What is Wales? - The Higgitt Question revisited

This is in part a response to a response by Adam Higgitt to my original post a few weeks ago and a further expansion of the wider underlying issues.

Is Wales a nation, a region or an imagined community?

There's a hierarchy of human organisation that's naturally fallen into place for whatever reason. From the bottom-up, we have : individuals, families, communities, towns/cities, local authorities, regions/federal states, nations, "extended national/cultural families", continents/supranational organisations and a global community. To any Welsh nationalist, Wales is/should be explicitly a nation in this hierarchy, yet Wales remains/is treated as a region of the UK - albeit with clearly defined responsibilities devolved from the centre.

I don't want to get bogged down too much in the semantics of nationhood and identity. There's a civic Welshness, a civic Englishness, a civic Britishness and we are all Europeans, humans and members of the smaller communities in which we live.

I don't think there needs to be anything "special" about the Welsh to want full statehood. "Special" - in the wrong environment and context - can easily be fostered to become "better than" and "superior". All that there needs to be is a Welsh civic identity and a desire - by the majority - to have that identity fully expressed and recognised internationally as an equal to any other nationality – with the same voice, privileges and responsibilities.

I also, believe it or not, have a sense of Britishness (I'm sure other nationalists do as well) – a sense of "kinship" or "extended family" that might be equally applicable to the Nordic nations. In a UK context, it can be applied to Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the rest of the Commonwealth. Also, they show that you don't need a political union to remain "part of the family".

When I, as a nationalist, look at voting patterns for example, it's always from a national perspective and as a national dynamic - never as a region. Comparable to England, Scotland, Northern Ireland or any other nation as a whole (and as an equal) but not one of the regions of England.

Is there a civic "north east England-ness" in the same way as there is for Wales, England, the UK etc? Are comparisons between a region of a nation and a nation ever fully valid? Wales may share a lot with the north east of England, demographically, economically and psephologically but I'm sure there are other regions in Europe - and elsewhere - where Wales is equally comparable. For example : Wallonia, Silesia and Brandenburg. There are also several dozen full nation states Wales can be compared to.

Wales also has it's own "regions" – the north west of Wales isn't comparable to the south east in many ways but they share a civic identity, a cultural expression of it (via sport etc.), a contiguous territorial identity, a devolved national government and a common culture.

Does it do Wales any favours to be obsessed with the neighbours gardens while ignoring the rest of the street or the wider neighbourhood? Is Wales stuck in a British bubble?

Stretching the British constitution to breaking point

One of the UK constitution's strengths is that it has a fair bit of slack and hasn't been rigidly set down US-style. One of its weaknesses, is that compromises have the potential to leave the constitution in a tangled mess, or store problems for the future inadvertently. The asymmetrical nature of devolution is an example as is the complete ignorance of English national feeling.

The UK constitution has snapped before – in Ireland - for a multitude of reasons, none of which really apply to modern Wales, Scotland or England. What I fear, is that we are heading for a similar situation in the next 10 or 20 years. Tensions between the constituent nations of the UK originating from constitutional policies that were good at the time but no longer work or lose public support (i.e Barnett formula). The constitution could then be stretched so far (i.e. Independence-lite in Scotland) that it is effectively useless at holding the core together - like a rubber band that's lost its elasticity.

If there are moves to codify or solidify the UK's constitution, then it'll lose it's flexibility that's vital to make the government and legal system (in EnglandandWales at least) function properly. If nothing is done, then the tensions placed on it - for example the English Question or the (theoretical) repatriation of powers from the devolved nations to Westminster - could cause it to snap once again.

Independence for the UK nations is just one solution or possible outcome but not necessarily the "must have" solution.

Uti possidetis juris, sovereignty and devolution

Regarding my comment on a separate Welsh body of law – it's already happened. It very much "is" instead of "ought to". The Welsh Assembly has passed measures (and will in future pass Acts) that have changed - in Wales - the way health and social services are delivered, the planning system, laws governing the Welsh language, education, housing, the Welsh approach to the environment et al. The Welsh border is locked in legally and there is now a form of Welsh sovereignty. If these laws (and future ones) are to be enforced properly in the future it will require - with some inevitability - a separate legal jurisdiction to England.

Cross-border cooperation in its most basic sense, will have to be on the basis on two nations, not one EnglandandWales clump or some sort of cross-border "super region".

I gave environmental policy and government responses to climate change as an example where there are, or will be, different priorities between Wales and England. Responding to climate change isn't as simple as reducing carbon emissions and other greenhouse gases – it means whole scale change in public attitudes and behaviour, using resources more effectively and physically preparing for the impacts (i.e. Flood protection, civil defence, land management).

It can easily be accommodated by devolution, but in my opinion, with more powers devolved away from the centre, this makes a full, unitary, political union more redundant and restrictive - not more useful. It creates more completely avoidable tensions between differing and bickering layers of government. Half measures in areas such as energy policy and natural resources like water - especially when they are key parts of the Welsh economy - isn't a healthy situation, and are historical sore points.

Adam Higgitt is absolutely right that there can be policy/constitutional adjustment to reflect a multitude of different "local factors" , instead of a black and white choice between an over centralised British state and an over centralised Wales. There are plenty of examples around the world that do this without compromising on sovereignty or civic/territorial integrity - even in small nations i.e. the Swiss cantons, the Belgian communities or even the European Union itself.

My personal belief,  is that sovereignty resides with the individual and its political and governmental manifestations should get weaker with every step up the hierarchy. I certainly don't believe devolution has to stop at the Welsh level. I think Adam Higgitt and nationalists share an lot in common with regard how the constitution and sovereignty - in all its forms - can be perfected. We just have slightly differing ideas about where "Wales" would fit in - if it should fit in to it at all.

Any attempt to split Wales up, as a territorial contiguous nation, will be seen by nationalists as partition. That's not something the UK has had a good historical track record in.

Wales in Europe

Perfectly valid points are often raised about Wales' potential relationship with the European Union and whether Wales would cede sovereignty from one union to another. Is it a case of better the devil you know?

The EU is a very different beast to the UK. It has strength in numbers - yet doesn't massively infringe on individual national sovereignty thanks in part to a very weak civic European identity. Although there can be no doubt that it does exert a "control".

It has all the benefits of political union : freedom of movement, capital and trade for example that we currently enjoy in the UK in addition to currency union for the Eurozone.

The EU is also very good for smaller exporting nations (of which Wales is one) and small nations in general who've benefited a great deal from it, with many becoming very influential in European decision making, not to mention the rolling 6-month presidency of the European Council – dare I say it a "flotilla effect".

From a nationalist perspective, the UK is acting as a middle man, getting in between Wales and the EU. Why does Wales  have to be dragged along with the ebb and flow of Britain's fractious relationship with the EU? Influenced and dominated (by sheer weight of numbers) by eurosceptic English and British nationalism? Is that in Wales' best interests in the long term? I don't think it is.

Wales has inherent disadvantages being a "region" instead of a full member state.  Wales has fewer MEP's (4) than it would as an independent EU member (~8-12). Wales has no EU Commissioner, no member of the EU Council and plays no role in the big decisions. Instead Wales' role is relegated to regional groupings, while matters vital (or in some cases exclusive since devolution) to Wales' interests - like the CAP and Objective One - are done through the UK on our behalf. Why?

Smaller nations in Europe are no longer the play thing of the traditional great European powers (England [by extension the UK], Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Russia) that change hands depending on power politics. The EU has brought a stability and certainty for smaller countries that protects their sovereignty and treats them as equals.

It's a Europe of independent and sovereign nation states, not regions or any sort of half-way house.

Killing Wales through kindness

There is a certain logic to wealthier areas subsidising straggling areas. This happens within Wales to a certain extent via the Welsh Government's redistribution of locally-raised taxes. The question is whether - on the larger macroeconomic scale - this actually doing more harm to the economies of  straggling areas than good, and if this approach is only managing a decline than actually giving these areas an economic boost.

Wales has near Soviet-levels of public expenditure as a percentage of GDP by virtue of being a straggling area in a wealthy UK - propped up to a certain extent by big "UK" spends. This doesn't scream like an invitation to inward investors or somewhere to inspire confidence in entrepreneurs. As Wales becomes an ever smaller proportion of the UK's population , the pressures to replace the Barnett Formula could see the subvention heading from Westminster shrink.

