Did "One Wales" deliver?

The 3^rd Assembly is to be officially dissolved on March 31st and the election campaign will get into full swing.

In June 2007, Labour and Plaid Cymru signed the "One Wales" agreement and went into coalition together in the Assembly. The document "One Wales - A progressive agenda for the government of Wales" contained a list specific commitments that the new government pledged to deliver in the Assembly term.

The document was divided into 10 parts. Let's see how they did.

Methodology

I'm counting each bulletpointed note in the original One Wales document as a single pledge. I'm not counting anything that I consider to be preamble, legalese or generally refering to proceedures or guidelines. In total this makes 221 pledges.

I've divided each pledge into three categories based on outcome:

• Delivered – A pledge with which it's results can be tracked down easily and readily and has been delivered in its entirity during the Assembly term.
• Half-delivered – Pledges where there is a strong commitment to carry them through beyond the current term, or pledges which have fallen short of their stated aim, but not through any noticeable mismanagement by the government.
• Undelivered – Pledges that have missed their stated aim, target or have not been delivered satisfactorily in the Assembly term for whatever reason.

Summary of One Wales deliveries...or lack there of (Click to enlarge)

1. A Progressive Agenda For Wales

Preamble. Waffle waffle progressive agenda, society, radical, deliverable etc.

2. A Strong and Confident Nation

The referendum on primary law making powers was delivered (and more importantly won). The Holtham Commission was set up to investigate the funding situation for Wales and submitted a report. There are ongoing reviews of governance and delivery in the Welsh public sector and a Strategic Capital Investment Board was set up in 2010. A good start so far.

3. A Healthy Future

Health and Social Services is the biggest spending category in devolved Wales and is almost always at the forefront of political debate because of our aging population and a relatively higher proportion of people with limiting illnesses, both a legacy of industry and economic depression. On the surface of it, not bad at all. One delivery they can really point to as a success is the improvements to public health, exceeding the £190million by £70million and introducing new screening schemes like that for bowel cancer.

However some crucial pledges, like single-site solutions (neurosurgery) and not-for-profit nursing homes have failed to materialise to any great extent. The most important factor in health is delivery on the ground, and the biggest non-delivery is failing to meet the 26 week waiting time target for all referrals, though they are very close to doing it at about 93-96%.

4. A Prosperous Society

Like health, the one big stand-out pledge, 80% employment, wasn't delivered. Even during the peak of the boom employment levels in Wales were, at best, 74-75%. Although regeneration investment is ongoing in the Head of the Valleys and Mon a Menai, the lack of any real return means I'm counting it as half-delivered. Similarly with a pledge to make it easier for small firms to win government contracts. Is it easier? I'm not sure.

However, again it looks good for One Wales. Many pledges were delivered, like the Single Investment Fund, the Economic Renewal Plan, Assembly relocation, business rate relief (though perhaps not far enough), public procurement that encourages training the unemployed (i.e Church Village Bypass), support for farmers markets and back-to-work schemes backed by the DWP and with Objective One funding.

5. Living Communities

Practically every single housing pledge in the One Wales document has been delivered. These include the housing LCO and increased spending on social housing. The exception is a pledge relating to making it easier for charities to dispose land for affordable housing. That particular one was within Westminster's remit (charity law) and the WAG were merely lobbying. It's hard to tell if anything actually came out of it.

When it comes to transport, again practically all pledges were met. There were improvements to north-south travel, which is now better that at any point in Welsh history (which isn't saying much). The only exceptions I'm counting as half-delivered are reducing rail travel times between north-south and improving station safety because arguably these measures haven't been that successful. Similarly improvements to Traws-Cambria have only just gone through the consultation process when 2011 was set as a deadline. At least there's a commitment there.

6. Learning for life

WAG education policy has been overshadowed by the poor PISA test results. However, once again, the bulk of the One Wales pledges have been delivered including a national youth work fund, a broader Welsh baccalaureate, maintaining tution fees, improved rights for SEN pupils, increased capital expenditure on school buildings and some minor goals relating to school sports. Also included are after-school pilots, called the "Buzz club" which is aimed towards developing talents. There are also more WAG-funded apprenticeships with almost 23,000 people on them in 2010.

