Committees Bite Size #5: June 2017

I thought I'd done the last of these, but there's room for at least one more.

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How will Brexit impact Wales?

(Pic : BBC Wales)

After 6 months of evidence-taking, the Assembly's External Affairs Committee recently published its report on the implications of Brexit (pdf). It's not light reading, but whether you voted for Brexit or not you deserve to be told what's happening behind the scenes.

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Making sense of the "Sardine Express"

(Pic : Wales Online)

It could be written off as dredging social media for stories, but numerous reports over the last couple of months regarding overcrowded Arriva Trains Wales (ATW) services in and out of Cardiff - as well as some longer-distance services to and from Swansea - display what's becoming a very serious problem.

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Assembly Committee Slams Wales Bill

(Pic : BBC Wales)

Last Thursday, the National Assembly's Constitutional and Legislative Affairs Committee published its report into the latest draft of the Wales Bill, which is now in the unelected House of Lords (pdf).

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Boundary Commission Carves-Up Wales

Would you like a slice of De Clwyd a Gogledd Sir Faldwyn?
(Pic : iceandtime.net)

Earlier this week, the Boundary Commission for Wales unveiled their draft proposals for a reorganisation of the 40 Westminister constituencies in Wales.

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The End of the Senedd?

I know many people dream of this, but it's time
to wake them up; silly season's almost over.

2016's silly season has been a classic. The period between the end of July and the start of September always brings out the creative side in politicians, their press officers and producers of yellow journalism as they try to draw attention to themselves, keeping eyes focused on pages and screens amidst other distractions.

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Assembly rejects Trade Union Bill

It's a no from the Assembly....
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Earlier today, the National Assembly voted on the UK Government's highly-controversial Trade Union Bill, which most AMs – and the Welsh Government - roundly criticised last year (AMs take swipe at Trade Union Bill).

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The Draft Wales Bill (Number Two)

(Pic : ITV Wales)

Yesterday, the Welsh Secretary, Stephen Crabb MP (Con, Preseli Pembs.) introduced the draft Wales Bill to the UK Parliament on behalf of the UK Government – you can read it here (pdf).

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AMs take swipe at Trade Union Bill

The post-devolution "partnership working" between unions, employers and employees
in Wales looks set to be threatened by the UK Government's draconian Trade Union Bill.
(Pic : Wales Online)

Shwmae. Yesterday, the Assembly held another backbench members debate, this time related to one of the most controversial laws introduced for a long time in the UK Parliament.

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A Comprehensive Review of Welsh Law-Making

We voted to give AMs law-making powers in 2011, so how has the process been handled since?
(Pic : National Assembly of Wales)

Making new laws is the National Assembly's most important function, though it's a role that – apart from a few high-profile cases like the Human Transplantation Act 2013 – draws little in the way of media coverage or scrutiny.

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Assembly Requests "Clear & Durable" Devolution Settlement

When the Prime Minister and that-other-bloke-who-used-to-be-important
announced their response to Silk II, it looked like we were due constitutional clarity.
So far it's still a bit cloudy.
(Pic : The Guardian)

The Assembly's Constitutional and Legislative Affairs Committee recently reported back on a short inquiry they undertook into the future of devolved powers. This was done in light of Silk Commission Part II, the fallout from 2014's Scottish independence referendum, St David's Day Agreement and the forthcoming Wales Bill – expected to be introduced in the autumn.

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The In-Out EU Referendum Bill

Forty years since the last time the question was put to the public,
the UK is to be asked whether to remain a member of the EU.
(Pic : The Telegraph)

Last Thursday, the UK Government introduced a Bill setting out the arrangements for the forthcoming  referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union.

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Westminster 2015 : The Post-Mortem

Why are we looking at five more Tory years when we could've had this?
(Pic : Wales Online)

In one final visit to the 2015 House of Commons election, it's worth looking in more detail at last Thursday's results in Wales - considering why it happened and what can be learned from it.

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Westminster 2015 : The Results

(Pic : Reuters via The Guardian)

First thing's first - I can rip my crap predictions up. Predicting is a mug's game as the polling companies are finding out to their cost. As has been said elsewhere, it's the most surprising result in a UK election since 1992, even 1945.

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Westminster 2015 : Predictions

Um....

Tonight's the night, so it's time for the real fun to begin....

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Westminster 2015 : The Welsh Battlegrounds

Which Welsh seats are going to be keenly-fought over?
(Pic : BBC)

As we're now into the last fortnight of the 2015 election campaign, it's time to take a closer look at where in Wales the fight for votes might be keenest, and which seats might be more likely to change hands.

