The Home Builders Federation estimated earlier in the year that there are 100,000 Welsh families on waiting lists for housing, and that as much as £30,000 was required as deposit for a home.
People without adequate housing will become people without families who will eventually live in a society where dependents outnumber the working age population (Andrew Rawnsley going into more depth in The Observer today). The impact of artificially high house prices, limited social housing supply and the subsequent lack of workforce mobility because of it will become demographic, social, health and economic problems in the future unless the matter is addressed.
In March 2011, ONS statistics showed that the Welsh average house price was £155,393. This is near 6 times the Welsh average salary of £26,832. It illustrates the herculean task first time buyers (FTBs) have to get a foot on the property ladder. Your average Welsh 25-35 year old is unlikely to be earning anywhere near £26,832, and all things point towards as downward trend here as higher-paying roles in the public sector are cut back and inflation - combined with moribund saving rates - eat away at wages regardless of where they are earned.
The housing market is a pyramid scheme to a certain extent. It needs people entering at the bottom to enable those above to move towards the top. No first time buyers, no housing market (in theory). In Wales we have the added complication of second home owners and "good lifers" willing to buy expensive rural properties which keeps a housing market alive that would otherwise be dead.
If the housing market becomes a closed shop between the property owning middle age, middle classes and downsizers then it will be a generational betrayal of epic proportions. Sustained house price falls are a good thing.
So how can Wales ease the pressure?
Build houses in sustainable locations.
Despite the good intentions of Cardiff Council's desire to build exclusively on brownfield sites, people should be pulled from the Valleys not pushed there. Likewise, large towns and cities elsewhere in Wales should be the focus of development - not small villages like Bodelwyddan. People should live as close to transport links or jobs themselves as possible. Wales lacks agglomeration, and that holds back our economy and probably stunts us socially and culturally too.
As an example of the latter, if Welsh is to survive as a first language it needs to be spoken by the young and young families. That means more starter homes in the larger Welsh-speaking towns of Y Fro. What better deterrent to second home ownership than towns full of rowdy young Welsh- speakers doing the sort of things young people enjoy?
Prefabricated, modular and self-build housing.
A popular solution to housing problems post World War II. The technology has changed however and the pre-fab housing of the 21st Century is a lot easier on the eye than back then. If the supply chain is local or regional - and if the major house builders can come up with imaginative designs - then it could be one way to increase supply, reduce cost and boost manufacturing in one swoop.
How about laying the utilities and roads on patches of land, and selling plots off for self build or to a cooperative group of individuals? Ashley Vale in Bristol is an example of such a development.
Self-build houses don't always have to be cock-sure, grandiose (and presumably expensive) architectural statements of course.
A national points system for social housing allocation.
It makes sense that while supply of social housing is limited, it's rationed accordingly.
Those prioritised for social housing should be : smaller families in low paid employment, those with a strong local connection, carers and their dependents, Armed Forces families and those moving for employment purposes.
Those at the back of the list could include : workless households, people with dependency issues who are not actively seeking treatment and the unemployed with no local connection.
Longer term private tenancies.
It's been brought up in the media recently and long-term rent agreements are common on mainland Europe. Private landlords should be legally obliged to offer long-term rent arrangements to tenants who have been living in the same home, with no problems/arrears, for a probationary period i.e 6 months.
Some sort of "rent stabiliser", a formula/guide to how much someone should ideally be paying in rent in an area, to ensure tenants are not being ripped off by their landlords might be also an idea.
Bring abandoned housing stock back into use
Instead of endless houses of multiple occupation (HMOs), those sturdy Victorian stone terraces Wales is famous for, should once again become family homes or 1-2 bed apartments. Incentives by local and national government to encourage developers and housing associations to regenerate abandoned or under-utilised housing should be encouraged.
New home building is a messy and mostly environmentally costly process, so using old and abandoned housing and retrofitting them to modern environmental standards is one small contribution to reducing our carbon footprint.
People without adequate housing will become people without families who will eventually live in a society where dependents outnumber the working age population (Andrew Rawnsley going into more depth in The Observer today). The impact of artificially high house prices, limited social housing supply and the subsequent lack of workforce mobility because of it will become demographic, social, health and economic problems in the future unless the matter is addressed.
In March 2011, ONS statistics showed that the Welsh average house price was £155,393. This is near 6 times the Welsh average salary of £26,832. It illustrates the herculean task first time buyers (FTBs) have to get a foot on the property ladder. Your average Welsh 25-35 year old is unlikely to be earning anywhere near £26,832, and all things point towards as downward trend here as higher-paying roles in the public sector are cut back and inflation - combined with moribund saving rates - eat away at wages regardless of where they are earned.
The housing market is a pyramid scheme to a certain extent. It needs people entering at the bottom to enable those above to move towards the top. No first time buyers, no housing market (in theory). In Wales we have the added complication of second home owners and "good lifers" willing to buy expensive rural properties which keeps a housing market alive that would otherwise be dead.
If the housing market becomes a closed shop between the property owning middle age, middle classes and downsizers then it will be a generational betrayal of epic proportions. Sustained house price falls are a good thing.
So how can Wales ease the pressure?
Build houses in sustainable locations.
Despite the good intentions of Cardiff Council's desire to build exclusively on brownfield sites, people should be pulled from the Valleys not pushed there. Likewise, large towns and cities elsewhere in Wales should be the focus of development - not small villages like Bodelwyddan. People should live as close to transport links or jobs themselves as possible. Wales lacks agglomeration, and that holds back our economy and probably stunts us socially and culturally too.
As an example of the latter, if Welsh is to survive as a first language it needs to be spoken by the young and young families. That means more starter homes in the larger Welsh-speaking towns of Y Fro. What better deterrent to second home ownership than towns full of rowdy young Welsh- speakers doing the sort of things young people enjoy?
Prefabricated, modular and self-build housing.
A popular solution to housing problems post World War II. The technology has changed however and the pre-fab housing of the 21st Century is a lot easier on the eye than back then. If the supply chain is local or regional - and if the major house builders can come up with imaginative designs - then it could be one way to increase supply, reduce cost and boost manufacturing in one swoop.
How about laying the utilities and roads on patches of land, and selling plots off for self build or to a cooperative group of individuals? Ashley Vale in Bristol is an example of such a development.
Self-build houses don't always have to be cock-sure, grandiose (and presumably expensive) architectural statements of course.
A national points system for social housing allocation.
It makes sense that while supply of social housing is limited, it's rationed accordingly.
Those prioritised for social housing should be : smaller families in low paid employment, those with a strong local connection, carers and their dependents, Armed Forces families and those moving for employment purposes.
Those at the back of the list could include : workless households, people with dependency issues who are not actively seeking treatment and the unemployed with no local connection.
Longer term private tenancies.
It's been brought up in the media recently and long-term rent agreements are common on mainland Europe. Private landlords should be legally obliged to offer long-term rent arrangements to tenants who have been living in the same home, with no problems/arrears, for a probationary period i.e 6 months.
Some sort of "rent stabiliser", a formula/guide to how much someone should ideally be paying in rent in an area, to ensure tenants are not being ripped off by their landlords might be also an idea.
Bring abandoned housing stock back into use
Instead of endless houses of multiple occupation (HMOs), those sturdy Victorian stone terraces Wales is famous for, should once again become family homes or 1-2 bed apartments. Incentives by local and national government to encourage developers and housing associations to regenerate abandoned or under-utilised housing should be encouraged.
New home building is a messy and mostly environmentally costly process, so using old and abandoned housing and retrofitting them to modern environmental standards is one small contribution to reducing our carbon footprint.
