Senedd Watch - July 2014

• The Welsh Government introduced the Gender-based Violence, Domestic Abuse & Sexual Violence Bill, which will establish a specialist government adviser and place duties on Welsh and local governments to develop strategies to tackle such violence. Local Government & Communities Minister, Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham), said the law and accompanying public information campaign will “help empower people with information to act in the right way.”
• The Permanent Secretary determined that Natural Resources and Food Minister, Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent), breached the Ministerial Code by lobbying Natural Resources Wales – a body under his ministerial remit - in relation to a motorsports park development in his constituency. The First Minister decided against dismissal, with the minister apologising to the National Assembly on July 1^st.
• Alun Davies was subsequently fired from the cabinet on July 8^th for attempting to obtain private financial information about five opposition AMs relating to Common Agricultural Policy subsidies. He later sent a written apology to the five AMs and apologised to civil servants for “putting them in an awkward position”.
• Opposition parties reacted angrily, with two of the targets – Andrew Davies AM (Con, South Wales Central) and Kirsty Williams AM (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor) demanding a Standards Commissioner investigation and calling into question the First Minister's judgement respectively. Plaid Cymru said the minister had, “played fast and loose with the public trust”.
• As a result of the sacking, the Natural Resources and Food ministerial portfolio was divided between Business & Economy Minister, Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower) and Culture Minister, John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East). Rebecca Evans AM (Lab, Mid & West Wales) was promoted to Deputy Minister for Agriculture & Fisheries. Farming leaders described the arrangement as “confusing”.
• Welsh Lib Dems called for a “Youth Assembly” to replace youth parliamentary organisation Funky Dragon, which is to lose its Welsh Government funding. Aled Roberts AM (Lib Dem, North Wales) said he was “worried young people might be ignored and side-lined in future decisions affecting them.”
• There were renewed calls for a specialist eating disorder unit for children and young adults, after a BBC Wales investigation showed a 75% increase in cases over the last decade. The Welsh Government have committed an extra £250,000 per year towards eating disorders, but Welsh patients were still seeking treatment in England.
• Independent research carried out on behalf of Plaid Cymru suggested their proposed 20p per litre “pop tax” on sugary drinks would reduce the number of obese and overweight people in Wales by up to 21,000. However, it would likely hit those on lower incomes hardest. Welsh Labour reject the idea, believing the tax would only fund extra doctors if sugary drink consumption increased.  It comes as figures showed 10% of children starting school in Wales are obese and 26% of all children had a Body Mass Index (BMI) above 25.
• The Welsh Government announced the target measure of pupils achieving five A*-C grades at GCSE will be replaced by a wider capped score covering nine subjects by 2017. The Welsh Conservatives said this would make it harder to compare performances with the rest of the UK, and believed it was done because current targets are set to be missed.
• A joint report from the Wales Audit Office (WAO) and Healthcare Inspectorate Wales found that Betsi Cadwaladr Local Health Board wasn't “fully fit for purpose”, despite actions undertaken following a highly critical 2013 WAO report which revealed serious management failures.
• The Well-being of Future Generations Bill was introduced to the National Assembly on July 7^th, which will establish a Sustainability Commissioner and make it a legal requirement to consider the needs of future generations in public policy. Opposition parties supported the principle of a sustainable development law, but criticised the Bill's “catch all aims”.
• The First Minister outlined the Welsh Government's official response to the Williams Commission, which could see mergers of Wales' 22 local authorities to 10-12. He said the devolution settlement had made improving services like health and education “more complex”, saying mergers would “protect and improve local services”.
• The Housing Bill was approved by the National Assembly on July 8^th by 41 votes to 12. The Housing Act 2014 will place duties on local authorities to address homelessness and gypsy & traveller sites, as well as introducing a new licensing system for the rental sector.
• Carmarthenshire Council voted to “note” a critical WAO report into unlawful libel indemnities, which will remain suspended indefinitely. It comes as Local Government Minister, Lesley Griffiths – as well as the First Minister – clarified Welsh Government guidance as prohibiting the use of indemnities to allow council officers to undertake libel suits.
• The UK Supreme Court ruled that the Agricultural Sector Bill – introduced to replace the defunct Agricultural Wages Board - fell within the competence of the National Assembly. The First Minister said the ruling was “significant”, while Russell George AM (Con, Montgomery) and Antoinette Sandbach AM (Con, North Wales) criticised “sloppy law-making” despite the verdict.
• Around 70,000 Welsh public sector workers held a one day strike on 10^th July - which affected local councils, job centres, fire services and schools - in protest at pay and pensions restraint. An estimated 1million took part across the UK.