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NHS Wales : Who watches the watchers?

Welsh Labour might've been concerned about Ann Clwyd MP giving
evidence to an Assembly committee, but the inquiry produced
productive and sensible proposals for the NHS complaints system.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

While there's a lull in Assembly activity until AMs return from recess, it's worth returning to the committees and what has become one of the more high-profile and contentious inquiries of the Fourth Assembly due to the dirty laundry it aired and embarrassment caused to the Welsh Government.

The Assembly's Health & Social Care Committee undertook a short inquiry on the last day of the Assembly year (16^th July) into the NHS Wales complaints system. As a result, Committee chair David Rees AM (Lab, Aberavon) sent a 17-page letter (pdf) to Health Minister Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West) on August 5th outlining the key issues raised during their investigation.

The inquiry made headlines for more than one reason, the most notable headline being that Labour MP for Cynon Valley, Ann Clwyd, accepted an invitation to give oral evidence following well-publicised personal experiences of patient care at Cardiff's University Hospital.

It was doubly pertinent as the complaints system was one of the main grievances arising from the Andrews Report into care standards at the Princess of Wales Hospital and Neath Port Talbot Hospital in Abertawe Bro Morgannwg Local Health Board (Abertawe Bro Morgannwg : Trusted to care?).

The Key Issues

Fear of reprisals against whistle-blowers and inadequate resources to deal
with complaints were just a few of the concerns thrown up by the inquiry.
(Pic : Daily Mail)

Insufficient independent regulation of complaints – The police, for example, have the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC), but there's no similar body for NHS complaints. The need for such a body was highlighted for those cases where complaints handled by local health boards (LHBs) don't result in any concrete actions. LHBs accept the need for an independent regulator, while the Welsh Government have launched a review of the functions of Healthcare Inspectorate Wales (HIW) as a result of a previous committee inquiry. The Committee recommended that independent complaints regulation be considered by the Health Minister if LHB governance arrangements are "inadequate".

The role of Community Health Councils (CHCs) – This was another area picked out for criticism in the Andrews Report and I've often said myself that I consider CHCs to be largely useless; both as a mechanism of accountability for LHBs and as a result the paralysis caused by a Welsh obsession with setting up committees instead of coming up with new policies. The performance of CHCs was "variable", and there were calls for improved training, improved leadership and greater public awareness of what CHCs are supposed to do (represent patient's views).

Accountability & Leadership – There were two parts to this. The first part dealt with local health boards and trusts. It's said there've been insufficient resources made available to improve management, and a "gap" had developed between the complaints process and boardrooms. Ann Clwyd agreed that the responsibility ultimately lay with LHBs, calling for more openness in how they operate and use of easy to understand language. LHBs have taken steps to improve matters down the years, such as : "ward walks", proactively encouraging patient and staff feedback, meeting with complainants etc. This was welcomed, but the Committee recommended that LHBs take complaints more seriously.

The second part looked at the Welsh Government's role. It was agreed that complaints handling should be considered alongside financial and clinical targets when evaluating the performance of individual LHBs.

Sharing best practice – Due to the variation in performance between individual LHBs, the importance of sharing examples of good complaints handling was flagged up. LHBs said they were keen to learn from each other, but there were concerns that the structure of NHS Wales prevented quick sharing of new ideas.

Staff concerns – UNISON warned that complaints handlers were "under-resourced" and subsequently "under immense pressure". Staff need to be highly trained due to the complex situations they deal with, ranging from dealing with bereaved relatives to co-ordinating complicated clinical information. Cardiff and Vale LHB were, therefore, open to the idea of a national complaints team to deal with the most complex cases. Poor communication from front-line staff was also flagged up as a reason for complaints relating to poor customer service.

Primary care complaints – The current complaints system didn't adequately cover GPs and dentists. LHBs and the British Medical Association (BMA) said that the focus was often on secondary (hospital) care and was therefore not useful enough for primary care. The Committee asked for reassurances from the Health Minister that recommendations from various reviews will apply to all levels of the NHS.

Recording of incidents and complaints – Ann Clwyd said many minor complaints could be "resolved by the bedside". It was also said that lots of minor complaints could be a symptom of bigger issues that could lead to "catastrophic disasters" down the line. The BMA, however, added that logging every minor complaint would be "burdensome". The Committee recommended comment books as a way to log smaller complaints.

Staff support – It's said a "blame culture" in the NHS makes staff afraid to speak out when things are going wrong, with nurses said to be reluctant to fill out incident reports or give their names. Abertawe Bro Morgannwg LHB have subsequently instituted a "See it, say it" campaign to encourage staff, patients and relatives to report issues. Ann Clwyd added that honesty was important so everyone feels they're empowered enough to speak out if something is wrong. Staff should also be able to raise issues openly, but it's said 44% of staff would think twice before whistle-blowing for fear of reprisals.

