America decides

The polls close in the US Presidential election tonight. If I'm honest, I don't really care who wins, and only Americans need be concerned. Non-Americans getting worked up into a lather over it is rather amusing in my opinion. Obviously the best way to express that is to look at it in detail, because I'm a hypocrite, even if there are far more important stories in Wales at the moment. I'll probably return to that story once the picture's clearer.

I understand how the American political system works. The politics though, I don't get at all. Maybe it's a symptom of the "God, gays 'n' guns" stuff that European media outlets like to pick up on to make us feel more civilised and cultured. Then you realise we have UKIP, Nadine Dorries, Western Mail comments and Carmarthenshire Council.

Overview

Let's get the little people out of the way first.

I'm surprised the idiosyncratic Ron Paul didn't launch a campaign as an Independent. He might've taken some votes from Romney, especially from basement-dwelling Ayn Rand fans.

The Libertarian Party will probably become increasingly popular down the years, but they'll have problems trying to represent both anarcho-capitalists and the libertarian-socialists. The Green Party and newly-formed Justice Party are the only hope for European-style social democrats who can't find a home in the Democratic Party.

Ultimately though, it still is, and will be for the foreseeable future, a two-horse race between the Democrats and Republicans. Sherlock Holmes, eat your heart out.

I think it's worth, as a thought exercise, trying to position Wales as a US state:

• The economy of a Rust Belt state like Ohio or Michigan
• The relative poverty and cost of living of Alabama
• The liberalism and climate of the Oregon coast
• The stereotypes of Wisconsin - For cheese/cows, see sheep. For snow/cold, see rain. For the Packers, see rugby.
• As culturally distinct as Hawaii.
• The demographics of Florida
• As much political clout (within the UK) as West Virginia

How has Barack Obama performed?

From a "global" perspective, Obama - and crucially Hillary Clinton - have done a reasonable job. You can point to the reaction to the Arab Spring (which has been measured and responsible), Bin Laden's death, holding back Israeli trigger fingers and keeping Iran (for now) in its box.

You could argue his weaknesses have been the excessive use of drones and extra-judicial assassinations, his failure to close Guantanamo Bay and the troop surge in Afghanistan. He's also avoided stepping on Chinese or Russian toes in matters of global importance – perhaps when he should've - and a quiet reluctance to work with European leaders (I don't blame him!).

Domestically, you can point to a moderate economic recovery. His interventionist policies helped prevent the American car industry going pop (Dubya needs credit too, to be fair). Unemployment is falling – but not as fast as he might like. His economic stimulus plan doesn't seem to have really produced the "big bang" needed. It seems a bit "kick the can", and the amount of quantitative easing should be a concern.

The jury's out on whether Obama's $1trillion+ stimulus
package has actually worked.
(Pic : Time Magazine)

There are other issues – repeal of "don't ask, don't tell" in the US military, investment in broadband, high-speed rail, new space vehicles and reforms of Wall Street practices. The big domestic policy though, has to be his health reforms.

I don't know why, but many Americans don't seem fond of the idea of universal healthcare. Obama's reforms tightened regulations, put more responsibility on insurers and enabled poorer Americans to get some sort of health insurance. The US actually spends more, per head, on healthcare than many countries with a universal healthcare system, but has lower life expectancies. It seems that rugged individualism doesn't extend to looking after your own health.

So, he hasn't done a bad job, but change this ain't. I think he promised too much in 2008 – perhaps inadvertently – and hasn't delivered the glorious new dawn many Americans expected. And yes, although the aura's burst, he's still pretty charismatic and likable.

Possible Outcomes

US Presidential elections are overhyped. Real political power in the US rests with Congress. But they're important, as I see it, for at least three main reasons : the economy, defence and the US as leader of "Western" foreign policy. Economy aside, none of this impacts on Wales as we don't enjoy a formal relationship with the US.

Barack Obama Second Term

Presumably, he's going to want to continue things as they are. The economy is recovering – albeit slowly. He's passed his healthcare reforms. I don't think he's really offered very much other than "more of the same". Is that enough for the US electorate? He's been accused of being partisan, but practically every major reform or legislation he's passed has had bi-partisan approval.