• Children's Commissioner, Keith Towler, said children in care were being still denied access to advocacy services, despite the Waterhouse child abuse inquiry recommending an independent voice for such children in 2000. The Welsh Government rejected the comments, saying they remained committed to children's rights.
• Llywydd Rosemary Butler (Lab, Newport West) became the latest senior Assembly Member to announce they were standing down at the 2016 election. After 40 years in public life as a councillor and then an AM, she said it was, “absolutely right - right for me, right for the party”.
• Former Deputy Minister for Housing & Regeneration, Jocelyn Davies AM (Plaid, South Wales East), also announced she would stand down in 2016. She said that with increasing devolved powers “it was time for a new generation of Plaid Cymru politicians with a fresh outlook”.
• Clwyd West MP David Jones was replaced as Welsh Secretary by Conservative MP for Preseli Pembrokeshire, Stephen Crabb, in a UK cabinet reshuffle on 14/15 July. The new appointee said he would “build upon the excellent work” of his predecessor.
• Several business organisations wrote to the Welsh Government demanding “no delay” to a decision on a possible £1billion M4 bypass of Newport, believing the current M4 is outdated, unreliable and negatively impacts trade and investment into south Wales. On July 16^th, Business Minister Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower) announced the “Black Route” would be given the go ahead.
• Plaid Cymru subsequently withdrew from future budget negotiations based on the “environmentally and financially reckless decision” to give the go-ahead.
• The National Assembly's Environment and Sustainability report into the decision-making process expressed “grave concerns” about the choice of routes, as well as the financial and environmental implications. They believed that unless they received satisfactory answers from the minister, the public consultation should be restarted.
• The First Minister launched the Welsh Government's legislative programme for 2014-15. 10 Bills are proposed covering : planning, tax collection (as a result of the Wales Bill), heritage, environment, local government reform, public health and social service regulation. The Welsh Government also announced legislative measures would be brought in to ban smoking in cars when children are present.
• Bethan Jenkins AM (Plaid, South Wales West) introduced the backbench Financial Education & Inclusion Bill on July 16^th , which will put financial education on the basic school curriculum for 7-16 year olds and place duties on local authorities to direct vulnerable people towards financial assistance.
• Unemployment in Wales fell by 6,000 in the three months to May 2014 to stand at 6.6% - lower than many other parts of the UK. The announcement coincided with the 10,000^th job secured through Jobs Growth Wales.
• Deputy Minister for Tackling Poverty, Vaughan Gething (Lab, Cardiff S. & Penarth), announced the target of 36,000 disadvantaged youngsters receiving its Flying Start childcare services by 2016 was close to being met, with 31,000 enrolled this year – jumping a third compared to 2013.
• Wales experienced the best foreign direct investment (FDI) performance since 1990, creating and safeguarding up to 10,500 jobs from 79 projects, representing 8% of the UK total in 2013-14. Despite this, the Welsh Conservatives said it fell short of the levels experienced when the Welsh Development Agency existed.
• A Public Accounts Committee report into the Cardiff-Anglesey air link found “significant value for money concerns” after passenger numbers fell by 43% since launch in 2008. They recommended better marketing of the service, and improved recording of passenger usage by overall number and employment sector. Committee member Mike Hedges AM (Lab, Swansea East) criticised the inquiry as “simplistic and superficial”.
• Culture & Environment Minister John Griffiths said it would be “entirely fitting” for Wales to bid to host the Commonwealth Games, but said there was a lot to consider before any bid can be made. Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood (Plaid, South Wales Central) supported a bid, saying it would “lead to many positive spin-offs for Wales”. The First Minister later made no guarantee Wales would make a bid, or that the event would be held in Cardiff.
• The Assembly's Finance Committee recommended – in their inquiry on the future devolution of tax and borrowing powers - that the Welsh Government adhere to OECD guidelines, provided detailed budgeting and that the Assembly grants approval of borrowing. Chair Jocelyn Davies AM said it was “critical that there is a robust and in-depth process of scrutinising....spending plans”.
• The Welsh Government's Advisory Panel of Substance Misuse recommended a minimum price for alcohol which would “protect vulnerable people, boost public health and improve community life”. The measure is expected to be included in the proposed Public Health Bill, due to be introduced in 2015.
• A Business & Enterprise Committee inquiry into EU programmes recommended a full EU strategy be developed, and that specialist support be provided to key economic sectors. It was also revealed that Wales submitted no bids for transport funding under the EU's TEN-T programme.
• The Assembly's Communities and Local Government Committee inquiry into local libraries recommended improvements in data collection, and more Welsh Government support to enable libraries to access all forms of finance. There were more than 14.7million visits to Welsh libraries in 2011-12.
• Health Minister, Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West), said cross-border transfers for heart surgery patients would continue until at least 2015 in order to cut waiting times. It comes as an NHS Wales report showed heart disease cases were falling, but death rates in deprived areas of Wales remained up to a third higher than less deprived areas.