Complaints data – There's little analysis of complaints data at an all-Wales level and such data is rarely made public. There was support for making complaints data available to the public via the My Local Health Service website – as long as individuals can't be identified.

Response times to complaints – LHBs recognise their response times (there's a 30 day target to issue a final response to a complaint) simply aren't good enough. However, they say quality of response is as important – if not more so – than speed. Face-to-face contact with complainants was said to be important too, as well as maintaining communication with complainants throughout the process. In Powys LHB they've tried to do this by contacting complainants as soon as a complaint has been received to tell them it's being dealt with.

Time for an Independent NHS complaints regulator?

After the committee's recommendations, has the time now come for a national
NHS complaints system to help prevent sad scenes like this being repeated?
(Pic : Wales Online)

The Health Minister hasn't responded to the letter yet, and I presume he'll respond to the committee once the Assembly returns from recess. Most of the recommendations and suggestions from the inquiry are common sense and it's depressing and frustrating that a lot of this hasn't already been done. It could've saved the Welsh Government, AMs, LHBs and families a lot of trouble.

The Public Services Ombudsman is supposed to act as an independent regulator (of sorts), but I suppose we should consider whether all but the most minor NHS complaints need to be dealt with independently at an all-Wales level - perhaps as part of Healthcare Inspectorate Wales' remit. I don't think LHBs and CHCs can be trusted to deal with complaints anymore as too many people have been let down by the current system and there's too much variation between health boards. It's also putting too much pressure on front line staff.

All that was hinted at in the inquiry, and having a team of fully-professional complaints handlers and analysts might take the heat off front-line staff and make it easier to notice trends and patterns which indicate deeper problems at specific hospitals. Making senior charge nurses (aka. matrons) the single point of contact for minor complaints on each ward might make things easier too.

Hopefully it would all feed in to a single transparent complaints system that people know won't be bogged down and shuffled around on bits of paper in board meetings, will be independent of LHBs and won't victimise either staff or complainants.

If the Welsh NHS can start to deal with complaints with candour - and, more importantly, actually deal with problems no matter how small - maybe it'll begin to rebuild the trust that's been lost over the last few years.

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Towards a Cornish Assembly?

Cornish nationalist party, Mebyon Kernow, recently launched a
consultation on the format of Cornish devolution.
(Pic : Western Morning News)

While most of the constitutional focus in Wales has been on Silk II, and constitutional focus across the UK on the Scottish independence referendum, the fifth nation of the UK has thrown its own hat into the ring.

Cornish nationalist party, Mebyon Kernow (MK), launched a consultation document on proposals for a devolved Cornish Assembly on March 5^th – St Piran's Day. It's available here (pdf).

Fifty thousand Cornishmen will know the reason why

As I've covered before (The Case for Cornwall), Cornwall meets most of the standard requirements and historical precedents to be considered a nation rather than an English region or county. Back in 2001, more than 50,000 signed a declaration calling for Cornish devolution. It was Liberal Democrat policy, with the closest Cornwall coming to devolution being a backbench Government of Cornwall Bill (pdf) introduced by Dan Rogerson MP (Lib Dem, North Cornwall) in 2009.

As I post this, the Lib Dems have made it official party policy again.

Many of the problems facing Cornwall are very similar to those facing
us in Wales  - especially in terms of economic development
and demographic change.
(Pic : BBC)

With the UK constitution now in flux, MK believes "there needs to be a mature, respectful and wide-ranging debate about the future of the whole of the UK and how it is governed." A constitutional convention then - something our First Minister and others in the National Assembly would no doubt agree with.

If it's agreed that Cornwall should see devolution, and a detailed proposal fleshed out, MK supports holding a referendum.

Many of the challenges facing Cornwall are all to familiar to us in Wales : an ageing population caused, in part, by in-migration of retirees; high house prices in rural areas, a relatively weak economy (Cornish GDP per capita was 61.2% of the UK average in 2012, compared to 72.3% for Wales) and "peripheral neglect" by being so far from Westminster.

Except, of course, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland have their own devolved legislatures to deal with some of these issues to varying degrees of success (or failure).

MK believe a Cornish Assembly would "be in a strong position to built a more prosperous economy....support Cornwall's traditional and emerging industries, build on Cornwall's sense of place, it's unique brand, and maritime potential".

