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| The most exciting thing to happen at the Senedd since.... (Pic : Wales Online) |
The thoughts of sitting
and prospective AMs will start turning towards the 2016 National
Assembly election with only six months remaining until polling day - as indicted by the countdown clock I've added to the top right.
I'm not going to start covering the election in any great detail until next February at the earliest. In all honesty there's little to write about at the moment and it'll just lead to election fatigue for myself and anyone reading this. I prefer quick campaigns, I can't stress that enough.
What I'm going to do today is briefly look at what each of the six parties with serious chances of winning seats next May have done so far, and what they might seek to work on before the short campaign starts.
Labour
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| There are presently no signs of a threat to Labour's hegemony, but that doesn't mean The Party won't be in for a rough ride. (Pic : BBC Wales) |
Grandstanding in the Assembly chamber aside, Labour haven't quite got into election mode yet, though they've been consulting on their manifesto and there's the usual crap in the press.
You can point to the slightly controversial "Carwyn Connects" tour, where – with Welsh Government funding – Carwyn Jones tours Wales in his official capacity as First Minister and leader of the largest party going into an election year. It might not be morally right, but it's clever.
The other main thing is adjusting to life with Jeremy Corbyn as leader. So far it doesn't look as if it's had that much of an impact and, if anything, there's been a slight bounce in Labour support as was reported towards the end of September via Elections in Wales. I would be very surprised if the Welsh branch of Labour allow themselves to be torn apart by Blairite-Brownite-Corbynite factionalism when they have a lot to lose by doing so.
Such is the electoral system, it's a racing certainty that Carwyn Jones is going to be First Minister-elect on May 6th, it's just a matter of whether he's going to govern alone or in coalition. That poses its own tricky questions as Labour are set to lose experienced AMs like Edwina Hart, and an influx of inexperienced AMs on Labour's backbenches - as well as the fact not many of the 2011 intake have shown themselves to be long-term cabinet material - will limit the government talent pool further. That might make a coalition a good bet at the moment even if Labour retain their current 30 seats.
Despite that, there are long-standing rumours that senior and experienced Welsh Labour personalities, like Eluned Morgan and Huw Irranca-Davies, are thinking of running.
What Labour need most of all is fresh thinking – less of the managerialism, more big ideas. They needn't be impractical in doing so, but if they're going to inflict another five years of micromanagement on us, it won't be long until even their closest allies start questioning if this bunch are really up to the task of running a nation, not running a nation as if it's a branch of Morrisons.
They have a patchy, unambitious – occasionally dreadful - record in government to defend, particularly when it comes to the NHS. I'm not expecting major shocks in terms of results at present, but Labour ought to prepare themselves for their roughest ride in a Welsh election since 2007.
Conservatives
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| By going "all in" on health, are the Welsh Conservatives risking drowning out messages on other policy areas? (Pic : Welsh Conservatives/Your Voice) |
What of the official opposition?
They can point towards some forward momentum since the House of Commons election and they do a reasonable enough job in opposition.
Ask yourself one question : Can you picture a Tory-led Welsh Government?
No, me neither. That's their, and Welsh democracy's, biggest problem. By that I don't mean welcoming a Tory government with open arms - I wouldn't. It's more about how difficult it is for any alternative non-Labour government to gain a foothold. It's even harder for the Conservatives because they'll never win those small Valleys seats any party with hopes of forming a government need to take.
Health is always going to be a key policy battleground, and calling the election a "referendum on the NHS" makes a good soundbite; but the Tories are playing a dangerous game in making the election solely about health, as it risks drowning out messages in other areas of devolved policy - which require just as much attention - such as housing, economic development and education.
It's not their trump card either. They're going to have to set out in detail which areas of the budget they would cut to fund an NHS spending spree (the NHS already sucks up close to half of devolved spending) – the tuition fee grant is certainly looking like a victim. At the moment, unlike the 2015 campaign they're talking themselves into a corner, and it sounds as though they're simply trying to copy and paste English policies onto Wales. That won't always work.
