The End of the Senedd?

I know many people dream of this, but it's time
to wake them up; silly season's almost over.

2016's silly season has been a classic. The period between the end of July and the start of September always brings out the creative side in politicians, their press officers and producers of yellow journalism as they try to draw attention to themselves, keeping eyes focused on pages and screens amidst other distractions.

Even I've done my bit by writing more than 25,000 words on a military that doesn't even exist.

One of the more substantive things that's come out of silly season are premonitions of doom for the National Assembly, which could  - through a combination of factors - be in danger of abolition. It isn't but I'll humour you anyway because, like everyone else it seems, I've got nothing better to do.

More on this story from National Left, Ifan Morgan Jones and Pedryn Drycin.

Brexit backlash or backseat driving?

The main contentions of Jeremy Miles AM (Lab, Neath), Lee Waters AM (Lab, Llanelli), Conservative leader Andrew Davies AM (Con, South Wales Central) as well as Mark Reckless AM (UKIP, South Wales East) – and others who've piled in – is that "anti-establishment feeling" amongst the electorate is in serious danger of undermining devolution. The pro-devolution consensus – particularly after the 2011 referendum - might no longer be there.

As we've just voted to abolish a layer of government, we would – logically - be willing to vote to abolish another layer of government. Cardiff Bay is in the firing line, with the National Assembly historically struggling to get people to turn out and vote in its elections, while questions remain over successive Welsh governments' record when it comes to public service delivery.

The two Labour AMs were more guarded, while Andrew - who's become a self-appointed spokesperson for Brexit in Wales - decided to link it directly to what he sees as a lack of action from the Welsh Government on Brexit itself. His argument goes that if the majority of people don't see Brexit working, or feel that there's a political desire from within the Assembly to see it fail, they'll turn on AMs and devolution.

It's right to link the Brexit referendum result to an undercurrent of populist anti-establishment feeling, but that in itself undermines the result because we were supposed to be voting on the benefits and drawbacks of the UK's EU membership, not the popularity of politicians.

Nonetheless, that's democracy and everyone has to accept the result and "work to make Brexit work" - full stop. I'd also agree with both Andrew and Prof. Richard Wyn Jones that the Welsh Government have been somewhat laid back in its response, particularly in policy areas where they can start work immediately - like farming or the environment.

The trouble is that, to date, Andrew's failed to name a single tangible, practical benefit of Brexit. Neither has he come up with any ideas on how he would take things forward other than attacking the advisory group recently set up by the First Minister to do the very thing he's complaining about!

Andrew RT Davies is becoming Wales' Brexit backseat driver, and even he has to realise the Welsh Government can't prepare for something properly until they know precisely what they're dealing with. Will the UK still be in the single market? What sort of free trade deal would the UK have with the EU if it's not in the single market?

The answers to those and many other questions will determine what response the Welsh Government needs to kick into action – and we don't have those answers yet. Perhaps Andrew should start tutting and barking orders at Theresa May.


Why the Assembly won't be scrapped any time soon

Far be it from me to accuse others of being hysterical....but they're being hysterical.

I'll be cynical instead and assume certain figures are talking up direct rule, or a direct rule referendum, because they secretly want it to happen, goaded on by a press eager for silly season headlines. If so, they should come clean now – saying one thing then doing another is one of the reasons the political class is held in such low esteem in the first place.

When the current Wales Bill passes the UK Parliament, devolution as it is for Wales will become a "permanent fixture" of the UK's constitution (Part 1, Clause 1). It could only be abolished if the Welsh electorate vote for it in a referendum – which would require the UK Parliament's permission as the constitution is non-devolved.

The wording of the Bill - as it is - means any attempt by the UK Parliament to undermine its own "commitment of the Parliament and Government of the United Kingdom to the Assembly and Welsh Government" would be unconstitutional. So in order to get a direct-rule referendum on the table there would need to be a desire to abolish the Assembly at both ends of the M4.

That means a majority (if not a super majority) of AMs would need to vote themselves out of existence based on a mandate given to them by the electorate; there's an idiom about turkeys and Christmas that comes to mind.

It's safe to say Plaid Cymru, the Lib Dems and Labour would never adopt that position for different reasons. I expect UKIP to re-adopt the position in the future (if they still exist a few years from now). The Welsh Conservatives are talking their way into supporting direct-rule – and it would certainly enjoy sizable support of their grassroots - but they'll never have the numbers to push it through.

Unless you think Abolish the Assembly Party can win 31 seats in the Senedd, and/or carry at least two of the pro-devolutionist parties with them, it'll never happen.

Returning to public support for direct-rule, it would have to be pretty big for one of the influential parties in the Senedd to put it in a manifesto. There's been a sizable, well-organised minority calling for EU withdrawal for decades aided by a right-wing UK press. Nothing on that scale has happened for direct rule in Wales - just keyboard warriors typing in caps in comment sections. There would need to be a targeted assault from Fleet Street that could well cause a backlash akin to that against The Sun in Liverpool.

All polling shows support for direct-rule/abolition has steadily declined since 1999 and remains consistently at around 13%. Also, the Assembly and Welsh Government have been ranked as (relatively) more trusted, and AMs held in (relative) higher esteem, than all other politicians and public institutions except the police and the courts. The EU/EU Parliament has always lacked this level of trust or esteem, probably down to confusion, distance/sovereignty issues, genuine euroscepticism or lack of knowledge over what it actually does - and that made it easier for people to vote leave.

There's always a danger of complacency. The real issue here is support for further devolution could decline – an argument that will need to be treated on its own merits and properly polled. So how the Assembly works in the future - including side issues like the number of AMs - could be impacted by the anti-politics undercurrent and a failure to adapt to Brexit. Abolition? Not so much.

Asking the wrong question?

What if I were to tell you there's an institution out there that's even worse than the Assembly? Smugger, worse at delivering big projects, worse at managing public finances, borderline tyrannical.

They're scandal-prone incompetents who've mismanaged the Welsh economy for hundreds of years; they've run up a national debt in the trillions of pounds and run an annual deficit in the tens of billions; they're an institution created by force with no public mandate; they had a hand in slavery and genocide and other systematic abuses of human rights; they've sent hundreds of thousands of people to their deaths for no good reason; they actively believe in their own supremacy and the majority of them are unelected.

If we're going to decide whether elected bodies should exist or not based on their historical track record of performance and delivery, surely the question we should be asking is: "Should Westminster be abolished?"

See, I can do hyperbole too!....And don't get me started on local councils!