Within Wales, the gap between the East and West is large, but it is in fact narrowing - thanks in part to sluggish growth in East Wales compared to the rest of the UK. Wales also has some unique problems in closing this gap compared to North and South England. West Wales is mostly rural and sparsely populated, with higher than average jobs in the public sector. The North of England can at least still rely on big centres of employment, and global cities like Birmingham and Manchester, to be drivers of the kind of growth that keeps their heads above water - or at least respectable in terms of GVA per capita.

UK economic policy backs winners at the expense of losers. UK social policy is perhaps the opposite.

The UK does have more than one global city. The Globalisation and World Cities Research Network lists London (Alpha), Birmingham, Manchester (Beta) Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds, Belfast, Southampton (Gamma). Notice something about the list? Practically every single capital of a European nation is on the extended list. There's a big difference between England and Wales right there, and a massive one in terms of the economy.

Capital follows power and influence – the agglomeration effect. If Wales can use its national status to its advantage, why shouldn't we? If Wales really wants to follow an English examplem then Wales should reconsider the role of cities in economic development instead of trying to push water uphill.

There's no question that Wales need a more dynamic, more ambitious private sector and that there are endemic weaknesses within the Welsh economy that can be equally applicable to regions of England or in Europe (NE England and Brandenburg for example). Solving this problem doesn't necessarily mean "becoming more like England". I would like to think that Wales can adopt an approach that compensates for the lack of agglomeration, and re-balances the relationship between the public and private sector, without the "power struggle" between them that dogs "British" and English politics. My point about the Welsh middle/professional classes having a much bigger vested interest in the public sector is relevant to this.

In many respects, this will need full macroeconomic powers of an independent state, or at the very least a significant shift in economic sovereignty down to Wales from Westminster. Edwina Hart can tinker around the edges, but monetary/fiscal policy, taxation and things like welfare and employment laws play a much bigger role in the success and failures of the economy and individual businesses than grants and fast broadband.

Imagine having the most overbearing parents possible while living at home in your 40's. Wales is Timothy Lumsden from "Sorry".

Why culture matters

My comments on things like sport and culture were purely observations, but I don't think that makes them any less relevant to the "uniqueness" of Wales. Things like sport and the arts shape and define a nation and its identity. To ignore it would be to ignore the essence of Wales itself. It's not the most important thing on the list in terms of warranting independence, but it does provide the foundation for a national civic identity that - in nationalist opinion - underpins independence. It's our voice and deserves to be heard on the World stage as an equal.

The nonconformist issue of course is irrelevant now. It's important historically because the disestablishment of the Church of England in Wales acknowledged that there was a key difference between England and Wales as nations. It applied explicitly to a territory and nation of "Wales" and was controversial in doing so. Again, little things like this underpin a civic Welsh national identity and a uniquely "Welsh way of doing things".

It's agreed that the Welsh language is an important difference between Wales and England, Adam agreed that Wales should have custodianship of it. From a somewhat self-preservationary viewpoint, would Welsh speakers feel more comfortable being a 20-25% minority in 3million or less than (and ever shrinking) 1% of 60million+? Who can be heard effectively? Who can be pushed around more easily?

Equally, although English language is used as a medium, is there any reason why the English language culture of Wales - with its own idiosyncrasies - shouldn't belong to Wales either? Part of the reason Wales has such a weak media is that, in English-language culture, we've often looked east (or in some respects forced to look east) instead of building up our own version and providing a Welsh twang and a Welsh viewpoint to the Anglosphere. This is slowly changing with regards television and on the internet though.

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Ieuan's swan song and Plaid's paradox

Ieuan Wyn Jones's legacy to Wales and Plaid Cymru runs far
deeper than high-profile air links and "WAG" managerialism. (Pic : BBC)

He's still got another few months as Plaid leader, but Ieuan Wyn Jones's speech at the Plaid conference last week was the start of a goodbye process. Who will replace him? We don't know. Judging by reports, there'll be no shortage of candidates. Elin Jones has thrown her hat into the ring, Dafydd-El Thomas too. There have also been rumblings about Leanne Wood, Llyr Huws Gruffydd, Simon Thomas and Jocelyn Davies since May's disappointing election results.


IWJ's legacy will be a bit of an odd one. He's arguably the most successful leader Plaid has ever had, yet this isn't the first time the party has moved quickly to replace him and descend into (justified) post-election naval gazing.


He was a successful Economy and Transport Minister in terms of delivering projects on time (if not quite on budget) and overseeing a complex (and controversial) review of post-WDA economic policy. He's an excellent manager, organiser and always seemed keen to listen. Yet he never seemed to have the confidence of the business community, and there have been more than a fair share of completely unfair accusations and labels thrown at the man.


"Ieuan Air" is a case in point. The outgoing Labour Second Assembly introduced the north-south air link in 2007 - before the election, and way before Plaid went into One Wales. Yet all of the negative fall out - the accusations that it's a waste of money (as though £1.5million would achieve anything near the same boost for north-south travel) or that the money should be spent subsidising the awfully-run Cardiff Airport - fell squarely on IWJ's shoulders.


In his own back yard, he was accused of doing too much "nation building" - improving north-south links that would shame a Central American banana republic. He also stood equally accused of not doing enough for Ynys Mon – like failing to wave the WAG's magic wand and turn Wales' most rural, most distant local authority - run by a cabal of bickering and incompetent Independents - into an economic powerhouse.


He's been labelled bland and uncharismatic, yet his speech to the conference was full of passion and vitriol - albeit in Welsh. He's clearly a far better public speaker in Welsh than English. That's a problem (though in an ideal world it wouldn't be a problem) if Plaid want to make head ways in the Valley and M4 corridor. It's a factor the party membership should consider when choosing a new leader.


His performances in the leader debates in April were pretty good - especially the first one. Yet he was always cut as something of a pathetic figure. A squeaky "Gog", who couldn't command physical presence (like Carwyn Jones and a lesser extent Kirsty Williams) or a lightly pompous academic respect (like Nick Bourne). Yet he was still a fine leader regardless. No infighting or party rebellions. Competent in government. A trustworthy and workmanlike face for Plaid.


He didn't get everything right. He had a tendency to waffle, a tendency to become obsessed with process over delivery (a Welsh problem if ever there was one) and never stood up for himself or his record in government when it mattered.


But there's absolutely no reason why he, or Plaid, shouldn't be proud of his contribution as leader.


Ieuan's legacy is everywhere: the construction of a £100m+ road in Port Talbot that will help regenerate the centre of the town, the Porthmadog and Tremadog bypass, the Church Village Bypass delivered after 30 years of waiting, several new and improved rail stations, a new Swansea bus station, a reduction in road casualties because of "nation building" safety improvements along the A470, platform extensions in the south Wales valleys, ProAct & ReAct keeping thousands of people in work and training during the worst recession since the 1930's (and Welsh unemployment not the worst of the UK's nations and regions for once) and a strong case made for future electrification of the south Wales mainline and valley lines.


He set the ball rolling for infrastructure improvements for the next 10-15 years. He also radically (in Welsh terms) changed the relationship between business and state that has existed unchallenged in Wales for 40 years – a conceived wisdom that handouts and grants dished out like swimming certificates to any business that wants one in a mobile globalised economy automatically leads to jobs and wealth creation.


I'm not the only one who disagrees with some of the outcomes of that, but he grasped a poisoned chalice and did his best to deliver in some pretty intolerable conditions and under fire from many different quarters.


History is going to be very kind to him.


The Plaid Paradox


There were a few other developments at the conference of note.


Firstly, the party have finally put "the i-word" into its constitution. We should be laughing at the reaction to this - especially from our Cheryl - that independence has been some sort of insidious "nats under the bed" plot Plaid have kept quiet for decades. I'm glad this nonsense has been sorted out once and for all. It's also prompted one of the best debates on Welsh independence for a long time on BBC Radio Wales which you can listen to here.


Secondly - and more importantly - the vote to support those evading TV Licence Fees in protest at the UK Government's proposals for S4C funding.


The good from this move is that Plaid are clearly a party who actually listens to and values its membership, they actually have a spine and that they are not ashamed to stand up and fight for what they believe in – things ordinary voters might want in a party.


And yet this is also the sign of a party driven by protest and the Welsh language, willing to ramp up illegal activity to make a point – things that will turn away many ordinary voters, and make Plaid look like nothing more than a large pressure group.