If they're serious about wanting to form the next Welsh Government, they need to prove they can run, not just overfund, the NHS (and not soley point to comparisons with England, as the English NHS isn't the El Dorado they think it is). They also have to gain the trust of the public sector in Wales so they come around to welcoming the prospect of both a power and ideology shift, which is an uphill climb to say the least.
Plaid Cymru
They can point towards some forward momentum since the House of Commons election and they do a reasonable enough job in opposition.
Ask yourself one question : Can you picture a Tory-led Welsh Government?
No, me neither. That's their, and Welsh democracy's, biggest problem. By that I don't mean welcoming a Tory government with open arms - I wouldn't. It's more about how difficult it is for any alternative non-Labour government to gain a foothold. It's even harder for the Conservatives because they'll never win those small Valleys seats any party with hopes of forming a government need to take.
Health is always going to be a key policy battleground, and calling the election a "referendum on the NHS" makes a good soundbite; but the Tories are playing a dangerous game in making the election solely about health, as it risks drowning out messages in other areas of devolved policy - which require just as much attention - such as housing, economic development and education.
It's not their trump card either. They're going to have to set out in detail which areas of the budget they would cut to fund an NHS spending spree (the NHS already sucks up close to half of devolved spending) – the tuition fee grant is certainly looking like a victim. At the moment, unlike the 2015 campaign they're talking themselves into a corner, and it sounds as though they're simply trying to copy and paste English policies onto Wales. That won't always work.
If they're serious about wanting to form the next Welsh Government, they need to prove they can run, not just overfund, the NHS (and not soley point to comparisons with England, as the English NHS isn't the El Dorado they think it is). They also have to gain the trust of the public sector in Wales so they come around to welcoming the prospect of both a power and ideology shift, which is an uphill climb to say the least.
Plaid Cymru
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| "Government in waiting"? Don't believe the hype just yet. (Pic : Wales Online) |
Plaid are the closest to 100% election mode.
All parties have let policies drip out every few months, but Plaid have been a bit more proactive and started their 2016 campaign days after the 2015 campaign ended. Plaid are also (rightly) attempting make use of the increased media exposure of Leanne Wood, sending their leader around Wales in what's been christened a "Leanne Van".
Is it all too soon? Maybe there's an argument it was right to start campaigning during a "Zombie Assembly" (there's little happening in the Assembly for the next six months) to ensure maximum media exposure (or what passes for it in Wales). It's fairly obvious from the rhetoric coming from the top of the party that they believe they're ready to lead a Welsh Government, but aside from previous policy papers, Plaid don't have much to offer the electorate yet. Their proposals for public service reform, for example, will be predicated upon further consultation.
They desperately need a USP as it's hard to determine what Plaid are for (Gwynoro Jones picked up on this recently and it's well worth a read). Regardless of where Welsh Labour lie on the political spectrum, those on the left and in the trade unions - who Plaid have long courted - were going to jump ship as soon as the Blair-Brown era ended in UK Labour. Plus, they've partly renounced nationalism by publicly giving up on independence, even if their support for that has always been lukewarm (admittedly it shouldn't be a high priority going into an election).
Plaid are increasingly relying on the electorate realising next May is about devolved policies and electing a new Welsh Government with fresh ideas, not a Westminster mid-term. Due to the serious problems in getting that message across to people (given the weak Welsh media), they've misjudged how hard it's going to be to meet the expectations they've set themselves.
Having said that, their recent announcements on health and social care offer a glimmer of hope that there may be a lot of substance in their manifesto next year – it's just a case of presenting these policies in a way people can understand. Will they be able to explain in plain English and Welsh why integrating health and social care will improve services, for example?
Overall, despite the cult-like positivity, Plaid's overconfidence is masking a slightly directionless floundering – though it's still early days, and in terms of presentation they're getting everything right so far.
Liberal Democrats
All parties have let policies drip out every few months, but Plaid have been a bit more proactive and started their 2016 campaign days after the 2015 campaign ended. Plaid are also (rightly) attempting make use of the increased media exposure of Leanne Wood, sending their leader around Wales in what's been christened a "Leanne Van".
