Dic Siôn Dafydd?

Traitor? Following his conscience? Legitimately disgruntled?
(Pic : Wales Online)

The timing's a bit of a shock, but the news isn't. This was going to be a more jocular post, but that's been shunted as there's only one story today and that's Dafydd Elis-Thomas' announcement last night that he's left Plaid Cymru and will sit out the rest of the term as an Independent AM.

More from National Left and Blog Menai – though I suspect there'll be more reaction as the hours and days go by.

This has been coming for a while – Syniadau called this years ago, it should be said (and if he's reading this, I'm picturing him having a wry grin at the moment) - and although no reasons for his resignation have been given, he's had a number of run ins with the party leadership.

On Wales Online he says the decision was because he could speak more freely and because he believes Plaid aren't being constructive enough with the Labour Welsh Government. The former stands up as a reason IMO, the latter not so much.

In 2015 he came perilously close to being de-selected as Dwyfor Meirionnydd candidate following criticism of Leanne Wood's comments about UKIP, as well as general unease about some campaigns and policies; he's long been a bit of a "wet" nationalist and has fluttered his eyes at Labour more than once.

There was a reported agreement in place that enabled Dafydd to stand again in May, but with a "gagging order" (for want of a better description) on what statements on policy he could make, which had to be run by the local branch.

Dafydd's a pompous grandee who should've been put out to pasture years ago, but he's also one of the most intelligent, politically-experienced parliamentarians in the Assembly who perhaps sees himself as a cross-benching guardian of devolution and (particularly when he was Llywydd) maybe even an honorary president.

That's why I suggested back in May that he should've been made an internal "Devil's Advocate" within the Plaid Cymru Assembly group, because if a party has an awkward member with those levels of experience, it's far better for them to use it inside the tent pissing out instead of outside the tent pissing in. I warned Plaid more than once.

Plaid Cymru are, quite understandably, furious as this comes just a week before their annual conference, and following their compact agreement with Labour which enables them to influence policy without a formal coalition (which is, I suspect, one of the reasons for Dafydd's resignation).

Plaid are calling for a by-election in Dwyfor Meirionnydd to be held "as soon as possible" - though there's absolutely nothing constitutionally that can be done to force a by-election other than appealing to Dafydd's ego in the hope that he will "seek a mandate from the electorate"....when the guy's also an unelected Lord.

This could also have wider political implications. As far as I know, Plaid Cymru remain the official opposition in the Assembly by virtue of the 2016 result, but in terms of numbers that's no longer the case as they have the same number of seats as the Tories.

With the chaos in the UKIP Assembly group (and party as a whole), it's not beyond the realms of possibility that Nathan Gill AM's (Ind, North Wales) dissatisfaction with UKIP could see himself (or another UKIP AM) defect to the Conservatives in the short to medium term; though after this news I fully expect the Tories to start courting Nathan in earnest and if they had an ounce of common sense they would do so.

Normally this would also affect committee memberships and party apportionment of chairs, but since the introduction of "elections" for committee chairs (I say "elections" as many were appointed unopposed) that might not be the case. However, the "Independent group" may now be entitled to a committee chair, and if so it would probably have to come from Plaid – which could potentially cost one of Dafydd's former party comrades £13,000 a year in salary top-ups.

As an Independent, Dafydd may now have – in some circumstances – a casting vote, so he's in a very powerful position, can say whatever he wants and vote however he wants. As he's shown sympathy with Labour policy positions in the past, he could well act as their 30^th AM – though he's had the grace not to defect directly to them.

Nonetheless, even as a representative of a safe seat he was elected in May using Plaid Cymru's resources, staff and time. However, I don't think he would've made this decision unless he was sure he would have some backing behind the scenes.

There will, naturally, be questions about Plaid itself. If he was such a problem within Plaid he should've been deselected in 2015. This may also be a sign of poor delegation of responsibilities, a lack of effective communication and weak personnel management, as much as it is an individual falling out with their party and perhaps showing weaknesses in their own character. I'll say it again: groupthink.

Even if I've agreed with Dafydd's position and criticisms of Plaid on occasion, I have no time for turncoats and I value loyalty; every Plaid AM and member has a right to be angry about this and I invite you all to let off some steam in the comments section if you wish.

In my opinion, the only honourable way for a politician to "cross the floor" is from a party to an Independent because they were elected on a particular party mandate, and Independents don't have one. In fairness both Dafydd and Nathan Gill have done that.

I can sort of understand why he thinks this is the right thing to do for himself and, as said, most observers will have seen it coming eventually, if not this soon into the term. Whether this is morally right (particularly with regard seeking a mandate through a by-election) is up for debate.

If anyone thinks this is a sign of the Assembly becoming a bigger and better parliament, I respectfully disagree. Based on what I've seen so far this term, things have gone backwards in a big way.