This is the "Plaid Paradox" : electable, yet unelectable at the same time.


The SNP have managed to reconcile the two (North Sea oil arguably being the SNP equivilant of the Welsh language) and that might be one of the reasons they've been so successful. Surely there's a "moderate" path Plaid can follow as well instead of being dragged to extremes?


No party should encourage or support illegal activity unless there is a clear injustice, oppression or predjudice being enacted or targeted at its members or supporter base that contradicts the existing law or constitution. As frustrating as the S4C situation is, I fail to see the "injustice", but what I do see is an opportunity.


Plaid could have come out of this calling for a new funding model – i.e. Welsh Government grant funding for S4C, combined with the licence fee - or even used this as leverage to devolve broadcasting (or at least Welsh-language broadcasting) to Wales. That would've not only made Welsh Labour look toothless and lazy, it would've made Plaid look like they were the only party genuinely standing up for Welsh interests and that they are willing to explore the issues and come up with clear and practical solutions.

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Rugby World Cup 2011 Predictions

Dere 'mlaen Cymru!..............
........until the quarter finals at least (Pic : Guardian)

The Rugby World Cup kicks off tomorrow, with all the home nations involved of course. I'm not much of a rugby fan to be frank - I'm more into football - but I believe I know just enough about the sport to make a prediction on the outcome.

The kick off times might be a bit inconvenient for the large European and African audiences, but the Antipodeans have had to deal with that every time the tournament has been hosted in the north - fair's fair.

Only five nations are realistic contenders for the trophy : New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, England and France. Many believe this World Cup is New Zealand's to lose. Call me lazy if you want, but I can go along with that.

A best case scenario for Wales and Ireland are kind draws in the quarter finals (depending on their results in their respective pools) that might open the door to the semi's or even the final itself but that's a long shot. Whether Scotland can get that far depends on their result against Argentina.

This Welsh side appear to be the best prepared ever for a World Cup. I think they can and will exorcise some Oceanian demons this time around....touch wood.

Pool A

New Zealand
France
==========
Tonga
-----------------
Japan
Canada

Pool B

England
Argentina
==========
Scotland
------------------
Georgia
Romania

Pool C

Australia
Ireland
===========
Italy
------------------
United States
Russia

Pool D

South Africa
Wales
===========
Fiji
----------------
Samoa
Namibia

Quarter Finals (winners in bold)

Australia v Wales
England v France
South Africa v Ireland
New Zealand v Argentina

Semi Finals

Australia v England
South Africa v New Zealand

Third Place Game

England v South Africa

Final

New Zealand v Australia

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"The Higgitt Question" - A response from the man himself

Last month, I blogged about a discussion in a Wales Home comments section that stemmed from an article about the Welsh language by Blog Banw's Adam Jones. Imagine my surprise when Adam Higgitt himself took the time and effort to respond to my blog yesterday.

This was very much appreciated and a class act.


Due to Blogger's comments section limitations, I've decided to post Adam's response in full here because it deserves to be read. As you would expect Adam makes a brilliant case even if there are some parts I don't agree with. It certainly deserves a proper response and I will endeavor to do so in the near future.


A Background


The exact quote from Wales Home:

I find myself asking: what are these differences which are apparently so fundamental as to positively compel a completely different constitutional settlement and yet which cannot be described – by anyone?

Now I took "constitutional settlement" to mean many things: devolution, devolution-max, a new form of British federalism, American-style federalism, German-style federalism, confederalism and of course independence.


Adam's response implies he was referring exclusively to independence. My blogpost was trying to address any sort of difference between Wales, England and the rest of the UK that may warrant a "different" policy approach at a Welsh level or economically, historically (religion/non-conformism) or culturally (sport/culture) set Wales as a nation apart from England as a nation.


I summed this up as a question (and you could easily replace Wales and England with Scotland, Catalonia, Spain etc.)

What are the differences between Wales and England and why do they warrant a separate constitutional settlement?

Here's the original Wales Home article by Blog Banw


Here's my "Higgitt Question" blog from August.


Here's Adam Higgitt's response posted yesterday afternoon:

Owen


I’m sorry I’ve only just got around to seeing this, as a reply now seems somewhat tardy. However, since I’ve never before had a question named after me (and probably won’t again) I feel it’s in order.


I’m really pleased that you’ve given this answer, but I should add at the start of my reply (because, I’m sorry to say, this is a very long reply) that it wasn’t really the question I posed. What I was really seeking illumination on was: what is different about the Welsh as a people such that their own separate state is the optimum moral or practical solution? It is a subtle difference, but to my mind an important one. It strikes me that to be a nationalist one has to have some sort of conception of particularity or specialness of the people who comprise the nation in question: after all, if one didn’t believe that something that defined their group, it could not surely be a group?


It seems to me that this “root” question – what is special/different about the Welsh as a people – has to be addressed before any others. If not, you fall into the same circular trap that your response does at times (i.e Wales is different, therefore we should be treated differently). The problem with such circular argument is that it is incapable of deducing cause from correlation, and hence can’t get to the nub.


Your first “exhibit” – voting patterns - is a case in point. Wales’s more left-wing leanings are surely a function, not a cause, of an idea of Welsh peculiarity. Merely saying “Wales is a [more] centre-left nation” is a statement of bald psephological fact – it doesn’t address why this is so. There is another serious grievance with this in that, by only looking at nation-level voting patterns, you come up with the answer you want. The north east of England, for example, is an even more Labour-leaning part of the UK than Wales. So is the north west. Does this mean that both have a case to become separate states? What about Yorkshire and the Humber, which was more Labour-leaning until recently? What happens if Wales continues along the pattern of the last couple of elections (don’t forget that the Conservatives topped the poll in Wales in 2009) and exhibits a greater proclivity to vote Tory? Conversely, what about those parts of Wales, like the north east and south east coastal strips, that behave very much like (your notion of) England? Why should they be lumped in with the valleys and urban areas that vote Labour much the same as former coalfield areas and cities in England do? Welsh voting patterns, if you break it down, are a function of very conventionally British socio-economic factors, albeit operating counter-cyclically to the "mother" polity at times.


You say that Welsh and Scottish nationalism are less Eurosceptic than English and British nationalism. Perhaps so, but given all of those, with the exception of Scottish nationalism, are (presently) marginal electoral forces, I’m not sure what this helps to establish. The Welsh as a people appear to be only slightly less Eurosceptic than the English, and the embrace of Scottish and Welsh nationalism of Europe was, as we know, a tactical move, designed (in the sentiment of Dafydd Wigley) to remove the taint of separatism. It nonetheless raises an important question about a movement that wants independence from the British union but is outwardly enthusiastic about ceding a very large amount of independence to the European Union. But that’s probably for another discussion.


On public services, I think you have half a point. But this is difference born or Welsh relative rurality or sparsity of population. Any modern and intelligent constitutional settlement ought to be capable of adjusting policy to reflect such physical differences. Moreover, it’s only true in some parts of Wales. In others, there is the concentration of population much like urban areas of England. Surely what we need is not a choice between an all-UK approach or an all-Wales approach, but something that reflects the local reality? We need a more localist approach than either a centralised British or Welsh state can offer.


You then go onto suggest that “middle-Wales” is less upwardly-mobile and public-sector facing. Even if this is so, most agree that Wales needs a larger and more dynamic private sector, so the aspiration here is to be more like England, not less. Your point about prams and Adare street is a good one, but I don’t think this is to do with social leveling – it is merely a product of the fact that Wales is a country of 3 million rather than 60 million. Besides, didn’t I see pictures of David Cameron pushing a pram down his local high street recently?


As for Welsh social egalitarianism, I suspect this is more a working-class and less a national thing. Again, I’d suggest a comparison with England’s ex-coalfield areas, as well as her upland farming areas might be illuminating. I don’t believe the Welsh have a different idea about the type of people who ought to sit at the top table - in fact, what is striking about devolved politics is how often it seems to mimic British politics.


