday, 1 March 2011

    Pleidiol wyf i'm gwlad


    St David's Day 2011 - Cardiff (Guardian Cardiff Flickr)
    I'm not a patriot.


    "Devotion" to a piece of land contained within a line of a map is quaint and anachronistic.


    Odd sentiments for a nationalist, I know.


    But the land doesn't matter. The people do.


    The people of Wales are the constant throughout it's history, from the days of warring principalities, the dark days of penal laws and annexation, revolutions in agriculture, industry and society right through to devolution. Wales is what it is today because of their stories, their hard graft, their contributions and decisions both individual and collective.


    The Britons, Normans, Flemish, English, Scottish, Irish, Italians, Americans, Canadians, Somalis, Yemenis, Nigerians, Ashkenazi, Persian, Turks, Chinese, Japanese, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Nepalis, Indians, Poles, Lithuanians, Slovakians, Czechs, Romani and many others have made Wales their home. Most, if not all of them were represented, regardless of how many generations down the line they were, in the centre of their capital city today.


    Wales is defined and shaped by them and us, one and all. Wales isn't an abstract concept, it isn't a fiefdom of an aristocrat or a single political party nor is it an appendage of a larger nation. It might not be the nicest house in the street, it might "need some renovation", but it's ours nonetheless.


    Whether they are a Fitzgerald or an ap Gwynfor, a Mohammed or a Sidoli, a Jenkins or a Wong, Wales's destiny rests in their hands. We all have different opinions and ideas about which direction Wales will go in the future but the people of Wales have proven throughout history that they have the courage, conviction and confidence to ensure Wales will endure whatever fate; political, philosophical and ideological; throws at us.


    Sometimes that means shining a light on our failures. Confronting our clear weaknesses and overcoming them isn't just part of the rough and tumble of national life but something for all individuals in society as well. We can and must do things better, whether it's improving our own lives, those of our communities or those of our national institutions.


    Only the Welsh people have the power to ensure the best Wales possible is bequeathed to the future. Nobody else is going to do it for us. It can't be given as a gift by MP's, it can't be promised in a manifesto, nor can it be magicked up through constitutional frivolities.


    Wales isn't perfect. We don't have all the answers ourselves. However if we have even an ounce of the drive of our ancestors, whether they died in a pointless border skirmish in the 9th century, bore the scars of industry to provide for themselves and their families or became a millionaire by 25, Wales can get there eventually.


    Wales is part of a global community, a European community and a community of nations sharing an archipelago. We have a uniqueness that is to be celebrated, not idealised, nor reserved exclusively to stadia. A uniqueness that should include, not exclude. A uniqueness that has influenced and been influenced by those other unique communities around us. One day Wales will play a full part in each of those wider communities. Whether it's 10 years from now or 100 years doesn't really matter. But we can only do that when we accept ourselves for what we are and are prepared to make the hard decision to step out of the shadows with confidence, as many other communities in Europe and the rest of the World have done in the past century. Let's hope that when we do, we do so with humility, like the humility of our patron saint, wanting to have a positive influence on the global community and truly cherish and celebrate the gift of determining our own path. In our own time. On our own terms.


    Devotion merely blinds you to the imperfections.


    That's why I'm true to my nation. A nationalist, not a patriot.


    .........pleidiol wyf i'm gwlad..........


    Happy St. David's Day. Dydd Gŵyl Dewi Hapus.