The In-Out EU Referendum Bill

Forty years since the last time the question was put to the public,
the UK is to be asked whether to remain a member of the EU.
(Pic : The Telegraph)

Last Thursday, the UK Government introduced a Bill setting out the arrangements for the forthcoming  referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union.

A summary of the details of the Bill (pdf) is as follows :

• The exact date of the referendum will be determined by regulations, but it must take place before 31^st December 2017. This means there's a chance the referendum could be held in 2016.
• The question on the ballot paper will be "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?"
• People entitled to vote in UK parliamentary elections will be eligible to vote in the referendum (so the franchise won't be extended to 16-17 year olds, unlike the Scottish independence referendum).
• Gibraltarians will have a right to vote in the referendum as if it were a part of the UK.
• Only UK, Commonwealth and Irish residents who are registered to vote will be able to vote in the referendum.
• It appears as though the referendum results will be counted (at least partially) on an EU Parliament constituencies/regions basis, meaning Welsh results could be counted and declared separately.
• The Referendum Bill doesn't require the consent of the devolved administrations.

There are also numerous provisions relating to campaign finances, referendum broadcasts, loans, financial declarations etc. which are, to be honest, far too technical and boring for me to go into any great detail but will inevitably turn out to be important.

You put your left-wing in, your right-wing out....

Could Welsh voters be faced with four ballot papers and three different electoral systems next May?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

The question is as clear and unambiguous as it can be : Vote yes if you want the UK to stay in the EU, vote no to leave. As proven by the Scottish referendum last year, the "affirmative choice" doesn't always have an advantage, though the status quo usually does. I would be surprised if the wording of the question changes as the Bill goes through Westminster.

The second major issue is "What renegotiated deal will David Cameron secure from the EU?" The diplomatic manoeuvring has already begun, with the Prime Minister touring European capitals to speak to heads of government - part gloating, part "I'm going to take my ball home". He has the mandate to do it though.

I'd imagine repatriation of powers over working practices (the working time directive, maternity & paternity pay etc.), welfare rights for EU citizens moving to the UK and immigration will be top of the list. Also, I suspect the Conservatives will want to curb the power of the EU Parliament's directives, with greater ability for national legislatures to say "non".

Will that be enough to satisfy "soft eurosceptics" – people who reluctantly support a renegotiated EU membership but could be swayed to vote no? If it is, the yes vote could win reasonably comfortably. The devil's in the detail though and if Cameron can't get a strong set of concessions, then maybe things will be closer run than they're currently projected to be.

The more serious issue is the disenfranchisement of EU citizens living in the UK. The only EU citizens who will be able to vote (if registered) are the Irish, Maltese and Cypriots – Ireland because of the Common Travel Area, Malta and Cyprus because they're Commonwealth members. So someone from Australia, Canada or New Zealand with the right paperwork will be able to vote on the UK's membership of the EU; someone from Germany, Poland, France or the Netherlands won't be able to.

An issue that's emerging in Wales - aside from the In-Out debate itself - is the referendum's timing : Will it take place at the same time as the 2016 National Assembly election? (More from Glyn Mathias at Click on Wales) I presume as soon as David Cameron can get a "deal" (which could even happen by the end of this year) the date will be set.

So far, the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru have spoken out against a same-day referendum with Carwyn Jones joining them. UKIP are the only party who currently support a same-day referendum, though I suspect the Tories will support it too.

There's an argument that holding three polls on the same day (the Police & Crime Commissioner elections are due on the same day too) would save money and boost turnout for the Assembly and PCC elections – the referendum would easily get 50-60% on its own.

Likewise, you can counter-argue that the issues in the Assembly election (health, education, economic development) are too important to be drowned out by a referendum debate or the complete pointlessness of PCCs. The referendum will dominate political coverage across the UK as, aside from PCCs and Greater London, it'll be the only ballot paper issued in England.

It's worth remembering that the 2011 Assembly election was held at the same time as the Alternative Vote referendum and didn't cause any problems. It's insulting the intelligence of the electorate to think they can't handle four ballot papers. The problem is all of them will use a different system (PCCs are elected by supplementary vote, the Assembly uses both first past the post and the additional member system/D'Hondt method).

One of the reasons I might lean towards favouring a same-day poll is selfish. I pencilled in quitting blogging after the 2016 Assembly election, or at the very least taking an extended break. If an EU referendum takes place in late 2016 or 2017, I'll end up hanging around longer than I would otherwise like to, as it's a more significant constitutional question than the 2011 Assembly law-making powers one. I consider it a step down from an independence referendum, while UKIP and other pro-withdrawal campaigners probably will consider it an independence referendum.

Also, if it's held the same day, it'll (essentially) be down to AMs to make the argument for or against EU membership as they'll be the ones in the political spotlight. Turning EU membership into an election issue in 2016 will really lift the game in terms of the quality of debate required from the Welsh parties and their leaders, and we could finally see the National Assembly mature a little bit.