You are right that the composition of the Welsh economy is different from that of England’s. Actually, to be more accurate, it is different from London’s in the way you describe (England, by the way, doesn’t have several global cities, it has one; even Greater Manchester’s population is a mere one-quarter that of London’s, Leeds is one-tenth the size and Birmingham, while larger, is just another provincial European city. Belfast, for the record, is smaller than Cardiff and only slightly larger than Swansea). The economy of the north east of England shares a lot of similarities with Wales, The economy of the West Midlands is different from both London and Wales/NE England. The south west of England is different again. One size doesn’t fit all these different areas, but that doesn’t in itself mean they each need to be separate states, or that a UK-wide macroeconomic policy is incapable of meeting all those different needs, any more than an all-Wales macroeconomic policy ought to be flexible enough to cater for the prosperous south east and north east of Wales, and still take care of the Valleys and west Wales.


I can’t comment on your observations about matriarchy vs rule of law because I don’t know of any evidence to support them. But they are, at least, an attempt to identify something qualitatively different in the values, customs and sentiments of the Welsh as a people.


You are right about the Welsh language. Along with its associated culture, it is one of the very few things that is unambiguously distinctively Welsh. Of course, as you note, Wales is also very extensively English-speaking, and the English language is very much part of Welsh culture. Should Wales have “ultimate custodianship” of the Welsh language? I believe so. Does this require a separate state? I doubt that, and the existence of numerous bilingual and multilingual states suggests that it is not necessary.


As for sport, no it certainly isn’t as clear-cut as your opening sentences imply. I’m afraid that your following observations on culture and sport don’t strike me as especially valid or grounded in evidence. And they certainly don’t pass the “we therefore need a separate state” test. As for religion, I very much hope we have definitively moved beyond the era when peoples and states are divided according to religion.


Your comments on laws fall into the “ought” rather than the “is” category: it is something you hope to see as opposed to something that is in place and differentiates the Welsh.


On climate change, I find this analysis rather odd. Yes, Wales has certain natural assets that can be brought to bear in pursuit of a more sustainable mix of energy production, and devolution (with amendments) should be more than flexible enough to tailor policy accordingly. But on the broader picture, Wales, England, the rest of the British Isles and indeed most of Europe are in exactly the same position. What is needed here is greater co-ordination to reduce emissions. England’s additional need for climate change mitigation is a miniscule issue by comparison, and certainly doesn’t mean that Wales and England are incompatible as joint members of a political union.


On sub-national divisions, again I fail to see the point you are trying to make. Yes, attempts have been made to address the relative underperformance of west Wales and the Valleys, just as (in many cases exactly the same) attempts have been made to address similarly identified malaise in Merseyside, Cornwall and several other English regions. And I’m sorry to tell you that the gap between east and west Wales is also widening.


***


Please don’t get me wrong: there are important areas in which Wales as a whole is different from England as a whole. It is, by and large more rural and sparsely populated. It is more mountainous. It has commensurately poorer communications links. It has a greater proportion of relatively depressed post-industrial areas. And it has a unique and historic language and associated culture. But none of these, individually or collectively make the case for a separate Welsh state (as opposed to, say, a modern federal state) and none do justice to the real issue, namely the need for form of government that recognises the substantial differences that exist within Wales and within England and the commonalities that exist between parts of these two countries. A lot of problems you have described are functions of a historically over-centralised British state. I fail to see how these will be fixed by supplanting it with an over-centralised Welsh state.


Best


Adam

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Evolving the Welsh Baccalaureate

Curriculum 2000 & "Key Skills" - My Experience

The Welsh Baccalaureate - in itself - is a Welsh evolution of the Blair government's Curriculum 2000. My year were the first cohort to be taught under this new curriculum - which introduced A/S and A2 Levels. The Welsh Assembly - which was barely a year old at the time - was still in the administrative devolution stage, and merely enacted policy with a bit of tweaking here and there.

The relevant part of Curriculum 2000 vis-à-vis the Welsh Baccalaureate is "Key Skills" - in numeracy, communication/literacy and IT. As a sixth-former, I had to prepare a portfolio of evidence for each of these key skills as well as take a short exam. Each key skill was worth a certain amount of UCAS points, and although it was clear that the teachers were trying their hardest to take this seriously, the whole thing seemed like a complete waste of our time and their time.

While I was conducting in depth analysis of war poetry, I had to prove for "key skills" that I could write a letter. While Geography was introducing us to the student t-test and I had to balance equations for Chemistry, for "key skills" I had to prove that I could read from a bar graph. Use of IT was an integral part of every single subject, yet I had to collect evidence that I could word process properly.

The exams for these key skills could best be described as an insult to the intelligence of any sixth former. My GCSE exams were harder. I'm not sure what the portfolio or the exams were supposed to prove to myself, teachers, universities or future employers.

The Welsh Baccalaureate

The Welsh Baccalaureate, in its current form, could be described as "A-Level General Studies on steroids". Former WJEC chair and Bridgend Council leader Jeff Jones described it as "an A-Level with a load on nonsense added on." Even the Institute of Welsh Affairs have been critical.

The "Key Skills" element from Curriculum 2000 is still there, but there are additional requirements for the Advanced Level - such as work experience, volunteering, community service, an individual investigation - in addition to traditional A-Level subjects.

This year, some 7,000 students received the Advanced Level Welsh Bac - a big rise on 2010. It's claimed that UCAS consider it the equivalent of an A-grade at A-Level, but it's not as clear cut as that. It depends on the courses applied for and the university itself. Some universities and some courses only consider it a B-grade (like Cardiff University), or only accept the Welsh Bacc in lieu of certain A-Levels. Others, like Aberystwyth University, accept the Welsh Bacc fully as an A-grade. This is an unacceptable situation in my opinion.

As someone who's gone through Curriculum 2000, the Welsh Bac is a huge improvement on it. If I were in the position of going into sixth form, I'd consider the Welsh Baccalaureate a worthwhile qualification. However, I can't help but feel it falls short of its peers on the European mainland.

International examples Wales can emulate

French baccalauréat – Divided into three "streams" (sciences, economics and literature). French, Maths, philosophy, PE and a second language are all compulsory. Subjects are weighted based on their importance in their respective "stream" (i.e. Life sciences is weighted heavily in sciences stream, while languages more so in the literature stream). Exams average 3 hours and are essay based, multiple choice questions are unusual.

International Baccalaureate (IB) – A "core" of six subjects; maths, the native language, a second language, a science, a social science subject and an elective (usually arts). This is in addition to an extended 4000-word essay project, a critical reasoning module and up to 150 hours of extra curricular activity (called creativity, action and service).

Voorbereidend wetenschappelijk onderwijs (VWO) – Dutch pre-university eduction. Four "specialisations" (Culture/Society, Economics, Nature & Health, Nature & Technology) each placing a different emphasis on various subjects (i.e. Culture & Society focuses on history, arts and languages). Maths, Dutch, English and an additional language are compulsory, though different specialisations emphasise different mathematical disciplines.

A proposal for the Welsh Baccalaureate of the future

Key Principals

• The Welsh Baccalaureate should be a qualification worth getting in itself, not just a matriculation/university entrance one or an additional A-Level. It should prepare students for employment as much as university.
• Academic and vocational qualifications should have equal status.
• The teaching structure of post-16 courses should be changed to a university-style one (lectures in large groups, tutorials/seminars in small groups, practicals where applicable) with more self-directed learning and a de-facto 9-5 day.
• Post-16 education should be provided exclusively by further education colleges in the medium to long term. Provide a university-style experience without actually needing to go to university, including a students union and membership to NUS Wales. Make sure there is as wide a choice as possible in post-16 subjects and courses.
• Marks should be given in percentages instead of grades, with a 50% pass mark. A student would have to pass all of the elements to get the Baccalaureate. There should also be "Honours", "Distinction" and "Merit" categories for high-acheiving students i.e. Top 1% in Wales get Welsh Baccalaureate with "Honours".
• Exams should take place at the end of each module (spreading the exams out over the academic year), should be essay based and ideally not exceed 2 hours in length. Coursework should be replaced with teacher-monitored in-class assessments/assignments. Arts subjects are an exception for obvious reasons.

Proposed Welsh Baccalaureate Structure

• A student chooses a "profile" (outlined below) and a selection of A-Level, A/S Level or vocational courses, some of which will be compulsory depending on the profile chosen.
• Students should be able to make their Baccalaureate as challenging or pragmatic as possible and be able to choose up to 5 A-Levels or its equivalent.
• Short courses should be offered to partially meet compulsory profile requirements (i.e. An "Essential Maths for scientists" course instead of A/S Level Maths). These shouldn't be seen as a "soft touch", and would be examined/assessed to the same standards as A and A/S levels.
• A student prepared 4000-word investigation on a subject of their choice along with a 5 minute presentation of its key findings. It would be assessed on quality of argument, research skills and quality of language/presentation.
• Each student should spend two-weeks either in work experience or volunteering in the summer break between year 12 and 13.
• Students should be able to organise their own extra-curricular activities to provide a greater breadth of choice. There should be greater organised inter-college competition in sport and other activities.

