The Banana Kingdom - NOTW scandal exposes UK's uncomfortable truths

It's said there are "worse revelations on the way" in the ongoing News of the World scandal, which beggars belief. This is what could be described as a "moral event horizon". The bottom of barrels haven't just been scraped, they've been punched through into the stinking mulch underneath.

The great irony in all this, is that a 168-year old newspaper's closure has been sped-up by the cynicism it - and other tabloids - have fermented in the "British" public's psyche. It's also ironic that it was brought down by the classic, tenacious investigative journalism that it used to be known for a long time ago.

It goes without saying that this investigation will expand to include other newspapers as well, the NOTW mess just opened the door.

This scandal has exposed some very good things about "Britain"; how it operates, the public and the entire foundation of its political system. It's also brought an awful lot of bad things to the fore.

Firstly, the relationship between the police and journalists. A sizable section of the "British" public have a blood curdling thirst for revenge - not justice - fuelled by populist UK criminal justice policy, and a runaway media that leaves no stone uncovered in the search for a byline. If this thirst extends to harassing victims families, or hacking dead teenagers phones, so be it. It sells papers.

Since they can't go to the local gallows anymore, the closest thing to that is seeing a villain plastered all over a front page, getting their comeuppance. Even better if it's a "celebrity". It's been alluded to that the only place journalists could get the information is from the police. "Britain's top police force" - the same force considered the most important in "EnglandandWales" - perhaps the whole UK, seems to have a sticky finger or two in this scandal. Can it really be considered fit enough to investigate itself?

Jac O' the North has an excellent piece on this, and although he links it very much to England - perhaps rightly - the anomaly of "EnglandandWales" makes this particular police problem as much ours too.

Secondly, the relationship between the media - especially the print media - and past and current UK governments. What's clear from this scandal is just how spineless MPs have been in standing up to the "Murdoch Empire". It's all very well the likes of Tom Watson and Chris Bryant making a creditable and welcome stand once the worst-of-the-worst is out, and News International is at it's lowest, but why didn't they do this years ago? Vince Cable can certainly consider himself largely vindicated now at least.

It wasn't the Sun "wot" won the 1992 UK Election for the Tories, it was Neil Kinnock's cringe-worthy triumphalism in Sheffield. Labour were never home and dry at any point during that campaign. After that result, Labour and Tories alike believed that, to win elections, you need the Murdoch Media on "your side". They wanted to think that winning elections was as easy as keeping the right red-top on side for a few months every 4 or 5 years. By doing this, they helped create a monster. The ultimate playground bully.

The reactions from MPs the last week have been akin to seeing that rather unpleasant kid in the playground kicked in the bollocks for the first time. Now they're all clamouring (especially Labour) to stick in a boot while they can. They know this is the best chance to "take back some power" for themselves from the press and Rupert Murdoch.

Except they've had the power the whole time. They've just been too cowardly to use it. They've allowed themselves to be far too concerned about how they look. Of course if our MPs and celebrities were better behaved in the first place, they might not have had any reason to "fear" the tabloids.

People like to call Westminster the "mother of Parliaments". It appears as though far too many of our MPs have been infantalised by this, and too busy preening in the mirror to do their job properly. Hugh Grant, Steve Coogan and yes - even the devolved administrations - look grown up by comparison. Is Westminster really fit for purpose? Or are they just a bunch of wimps? Wednesday's motion on delaying the BSkyB bid looks set to be a big test of this.

Then there's the amount of power held by elite social circles. Whats been dubbed the "Chipping Norton Set" seems to be involved. All that power and influence held by just just a dozen people, even fewer if you discard the likes of ex-Blur bassist Alex James and Jeremy Clarkson. I've no doubt that similar social circles exist in Wales, but it does put the whole "taffia"/crachach thing in perspective. Getting inducted to the Gorsedd of Bards or wangling a job at S4C aren't on the same scale.

There's the prospect of an establishment civil war over this, a second English civil war if you will. The "Cavalier" pro-market, pro-press/Murdoch, anti-regulation elite versus the "Roundhead" pro-press regulation, pro-BBC, anti-Murdoch elite. Instead of the battlefield, it'll be fought in the corridors of Westminster, social networking and - ironically - the press and broadcasters.

What's disturbing is we could be heading for knee-jerk restrictions on press freedom and we - those who read and buy the news rather than make it - will have very little say on the matter.

It'll be caught up in our convoluted "Westminster" parliamentary system for years. Where there is no clear separation of powers, there are an awful lot of grey areas and back alleys where things can be "lost" or conveniently forgotten about. The "British" constitution should be a few pages absolutely everyone in the land can understand. It shouldn't be a library. Wales has an opportunity to do things differently should we decide to in the future.

If this had happened in some "tin pot" eastern European country (the kind Conservatives in particular like to compare Wales to), some African dictatorship or even the United States, the flag wavers for the British project would be reminding us all how great it is to live in a "free", "honourable", "model democracy".

While they get dewy-eyed looking at the Union Flag at the top of Big Ben, they neglect to mention that the Thames stinks of sewage and has done for some considerable time.

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Poverty of ambition hurts Wales most

Some more feel-good news today from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. The Welsh Government's long-held target to eradicate child poverty by 2020 is going to be missed spectacularly if the rate doesn't fall at least four times as fast over the next ten years as it has over the last ten.

In its research, entitled "Monitoring poverty and social exclusion in Wales 2011", the findings conclude that:

• Half of children in poverty in Wales belong to working families.
• Half of the improvement in child poverty rates has been lost in the last 5 years.
• 600,000 people in Wales, including 100,000 pensioners are in relative poverty, 23% of the population.
• One third of adults are disabled or have a disabled partner.

Statistical Tricks

Relative poverty is defined as income falling below 60% of the UK median - once adjustments are made for household size, housing costs and taxation. That median - being a whole UK figure - will no doubt suffer from the "bubble distortion" of South East England and London.

Wales - with average incomes at about 90% of the UK average - is always going to come off relatively badly in these statistics. These statistics also don't take into account the cost of living, which is marginally lower in Wales.

It's safe to say that the "real" relative poverty marker in Wales - 60% of the Welsh median incom -, is lower than that of the rest of the UK. That's probably the same case in other nations and regions as well - for example, the North East England and Northern Ireland.

£290 a week for a couple with two children in Merthyr Tydfil will go further than £290 in Berkshire, yet both will be classed as in relative poverty. Surely "relative poverty" should take these "relative" national and regional differences into account.

The good news we shouldn't ignore

Before we all hang our heads and browbeat ourselves about how we're all failures (the too poor, too thick, too sick gambit) the research also has some good news.

Firstly, that child poverty has fallen and remains lower than in 2000 - despite a recession rebound.

