Carwyn's constitutional conundrum

The First Minister has once again gone into some detail on his ideas for
devolution and the impact of the Scottish independence referendum.
(Pic : BBC)

Last week, First Minister Carwyn Jones gave a lecture on devolution and the possible ramifications of the Scottish independence referendum at a conference organised by Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre and UK Changing Union.

A transcript (and video) of the First Minister's lecture is available on Click on Wales.

This isn't the first time he's made his thoughts known on this. However, for those of you who can't be bothered, here's a condensed version :

Silk Commission Part I

• The Welsh Government seeks full implementation of Silk Part I (borrowing powers, devolution of smaller taxes, income tax variation [subject to a referendum]) and are waiting for a formal response from the UK Government, which has been significantly delayed.
• If any legislation is to be passed this Westminster term, then the response will need to be made "this autumn", quipping that he hopes the UK Government don't claim "autumn" stretches to the winter solstice.
• Silk I shows Scotland that devolution is flexible enough so their aspirations can be met within the Union, implying he would be willing to campaign for the Union in Scotland depending on the UK Government's response to Silk.

Post-referendum negotiations

• Regardless of the outcome of the referendum, there would need to be negotiations between the Scottish Government and the rest of the UK. If there's a yes-vote, it would be on the terms of independence; a no-vote would be on "terms of continued membership".
• The constituent nations should have a say in any negotiations in their own right because of different responsibilities for public services.

The future of the Union

• The Union is in need of reform to make devolution "more of an event than a process", ending ad-hoc tinkering with the constitution.
• Reforms should complement each other, possibly leading to a codified (written) constitution.
• There was nothing fundamentally wrong with the two Welsh laws that have been referred to the Supreme Court (Bylaws Bill & Agricultural Sector Bill). Scotland and Northern Ireland haven't been subject to the same levels of scrutiny because they have reserved powers - and that should apply to Wales too.
• There's justification for different devolution settlements (asymmetrical devolution) due to "our different relationships with England", but they should be underpinned with three key principles for devolution across the UK:
• 1. Respect for the devolved legislatures – A constitutionally-guaranteed right for them to exist. No legislature should "have to rely on the goodwill of another legislature for its existence". Only the devolved legislatures should be able to vote themselves out of existence.
• 2. Parity of structure – A reserved powers model for Wales in line with Scotland and Northern Ireland, defining what the National Assembly cannot do instead of what it can. The powers themselves would be dependent on the individual circumstances in each country.
• 3. A presumption in favour of devolution – "Decisions about Wales should be taken in Wales" unless there's a wider UK interest at stake. It should apply to England too. By calling for more devolved powers he "has public opinion on his side".
• "Cross border issues" aren't a reason to hold back devolution due to the track record of "sensible management arrangements for such issues....and goodwill and good sense on both sides."
• The English shouldn't be lectured on devolution, but he looks forward to the UK Government's response to the the McKay Commission.

What Carwyn said makes some sense. I think he got the key principles of devolution right and that should also be codified in a written constitution, agreed between the UK's legislatures following any negotiations after a no-vote.

The problem with that is the fact the UK constitution isn't set in stone gives it the sort of flexibility it requires in order to be able to function. Changing that for the sake of codifying it could be an administrative nightmare as you have hundreds of years of laws, conventions and statutes to pile through.

There were some other things I'd pick up on too.

Firstly, I don't understand the excitement in Cardiff Bay about Silk I. The the powers are insultingly small time, and a no vote in any future income tax referendum looks tempting because it doesn't go far enough. Silk II – relating to devolved powers - is going to be more interesting (in my opinion).

Secondly, parity of structure should only come with parity of powers. If "cross border issues" shouldn't affect devolution in Carwyn's own words, neither should the "relationship with England."

Asymmetrical devolution doesn't work because it underpins a union of unequals. It could well have played a part in the Supreme Court call-ins because Wales lacks a legal jurisdiction, and an awful lot of things are run on an EnglandandWales basis for the sake of historical convention - like the Agricultural Wages Board.

We'll still be asking, whenever policy outpaces powers, "Why has Scotland/Northern Ireland/Greater London/Isle of Man got powers over X, while Wales only has Y."

Then there's the elephant in the room everyone's keen to ignore : England. It's a well-trodden point, but a union where one member state makes up 85% of the population (and has even greater economic power) isn't a "union", it's a hegemony. Devolution merely prevents the "Celtic fringe" being squashed.

Attempts to address this – like an elected upper chamber with equal representation of the nations – will go down like a lead balloon in Westminster as there's too much vested interest in maintaining the status quo. That's why constitutional changes take forever, or just don't happen full stop at UK level.

The Welsh line of thinking

There are plenty of views on devolution's future, with a  broad
consensus that regardless of the referendum result things
will need to be reformed one way or another.

The First Minister isn't the only person who's had their say. Click on Wales have been mulling over the possible consequences of the independence referendum on Wales on-off since August.

Deputy Llywydd David Melding (Con, South Wales Central) has put a lot of thought into this, writing a book – The Reformed Union – outlining his ideas for a federal United Kingdom, which was serialised over the past year. He's said too much on it for me to go into any detail now, but in his latest piece he argues that the UK has to adopt the "bilingual nationalism" (Welsh & British) that works in Wales.

His problem – which he acknowledges to be fair - is that the majority of people in Wales reject British national identity, whether they're political unionists or not. That doesn't mean the Union is in any danger, but maybe "the ties that bind" aren't as strong as unionists like to think (and the opposite case for nationalists too).

Welsh Lib Dem leader, Kirsty Williams, talks up the Silk I proposals, arguing that regional governments could be better placed to deliver on economic development than central governments (if the right economic levers are devolved), citing a report from Michael Heseltine. She doesn't elaborate on what levers though.

Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood, argued that regardless of the outcome of the independence referendum, the relationships between the UK's constituent nations would change. She agrees with  the First Minister about Wales having a say in any post-referendum negotiations, but expands that to the "British Isles" (presumably including the Republic of Ireland and Crown Dependencies) and proposes something modelled on the Nordic Council (which has both sovereign and non-sovereign members) with high-level co-operation in areas of mutual interest.

That might - on the surface - appear to be a rejection of independence. I don't think it is. It's pretty clever, perhaps necessary, as it would lock the "social union" in as a permanent feature, all former UK nations retaining links that wouldn't disappear regardless of the constitution future of those nations.

Wales : A Mouse in the Room

Despite the desire for Wales to play a role in post-referendum
negotiations, are we still on the fringes of this debate?
(Pic : The Scotsman)

People think there are two strands to Welsh Labour opinion on devolution - for or against - but there are probably at least three.

The first follow Carwyn's lead : more powers for Wales up to a certain point and on the Welsh Government's terms. I'd suspect most, if not all, Labour AMs follow this tract or the First Minister wouldn't be saying the things he's been saying.

The second group are "reluctant converts" to devolution and could be persuaded either way. I suspect a chunk of Welsh Labour's grassroots and supporters would fall into this category (as long as Labour are in power in Cardiff).

The third are ideological unionists who are sceptical about further devolution regardless of what official policy is, or because they aren't impressed with performances so far. Carwyn's problem is that most of Labour's Welsh MPs have historically fallen into this category, and he desperately needs someone in Westminster Labour to make his case there.

That's because the problem any Welsh politician has when mulling over the constitution is that the only politicians more anonymous than them at UK level are the Northern Irish Assembly (unless it involves The Troubles legacy in some way) and Cornish nationalists.

Nobody who can set Carwyn's or David Melding's plans in motion cares what they think. The most they'll get is a patronising pat on the head that any proposals they come up with would be taken under advisement.