The Proposed Profiles

Natural Sciences

Careers/University Courses : Medicine, Dentistry, Nursing, Pharmaceuticals, Medical Sciences, Academia, Laboratory & Industrial Science, Chemical Engineering, Earth Sciences, Conservation/Environmental Science

• Compulsory Course I : At least 2 natural, earth or applied science A-Levels
• Compulsory Course II: At least an A/S Level in Mathematics or equivalent

Physical Sciences & Engineering

Careers/University Courses : IT, Academia, Physical Sciences, Astronomy/Space Science, Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, Civic Engineering, Product Design, Architecture, Energy Industries, Skilled Trades

• Compulsory Course I : Mathematics A-Level
• Compulsory Course II: 2 A-Levels from physical sciences, computing, engineering or technology

Business & Economics

Careers/University Courses : Entrepreneurship, Business, Finance, Economics, Public Relations, Retail, Personnel & Recruitment, Law, Marketing, Advertising, Management, Politics

• Compulsory Course I : Either Mathematics or Economics A-Level
• Compulsory Course II: A non-native language A-Level
• Compulsory Course III: A humanities, business, computing or technology A-Level

Communication & Social Sciences

Careers/University Courses : Law, Translation, Business, Liberal Arts, History & Archeology, Anthropology, Classics, Social Sciences, Politics, Psychology, Performing Arts, Media/Journalism, Speech Therapy, Publishing, Criminology, Teaching, Child Care

• Compulsory Course I : English (or Welsh First Language)
• Compulsory Course II : Non-native second language A-Level
• Compulsory Course III: Humanities/Social Sciences or Arts A-Level

Public Service & Leadership

Careers/University Courses : Law, Law Enforcement, Military, Security, Skilled Trades, Politics, Teaching, Management, Retail, Nursing, Civil Service, Professional Sports, Child Care

• Compulsory Course I (Logic): One from Mathematics, Computing, Economics or Physics
• Compulsory Course II (Social Awareness): A humanities A-Level
• Compulsory Course III (Communication): A languages A-Level

Creative Arts

Careers/University Courses : Architecture, Performing Arts, Advertising, Graphic Design, Product Design, Marketing, Media, Photography, Teaching, Cosmetology, Fashion Industries/Textiles, Child Care

• Compulsory Course I : First language or humanities A-Level
• Compulsory Course II : Two creative arts A-Levels
• Additional Requirement : A maintained professional portfolio for one of the creative arts subjects

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Senedd Watch - August 2011

• The First Minister signed a memorandum of understanding with the Trinidad & Tobago Olympic Committee, who have chosen Cardiff as a training base for their athletes in the build-up to the 2012 London Olympics.
• The National Assembly's Constitutional and Legislative Affairs Committee is to hold and inquiry into how powers are handled and transferred between the UK and Welsh governments - including Legislative Consent Motions which allow UK ministers to legislate on devolved matters as well as issues surrounding the transfer of powers to Welsh ministers via UK legislation.
• The Assembly Commission is drawing up a bill that will make the Assembly officially bilingual. The Official Languages Bill will mean that Welsh and English must be treated on an equal basis in the Assembly. Llywydd Rosmary Butler said that the Assembly should provide "exemplar bilingual services".
• Concerns have been raised about changes to a "first responder" scheme in rural Wales that trains fire crews in medical emergencies - if they are first on the scene. Peter Black AM (Lib Dem, South Wales West) said that the Welsh Ambulance Service had "scaled back the scheme without consultation".
• Ann Jones AM (Lab, Vale of Clwyd) described claims by Redrow Homes Steve Morgan that mandatory fire suppression systems would put developers off building homes in poorer areas of Wales as "reckless". She also rejected Steve Morgan's costing of the systems at more than £3500, saying they would cost between £1000 and £3000 and builders can make adjustments to offset the costs.
• Six areas of Wales will be able bid for local TV services as part of UK Government plans for a network of 65 "Channel 6" community TV stations. Cardiff, Carmarthen, Haverfordwest, Mold, Swansea and Bangor were shortlisted. Up to £40million of licence fee money will be available for start-ups.
• First Minister Carwyn Jones has condemned rioting in England, saying that it was "a tragedy that there are people in some parts of the UK who have such little respect for others who live in their own community." South Wales and North Wales police forces had sent assistance to London along with more than 30 other forces in England, Scotland and Wales.
• The National Assembly is half-way towards meeting its target of reducing its own carbon emissions by 40% by 2015. Peter Black AM said that it was "pleasing", and that he was confident that there would be further innovations and ideas for the future.
• Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Kirsty Williams backed a campaign for the voting age to be reduced from 18 to 16.
• Unemployment in Wales rose by 10,000 to stand at 8.4% in the 3 months to June, higher than the UK average of 7.9%. All of the home nations saw rises in unemployment over the period.
• Former police officer Byron Davies AM (Con, South Wales West) has revived calls for a single national police force for Wales, saying that it was a realistic option in the face of public spending cuts.
• There was a slight rise in the number of A*-E passes at A-Level in Wales with 97.2% of students entered achieving a pass in 2011, compared to 97.1% in 2010. There was also a rise in the number of "good" (A*-C) A-Level passes. However there was a fall in the number of A*'s awarded in Wales, falling short of both England and Northern Ireland. In addition more than 8300 students were awarded a Welsh Baccalaureate, the Advanced Diploma being considered the equivalent of an A-grade at A-level by UCAS as well as many, but not all, universities.
• GCSE results showed another modest improvement on 2010 with a 98.7% pass rate at A*-G and 66.5% of entries earning an A*-C grade. Both figures remain behind England and Northern Ireland although the gap narrowed between Wales and England/Northern Ireland for high grades (A*-A).
• A BBC Wales Freedom of Information request shown that Welsh ambulances failure to meet a 20-minute turnaround time at hospital accident and emergency departments has cost the Welsh NHS as much as £10million.
• The Rarer Cancers Foundation charity has warned that cancer patients both Wales and Scotland are more likely to miss out on new cancer drugs - with patients in Wales five times less likely to get such treatments than those in England. The medical director of the Welsh NHS, Dr Chris Jones, has said that he saw no need for a separate cancer drugs fund, with Wales spending £5 per head more than England on cancer treatment and that NICE approved drugs were more readily available in Wales than England.
• A report by the Chartered Management Institute has shown that Wales has the smallest gender pay gap of all the UK's nations and regions, with men being paid on average £2,441 more than women compared to the UK average of £10,564.
• Projects announced in August include a 3-year, £125million Work Based Learning initiative part funded by the European Social Fund, a £2.8million skills fund for those working in criminal justice in Wales and a £5.4million revamp of Llandudno railway station.

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Andrew RT Davies - The good and the bad

It's been a quiet summer on the Welsh politics front, but there are stirrings of activity as AMs prepare to return to Cardiff in a few weeks time. Our new leader of the opposition in the Assembly has been  vocal the last week or so, locking horns with Leighton Andrews on exam results, and speaking out on the UK Government's promise to hold a vote on repealing the fox hunting ban.


The Good

"What is social justice? A millionaire getting paracetamol [free]? Or a terminal cancer patient getting a cancer drug that could prolong her life? I think the answer is very obvious, it's the cancer drugs fund we need in Wales."

- Regarding the case of bowel cancer patient Lorraine Redmond from Cardiff, who is considering moving to England to receive life-extending drugs that have been denied to her by Cardiff & Vale NHS Trust.

The Conservatives did have a pledge for a national "Cancer Drugs Fund" in their May manifesto, and even if he gets ahead of himself sometimes, I don't think anyone can doubt his commitment to health.

A sign of consistency in policy.

"I do believe that if politicians make a commitment they should do all in their power to see the commitment through. If politicians say something and put it in writing, they should endeavour to deliver on that."

- His call for the UK Government to honour their election pledge to vote on the hunting ban.

