If you want another reminder of what I'm grading the policies on, you can find out here.
The Economy
 |
| Click to enlarge |
It's common knowledge that the Welsh economy has some significant issues. Some of those problems are hangovers from previous recessions, or in some cases, the Great Depression. Others are how the Welsh Government and private companies relate to one another. There's an awful lot of cynicism and mistrust between both. Although I don't subscribe to the knee-jerk view that Wales is somehow a "Third World" economy, there are problems that need addressing.
All of the parties propose some sort of continuation of business rate relief or some kind of business rate reform. Being the only real (partial) tax power the Assembly has, this is unsurprising.
The Conservatives are pushing hard for private sector growth. A completely sensible course of action. Their pledge to scrap and taper business rates would no doubt be popular, however, UK taxes like VAT, will have a far wider impact on the day-to-day running of business that business rates. A manufacturing strategy is long overdue, but not ground-breaking stuff. Likewise, a business-government partnership. Private sector led skills academies are another good idea in principle, however the previous One Wales government have invested in skills academies before - like the construction academy in Pencoed. Contracting out business support is lazy, if it's public money being used, it has to be in some way public sector led. There's too much of a rose-tinted view of the old WDA. All in all though, not bad at all.
Labour's best pledges relate to rolling out high-speed broadband and improving links between universities and the private sector. Good stuff. However, things begin to break down with their other pledges, a "Jobs Fund" seems a short-term solution to a long-term problem. "Fostering a new relationship between business and social partners" as well as "creating an entrepreneurial society" reeks of policy wonk. I would've expected better, clearly spelled out pledges from Labour this time around.
The Lib Dems leading economic pledge are £2000 grants for companies to train unemployed youngsters. Like Labour's Jobs Fund, it's short term, and isn't very different from what's been tried before. Their really excellent stand-out pledge - and one of the best of the whole lot - is to establish a Welsh Stock Exchange. That isn't a nationalist speaking, it's a sensible way of attracting more private finance into Welsh business. Whether they can get 50 companies or so to sign up to it is another matter. Being a scientist, I especially like their pledge to create a pooled research budget. Aside from their "headline" pledge - which is a bit crap - alongside a token nod to "cutting red tape", the rest of it is actually pretty good.
Plaid probably have the most eye catching pledge regarding the economy in "Build4Wales". I can foresee difficulties in setting up such a company, but it's an imaginative, bordering on radical, solution to raising finance for infrastructure. I'm surprised they beat the Tories to it. A lot of their other pledges are fairly run-of-the-mill, but well thought out, such as creating more apprenticeships and their long-term pledge to improve broadband, mobile phone coverage and wi-fi coverage. That seems to be something of a pet project of Ieuan Wyn Jones, but it is good. All in all it's a very good set of proposals but "Build4Wales" stands head and shoulders above the rest.
To conclude, the Conservatives and Plaid both seem to have the right mix of proposals to really improve the Welsh economy, though the Lib Dems proposal for a Welsh Stock Exchange should be taken seriously as well. Labour haven't really stepped up to the plate this time.
Transport
 |
| Click to enlarge |
It's gratifying that all of the parties are united in wanting to electrify the Welsh rail network, to varying degrees. Labour only commit themselves to "arguing for" London-Swansea, the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Plaid also want the Valley Lines electrified, with Plaid also wanting to investigate electrifying the North Wales Mainline.
The Lib Dems, Labour and Plaid also want some sort of reform to how the railways are run. The Lib Dems preferring to renegotiate the Arriva contract. Plaid, and in a damascene conversion, Labour, prefer a new limited-by-guarantee company to run the railways.
The Conservative transport ideas lack imagination. Their pledge for a North American air link is welcome, as is a link between North Wales and Liverpool. However, issues regarding state aid to non public service air routes, and the layout of track in North East Wales, make these pledges hard to deliver. "Working to improve spending efficiency" in transport projects is simple stuff, however cost-overruns are a fact of life with big transport projects, especially if the terrain is difficult. Freezing the Severn Bridge tolls is low-hanging-fruit however eye-catching it appears. Don't freeze....scrap.
Labour disappoint once more. They focus on glib phrases like "improving integrated transport", but what does that actually mean? Integrated transport has improved greatly under the Assembly, but not far enough. They don't seem to want to commit themselves to anything when it comes to transport other than following the National Transport Plan. The Wales Coastal Path is a great asset, but a transport policy it is not, likewise improving cycling routes - as good as that is.