Westminster listens to Alex Salmond because he's a threat to the status quo and known UK-wide (for better or for worse). They might even pay more attention to ministers and shadow ministers with Welsh responsibilities. However, those are junior roles at Westminster, while ministers with those briefs have hardly rung the endorsements for further devolution or federalism (even if the likes of David Jones, Peter Hain and Cheryl Gillan are/were walking adverts for independence).

It was telling that Douglas Alexander's recent thoughts on possible no-vote negotiations didn't mention Wales, Northern Ireland or federalism at all – days after Carwyn's lecture - despite the First Minister being only senior Labour personality who's discussed reforms in any detail.

So although the future of the United Kingdom as a nation state will be decided in Scotland for the time being, the aftermath of the likely no-vote will be decided between Holyrood and Westminster too - not the nations.

Wales should by rights have a seat at that negotiating table, but it's probably best the First Minister - and the rest of the "Bay Bubble" - turn their attentions to things they can actually control and influence for now.

It's not their fault, but it's better than the undignified sight of Carwyn, Kirsty, Leanne, David etc. talking to a brick wall.

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Home Truths? See me, please

A language thousands of years old. A language generating arguments
that seem to go on for a thousand years.
It's time to take those arguments to school....
(Pic : BBC Wales)

                    
Earlier this month, an article from "writer, editor and teacher" Evan Harris appeared on the Open Democracy website, flagged up by Inside Out and National Left. Titled "Home Truths", it was an all too familiar discussion about the Welsh language, Welsh language policy and Welsh medium education.

Let's take a closer look, shall we?

His own fluency

"I tried to say ‘I'm in my flat, frying vegetables’ but couldn’t think of the word for vegetables, or flat and the verb ‘to fry’....All my education from age 3 to 16 was in Welsh – I scored top marks in Welsh language and literature exams – but I can no longer speak it."

This strongly implies he had a Welsh-medium (WM) education, though it's never explicitly stated. In the latest WJEC guidelines for GCSE Welsh First Language, "top marks" requires (pdf p17) :

• Rich and fluent language.
• Strong grasp of grammar and syntax.
• Clear and refined self-expression.
• Appropriate phraseology for the task and audience.
• Confident use of a wide vocabulary.

Someone going through WM education from 3-16 will have been taught many – not necessarily all - subjects through the medium of Welsh. That should be enough to develop fluency and retain knowledge of basic nouns and verbs – especially someone getting "top marks".

That's not to dismiss it. Losing a language does happen and it's known as language attrition. However, it's dependent on a combination of proficiency, frequency of use and motivation to retain it.

Therefore, if you want to retain a second language and you're competent at using it (or immersed in it like WM education, Murtagh 2004), odds are you probably will retain it.

The Beaufort-Welsh Government Survey

"I learned my atrophied tongue is not alone; I am part of a trend. A report published by the Welsh Assembly shows only 50% of Welsh speakers aged 16-24 consider themselves fluent. Only a third use it socially."

The report - commissioned on behalf of the Welsh Government, BBC Wales and S4C – found 51% of those 16-24 y.o. Welsh-speakers questioned said they spoke Welsh fluently, with 74% saying they were either fluent or "can speak a fair amount of Welsh" (p21).

There were no differences in older age groups, with figures ranging around the 65% mark for fluency and 80%+ for both fluency and "speak a fair amount". In fact, fluency levels were said to be slightly higher compared to a similar survey from 2005 (p22).

The reasons given for the discrepancy in fluency between young and old include:

• 16-24s were less likely to say they spoke Welsh at home as a child, pointing towards the  expansion of WM education amongst English-speaking households.
• Welsh-speakers are just as likely to carry out activities in English as they are in Welsh, depending on the activity. This points to both "functional bilingualism" and a lack of relevant Welsh-medium activities.
• Younger Welsh-speakers were much more likely to use Welsh via things like Twitter (64% of them did) or Facebook (35%). They're also equally less likely to use traditional media.
• Welsh-speakers in north and Mid & West Wales were significantly more likely (61-65%) to use Welsh socially that those in the south east (19%). Older people are also more likely to use Welsh at work (including a surprising 51% of 25-29s).
• The number of Welsh-speaking households where only Welsh is spoken ranges from between 22-37% depending on where you are in the country, while significantly more homes use both Welsh and English.
• 84% of respondents welcomed the opportunity to "do more in Welsh", with the least fluent more enthusiastic (92%) and 16-24s even more so (95%).
• Only 24% of 16-24s said they were comfortable using Welsh instead of English, compared to 43% of over 60s.

Across all age groups, only 22-28% of respondents believed Welsh language culture "seemed irrelevant at times", but 16-24s were more likely to say yes. That's outnumbered by those who want to do more in Welsh.

So, the nub of the reason behind a lack of perceived fluency are lack of confidence and lack of opportunities to use Welsh - not that they don't want to use it. Compounding the survey's findings, there's evidence that lack of confidence means people underestimate their proficiency in a language (MacIntyre, Noels, Clement 1997).

There's clear enthusiasm there, but disappointment at the lack of opportunities to use Welsh socially. That's what concerned the Welsh Government in their own words, and no doubts impacts people's perceptions of their own fluency in the long run, as well as perceptions of the language's relevance in daily life.

Attitudes towards the Welsh language

One of Evan's claims that does stand up is that Welsh-speaking
ability is linked to a greater sense of identity and belonging.
However, when it comes to policy he gets it spectacularly wrong.
(Pic : Click on Wales)

From the same report, respondents felt the Welsh language:

• Enhances a sense of personal identity and a sense of achievement at being able to speak Welsh.
• Would improve their children's employment prospects and secure the Welsh language's survival.
• Was necessary in areas where Welsh was heard on the street, and saw the language as "something to share" with incomers. It ties people to a community giving them a sense of belonging.
• Enhances links with Welsh arts and culture.

I'm in no doubt that Welsh-speakers are more likely to turnout and support further powers for the National Assembly – as in the 2011 referendum (Aberystwyth University study) - and perhaps more likely to support independence. A correlation is noticeable in other surveys, but never been that significant to make a difference.

The Swansea University presentation he links to (ppt), and more importantly the paper, concludes that with regard Welsh language policy "the intrinsic ideology predominates" (Welsh is valued as an independent entity) rather than what Evan claims throughout are instrumental concerns (Welsh is used as a means to another, hinted nationalist, end).

The Welsh language is, as the author says, perhaps "stoked by aspirations to stronger cultural, historical and personal identity" but that's amongst Welsh-speakers alone, and there's no evidence of a negative impact on non-Welsh speakers in terms of their own identity, or it being dependent on social class.

In fact, the Swansea University study dismisses the idea that Welsh language policy (rather than the language itself) is motivated by identity.

It even says that although there may be negative fall-out from pursing intrinsic policies - as with any form of positive discrimination to protect minority groups - any "discriminatory effect" on non-Welsh speakers is minimal, perhaps amounting to as little as 1% in a scenario relating to charity funding - coming from Welsh Government officials themselves!

The "Welsh Class"

Are wires crossed as to why  "the crachach" are
socio-economically advantaged?
(Pic : peterfinch.co.uk)

As he puts it (via Ralph Fevre et al) :

"....a small middle-class status group, socio-economically advantaged and is concerned with the honour and prestige of its language and culture. It is the community at the heart of Welsh nationalism, and has succeeded in normalising the aspiration to belong to an amorphous national community whilst remaining aloof as the arbiter of its high culture.

"....Welsh language education does not, and perhaps will not, give students access to the benefits the Welsh Class enjoys."

