The Beast - Programme for Government Report 2015

As promised.....

On Tuesday (16^th June), the First Minister unveiled the 2015 annual progress report on the Programme for Government – a set of indicators used to measure whether the Welsh Government are delivering on their 2011 manifesto commitments. It's the final progress report before the 2016 National Assembly election.

As this is what the Welsh Government want you to judge them on, it's only fair that someone reproduces what they claim to be successes (or failures) because they have no life and are destined to rot alone slowly in a cold universe are determined to go beyond the call of duty to provide a public service.

For those of you who haven't been reading this blog since the start, the first annual report was (infamously) 666 pages long, and Carwyn Jones is a known Iron Maiden fan. Hence I've dubbed this annual fun and games "The Beast" – the political anorak equivalent of an ironman triathlon.

Fortunately, all of the statistics are now published on a tablet-friendly website (here).

"Can this still be real or just some crazy dream?"

For the sake of brevity, I'll just focus on what the party leaders said.

In his statement to the National Assembly, the First Minister said the report (clip) allowed everyone to "take stock of the big picture", showing the "overwhelming record of this government is one of delivery". He described it as the "most ambitious and comprehensive government programme since devolution", whereby 95% of commitments have been delivered or on track for delivery. He pointed to levels of satisfaction with NHS services and highest levels of inward investment for decades, adding that the Wellbeing of Future Generations Act 2015 would provide "building blocks for better society" in the long-term.

Leader of the Opposition, Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central), said that despite the First Minister's emphasis on delivery (clip), his delivery unit wasn't mentioned. He argued there was a lack of focus on outcomes, pointing towards long waiting times, "appalling" ambulance response times and criticism of literacy and numeracy standards. He added that the Welsh Government had "given up on rural Wales" as there was little mention of rural affairs despite current massive reforms in agriculture.

Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood AM (Plaid, South Wales Central), was concerned about the usefulness of the report (clip), criticising the timing of the announcement as AMs had little chance to scrutinise it, and saying it was "telling" that "it needs to be stated that a government is delivering its manifesto". Leanne said the report doesn't fully reflect problems in the NHS, like Tawel Fan, while using out of date GDP data from 2012 doesn't help either – a point the First Minister conceded.

Welsh Lib Dem leader, Kirsty Williams AM (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor), described the report as a "500-page doorstop that landed on her desk" (clip), repeating concerns on the publication timing and out of date data. These factors made them (AMs) "all a bit more sceptical". Kirsty focused on education; according to the government, everything in education is on track while Estyn have said standards in primary schools have declined – people can either take the government's word for it or the inspectorate's. She added that NHS workers wouldn't recognise what was said in the report, describing suggestions that the Welsh Government have delivered on dementia care as "staggering".

"Hell and fire was spawned to be released"

(Pic : via wikipedia)

As in 2013, I'm only going to note indicators which have noticeably changed one way or another over the previous year. The definition of "notably changed" is subjective, so "statistically significant change" might be a more appropriate way to describe it.

The indicators themselves have changed again. The explanation is that as new policies are developed, the programme is updated to properly monitor those policies. However, it also makes it harder to compare year-to-year changes. If this is going to work, the powers that be need to stick to indicators throughout an Assembly term and not attempt to "shift the goalposts".

Getting Better

Culture & Heritage

• The value of tourism spending at Cadw sites increased from £4.86million in 2013 to £5.28million in 2014.
• There were an extra 48,000 visits to Cadw monuments in 2014 compared to 2013.
• An extra 9 libraries were refurbished under CyMAL between 2013 and 2014.
• An extra 3,848 hours of work experience and training were provided by heritage bodies in 2014 compared to 2013.
• The number of free swims by over-16s rose by ~53,000 between 2012 and 2013.
• The percentage of the population from under-represented groups attending arts events rose to 66.8% from 63.9% in 2013.
• An extra ~98,300 people participated in outreach events by heritage bodies in 2014 – nearly trebling the 2013 figures.
• There were an extra 153,000 adults actively involved in sports coaching/volunteering in 2012 compared to 2008.

