Done up like a kipper?

He might have backed Brexit, but where will Nathan Gill Remain?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Update 17/08/2016 : Nathan Gill has made his choice - he's keeping both jobs. Bizarrely, he's leaving the UKIP Assembly group to sit as an Independent, but will remain a UKIP member, UKIP MEP for Wales and leader of UKIP's Welsh branch. You couldn't make it up. Do-do-dodododo-do-do-do-do.

Another Update 18/08/2016 : Just when you thought the hole couldn't be dug any deeper, Channel 4 News reveal this little problem....I may have to return to that once more details come out.

It's taken them just over three months, but – as widely anticipated – the signs are that the UKIP Assembly group is beginning to dismantle itself.

Nathan Gill AM (UKIP, North Wales) is well on the way to making history by becoming the first Assembly Member to be formally expelled from their party (former Lib Dem, Mick Bates, jumped before he was pushed while John Marek was de-selected by Labour).

It's an inevitable outcome of an increasingly bitter row over Nathan's "double-jobbing" as both an AM and MEP, which resulted in UKIP's National Executive Committee threatening to carry through an expulsion unless he makes a choice. The UKIP Assembly group met yesterday (August 2nd) and five members piled the pressure on by demanding  Nathan resign from one of the roles too.

There's nothing stopping AMs from being an MEP or local councillor at the same time – though they're specifically barred from being an MP. In the case of MEPs, instead of receiving two salaries, they lose about two thirds of their salary as an AM. At the moment it's claimed Nathan Gill earns ~£95,000 a year for doing both roles.

With EnglandandWales voting to leave the EU in June, all four of Wales' MEPs are lame ducks working down the clock until the UK completes the EU withdrawal process. As long as Article 50 is activated between now and June 2017 that's likely to happen before the next EU Parliament elections.

Nevertheless, our MEPs will play some role in the negotiation process and that leaves UKIP in a bind, as three of the four candidates on their 2014 EU election list were elected as AMs in May, including Nathan.

A way out has been found (sort of) in the form of James Cole, who was also on UKIP's 2014 EU list.

James left UKIP to join the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party and stood for them in South Wales West back in May. James has had a sudden change of heart and has rejoined UKIP, being the sole candidate willing to take Nathan's £76,000 a year place in Brussels. True principles there.

It's worth running through the options facing Nathan Gill, none of which look particularly good for himself or UKIP :

• Remain as both an AM and MEP – He'll almost certainly have the UKIP whip withdrawn and would sit as an Independent for the rest of his term(s). Nathan's talking of a legal challenge to prevent his expulsion, but these things are usually decided by internal party rules; he'd have to find a loophole. Keeping both jobs isn't the best PR but it prevents a by-election and blocks UKIP sending James Cole to Brussels. As an Independent on the regional list, his chances of re-election in 2021 would disappear unless he stands in (and wins) a constituency seat or the electoral system changes to something like STV.
• Resign as an MEP – As said, James Cole is front-runner to take his place in the EU Parliament despite having stood against UKIP just a few weeks ago, and coming out against the existence of the National Assembly in the most public way possible. This would be embarrassing to UKIP and real barrel-scraping stuff.
• Resign as an MEP with his EU Parliament seat left vacant – Wales loses 25% of its representation in Brussels. It avoids a costly by-election but makes UKIP looks like a bunch of amateurs who don't take public office seriously and aren't concerned about Wales' voice in Brexit negotiations.
• Resign as an MEP with a Wales-wide by-election held to fill the seat – This would cost several million pounds, result in some measure of resentment from voters and would – as said – elect a lame duck; but Wales would at least retain a full complement of MEPs, all of whom have a proper mandate. As it would be (AFAIK) first-past-the-post and all-Wales, a by-election would almost certainly be won by Labour.
• Resign as an AM - His Assembly seat would be taken by the third-place UKIP candidate in North Wales in May 2016, Mandy Jones. This would be personally embarrassing considering the high profile he had during the election campaign. With control of the party seemingly slipping from Farage loyalists there's a good chance he wouldn't be selected to run in future anyway.
• Defect to another party – Based on his political beliefs the Conservatives would be the only practical option. Andrew RT Davies would probably welcome him, but whether the rest of the party would is another matter; I'd expect to jump ship he would still have to resign as an MEP, which would cause complications on its own. With Brexit decided and the Conservatives leading negotiations at UK level there are few political obstacles really. There would be obvious implications to the Assembly in terms of the official opposition and committee memberships.
• Someone else resigns as a UKIP AM and takes his EU Parliament seat – The two other AMs who stood on the 2014 list – Caroline Jones AM (UKIP, South Wales West) and David Rowlands AM (UKIP, South Wales East) – have already either said the seat should be left vacant or have joined calls for Nathan to step down. Won't happen unless some sort of private deal is struck.

....if anyone wondered why parties often put 8 or 9 candidates down for the four spaces on each Assembly regional list, there's the explanation.

"Double-jobbing" is unacceptable and I'd extend that to AMs who are councillors or members of the House of Lords too (past and present) – though in the case of the former, the local elections next May will provide an opportunity to stand down gracefully. Either give the job your 100% attention or stand aside for someone who will.

Someone in UKIP clearly hasn't watched The Thick of It.
(Pic : via BBC Wales)

I suspect many people who voted UKIP in May expected them to go into the Senedd to "shake things up". In the chamber itself, apart from one or two theatrical groans from the other parties at various faux pas, UKIP have settled in without setting the world alight. They're now as firmly a part of the "Cardiff Bay establishment" as anyone else.

The disunity and disorganisation behind the scenes however resembles a soap opera set in a clown school – exactly as myself, and no doubt many others, feared would happen.

The issue of the EU Parliament seat should've been settled before the Assembly election campaign, so it's difficult to feel sorry for Nathan Gill here, particularly as he reportedly said he would stand down as an MEP if elected as an AM.

Having said that, he hasn't – in a constitutional sense – done anything wrong and there's clearly been an orchestrated campaign against Farage loyalists by those under the thumb of the Hamiltons in Wales and others elsewhere. This whole thing is too perfect to not be deliberate.

UKIP will rightly go down as one of the most successful single-issue parties in history, but in Wales they're in danger of becoming a turd that refuses to flush....and we can look forward to 5 years of this.