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| The "anti-austerity alliance" might seem a good idea now, but Plaid seem to have forgotten the election next year, where such an alliance can't be on such friendly terms for their own sake. (Pic : The Guardian) |
I'm not going full tilt
into my House of Commons election coverage until the second half of
March, but it's worth looking at an issue that's arisen, also covered
by Syniadau, Hogyn o Rachub, Jac o the North (in a backhanded way last year) and Ifan
Morgan Jones over at Golwg360.
The quote I used for the title is from Macbeth, and often interpreted as meaning something that appears to be good will become bad, and likewise in reverse. It's an important warning Plaid Cymru ought to heed as they continue to struggle ideologically between "fair" pan-UK collectivism and "foul" civic nationalism.
It's long been a Plaid Cymru tactic to reach out and "build alliances", perhaps stemming from the Plaid-Green pact which saw Cynog Dafis elected MP for Ceredigion in 1992.
At one level it's pragmatic. Sharing resources, contacts and expertise makes it easier to conduct important cross-party campaigns on social issues like the "bedroom tax". It's also led to a relatively successful spell in government and some deals at Assembly level.
In less-favourable terms, it's meant Plaid have bent over backwards to accommodate viewpoints which don't fit with the long-term aims of their party. They even extend olive branches to organisations which have, to an extent, been openly hostile to them : trade unions, some third sector organisations, even other political parties like the Greens, Lib Dems and Labour. If they do it too often it's worth asking questions.
With regard the forthcoming election, it appears as though Plaid's line of thinking has been dominated by a "fair" romantic vision; a vision of of three women party leaders walking arm-in-arm down Whitehall, forming a bulwark against Con-Lab-Lib austerity, massed ranks following behind. A sort of left-feminist revolution.
It's a powerful statement, but it's worth asking what have Plaid got from "building alliances" in the past?
Well, they eventually lost Ceredigion. After they decided to cosy up to the Welsh branch of Labour they got their fingers burned and endured some of their worst performances in Assembly elections. In 2012 they were booted out of Cardiff Council alongside the Lib Dems, in 2013 they were locked out of a ruling coalition on Anglesey when they expected to be invited to form one, while the not-quite-official endorsement from senior Greens didn't help them much in last year's European elections.
This makes Plaid Cymru's recent endorsement of the EnglandandWales Green Party all the stranger. It's at best baffling, at worst moronic, and it's going to bite them very hard on the backside; not now, but in 2016. That's when their "fair" anti-austerity alliance will turn "foul".
Firstly, by telling voters "in England" to vote Green, they've managed to anger supporters of their Cornish sister party, Mebyon Kernow (two areas where the Greens are expected to do well are Devon and Cornwall). Perhaps they felt Dick Cole, in name and form, might ruin the procession of sisterhood down Whitehall or, more likely, they've forgotten about them because they have better friends now.
Secondly, Natalie Bennett isn't going to win her London seat as she's standing against a parachuted Labour donkey taking over from Frank Dobson. The Greens won't win any Welsh seats this May, and they'll be doing well to keep Caroline Lucas in Westminster. That's first-past-the-post for you, but there's no need for Plaid to offer free endorsements.
Thirdly, the majority of the people walking behind Nicola and Leanne will be Scottish nationalists. As Plaid Cymru should well know, the UK's (unwritten) constitution doesn't say anything about handing out goodies to parties affiliated with more successful ones.
If Plaid want extra powers and fair funding, they need to win the argument in Wales. That means – I know it'll cause heart palpitations amongst Plaid members, but here goes - taking control of the National Assembly for yourselves. You know, repeating what the SNP have done. Becoming a threat. Winning elections on your own.
(UPDATE 05/02/15 : Sport Wales' Prof. Laura McAllister has pretty much said the same thing as me, just put it more eloquently than I have.)
That leads me onto the fourth, and most important, point. Fighting Elections Rule #1 – Never tell people to vote for a party other than your own. Ever.