Projects announced in July include : A £10million grant scheme to provide childcare and play opportunities to families in poverty; an announcement that all NHS Wales staff will be paid a minimum £7.65 per hour “living wage”; a six-year £953million joint Wales-EU Rural Development Programme; a 10-year Business Skills Gateway to address skills shortages; plans for a comprehensive £100million redevelopment of Cardiff Central station starting in 2020 and a joint Wales-UK pilot of a “National Citizen Service” for young people.

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Does Wales make the most of EU opportunities?

                            

It's been a while. There've been many changes. Nick Ramsey has no doubt been stumbling through the Ty Hywel corridors to Every Rose Has Its Thorn.

However, I couldn't resist returning to the rock stars of the Assembly Committee world – Business & Enterprise – and their inquiry report into EU funding opportunities from 2014-2020, which was launched at Cardiff's Chapter Arts Centre last week (pdf).

A lot of this work overlaps with the Constitutional & Legislative Affairs Committee inquiry into the Welsh role in EU decision-making.While that inquiry focused on the political and constitutional situation, this one was more focused on the economic, cultural and financial side of things.

The one thing you can take from both inquiries is the need for a clear strategy on Welsh involvement with the EU. It's a point raised before, but Scotland and the Republic of Ireland have a "more joined up approach" than we do. Meanwhile, concerns that EU funds in Wales have been misused, or Wales being constantly "left off the map", mean a revision of the Welsh Government's EU strategy is long overdue – something Finance Minister Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan) is considering.

There were 16 recommendations in total, summarised as :

• Ensuring any future EU strategy (Wales in Europe : What role do we play?) sets clear objectives and maximises Welsh involvement in EU programmes.
• Developing tailored support; including the creation of an EU Funding Champion, a central contact point for EU funds and specialist support for the youth, transport and education sectors.
• Addressing gaps in Welsh representation in Brussels (also raised in the Welsh EU role inquiry)
• Setting clear objectives for Welsh universities to promote both studying abroad and  language courses as well as creating an alumnus of international students.
• Local Government should develop their own action plans to make best use of EU funds.
• Champion the Welsh creative sector in Europe, ensuring they're not disadvantaged in applying for EU funding because of the UK's strong TV industry.
• Develop a closer working relationship with DG Move and TEN-T executives in Brussels - as well as the Irish – to ensure Wales gets the most out of pan-EU transport programmes.

EU Programmes – What are they?

When discussing "EU Programmes" in Wales, you'll automatically think "Objective One" (Structural Funds) or the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). There are, however, EU schemes that cover other activities and sectors worth up to €42billion. The inquiry focused on how Wales engages with these programmes and what can be done to ensure we get the most out of them.

These programmes include :

• Erasmus+ (€14.7bn)
• Connecting Europe/Trans-European Transport Networks (TEN-T) (€15bn)
• Regional Cooperation (INTERREG) (€8.7bn)
• Creative Europe (€1.46bn)
• Competitiveness of Small & Medium Sized Companies (COSME) (€2.03bn)

There's also the Horizon 2020 scheme which covers science and technology, but this wasn't within the inquiry's remit.

Welsh engagement with EU programmes

The EU Commission's Creative Europe programme helped fund Y Gwyll, but there were
concerns that the strength of the UK's media sector may disadvantage Wales.
(Pic : The Guardian)

Although Wales engages with many of these programmes – like INTERREG, Creative Europe and some of the education programmes - a recurring theme is that the high priority and narrow focus given to structural funds (Objective One and CAP) has limited Welsh involvement elsewhere.

There are specialist European officers in local government and higher education – often with a presence in Brussels – but there's nothing similar for the youth, private and voluntary sectors. The benefits from participating in these programmes are potentially huge and such groups may be missing out unnecessarily.

In the Welsh Government's evidence they say some programmes are easier to work with and win funding from than others, so they often had to target their resources carefully. They intend to review how they interact with the EU, but with no set timetable. This led to the Committee supporting previous calls for a full EU Strategy, citing the Irish and Danish governments own successful strategies.

It was said Wales isn't "as switched on" as other countries, with an example given of one academic who was working with the INTERREG programme having no contact whatsoever with the Wales European Funding Office (WEFO). There was also a lack of proper communication with businesses, with calls for a "clear contact point" based outside Wales for foreign companies looking to work with Welsh partners.

There was a specific focus on the creative industries sector, and the EU programme Creative Europe. The EU Commission's media programme "provides support for film productions from pre-production through to distribution, primarily in the form of direct grants to companies and organisations". This scheme provided support towards the production of Y Gwyll/Hinterland.

Media Antenna Wales – part of the Welsh Government's creative industries team – provides support to companies and producers seeking to work with Creative Europe, often helping them negotiate the bureaucracy and form-filling that comes with EU programmes. This level of specialist support was praised and said to be something to emulate in other sectors.

There was, however, a worry that because the UK has a "strong audio-visual industry" overall, Welsh creative companies would be overlooked or disadvantaged when applying for EU funds. Better Together?

International Mobility

Although Wales attracts its fair share of Erasmus funding and
participation, twice as many students are incoming as outgoing.
(Pic : BBC)

Erasmus, now reformed into Erasmus+, is a general exchange programme aimed at all aspects of the university sector. The British Council is in charge of this at a UK level and says Wales is "attracting its share of the budget in relation to population size" (€11million between 2006-07 and 2012-13).

The benefits of participating in Erasmus are said to include : greater employability, improved self-esteem and there was evidence that academic performance improves too. There's also a knock-on impact to universities themselves, as Erasmus can leave a good impression on students studying here and could be adapted to provide a trade boost that runs into the tens of millions of pounds.