Chuckles' "Prince of Wales" title is exactly that - a title and nothing more.
His role in Cornwall, however, is significantly more hands on
- perhaps to Cornwall's detriment.
(Pic : The Telegraph)

The party also believe that Cornwall suffers from a "democratic deficit" as they only have 123 councillors serving a population of 534,000 in a single unitary authority. Devon has two and a half times the population but four times the councillors, while Somerset has 1.7 times the population and 3.5 times the number of councillors.

A National Assembly would also reinforce Cornwall's national status, with 73,200 people describing themselves as Cornish in the 2011 census, despite it not being on the official census form, working out at around 14% of the population. Also, 46% of children in the 2013 school census described themselves as Cornish (more from Cornish Republican).There's a very specific bone of contention too involving the Windsor clan. Chuck Windsor (and presumably in the short to medium term, Billy Windsor) enjoys near-feudal rights as Duke of Cornwall. MK believe devolution will make it easier to hold a full inquiry into "Cornwall's ambiguous constitutional relationship with the Crown and contradictions between this....and administrative arrangements".

What would a National Assembly of Cornwall look like?

Mebyon Kernow propose something for Cornwall near enough identical
to what we have in Wales, with some key differences - in particular the voting system.
(Pic : cornwallvsf.org)

• Devolved powers – Effectively the same powers as the Welsh Assembly (agriculture, tourism, health, education, culture, housing, local government etc.) - including primary law-making powers from the start. They also want the power to vary income tax, perhaps in light of what's on the table for Wales and Scotland.
• The Cornish Assembly – 40 Assembly Members (AMs) elected in multi-member constituencies by Single Transferable Vote (STV). This works out as roughly 1 AM per 13,350 people. The exact arrangements and constituencies will be decided by a special commission. Cornish AMs would sit in committees and work in a similar way to our AMs. Although there's nothing in the proposal about where a Cornish Assembly would be based, you would presume it would be at the existing Cornwall Council buildings in Truro without the need for a new building.
• Cornish Government – Made up of between 4 and 6 ministers with "a small number of junior ministers". It would be headed by a First Minister along the same lines as the Welsh Government and supported by a civil service.
• Finance – Cornwall would be funded via a Welsh-style block grant via a needs-based settlement, which MK estimate at being in the region of £4billion. They also want control of EU Structural Funding (Objective One), which Cornwall receives in the same way as West Wales & The Valleys, except it's administered from London and Bristol.
• Local Government Reorganisation – The single local authority covering Cornwall would be rescinded and replaced with four new councils, each with 35-45 councillors, set out by legislation. These councillors would also be elected by STV. Some decisions could be devolved further down to community and parish councils.
• External Relations – Cornwall should have representation on the British-Irish Council, and should have its own MEP, with offices in Brussels. Cornwall should also have its own Commonwealth Games team and the Cornish should be protected via the Convention for National Minorities in the same way as the Welsh and Scottish.

Devolution : Go for it, but don't repeat our mistakes

If a Cornish Assembly were formed,  these signs might have
more than a little bit a truth in them for once.
(Pic : libdemvoice.org)

Wales stands testament to the fact that while devolution does bring a means to make sometimes significant policy changes, it doesn't guarantee success, and is far from a "magic bullet" in itself.

Believe it or not, Mebyon Kernow have been "inspired" by some of the achievements of our National Assembly over the past 15 years (and the Scottish Parliament), picking out :

• Scrapping prescription charges and hospital car parking charges.
• Protection from the "creeping privatisation of the NHS in England".
• Statutory waste and recycling targets with an aim of "zero waste".
• Allowing suspension of "right to buy" in areas facing housing pressures.

So there are plenty of things the Cornish can learn from devolution elsewhere in the UK, but there are also plenty of mistakes they would do well not to repeat. I would pick out mismanagement of EU funds as the biggest lesson Cornwall could learn from Wales, as well as timidity in policy making and having too small a legislature to allow effective criticism of the executive.

Politically-speaking, a Cornish Assembly could throw up some interesting things.

If you want to compare it to Wales, it's likely the Lib Dems and Labour would swap positions, with Cornwall becoming a Lib Dem hegemony and Labour being a minor party that would struggle to get more than 3/4 seats in a 40-seat legislature. It would make the machinations of an STV system interesting for psephologists I suppose – and it's sensible that Mebyon Kernow have proposed that system from the start.

As to how to get in the position of being able to hold a referendum, MK would have to secure their "Gwynfor moment". By that I mean winning, or seriously challenging for, a Westminster seat. Then the party would probably have to become a major force on Cornwall Council, being in a position to form a government or some sort of coalition with the Lib Dems in order to get Cornish devolution on the Westminster agenda.