Plaid Cymru seem to have forgotten that Greens are standing in Wales, have stronger environmentalist credentials than themselves and a growing online presence (helped along by over-eager Plaid activists, with nothing coming from the Greens the other way).
They also have significantly greater visibility across the whole UK, including pictures and print which make their way into Welsh homes. After all, Natalie Bennett is a journalist by profession, so surely that's going to come with useful contacts? If they wanted to they could blow Plaid out of the water.
Plaid have also forgotten that the Greens are standing in next year's National Assembly elections. Current polling (via Elections in Wales) suggests the Greens will take between one and three list seats in regions that will make the position of some sitting, and prospective, Plaid AMs very uncomfortable indeed.
In terms of strategy, it's a bit like a Tory grandee like Ken Clarke or Norman Tebbit telling people in Wales to vote UKIP.
Plaid have built up the Greens – a party which (until the publicity surge at UK level) were ineffectual and would've struggled to make an impact in next year's Assembly elections - into a threat to their own-bloody-seats!
It's still a long way away, but there's now a very realistic chance that Plaid could fall to 8-9 seats in 2016. That will impact their backroom functions and put more strain on whoever's left. It means the resource-intensive campaign on Ynys M̫n in 2013 Рthe justification for which being that losing the election would've cost them a member of staff Рwould've been a waste of time, money and effort.
So it's all smiles, solidarity and locked arms going into May, but at some point in the next twelve months, Plaid Cymru are going to have to take a dagger to their new butties. Unfortunately, the core beliefs of both parties are so similar (nuclear energy and nationalism aside) it's going to be a difficult thing to do without suffering some blow back.
Come 2016, if the Greens in Wales can convince around a fifth of Labour voters to give them their list vote - factoring in those who will switch anyway and the rise of UKIP - oh lawdy are Plaid in for a rough ride!
So forget Westminster; Plaid are love bombing themselves out of the Assembly – the only place they've ever made an impact. If it wasn't so brain dead it would be funny.
(UPDATE 01/02/2015 : Green Party rejects Plaid Cymru call for votes in Wales - via BBC Wales.)
(FURTHER UPDATE 15/02/2015 : Statement from Pippa Bartolotti.)
The quote I used for the title is from Macbeth, and often interpreted as meaning something that appears to be good will become bad, and likewise in reverse. It's an important warning Plaid Cymru ought to heed as they continue to struggle ideologically between "fair" pan-UK collectivism and "foul" civic nationalism.
It's long been a Plaid Cymru tactic to reach out and "build alliances", perhaps stemming from the Plaid-Green pact which saw Cynog Dafis elected MP for Ceredigion in 1992.
At one level it's pragmatic. Sharing resources, contacts and expertise makes it easier to conduct important cross-party campaigns on social issues like the "bedroom tax". It's also led to a relatively successful spell in government and some deals at Assembly level.
In less-favourable terms, it's meant Plaid have bent over backwards to accommodate viewpoints which don't fit with the long-term aims of their party. They even extend olive branches to organisations which have, to an extent, been openly hostile to them : trade unions, some third sector organisations, even other political parties like the Greens, Lib Dems and Labour. If they do it too often it's worth asking questions.
With regard the forthcoming election, it appears as though Plaid's line of thinking has been dominated by a "fair" romantic vision; a vision of of three women party leaders walking arm-in-arm down Whitehall, forming a bulwark against Con-Lab-Lib austerity, massed ranks following behind. A sort of left-feminist revolution.
It's a powerful statement, but it's worth asking what have Plaid got from "building alliances" in the past?
Well, they eventually lost Ceredigion. After they decided to cosy up to the Welsh branch of Labour they got their fingers burned and endured some of their worst performances in Assembly elections. In 2012 they were booted out of Cardiff Council alongside the Lib Dems, in 2013 they were locked out of a ruling coalition on Anglesey when they expected to be invited to form one, while the not-quite-official endorsement from senior Greens didn't help them much in last year's European elections.
