With Huw Irranca-Davies deciding to contest the Assembly election, as you probably already know a vacancy for his Westminster seat will be filled at the same time as the Assembly and Police & Crime Commissioner elections on May 5th.
For the uninitiated, the Ogmore seat covers the three northern valleys of Bridgend county (Llynfi, Garw, Ogmore), Maesteg, Pencoed, the Cefn Cribwr, Sarn and Aberkenfig area as well as the Gilfach Goch, Llanharan and Brynna communities in neighbouring Rhondda Cynon Taf.
It's very much a post-industrial landscape with heavy industry gradually replaced by light industry, high levels of economic inactivity (particularly limiting disabilities) and on-off attempts at environmental and social regeneration – the biggest current proposals being Parc Llanilid near Llanharan and regeneration of the former Budelpack factory in Maesteg. The area has also seen numerous onshore wind developments and is considered a strong candidate for fracking, with several test drilling sites planned or approved.
The formal list of candidates (doc) was released last week (pictured from left to right in the header) :
- Cllr. Alex Williams (Con) – Pencoed Town Councillor for Hendre ward; Assembly candidate for Bridgend in 2011, coming second.
- Cllr. Chris Elmore (Lab) – Councillor for Castleland in Barry on Vale of Glamorgan Council and cabinet member for Children's Services. Stood in Vale of Glamorgan in 2015 Westminster election, coming second.
- Janet Ellard (Lib Dem) – Former languages teacher and worker for a Gloucestershire-based youth homelessness charity. Stood in North Swindon in 2015 Westminster elections, coming fifth place and losing her deposit.
- Abi Thomas (Plaid) – Environmental/sustainability campaigner. First election as far as I can tell.
- Glenda Davies (UKIP) – Former nurse and teacher from Tondu. Stood in Ogmore in 2015, finishing third. In addition she's also a last minute candidate for the Aberavon constituency in the Assembly election.
It's such a safe seat for Labour it's effectively a coronation for whoever they selected and I'm almost doing this as a courtesy to the other candidates.
It hasn't been smooth sailing. Prior to the formal announcement of the candidates, there were accusations of "stitch-ups" and manipulation of the selection process (more from National Left). There was also the prospect that – as an incredibly safe Labour seat – someone senior would be parachuted in as part of the cold war within the UK Labour party between Corbynites/Momentum and New Labour; Jeremy Corbyn's "political secretary", Katy Clark (who lost her seat to the SNP in 2015), was mentioned as a possible parachutee.
Also, although Barry's not a million miles away, I'm surprised the local Labour branch couldn't find anyone who lives in Bridgend county to run for them - which has resulted in shenanigans over Chris Elmore's address. Their decision shouldn't hurt them, but firm local connections tend to count for a lot in seats like Ogmore.
There's very little to add. It would be the greatest upset in British political history if Labour didn't, not only hold Ogmore, but hold it with 40-50%+ of the vote. People expecting a punch on the nose for Jeremy Corbyn will have to look elsewhere.
The interesting thing here is what difference, if any, there'll be in voting patterns between the Assembly constituency and the Westminster one. Will people vote based on different issues - devolved matters in the Assembly one; non-devolved for Westminster? Will they, mentally, place one election at a greater significance over the other and vote that way both times?
If people do decide to vote the same way both times in the Assembly's favour that might boost Plaid Cymru's chances of a second place (they came fourth in 2015) as they traditionally do relatively well in Ogmore during Assembly elections. Equally the opposite if electors vote "Westminster first", which could negatively impact Plaid and boost UKIP and the Conservatives.
Ogmore's Last MP?
Westminster constituency boundaries are to change for 2020 as the number of Welsh MPs is reduced from 40 to 29. This is in order to equalise the size of constituencies (Wales is over-represented by head of population) and reduce the size of the UK House of Commons to 600 MPs.
The current outline proposals will see the Llynfi, Ogmore and Garw valleys merge with Aberavon to form a new constituency. Elsewhere, the Sarn/Tondu and Pencoed areas are set to join the current Bridgend constituency, while the Llanharan and Gilfach Goch areas would transfer to the Pontypridd seat. None of that's set in stone as there'll need to be another boundary review in the next few years - set for 2018 as far as I know.
It's going to be a pain in the backside trying to sort this part of Wales out, with the realistic prospect of future MPs for Afan-Ogwr (or whatever it'll be called) having to travel through another constituency to get to "enclaves" of their own constituency - particularly in the case of the Garw valley.
Anyway, this looks like it's going to be a one-term job. Whoever wins on May 5th is probably going to be the last MP for Ogmore - a heritage that stretches back 100 years - as, in the almost certain event of a Labour victory, it's highly unlikely they would be selected to run over Stephen Kinnock come 2020 (unless a vacancy can be found elsewhere).