Qualification/skill levels in Wales are massively improved, with more people in Wales aged 25-44 possessing qualifications above Level 3 (A-Levels and degrees) and a big drop in those with qualifications below Level 2 (5 GCSE's A*-C). The unemployment rate in 2010 for those with Level 2 and Level 3 qualifications was lower compared to 2000.

Recent ONS statistics also showed that Wales has the lowest rate of workless households of all the Home Nations at just 1.3%. This will no doubt include a large number - of what the report describes as - "part-working families", for example, a single parent working part-time for the minimum wage. It's these people that have been let-down, as half of children in poverty in Wales belong to a "working household".

Could this be another distortion of the statistics?

Remember that the relative poverty line for a couple with 2 children is £300 per week after deductions. In many parts of Wales, for example the industrial estates of the Valleys, that would be considered a fairly average private sector wage and it would probably stretch a fair bit as well once cost of living is factored in.

I doubt many people in the wealthier parts of the UK would get out of bed for that money. It's a sad indictment of the "race to the bottom" in terms of wages, rising inflation and additional burdens on families such as the VAT rise.

Setting Impossible Targets

"Eradicating child poverty by 2020" is going to be engraved on Welsh Labour's tombstone.

Those parties that decided to ride along with it in the May election should be breathing a sign of relief that they don't have to deliver that pledge - despite foolishly including it in their manifestos.

The report states that "full (time) working" would need to become the norm, the child poverty rate would need to fall four times faster than it has in the last ten years and there would need to be significant policy changes both in Wales (over devolved matters) and in Westminster on things like tax and welfare.

Good luck with that, Carwyn.

The report describes this pledge as "extremely ambitious". I'd describe it as insane.

Relative poverty isn't going to go away. By definition there'll always be a section of the population that have an income below 60% of the median (even if incomes dramatically increased) through no fault of their own. Sadly, children will be caught up in this as well. The recession almost wiped out any progress made in this area in Wales. One of those benefits of being part of the UK, eh?

Having said that, I can't fault the ambition. It's a bit like wanting Wales to win the World Cup. The FIFA World Cup.

Poverty of Ambition

Wales is locked in a cycle of self-fulfilling prophecy and depression. We're naturally pessimistic as a people. We lack confidence and vision. Worse of all, we don't know how to handle success, only manage failure. This is an attitude that's prevalent in our media, our public debate, our homes and to a certain extent our levels of government as well.

There are certain communities in Wales that have been severely let down by the powers that be and by themselves. It isn't a human rights violation to travel from the Valleys to Cardiff to work (if there are jobs in the first place). Likewise it's not right to expect them to do so on scatty, inefficient public transport - only to earn slightly more than they would on benefits.

People shouldn't allow themselves to fall out of education, likewise they should have opportunities to learn to their strengths and not forced down narrow, academic routes.

If we are going to break this cycle, it's not going to be done through reports and commentary from various groups who mean well but tell us what we already knew. Wales needs action, and it doesn't stop at the steps of the Senedd or Westminster, but in every single household of the nation.

Only Wales can better itself - nobody is going to do it for us. We can all aim higher, but we don't have to lose sight of the ground in doing so by aiming for impossible goals or making wacky pledges.

Sometimes it's as simple as trying something new, learning a new skill or taking a new idea to people who can make it a reality.

Government can enable it, but ultimately it comes down to personal responsibility and self-respect - not just as a nation but as individuals that still have something to offer one another no matter how hard times might be.

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Senedd Watch - June 2011

• The Welsh Government declined to "bail out" a struggling care home provider. Southern Cross, which runs 34 homes in Wales, looked to reduce rent bills across the UK after a £311million half-year loss. The Welsh Government said there needed to be a "commercial solution to a commercial problem."
• Capital expenditure forecasts for 2011-12 showed that Welsh Police Authorities are reporting a 35% decrease in their capital budgets to £39million. Overall, there's a 2% decrease in capital spending by local authorities to just over £1.06billion, which include local councils, national parks, police and fire authorities.
• Office of National Statistics data showed that 1.3% of Welsh households have nobody who has ever worked - the lowest rate of all the home nations. England had 1.7%, Scotland 1.9% and Northern Ireland 2.1%.
• Huw Jones was appointed S4C chair by UK Culture Secretary Jeremy Hunt. He was previously chief executive of S4C between 1994 and 2005.
• Angela Burns AM (Con, Carms. West & South Pembs.), said that finding the cause of an explosion at the Chevron Oil Refinery in Pembroke Dock was "crucial" and that she was "very uncomfortable" with some of the rumours about the incident. 4 people were killed in the explosion, with a fifth person in a critical but stable condition.
• The Queen officially opened the 4^th National Assembly of Wales on June 7^th, saying that the institution had "coped admirably" with the growth in its powers. Carwyn Jones said his government would work "night and day" to improve public services and make Wales "healthier and more prosperous".
• Plaid Cymru leader Ieuan Wyn Jones has been criticised for not attending the opening of the 4^th Assembly due to a pre-planned holiday. He responded by saying that he "put his family first".
• Figures obtained by BBC Wales, show that hospitals in Wales are becoming routinely overcrowded, leading to concerns about patient safety and cancelled operations. At some hospitals - such as University Hospital, Cardiff - the bed occupancy rate was 93%, while the Royal College of Surgeons suggests a maximum occupancy rate of 82%.
• A former Lib Dem AM, Elenor Burnham, described leader Kirsty Williams' handling of the disqualification of two list AMs as a "shambles" and that it "looks like a farce". On June 23^rd it was announced that they would not face criminal charges.
• The First Minister refused to say whether a planned badger cull will go ahead. The previous Welsh Government pledged to carry out a cull, that was subsequently put on hold. Deputy Minister for Agriculture, Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent) is a supporter of a cull. On June 21^st the cull was put on hold, pending an independent review of the science.
• The Welsh Government temporarily reopened the ProAct scheme to companies affected by the Tohoku earthquake, which  disrupted production in Japan. £4million has been made available.
• Unemployment in Wales fell by 9,000 in the three months to April, to stand at 7.9%, slightly above the UK average of 7.7%. There was also a fall of 10,000 in the number of people categorised as economically inactive.
• The value of exports from Wales rose sharply by 30% in the first quarter of 2011 to £3.18billion. During the 12 month period, Wales experienced the largest increase in exports of all the nations and regions of the UK.
• The Higher Education Funding Council for Wales (HEFCW) rejected plans by Welsh universities to charge the maximum £9000 a year tuition fees, because they failed to meet certain requirements such as equal access and improving student experience.
• The Welsh Government announced that in future, planning guidelines for wind farms will be regarded as an "upper limit". This comes in response to a protest by Montgomeryshire residents against wind farms in their area. Carwyn Jones also called for the devolution of large energy projects to the Welsh Assembly. The UK Government has denied that there were any moves to devolve the powers, a situation described as a "slap in the face for Wales".
• Plaid Cymru have appointed former Welsh Government special advisor Rhuanedd Richards as their new chief executive. She said that Plaid needed to "broaden its appeal" but that there was "no sense of crisis" in the party.
• Joyce Watson AM (Lab, Mid & West Wales)  said that the "stigma" of receiving free schools meals should be ended by a system of cashless payments.
• From the end of this month, all payments over £25,000 will be listed on a monthly basis by the Welsh Government. The First Minister said "we are constantly looking to publish information that is of most use to the people of Wales to whom we are accountable".
• A new National Literacy & Numeracy Framework for 5-14 year old was announced by Education Minister Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda). It will help inform teachers of how to apply literacy and numeracy across the curriculum and monitor pupil progress. It is due to be rolled out across Wales by 2013.
• ONS mid-year population estimates for Wales in 2010 show that the resident population crossed the 3million mark for the first time to stand at 3,006,400.
• Projects announced this month include £21.5million to reduce orthopaedic waiting times, the £150million Gilwern-Brynmawr phase of A465 duelling (due to start in 2014), the granting of a licence for a £1billion gas-fired power station in Pembrokeshire and a £36million reorganisation of primary schools in Powys.