I think if the result is close, he's going to turn his attention whole scale on the economy. But he's used many options there already. I doubt he'll get away with a second stimulus, and the Republicans will probably try to block any raising of the debt ceiling as happened last year.

I doubt hawkish Israelis will be pleased if Obama wins - chances of a strike against Iran with US support will be distant. I doubt we'll see any movement there until after the Knesset elections next year. But if Benjamin Netanyahu can form a government, then it's going to cause a headache for an Obama administration. He'll (Netanyahu) likely say he'll have a mandate to "protect Israelis" etc. and I don't think he'll wait for talks – which is what I imagine Obama would want.

I actually think, if Obama wins, the chances of unilateral Israeli military action would increase, especially if Netanyahu (should he still be Israeli Prime Minister) thinks he's being backed into a corner with few options left.

Mitt Romney Presidency

I think he's in danger of making the same mistakes as the W.Bush administration. He opposes regulation, supports tax cuts and broadly, supports austerity. He might have a point, as I noted earlier, that Obama's stimulus hasn't worked. Americans, I suspect, will be more willing to vote for the person who'll put more money back in their pocket – hence why the polls are close.

That might lead to temporary economic growth – which might boost production from American companies in Wales. But the underlying structural problems are likely to remain : too much debt (at national and state level – like California), property price inflation, weak consumer confidence and in the US's case, disproportionate defence spending and a huge trade deficit.

On the environment, Mitt was – for a Republican – quite "green". He acknowledged climate change, and supported things like energy conservation. But as you might expect, he now supports the expansion of US domestic oil production, and subsidies for oil companies.

He seems keen on the "Special Relationship", but it remains to be seen what "we" make of it after the Olympic gaffes. Whoever wins will be toadied, regardless. It's tradition for a UK Prime Minister to be the prime ring-kisser.

Iran, and the continuing Arab Spring fallout, are likely
to be the main foreign policy  concerns for the
incoming President - whoever that may be.
(Pic : The Guardian)

I doubt mainland Europe will be as eagre. Maybe things would've been different had Sarkozy remained French President. I doubt his views that China "steals American jobs" will do much to boost Sino-American relations either. But both sides know it's a symbiotic relationship.

Despite the rhetoric, I doubt Romney, deep down, wants an Israeli strike on Iran. I think we'll see tougher sanctions, and perhaps ultimatums, to get Iran to stop enriching uranium. The Israelis might be satisfied with that, as long as they know they'll have a president "on their side". Iran is suffering economically, and if the pressure is turned up, it might prompt change from within.

The US will probably become a bit more standoffish, a bit more paranoid about "threats" closer to home, such as Venezuela. Guantanamo Bay will probably remain open.

It'll be domestic issues that make or break Romney. I think he'll meet stiff resistance to proposed abortion reforms. We'll probably see pushes towards greater internet censorship – in particular pornography. I actually think he'll keep many, if not all, of the Obama health reforms, as he passed similar legislation as Massachusetts Governor. I wouldn't be surprised if the US Congress (if both houses have Republican majorities) bind him by trying to repeal them.

A lot's been said about Ann Romney's Welsh origins. She's a "Bridgend girl" even, her father coming from Caerau. Ann would be the "most Welsh" person, as a second generation immigrant, in the White House since the likes of Thomas Jefferson. That could do wonders for Welsh profile in the US which, let's face it, has never been great.

But Hillary Clinton has Welsh blood too, and to be frank, I think most Welsh people would – politically – prefer her to still be there as Secretary of State in the end.

Predictions

That's pretty much how I see it going....
(Pic : Mercury News)

I'm bad at predictions, so best stop reading now.

I think Obama will win a second term. Using this, I have Obama 290 – 248 Romney – identical to The Simpsons prediction. The polls have shifted just enough in the last few days in key states to push Obama over the line. I predict Romney winning Florida & Virginia but Obama winning the likes of Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado – perhaps by less that 1-2% in some cases. I think the popular vote will be very, very close.

I suspect the Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives and the Democrats will retain control of the Senate. So, as you were.