I don't think the issue matters much to many people and personally I think a ban should remain in place. This does show he isn't afraid to stand up (or be seen to stand up) to the UK Government.

Whether he will do so in an issue that actually matters to Wales in the future remains to be seen.

I couldn't picture a Welsh Labour leader doing the same thing if Labour were in power in Westminster.

Good on him.

The Bad

On A-Level Results:

"Regrettably we are propping up the league table on A* and A grade A levels."

Getting facts wrong – check.


"Sadly, the grade levels in Wales are further behind the rest of the UK and there is a further gap between boys and girls."

Talking Wales down/"Six Nations" comparison– check. Wales outperformed some regions of England.

"It is regrettable and it does strike you almost of a former Eastern European dictator denying the obvious. [re. Leighton Andrews]"

Obligatory comparison with Cold War Europe (why oh why do the Welsh Tories keep doing this!?) – check.

"....." (as far as I know)

....on rising unemployment, and warnings that Wales could be "effectively back in recession" on the back of public spending cuts and weak economic growth at UK level.

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A new town centre for Talbot Green

The Proposal

In the 1960s-1970s, there were plans for a "new town" at Llantrisant - in the same manner as Cwmbran - and linked to Cardiff by a duel carriageway. Hansard records from 1972 show that up to £300million of public and private money was to be invested. Not a small sum in 70's money.

For whatever reason, the plans by the UK Government never went through. However, the area did develop as a key commuter "town", with no coherent strategy and piecemeal housing developments. The whole Pontyclun/Talbot Green/Llantrsiant area is a bit of a planning mess to be honest.

In the last few weeks Valad and Scarborough Developments unveiled outline proposals for a new £200million "town centre" that is hoped will provide much needed focus to the area, and provide up to 1,900 jobs. The development will include:

• A replacement store for Leekes and new supermarket
• Up to 40 other high-street stores, including at least one large department store
• 2 multi-storey car parks
• A cinema complex
• A "restaurant/cafe quarter"
• A hotel
• Apartments and townhouses
• Offices and civic facilities
• Improvements to cycling and bus facilities

Potential Issues

The site, next to Y Pant Comprehensive, is slap bang in the middle of the "new town" and would be a natural location for such a development. However welcome the jobs and development is, there are a number of concerns.

Firstly the impact on traffic. Valad and Scarborough are also involved in a mooted business park at Mwyndy Cross which has been controversial locally. Their plans there include a grade separated junction on the A4119. However, nearer the new town centre, the roads are unlikely to cope with additional traffic without further upgrades. It's an important route from the Rhondda and Ely Valleys to the M4, in addition to traffic being funnelled from Beddau and Church Village.

In addition, the new town centre is more than a mile away from Pontyclun railway station - and there's no timetable for the (proposed) reintroduction of passenger services on the railway to Beddau (planning permission is being sought to turn it into a cycle path currently). The fact there are two multi-story car parks hints that this isn't going to be a "sustainable" development, transport wise.

Also Talbot Green already has two large "big box" retail parks a stones throw from the new town centre. Lessons need to be learned from nearby Pontypridd. There's currently a redevelopment of the Taff Vale Centre as well as multi-million pound public realm improvements as part of the towns regeneration. The anchor store for the new Taff Vale Centre is...........Poundland.

I don't think it's a good sign when Poundland and anchor store are mentioned in the same sentence.

Could Talbot Green be the first new shopping development entirely housed by charity shops and pound shops? There is a critical mass needed to sustain certain chain stores and judging by the vote-of-little-confidence given to Pontypridd, who's to say it won't happen in Talbot Green?

Sign of a bigger Valleys southward shift?

Could Talbot Green actually attract the bigger chains and could this be part of an inevitable "M4-ing" of the valleys, with people and businesses in Rhondda Cynon Taf shifting southwards.

I believe that people should be "pulled" (economically) from the heads of the valleys area towards the M4. The days of bribing big foreign companies to set up a branch factory in the valleys are long over.

Instead of trying to develop the areas economy (with the exception of indigenous companies and entrepreneurship), the focus should be on quality of life, transport and a gentle depopulation in favour of larger housing developments, key economic developments and larger conurbations in the southern half of the Valleys -  places like Talbot Green, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Risca and Cwmbran/Newport. The area defined as the "Connections Corridor" in the Wales Spatial Plan.

Schemes like this hint that developers realise the trend and think they can make some money out of it. When will tub-thumping Valley politicians "get it" as well?

All in all though, an interesting development well worth keeping an eye on. I'm also slightly jealous as this is the sort of development Bridgend town centre has been crying out for for the best part of a decade. Time for a developer to raise the stakes in Bridgend methinks.

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Cardiff v Swansea : Inter-city rivalry can drive mutual prosperity

Swansea University has ambitious expansion plans that could be
worth £3billion to the economy of south west Wales
(Pic: ITV Wales Blog)

In most nations, there are rivalries between the top two cities. One will be the elder child - the "capital", whether economic or administrative. The other will be the "heart", the down to earth spirit that sums up the nation. Wales has Cardiff – the smug cosmopolitan trendy capital that can't decide if it's Welsh or not, and its sidekick Swansea – the neglected laid-back industrial "town" that encapsulates the tortured, pessimistic Welsh soul.

There are fewer more instantly recognisable lists of towns and cities in the World than the English Premier League. Defying everybody's expectations, the first Welsh club to get there wasn't from the capital, but the sidekick, less than an hour down the M4. The ultimate act of sporting one-upmanship that brought scenes of unbridled joy to Swansea City fans all over while those of Cardiff City focus intently on more "what ifs" and another season in an increasingly competitive Championship.

Unfortunately, Swansea has a big inferiority complex. It's not any politicians fault that High Street is one of the worst gateways to a city centre in the UK, or that brutalist architecture dominates the skyline. The Luftwaffe should shoulder the blame for that. Swansea has never really taken to the "city" designation mentally. This can be endearing, and foster a greater sense of community, but the moaning, like that of Swansea Council's leader, Chris Holley, in a letter to Vince Cable last year (one of the most cringe-worthy incidents by an elected official in Wales in the last decade) do little but strengthen the impression that Swansea has a big chip on its shoulder. Wales is guilty of this in general at a UK level as well.

The rivalry between Cardiff and Swansea should be a driving force for good, not enmity or jealousy. Although more dependent on big public sector employers, and still vulnerable to UK government cuts, Swansea is establishing itself as a city of brains. Swansea University is in the early stages of a new £400million campus development in partnership with BP and the Welsh Government, which will house its engineering, scientific and technical departments. It's claimed the development would be worth up to £3billion to the local economy.

In the last week, university spin-out company Haemair announced additional funding from the Welsh Government for the continued development of artificial lungs due for clinical trials in the next two years. This follows in the footsteps of other successful Swansea-based technology companies like lighting specialists Photonstar (formerly Enfis), Acuitas Medical, Allerna Therapeutics and IT companies like Small Planet Technology. They're starting small, but there's no reason they couldn't grow given the right conditions.

Swansea's natural city-region hinterland is huge, encompassing both its urban neighbour Neath Port Talbot as well as Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire and southern parts of Ceredigion and Powys. It may be mostly rural, but the population must be pushing 700,000+. Taking advantage of these large hinterlands is a challenge Swansea, Cardiff  - and to a lesser extent Newport and Wrexham - need to rise to in order to fulfill their potential.

Cardiff is using its capital status in a different way. The Porth Teigr development in Cardiff Bay hopes to make Cardiff a hub of media and creative industries - one of the sectors listed in the Economic Renewal Plan for special focus. A strong financial, property and legal services base is beginning to find a home there too - with work on Admiral Group's new HQ imminent and expansions by the likes of Capital Law, New Law and Hugh James. Property developers like JR Smart are transforming the capital's skyline. The best part is all these companies are Welsh and don't lack ambition or risk-taking. Wales is finally developing the indigenous enterprises we need to push forward into the economic big time. For the foreseeable future, most of these sorts of companies will come from, or base themselves in, Cardiff.

Both cities are specialising their economies to a large extent. Both cities, although competitors, can also readily compliment each other. This is especially true if competition moves off the football and rugby pitch and into architecture, economic development and regeneration. Trying to get one over on each other in these respects would do wonders for the Welsh economy.