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UK Government puts Charley to sleep

Mwrarawrwrararww
"Charley says his P45 is in the post"

The Central Office of Information (COI) is to close next year, with the loss of up to 400 jobs.

In the grand scheme of things, I guess such a move can be expected as it's low-hanging fruit for spending cuts. But believe it or not, this brings to close a long relationship between government and the public. A relationship that most of us don't know is there but certainly remember.

What I'm referring to of course, are public information films.

"Nanny state" to some. Life savers to others.

How many lives have been saved by Charley the cat's "advice" down the years? Or the Green Cross Code man? Perhaps Donald Pleasance's most important career role was to warn children to stay away from stagnant bodies of water.

Modern public information films are a far more polished, expensive and audience-savvy exercise and I doubt they will disappear all together. However, in a climate where attacking the "big state" is a popular thing to do - and sometimes the right thing - we should remember that even though it's not very glamorous sounding, the COI might've helped us all at some point.

Whether it's taking extra care with chip pans, or making sure you don't accidentally on purpose get hit by a train. It was comforting to know that the state actually cared enough about you to warn you of these things - even if it came across as incessant nagging.

I don't think anyone will believe me when I say we owe the COI a debt of gratitude, but younger versions of ourselves probably do.

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Is that it!? - Labour's legislative programme aims low

I've always believed - to a certain extent - in the mantra "aim low and you'll never be disappointed". Some might say this is pessimistic, others might say realistic. When governments do this though, it takes on a whole new meaning.

Considering the high turnover in AMs, it's perfectly sensible to slow down the pace of the Assembly in the first few months when it comes to legislation. The Assembly shouldn't rush into making laws for the sake of it, Geraint Talfan Davies explores that in more detail here.

However, when looking at Labour's legislative proposals, one thing stands out and is becoming depressingly familiar - a complete lack of ambition.

• Two proposed Bills could easily be described as "tidying up" previous measures: Children's Rights and Social Care Regulations.
• One is important, but should've been largely unnecessary : the Education Bill. A funding body for Higher Education already exists!
• Four proposed bills are structural changes and about "efficiency". These could just as easily be dealt with through policy delivery and don't need to be on the statute book. This includes the Cycling Bill and Heritage Protection Bill.
• Three are what I would personally consider "proper" laws, including the Sustainable Development Bill, (long overdue) changes to planning laws and the Organ Donation Bill.

Please excuse me while I try to contain my excitement.

One of the valid criticisms of the Assembly and Welsh Government since devolution is an obsession with procedure, managerialism and micro-management. I don't want to see this creep into our laws. I'd rather have five good bills than ten mediocre ones.

I hope the opposition parties push hard to ensure these "tinkering, tidying up and efficiency bills" are given a lot more meat.

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Senedd Watch - May 2011

Seeing how the Welsh Government has undergone a long overdue re-brand, "WAG Watch" now stands for Welsh Assembly & Government Watch - I guess.

• Labour made gains in the Assembly election, winning 30 seats, falling short of an overall majority. The Conservatives won an extra two seats but lost their leader Nick Bourne. Plaid Cymru had a disappointing night, losing 4 seats - including the party's deputy leader Helen Mary Jones. The Lib Dems only lost a single seat overall, but saw their share of the vote fall and lost 2 FPTP constituencies - including Cardiff Central.
• Paul Davies (Con, Preseli Pembrokeshire) was made interim leader of the Welsh Conservatives while a leadership contest gets underway. He has, however, ruled himself out of the race. A new leader is due to be announced on July 11^th. Andrew RT Davies (Con, South Wales Central) and Nick Ramsey (Con, Monmouthshire) are the only leadership candidates .
• The fourth National Assembly of Wales convened on 11^th May and began with a tribute to the late regional list AM for North Wales, Brynle Williams.
• Rosemary Butler (Lab, Newport West) was appointed as Llywydd unopposed, replacing Lord Dafydd Elis-Thomas, who stands down from the role after 12 years.
• David Melding and William Graham were both nominated for the post of Deputy Llywydd. David Melding AM (Con, South Wales Central) was elected by 46 votes to 12 in a secret ballot.
• Carwyn Jones AM (Lab, Bridgend) was appointed as First Minister unopposed.
• Ieuan Wyn Jones AM (Plaid, Ynys Mon) announced that he is to stand down as Plaid Cymru leader "in the first half of the Assembly term".
• Department of Work and Pensions statistics reveal that 23% of the population of Wales live in relative income poverty - the same rate as England but higher than Scotland (19%) and Northern Ireland (22%). 33% of children lived in relative income poverty, the highest rate of the home nations, Scotland having the lowest rate at 25%. 17% of pensioners in Wales lived in relative income poverty - the same rate as England, higher than Scotland (13%) but lower than Northern Ireland (21%)
• Simon Thomas AM (Plaid, Mid & West Wales) has called for the Welsh Government to publish a programme of government and "demonstrate their commitment to co-operation in order to get their plans through the Senedd".
• Kevin Davies AM (Lab, Llanelli) criticised comments made by former WJEC exam board chair, Jeff Jones, that the Welsh Baccalaureate was "an A level with a load on nonsense added on". This comes after news that Cardiff University refused to accept the qualification for a history and politics course.
• Two newly elected Lib Dem regional list AM's - Aled Roberts and John Dixon - were disqualified from the Assembly for retaining membership of organisations that AMs were barred from being members of. UKIP MEP John Bufton referred the pair to the police for electoral fraud.
• Unemployment in Wales fell sharply by 10,000, with the unemployment rate now exactly the same as the UK average at 7.7%. Unemployment and economic inactivity in Wales have also had sharper falls than the UK average compared to last year.
• First Minister Carwyn Jones described the UK Government's decision to downgrade Newport passport office as "extremely disappointing news".
• Around 1,500 people gathered outside the Senedd on May 24^th to protest against TAN 8, the UK and Welsh Government's policy to generate more renewable energy. Of particular concern were the building of new windfarms in Mid Wales and a power line from Montgomeryshire to Shrewsbury.
• Office of National Statistics data showed that 50,400 people from the rest of the UK moved to Wales while 48,500 left, with net inward migration of 1,900 in the twelve months to September 2010.
• Alun Ffred Jones AM (Plaid, Arfon) has written to Llywydd Rosemary Butler, criticising the Assembly Commission for not setting up committees quickly enough, saying that there was a sense of "lethargy" and that AMs were "pottering around". He criticised the Welsh Government for being slow in setting out a programme of government compared to the Scottish Government.
• Theodore Huckle QC, was appointed Consul General, the Assembly Government's senior legal advisor, on May 27^th.
• First Minister Carwyn Jones joined his counterparts in Scotland and Northern Ireland for a trilateral summit in Edinburgh on May 31^st. The meeting was to discuss shared agendas for the term ahead.
• Major projects announced this month include the start of the £35m Wrexham Industrial Estate Access Road(s), a proposed leisure resort on Anglesey that could create up to 600 jobs and a £77m refurbishment of Ysbyty Glan Clwyd in Bodelwyddan, Denbighshire.

