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| (Pic : Reuters via The Guardian) |
First thing's first - I
can rip my crap predictions up. Predicting is a mug's game as the
polling companies are finding out to their cost. As has been said
elsewhere, it's the most surprising result in a UK election since
1992, even 1945.
I'm going to go into more detail on what these results mean for the Welsh parties in a post-mortem early next week. For today I'll stick to general comments on the results.
When Tory Eyes are Smiling
I'm going to go into more detail on what these results mean for the Welsh parties in a post-mortem early next week. For today I'll stick to general comments on the results.
When Tory Eyes are Smiling
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Clearly, the Conservatives and the SNP
are the only parties that have reason to smile today.
The Conservatives have produced their best performance in Wales since 1983. They managed to hold Cardiff North with an increased majority – a stunning result - then they added Vale of Clwyd and Gower to that (albeit by the slimmest of margins). Next week's First Minister's Questions promises to be lively.
Although they're still by far the largest party, Labour in Wales finish the night with fewer seats than they started with - which I doubt anyone was expecting – and reportedly with their second lowest share of the Welsh vote since 1918. They were very keen to conflate Westminster issues with the Assembly in 2011, now the opposite has happened and I suspect they've been punished for it, flopping hard in Cardiff North and Arfon.
This is an existential crisis for the Lib Dems. They'll be rightly pleased to hold Ceredigion, but they've had an absolutely disastrous night elsewhere to the point of becoming an endangered species. It'll cost them in manpower first of all because they've lost some influential thinkers and personalities. Secondly, the number of lost deposits (over 300) will cost candidates and the party financially. That's a Natural Law Party level of performance. They can't take anything from this at all and have been firmly put in their place.
What of Plaid Cymru? They kept their 3 seats – which they perhaps thought were at risk last year. Despite Leanne Wood being given the highest profile of any Plaid leader in the party's history that hasn't translated into progress (though in a few seats they increased their share of the vote significantly in percentage terms).
Yes, they went painfully close on Ynys Môn and increased their majorities in Arfon and Carms. E & Dinefwr; but their share of the vote fell in Llanelli and Ceredigion (slightly) and you can argue they're no longer a serious player in Aberconwy. Not a disaster by any means, but nothing to get excited about. Far from being a Judas, Syniadau was telling a Cassandra truth earlier this week. It requires close examination or they might be in trouble next year.
UKIP came third in Wales on vote share – about 2% ahead of Plaid Cymru – though, as expected, that hasn't translated into seats. They effectively handed the Tories the election by taking away Labour votes, and that's noticeable in Wales as much as England. They now have a list of second and third places to build upon and, far from Plaid being the last alternative to Labour in the Valleys, that space could end up occupied by UKIP in some seats.
Electoral reform will now be very high up the list of policy priorities for UKIP. Taking nearly 4million votes across the UK and ending with 1 seat is hardly an endorsement for first past the post - regardless of your views on UKIP themselves - and it's reminiscent of the SDP-Liberal Alliance performance in 1983.
The Greens, as expected, didn't do anything in Wales. As far as I can tell they lost all but three of their (35) deposits. I suppose they were trying to put out the feelers and see what percentage of the vote they can get, but this should be telling them that, like UKIP, standing in constituencies isn't going to work for them under the present voting system. A "progressive alliance" between Plaid and the Greens wouldn't have done anything either – even in Ceredigion.
What happens now?
The Conservatives have produced their best performance in Wales since 1983. They managed to hold Cardiff North with an increased majority – a stunning result - then they added Vale of Clwyd and Gower to that (albeit by the slimmest of margins). Next week's First Minister's Questions promises to be lively.
Although they're still by far the largest party, Labour in Wales finish the night with fewer seats than they started with - which I doubt anyone was expecting – and reportedly with their second lowest share of the Welsh vote since 1918. They were very keen to conflate Westminster issues with the Assembly in 2011, now the opposite has happened and I suspect they've been punished for it, flopping hard in Cardiff North and Arfon.
This is an existential crisis for the Lib Dems. They'll be rightly pleased to hold Ceredigion, but they've had an absolutely disastrous night elsewhere to the point of becoming an endangered species. It'll cost them in manpower first of all because they've lost some influential thinkers and personalities. Secondly, the number of lost deposits (over 300) will cost candidates and the party financially. That's a Natural Law Party level of performance. They can't take anything from this at all and have been firmly put in their place.