In the local vernacular they're known as "the crachach" or "The Taffia". I define the term as meaning "well-connected snobs" regardless of whether they're English-speaking or Welsh-speaking. Other people have their own definitions.

They exist in folk memory, but are they in an advantaged/privileged position? What defines a "socio-economic advantaged class"? From the top of my head (and not a conclusive list) :

• Access to better public services than the majority of the population enjoy.
• Over-representation in public life, top universities, land ownership and at the top of business.
• Appointment to high office by patronage, connections and inheritance.
• Social conditioning that they be treated not only with respect, but reverence.
• Avoiding unpleasant social obligations (like military service, fines, paying certain taxes).

It's hard to deny it happens in Wales. However, membership of an advantaged class is dependent on exclusive "means of entry" that are beyond the reach of an ordinary citizen, usually coming down to blood, connections or capital.

The only perceived advantage a member of a "Welsh Class"  has - on the same terms he describes it as being - compared to the stereotyped British upper middle class is an ability to speak Welsh, which isn't in itself an exclusive means of entry as absolutely anyone can acquire it.

Any "Welsh Class" probably exists for the same reasons as the British upper middle class – blood, connections and capital. Speaking Welsh or being cultured wouldn't be a means of entry into this "elite" by itself, you need those other things. They also need palpable advantage. The "benefits of the Welsh Class" haven't been outlined. What are they? What do they actually get from it?

It resembles a furtive fallacy, tying seemingly related factors together (such as the existence of a Welsh-speaking upper middle class, and that Welsh-speakers might be more predispositioned to support further devolution) as evidence that supports an exaggerated non sequitur (a closed-off, high-society elite devoted to the cause of Welsh nationalism).

The author contradicts their claims by suggesting throughout there are few advantages/incentives to being bilingual, despite the existence of an elite who would need to keep their numbers and influence up in order to maintain said advantage.

A claim that expansion of WM education is linked to a nationalist plot is a political point and they have a right to say it, but it's a bit McCarthyite if there's little evidence of a significant and substantial advantage over non-Welsh speakers of the same social status.

An advantaged class that can't even use their "funny handshake" – an ability to speak Welsh - to buy their groceries doesn't sound too advantaged either.

The track record of Welsh medium education

Criticism of stagnant Welsh education standards holds up, I don't dispute it. I've touched on it enough down the years, as have others.

The thrust of the argument here though is a claim that WM schools perform no better than EM schools when taking into account deprivation – measured as pupils entitled to free school meals.

Borrowing Syniadau's example from last year and on the same basis (I hope he doesn't mind), here are the latest performance figures bench marked by medium and free school meals from 2011-12. The figures for 2012-13 are due for release on September 26^th.

Performance by medium and free school meal entitlement 2011-12
(Click to enlarge)

Red indicates the poorer of the two performances, green the better, white the same.

Compared to last year, EM schools where 15-20% of pupils are entitled to free school meals outperformed WM schools, which is good news because they've closed the gap and children are receiving a better education because of that. WM schools have seen improvements at the 10-15% level.

Overall, as you'll see in the right-hand column, WM schools still out-perform EM schools across the board. WM pupils are, on average, more likely to get a collection of higher grade GCSEs - as evidenced by the higher average wider points score - and more likely to get at least 5 A*-Cs at GCSE, including English or Welsh, Maths & Science (core subject indicator).

This is likely due to a lack of large numbers of free school meal pupils, who according to the ONS/Welsh Government (pdf) had a 71 point average wider points score handicap in 2012 compared to other pupils, while EM pupils had a 60 point handicap compared to WM pupils.

They're heavily-clustered in former coalfield local authorities and inner-cities (based on where the majority of deprived WIMD areas are), where WM education has never gained a foothold and where there are higher numbers of low income households entitled to free school meals – numbers which significantly outstrip poor areas of Y Fro.

One way you can make a like-for-like comparison is by using the ONS method to determine the figures in the right hand column, having eliminating EM pupils in the top two free school meal bands.

You do that by working out the number of EM pupils in each of the first three bands who met the respective thresholds (or a cumulative points total), dividing it by the total number of pupils in the first three columns, rounding it to the nearest whole number and comparing them to the WM figures.

Relative performance by medium, adjusted to take FSM
entitlement into account 2011-12
(Click to enlarge)

When you do, performances of EM and WM schools are near enough identical, with WM schools maintaining the slimmest of advantages. However, average and capped points scores still remain higher in WM schools.

Do WM schools perform better than EM schools, even when taking into account deprivation? - Yes.

Next, there's the claim the Welsh language survives :

"....because of coercion and punishment in schools, verbal aggression, humiliation, sanctions....For some in my school, speaking English was a defiant act, an assertion of an identity independent of prescribed nationalism; for most it was just more functional."

Many children and teenagers are obstreperous, attention-seeking, like to establish their individualism and don't do as their told - regardless of the language they're being taught in. They usually grow out of it by their mid-20s.

I imagine using Welsh whenever possible in a Welsh medium school will be high up the list of rules. Breaking school rules - regardless of medium - results in shouty teachers and punishments.

Welsh-speaking ability and employment

In the private sector, Welsh-speaking requirements seems mostly dependent
on the seniority of the post in addition to possessing other underlying
skills and experience.
(Pic : learnwelshinmidwales.org)

The paper the author cites says bilinguals earn on average between 9-11% more per hour (p8). It's unclear if that means they're underpaid relative to their other skills, but the paper suggests this was because of, "employers taking advantage of the relative immobility of bilingual workers, due to the value of living where the minority language can be spoken." So, Welsh is useful if you live and work in Wales. Glad that's cleared up.

It's suggested that it could be down to discrimination against Welsh-speakers in an Anglophone working environment as much as bilingualism not translating into "productive skills". (p18) Though there's no firm evidence of either.

According to a Welsh language skills report from 2005, only 9% of private companies reported a specific requirement for Welsh-speakers, with the highest percentage in the media (18%) and the lowest in the service sector (5%).

Despite this, 29% of businesses said customers preferred being offered the choice of being served in either language. A separate survey hints demand could be higher. Whether private companies offer Welsh language services or not is down to them unless required by law (i.e utilities companies).

Employers who had higher Welsh-speaking requirements either worked entirely in Welsh, mostly in Welsh or in both equally. This suggests Welsh-speaking ability is advantageous – possibly essential - in parts of Wales where business might be routinely conducted in Welsh.

In terms of the sorts of private sector jobs (Table 6), professional and managerial roles (Categories A & B) required the highest levels of Welsh-speaking ability compared to routine jobs (Category D).

This suggests having knowledge of Welsh is potentially financially advantageous, as it seems those jobs requiring a greater ability to speak Welsh generally pay higher salaries.

Where Welsh speakers were employed in 2012 by occupation.
(Click to enlarge)

More recent figures from 2012 (p86-87) also show Welsh-speaking skills spike amongst skilled trades, personal services and professionals. So it hasn't changed much in all that time and seems pretty broad in terms of social class. Skilled trades and personal services aren't normally considered jobs for the socio-economic "elite".

Suggesting (for professionals) that it's down to WM education is an easy assumption, but perhaps a lazy one. If WM education disappeared overnight, the children won't. They'll still need schools and they'll still need teachers. So the number of Welsh-speaking teachers, probably the number of teachers overall, would near enough remain the same.

The paper (p9) suggests employment is rarely based on Welsh-speaking ability alone, but because "bilinguals have, on average, higher levels of those characteristics that are rewarded in the labour market, including education and experience."

It's said, for example, that 52% of those who understand spoken Welsh have a degree compared to 37% of monolinguals (p16). However, when it comes to speaking, reading and writing Welsh, that advantage disappears, presumably as there are fewer of them in the first place.


