The Western Mail and Unemployment Hysteria

The Western Mail leads with a typical feel-good story of the "dismay" that Wales is the only nation of the UK that has seen an increase in unemployment up to February this year. It's "surged" upwards by a massive 3,000 to stand as a colossus over our brutalised and crippled third-world economy at 126,000 unemployed, or 8.6%.

Game over. Our economy is destroyed. We might as well give up.

You would think by the hysterical reaction that this was the case. Although it's true that Wales is the only UK nation to have seen unemployment rise, this "news" is a bit of a statistics fiddle.

Unemployment figures Western Mail style (Click to enlarge)

Unemployment data in the UK isn't collected by the ONS on a national basis, but on a nation and region basis. There are, of course, 12 of these in the UK, as compared to the 4 nations. As Wales is both a nation and a UK region it's counted in both instances. England is the only nation of the UK that can "benefit" from this, as bigger falls in one region cancel out large rises in another.

At the moment, unemployment is higher than Wales in 4 regions of the UK . The North East, West Midlands, London and Yorkshire & Humber. Three of these regions saw a rise in unemployment over the same period, with the largest rise in the whole UK being in the North East - up 11,000. Kind of puts Wales's 3,000 rise into perspective, non? Unemployment rose in 6 nations and regions, and Wales' rise was the third smallest, only London and Yorks. & Humber saw smaller rises.

How unemployment statistics are normally presented (Click to enlarge)

Two regions of England also saw large falls. The East and South East of England saw falls of 15,000 and 10,000 over the period respectively, thus cancelling out the rises elsewhere.

Wales should either be referred to in these lists as the ONS produces the data, on a nation and regions basis, or it should be referred to as a nation in its own right (alongside England, Scotland and Northern Ireland), which means including it in lists of the whole European Union if you want a proper, statistically valid assessment of where Wales stands.

How is Wales doing in this international comparison?

The answer is - pretty good.

Wales's unemployment figures in an international context (Click to enlarge)

Not only is unemployment in Wales, at 8.6%, lower than both the EU and Eurozone averages, but it's also lower than the United States (8.9%). Wales is practically slap bang in the middle of the list, with Scotland not too far behind. Not great, but definitely not a cataclysm either when you look at some of the names above us.

The whole of England, with a global megalopolis, a majority of the major population areas, ports, airports and business centres only saw an unemployment fall of 9,000 compared to a fall of 7,000 in Scotland.

Why isn't that news?