What of Plaid Cymru? They kept their 3 seats – which they perhaps thought were at risk last year. Despite Leanne Wood being given the highest profile of any Plaid leader in the party's history that hasn't translated into progress (though in a few seats they increased their share of the vote significantly in percentage terms).
Yes, they went painfully close on Ynys Môn and increased their majorities in Arfon and Carms. E & Dinefwr; but their share of the vote fell in Llanelli and Ceredigion (slightly) and you can argue they're no longer a serious player in Aberconwy. Not a disaster by any means, but nothing to get excited about. Far from being a Judas, Syniadau was telling a Cassandra truth earlier this week. It requires close examination or they might be in trouble next year.
UKIP came third in Wales on vote share – about 2% ahead of Plaid Cymru – though, as expected, that hasn't translated into seats. They effectively handed the Tories the election by taking away Labour votes, and that's noticeable in Wales as much as England. They now have a list of second and third places to build upon and, far from Plaid being the last alternative to Labour in the Valleys, that space could end up occupied by UKIP in some seats.
Electoral reform will now be very high up the list of policy priorities for UKIP. Taking nearly 4million votes across the UK and ending with 1 seat is hardly an endorsement for first past the post - regardless of your views on UKIP themselves - and it's reminiscent of the SDP-Liberal Alliance performance in 1983.
The Greens, as expected, didn't do anything in Wales. As far as I can tell they lost all but three of their (35) deposits. I suppose they were trying to put out the feelers and see what percentage of the vote they can get, but this should be telling them that, like UKIP, standing in constituencies isn't going to work for them under the present voting system. A "progressive alliance" between Plaid and the Greens wouldn't have done anything either – even in Ceredigion.
What happens now?
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I was preparing a long
list of the scenarios for a hung parliament, so the result has saved
me some work there.....
We're know what the new UK Government looks like : it looks like David Cameron ruling alone. The results are reminiscent of 1992 with shades of 1983 for Labour.
This is a significant rightward shift in EnglandandWales politics, and also a clear separation between EnglandandWales and Scotland – a "conscious uncoupling" if you want. 49.5% of the electorate voted Conservative or UKIP, that rises to 50.5% when you include the Ulster Unionists and DUP.
Tories are rightfully celebrating now, but as the years grind on things are going to be much less comfortable considering the power backbenchers now wield. It's quite possible they'll look back fondly on the Coalition where there was always someone else in line to take the flak. Technically speaking their majority has been cut and it might become more difficult to pass certain legislation than in the previous term.
There are two major constitutional changes on the horizon which will feature throughout the next five years.
Firstly, a constituency boundary review to equalise and reduce the number of constituencies to 600 – which could see Wales lose 10 MPs and harm Labour further. It was shelved, but is likely to be taken off the shelf again, and could provide the impetus to expand the National Assembly to 80 AMs. Secondly, the promised "In-Out" EU referendum set for 2017.
You would expect Stephen Crabb to remain Welsh Secretary, and despite the poor St David's Agreement he's been a clear improvement on his predecessors.
Hopefully, once leadership issues are sorted out, Labour will do the sensible thing and shunt Owen Smith to the backbenches. A progressive move might even be to get rid of the post of Shadow Welsh Secretary and let Carwyn Jones speak on Welsh issues.
Waving Goodbye to Two AMs
We're know what the new UK Government looks like : it looks like David Cameron ruling alone. The results are reminiscent of 1992 with shades of 1983 for Labour.
This is a significant rightward shift in EnglandandWales politics, and also a clear separation between EnglandandWales and Scotland – a "conscious uncoupling" if you want. 49.5% of the electorate voted Conservative or UKIP, that rises to 50.5% when you include the Ulster Unionists and DUP.
Tories are rightfully celebrating now, but as the years grind on things are going to be much less comfortable considering the power backbenchers now wield. It's quite possible they'll look back fondly on the Coalition where there was always someone else in line to take the flak. Technically speaking their majority has been cut and it might become more difficult to pass certain legislation than in the previous term.
There are two major constitutional changes on the horizon which will feature throughout the next five years.
Firstly, a constituency boundary review to equalise and reduce the number of constituencies to 600 – which could see Wales lose 10 MPs and harm Labour further. It was shelved, but is likely to be taken off the shelf again, and could provide the impetus to expand the National Assembly to 80 AMs. Secondly, the promised "In-Out" EU referendum set for 2017.