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The new Welsh Government takes shape

Carwyn Jones – First Minister

Well....duh. Though it seems as though the role of First Minister is going to be a lot more beefed up - dare I say it, presidential. Carwyn Jones will be taking a more hands on role in external affairs (dealing with Westminster and the EU) as well as energy, curiously. I'm not sure why exactly. We'll have to wait and see how that plays out.

Edwina Hart – Business, Enterprise & Technology

One of the surprises. The Welsh business community have called for a "big beast" for the economy portfolio and Edwina is one of those. Being one of the few Labour AMs that actually has private sector experience will work in her favour. Her strong association with the trade union movement, and being on the left of Welsh Labour, won't. I'm not sure whether she would consider this a demotion or not. She has a very tough task ahead of her, and needs to hit the ground running. It's unclear if she'll also have the transport portfolio, but I presume that's the case.

Lesley Griffiths – Health & Social Services

A promotion - and a big one at that - considering the importance of this particular portfolio. I honestly don't know that much about Lesley, but I was disappointed at both her, and John Griffiths' approach to science in particular. This portfolio will certainly push Lesley to the front of Welsh Labour, and I think we'll get a better idea of what she's really made of as this is one of the "poison chalice" posts. Clearly Carwyn Jones and Labour have a lot of faith in her.

Jane Hutt – Finance & Leader of the House

To say she's struggled to find a niche in cabinet in recent years is an understatement. However, I think she finally found it as Finance Minister. Steady as she goes. There will be question marks over her failure to secure a fairer funding formula in the last Assembly though.

John Griffiths – Environment & Sustainable Development

Another promotion, but he has big shoes to fill. I'm surprised that energy hasn't been included in this portfolio or rural affairs. Like his namesake Lesley, I don't know too much about John, but this post gives him the opportunity to make more of a name for himself. He's apparently well regarded in the Senedd, so this appointment/promotion isn't a total surprise.

Leighton Andrews – Education & Skills

I would've bet on him getting the Economy portfolio, but with the changes he's planned for Welsh schools, it makes sense to keep Leighton in the post to oversee them. I think he's stored a lot of problems for himself though, especially with regard higher education and tackling underperformance.

Carl Sargeant – Local Government & Communities

No rocking the boat once again, and makes sense.

Huw Lewis – Housing, Regeneration & Heritage

I don't object to Huw Lewis getting a cabinet post, but the portfolio seems a bit of a mish-mash of unrelated matters. Housing and Heritage don't really go together do they? Regeneration and social justice does seem to be a matter close to Huw's heart, so I've no doubting his commitment to that role. I just hope the regeneration direction of this government doesn't go down one of these ridiculous "community cul-de-sacs" where economic development takes a back seat to more trivial concerns. Sort of like how Communities First turned out.

However Huw Lewis in the Heritage post. Are Labour trying to bait Plaid with that one?

Gwenda Thomas – Deputy Minister for Social Services

Another steady as she goes appointment, and I don't see any problems there.

Jeff Cuthbert – Deputy Minister for Skills

I've never had Jeff Cuthbert down as minister material to be honest. However, he does have a technical background and if he can work hard on improving vocational and STEM education in Wales he'll go up in my book. I think he can be one of the surprises (in a good way). I just hope he doesn't fall into the trap of previous deputy ministers and become anonymous.

Alun Davies – Deputy Minister for Agriculture, Food, Fisheries & European Programmes

This is certainly a step down from Elin Jones, and Labour are muting one of their most effective backbenchers. However, I'm sure Alun can - and will - do justice to the job. Does European Programmes include Objective One? If that's the case surely it makes more sense to put that with the economy portfolio.

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Paying the Price of Power - Election 2011 Results

Well I was on the ball with my predictions then......*facepalm*

• Plaid Cymru - and to a lesser extent the Lib Dems - slammed by resurgent Labour in Wales, who fall short of an overall majority.
• Nick Bourne loses seat while Welsh Conservatives enjoy a good night overall.
• Labour make gains in council elections in England, at the expense of Lib Dems. The Conservatives enjoy some local election gains as well.
• SNP triumphant in Scottish Parliament elections, at the expense of Labour and the Lib Dems, winning an overall majority for the first time. Pro-independence parties now dominate Holyrood. Jealous? Moi?

The 4^th National Assembly of Wales

Our newly elected AMs (Click to enlarge)

                              Prediction         Actual

Labour                         28                30 (+4)
Plaid Cymru                 13                11 (-4)
Conservatives            13                14 (+2)
Liberal Democrats        4                  5 (-1)
Greens                           1                  0 (n/c)
UKIP                               1                  0 (n/c)
Independents                0                  0 (-1)

Labour

A good night, prevented by the Aberconwy result from being an excellent one. There's no question they run a very effective campaign off the back of Westminster issues, and in Carwyn Jones they have someone who people might find trustworthy and a safe pair of hands.

They'll be pleased to have retaken Llanelli, even if it was by the slimmest of margins, and they'll also be pleased they comprehensively held off Ron Davies' challenge in Caerphilly. Their biggest achievement in my view, was turning the capital red. Once that happened all bets were off.

They should be cautious that they don't get too carried away. I predict they will still end up going into a coalition of some kind. 30 seats is just too awkward.