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Marching out of lockstep

On Tuesday, the National Assembly debated the draft Wales Bill - I outline what the Bill itself proposes here.

Although many parts of the draft Wales Bill should proceed without a hitch, senior figures in Welsh politics have been critical of aspects surrounding the potential partial devolution of income tax, which has - subsequently - had knock-on political consequences.

What the Assembly Said

The Assembly debate was dry, but became interesting for events
outside the Siambr.
(Pic : indymedia.co.uk)

It's grey stuff, but if you want to follow it you can here.

The First Minister started by saying the Silk I recommendations should've been enacted in full, expressing regret at the absence of powers over air passenger duty. He also criticised the "lockstep" on income tax powers -  tax rises/falls have to be set in all income tax bands at the same time. He described it as a "significant restraint" that "ties the hands of the Welsh Government".

He ended by saying the Leader of the Opposition Andrew Davies's (Con, South Wales Central) view - who's spoken out against the lockstep - was closer to his own than that of the Welsh Secretary, David Jones (who supports the lockstep and who introduced the draft Bill).

Leanne Wood (Plaid, South Wales Central) argued that the lockstep prevents Wales from becoming competitive with the rest of the UK. She said the Silk Commission members, Welsh Government and all opposition parties opposed the "lockstep", but the UK Government are pursuing it anyway.

David Melding AM (Con, South Wales Central) broadly supported the draft Bill's provisions, but called for the Assembly to decide its own electoral arrangements and for a name change to Welsh Parliament. He also called for the Assembly to have powers to amend its budgetary procedures, which be believes will be essential should there be fiscal devolution.

Lib Dem Leader, Kirsty Williams (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor), welcomed the non-fiscal measures in the draft Bill, supporting a shared income tax arrangement between the Welsh and UK Governments....though saying the lockstep was unnecessary.

As you can tell, there's a running theme developing here.

Shadow Finance Minister, Paul Davies (Con, Preseli Pembrokeshire), said he was "proud" of the UK Government's record on devolution, citing the 2011 referendum, saying these proposed powers would "provide more financial accountability" to the Welsh Government. He said although he supports a referendum on income tax powers he - surprise,surprise - opposes the "lockstep".

Then things started to get "interesting".

Antoinette Sandbach AM (Con, North Wales) argued with Mick Antoniw AM (Lab, Pontypridd) that the Treasury said there could be no devolved income tax powers without the lockstep. Mick continued by saying the income tax powers (as they are currently) were "worthless", and also outlined his opposition to the removal of a ban on dual candidacy.

Nick Ramsay AM (Con, Monmouth) then described the lockstep argument as "one rather minor aspect". Antoinette Sandbach asked if Nick agreed it were better there were some fiscal devolution – even with the lockstep – than none at all? Nick said yes, saying he "had no issue with the lockstep". Uh oh.

Carwyn Jones was presented with an open goal - considering his own party has been split on the issue -  finishing by saying he "did not think Nick Ramsay would so publicly disagree with his own leader", cheekily suggesting that what Nick said was a leadership speech. Andrew Davies tried to drag Owen Smith's own embarrassing contributions into it, but it was too late.

Although both the debate motion, and Plaid Cymru amendment criticising the "lockstep", were passed with no votes against or abstentions, four Conservative AMs refused to join their party colleagues in voting on the amendment at all.

Bull Lets Whip

After being undermined publicly on party policy, Andrew Davies was
left with no option but to sack four of his Shadow Cabinet.
(Pic : Click on Wales)

The party you would expect to benefit most from fiscal devolution would be the Welsh Conservatives. When the powers were first announced, it was clear their (Welsh) policy would be to cut the top rate of income tax to encourage wealthy people from the rest of the UK to move here.

The lockstep (UK Government policy) prevents them from doing that because cuts to the top rate have to be matched by cuts to the basic rate – making tax cuts (or, indeed, tax rises) more expensive. This has led to a very public spat between Andrew Davies and David Jones over who speaks for the Welsh party and membership, and who decides policy in Wales.

So, as a sort of distraction, the Welsh Conservatives have since switched their public attentions from income tax to cuts to stamp duty – the latter of which would come regardless of a referendum and without any conditions attached.

Following the events of the debate and vote, news broke Wednesday night that four Shadow Cabinet members – the four who refused to vote on the lockstep amendment - had been sacked.

It's a big public slap-down, though I've always questioned why every single opposition AM needs a portfolio responsibility in the first place (Lib Dems aside for obvious reasons).