This makes Plaid Cymru's recent endorsement of the EnglandandWales Green Party all the stranger. It's at best baffling, at worst moronic, and it's going to bite them very hard on the backside; not now, but in 2016. That's when their "fair" anti-austerity alliance will turn "foul".
Firstly, by telling voters "in England" to vote Green, they've managed to anger supporters of their Cornish sister party, Mebyon Kernow (two areas where the Greens are expected to do well are Devon and Cornwall). Perhaps they felt Dick Cole, in name and form, might ruin the procession of sisterhood down Whitehall or, more likely, they've forgotten about them because they have better friends now.
Secondly, Natalie Bennett isn't going to win her London seat as she's standing against a parachuted Labour donkey taking over from Frank Dobson. The Greens won't win any Welsh seats this May, and they'll be doing well to keep Caroline Lucas in Westminster. That's first-past-the-post for you, but there's no need for Plaid to offer free endorsements.
Thirdly, the majority of the people walking behind Nicola and Leanne will be Scottish nationalists. As Plaid Cymru should well know, the UK's (unwritten) constitution doesn't say anything about handing out goodies to parties affiliated with more successful ones.
If Plaid want extra powers and fair funding, they need to win the argument in Wales. That means – I know it'll cause heart palpitations amongst Plaid members, but here goes - taking control of the National Assembly for yourselves. You know, repeating what the SNP have done. Becoming a threat. Winning elections on your own.
(UPDATE 05/02/15 : Sport Wales' Prof. Laura McAllister has pretty much said the same thing as me, just put it more eloquently than I have.)
That leads me onto the fourth, and most important, point. Fighting Elections Rule #1 – Never tell people to vote for a party other than your own. Ever.
Plaid Cymru seem to have forgotten that Greens are standing in Wales, have stronger environmentalist credentials than themselves and a growing online presence (helped along by over-eager Plaid activists, with nothing coming from the Greens the other way).
They also have significantly greater visibility across the whole UK, including pictures and print which make their way into Welsh homes. After all, Natalie Bennett is a journalist by profession, so surely that's going to come with useful contacts? If they wanted to they could blow Plaid out of the water.
Plaid have also forgotten that the Greens are standing in next year's National Assembly elections. Current polling (via Elections in Wales) suggests the Greens will take between one and three list seats in regions that will make the position of some sitting, and prospective, Plaid AMs very uncomfortable indeed.
In terms of strategy, it's a bit like a Tory grandee like Ken Clarke or Norman Tebbit telling people in Wales to vote UKIP.
Plaid have built up the Greens – a party which (until the publicity surge at UK level) were ineffectual and would've struggled to make an impact in next year's Assembly elections - into a threat to their own-bloody-seats!
It's still a long way away, but there's now a very realistic chance that Plaid could fall to 8-9 seats in 2016. That will impact their backroom functions and put more strain on whoever's left. It means the resource-intensive campaign on Ynys M̫n in 2013 Рthe justification for which being that losing the election would've cost them a member of staff Рwould've been a waste of time, money and effort.
So it's all smiles, solidarity and locked arms going into May, but at some point in the next twelve months, Plaid Cymru are going to have to take a dagger to their new butties. Unfortunately, the core beliefs of both parties are so similar (nuclear energy and nationalism aside) it's going to be a difficult thing to do without suffering some blow back.
Come 2016, if the Greens in Wales can convince around a fifth of Labour voters to give them their list vote - factoring in those who will switch anyway and the rise of UKIP - oh lawdy are Plaid in for a rough ride!
So forget Westminster; Plaid are love bombing themselves out of the Assembly – the only place they've ever made an impact. If it wasn't so brain dead it would be funny.
(UPDATE 01/02/2015 : Green Party rejects Plaid Cymru call for votes in Wales - via BBC Wales.)
(FURTHER UPDATE 15/02/2015 : Statement from Pippa Bartolotti.)
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