Conservatives

An excellent night, spoiled by the loss of Nick Bourne and Jonathan Morgan. They've conducted a low-key campaign but avoided some of the mud slinging that's happened - especially between Labour and Plaid.

I doubt Nick Bourne would've seen out the coming Assembly term as leader anyway, so a leadership contest was always on the cards in my opinion, it's just happening one or two years earlier. He leaves a very strong legacy however, and something the Welsh Conservatives can build on. I just hope that his successor continues to carve out a distinct Welsh brand and voice or many of their gains could be easy pickings in 2016.

They might not show it on their faces, but they'll be delighted with the result.

Liberal Democrats

What started off as a poor night, ended up a not so bad a night, especially when you compare it to the English local elections and the Scottish Parliament election. Losing just one seat in the face of such protest isn't bad at all.

They should be humble and not play that up too much, they could very easily have been on 4 or less seats had a few hundred votes gone the right way. They clearly benefited from the additional member system the most, to Plaid's detriment.

I fully expect them to be Labour's first port of call in any coalition negotiations, if Labour decide to do so. I'd call that a result.

Plaid Cymru

I make no bones about it, Plaid had an absolute stinker. I would set a Plaid "floor" at 12 seats and anything below that is an awful result.

Of course, had a few hundred votes gone the right way, they could've very easily ended up with 13 or 14 seats which would've been a good result all in all. However, you can see that Plaid and the SNP are now on completely different planets when it comes to political and constitutional progress.

Plaid secured a successful referendum on law making powers. That's a victory and a feather in their cap. However, when the "messy divorce" with Labour happened, they played it the wrong way. They will have to learn to rise above Labour's tricks during elections and carve out a proper USP for themselves.

A period in opposition will do them good, and it's not all bad news, with some fresh faces coming in like Simon Thomas, Llyr Huws Griffiths and Lyndsey Whittle. However, when it comes to talk of leadership changes, I don't see anyone who could realistically step up to the job.

None of the right candidates are in the right place. Adam Price, Nerys Evans and HMJ can't be elected/re-elected to the Assembly until 2016 at the earliest (barring a by-election), Elfyn Llwyd and Dafydd Wigley are down the M4, I doubt any of the other re-elected AMs would want to run for the leadership, and it would be presumptuous for any of the "new" Plaid members to make a run at it.

The buck doesn't always stop at the leader. Plaid need to allow a short period of introspection and come out fighting. Labour are going to disappoint a lot of people over the next five years, and there will be only one alternative to the three other parties - all of whom in power in some shape or form. Plaid need to position themselves to take advantage of it.

Minor Parties

The Greens must be gutted. It seems as though Labour voters didn't use their second vote for them after all and ended up wasting them. I thought they were nailed on for a seat, but polls aren't always right. I think they'll do well in next year's local elections though, especially in Cardiff.

UKIP clearly couldn't get their vote out and didn't do anywhere near as well as predicted. Paradoxically, I would have UKIP supporters in Wales down as the sort who wouldn't vote in an Assembly election anyway. In the long term, have a decent enough base to build on though. I imagine they'll get there in the end.

The BNP saw their share of the vote drop. Good.

The various Socialist sects had a fairly solid showing, especially the Socialist Labour Party who out polled the BNP. If they had stood as one ticket, in the manner of "Die Linke" instead of several bald men competing over a hammer and sickle, they could've pushed UKIP.

English Democrats lose their deposit once again. Take the hint.

The Christian People's Alliance must be such a great party that even their members forgot to vote for them. Expect their result to pop up in "and finally..." news stories and political almanacs. The Christian Party proper polled less than 1%. "Jesus don't want me for a sunbeam".

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Election 2011 : Predictions

I've been conservative in my predictions, just as I was with the Assembly referendum. I'm basing this on a "no big shock" factor. That means incumbents by and large holding their seats. Labour can reach 30 or 31 seats, but it's going to be a very, very big ask.

If Labour don't win Llanelli, Carmarthen West, Cardiff North, Aberconwy, Clwyd West and hold Caerphilly, their chances of a majority are dead in the water.

This election will be won or lost in Mid & West Wales and the North Wales regional list.

I think MH over at Syniadau has reached a similar conclusion, albeit with different constituency and regional permutations.

Labour have burned too many bridges with Plaid for a One Wales 2 and I predict will opt for a mini-rainbow coalition with the Liberal Democrats and my predicted Green AM for South Wales Central (likely on condition of dropping support for nuclear power, which will be more difficult than first appears). This will give a slightly shaky, but workable, majority of 3 (not including possible appointments of Llywydd and Deputy Llywydd).

A UKIP AM being elected - and I predict they will make a gain on the regional list - will end any chance of a rainbow coalition.


TL;DR Version

Labour                  28 (+2)
Lib Dems                4 (-2)
Conservatives    13 (+1)
Plaid Cymru         13 (-2)
Green                     1 (+1)
UKIP                       1 (+1)
Independents        0 (-1)

• Turnout in the low 40's
• Labour to fall short of an overall majority, will go into Lab-Lib-Green coalition.
• Labour to gain Carmarthen West & South Pembs., Clwyd West, Blaenau Gwent and hold Caerphilly. Regional list results will prevent them reaching 30-31 seats. Vote share will rise significantly but mainly in constituency seats they already hold.
• Lib Dems to hold Cardiff Central, but lose Montgomeryshire to Tories. Vote share to fall by as much as 7-8% nationally compared to 2007.
• Plaid to lose Aberconwy to Tories, but should hold their other constituencies and regional list seats. Vote share will fall by 3-4% nationally.
• Greens and UKIP to get first AMs in South Wales Central and North Wales respectively.
• Nick Bourne to remain leader of the opposition. Conservatives to hold Cardiff North. Vote share to stay stable, or even rise slightly by 2-3% nationally and put them into second place.

AV Referendum

I haven't blogged a lot about this because to be frank, I couldn't care less. This is a sop compromise and AV isn't any proper, radical alternative. If it were AV+ or STV - now you're talking. I voted yes though, as at least it's a step forward in electoral reform albeit a baby step.

I think the overall UK result will be a "no" - probably something like 56-44. It all depends on how many people vote in England. A lower turnout there will help the yes campaign in my opinion, as votes in the devolved nations - which might lean more towards a yes vote - will have greater significance.

It will open a can of worms if a yes result was dependent on votes from Scotland in particular, and if the SNP are returned to government.


Predicted make up of the 4^th National Assembly

Our new AM's? (Click to enlarge)

South Wales West

No changes at all at constituency or regional level, except in the voting percentages. That's a nice and easy prediction dealt with.