The author says Welsh-speakers are advantaged due to government initiatives and the existence of a "Welsh Class", yet (paradoxically) simultaneously disadvantaged by possessing a skill that "isn't beneficial" - which is definitely not the case if such roles are created by statute (as he says) and Welsh-speaking skills are seen as desirable for certain high-paying jobs.

Setting the Welsh language up to fail either way is a self-refuting idea.

Evidence of better employability and earning potential amongst Welsh-speakers in highly-skilled, relatively high-paying jobs in both public and private sectors is there.

The benefits of bilingualism

As we increasingly understand how the brain works, the belief
that bilingualism inhibits learning (regardless of language) has become
outdated and discredited. The consensus now points towards the opposite.
(Pic : Dana Foundation)

A small selection of possible positive effects of bilingualism:

• Improved ability to deal with abstract information. (Bialystok, Shapero, 2005)
• Improved maintenance of cognitive functions in older age. (Gold, Kim et.al 2013)
• Quicker reaction times/attention when recognising words. (Yu, Thierry 2013)
• Delayed onset of Alzheimer's disease symptoms depending on age (Chertkow, Whitehead et.al 2010)
• Larger auditory cortex (Ressel, Pallier et al 2012)

I don't think it implies – as the author did – that "bilingualism makes children more intelligent", but there are clear benefits.

His claim that bilingualism limits vocabularies is nonsense. Also, his claim that there are few benefits for sequential ("taught") over simultaneous ("natural/spoken at home") bilinguals is partially discreditable.

Experiments have shown that both types of bilinguals outperform monoglots in certain tasks. Though between the two groups of bilinguals, simultaneous bilinguals will significantly outperform sequentials. Bilingualism takes gold and silver, and you have to factor in all the other advantages to bilingualism as well.

Next, it's the question of whether being bilingual makes it easier to learn another language. Yes it does, and there've been several studies showing such :

• Bilingual education enhances third language acquisition (Sanz, 2000)
• Bi-literate bilingualism vs mono-literate bilingualism (Schwatz, Geva et. al. 2006)
• Advantages of bilinguals over monolinguals in learning a third language (Abu-Rabia, Sanitsky et.al 2010)

Take up of Modern Foreign Languages (MFL) in WM schools

Though declines in the numbers of modern foreign language qualifications
are worrying, the evidence points to WM schools
"pulling their relative weight"  in terms of take-up.
(Pic : scholastic.co.uk)

The issue of language qualifications in Wales is relevant. Unfortunately, the author poisons the well by suggesting there was a lack of "sufficient provision".

MFLs are a statutory requirement in both EM & WM secondary schools as part of the National Curriculum's Key Stage 3 (p25) and are therefore compulsory for Years 7-9.

At GCSE level (Key Stage 4) in 2011-12 there were almost as many WM entries for French as there were for physics (Table 2.7), and WM entries made up between 11-14% of all MFL GCSE entries.

That matches, even slightly exceeds, Welsh-medium's share of GCSEs sat overall (11% - also Table 2.7) - not counting exams sat exclusively in either Welsh or English (like Welsh First Language & English Literature).

You can therefore say that in 2011-12 WM schools were "pulling their weight" in terms of foreign language qualifications, though things could always be better.

The A*-C pass rate for MFLs like German (77%), French (73%) and Spanish (76%) appears to be good across the board (Table 2.5a). Pupils are also more likely on average to get a good GCSE mark through attending a WM school (Table 2.6).

Whether pupils take up MFL beyond the age of 14 is a matter for individuals, and he's correct to say – based on declines in entries - that any "metalinguistic ability is being squandered".

I'm on record as supporting a compulsory second (or third) language at GCSE. That shouldn't need to be Welsh in EM schools, as - to be frank - some aspects of teaching Welsh as a second language in EM secondaries are a joke, in particular the GCSE Short Course.

Must try harder!

On the surface, Evan's article was a well-reasoned, thought-provoking piece.
Underneath however....

Those who oppose the Welsh language and/or WM education have been waiting for a "smoking gun" to back up their arguments since the Blue Books fell out of favour.

The fact they're still struggling to produce one while WM education continues to expand hints that their arguments – in terms of education at least - are being comprehensively defeated, while wider issues surrounding the Welsh language's future remain in flux.

Compared to some things written about language issues down the years, this was a bit more sophisticated. It's a fair attempt to make the arguments against WM education and Welsh language policy more credible by introducing academic, class consciousness and sociological slants to it. This is - for now - as good as it gets.

Welsh is - if you take the article at face value - "being taken away from salt of the earth folk by the crachach". It's almost a romantically tragic lament at the decline of Welsh minus the grief.

Dismissing the opening paragraph – which really should've set people's alarm bells ringing - it was entertaining enough, with valid points made about the state of education and the Welsh language's role in public life.
Delve a little deeper though and there's not much there. It stumbles into tired arguments, appearing to be a thinly-veiled rant at a "Welsh Class" and nationalists in general, but – to their credit – avoiding clichéd references to Pontcanna and Cymdeithas yr Iaith.

If the author hadn't said they were a teacher, this would've been solid C-grade material. Considering this was written by someone who's supposedly trying to instill concepts like objectivity and reasoning in our children, they flunked it.

