When Politicians Shit Their Pants

As you can tell by Leanne's body language, she's absolutely
thrilled to have been put forward as First Minister.

One headline today was about a man being caught on video knocked out by a clown in a circus stunt. A man was  knocked out by a clown in Blackwood too.

This was originally going to be an analysis of Plaid Cymru's performance in the election – I'll post that another time, not that much is going to happen in Cardiff Bay for the next few days/weeks.

This afternoon was the first plenary session following the election. As you probably all remember, the last session of the Fourth Assembly ended in acrimonious circumstances (What the fuck was that!?). I've decided to moderate my response to this one.

Today saw the routine election of the new Llywydd and Deputy Llywydd – Elin Jones AM (Plaid, Ceredigion) and Ann Jones AM (Lab, Vale of Clwyd) respectively.

The other item on the agenda was the formal appointment of First Minister. With 29 seats (17 more than the next largest party) and 252,000 more votes in constituencies and regional lists than the next largest party, Labour have a strong mandate....I can't believe I'm even saying this....to have the sole nomination for First Minister.

However, as no party has a majority, anyone who can command the confidence (a majority) in the Assembly chamber could be appointed First Minister as long as a majority of AMs agree – but for opposition parties that means being at the head of a coalition or having some sort of agreement in place.

As a majority of AMs are not Labour AMs, Plaid Cymru decided to give Labour "a bloody nose" by putting forward Leanne Wood. Rhun ap Iorwerth AM (Plaid, Ynys Môn), who nominated her, held informal discussions with some opposition AMs to back her candidacy.

If all Plaid Cymru AMs, and one or two from the other parties, backed Leanne Wood's candidacy it would've sent a message to Labour that they don't have a majority, but would still acknowledge they have the mandate – as the largest party – to form a government.

For Leanne Wood to become First Minister would require all opposition AMs - including UKIP – to back her.

The vote was done by roll-call. As each name was read out and the camera panned across the Plaid Cymru benches, you could pinpoint the exact moment their underwear started to fill with fresh steaming shite.

They had a noose around their neck and were about to commit political suicide through either : the accidental creation of a rainbow coalition reliant on Conservative and UKIP support, or an embarrassingly short term for Leanne Wood as First Minister before handing over to Carwyn at some point, like a young daughter being caught in the driving seat of their father's vintage car.

Clearly neither of those outcomes was Plaid's intention – they only wanted to give them "a bloody nose" as said. Despite that, it was about to happen because sometimes these stunts backfire when you're not entirely sure what you're dealing with – in this case UKIP, whose complement of seven AMs backed Leanne Wood, along with all the Tories.

As the names kept coming, Labour had a bloody nose, but Plaid had an increasingly shitty arse.

With the stool wobbling under them and the noose tightening, they needed someone to rescue them and spare them the short drop and a broken neck....ON THE FIRST FUCKING DAY.

Luckily, there's one AM who has more common sense than the rest of the opposition AMs combined, from a party whose members we decided to boot out in great numbers last week and who would've certainly prevented this nonsense happening : Kirsty Williams AM (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor). Both Leanne and Carwyn owe her a pint.

With Kirsty voting in favour of Carwyn Jones the vote was tied 29-29. What this means is there's a 28-day period for AMs to cobble together an agreement that will eventually see Carwyn Jones appointed as First Minister. Then he can appoint a new government and those minor issues out there – like the steel crisis and EU referendum – can be addressed properly.

If there's no break in the deadlock, we'll be going back to the polls to elect the Sixth Assembly in June or July. If I were Labour and this continues for more than a week I would call Plaid's bluff and actively talk up the prospects of a second election; they're the only party who have the resources to run a second campaign while it could bankrupt some of the opposition parties.

Next, it's worth asking what this means?

Labour will have to go into talks with other parties whether they like it or not, but with Labour holding the only realistic mandate to form a government – by themselves or by leading a coalition – it makes you question what Plaid were hoping to achieve here. If they want a coalition or a supply and confidence agreement they could talk to them at anytime and didn't need to block the creation of a minority government.

Serious questions will also have to be asked as to whether Plaid Cymru are mature enough to be the official opposition. Based on this, surely Andrew Davies has as much right to call himself Leader of the Opposition as Leanne Wood. At the moment that sounds preferable; maybe that's why they voted for it in order to embarrass both Labour and Plaid.

You've also got to wonder who thought it would be such a great idea and why? Did any of them consider the possible consequences? Did any of them check who was voting for who beforehand? Groupthink and arrogance hit Plaid yet again.

Hypothetically, if the Scottish Conservatives challenged the SNP's mandate to run Scotland or attempted to block Nicola Sturgeon's confirmation as First Minster, they would be laughed at, wouldn't they?

The difference between Scotland and Wales is they have a parliament, we're stuck with a circus.