You would expect Stephen Crabb to remain Welsh Secretary, and despite the poor St David's Agreement he's been a clear improvement on his predecessors.
Hopefully, once leadership issues are sorted out, Labour will do the sensible thing and shunt Owen Smith to the backbenches. A progressive move might even be to get rid of the post of Shadow Welsh Secretary and let Carwyn Jones speak on Welsh issues.
Waving Goodbye to Two AMs
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| AM to MP But does it imply the Tories don't take the Assembly seriously? |
Edit : There's a good piece on this issue from Penarth a'r Byd entitled "The Kindergarten".
Two (former) Conservative Assembly Members – Byron Davies (South Wales West) and Antoinette Sandbach (North Wales) – have been elected MPs for Gower and Eddisbury respectively.
Byron Davies had his moments, but I wouldn't have him down as one of the better AMs. However, I'm particularly disappointed the Assembly is losing Antoinette Sandbach.
Antoinette was growing on me and was making consistently good contributions from the Tory backbenches. This underlines what I suspect most people believe - the Welsh Conservatives don't take the National Assembly seriously and see it as a stepping stone to a Westminster career.
I don't see anything wrong with barring serving AMs from all parties (there were rumours AMs from other parties were considering a run) standing for Westminster seats. We elect them to serve a full term and do they job they were elected to do. They can either give it 100% focus, or they can piss off. Antoinette and Byron join a growing list of Welsh Conservatives who could've made a real impact in Wales but become non-entities down the M4.
Their Assembly seats pass to whoever was next along on the regional list in 2011 (for the next 10-11 months). For North Wales that's Conwy Council's Cllr. Janet Haworth (Con, Gogarth), and for South Wales West it's set to be their Swansea East candidate, orthopaedic surgeon Altaf Hussain.
Bridgend & Ogmore Results
Two (former) Conservative Assembly Members – Byron Davies (South Wales West) and Antoinette Sandbach (North Wales) – have been elected MPs for Gower and Eddisbury respectively.
Byron Davies had his moments, but I wouldn't have him down as one of the better AMs. However, I'm particularly disappointed the Assembly is losing Antoinette Sandbach.
Antoinette was growing on me and was making consistently good contributions from the Tory backbenches. This underlines what I suspect most people believe - the Welsh Conservatives don't take the National Assembly seriously and see it as a stepping stone to a Westminster career.
I don't see anything wrong with barring serving AMs from all parties (there were rumours AMs from other parties were considering a run) standing for Westminster seats. We elect them to serve a full term and do they job they were elected to do. They can either give it 100% focus, or they can piss off. Antoinette and Byron join a growing list of Welsh Conservatives who could've made a real impact in Wales but become non-entities down the M4.
Their Assembly seats pass to whoever was next along on the regional list in 2011 (for the next 10-11 months). For North Wales that's Conwy Council's Cllr. Janet Haworth (Con, Gogarth), and for South Wales West it's set to be their Swansea East candidate, orthopaedic surgeon Altaf Hussain.
Bridgend & Ogmore Results
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There were no shocks in Bridgend and it lines
up with my own prediction – though the gap between Labour and
Conservatives has narrowed and it could now be considered a marginal
constituency. I suspect everyone expected a UKIP surge anyway, so the
only stand out result is the utter collapse in the Lib Dem vote, who
subsequently lost their deposit. Plaid Cymru will probably be pleased
with fourth place too and one of their better performances here –
though nothing spectacular.
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Again, in Ogmore it's no shock that Huw Irranca-Davies retained his seat, though I am surprised his majority fell. Both the Conservatives and UKIP did better than anticipated, and that could be the impact of Tory voters in Pencoed or well-off families moving to new housing developments in and around Sarn. It was a (fairly) close race for second place, though I suspect Plaid Cymru will be disappointed to have finished fourth despite a modest rise in their vote.
Newcastle By-Election
As "predicted" last week, former Bridgend councillor Christina Rees has been elected MP for Neath. Although she's a rare example of an MP who's held a proper day job, Labour must be scraping the barrel for candidates, because she had an underwhelming record as a councillor.
Anyway, the by-election for the vacant Newcastle seat on Bridgend Council was held yesterday:
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Third time lucky
for Neelo Farr. No shocks either, though the Conservatives polled
quite well, probably reflecting the general picture. There's also no
material change to the composition of Bridgend Council as a result.
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