If you want to know what I'm grading the policies on, you can find out here.
Health and Social Services
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Normally, health is the key concern in Wales. At this election however, it appears to have taken a back seat to education. All of the parties want some sort of flexibility in the way health services are delivered, and all of them want improvements to cancer services. Labour and the Liberal Democrats have specifically mentioned organ donation opt-outs, but I'm sure all parties back that policy.
The Conservatives are keen to point out that they would ring fence NHS funding, this would leave them open to attack over probable cuts elsewhere. There's nothing pledged that we haven't heard before from the Conservatives, for example reintroducing prescription fees. It's fairly weak stuff all in all.
Labour have played it safe. They've included many easy to deliver, practical but unambitious pledges such as zero tolerance to hospital infections. They also want to introduce stricter ambulance targets. Easier said than done. Poor ambulance response times are as much about geography and topography than any sort of systematic problem. That pledge could come back to bite them.
The Lib Dems seem to be focussing heavily on "waste". Every party wants to cut down on "waste" and although the Lib Dems have put it at the heart of their manifesto, they have no real ideas how they are going to do it, especially as they want to establish an "Office of Health Spending". More bean counters? Their Air Ambulance pledge is a good, if unambitious one, it makes sense that a country as sparsely populated as Wales has a solid air ambulance service. The personal care fund is something new, and I'm sure it could make a difference to many peoples lives, but they are playing with fire with that pledge. "Privatisation via the back door", I can hear the unions chant now. A bit like school vouchers.
Plaid Cymru have a smorgasbord of overlapping pledges with the other parties. Their stand out pledge is that for a "personal health plan" to aid in disease prevention. It's a good idea, but they might need to convince GPs of that. Though they might be able to do this with their pledge to renegotiate NHS contracts. Scrapping the Welsh Ambulance Trust makes sense as well, but I'm not convinced it would improve matters that much. Similarly, it's unclear if Westminster would supersede Plaid's pledge over minimum alcohol pricing. Ring-fencing mental health service funding is laudable, but possibly the wrong strategy.
In conclusion, all of the parties have deliverable policies but none of them are a "clear winner" here. Its steady as she goes stuff.
Education
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As alluded to before, education is the key issue at this election. The poor PISA results have inspired each of the parties to come up with some solid pledges. With the controversy over tuition fees in England, higher education is playing a bigger role than it otherwise would have, which throws up a few interesting policy dilemmas for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in particular.
All of the parties want some sort of school funding reform, with the Lib Dems preferring a targeted approach.
The Conservatives have made the mistake of comparing pencils with England. There's nothing wrong with wanting to close the attainment gap, but there are far more fundamental issues at stake here. Building more schools isn't an answer, it's what Labour and Labour-Plaid have been doing the last decade. The Conservative stand out pledge is the "Middle Phase". It's at this crucial 8-13 year old stage where the academic, the vocational and the disruptive start to appear. A Middle Phase would be a good policy and could help turn things around, but it's a slow burner. Funding schools directly also makes a lot of sense. However, their policy on tuition fees is unlikely to make them any friends. I think the previous One Wales government got the balance right on that one.
Two Labour pledges stand out for me : making teaching a "Masters Level" profession and grading schools. I agree with both, and think they could go some way to turning things around. I don't think it's a bad thing to give schools a better idea of where they are compared to others, it's when it gets to English-style levels of obsession about "choice" and catchment areas that things begin to break down. "More funding for schools" is a hollow promise. I don't think any party can honestly say they can ring-fence anything in the current climate. Sticking by their "freebie" school breakfasts is eye-rolling stuff. The other education pledges alongside it shows they can come up with better than that.
The Lib Dems have made a big deal of the "funding gap between Wales and England", sometimes to their own detriment (as highlighted in more detail here and here). A pupil premium is a decent idea, but isn't it just "throwing money at the problem"? Interestingly they're not following the tuition fees policy of their UK colleagues, but seem to agree with the One Wales approach. If they can make this clearer, it could spare them the wrath of the student voters. Ensuring people can study their first A-Level for free? Wow. Thanks. The juiciest pledge is that to reform the national curriculum. I honestly believe that this is the area that lets Wales down the most, and reforms to it would be a good thing.
One of Plaid Cymru's most ambitious targets is to eliminate illiteracy by 2020. If it would be as cheap as they claim it is (£9 per child, per year), then it's an excellent pledge, and one of the best put forward. I question whether it could be done though. Backing the One Wales approach to tuition fees and increasing attainment in STEM subjects in bread-and-butter stuff - nothing to get too excited about. Zero-tolerance approach to poor teaching is good, and long overdue, but I don't think it beats Labour's Master's Level profession approach. It would certainly drive up standards, I would hope.
All in all, the main parties haven't ripped up the rule book when it comes to education, which is a real shame as it needs doing desperately. There are some good noises from each of the parties, but Plaid's pledge to eliminate illiteracy and shake up teaching standards gives them the edge over Labour in this area.
Tomorrow it's "Working Wales", where I look at the manifesto pledges relating to the economy, transport and Assembly finance.
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