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Senedd Watch - August 2013

• Plaid Cymru comfortably held Ynys Môn following the August 1^st Assembly by-election, with Rhun ap Iorwerth taking 58% of the vote off a 42% turn out. Labour finished second with 16%, and UKIP third with 14%.
• Former Education Minister, Leighton Andrews AM (Lab, Rhondda), defended his intervention in English language GCSE marking in August 2012, after a former WJEC acting chair described it as “authoritarian and incompetent”. Leighton Andrews said criticism was “ludicrous”, and that the WJEC board were “hung up on....points of process” without considering “fairness for Welsh pupils”.
• Natural Resources and Food Minister, Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent), confirmed Cardiff's Prosiect Gwyrdd incinerator will receive £100million of Welsh Government funding over 25 years (£4.3million per annum). Anti-incinerator campaigners were said to be “astonished” at the figures, having mounted a legal challenge against the project. It was revealed on August 30th that Welsh local authorities were on course to meet recycling targets, with 52% of waste recycled in the year to March 2013.
• Welsh language commissioner, Meri Huws, published her first annual report. There were 468 complaints, the vast majority relating to public or crown bodies and a quarter relating to private companies. The commissioner also responded to the 2011 census figures, suggesting “strategic and radical” policies to ensure the Welsh language's future.
• Shadow Education Minister, Angela Burns (Con, Carms W. & S. Pembs.), proposed separate vocational and academic streams based on ability from age 14, as part of wider Welsh Conservative proposals to restore elements of the grammar school system. Education Minister Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney) was said to be “bemused”, saying he was “committed to excellent schools for all”.
• The Children & Young People Committee report into Attendance and Behaviour recommended the Welsh Government's proposed truancy fines be dropped, and that more work be done to tackle bullying – cited as a main cause of poor attendance.
• A joint Welsh Government, S4C and BBC study - released at the National Eisteddfod in Denbighshire - reported just 31% of young Welsh speakers used the language in their everyday lives compared to 61% of over-60s. The First Minister said it underlined the need for more Welsh-medium activities for young people.
• A report from the UK Changing Union group revealed young voters (18-35 year olds) were more indifferent towards devolution, and unclear about the National Assembly's responsibilities, compared to older voters.
• A separate poll for the Silk Commission found a majority supported further powers for the Assembly over criminal justice, policing, energy and broadcasting, with a slim majority in favour of devolving welfare. The National Assembly also had a higher approval rating (5.6/10) than Westminster (4.3/10).
• A Vale of Glamorgan Council cabinet member called for a Welsh Government review into how the Football Association of Wales (FAW) runs the sport, after Barry Town United were reinstated to the Welsh League following a High Court ruling that their temporary expulsion was unlawful.
• A second Assembly Bill was referred to the Supreme Court. The Agricultural Sector Bill – passed as emergency legislation in July – was deemed outside of the Assembly's competence by UK Attorney General, Dominic Grieve QC. A hearing has been set for 5^th December 2013.
• The Assembly's Environment and Sustainability report into water services rejected UK Government proposals to increase competition between water companies through extending parts of the Water Bill to cover Wales. The committee said the success of the not-for-dividend business model of Dwr Cymru proved that commercial competition wasn't appropriate.
• The number of top-grade (A* & A) passes at A-Level in Wales fell from 23.6% to 22.9% compared to 2012, and also fell compared to the England, Wales & Northern Ireland average of 26.3%. Welsh Baccalaureate passes, however, rose by 4% on 2012, while girls continue to out-perform boys - except at the highest A* grade.
• The Assembly's Health Committee report into the 2012-13 measles epidemic warned against complacency, with 30,000 children remaining unvaccinated against measles across the country. Concerns were also raised about information sharing between health authorities.
• Local health boards released figures to The Western Mail revealing 13,000 cancelled operations over the last three years, mainly due to bed and staff shortages. Shadow Health Minister Darren Millar (Con, Clwyd West) blamed the Welsh Government for wasting funds. The Welsh Government said operations were routinely cancelled for clinical reasons, but they were "working to reduce the number”.
• The first results from national literacy and numeracy tests for 6-14 year olds highlighted a drop in reading ability between primary and secondary schools. Numeracy performances remained relatively stable across all age groups. NUT Cymru questioned the value of the tests, while Angela Burns AM called for a new range of middle schools for 8-14 year olds.
• The gap in top grade (A* & A) GCSE passes between Wales and England & Northern Ireland narrowed. A*- C pass rates were 65.7% compared to a Wales, England and Northern Ireland average of 68.1%. However, there were sharp falls in A*- C pass rates in science and maths, broadly mirroring similar falls in England and Northern Ireland.
• The Committee for the Scrutiny of the First Minister called for Welsh Government action following hold-ups to the doubling of the Wrexham-Chester railway. Aled Roberts AM (Lib Dem, North Wales) said it was “clear north Wales doesn't receive its fair share of expenditure for capital projects.”
• A row broke out between English Local Government Secretary, Eric Pickles MP, and the Welsh Government over local authorities blocking recording of council meetings. The Welsh Government described it as “obsessive” and a “cheap political attack” against Labour. Despite this, Local Government Minister Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham) later encouraged Welsh local authorities to allow the use of social media and filming at council meetings, describing them as "excellent tools".
• Rare Cancers Foundation research found Welsh patients are four times less likely to receive approval for new cancer treatments than patients in England. The Welsh Government rejected calls for a cancer drugs fund, saying it was neither supported by the medical profession or the public, and that it would “disadvantage patients with serious conditions other than cancer.”

Projects announced in August include : A £15million package for seven medical technology projects, a 20-year strategy for rail development in south east Wales, a £5million 16-bed ward at Tywyn Hospital and a merger between Trinity St David's University and Coleg Sir Gar to create a “radical new institution” serving 25,000 students.

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"Devo-wuh?" Young attitudes towards Welsh devolution

Last week, Changing Union published a short but sweet report authored by Prof. Roger Scully entitled "Attitudes of Young People towards devolution". You can read it in English here (pdf) and Welsh here (pdf).

There's a Click on Wales piece from one of Changing Union's co-ordinators, Lleu Williams, and a post on Cardiff University's Elections in Wales blog from Prof. Scully himself, challenging some of the headlines resulting from this. It's perhaps been overshadowed by the Silk Commission poll - more on that from Syniadau.

The Findings

The report compares data relating to two age groups across a few different surveys : 18-35 year olds ("young voters") and over-35s.

• Both age groups broadly support more powers for the Assembly or the status quo, with the young more likely to support the status quo and older voters further powers.
• Support for both abolishing devolution and independence fell sharply in both age groups since 1997. More over-35s prefer scrapping devolution (~17%) compared to 18-35s (12%).
• A majority of older voters think the Assembly has the most influence over decisions in Wales (55%) compared to the young (41-42%). 20% of young voters "Don't Know", compared to less than 10% of over-35s.
• A majority across both age groups believe the Assembly ought to have the most influence over health, education, policing and criminal justice, with stronger support amongst older voters.
• Similar percentages across both age groups support tax powers for the Assembly (~37%).
• There's greater support for more powers - and significantly greater support for independence - amongst both age groups in Scotland compared to Wales. The percentage of "Don't Knows" with regard constitutional choices is similar in both countries across both age groups.

The Conclusions

The report's obvious one is that there's "lower levels of engagement amongst the young", reflected in "lower rates of voter turnout" and "less certainty" in their views on devolution. We knew that anyway, it's a long-standing problem.

There are other conclusions too. Based on policy influence preferences - and backed by the Silk Commission poll this week - there's strong support for further Assembly powers across the board, falling short of independence, with little appetite to turn back the clock. That hints that the Assembly has "established itself" as an institution.

On the lack of enthusiasm for devolution amongst many young people, The Western Mail's reaction was slightly hysterical. Support for independence is softer amongst the young than you might expect, but clearly there in abundance in the case of further powers.

It makes sobering reading for both devo-abolitionists, and nationalists who support independence like myself. Both groups are significantly out of step with public opinion - but I guess we knew that anyway. Unlike devo-abolitionists though, I think those of us in the latter category can live with a more powerful Assembly. If nationalists play the long game, we'll win.

A lot's been said about "what" and "how" on youth apathy, so I think it's worth turning to the "why". For once, I speak with a little authority as I fall within that "young voter" category.

Getting to know "Generation Y"

To understand why "we" (18-35 year olds) aren't bothering with politics, it's worth understanding what Generation Y - roughly those born between 1980-1999 - are like as a whole.

Vain – We're often dubbed "narcissists" and "entitled". I don't think that's necessarily true, but we are image conscious and individualistic. We think we need to be seen to live a certain lifestyle. We like to brag, and feel smug about making surface-deep "right choices" in clothes, lifestyles, technology etc. In politics, this translates into backing popular and charismatic individuals over parties.

Insecure - Unless you're settled with a decent job or family, the vanity hides an insecurity. We've taken the biggest hits from the recession. We're not going to get the same levels of retirement support as our parents and grandparents. Also, as a whole, we're trying to find a sense of generational purpose, with many living an extended adolescence. We might feel let down by politicians/politics, considering we've been guinea pigs for many of their reforms to schools, universities, housing and the economy - especially from the Thatcher and Blair years.

Mobile – We lack real job security so tend to change employer often. We travel more, and are generally (but not always) more willing to live in rented accommodation for long periods. We still have "roots" as that's a Welsh characteristic, but we don't live by it. We like flexible working, doing things on the move, and we don't sit down to watch the news or read newspapers. Everything is instant, and we're – on the whole - uncertain decision-makers because we're constantly bombarded with information in our jobs and free time.

Tech-savvy – "Nerd" and "geek" are more positive labels than they've been in the past. We live a lot of our lives through the internet, gadgets and mobile phones. It makes us think we're all connected and "social", but it hides a loneliness too. This doesn't mean we're good at science and engineering either, it just means most modern technology is user-friendly. Modern politics isn't.