One big barrier is that there are twice as many incoming students to Wales as there are outgoing. Lower Welsh take-up rates are said to be down to numerous factors like : language barriers, lack of engagement by academics, lack of awareness, financial problems and lack of confidence. Also, participation was markedly lower from "new universities".

Cardiff University's Prof. Colin Riordan set a target of 17% of graduating students spending some study time abroad by 2017, having set up a £1.6million bursary fund to help achieve it. At the moment the rate is 12%.

Despite his ambition being praised, these levels of participation fall far short of Germany, which has a 50% target. Prof. Riordan said levels of engagement on this matter with the Welsh Government were "low" and that it wasn't afforded a high level of status.

Colegau Cymru suggested the creation of a "one-stop shop" within the Welsh Government for lifelong learning programmes, while Swansea University suggested the Welsh Government could do more to help universities and colleges access EU funding programmes.

There was also confusion over youth volunteering and youth work. The British Council no longer want to work with devolved bodies on this (in Wales' case Connect Cymru), but said that was because they're changing how they're working with them as there was little evidence of the benefits and effectiveness of youth work and youth volunteering programmes.

International Co-operation

A lot of the Welsh participation in INTERREG is wrapped up in the Ireland-Wales programme.
(Pic : EU Commission)

There were 89 INTERREG projects in Wales during the 2007-13 funding period, attracting €41.5million in EU funding. Most of this went towards Irish-Welsh co-operation.

Colegau Cymru said there are specific challenges here, as in order to get funding, projects need to be managed not only across institutions but across borders around the EU. Milford Haven Port Authority also said there hadn't been enough engagement with the private sector.

Local councils say that while they've participated in programmes like INTERREG, much of their focus has been on structural funding (Objective One, European Social Fund) and rural development. They pointed towards the lack of Welsh Government advice and contacts, with Conwy Council adding – in rather parochial terms – that "their only priority is their own local area".

The Committee underlined the lack of a joined-up approach, but also a lack of ambition by local councils, which is "in marked contrast to the further education sector". They called on the WLGA to display leadership.

Trans-European Transport Networks (TEN-T)

Wales - left off an EU map....again.
And the Welsh Government hasn't helped matters either.
(Pic : ITV Wales)

TENT-T is described as a "set of strategically significant road, rail, air, water transport networks" identified by the EU as particularly important to the internal market.

Wales isn't currently on any of the core network corridors, though Business & Economy Minister, Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower) said Welsh experts were sent as part of the UK team when drafting the maps. Milford Haven and the north Wales coast mainline were subsequently added at the request of the UK Government.

Milford Haven Port Authority say there's a significant amount of money that could be available to Wales to develop freight facilities, but too much focus has been on passengers. Holyhead was also excluded from TEN-T as a core port, despite its pretty important role in linking Great Britain to Ireland – though it falls short of Liverpool in terms of tonnage.The Committee say that the negotiating process between Cardiff, London and Brussels was "confused and opaque".

Also, in an astonishing admission, Wales didn't make any applications to, and secured no funding from, the TEN-T programme as of January 2014. Edwina Hart has confirmed, however, that a business case for improvements to the Crewe-Holyhead railway through TEN-T is underway.

The Answer : "Wales could do more"

To repeat myself, there's a clear need for some sort of high level strategy – as much as I loathe such things – and many of the Committee's recommendations make sense. EU programmes also have to be put in a much wider context than structural and agricultural funds as they have important cultural and educational aspects as well.

The lack of proper engagement with TEN-T, however, is a hidden national disgrace and signifies incredible laziness on the part of the Welsh Government. Even a slither of TEN-T funding could've gone a long way towards bringing forward projects like rail electrification or upgrading parts of the A55. I suppose they deserve credit for getting the ball rolling on the north Wales mainline at least.

I suppose in a way this is a complement or follow-up to my 2012 post -"What Wales gets from the European Union".

The answer is, quite clearly, "a lot". If the Welsh Government properly organised itself and started to put the work in the answer would be "even more" - and not just in monetary terms.

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M4 Newport - The Committee Strikes Back

It's the committee report AMs couldn't wait to read, containing heavy
criticism of the Welsh Government's decision on the M4 around Newport.
(Pic : transportxtra.com)

The saga from the start :

• Welsh Government's reprioritised National Transport Plan (7.12.11)
• M4 Newport consultation and rail upgrades in Gwent (11.3.12)
• A Cunning Infrastructure Plan (26.5.12)
• Newport's M4 coronary bypass (5.10.13)
• Cold and drafty Wales Bill (7.1.14)
• Newport's M4 debate painted black and blue (10.7.14)
• Newport M4 - Smell the Glove (17.7.14)

It's led to rows, hypocrisy, (minor) backbench rebellions, and has turned out to be one of the more controversial committee inquiries in the Assembly's short history.

Towards the end of last week, the National Assembly's Environment and Sustainability Committee published their eagerly-anticipated report into the decision-making process which led to the announcement, on July 16^th , that the £1billion M4 "Black Route" around Newport will be given the go-ahead.