I've been to both Swansea and Cardiff over the summer on (rare) sunny days. Both cities have different feels about them. Cardiff is confident, moneyed but a little bit bland and lacking definition. It feels like a American-inspired 20th century boom city like Portland or Seattle rather than a European capital.

Swansea definitely feels more "Welsh" in a south Wales sense, but were it not for the poor state of the pavement, my walk up Walter Road could easily have been San Francisco while the beach area felt stereotypically southern California - spoiled only by poor seafront architecture. I'd even go far as to argue that Swansea's dock redevelopment trumps Cardiff's. It all felt a bit more organic and coherent. Then again everything looks good in the sun!

Make no mistake, with enough will, planning and determination, Swansea will be able to look Cardiff in the eye confidently at all levels and a lot sooner than people think.

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The Dai Jones Index - Time for a Welsh Stock Exchange?

Proposals for a Welsh "regional" stock exchange have been mooted several times down the years, and reared it's head once more in the Western Mail this week. It was in the Lib Dem's manifesto for the last Assembly elections, with Jenny Randerson being a vocal proponent during the last Assembly. Earlier this year, the previous Welsh Government were offering economic research grants of up to £20,000 towards various projects - including a feasibility study for a Welsh stock exchange.

In the current economic climate, it's vital that the Welsh Government assist businesses in finding alternative ways of raising capital. The banks are seemingly neglecting their responsibilities in lending to SME's while the Economic Renewal Programme commits the Welsh Government to move away from business grants towards repayable loans – in large, the right decision.

In addition Wales also has Finance Wales - which makes commercial investments in Welsh businesses - and there's also a (rather complicated) cobweb of various schemes aimed towards entrepreneurs and business mentoring like Menter a Busnes and EU schemes such as JESSICA.

A Welsh exchange is another way that extra funds can be raised without additional burden on the state. Though it's not without its own pitfalls.

Dr Eurfyl ap Gwylim, of Principality Building Society and Plaid Cymru's economic advisor, says that it wouldn't be "at the top of his list of priorities". I tend to agree with him. There are bigger structural problems with the Welsh economy at the moment - such as those relating to infrastructure, both physical (i.e. transport) and related to business (i.e. Business rates). However there's no harm in looking at the proposal in more detail.

If we use the likes of the West Midlands regional exchange (Investbx) and the Irish Stock Exchange as template, a Welsh exchange would likely need around 50 companies on board to be viable. At the moment, on both the FTSE and AIM indices, there are only 12 Welsh companies listed.

However, if we look at Prof. Dylan Jones-Evans's Top 300, there are certainly enough medium to large companies to support an exchange with some clout, with 103 Welsh companies having an end-year turnover of £50million+ in 2010.

There is, for some reason, a reluctance amongst Welsh companies to list.

Could an exchange closer to home, readily accessible and with some government backing change that?

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Differences between Wales and England - The Higgitt Question

Over on Wales Home last week, an interesting debate broke out in the comments section of an article by Adam Jones of Blog Banw. Adam Higgitt asked an unrelated, if interesting, question.

What are the differences between Wales and England and why do they warrant a separate constitutional settlement?

Believe it or not, this is actually the short version..........get the coffee.

Political

1. Wales is a centre-left nation. England isn't "right wing" by default, just a greater predisposition to vote Conservative and more marginal seats.

Yeah, it's a lazy one. The assumption is that Wales is dominated by centre-left politics, for good or for bad. Labour effectively run a one-party dominant system over large swathes of Wales. Next you have Plaid Cymru who are ideologically to the left of Labour. Even our Conservative and Lib Dem parties are a bit closer to the centre on policy than their UK counterparts.

England swings by a larger margin towards or away from ruling parties and there are far more floating voters. Wales's elections are far more predictable and by and large, we'll vote in a centre-left majority.

Why should Wales be beholden to policies from parties we don't vote for? Devolution has answered this one to a large extent, though, of course, nationalists will argue that it should extend to every single policy area.

2. Welsh (and Scottish) nationalism is less eurosceptic than English and British nationalism.

Plaid Cymru's long-term constitutional aim is "independence within the European Union" - similarly the SNP. Far from being cave-dwelling 19^th century romantics, Welsh civic nationalism embraces cooperation at European level. There are certain to be English nationalists who share this also, of course, but there doesn't seem to be any outlet for them - except perhaps the Greens or to an extent the Liberal Democrats.

Does English Democrat, BNP or UKIP policy on international cooperation end at the English Channel? The loudest opponents of the EU seem to come from east of Offa's Dyke. Though that doesn't mean euroscepticism doesn't have a role in Welsh politics, it doesn't seem to have made much of an impact bar a single MEP and some disappointing Assembly results.

Does Wales have a different outlook on foreign policy and what our international role should be compared to the rest of the UK? The answer -if we compare it to other policy areas - is a likely yes, but we don't have avenues to express it because foreign policy isn't devolved.

3. Welsh public policy is based around equal access to public services, England's is based on choice and competition as a means to promote excellence.

This is where policy between Wales and England is diverging most, and certainly warrants a separate constitutional settlement. In a sparsely populated country like Wales, there's very little "choice" in what school or hospital you use for topographical reasons. Policies like foundation hospitals and academies would've been largely fruitless. In Wales, the onus is on providing a sustainable level of public service for everyone.

You can argue from performance data that this has led to mediocrity and complacency compared to the English system of choice, flexibility and competition. Of course, in a nation of 50million+ with large metropolitan areas (and many sparsely ones too it must be said), such policies can be made to work and can be popular. Which approach is the right one is a matter for debate.

Will the English, via the UK Government, be happy to continue subvention towards increasingly different systems from their own? The answer is probably no. This isn't in itself a case for independence or further devolution, but once more raises questions about how Wales would approach non-devolved issues based on a distinctly Welsh public policy.

Political incompatibility that has no avenue for resolution leads to escalated tension.

Socio-Economic

1. "Middle Wales" less upwardly-mobile and more public-sector oriented while "Middle England" (and the UK as a whole) is private-sector oriented and shape, rather than make, public policy.

In Wales (and some parts of England) the only stable, highly paid work has traditionally been in public sector roles such as teaching, civil service, nursing, medicine, dentistry etc. As a result, the Welsh middle class are more likely to be unionised and at the forefront of public policy at all levels.

Wales also has a "working class mythos" that's hard coded into our national story, and acts as a social leveller. In Wales, the head of government could be seen pushing a pram down Adare Street. That just doesn't happen at the UK level.

There is a distinctively Welsh "social" egalitarianism - it could even be described as a matriarchy - that doesn't exist elsewhere in the UK. There's far more consultation and far less grandstanding, which means that big projects sometimes move at depressingly slow rates compared to England.

Does this happen in England? Of course. However, the English middle class are far more likely to have jobs in the private sector, far more likely to travel in general for business and leisure and will read different newspapers, have marginally more disposable income and support different cultural events. The howls of outrage from the London cultural elite when Zaha Hadid's Opera House in Cardiff was dropped for the "parochial" Millennium Centre is an example of this difference.

They are treated more as a massive focus group rather than a group that is at the heart of policy delivery.

The bigger question is can Wales, and it's needs, ever be taken seriously at the UK's top tables when we have broadly different ideas about what sort of people should be sitting there?

Here's a question for Unionists; will someone representing a Welsh constituency ever hold one of the UK "Great Offices of State" ever again?

If the answer is no, then is the UK truly a "union" in the proper sense of the word? Is there an emerging Malay-style privilege in favour of the English or is it just a natural reaction to devolution?

If it's the latter then England will need its own constitutional settlement separate from Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland if the union is to survive in the long term.

2. The Welsh economy is based on exports and low-level manufacturing like other smaller European nations. England by itself is a global economic power with foundations built on global financial services. It's a complete mismatch and a one-size-fits-all macroeconomic policy can hurt Wales.

Wales lacks high value added jobs in business, finance and the quaternary sector. These kind of "megajobs" rarely base themselves outside of "global cities". England has several : London , Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham. Scotland has one, Edinburgh. Belfast probably sneaks in as one too.

Cardiff doesn't come close. Swansea can forget it. Absolutely anyone can set up a small business making car parts - Wales does well at this kind of thing. We're even pretty decent at energy generation, supply line processing, some specialised areas of high-technology (such as optronics, some aspects of IT and aerospace) and we are finally building a more solid financial and legal services base.