Time rich, cash poor – One of the reasons I'm doing this blog is because it's free. People my age are rather boring, unlikely to produce any great counter-culture, adopt "retro" trends because we lack originality, all whilst focusing on someone else's idea of style over our own creativity. Politics is seen as highly-focused and intensive, and not something worth bothering with unless you have ambitions of actually becoming a politician. There are plenty of other things we can do with our time.

Politics without ideology – Perhaps by being the first post-Cold War generation we see politics as a series of "issues" and "causes" that need fixing rather than a clash between left and right. People still fighting the Cold War at this age – as I once did – stick out like a sore thumb. We're mainly socially liberal, so don't tolerate "bans" and "restrictions", but more ambiguous on economic policy - perhaps even slightly conservative. If we vote in larger numbers as we get older, we're going to be a politician's nightmare as we'll be impossible to please.

Why might some young voters blank devolution?

You can picture the youth of Wales getting as excited about a referendum
for the National Assembly to vary income taxes by 10p, can't you?
(Pic : salon.com)

We've been let down too – Younger people are as likely to be dissatisfied with how Welsh devolution turned out as older people. Bungs like tuition fee changes, EMAs and apprenticeships will only go so far. We're concerned with bigger issues like health, education (if we want to have children of our own) as well as things like transport and the economy.  We just won't admit it, as we know we won't be listened to - which can be very embarrassing seeing as we're adults.

We didn't vote or campaign for devolution, it's just "there" – Today's 35 year old would've been 19 at the time of the 1997 referendum. Today's 18-24 year olds will barely remember the time before devolution. I'd only just turned 13, and I don't recall if I had an opinion on it. Today's Wales was born from 60s and 70s activism, so younger people won't share a similar "spiritual/emotional connection" to devolution as those who campaigned for or against it. To us, it's a national institution that we grew up with in the background. It's nothing special, sacred or unique. Nor is it an abomination that undermines traditions.

We don't understand it – This shows up in the report as a high percentage of "Don't Knows" on the question of the Assembly's levels of influence and constitutional preferences.

That might be because young people are - like some older folks - unclear on what the Assembly does and what its powers are. Those things are hard to explain to audiences who lack any pre-existing political interest or knowledge. It's still - despite the 2011 referendum - quite technical. The Assembly might not be considered powerful enough to get too interested or involved with, whilst there's also the problem of the Assembly not being "seen" full stop.

It's boring, and any coverage we do get is cynical - Politics is supposed to be boring as that's how mistakes get ironed out. With many distractions, it's hard to get passionate about law-making, committee reports and public service performances.

For example, the Assembly's integrated transport inquiry was excellent and I think I did an OK job of whittling 60-odd pages to under 2,000 words. I received ten times the focus for a non-story about hotels a few weeks later.

Consider yourselves "lucky" I still cover things like laws, policies and committee reports. If I were dependant on maintaining regular high levels of interest, I would've dropped them and concentrated on character assassinations, conspiracy theories and gossip. That's clearly where interest lies, except the problem is that none of that stuff is "politics" nor actually relevant to anything.

We're disenchanted with politics - It's more correct to say young people are "disenchanted" (disappointed with what it is) rather than "disengaged". We do get excited about "single-issue causes" and "grand issues",  just not traditional party and institutional politics. That's probably for the same reasons as older people, or we grew up with such a cloud of cynicism hanging over politics that we just absorbed it as we got older.

The only "grand issue" in Wales is never-ending constitutional masturbation surrounding the Assembly's powers. I've said it several times, but even I don't get excited about that. I consider it tedious, bordering on an insult to our intelligence. We will be back here again and again and again until we have parity with Scotland at least.

We didn't get that in 1997. We didn't get it from the Richard Commission. We didn't get that in 2006 or 2011. You can see that I don't have high hopes for Silk.
It could all be done in 3 years, but we'll be waiting 30.

That's one reason why I would describe myself as "disenchanted". Ask others my age, and you'll probably get hundreds of different reasons.

We're under-represented – This is our own fault for not voting in large numbers, not registering to vote and not standing in elections. However, that's mainly because of disenchantment, lack of interest and seeing it as something for aspiring "career politicians", not ordinary people. I hardly know anybody my age – internet aside - who's a member of a party, movement or an active member of a trade union. Based on Welsh demographics, the Assembly should have at least 9 AMs aged 35 or under. There's one.

What can be done?

 Generation Y's politicians will think of it as a career - not a public service - and will
be thin on the ground. We may as well accept it, as it's better than nothing.
(Pic : British Youth Council)

Not much if I'm completely honest. But there's hope.

It's unscientific, but my Facebook page reach (those who see the posts) hints that the majority (66%) of this blog's readers are – bucking the trend – aged between 18 and 44 (those aged 25-34 the biggest subgroup) with a roughly 55-45 split in favour of men. Page "likes" are similar in terms of demographics, but with an one-sided 80-20 split in favour of men.

I'm not surprised that it's mainly "the boys" who will openly admit to reading/liking this blog, and I suspect 90%+ of the people who leave comments are male too. However, I'm glad women do see/read it as I hope it's seen as relevant to everyone.

I suspect many are political anoraks, activists or party workers in some shape or form. So there is interest amongst young voters, the problem's that they're likely in the "political bubble" anyway.

We have our youth parliamentary organisation – Funky Dragon – and many local councils have youth councils and mayors. That's fine, but I don't think going out and "nagging" young people to be interested in politics and devolution "for their own good" is going to work.
The single biggest fix is more young candidates in "proper government", not farmed off into "yoof parliaments" and student councils. Bridgend, for example, elected at least three councillors aged 35 or under in 2012 : Luke Ellis (Lab, Pyle), Ross Thomas (Lab, Maesteg West) - who's since become Mayor of Maesteg - and Hailey Townsend (Lab, Brackla). So it can be done organically without any positive discrimination.

Of course, those of us interested/involved in politics are going to say it's the most important thing in the world. If politicians and outreach workers are struggling to make it sound relevant and interesting, then the simplest answer is that Welsh politics just isn't relevant and interesting full stop.

Welsh politics is, quite often, painful to follow for its grinding processes and limp outcomes - not the performance of politicians themselves, who I don't have a issue with and who have a tough enough job as it is. They can only work with what they've got and can't perform miracles.

One day, those currently aged 18-35 are going to inherit the country. You better be damned sure we're interested enough to care, or there'll be a vacuum and I dread to think what will fill it.

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Whipperines & Class Clowns

I'm on a "break" of sorts, mainly because there's not much to write about. I still have big posts to come before Assembly returns from recess though.

I'm working on a "little something" for September. I think most reading this will be interested, you'll just have to be patient and hope I don't suffer a mental breakdown in the next few weeks. "Stay tuned" for that - hint, hint.

There's a bit of Assembly-related news from last week, with the Children & Young People's Committee publishing a report into their attendance and behaviour inquiry (pdf).

I would've normally glossed over that, but because of the "lull", I decided to take a closer look and it threw up some interesting evidence and conclusions.

There were 12 recommendations, summarised as :

• The Welsh Government should develop new frameworks and strategies relating to attendance and behaviour, and should investigate bullying's links to poor attendance.
• Improvements to teacher training, with "evidence-based" behaviour management training as part of their ongoing professional development.
• Explore the possibility of delivering services relating to educational welfare and behavioural support at a regional level.
• A rejection of fines for parents of persistent truants, based on evidence presented against that measure which the committee received.

Whipperines : School Attendance

Although the stereotype is of feral youths who don't want to learn,
cited causes of truancy include bullying, home problems and
difficulties with lessons.
(Pic : Daily Post)

If pupils don't go to school regularly, they don't attend lessons, they don't get homework and so they don't learn anything, setting them up for failure.