The South Wales Argus reported Nick Ramsay will also lose his role as chair of the Business and Enterprise Committee as a result. That's a shame because, as regular readers will know, I believe he's done an outstanding job there. Nick described the move as an "old fashioned coup", but last time I checked coups happened against leaders.

Andrew Davies hasn't set the world alight as Leader of the Opposition, but - in my opinion - he was left with no choice after such an open rebellion and challenge to his authority.

It's been said elsewhere that there was, slightly bizarrely, a three-line whip on this vote, which is very unusual for such a technical matter, and shows Andrew wanted his party to back both himself in his tussle with David Jones and his opposition to the lockstep. So I doubt any of the four can have grounds for complaint other than the method by which they were sacked, which seemed hamfisted.

Serves them right.

Andrew's shown decisive leadership, but this will have hurt. These things rarely have happy endings, and the early signs were matters could take a turn for the worse. Since then, it appears he's been given the equivalent of a "vote of confidence". Politics isn't football, but....


Useless

The "lockstep" is a political and fiscal hazard, and another depressing
indication of Westminster's patronising views towards Welsh devolution.
(Pic : via wordpress)

When it comes to Labour party policy in Wales, the party's devolution policy or the Welsh Government's stance, only Carwyn Jones is worth listening to. When it comes to UK Government policy, only David Cameron is worth listening to.

We also have three other party leaders in Wales to flag up Welsh issues. We don't need MPs yapping like chihuahuas over them to give themselves work. At least some MPs know their place.

There are two main reasons why the income tax powers are useless. Firstly, the "lockstep".

The reason Welsh devolution doesn't work properly, and why we have all these tiresome constitutional arguments, is because powers have been incrementally transferred on a piecemeal basis. If we're going to have devolved powers, those powers should be devolved in their entirety – as happens to a great extent in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

That's one of the main reasons I've come round to supporting independence, as promising to give us "tools to do the job", then instead giving us parts of tools, is an insult.

In terms of income tax, that should include the powers :

• To set the rates in their entirety – not just 10p in the pound.
• To create, merge or scrap tax bands.
• To set income tax rates in each tax band independently of each other.

The block grant would be then adjusted accordingly. Wales gets a "grown-up responsible government", parties in Wales would have the freedom to come up with income tax policies in their entirety, and the Welsh Government would be responsible for raising a fair chunk (about a quarter) of its current income.

We're not getting any of that. Instead we could be, effectively, getting income tax powers in name only as no party would want to hike or lower taxes across the board at the same time.

Secondly, there's the referendum.

A referendum on a general principle that the National Assembly should have tax-varying powers would be a referendum worth getting out of bed and voting in. Any tax powers could then be granted after negotiation between the two governments – with or without a fair funding formula in place.

It would also make it easier to devolve other taxes (like corporation tax and air passenger duty) in future, because a referendum yes vote would've given the two governments a mandate to transfer any tax powers at their convenience.

However, a referendum on whether the National Assembly should have the specific power to vary income tax by 10p in the pound in each tax band at the same ti....

I challenge anyone to explain to me how they would campaign in favour of the income tax powers as they are on the table, and how they would explain it to the man or woman in the street?

Why stop there? Why not have a referendum on landfill tax powers? Or business rates? Should we have a referendum on every single legislative consent motion proposed by Westminster in devolved areas?

The First Minister and others are right to say the lockstep renders the powers useless. Welsh Labour have confused things by saying they don't want income tax powers at present, even though they support the implementation of Silk I in full....which would bring income tax powers, subject to a referendum.

Wanting to tax gravel and rubbish, but not incomes (in principle), and using relative underfunding that amounts to around 2% of the block grant as an excuse not to pursue income tax varying powers, verges on the ridiculous.

Whether they like it or not, it underlines an inherent lack of ambition – not necessarily anti-devolutionism - on Welsh Labour's part. You wonder if they're really up to the rigours of running a country, and if instead they should retreat to their comfort zone of local government and move aside for the big boys and girls.

Roger Scully and Richard Wyn Jones warned of this back in November 2012 as Silk Commission Part 1 was reporting back. Richard has since been kind enough to provide a link to the Wales Governance Centre's detailed submission on the draft Wales Bill, and argument against a referendum, here (pdf).

I warned of it too, saying the whole exercise was "pissing into the wind", but what do I know?

If even people like me could see these problems coming 14 months ago, and nobody else foresaw this outcome, then we should all be worried. Some senior personalities in Welsh politics clearly have an excessively idealistic view of how Welsh devolution works. This isn't a union of equals, everyone. Get it into your heads. It never will be.

Bring on the jam. Income tax powers are toast.