The report itself (pdf) is short and to the point compared to other Assembly committee reports, and well worth a look regardless of your opinion on the M4 bypass scheme itself.

From the outset, the Committee say they were disappointed that neither the minister in charge, Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower), or the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) – one of the biggest cheerleaders for the bypass – appeared before them to give oral evidence.

The Committee have "grave concerns" about the consultation process which led to the Black Route being selected, but they stress that they make no observations on the "merits of any particular route". They believe that had the minister properly engaged with them, many of those concerns would've been addressed.

The Committee subsequently made a single recommendation; that Edwina Hart answers all of the questions and concerns raised in their letter to her on June 5^th (pdf).

They go on to say that if the minister can't answer their questions to their satisfaction, then consideration should be given to restarting the public consultation process to ensure that all concerns (below) are taken into account and that all alternatives to the Black Route are considered.

The Committee's Concerns

                          

The route selection process – It's questioned whether the process of choosing a route met the EU's Strategic Environment Assessment (SEA) directive. In the first consultation (2011-12 M4CEM), a completely new motorway wasn't included as an option. Then, it was included as an option in the second consultation carried out in 2013-14. This suggests the SEA process hasn't been followed correctly, as the sudden change in heart on the need for a bypass would contradict the environmental reports issued alongside each consultation.

The choice between purple, red and black routes (2013 consultation) – The choices on offer with regard a route for an M4 bypass were too similar to each other to "allow a meaningful comparison as required by the SEA directive". It also hasn't been made clear whether the Blue Route has been fully assessed by the Welsh Government to SEA standards.

The environmental report – Natural Resources Wales (NRW) say some of the concerns they raised weren't included in the final environment report. NRW flatly disagree with many of the conclusions in said report, which underplayed the impact on biodiversity, and provided incomplete assessments of  greenhouse gas emissions, water quality, landscape and townscape impacts.

Consideration of public transport (or lack of) – Possible public transport options and the South Wales Metro scheme haven't been given full consideration. They should've been weighted directly alongside the M4 proposals as they could have a big impact on the underlying case for a bypass.

Validity of traffic forecasts – Traffic forecasts on the M4 are produced using the UK's Department for Transport (DfT) forecasting methodology. However, in the past this methodology has – according to leading academics – predicted big growths in traffic volumes and car ownership when levels have actually remained flat. There should've been a more flexible traffic prediction methodology based around varying scenarios, but it's not something the Welsh Government can do themselves as DfT are very protective of their forecasting models. If traffic growth doesn't match the DfT's unreliable forecasts then the M4 bypass will be a waste of money. So the case for a bypass is partly reliant on traffic increasing. That's very "unsustainable".

Costs – It's unclear if environmental mitigation measures, or the future of the A4810 Steelworks Road, have been factored in to the estimated costs of the Black Route. Also, the proposed capital borrowing limit as set out in the Wales Bill (£500million) is only half the estimated total cost of the scheme. Therefore, there's a lack of clarity on how future borrowing powers would be used, and the impact the bypass would have on finances available for transport projects like the Metro. The Committee say it's "difficult to conclude....that a convincing case for the long-term value for money of this investment has been made".

Executive Decisions demand Executive Answers

There's no obligation on ministers to follow through on any recommendations made by an Assembly committee - it's just a good idea to do so. If Edwina Hart wants to ignore this she can, though it would probably make it more difficult for the Welsh Government to win any legal challenge (if it goes that far), as it looks like the Welsh Government haven't gone about this in a professional way and are washing their hands with democratic scrutiny.

Without question, something has to be done to the roads in and around Newport. I'm not blinkered enough to think the solution lies in public transport and "active travel" alone.
 
But you get the impression the Welsh Government wanted a new M4 from the start, they just realised they couldn't afford it. As soon as borrowing powers came into the picture – fuelled by the enthusiasm from Whitehall to give Wales "fiscal responsibility" – the Welsh Government decided to press forward with this while they still had a window of opportunity.

So we ended up with a public consultation that was effectively based around three minor variations of a single option and what appear to be "sexed-up dossiers".

Edwina Hart has done the position of economy minister proud so far, so it would be a real shame if she ends up pushing through something she may later come to regret. Maybe a bypass really is the right option, but it has to be handled conscientiously. That clearly hasn't happened.

This is one of the single largest capital investments in Welsh history, standing at the equivalent of about 65% of the Welsh Government's total annual capital budget. It's serious stuff that deserves proper answers from the minister before anyone can think of getting the project underway.

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End of Year Report 2014

As the legislative year comes to a close, it's time to take yet another
look at the performance of the Welsh Government and opposition.
(Pic : cityofcardiff.com)

• Report 2011-12
• Report 2012-13

Carwyn Jones (Lab, Bridgend)
First Minister & Minister for the Welsh Language

C+ overall; D Welsh language (C for effort)

Until the torrid last fortnight, the First Minister had rarely been seriously challenged in the Senedd - except on specific issues in Bridgend which could have been embarrassing, as well as stalled work on the Williams Commission. You can argue there should've been a full cabinet reshuffle this month as the splitting of Alun Davies' old portfolio is clunky - though it's been said a full reshuffle before 2016 is likely.

