Making sense of the "Sardine Express"

(Pic : Wales Online)

It could be written off as dredging social media for stories, but numerous reports over the last couple of months regarding overcrowded Arriva Trains Wales (ATW) services in and out of Cardiff - as well as some longer-distance services to and from Swansea - display what's becoming a very serious problem.

This was backed by figures released in August 2016 which showed rail passengers travelling in and out of Cardiff face some of the worst overcrowding outside Greater London.

AMs have provided anecdotal evidence based on their own experiences – Leanne Wood AM (Plaid, Rhondda) has led calls for changes for a while, while Hefin David AM (Lab, Caerphilly) raised the issue at FMQs this week. This was joined by a report from the Welsh Affairs Select Committee, published yesterday, which condemned the condition of the trains; there more on that report at the Plaid Monmouth blog.

Ticket prices keep rising, while a fire at Caerphilly station in October 2016 betrayed the fact the trains are coming to the end of their useful life and are in danger of becoming a safety risk in their own right. Having said that, ATW's engineers have performed miracles just to keep them going.

Why is it happening?

To answer this question it's worth briefly answering: "Who owns the trains?"

The short answer is no train operating companies actually own their trains. They're leased from rolling stock  companies (ROSCOs). So if the ROSCOs don't have any free trains available, the train operating companies – like ATW - won't have them either.

ATW say the problems they've experienced are down to a shortage of new carriages, combined with a greater than expected number of trains being taken out of service for emergency repairs (partly down to their age, partly down to stress caused by winter weather). This means services that require four to six carriages end up with two, sometimes one.

Another answer most people have avoided until recently is that when Arriva were awarded the Wales & Borders rail franchise in 2003, it was done on a "zero growth" basis – meaning Arriva were not obliged to invest any money in new rolling stock on a presumption passenger numbers would remain stable. In reality, passenger numbers have increased by between 2-3% year on year.

Why problems could get worse before improving

Most of the trains used on ATW's busiest routes are at least 30 years old and, as they don't meet disabled access criteria, will have to be withdrawn from service circa 2020.
Arriva's 2003 bid included new trains, but the UK Department of Transport – who were responsible for awarding the franchise at the time via the (now defunct) Strategic Rail Authority - did so on the aforementioned "zero growth" basis, so the investment wasn't made.

The current ATW franchise ends soon and the new one will be awarded by the Welsh Government later this year - starting April 2018. It's almost certain that, as it ties in with the Metro and electrification, new rolling stock will be a requirement, meaning longer trains and more capacity. This was confirmed by the First Minister on Tuesday.

That sounds nice, but there are serious problems to overcome.

Firstly, the new operator will still be reliant on leased trains in the short-term – there simply aren't enough of them.
Any extra trains from 2018 are likely to be "hand me downs" from other companies who have replaced their fleet. So there's a good chance we'll end up with some/all of Northern Rail's Pacers and Sprinters as their trains are replaced with new models from 2019.

One option that's been mooted are diesel conversions of London Underground trains from the early 1980s. As a stop gap measure it's not a bad idea, and they could work well on the Valley Lines during peak times until the Metro is properly introduced.

Also, it was once recommended the Welsh Government set up their own ROSCO and own the trains (Future of the Wales & Borders franchise), but the upfront costs are significant; based on Arriva's contract to replace Northern Rail's Pacers & Sprinters, replacing ATW's Valleys fleet could cost up to £500-600million.

The timetable for electrification of the Valley Lines, Cardiff-Swansea and (potentially in future) north Wales mainline will complicate matters too; there's no point entering into long-term leasing arrangements for diesel trains if the lines will be electrified.

Additionally, with electrification projects falling behind schedule across the UK, the Welsh Government may have to fund it themselves (even though rail infrastructure is non-devolved), eating into the budget for rolling stock replacements.