Is it all too soon? Maybe there's an argument it was right to start campaigning during a "Zombie Assembly" (there's little happening in the Assembly for the next six months) to ensure maximum media exposure (or what passes for it in Wales). It's fairly obvious from the rhetoric coming from the top of the party that they believe they're ready to lead a Welsh Government, but aside from previous policy papers, Plaid don't have much to offer the electorate yet. Their proposals for public service reform, for example, will be predicated upon further consultation.
They desperately need a USP as it's hard to determine what Plaid are for (Gwynoro Jones picked up on this recently and it's well worth a read). Regardless of where Welsh Labour lie on the political spectrum, those on the left and in the trade unions - who Plaid have long courted - were going to jump ship as soon as the Blair-Brown era ended in UK Labour. Plus, they've partly renounced nationalism by publicly giving up on independence, even if their support for that has always been lukewarm (admittedly it shouldn't be a high priority going into an election).
Plaid are increasingly relying on the electorate realising next May is about devolved policies and electing a new Welsh Government with fresh ideas, not a Westminster mid-term. Due to the serious problems in getting that message across to people (given the weak Welsh media), they've misjudged how hard it's going to be to meet the expectations they've set themselves.
Having said that, their recent announcements on health and social care offer a glimmer of hope that there may be a lot of substance in their manifesto next year – it's just a case of presenting these policies in a way people can understand. Will they be able to explain in plain English and Welsh why integrating health and social care will improve services, for example?
Overall, despite the cult-like positivity, Plaid's overconfidence is masking a slightly directionless floundering – though it's still early days, and in terms of presentation they're getting everything right so far.
Liberal Democrats
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| Will next year mark the first step in the Lib Dem "Fightback"? (Pic : Wales Online) |
For the Lib Dems, it's been all about "The Fightback".
Despite the spirited, you could even say brave, face they're putting on things, the situation isn't looking good, and everything points to May's terrible results continuing into next year.
As much as the Welsh Lib Dems need to bounce back from May's humiliation, they're seriously going to have to think of ways to survive as a major party in the Assembly. In my opinion that means picking their targets very carefully indeed, showing some humility and really pushing distinctive policies that will set them apart from the others.
The good news is that it's become clear over the last few months that the Lib Dems are doing their homework on specific policy concerns – whether that's as Valley Lines electrification, NHS staffing levels, the e-cig ban and the Swansea Bay tidal lagoon. They look and sound like a liberal party again, not Tory-lite.
In another bit of good news, unlike any of the other opposition parties, the Lib Dems can point towards significant policies of theirs being adopted at a Welsh level – namely the pupil deprivation grant and Mobile Homes Act 2013, but possibly adding the Safe Nursing Levels Bill to that in the coming months.
They can also point to having a very effective leader and asset in Kirsty Williams who, if it wasn't for The Coalition, would likely now (and deserves to) have a public profile at least as high as Leanne Wood.
The Lib Dems would be making a mistake – the same one Plaid are lumbering towards making – in turning this into a presidential-style election with their leader as the be all and end all, particularly when the Lib Dem's trump card is the relative strength, abilities and effectiveness of their Assembly group (despite only have 5 AMs). For example, Eluned Parrott AM (Lib Dem, South Wales Central) was elected "by accident" and has been, by far and away, amongst the best AMs of the Fourth Assembly.
Overall, you can argue they have as much a record "in government" to defend as Labour, particularly as people begin to understand what they brought to the table in terms of a leash on the Tories when in Coalition. Perhaps they think they can do the same with the rather authoritarian Welsh branch of Labour too?
UKIP
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| UKIP are still on course to win several seats next year, but we've barely heard a peep from them so far. Does this hint at problems behind the scenes? (Pic : South Wales Evening Post) |
Have "The People's Army" demobilised? We've hardly heard a peep from UKIP in Wales since the May election apart from a few rumours on candidacies.
The other parties can't ignore the fact that UKIP did well in May. They may not have won seats, but the momentum's there and 12 months isn't enough time for the electorate to forget their night of right-wing populist indulgence.