I believe the heart's there when it comes to the Welsh language. It's just Y Gynhadledd Fawr didn't tell us anything we didn't already know. Despite all that's been said there's been very little evidence of action, leading to the (rather ineffectual) protests from Cymdeithas yr Iaith. Welsh language campaigners have always been an awkward squad, but Carwyn's lucky it's not the 1960s anymore. I'm sure his recent Twitter "spat" underlines to him how much of an uphill battle he's got here.

You can argue that May's results were disappointing for Labour, who seemed confident they would take two seats without putting any work in. UKIP's surge caught them off guard and it's also reflected in recent polling which suggests Labour could lose seats in 2016. They neglect the fact that a lot of people aren't happy with what they're doing in Wales and, yes, they're just as likely to lose votes to UKIP too.The opposition are were being held at bay, the economy is showing signs of recovery, the Welsh NHS is still the Welsh NHS we all know and are concerned about, while his calls for a UK constitutional convention continue to fall on deaf ears - presumably dependent on September's outcome. Steady as he goes.

Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney)
Minister for Education

C+

There've been three big problems Huw Lewis has had to deal with with year, two of which he inherited. The first being the poor PISA results, which resulted in the extensive OECD investigation. The second was a significant increase in the amount spent to fund Welsh tuition fee policies. Somehow, Huw managed to kick a review of higher education funding into touch and we won't see the results of the Diamond Review until September 2016.

His response to January's GCSE marking row showed a willingness to act quickly under pressure and to accept criticism gracefully. His decision to create a separate law on special education needs also showed he was prepared to listen to committees and AMs. He has a lot on his plate, obviously, but I'd argue that he's coping with it relatively well. Education's still a results game, though.

Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower)
Minister for the Economy, Science & Transport

B

It's hard for Edwina Hart to take all the credit, but she's certainly playing a role in the fleeting semblance of an economic recovery taking place in Wales, with unemployment now below the UK average. The main developments in her portfolio this year have been the early groundwork laid for the South Wales Metro scheme – which is about 10 years overdue – and the creation of city regions. Another major coup was managing to get Pinewood Studios to set up a base in Wales.

She's a worker, not a shirker, but it remains to be seen if other flagship policies like her version of enterprise zones are going to bear fruit. Also – even speaking as a rather private person myself, and especially after Wednesday's announcement – I believe she needs to do more to keep the rest of the Assembly informed of what she's up to outside the chamber. She's a poor communicator, but good at her job.

Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan)
Minister for Finance

C+

Quite a bit of work's been done to increase procurement from Welsh-based companies. Though it's disappointing that, in an election year, more hasn't been done/said regarding the future of EU funds in Wales, which even senior Labour figures are beginning to feel haven't been used wisely. I don't think Jane has been forceful enough on the "lockstep provisions" in the Wales Bill either, which has now simply become something to bash the opposition with.

These remain straightened times for the Welsh budget, and Jane Hutt is continuing to do a reasonable enough job without pulling any rabbits out of hats. She did, however, dish out a tough deal to Welsh local government and further education colleges in the 2014-15 budget which seemed harsh in some respects.

Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West)
Minister for Health & Social Services

D (C for effort)

Another year where the Welsh NHS stumbles from problem to problem.

It's clear Mark's made an impact, but not to such an extent that the issues plaguing health services have been turned around. We're still waiting for progress in ambulance response times, mortality rates and the future of certain specialist services. Considering his background, I would've expected him to have understood the need for evidence-based laws too, which is a shame.

He's so far resisted Welsh Conservative calls for a "Keogh-style inquiry". I'd agree that a full blown public inquiry is unnecessary because action is more important than another bloody panel or committee - but we're one big tragedy or scandal away from it.

Even if Mark remains the best-suited person for the job, his response (or lack of) to concerns from families affected by problems in Abertawe Bro Morgannwg health board, and campaigners from Pembrokeshire, verged on a high-handed arrogance which is – unfortunately – becoming typical behaviour from Welsh ministers.

Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham)
Minister for Local Government & Leader of the House

C+

In terms of local government, this year's been dominated by the budget cuts and the Williams Commission, both of which Lesley seemed to play second fiddle to the First Minister and Jane Hutt in terms of being the public face. Ultimately, it'll be her responsibility to implement those recommendations and manage angry council chiefs – which will be a challenge in itself.

I welcome the ongoing commitments made to increase transparency in local government - things like webcasts and social media use in council chambers. There was also a major report into improving the diversity of local government, though it remains to be seen if anything will actually happen as a result. The Welsh Government's reasonable track record in dealing with community safety continues with the pledge for 500 extra PCSOs met and sustained, albeit being an underwhelming pledge in itself.

Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside)
Minister for Housing & Regeneration

B-

Carl's dished out quite a bit of regeneration funding, including (the slightly controversial) Vibrant and Viable Places. The Welsh Government clearly want results this time round and don't want to hand out grants and funds for the sake of it.