Absenteeism in schools is described as "stable", with unauthorised absences running at roughly 0.6-1% since 2002-03. Absence rates are used to determine school bandings (My Local School), so rates have improved since banding was introduced.

During the inquiry's focus group, the main reason for unauthorised absence given by pupils themselves were bullying or a general "lack of desire to attend school". Boredom during lessons and difficulties with schoolwork were also cited, along with home life problems like caring for relatives and drugs. They called for more understanding about their individual needs instead of a "one size fits all" policy.

Specific problems with attendance were highlighted during the period between primary and secondary schools (ages 8-14) and it's said that this period is where pupil attainment "follows a downward trajectory".

One thing cited by Estyn as a successful way of reducing absenteeism amongst "difficult-to-reach families" are so-called "first day response" procedures, where schools contact a parent directly on the first day of any absence. The committee decided they want more evidence on the effectiveness of this approach.

There was evidence of a shortage of Education Welfare Officers (aka. whipperines) in Wales, or at the very least a "considerable variation in service between local authorities", hence the suggestion of a regional approach to use EWOs better.

The evidence presented against fixed-penalty notices for truancy introduced by Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda) was brusque.

A school governors representative described the truancy fines proposal as "disastrous", for undermining the "good relationship between staff, parents and pupils." None of the witnesses are said to have supported it, and evidence presented to the committee pointed towards "reward systems" for good attendance rather than punishments.

The fines are set to be introduced from September 1^st and could be between £60-120.

Class Clowns : School Behaviour

Although permanent exclusions are becoming less common,
extreme behaviour is said to be becoming more common amongst
primary-age pupils and those with special needs.
(Pic : educationviews.org)

Good pupil behaviour is essential to ensure a decent learning environment for pupils, and enable teachers to get on with their jobs without having to deal with "distractions".

Pupils themselves agreed that : bullying, being disruptive in class, being disrespectful to staff, smoking and vandalism counted as "bad behaviour". They also agreed that bad behaviour from other pupils prevents them from learning. Suggestions to reduce bad behaviour included more outdoor and "fun" lessons, and more one-on-one time with teachers.

Fortunately, permanent exclusions are said to be decreasing, and currently run at a rate of around 0.7 pupils per 1000. The main reasons for exclusions are said to be assaults against staff or persistent "defiance of rules".

Less fortunately, "extreme behaviour" is said to be increasing in primary schools, with greater prevalence amongst boys and those with special needs (who made up to half of all exclusions in 2010-11).

With regard exclusions procedures themselves, there was worrying evidence that schools were "illegally excluding" pupils by simply telling them to stay away, without officially notifying parents/guardians of the exclusion (or presumably recording it). A 2007 report from the Children's Commissioner said that the practice was "widespread".

There was contradictory evidence regarding ongoing illegal exclusions, with the National Association of Headteachers saying they would be "surprised" if the practice was still happening in 2013. Meanwhile, SNAP Cymru – a children's charity - claimed they had worked on 92 cases of illegal exclusion, including one highlighted case where a pupil with Asperger's Syndrome was asked to take an "early holiday"  during an inspection period.

AMs themselves have come across similar cases through their constituency work, but there was little official evidence of the practice. That's perhaps for obvious reasons - schools want it hushed up, and it's off the official record.

For those who are excluded, or moved to out-of-school Pupil Referral Units (PRUs), Estyn said specialist teaching staff at these institutions were "well trained and confident" about working with troubled pupils. However, there were issues regarding the management of individual pupil's needs. Teaching unions called for a "properly resourced national network" of PRUs.

PRUs based within school sites are said to be too old in terms of facilities. Also, some pupils ending up in on-site PRUs for long periods instead of returning to normal classes.

In terms of the wider issue of education for excluded pupils, education is still compulsory for them, and they're entitled to 25 hours per week, starting within 15 days of exclusion. SNAP Cymru say this simply doesn't happen, and excluded pupils are "lucky to get 5 hours a week"- if that. It's usually then left to parents.

The introduction of trained school counsellors is said to be important, with a "positive impact on attainment, attendance and behaviour" amongst children who've received help.

One other big issue raised was that of parental attitudes towards punishments. There are varying levels of engagement and support, with some parents outright refusing to support any measures taken against their children, or unwilling to accept any wrong-doing. This usually results in lengthy compromises instead.

Conclusions

It's a basic duty of every parent to make sure their child behaves themselves at school and attends regularly. It's disappointing to read that some parents don't accept their little angels might not be the cherubs they think they are, but it's not a surprise unfortunately.

As you can tell by the tone of the language used in the report, this was unusually critical of some aspects of the Welsh Government's approach and policies here.

The headline-grabber was the rejection of truancy fines. It was clearly part of Leighton Andrews' more aggressive approach to driving up standards, but it remains to be seen if that's going to be Huw Lewis' style. With only a few weeks until the fines are set to be introduced and regulations drawn up, time's running out for the Education Minister to pull the plug if he's convinced by this report.

The warning is that several perfectly good things Leighton did during his tenure could end up being overturned if a u-turn here encourages teaching unions to press for more policy reversals.

I believe fines are appropriate with regard persistent truants, but only when all other options have been completely exhausted. I don't like reward schemes, as pupils shouldn't be "bribed" to go to school, as it could teach them that they should expect prizes for doing something they should be doing anyway.

On school behaviour, the "illegal exclusion" issue borders on scandalous. That could be in part because schools have become so wound up about inspections and bandings that they might feel the need to shunt misbehaving or difficult pupils out of sight. It could also be that headteachers and local authorities are just too damned lazy to sort out the core problems themselves. It's one area where the "Third Sector" should perhaps become more involved in if individual schools can't cope.

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Cry 'Haggett', and let slip the blogs of war

                              

I have to apologise first of all. On Monday, I incorrectly described the Ynys Môn by-election as a "contest" and a "two horse race".

It was, in fact, a "curbstomp". If it were a football score, the result would've had to have been given in brackets. There was only one horse, racing against some garden gnomes and cabbages. Rhun ap Iorwerth wins. Fatality.

It's a humiliating result for Welsh Labour, who sent several big guns from Cardiff over the last few weeks - including the First Minister. While Tal Michael is - on paper - as high-calibre a candidate as it gets Labour wise. They were very close to finishing third behind UKIP.

To put the cherry on top, Plaid also held two council seats in Caerphilly by comfortable margins.

Plaid's campaign was intensive and positive, coming across like a cheesy US presidential run and I found parts of it rather amusing (in a good way). Plaid should invest in Factor 50 next time (that's not a Wylfa joke).

Rhun has all the professional credentials to be an excellent successor to Ieuan Wyn Jones. I wish him the best and I'm pleased Plaid have spared us a Labour majority. I suspect I'll be covering many more positive stories involving Rhun from the Senedd over the coming years.

You know where I'm going next because of the blog title. If you've had enough I suggest you stop reading now. I'm posting this at a relatively early time because I want to help draw a line under things, but I'm not doing so without raising some concerns of my own.

Yes, it's time to turn to this week's big talking point on the blogopshere – highlighted by A Change of Personnel, Borthlas, Inside Out, indirectly by Blog Menai, Ifan Morgan Jones & Hogyn o Rachub - though I thought it best not to comment until after the by-election.

Bloggers usually only make the news when we've done something naughty.

I doubt Michael Haggett (MH) of Syniadau is flavour of the month within Plaid at the moment, finding himself up Shipton Creek. The Snitchfinder General grilled his more critical blogs for The Western Mail days before the by-election, drizzling it with the obligatory anonymous sauce.