However the Coleg Ffederal is currently going through the motions and a though the commitment is there, it hasn't moved from the planning stage. Class sizes haven't reduced. The "National Science Academy" isn't that at all and just a promotion of STEM subjects in schools, which is a big let down and I'm classing it as undelivered.

Education is likely to be one of the big topics in the forthcoming election, but One Wales can say they've largely delivered what they promised, even if the big matters, like class sizes and attainment, remain an ongoing problem.

7. Fair and Just Society

Although many things have been delivered yet again, this is one of the most disappointing sections in terms of actual policy.

The target to eliminate and halve child poverty by 2020 and 2010 respectively is looking wildly optimistic. Although it has fallen/stabilised, this was just a wild stab at a policy, not faulting it's ambitions.

A lot of the pledges in this section were wooly liberal buzz-word type ones. Lots of "inclusion" and "strategy" and "implimentation" but very little hard policy. Some big deliveries were the Children and Families LCO, improvements/reviews to substance abuse policies and those relating to hate crimes. When it comes to hate crime it's actually gone beyond the strategy room and there are now dedicated hate crime services in Wales.

One important pledge missed was to look into the devolution of criminal justice. It's only now being mentioned post-referendum.

8. A Sustainable Environment

The Assembly has a pretty good track record when it comes to the environment and rural affairs (within it's comptency) and it continues through One Wales. Practically all pledges have been delivered including a climate change commission, commitments to reduce carbon emmissions, improvements in farming support, local food production, strategies for energy and rural development and the devolution of building regulations.

The badger cull, listed in One Wales as bovine TB eradication, I'm counting as half delivered. The will is clearly there, but various legal obstacles have tied the WAG's hands. The only pledge undelivered was to place "maximum restrictions on GM crops". Instead the WAG has adopted a cautious acceptance stance rather than "maximum restrictions".

9. Rich and Diverse Culture

A multitude of commitments relating to culture and heritage have been delivered, including the new Welsh Language LCO and Measure, pledges relating to free sport schemes, establishing new art galleries, public ownership of green spaces (Playing Fields measure) and increased investment in libraries.

A few of the pledges are obtuse, or hard to tell if they actually have been delivered. For example did One Wales really "support Welsh artist participation on the World stage"? Have they "raised Wales's international profile"? Does Golwg360 count as "expanded funding and support for Welsh language media"?

Some missed pledges include the failed attempt at a "dot.cym" domain, the intriguing "enshrining artistic freedom in Welsh law", and those relating to maximising Wales's global presence. It just hasn't happened really, has it.

One important pledge kept is relating to UN goals. The UN Rights of the Child have recently become part of Welsh law for example, the first nation of the UK to do so. I haven't listed Huw Lewis as a minister responsible for this brief but he deserves credit for that.

10. Government Arrangements

There's nothing in this section I would count as a specific pledge. It mainly relates to how the coalition would work but by and large any pledges here have been delivered. The coalition has been harmonious on the surface of it and I'm willing to bet it's worked a lot better than Labour and Plaid would've expected. It's been stable. There have been no scandals of any real note aside from the usual complains about specifics relating to public service delivery that have been going on for time immemorial.

Conclusion

It's very rare that a government can point to delivering 80% of what they promised (90%+ if you include half-delivered pledges).

However what this tells me is that the One Wales Agreement lacked ambition and looked for easily deliverable, "soft" targets. With the 4^th Assembly having new law making powers, it's time for our politicians to step their game up.

If there is to be any "One Wales – Part II", then not only will there need to be bolder pledges, there will need to be delivery where it really matters – waiting lists, class sizes, job creation.

That doesn't take away the achievments of One Wales. They can be pleased, proud even, but they have to push themselves now and aim higher. For Wales's sake.