He's also overseen the passage of the comprehensive Housing Act. It's not everyone's cup of tea, but he's shown a clear commitment to reducing homelessness and an unyielding commitment to addressing domestic abuse – the new Bill being very much his baby, I suppose.

His management of the planning system is likely to become a thorn in his side, as controversy continues over Local Development Plans and opencast mining. The forthcoming Planning Bill looks set to centralise decision-making in light of planning still being – in many respects – only part-devolved. It's right to question whether Welsh priorities are relevant here or are being thrown aside as part of EnglandandWales?

Jeff Cuthbert (Lab, Caerphilly)
Minister for Communities & Tackling Poverty

C

A minister struggling to find a purpose, though that's not entirely his fault. He's done some good work on credit unions, which seem to become bigger year by year. However, cuts to Funky Dragon risk undermining the National Assembly's engagement with youth at large.

The Well-being of Future Generations Bill – which really should've been up there as one of the most important pieces of legislation in the Assembly's history – turned out to be a woolly disappointment. I was also surprised at his negative attitude to the "FinEdBill" which would, in part, complement his brief and what he's trying to do.

Presumably, policing will eventually fall under this portfolio (if it's devolved on time) and that will increase the visibility and importance of this cabinet position. Until then, although he means well he can't really do much and a lot of his ministerial functions seem to cross over with local government. It's a confused portfolio that needs a firmer sense of purpose more in chime with devolved powers as all the big levers are reserved to Westminster.

John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East)
Minister for Culture

C

This portfolio has certainly been the Welsh Government's blind spot due to the challenging environment caused by harsh cuts to local authority budgets and wider austerity – where the arts, sport and culture are almost always the first up on the chopping board; a situation that's continued unabated.

He's clearly getting out and about and seems to be balancing many plates with skill. John also seems keen to listen to the rest of the Assembly. But you get the impression he's under pressure to try and deliver things he knows he won't be able to deliver, so he sits on the fence too often. He was perhaps always more comfortable with the environment brief and that's probably why it was given back to him.

Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent)
(Former) Minister for Food & Natural Resources

F

A mixed record - that displayed both his strengths and weaknesses - has been tarnished by a few moments of rank stupidity.

Theodore Huckle QC
Counsel General

B

He's been a busy guy it's fair to say, and now has two Supreme Court "victories" under his belt with the third case on the way. AMs are starting to make better use of their opportunity to question him in plenary, though Simon Thomas AM (Plaid, Mid & West Wales) remains the most likely person to put him on the spot.

After the big UK reshuffle, he's outlasted his Whitehall "adversary" Dominic Grieve QC, though that could be because the Prime Minister was getting fed up with losing court cases to the Welsh Government. It remains to be seen whether new Attorney General, Jeremy Wright, will be more forceful in future encounters. Until we have a reserved powers model, further call-ins of Welsh laws are inevitable.

Junior Ministers

Gwenda Thomas (Lab, Neath)
Deputy Minister for Children & Social Services

B-

The Social Services and Wellbeing Act 2014 is the most challenging and complex law since devolution, and the proposed bill on Social Service Regulation promised to be another one. It's led to the creation of a new National Adoption Service and guarantees minimum rights for carers – Wales' unsung heroes. Gwenda's also overseen the transfer of care for the elderly from hospital to the community – but this hasn't been done urgently enough, leading to negative story lines and serious failures in hospital care. Another solid, but very testing year.

Vaughan Gething (Lab, Cardiff S. & Penarth)
Deputy Minister for Tackling Poverty

C+

He suffers from the same problem as his reporting minister Jeff Cuthbert. It's a small department with a small budget but an important remit. It's hard to tell what Vaughan actually does, but it appears to boil down to the micromanagement of schemes like Flying Start – though he appears to be making very good progress there.

He's shown inside and outside the Senedd chamber that he's a very capable and confident public speaker – something of a rarity in Welsh politics - but he needs a bit more time in the ministerial incubator. He'll almost certainly be bumped up to a more senior cabinet position prior to 2016 in order to properly challenge him, as you get the impression he isn't being so at the moment.

Ken Skates (Lab, Clwyd South)
Deputy Minister for Skills

B+

A quiet success story, overseeing a significant increase in the number of apprenticeships and successful job applicants through Jobs Growth Wales, playing a big part in reducing overall unemployment levels – albeit with youth unemployment still remaining relatively high.There was recent criticism that Jobs Growth Wales isn't reaching those most in need of a job or training – but all in all he's performing well, added to by the recent announcement of a new 10 year plan to address skills shortages in the private sector.

It's good to focus on vocational skills and apprenticeships but the Welsh Government should start thinking about graduates and postgraduates. Cuts to Young Enterprise could be a backwards step and he seems too fond on using Assemblese. He definitely looks the more likely of the "newbies" to make the step up to a full ministerial post at the moment.

Opposition Leaders

Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central)

C+

I'm sure many people will disagree, but compared to previous years this has been a good one for the Leader of the Opposition. He had a very strong end to the Assembly year, and came into his own during the recent debate on safe standing.