Being in a unitary state where one nation's wealth generation vastly outstrips that of the others, disproportionately makes Wales look bad for investment and as an economy - even if that's not the case on the ground. It's an unfortunate but crippling side effect. Wales will always be aiming for an economic target completely beyond our reach.

Does the UK's macroeconomic policy help the Welsh economy? Or will it always maximise tax-revenues and growth in the most productive parts (London and SE England)? Does Wales need its own macroeconomic policy - that works to our economic strengths -which are clearly different from England and by extension the UK?

3. Wales has a romanticism about a "cradle-to-grave" government role. England as a whole is much more flexible and open towards public sector reform and the rule of law is more important than "being ruled".

Wales has never been weaned off the role of big government (economically or psychologically) and the Welsh turn to government because - for some reason, perhaps born out of industrial hardships - government (whether UK, Welsh or Local) is seen as part of a grander "safety net" that protects the Welsh people from adversity (part of the working class mythos). The NHS for example, is seen as Wales' baby. Private interests in public services are met with some suspicion in Wales. It could be a legacy of past poor labour v capital relations that's integrated into Welsh history in a way not seen in England as a whole.

In England, in times of adversity the people are more likely to turn to the rule of law. The police and courts are held in higher regard than government generally. Organised labour and big capital are equally mistrusted and that means reforms to government and public services are much easier to sell to the English public than the Welsh. England doesn't have a romanticism about the government's role because they - as a nation - have never needed government as a crutch.

If there's a big problem in England, they look to the courts, inquiries etc. If there's a same problem in Wales, they'll turn to the local council, form a committee, go to an MP/AM or the relative public body.

If the view of the role of government is fundamentally different, then isn't there a need for different governments? Why create needless tensions for the sake of keeping one "symbolic" sovereign parliament?

Cultural

1. Cymraeg
Despite loan words from English, or English words that have been "Welshified", Welsh is completely different from English in almost every single way. Different alphabet, different syntax, different linguistic evolutions.

We should be proud that it's lasted thousands of years against the odds, and I believe the majority of Welsh people support the language even if they don't speak it - including myself. It's a massive part of what defines us as a nation and our shared history.

Likewise, England should be proud of English - its greatest export. It's produced some of the world's greatest literature and poetry, and provides a means of communication for billions globally.

Wales is the only officially bilingual part of the UK. That makes us very different indeed from England. Wales has two avenues of expression in addition to all the other minority languages of various immigrants down the years. That's absolutely priceless in an increasingly homogeneous US-dominated media and entertainment industry.

As Cymraeg is inherently Welsh, shouldn't Wales have the ultimate custodianship of it at all levels?

2. Wales and England have different attitudes towards high culture and sport. There are also distinctly different attitudes towards pursuing them.

Wales and rugby union. England and football. It's not as clear cut as that but there are underlying differing attitudes towards sport and culture.

Wales takes performing arts quite seriously, but less formally, compared to England. It's that old "land of song" stereotype but Wales does produce more than it's fair per-capita share of singers, actors etc. Katherine Jenkins is something of a national icon in Wales. If she were English she would probably just be another opera singer confined to Times and Guardian reviews. Performing arts in Wales are at a level playing field as long as you have the talent.

In England it does seem to be something for the middle classes and a skill that to be honed to the highest level. It goes back to the differences between attitudes to public services : equal access v competition and excellence. England doesn't really have an equivalent of the Urdd or the Eisteddfod for example, though Scotland has the Mod. England's high culture, however, if far more avant garde and cutting edge/innovative while Wales is more traditional and grounded - although that's changing.

When it comes to sport in Wales, it's about participation at the expense of elite performance. We have tons of sports clubs, spreading talent thinly - but as long as every village can put out a team, we're happy. Wales also has an enviable record of producing world-class disabled athletes.

In England, it's about excellence on an globally fair playing field. If the English football team were ranked 112^th in the World it would be a national scandal, in Wales, we tut and moan but don't do anything about it, we even accept it. It might be a different case with the rugby team of course!

Culture and sport are about projecting all that's good about England (and using England as a vehicle for the UK or Great Britain) to the World. In Wales it's about entrenching identity and belonging, maintaining a semblance of cultural difference in a top-heavy union. Wales protects. England projects. Introversion vs Extroversion. Night and day.

One thing Wales, England and the rest of the UK share is a sense of "fair play". This doesn't mean that how we approach things like culture, broadcasting and the media are the same across the UK. Seeing as Welsh culture is a more important stamp of national identity, should Wales set the political policies and priorities as a distinct nation with a distinct culture?

3. Welsh Nonconformism v Church of England

This difference in thought on one of the most basic matters – religion, probably did more to re-establish Wales as a separate nation within the UK until the creation of the Welsh Office. The Welsh Revivals also brought the Welsh language back to the heart of Welsh cultural life, shoring it up despite repeated attempts to snuff it out.

The (at the time controversial) disestablishment of the Church of England in Wales was one of the the first times since the Laws in Wales Acts and the Wales and Berwick Act that a separate "Welsh way of doing things", like the Sunday Closing Act, was formally acknowledged by the UK government, long after Scotland and Ireland.

Would this have even been considered had there not been a nonconformist Welsh Prime Minister at the time? Or would it have been "too controversial" to pass? Why should it have been when there was a clear difference between Wales and England?

Legal & Geographic

1. Wales is developing a distinct body of Welsh law.

A separate legal jurisdiction from England is unavoidable if these laws are to be enforced effectively. Wales' border will be locked in permanently, and any changes to the delivery of services will have to take place within Wales's borders, not on an "England and Wales" basis or technocratic cross-border super-regions.

2. Wales and England need different approaches to climate change and the environment based on geography, climate, their relative economies and topography.

One of the areas devolution in Wales can point to some significant success is the environment.

In Wales, there isn't an immediate threat from rising sea levels or coastal flooding (with a few very obvious exceptions). Likewise, Wales' more maritime and upland climate makes drought a much lesser concern than some parts of England. You can even argue - as Rhodri Morgan once did rather ham-fistedly - that climate change could, to a certain degree, benefit Wales in terms of agriculture and tourism. Personally I'd rather not live in that world.

In Wales the environmental policy emphasis should be (and largely is) on better management and stewardship - for example : reducing carbon emissions from industry, reducing waste, public responsibility and more renewable energy. Being a net-exporter of electricity, Wales can help England go some way to meeting its own targets, but only if Wales has control over it and aims to meet the Welsh Government's own ambitions. Similarly for other natural resources.

England has several more deeper and fundamental issues that don't get anywhere near the attention they deserve : overcrowding in the south east, drought and pressure on resources (again largely in the south east). Also along the east coast of England in particular, issues such as coastal erosion and coastal flooding on a scale far beyond that of Wales. In addition, being an energy importer brings into question the security of those supplies.

Flooding and extreme weather in general is another big environmental concern that affects Wales and England equally, but Wales has a landscape and geography far better equipped to deal with significant rainfall changes than England on the surface of it.

There's a chance for mutually beneficial cooperation on the environment in a post-devolution (or post-independence) world, but it will have to be on a government to government, equal-to-equal basis.

3. Wales has an east-west divide, England has a north-south divide.

Based largely on topography and a "extractive" transport network, Wales is divided along east-west axis rather than north-south. The eastern half of Wales (Powys, Deeside, coastal Gwent, Cardiff and the M4 corridor) are the wealthier areas containing the economic "powerhouses" while the west contains the sparsely populated parts of Wales and the de-industrialised Valleys. It mirrors perfectly the EU's NUTS2 area for Wales.

England's situation is far more complicated. There are northern areas that are major regional centres - such as Manchester and Leeds - likewise there are areas in the south that are economically deprived - like some inner-city London boroughs and coastal towns like Hastings.

There's a clear and growing gap between the north and south in England, with no real attempt to close it, leading to the overheating of the south east and London. The regions of England are on their own by and large and this has led to a few successes but nothing to close the gap in any real terms.

In Wales however, there have been decades-long attempts to bridge the "east-west" gap - from EU funding through to social programmes and transport projects. It comes down once again to Welsh equal access v English competition and excellence. It's seen as a failure in Wales if a region - for example Ceredigion - cannot access the same services or economic opportunities as Cardiff, however unsustainable that might be. In England it's more about spreading prosperity out from successful areas - for example enterprise zones and high-speed rail. Clearly different approaches to a similar problem.

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