Referendum (#1) Predictions

They're cuddling up to Carwyn now - but will the knives come out before the election campaign?

We won't know until tomorrow afternoon whether the Welsh electorate have (or haven't) endorsed a move from Part 3 to Part 4 of the Government of Wales Act 2006 (yawn).

All recent official polls indicate that Wales will, in all likelihood, vote yes and by a comfortable margin. "Porci" the inflatable pig (one of the only stand-out symbols of the campaign to be fair to True Wales) hasn't been taken to the electorate's heart it seems.

My Referendum Predictions (Click to enlarge)

1. Turnout will be atrocious, despite the nice (if chilly) weather. I'd predict as low as 30-35% nationally, perhaps even lower in individual constituencies. Postal votes might raise the figure.

When I went to cast my vote this morning, the officials were marking the numbers on sheets of paper, with around 20-30 spaces per sheet. My number was 2 or 3 down on the sheet marked "2" and it was a pretty thick pad. Bear in mind this was early in the day, but after the rush hour. Referenda are, in some respects, more important than elections. It's the people's chance to influence decisions directly and it's something we take for granted.

Those who would seek to artificially lower the turnout, for example, by not applying for official campaign status and then go on to claim that low turnout renders the result illegitimate, should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves.

2. The Local Authorities voting "yes" and "no" will be similar to 1997, but the proportion voting yes in pretty much every LA will be higher compared to 1997.

The "Costa Geriatrica" in north Wales, the more "anglicised" areas of Flintshire, Monmouthshire, Vale of Glamorgan, Pembrokeshire and Powys will return a no-vote. The south Wales Valleys, Swansea and Y Fro Gymraeg will vote yes.

I do predict that Wrexham will change from "no" to "yes" more convincingly.

3. Cardiff and Torfaen will deliver narrow "yes" votes, Newport and Ynys Mon will deliver narrow "no" votes.

Cardiff voted no in 1997, I'm predicting a yes this time. However local factors, for example the reorganisation of primary schools in Whitchurch, will inflate the numbers voting no (wanting to kick the WAG) and the result could go either way. Cardiff voting no would be embarrassing to the yes campaign even if they ultimately win the day. I don't really need to explain why.

Similarly I think Torfaen will narrowly vote yes, which will be embarrassing to one prominent member of True Wales in particular. I'm also predicting a Caerphilly "yes", as in 1997.

Blackwood is still in Caerphilly county and not the Chartists Republic of Gwent, am I right? *chuckle*

Newport is a punk-spirit city and likes to demonstrate it's individuality in the shadows of Bristol and Cardiff. I'm predicting a (disappointing) no-vote from Wales's third city, based on the ongoing M4 situation(s) and the perceived lack of any benefit or spin-off from prominent Assembly-backed events like the Ryder Cup and delays to things such as a replacement for the Royal Gwent Hospital. It may be a close run thing though.

Now we come to Anglesey and perhaps my boldest prediction. Again it could go either way, the island is so unpredictable. Perhaps, as a pre-election wake up call to Ieuan Wyn Jones and the WAG over the local government "situation", I'm going to stick my neck out and say Mon Mam Cymru will narrowly vote no, probably only by a few hundred vote margin.

4. Wales will vote "yes" by a margin of under 10%.

Based on (the mean of) my predicted LA vote percentages I'm calling it as Yes 53% No 47% on a 32% turnout. That's not a convincing victory and will probably give the no campaigners more cheer than they deserve, but it'll be enough and I think all yes campaigners will take that result.

Perhaps I'm just being realistic, not getting my hopes up to avoid disappointment and the electorate will deliver a yes vote closer to that of the polls (60%+ yes).

I cast a yes vote with pride this morning. It's a very technical, very boring referendum for all concerned but win or lose I can say I used my right to vote, and did the most important thing a yes supporter could do.

I hope this weekend has a pleasantly surprising start, and a pleasantly surprising one in Wales.