South Wales Central

Labour will hold all of their constituencies, and will run the Lib Dems close in Cardiff Central. My gut feeling is that that Lib Dems will retain Cardiff Central by the skin of their teeth, which should secure a second Plaid seat on the regional list. The Tories should also hang on to Cardiff North but again it's a close run thing. It's results like this that will determine if Labour get a majority or not.

This will be one of the areas where Tory, Lib Dem and Plaid support will fall hardest. Greens will be able to get themselves on the regional list at the expense of a second Plaid or Conservative seat. I'm going to go for the Conservatives, who I believe will face a sharper fall in support than Plaid which means the regrettable loss of David Melding.

South Wales East

Like South Wales Central, this is where Lib Dem and Plaid support will fall sharpest. The biggest question mark is over Caerphilly. I think it will go to a recount but I'm not sure what impact the idiotic and childish actions of Wayne David will have on it.

I'm going to make a conservative estimate and say that Labour will hold Caerphilly on the night, which will be a big disappointment for Plaid, but should mean they keep hold of a regional seat. Other than an easy gain for Labour in Blaenau Gwent there'll be no other changes at constituency level.

I think Plaid will probably come off worse than the Tories here in the regional vote, and in a flip side to South Wales Central, the Tories will "gain" a second regional seat. Contentiously held by Mohammad Ashgar since he crossed the floor.

Mid & West Wales

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire will be another very close fight, probably to a recount once again. I predict that Labour will come out on top, which could result in 2 Tory list seats. Labour will probably push Plaid very close in Llanelli. I wouldn't rule out a change of hands there, but I think it's unlikely and Plaid will hold Llanelli....just. I also think the Conservatives will gain Montgomery as they did last year, which will be something of a blow to the Lib Dems.

North Wales

Most of the interesting battles are going to be here. I predict Aberconwy and Clwyd West will change hands, to the Conservatives and Labour respectively. There's also the possibility of a three-way fight in Clwyd South as well, but Labour should hang on. I think there's a long-odds possibility of shock on Ynys Mon, though I think Plaid should hold it. The Lib Dems could be wiped out in north Wales - to either Plaid's or UKIP's advantage. I think UKIP might just have the edge though if they can get their vote out.


Other Predictions

• Plenty of shots of glum faced Plaid Cymru and Lib Dem activists at counts.
• Plenty of shots of cheering Labour and Conservative activists mixed with concerned looking ones in another part of Wales.
• Turnout will be described as "poor" if it's below 50%, and there'll be lots of talk about how the Assembly "hasn't been taken to the hearts of the people of Wales" until the first results come through.
• Countless mentions of "a more powerful Assembly" in the first 10-20 minutes.
• Mentions of the delayed North Wales count "ruining the spectacle of election night".
• Lots of "coming home to Labour" talk, with Paul Murphy and Peter Hain leading it with referrals to "Tory cuts" in at least every other sentence.
• Every party will say they're hearing "good things from (X constituency/region)".
• Ieuan Wyn Jones will take 5 minutes to say something that could be said in 30 seconds.
• Kirsty Williams will say "part of the burden of being in Government in Westminster".
• All the party leaders will say they "haven't ruled anything out" with regard coalition deals.
• Labour will say that the "people of Wales clearly want a Labour/Labour-led government" regardless of how many seats they win.

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Election 2011 : Final Campaign Round Up

Well that's that.

One of the most insipid, uninspiring and (on the ground) nasty election campaigns in the Welsh Assembly's short history draws to a close. Each and every party should be embarrassed - ashamed even - at how they've conducted themselves and their campaigns. I don't think it's entirely their fault, but they played more than their fair role.

This might very well be a good election to lose, there might very well be a lot of hard decisions in the coming years that will make them unpopular, but they've let us down badly. We finally grasped self-determination in March, but by May I'm wondering why we bothered.

I'll be posting my predictions tomorrow, and I've come to some surprising conclusions. But to each and every candidate who might be reading this - especially those who have Wales's best interests at heart (you know who you are) - I wish you the very best of luck.

Conservatives:

• Have been forced to withdraw an election leaflet that claimed Labour wanted to close down Neath Port Talbot hospital if they won.
• Prime Minister David Cameron joined the Conservative campaign trail in north Wales and warned that Labour would make NHS cuts.
• Candidate for Cardiff Central, Matt Smith, has been forced to apologise after comparing the Respect Party to paedophiles.
• The tweets of North Wales list candidate John Broughton have come under the spotlight, saying that Plaid's Heledd Fychan was "odd", Plaid's Helen Mary Jones was "a fruitcake", that party leader Nick Bourne was "nice guy, completely wrong policy".
• Nick Bourne campaigned on Anglesey saying they needed to help small businesses, "not strangle them with red tape and with burdens like high business rates".

Labour:

• Have attacked Conservative plans to reintroduce prescription charges, labeling it a "tablet tax".
• Ynys Mon candidate Joe Lock, has apologised after saying he "hoped Margaret Thatcher dies soon" on his Facebook account.
• Campaigned in Haverfordwest against the closure of Milford Haven and Holyhead coastguard stations.
• Carwyn Jones has reiterated that Labour are the only party that "won't do a deal with the Tories" and that voting Lib Dem or Plaid would "let them in through the back door".
• Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls campaigned in Cardiff, asking people to "do everything possible to mitigate the impact of the Tory cuts".
• Llanelli candidate Keith Davies launched a bizarre attack on Plaid Cymru leader Ieuan Wyn Jones, claiming that pictures of him with his family were "weird".
• In another bizarre incident, Labour MP for Caerphilly Wayne David has been spotted -and admitted to - removing Plaid Cymru placards from front gardens in the constituency, claiming to householders that they were "offensive" and "illegal".

Liberal Democrats:

• Kirsty Williams insisted that Westminster issues are "not an issue on the doorstep".
• Visited Chepstow and discussed their policies for cutting regulations and freezing business rates.
• Outlined their plans for sustainable public transport at Swansea Bus Station.
• Spoke out against the "waste and inefficiency" of One Wales, saying they had turned it "into an art form".

Plaid Cymru:

• Unveiled their plans for a "Homecoming" festival in 2014 to mark Dylan Thomas's centenary and plans to strengthen the "Welsh brand" for tourism.
• Ieuan Wyn Jones promised "transformational" changes to the Welsh education system.
• Criticised the other parties for lacking job creation proposals. Nerys Evans said "whinging won't create a single job – our plan will create up to 50,000 of them".

Minor Parties:

UKIP leader Nigel Farage visited Monmouth, where he said that the main parties in Wales "have merged" and that UKIP provided "a voice of opposition".

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Election 2011 : The BBC Leaders Debate

That was probably the best debate of the election so far (which isn't saying much, to be honest). The standard of debate was a lot better than last week, however I felt the format was odd. Betsan Powys was in danger of losing control at some points, and too quick to interrupt at others. No prizes for guessing which party leader was interrupting and interrupted the most.

