Housing London

Harlow, Essex  - one of many  "new towns" built to cope with London's population growth.
Due to decades of short-sightedness by Westminster,  it looks like Wales
is about to become home to evacuees in a new wave of "expulsions".
(Pic : Wikipedia)

In the last few weeks, it's been revealed that London's local authorities are planning to purchase houses across EnglandandWales, to "temporarily" move people out of the Imperial Capital, once stricter housing benefit reforms come into force. More on this at : Jac o' the North, National Left, Borthlas and Valleys Mam.

One local authority highlighted as a refugee camp is Merthyr Tydfil. I presume any local authority with access to the M4 and South Wales Mainline will be seen as suitable, though it remains to be seen if other local authorities will be drafted.

And let's face it, similar things have been happening for some time, especially along the north Wales coast. If it's good enough for Scousers, Mancs and Brummies, then it's good enough for Londoners too. There's nothing (AFAIK) Welsh local authorities, or the Welsh Government, can do to prevent another local authority in another part of the state buying up cheap, empty housing stock.

People migrate back and forth across national, and sub-national, borders all the time. Usually, that's for employment reasons. People moving for work makes sense, because they can better themselves and their families and they contribute to the local economy. Let's just say that I doubt the people being "expelled" from London will be the cream of the lower-middle and working classes.

That's precisely what Wales and northern England needs right now – more people, looking for fewer jobs. It's like a twisted, reverse version of The Grapes of Wrath.

We constantly hear how London and South East England are the economic engine of the UK. So logically, shouldn't movement be in the opposite direction?

We can call it "Take in a Taff", and have a soppy TV appeal. Can live in the garage of your Belgravia townhouse. Comes house-trained and vaccinated. Requires regular walks and rugby pitches. Will find deep holes irresistible.

More seriously, I said this in response to the Welsh Government's Housing White Paper back in May:

"I'm afraid that the Welsh Government's broadly positive aims to reduce it (homelessness) might be exploited by local authorities elsewhere in the UK to "dump their problems on us". Despite the trend of falls in homelessness numbers, the Welsh Government could inadvertently let the UK Government off the hook for their welfare and housing reforms, and be left to pick up the pieces and the price tag. "

We knew London boroughs were planning something along these lines, but perhaps thought that they wouldn't be cretinous/heartless enough to go through with it. Well, here we are.

It's estimated there'll be around 200,000 possible "evacuees" from London alone, though I imagine only a few hundred would move to Wales. They'll likely be larger families, who live in large houses and flats on social housing estates in areas where rents are higher - swankier districts like Westminster and Kensington & Chelsea for example.

Even if it's temporary, they'll need new schools and new GPs. They'll need temporary jobs too – good luck with that. Everything they will have been used to – as London is a different planet compared to most of Wales – will be turned on its head. Try swapping the Underground and London Bus for Arriva Trains Wales, First Cymru and Stagecoach.

They're likely to be quite angry about being forced/coerced to move too, and they'll take it out on the people whose doorsteps they've been left on – Welsh local authorities and the Welsh Government.

The Welsh Government can do three things.

They can send the equivalent of a strongly-worded letter (because devolution is toothless). They can keep their fingers crossed that this is a political stunt (as John Dixon said). Or they can prepare for the inevitable.

For the latter, there's the opportunity to come up with great-sounding social enterprises and third sector bodies, and plonk some failed political candidate in to channel EU funds yadda, yadda, yadda.

None of this solves the underlying problems : high rents, high cost of living and lack of affordable housing in London.

The old way of solving this, was pulling people to new towns constructed around the M25 - the so-called "London overspill". NIMBYs and the economic crisis put paid to that, but if you want to live next to a Global City, I think you should expect it to acquire more breathing room as it grows. There's no way that the new developments in Stratford related to the Olympics will solve the problem by itself either. You need thirty or forty Stratfords.

The Welsh Government (and some local authorities in Wales & England) have been very accommodating to "other people's problems" down the years. Their quest for an all-encompassing, obtuse definition of "social justice", has lead to London boroughs seriously considering this as a viable option.

Thanks for selling us out cheap.

We have to remember, that it's not the tenants fault that since the 1970s, the UK has become useless at planning for anything that requires longer than 10 years of forethought – look at energy, transport and now housing and welfare.

Despite being portrayed as a megalopolis with streets paved with gold, London has levels of deprivation that would make Welsh Labour teeth itch. While Wales remains part of the UK, we shouldn't ignore that, perhaps because things in Wales aren't half as bad as they appear to be.

This proposal is....quite extraordinary. History has shown us that coerced and forced movements rarely end well – for those being moved, or the areas to which they are moved to.

It's funny. Whenever I doubt my commitment to independence, you can always rely on the UK Government, or other "great British institutions", to take a dump with their trousers on, reassuring me that it's the right choice.