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Cold and drafty Wales Bill

The formal UK Government response to Silk I was laid in front of the UK Parliament
just before Christmas. What's proposed? And what does it  mean for Wales?
(Pic : Press Association via BBC Wales)

Back on December 18^th, the UK Government launched the draft version of the Wales Bill (pdf) – the "meat" of the UK Government's response to Part I of the Silk Commission (devolution of limited fiscal powers), but also including changes to the Assembly itself and how AMs are elected.

As it's a draft Bill, it could still significantly change between now and whenever the full Bill is introduced to the House of Commons. Pre-legislative scrutiny of the draft Bill, due to be undertaken by the Welsh Affairs Select Committee, started today.

So, as you might expect me to do, it's worth looking at the draft Bill in a bit more detail.

Taxation Powers

Subject to a referendum, Wales will have the power to vary income tax rates
for defined "Welsh taxpayers". However, are the powers functionally useless?
(Pic : The Telegraph)

The draft Bill proposes as follows :

Miscellaneous Taxes

• Enables the creation of completely new devolved taxes via an Order in Council.
• Removes existing stamp duty collection and management in Wales, granting the Assembly full powers to introduce its own land transaction tax.
• Ditto existing landfill tax collection and management, granting the Assembly control over landfill tax.

Welsh taxpayers

• Defines a "Welsh taxpayer" as someone who's resident in the UK, pays UK income tax, and meets one of the following criteria :
• Has a "close connection" to Wales (presumably as a permanent resident).
• Has no close connections with England, Scotland or Northern Ireland and spends most of the calendar year in Wales over other parts of the UK.
• Is an MP, AM or MEP representing a Welsh constituency.

Income tax referendum

• A referendum on income tax powers will be triggered when the Assembly passes a vote in favour of holding a referendum by a 2/3 majority.
• The Welsh Secretary will have 180 days from the moment a motion's passed by the Assembly, to present an Order calling a referendum to both Houses of Parliament for approval. The Welsh Secretary will also have the power to "veto" any referendum.
• In the event of a yes vote, an Order will be made by HM Treasury indicating when Welsh income tax powers come into force.
• In the event of a no vote, a referendum on the matter could still be called at a later date via an Order in Council.

Income tax powers

If there's a yes vote in a referendum, the draft Bill :

• Gives the National Assembly the power to set a "Welsh rate" of income tax for "Welsh taxpayers".
• Outlines that income tax powers would be similar to those coming into force in Scotland in 2016 (if they don't vote for independence), which will mean income tax rates in Wales will be lowered by 10p in the pound and the Assembly will then set a top-up Welsh rate. However, the tax is "lock stepped", meaning tax rates in different bands can't be set independently of each other. If income tax is raised or lowered by 1p, for example, it has to apply across all income tax bands.
• Outlines various mechanisms by which a Welsh rate of income tax would be collected by HM Revenue & Customs, how tax relief schemes would fit into it, and monitoring HMRC's performance in collecting a "Welsh rate" of income tax.

Borrowing Powers

Although still out for consultation, the new borrowing powers will
almost certainly be used to fund  M4 improvements in Newport.
(Pic : Sabre Roads)

The draft Bill :

• Changes the circumstances by which Welsh Ministers can borrow as set out in the Government of Wales Act 2006.
• Gives Welsh Ministers the power to borrow :
• to manage volatility in receipts and forecasts, where forecasts differ from incomes (revenue expenditure).
• to fund capital expenditure.
• Sets the borrowing limit at £500million for capital expenditure and £500million for revenue/current account expenditure. However, the borrowing limit can be changed by the Welsh Secretary up or down, subject to approval by the House of Commons.
• Repeals borrowing powers relating to the, now defunct, Welsh Development Agency (WDA) - though it doesn't affect any outstanding debts.
• Gives HM Treasury the power to set a cap on housing debt held by Welsh local housing authorities.

Changes to the Assembly

The "WAG" is dead. Long live the "WG"
- although it's already gone.
(Pic : NHS Wales)

The draft Bill :

• Increases the length of an Assembly term from four to five years.
• Will allow Assembly candidates to stand in constituencies and on regional lists at the same time.
• Bans MPs from being Assembly Members at the same time, except where there's a UK General Election within 6 months of an AM being elected an MP (which is unlikely).
• Formally changes the name of the "Welsh Assembly Government" to "Welsh Government" in the Government of Wales Act 2006.
• Places a duty on the Law Commission to provide advice to the Welsh Government directly, and also places a duty on Welsh Ministers to report any reforms in devolved areas proposed by the Law Commission to the Assembly.