It seems UKIP's central office are banking on the party doing something significant in Wales next May in order to restore some semblance of credibility – following Farage's purge and "unresignation" - in the run up to the EU In-Out referendum. That explains moving their UK annual conference to Llandudno next spring. It's much smarter than it looks; success begets success and holding a small conference in Swansea won't compare to a big bash in north Wales attracting kippers the length and breadth of the UK.
UKIP's problem is that while we know what they're against – the EU, immigration and, presently to a lesser extent, devolution itself - we don't know what they're for and they've never really taken an interest in devolved issues. So far it looks like they're picking populist targets that they think will be vote-winners like opposition to the proposed indoor e-cig ban and scrapping the Severn Bridge tolls. There's been nothing serious yet though apart from some straight-out-of-the-1950s stuff on selective schooling.
I suspect their manfiesto is going to be an entertaining read.
They could also be on the verge of making a huge mistake by parachuting prominent figures based in England – like Mark Reckless and Neil Hamilton - onto the lists whilst putting the Welsh flag on everything. They have a primarily working class Welsh vote they need to harness – particularly in the Valleys - and as these areas tend to have pretty high levels of Welsh national identity, UKIP are going to have to be careful they don't play their English nationalist card too strongly by attempting to dump their rubbish on us. They'll have no long-term future in Wales unless they can build a credible local base - and that's arguably their biggest weakness.
Greens
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| The Greens are targeting three seats in the Assembly, and their long-term future in Wales seems tied to their highly-rated South Wales Central candidate, Amelia Womack. (Pic : ITV Wales) |
So
far it's been quiet from the Greens, but I don't doubt that behind
the scenes they're working hard and have announced a number
of significant candidate selections over the last few weeks.
The Greens have made an effort to support as many campaigns as possible, and they almost always have a presence at any major environmental, peace or social justice related petition handover/protest at the National Assembly.
They made progress last May, but nothing to indicate "the breakthrough" is any nearer. However, next May will be different because 20 seats will be elected by proportional representation. Despite that, to win at least one seat – the Greens are reportedly targeting three list seats – their usual vote across Wales (30-35,000 in Assembly elections) has to increase by between 50-100%.
Until the Assembly expands to 80 AMs, I honestly think the Greens efforts are better concentrated on electing councillors in 2017 (which is certainly doable in some local authorities) rather than AMs in 2016.
So the Green's task is firstly to get seen, and they'll need a Herculean effort from their activists to match the other parties in terms of leaflet drops and canvassing etc. Things can change, and depending on the format of any TV debates, maybe Pippa Bartolotti (or someone like the highly-rated EnglandandWales deputy leader, Amelia Womack) will get some sort of Leanne Wood style bounce.
Their second task is to make sure their policies are well thought through and "devo-proofed" (basing policies on what's devolved, not what isn't - like big energy projects and equalities issues) as they've sometimes struggled with that in the past. Radical anti-austerity politics simply won't work next May because the Assembly doesn't have macroeconomic powers.
The Greens have made an effort to support as many campaigns as possible, and they almost always have a presence at any major environmental, peace or social justice related petition handover/protest at the National Assembly.
They made progress last May, but nothing to indicate "the breakthrough" is any nearer. However, next May will be different because 20 seats will be elected by proportional representation. Despite that, to win at least one seat – the Greens are reportedly targeting three list seats – their usual vote across Wales (30-35,000 in Assembly elections) has to increase by between 50-100%.
Until the Assembly expands to 80 AMs, I honestly think the Greens efforts are better concentrated on electing councillors in 2017 (which is certainly doable in some local authorities) rather than AMs in 2016.
So the Green's task is firstly to get seen, and they'll need a Herculean effort from their activists to match the other parties in terms of leaflet drops and canvassing etc. Things can change, and depending on the format of any TV debates, maybe Pippa Bartolotti (or someone like the highly-rated EnglandandWales deputy leader, Amelia Womack) will get some sort of Leanne Wood style bounce.
Their second task is to make sure their policies are well thought through and "devo-proofed" (basing policies on what's devolved, not what isn't - like big energy projects and equalities issues) as they've sometimes struggled with that in the past. Radical anti-austerity politics simply won't work next May because the Assembly doesn't have macroeconomic powers.
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