I think it summed up the campaign quite nicely. Four leaders trying their best to attack each other in front of disinterested audience, a large bulk of whom will have made their mind up to vote for the big man with the red rosette.

What pleased me most of all, however, was the near absence of Westminster in the debate, apart from a few standard referrals to "cuts".

Finally! Kirsty Williams has threatened to put in a great performance in one of these debates, and at last she did so. Silly faces kept to a minimum. Confident, clear and decisive answers, and an aggressive, almost snarling, tone. She showed each of the other leaders up at some point in the debate, although was caught out herself - albeit fleeting blows easily deflected. This was arguably the best performance of anyone in these debates, but I doubt it will have much impact on the polls, which are looking moribund for the Lib Dems. 8.5/10

"Cthulhu fhtagn!" It's alive! It's alive! Perhaps it was just the skill of the BBC make up artists but Carwyn Jones awakened from his deep slumber last night - and he had to. Labour have been consistently blasé in these debates and acting (although not really implying) as though it was all in the bag. It may very well be, but Carwyn finally stood up as a leader fighting an election, not a monarch waiting for a coronation. He avoided mud slinging where he could, and answered each and every question with ease and clarity. Some of the policies he mentioned highlight Labour's lack of ambition this time around, but his very good closing speech edged him ahead of the remaining two leaders. 7.5/10

Ieuan Wyn Jones was neutered compared to last week's excellent performance, but that doesn't mean he didn't do a good job. He clearly does his homework, but was prone to the odd waffle (see who I was referring too as "interrupting and interrupted" now?). Plaid Cymru's manifesto contained better ideas than were put out by Ieuan last night, he probably forgot them as he tried to make statements as long as possible. He launched the odd attack, but it wasn't as effective as last week, and I think Nick Bourne - in particular - was ready for him this time. Like I said though, it was still a decent enough go at it, and Plaid candidates have done consistently well in these debates it has to be said. 7/10

I might be placing Nick Bourne last, but it should be considered joint third. Much better than last week. He didn't spend his time apologising for Westminster and stood up to scrutiny well. He shouldn't be so dour though. The Welsh Conservative manifesto is bright, and in some cases, visionary. He should be positive about what they offer, not negative about where Wales is at the moment. I wonder if any Welsh Conservatives have ever been to eastern Europe? I'd be delighted for Wales to be compared to Slovenia. Guys, the Cold War is over. They're catching up with us, Wales isn't "falling" to their level. 7/10

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Senedd Watch - April 2011

Just because there's an election on, it doesn't mean the wheels of government stopped:

• The "morning after pill" will now be available in Wales free of charge without a prescription. More controversially, it will also be available to under-16s where there is a clinical need and informed consent.
• The Welsh Local Government Association (WLGA) has called for policing and youth justice to be devolved to the Welsh Assembly. It's believed this stems from opposition to reforms in police authorities by the UK Government - parts of which have been blocked by the Assembly. Labour and the Conservatives have said they have no plans to change the current arrangements, the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru both support devolving the powers.
• The Obundsman for Wales has called for the powers to independently investigate hospices. This is due to several complaints from families about hospice services, and how these complaints were dealt with by Health Inspectorate Wales.
• Higher Education statistics show that Wales has a higher rate of participation by those from lower socio-economic backgrounds and state schools, as well as lower drop-out rates, than the UK average. Also Careers Wales statistics show that 90% of 16-year olds and 80% of 18-19 year olds continued in some form of education or training upon leaving school.
• The Traffic Commissioner for Wales has withdrawn an operating licence from Heart of Wales and St Davids Travel in the south Wales valleys due to poor service, ordering them to pay nearly £10,000 to the Welsh Assembly.
• New Welsh regulations regarding sunbeds came into force. Under-18s will now be banned from using sunbeds, and in October, unsupervised tanning salons will also be banned. This comes weeks after the death of 21-year old Cerys Harding from Cardiff, which raised the issue of an increase in melanomas amongst young people.
• The only major project announced was a £200million+ improvement to rail services in and around Cardiff which includes signal upgrades, platform extensions and station upgrades.
  

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Election 2011 : The ITV Leaders Debate

Firstly I'd like to praise ITV Wales's coverage of this election. It's been good overall, and it's pleasing that a commercial operation has put effort into it. I also think Jonathan Hill did a fine job as host last night, and was quick to point out if something was devolved or not as well as asking one or two awkward rebound questions.

Please don't take this as an endorsement of the Welsh media as a whole, they try their best but we should still look quite jealously at Scotland in this regard.

First and foremost, it was a very impressive performance by Ieuan Wyn Jones. He showed an aggression and passion that he isn't exactly known for. Someone's been at the Relentless!  However, this isn't a "Clegg Moment" in the election campaign overall, for obvious reasons. Despite an annoying tendency to waffle off-topic, and almost being caught out once or twice, it was a very assured performance and one both he and Plaid can be pleased with. I just hope he realises he may have shown his cards too soon for next week's BBC debate. 8/10

A typically eye-catching Kirsty Williams did a good job for the Lib Dems. Is she trying a bit too hard to be on the audience's side though? It seemed a little contrived and cheesy. That doesn't mean she wasn't effective. She can dish out as good as she gets, and caused an awkward moment or two for both IWJ and Carwyn Jones. If she can ditch the prim and proper school girl manners; like raising her hand before speaking, pulling faces as though she's going to "scweem and scweem until I can scweem no more" and went on the offensive more often, she would give off an aura of gravitas and leadership. At the moment it's far too obvious she's in opposition. 7/10

Carwyn Jones was ever affable. However, I think he trod a lot of the same ground as IWJ in his answers - at times both gave near enough exactly the same answer! Sadly for Carwyn, IWJ was more effective. It's the same stuff from Labour about Tory-cuts, and once again I don't think we heard enough Labour policy. He defended Labour's record well, and gave decent enough answers, but what he lacks in these debates is a bit of passion. He's far too laid back. Labour may well walk the election, but their leader at least should appear as though there's something to fight for. 6.5/10

Poor Nick Bourne had the short straw. I don't think he (or Carwyn Jones) expected IWJ to be so aggressive - and it showed - at least initially, in Nick's body language. He seemed very apologetic for his UK colleagues, and spent far too long defending them than promoting the Welsh Conservatives' cause. He did come back into it towards the end and stood up to IWJ's more robust approach. Once again the Conservatives go on the "talk Wales down" road, I wish they would be positive about their own policies and Wales just once. I don't think they are (the much trotted out phrase) "anti-Welsh" but their dour commentary borders on self-loathing. 6/10

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Election 2011 : Week Three

Conservatives:

• Say they would cut the education budget by 12%, but would ensure more funding would go directly to schools and criticised the education record of Labour saying Wales had gone "backwards". They also confirmed they would pursue a tuition fee policy similar to England's.
• Outlined their "blue belt" policy, which would prevent building on flood plains.
• Chancellor George Osbourne visited North Wales and said it was time for a change of government in Wales, saying he was "optimistic" that the Welsh Conservatives would do well.