I guess you're expecting me to join the chorus of outrage against Michael for attempting to undermine a crucial by-election - and the sterling efforts of Plaid activists who travelled from across Wales to campaign for Rhun - which under a slightly different set of circumstances could've played a role in handing Welsh Labour a Senedd majority.

Nah.

Syniadau : The (Nuclear) Free Radical

Far from being a Brutus, Syniadau's Michael Haggett has played Mark
Antony to the Cleopatra of idealised Plaid rules and core principles, ultimately
crushed by the party hierarchy's Octavian quest to win. And what a win it was.
(Pic : bellaviae.com)

I have to be a little bit critical of course, so I'll get that out of the way. I think some of Michael's language and timing was brazen. Even I was taken aback, and any anger from Plaid for that reason - but that reason alone - is justified.

Now that that's over with....

MH had two primary concerns.

Firstly, the issue of Rhun ap Iorwerth's selection. I didn't think there was anything wrong. Any party would jump at the chance for someone well known to run for them, especially journalists as they both walk the walk and talk the talk.

However, Michael had a point on IWJ's decision to resign immediately which changed the dynamic a lot.

I'm presuming that's because Rhun had to declare his intentions immediately - due to his former job - so the Plaid higher-ups thought, "A well known local journalist would like to run for us in a constituency where personality matters a lot. Let's start immediately to catch the other parties off guard! #ymlaen"

In political strategy terms, that's pragmatic, sensible and perfectly legitimate.

The trouble is that Heledd Fychan cancelled her candidacy bid in Arfon just beforehand in order to run in Ynys Môn having been a long-standing member. Meanwhile, usual candidacy rules were suspended under "extraordinary circumstances" (being an impartial BBC journalist) to allow Rhun to stand.

It's that circumventing of usual selection procedures that wound MH up. He believed similar with regard Angharad Mair before, so MH is being consistent about "ringer" candidates, and I don't think this was ever about Rhun himself.

What's done is done, and this was a distraction from the bigger, more important issue of Plaid's energy policies.

MH is vehemently anti-nuclear and it's a blue touchpaper issue for him, having blogged in detail in favour of renewables. Plaid voted its "total opposition to the construction of any new nuclear power stations" in 2011 and MH strictly interprets that to mean none whatsoever.

Interpreting "new" as meaning "new sites" lets Plaid off the hook, as Wylfa B could be interpreted as expansion of an existing station. Plaid can therefore support Wylfa B, whilst appearing to oppose nuclear power in general – a politically dangerous position of trying to be all things to all people.

MH was fine with a position that opposes Wylfa B outright - in line with the agreed Plaid policy motion - but as long as it were to be built (in the absence of devolution of energy) then securing local jobs should be the top priority. Rhun ap Iorwerth said something similar on his campaign site in relation to the jobs.

MH seemed happy with that, but neither Rhun nor anyone else in Plaid were making their position clear on nuclear energy or Wylfa B itself, trying not to draw attention to it.

Then Rhun did – saying he supported it outright – the complete opposite of MH's interpretation of Plaid's own policies.

I can understand why MH would've been angry with that as a grassroots member holding his party to a democratically agreed policy. Add MH's antagonism towards the selection process and you're building up a (somewhat justified) head of steam.Ynys Môn needs jobs and investment, so Plaid are going to do everything they can to support those efforts, the most eye-catching proposals being Wylfa B and the science park.

It's realpolitik. Plaid's job is to win elections as much as pushing their long-term political goals. But those long-term goals - including a coherent energy policy - have to be set in stone otherwise there's no point in having a party, it may as well be a collection of Independents.

Judging the behaviour of some Plaid politicians down the years, that's what they appear to be, dropping core policies whenever they feel like it, as has happened in other parties and even ministers. Michael had enough and saw red.

Plaid are, by some way, the best of a bad bunch. But there've been plenty of examples in the past (and more recently) of : ruthlessness, ambition trumping ability, lack of respect or loyalty for sitting leaders, anonymous passive-aggressive briefings against fellow party members, backbiting and muddled policy development.

For all the sunny logos and smiles, they're no angels.

The internet's double-edged sword

I don't bother politicians or activists directly, demanding retweets or whatever, because I believe they're busy enough without having to babysit me.

Whenever they retweet or repost a blog on social media under their own steam it's always appreciated and flattering. I go all bashful because they've acknowledged my existence and I hope I'm being helpful in some way - but I know not to expect more than that and it's the limit of my influence.

Online support can help publicise party initiatives, explain/promote new policies or promote candidates during internal and external elections etc. All that can be shared on social media to reach as wide an online audience as possible.

The same thing goes for criticism and internal arguments.

However, you won't get any acknowledgement if you're critical, no matter how well-reasoned you are. That's understandable as nobody likes to hear bad things about themselves, but as long as it's about policy, not personality, they should probably note it.

If a politician or activist notes concerns in the street or via e-mail, it probably feels more "real" so it's treated more seriously.

You publish it on the internet, it could be read by hundreds, sometimes thousands, before it even reaches the target - including opponents and journalists.

You would therefore expect parties to want to nip online criticism in the bud ASAP – especially from their own members and prominent bloggers like MH - by addressing concerns directly as they would any other member of the public.

However, whenever MH has been critical of party or policy he's been brushed off, or in the case of the selection process dubbed a pedant for trying to uphold his own party's rules.

Also, I'm sure if someone in Plaid outlined their official nuclear policy on Anglesey to MH, he would've re-published it on Syniadau for people to debate, knowing the party hierarchy were taking his concerns seriously. He probably would've still disagreed, but he might've toned things down.

MH started off neutral, even complimentary towards Rhun when he announced his candidacy. He praised his "ambition for Wales and to stand as a candidate". It was only after his concerns on the nuclear issue were being brushed aside, and as he was leaned on to keep quiet for "undermining the campaign etc.", that his polemic became angrier. You can see it progress in his posts.

Politicians wouldn't dare snub a committed activist, regardless of where they lived or who they are. However, Plaid blanked their highest-profile blog, which has a readership in the thousands.

Bloggers aren't "influential" but can stick the boot in where it hurts – ripping apart policies and airing dirty laundry – made doubly worse when picked up by the press.

Michael presumably did so because he believed policies pushed during the by-election ran contrary to what his party stands for, and what they agreed in good faith with the rank and file membership.

His tone was ill-judged, but the principle was sound. You could even say he was taking a noble stand, exposing – as John Dixon said – major problems with Plaid's energy policies and how they're drawn up.

In some respects, this victory might've cleared things up. There won't be any "civil war" - it's just ended. The pro-nuclear lobby have won.

Because of this campaign, Plaid Cymru can only be considered a pro-nuclear party, and Wylfa B will have cross-party support in the Senedd. Nobody in Plaid - regardless of where they are in Wales, or how they voted in the policy motions - can backtrack on that position now without rendering themselves and the party a laughing stock.

Plaid/Nationalists dominate the online political scene in Wales because they were the first to adopt it as an effective campaign tool.

I consider Syniadau my single biggest influence, and MH's posts have been consistently high-quality and enlightening. Syniadau often acts as an unofficial forum for the Welsh nationalist grassroots and it's where I found many other blogs.

Plaid have taken that online support for granted, perhaps viewing people like Michael, maybe myself and others too, as nothing more than "useful idiots" when we're positive, and as loose cannons if we're even slightly "off message".

No harm was done at all. However, despite winning the by-election comfortably, I think Plaid (perhaps all parties) should re-evaluate how they interact with and treat their grassroots online – not just blogs, but social media - especially as the internet garners increasing influence down the years.

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