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Tonight's the night, so it's time for the real fun to begin....
Election 2015 in Wales
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As you probably gathered from Westminster 2015 : The Welsh Battlegrounds I predict (and I suspect most people predict) two changes in Cardiff – Cardiff North and Central going to Labour from the Conservatives and Lib Dems respectively. To liven things up a bit, I'll go with my heart for a change and predict Plaid Cymru will gain Ceredigion from the Lib Dems, perhaps by less than 1,000 votes (my head still says they won't).
Plaid will probably fall far shorter in Llanelli and Ynys Môn than their campaigners would like; Labour similarly in Arfon and Aberconwy, and the Tories in Brecon & Radnorshire. Other than that, I suspect it's going to be a dull night in Wales with all eyes on the revolutionary change in the political order that looks set to happen in Scotland.
Election 2015 Across the UK
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Right, that's probably what everyone's expecting and what the polls are pointing towards. Expect to hear a lot of the "M-word" – mandate – from Friday morning and for the next few weeks. Based on this scenario, the Conservatives are going to think they have it in the bag because they'll be the largest party - but they won't, the maths wouldn't be in their favour.
Discounting Sinn Fein (who don't take their Westminster seats) and the Speaker (who's independent) a working majority in the House of Commons requires at least 323 MPs. A comfortable working majority (to limit the threat from backbench rebellions and defections etc.) probably needs at least 345 MPs. To put things in perspective, the previous Conservative-Lib Dem coalition had 363 MPs upon formation.
Even with Lib Dems support the Conservatives could still fall short (305-320 seats). I honestly doubt either party would want to work as a minority government because it swipes any controversial reforms (like further welfare cuts) off the table. The SNP, Plaid, Greens etc. have ruled out working with the Conservatives so their votes are off the table too.
That leaves the DUP and UKIP (predicted 13-15 seats between them). The Lib Dems are unlikely to want to work with either of them in a formal coalition, or even on a confidence and supply basis, as the DUP are UKIP with a Norn Iron accent and a penchant for slow marching, homophobia and Biblical literalism. A Con-DUP-UKIP coalition/agreement might only reach 293-305 seats, so that's out too.
It's almost guaranteed that a Conservative Queen's Speech (date set for 27th May) would be voted down, and the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 gives Labour 14 days to form a government and secure a majority of votes in the House of Commons.
The options open to Labour under these predicted figures are more varied. The SDLP take the Labour whip anyway, so that's an automatic 3 extra MPs. The SNP and Plaid Cymru are a single Westminster group so could have a combined 44-49 MPs under this prediction (potentially more). Add the Lib Dems and Greens and it takes Labour's potential bloc support to 339-363 MPs - more than enough to hold the confidence of the chamber.
But that process is going to be painful for Labour, with competing interests trying to get their slice of pork; the big winner possibly being the SNP and Scotland. The Lib Dems could probably get a proportional voting system out of Labour too.
I don't think the SNP will do as well as many predict simply because of the number of stupendous majorities they have to overturn, and I'd expect unionist tactical voting en-masse in some seats. Despite that, they'll certainly do better than they ever have previously, probably taking at least 60% of Scotland's seats.
The irony of the Labour-SDLP arrangement aside - the SDLP support Irish reunification so "want to break up the Union" (albeit not as vociferously as Sinn Fein or as convincingly as the SNP) - if Ed Miliband is going to be pigheaded and rule out any sort of deal with nationalists, he'll have no choice but to lose a vote of confidence and trigger a re-run of the election ASAP – probably as early as the end of June.
That threat of a second election traps Labour in a bind. I suspect the Conservatives would be happy with a re-run because they're the only party who can realistically drum up the financial resources needed to fight a snap election, similarly the SNP because they've become a grassroots phenomenon.
Labour will do everything to avoid it, and if they want to play brinkmanship, they can try and call the nationalist's bluff and dare them to vote down a Queen's Speech/Budget, hoping nationalist dislike and mistrust of the Tories outweighs their dislike and mistrust of Labour.
If you want an even more radical prediction, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that we could see the formation of a temporary German-style grand coalition to pass an emergency budget "due to the unprecedented constitutional crisis etc.", as well as undo some unpopular Tory-Lib Dem policies like the bedroom tax without either party losing face.
The SNP's leader in Westminster (possibly Alex Salmond) could then end up Leader of the Opposition. We'll probably go to the polls following a repeal of the Fixed Terms Parliament Act and/or after an EU in-out referendum - which could also see Scotland make an exit from the union, because I'd expect public opinion to swing massively in favour of independence under such circumstances.
It's not as if they're being made welcome at the moment, is it?
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