Economy & Transport

• The percentage of 19-24 year olds not in work, education or training fell by 1.7% between 2013 and 2014 (21.2%).
• An extra ~1,000 businesses have access to superfast broadband as a result of Superfast Cymru.
• The percentage of households with access to superfast broadband rose by 10% between 2013 and 2014 (58%), but still remain significantly behind the rest of the UK.
• Primary income per capita rose fom 88.1% of the UK average to 90% between 2012 and 2013 (excluding London and SE England).
• There were around 450,000 extra rail journeys in Wales in 2013 compared to 2012.
• The percentage of trunk roads requiring maintenance fell from 14.3% to 10.2% between 2013 and 2014.
• The percentage of workless households relative to the rest of the UK fell to 115.2% (UK=100%) in 2013 from 118.7% in 2012.
• The number of people benefiting from Skills Growth Wales rose from 4,649 in 2013 to 8,060 in 2014.
• An extra ~377,000 passengers used the TrawsCymru bus service in 2014 compared to 2013.

Education & Schools

• The percentage of working age adults holding an equivalent of 5 A*-C grade GCSEs rose by 2% between 2013 and 2014 and now matches England (78%).
• The percentage of working age adults holding an equivalent of two A-levels rose by 2% between 2013 and 2014 (58%).
• The percentage of working age adults holding a degree-level qualification rose by 3% between 2013 and 2014 (36%).
• The percentage of children with special educational needs meeting the Level 2 threshold at Key Stage 2 rose from 53.1% to 57.7%.
• The percentage of the Welsh population with no formal qualifications fell from 9.6% in 2013 to 8.9% in 2014. For the first time ever, white people are more likely to lack formal qualifications than ethnic minorities.
• The percentage of children achieving expected outcomes at the end of Foundation Phase rose by 2.2% in 2013 (85.2%).
• The number of 15 year olds achieving the Level 2 threshold at Key Stage 4 (5 A*-C grade GCSEs) rose by 2.7% in 2014 (55.4%).
• KS2 and KS4 results for looked-after children have improved, but remain significantly below the Welsh average.
• The post-16 "staying on" rate rose from 79.7% to 82.2% between 2013 and 2012.

Environment

• The percentage of electricity generated from renewables rose by 0.9% between 2012 and 2013, but is the lowest percentage of the home nations (10.1%).
• Gas sales fell by 455kWh per consumer between 2012 and 2013.
• The percentage of municipal waste recycled rose from 52.3% in 2012 to 54.3% in 2013 – the highest recycling rate in the UK.
• The percentage of rivers and lakes achieving a good ecological status rose to 40.6% in 2014 compared to 36.3% in 2013.
• The number of business signed up to the Welsh Government's Sustainable Development Charter rose from 204 in Q4 2013 to 297 in Q4 2014.
• An estimated 8,700 tonnes of carbon emissions have been reduced through regeneration investment in 2014 compared to 1,440 tonnes in 2013.
• An extra 24,000 hectares of woodland was being managed to UK Forest Standard in 2014 compared to 2013.

Equality, Housing, Communities & Poverty

• The number of adult service users receiving direct payments rose by 612 between 2013 and 2012.
• The percentage of children seen alone by social workers rose to 42.9% in 2013, compared to 37.5% in 2012.
• The number of delayed transfers due to choice of care home has fallen to its lowest recorded level (93 in April 2015, compared to 126 in April 2014).
• An extra 392 homes were completed in 2013 (5,843) compared to 2012 (5,451).
• 67.4% of social homes met the quality standard in 2013 compared to 60.3% in 2012.
• An extra 7,743 children were benefiting from Flying Start in 2013 compared to 2012.
• The percentage of looked-after children with more than three placements in a year fell from 10% in 2012 to 8% in 2013.
• There was a 1.7% rise in the number of home care clients receiving 20 or more hours of care per week between 2013 and 2012.
• An extra 374 affordable homes were completed in 2013 compared to 2012.
• An extra 1,191 empty homes were brought back into use by local authorities in 2013 compared to 2012.
• An extra 12 traveller sites were refurbished in 2014 compared to 2013.
• Women were paid 93.3% the average male wage in 2014, compared to 91.7% in 2013.
• An extra 6,100 people were using credit unions in 2014 (78,600) compared to 2013 (72,500).

Health

• The number of alcohol-related deaths fell from 504 to 467 between 2012 and 2013.
• 97% of GP practices offer appointments between 17:30 and 18:30 in 2014 compared to 95% in 2013 and 92% in 2011.
• The percentage of adults who smoke has fallen from 23% in 2012 to 20% in 2014.
• The percentage of adults who report drinking above the daily recommended allowance has fallen from 42% in 2013 to 40% in 2013.
• In 2014, the number of healthcare-acquired infections is about half the level of 2011.
• The number of emergency admissions for chronic conditions fell over 2014.
• Teenage conception rates per 1,000 people fell from 30.8 in 2012 to 27.3 in 2013.
• MMR vaccination rates rose to 96.5% in 2013 – the highest rate of the home nations.