Labour:

• Leighton Andrews complained there is "systemic failure" in the Welsh education system, but pledged to keep education spending 1% above the Treasury grant and keep the EMA.
• Attacked Plaid Cymru's pledge to seek to devolve criminal justice as it would leave a "£600million hole" in the Assembly's budget.
• Ed Miliband visited Wales and said Labour offered the only alternative to Westminster cuts.

Liberal Democrats:

• Outlined their policies on tourism, including marketing Wales better overseas.
• Outlines their policies on rural affairs, promising to help ease farmers paperwork burden.
• Candidate for Pontypridd, Mike Powell has been questioned by police over alleged "harassment" of aides to the local Labour MP Owen Smith.

Plaid Cymru:

• Continued to attack Labour's education record, Elin Jones said that Plaid were "not scaremongering" but had fundamental differences with Labour on health , education, transport and broadcasting. North Wales candidate Heledd Fychan also criticised Leighton Andrews' threat to close failing schools.
• Outlined their plans for rural mobile phone signals, Ieuan Wyn Jones said that the private sector had "failed to tackle the issue" and that there needed to be a "national programme" to build new masts on publicly owned land.

Minor Parties:

The Communist Party launched their manifesto in Cardiff last weekend, calling for full employment, the nationalisation of key industries and tax rises for the rich and businesses.

The English Democrats launched their Monmouthshire campaign, pledging to hold a referendum on whether Monmouthshire should remain in Wales or become part of England. Former EDP campaign manager Steve Uncles is standing in Monmouthshire.

UKIP MEP John Bufton has defended the decision by North Wales's chief counting officer to delay the counting of regional ballots, saying it was "sensible" and what the four main parties were doing amounted to "bullying".

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Election 2011 : The Manifestos - Minor Parties

If you want one last reminder of what I'm grading the policies on, you can find out here.

Colonel Blimps, Skinheads and Randroids

Click to enlarge

Firstly, I'd like to apologise to Llais Gwynedd for including them with such....illustrious....company. In short, Llais Gwynedd are the only right-leaning party who have anything approaching achieveable aims in their manifesto - even if said manifesto originates from 2008. Keeping local schools open is laudable, as are aims to protect the Welsh language and support renewable energy. That's standard fare, and not dissimilar to what the main parties have pledged. What Llais Gwynedd need is a health dose of realism. Tiny, isolated villages can no longer support the level of services we would all like to see. It makes sense to centralise (within reason), as does focusing major economic development around the Bangor area. It's unfortunate but a hard reality. Quality over quantity.

UKIP no longer oppose the Assembly, which will no doubt disappoint a chunk of their support in Wales. Closing the school funding gap with England is something we've heard from the Lib Dems, likewise elected local officials for police, health boards and education boards is Tory policy. I don't think it would actually make any difference to those services. Replacing AMs with MPs would need a new Act of Parliament, so is unachievable, as is resignation from the EU. This is a Welsh Assembly election guys.

The BNP oppose foreign recruitment to the NHS. I'm counting it as ambitious, but of course would likely lead to the complete collapse of the Welsh NHS. All 5 consultant cardiac surgeons in south west Wales are Asian or of Asian decent. Smart move. ID Cards have nothing to do with the Assembly. They don't seem to have any sort of positive motive towards the Welsh language, making somewhat snide comments about it, hinting at "wasted resources" in maintaining it. Their only "sensible" headline policy, is to oppose green belt building, and however good that sounds, it's not grounded in economic sense. Don't take that as any sort of encouragement, I find the BNP repugnant.

The Christian Party manifesto is obviously from the Gospel of Ron Paul, and is certainly different from the happy-clappy Anglican church we all know and ignore. Privatising hospitals is radical, but would likely lead to rioting in Wales. A new north-south road would be unaffordable, and education vouchers are school selection via the back door. In addition to these, all laws on equality and relating to abortion and stem cells are reserved matters. "And the Lord sayeth that it be a Welsh Assembly election...."

The English Democrats aim to waste a deposit once again. I'm sure if they wanted a Monmouthshire referendum, they probably could do it. They would "lose" badly of course. Statistically, in terms of economic inactivity and GVA per capita, losing the old county of Monmouthshire would be a good thing for Wales. Whether the people of Ebbw Vale and Caerphilly see themselves as English is another matter, but I'm sure the answer is predictable. Will they ever take the hint? Developing a hydrogen based infrastructure is something I can support though. Perhaps they are not that silly after all.

Hippies, The Awkward Squad and Trust-Fund Trots

Click to enlarge

The Greens are the only minor party with a (realistic) chance of getting an AM (if the polls are to be believed). They have some very ambitious goals, such as 50,000 "green" jobs, the phased abolition of tuition fees and free care for the elderly. You can't fault their ambition, but you can fault their ability to face the cuts head on. No matter what they promise, the money won't be there to do it. The only grounded headline policy seems to be electrification of the railways, which each of the main parties share. They're good people, and mean well, but until they can address several key points they're a wasted vote. Firstly the anomaly of an "England and Wales" Green Party, and secondly that they don't even call for the devolution of energy in their manifesto - which renders their great renewable energy goals redundant in an instant.

The Trade Union and Socialist Coalition focus mainly on local government cuts. I'm not even sure if they have any Wales-specific policies. Nonetheless, however much the cuts hurt, they are with us and there is nothing anyone can do about it. None of their policies would really do the Welsh public at large, or the public finances, any real good. Nor does the Assembly really have the ability to address it properly, it can only tinker. I personally believe that public services should remain public, and that's something I share with the TUSC. However, being awkward for the sake of it - without coming to terms with the financial black hole left to us by the City of London and Labour - isn't going to win them any friends, or any real backing.

Arthur Scargill's Socialist Labour Party have been a perennial candidate since the Assembly was founded. Again you can't fault their ambition or idealism. I'd certainly like a 4 day week and retirement at 55 - nothing the Assembly can do about it though. Reopening coal mines would be a backward step as we move towards other forms of energy. Nationalisation of key services is never likely to happen again, no matter how much sense it makes in some cases, for example the railways. Interestingly though, the SLP are the only ones who mention an independence referendum!

The Welsh Communist Party cover very similar ground to both the TUSC and the SLP, as you might expect. This is part of the reason why no hard-left candidates ever get elected - too many sects. The Communists fail to realise the Assembly has no power to tax the rich, and however great full employment sounds on paper it's unlikely to be achieved in a free market. Reorganising post-secondary education and broadcasting sounds interesting, but no real details are given.

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