The Lib Dems are unique in putting a timescale for electrifying the Valley Lines - 2014. Good. Re-regulating bus services is dry-stuff, but would no doubt help rural communities and those communities along "unprofitable" routes. Another good, if dull policy, just as rationalising the transport bodies is. Their silliest pledge is to scrap the North-South air link. It was going so well until then. I know it's deeply unpopular amongst the Lib Dems in their "war on waste", but it's fantastic value for money. It puts Wales' most distant part within an hour of Cardiff for around £1-2million a year. That sort of money wouldn't make any difference to North-South rail service, and would build about 1/2 a mile of new road - which might cut a few milliseconds of the car journey.
Plaid know that devolving Network Rail functions is crucial to getting any real improvement to the railways, this is something the other parties seem to have missed, or buried somewhere in their manifestos. Despite being a "Plaid" brief for the last 4 years, their transport plans - other than those for the railways, which are great - are a little staid. Maintaining concessionary bus fares for example, and "improving the road network in line with the National Transport Plan". Improving infrastructure for electric vehicles is laudable, but the fact the technology isn't there yet for mass use, means it could be a wasted pledge however ambitious it might sound.
Plaid probably have the transport section sewn up. Other than the universal desire to see the railways electrified to varying degrees, none of the parties have come up with anything that stands out - other than the yawn-inducing pledges of freezing bridge tolls and scrapping air links.
Finance
 |
| Click to enlarge |
There's an awful lot of overlapping between the four main parties when it comes to Assembly finance. All the main parties want reforms to how Wales is funded. Obviously, being in government in Westminster would make the Conservatives and Lib Dems the best placed to actually deliver that. Only Labour are opposed to fiscal powers for the Assembly.
The Conservatives focus on enterprise and generating wealth. No surprise there. An "Enterprise Bill" is an interesting concept, but I'm not sure how it would work in practice. Can you really legislate to create wealth? Their audacious pledge to boost Wales' economy to 100% of the UK average per capita stands out, but perhaps for the wrong reasons. I don't expect they will ever, in a thousand years be able to deliver it. It's unrealistic. It would require growth well above and beyond that of the UK as a whole to close the gap significantly. I admire the ambition, but sometimes it's best to set attainable goals, say 85% by 2030. "Armchair auditors". Yawn.
Labour want to run away from any responsibility. Their flat refusal to seek some sort of fiscal power is child-like and lazy. The rest of their fiscal proposals aren't too bad though. A new capital expenditure fund is novel, but not ground breaking, as are increased collaboration in public service delivery and flexible models of investment. They can all work, and be delivered, but will it be enough to make a difference? I'm not convinced.
The Lib Dems "war on waste" continues. It's just done to death that's all. We all dislike government excess and waste, opposing it is a flat, meaningless statement not a policy in itself. Using EU funds more strategically is essential, and I'm pleased the Lib Dems bring it up, but it's not groundbreaking. Publishing details of expenditure over £25,000 would please anoraks who want to know how much the Assembly is spending on printer toner, but again it's flat and pointless. Their best pledge is for tax varying powers in line with Scotland. Finally! The Lib Dems frustrate in the swing from crap policies to ambitious, even great ones.
Plaid, unsurprisingly want Barnett Reform. And the birds go tweet. Wanting a lower corporation tax rate is doable, and would surely be welcomed, but I'm not sure Westminster would agree with that. Pledging to "protect spending" sounds good, but could turn out to be poor in practice. Plaid also seem to be the only party to prominently mention securing a new round of Objective One funding. I don't like our reliance on these funds, hence the "E" grade for innovation. However, given the state of the Welsh economy, it would be welcome help. Community finance is something they share with Labour, however the scale of such schemes might not be enough to take the economy to new heights.
I don't think any party really stands out. I probably have to go for the Conservatives, as they would have the sway in Westminster to see, at least some of their pledges met. I can't help but admire their ambition for where they want the Welsh economy to go in terms of GVA, even if it is a largely pointless exercise.
Tomorrow I look at "Green Wales" - the parties' policies on energy & the environment and rural affairs.
0 comments:
Post a Comment