Rural Affairs

• Employment rates in rural areas rose by 0.8% to 71% in 2014 and remain higher than the all-Wales average.
• The percentage of rural households with access to superfast broadband rose to 58% in 2013 compared to 6% in 2012.

Safety

• The number of recorded domestic abuse incidents fell by more than 6,200 between 2012 and 2013.
• Youth offending rates have fallen from 1,734 incidents to 1,275 incidents in 2013.
• An extra 2,650 callers were supported by the domestic abuse hotline in 2013 compared to 2012.
• 504 PCSOs were deployed by 2014, exceeding the extra 500 manifesto commitment.
• Recorded crime at railway stations fell from 1,152 incidents in 2013 to 1,028 in 2014.
• An extra ~11,500 homes are covered by no cold calling zones in 2014 compared to 2013.

Getting Worse

Culture & Heritage

• The number of visits to Cadw sites fell by 500,000 between 2012 and 2013.
• The percentage of historical sites in stable condition fell to 71.7% in 2014 from 78.7% in 2013.
• There were 121,000 fewer visits to the National Museum in 2013 compared to 2012.
• The number of learning visits to Cadw sites fell by around 7,000 between 2013 and 2014.
• The number of free public swims by under-16s fell by ~17,500 between 2012 and 2013.

Economy & Transport

• The difference in the employment rate of Wales compared to the UK rose from -1.46% to -4.12% over 2014 (employment rates have gotten worse in Wales).
• There were a million fewer bus journeys in Wales in 2013 compared to 2012.
• The number of people killed on Welsh roads rose from 1,144 in 2013 to 1,263 in 2014.
• The number of additional jobs created by regeneration programmes fell to 763 in 2014 from 886 in 2013.
• The value of contract opportunities through Sell2Wales fell between 2012 and 2011.
• The number of people benefiting from Jobs Growth Wales fell by 1,298 between 2014 and 2013.
• The number of apprenticeship opportunities through Young Recruits fell from 5,427 to 2,104 between 2013 and 2014.
• The number of Category 1 defects on trunk roads rose consistently over 2013.
• The amount of additional infrastructure investment through regeneration fell from £61.6million in 2013 to £21.1million in 2014.
• The number of jobs created through regeneration investment fell to 315 from 588 between 2013 and 2014.
• The number of people benefiting from the European Social Fund fell from 2,628 in 2013 to 337 in 2014.

Education & Schools

• The percentage of educational maintenance allowance (EMA) recipients going on to higher education fell by 1.8% between 2011 and 2012 (31%).
• The percentage of primary schools rated as good or excellent by Estyn fell by 4% between 2013 and 2012.
• The attainment gap between pupils who receive school meals and others widened by 1.1% between 2013 and 2012.

Environment

• Total greenhouse gas emissions rose by around 2.2million tonnes between 2011 and 2012.
• 7 fewer communities had a community flood plan in 2014 compared to 2013.
• 15 fewer green spaces achieved a green flag award in 2014 compared to 2013.

Equality, Housing, Communities & Poverty

• The percentage of homes assessed as having at least one hazard rose by 2.1% between 2012 and 2013.

Health

• The prevalence of problematic drug use has risen from 2% in 2011 to 2.8% in 2013.
• The number of delayed transfers of care are higher in 2015 than 2014.
• The percentage of patients waiting less than 26 weeks for referral to treatment fell through 2014 from 87.9% to 84.3%.
• The percentage of ambulances meeting the 8 minute Category A response target fell sharply though 2014 (but recovered sharply at the beginning of 2015).
• The number of postponed admissions rose sharply in 2015, and in January 2015 were significantly higher than at any point previously.
• Uptake of seasonal flu vaccines by over-65s (68.3%) is significantly lower than the rest of the UK.

Rural Affairs

• The percentage of direct payments made on time to farmers fell to 94% in 2014 compared to 97% in 2012.

Safety

• There were 145 more recorded hate crimes in 2013 compared to 2012.
• There were 493 more recorded sexual crimes in 2013 compared to 2012.
• The percentage of adults who've experience anti-social behaviour rose by 3% between 2012 and 2013.
• The success rate for prosecutions for violence against women fell to 76.7% in 2013 compared to 78.1% in 2012.
• The number of fires in Wales rose to 42.7 per 10,000 people in 2013 from 37.2 per 10,000 in 2012.
• The death rate from fires rose slightly between 2012 and 2013.