Reaction and Conclusions

The proposals aren't that impressive, but one seemingly overlooked point could leave
the door open for Wales to create a completely new tax to replace stamp duty.
(Pic : The Guardian)

I'm not sure whether to call this an important law or not, as you probably know I wasn't impressed with the Silk Commission's recommendations anyway. This is an even further watered down version of that.

It's basically a transplant of some aspects of the Calman Commission's finding's. Silk I was a complete waste of time and effort by all involved, and even key findings of the Holtham and Richard Commissions have been effectively ignored.

I suppose it's a step in the right direction, but the powers – borrowing aside – are piddling. Air passenger duty (APD) has been taken off the table while, for now, there's no mention of non-domestic(business) rates – though I understand business rates will be devolved at some point.

By "lock stepping" income tax powers, any heady ideas Welsh parties had – including, ironically, the Welsh Conservatives – of creating a "dynamic low tax economy" have been blown apart.

Under these proposals, income tax cuts in Wales would be more expensive because changes will have to apply across all tax bands at the same time. The same goes for tax rises - so tax rises for top rate payers would have to be matched by tax rises for basic rate payers.

Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central) seems to have forgotten that, judging by his Click on Wales article today.

The income tax powers, as presented, are functionally useless as - minus an ability to set income tax rates in each band independently from one another - I suspect income tax rates would always be set in line with England to avoid scaring the flock.

Then there's the little matter of convincing Welsh Labour to support a referendum, and winning it off the back of such a mind-numbingly technical matter. As it is, I'd either abstain or vote no. A "hard nat" contemplating voting against further powers for the Assembly - that's how poor a deal this is.

Of course, Scotland wasn't bound to a referendum on Calman. They can ditch the patronisation of Westminster and get real fiscal powers by voting yes in September.

The borrowing powers are long overdue and give the Welsh Government some "grown up" responsibilities. It remains to be seen whether both governments are intent on splashing it up the wall building the Newport bypass, but presumably that's what the borrowing will be used for – at least initially.

The most interesting thing here though is that the wording appears to leave the door open for the Welsh Government to create any tax they want on property transactions – not specifically continuing with stamp duty.

Could that mean Wales could create a "Land Value Tax"? As has been mooted by several people, including Health Minister Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West)?

In terms of the timing, it might've been wiser to have waited until after Silk II, in order to create a new Government of Wales Act with any (potential) new devolved powers wrapped up in a single piece of legislation alongside these financial powers.

This could hint, firstly, that Silk II isn't going to propose anything significant in way of powers; or secondly, that any new powers will simply be devolved via Orders in Council or amendments to the GoW Act 2006. If we're going to move to a reserved powers model though - as many have called for -  I would expect it to require significant primary legislation in Westminster. Time's running out to get than on the table before the 2015 UK election.

The reaction's been muted. The Welsh Government described it as an "important step forward", though they were disappointed that APD wasn't devolved and that income tax powers aren't set out as outlined in Silk I.

As you might expect, the Conservatives and Lib Dems broadly welcomed it, though the latter less enthusiastically than the former.

Plaid Cymru's Westminster group say they'll try to amend the Wales Bill to ensure the full recommendations of Silk I are included, while Leanne Wood recently ruled out campaigning for a yes vote due to the "lock step" provisions which, as I've also said and has been mentioned on National Left, render the income tax powers useless.

The Institute of Welsh Affairs weren't impressed either. Lee Waters used relatively strong terms to – broadly speaking – dismiss the draft Bill as "hollow".

Returning to the Assembly changes, the Electoral Reform Society welcomed the reversal of the ban on candidates standing jointly on constituency and regional lists, though they called for a 12-month "window/overlap" to allow newly-elected MPs to temporarily retain their Assembly seat(s).

That will no doubt be good news for Leanne Wood (Plaid, South Wales Central) and Leighton Andrews AM (Lab, Rhondda) in particular. When Leanne announced in 2012 that she would stand for a FPTP constituency - subsequently Rhondda -  at the time I said it was a "pointless risk". Depending on selection to the South Wales Central list for 2016 and Plaid's performance, there's probably no risk to her seat now. I wouldn't be surprised if we see AMs from all parties standing in constituencies and on regional lists in 2016, as happened prior to 2006.

The "WAG" is formally no more too, though the name changed (unofficially) in 2011. There was an opportunity, I suppose, to rename the National Assembly to something different, like Welsh Parliament.

There isn't anything wrong with the name "National Assembly" anyway (apart from "for Wales" instead of "of Wales" – yes, it's important) and changing it would result in a whole host of issues like re-branding and deciding what to call elected members.

So, all in all - *grunt of apathetic acknowledgement *.

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