I don't question for a moment his sincerity on the NHS. It's just after seeing what's happening in England, it's not as if the Conservatives can be trusted to run the NHS properly either. The failings are almost identical just with different numbers involved. The Welsh Tory housing proposals seemed, in some respects, odd and based off poor maths. While a campaign against junk mail seemed whimsical. He's also perhaps way too easy to wind up compared to the more calm disposition of the First Minister.

Back in February it looked like he was a goner after the sudden sacking of four shadow cabinet members (subsequently reinstated) over the "lockstep" row. He was criticised for both the sackings and the manner by which he did it, but as I said at the time he was left with no other choice.

He's been half-vindicated by recent developments with regard Scotland (they won't have a "lockstep"), further added to by David Jones' exit from UK cabinet. If that had rumbled on another year I would've been surprised to see him lead the Welsh Tories into the 2016 elections, but his position is arguably stronger than ever now.

Leanne Wood (Plaid, South Wales Central)

B- personally; C party

July 2013 : "My gut instinct tells me the coming year will be tough, but manageable".

I was probably right. Plaid had made little progress in the polls until recently but, to be fair, they haven't gone backwards either. They also managed to get another set of budget concessions though (alongside the Lib Dems), a convincing by-election win on Anglesey and are producing a steady stream of good policy ideas and proposed laws. Leanne also made the right decision to streamline her "cabinet".

You don't last in frontline politics for 40 years unless you've got something between your ears, so Dafydd Elis-Thomas AM (Plaid, Dwyfor Meirionnydd) was correct, just his usual self. The attack on UKIP at the party's spring conference was miscalculated, and in hindsight there's irony in that UKIP's strong performance saved Jill Evans' seat – to a great deal of relief, I'd imagine.

Plaid are now part of the same "establishment elite" anti-politics voters turning to UKIP are railing against, exemplified to a certain extent by the classic groupthink in relation to Michael Haggett. They can't keep counting on their increasingly demographically-squeezed heartland vote to sweep them home either, while they're always outnumbered in the south and north east.

Next year looks promising in terms of target seats, but if Plaid want to seriously challenge in 2016, they need to stop looking in the mirror - basking in their inflated self-esteem as a party - and see May's result as a much needed kick up the arse before the electorate kicks it for them. Pride comes before a fall and all that.

Kirsty Williams (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor)

B personally; D party

Kirsty Williams has consistently proven to be a capable stateswoman, arguably being the most effective opposition leader in terms of picking apart the Welsh Government. She also won a ballot and will introduce a law on minimum nursing levels in hospitals – and I'll come back to that when the Bill's introduced.

Unfortunately, her party's prospects aren't looking good due to the metastasis of the very deadly cleggoma and secondary infection of dannyalexanderitis. I suppose the most galling aspect of that is that Lib Dem AMs haven't really put a foot wrong and have usually been pretty good at holding ministers to account.

You can't really read much from the European elections as the Lib Dems have always performed poorly, but it's not looking good for them in 2015 or 2016. It would be a shame if Kirsty is left a party of one – losing very capable AMs in the process - as the Welsh electorate sends the clowns in to Cardiff Bay.

Special Mention : The latest Standards Commissioner report (pdf) showed that there were no admissible complaints about AMs in the year April 2013- March 2014. I don't know if they deserve a gold sticker or a trip to Folly Farm or something....

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National Assembly stands up for safe standing

They took their bloody time getting to it – this was originally raised as far back as February 2013 (Could safe standing be coming to Wales?) - but last Wednesday, the National Assembly debated a  cross-party motion on "safe standing" at football stadiums.

The motion :

• Noted the "overwhelming appetite" amongst supporters to re-introduce terracing.
• Called upon the Welsh Government to work with sports bodies to promote safe standing areas at football grounds.
• Called upon the UK Government to consider a safe standing pilot in Wales.

The debate followed a visit of the Football Supporters Federation (FSF) Safe Standing Roadshow to the Senedd back in June, where AMs were able to see a demonstration model in order to properly inform their views.

What is "safe standing"?

AMs were recently able to see close-up how "safe standing" works.
(Pic : Football Supporters Federation)

I went over this last time around, but it's worth briefly covering again.

Terracing was phased out within top-flight EnglishandWelsh football grounds following the 1989 Hillsborough Disaster and subsequent Taylor Report. Most terraced areas were either rebuilt or, as many clubs have done, entire grounds were replaced with all-seater stadiums – the Liberty Stadium replacing The Vetch, for example.

Because standing is popular, yet forbidden, "safe standing" is seen as a way to address common concerns relating to terracing like overcrowding and crushing, allowing a reintroduction within modern stadiums. It usually takes the form of "rail seats", where rows of seats are connected to waist-high rails then folded away during games to create two rows of terracing (as shown in the photo above).

It would make surges impossible because every standing supporter would be near a rail and every two rows of spectators would be divided. This would also enable the authorities to better control numbers coming and going, and whenever the stadium needs to be converted to an all-seater format (i.e. for European competitions or concerts), the seats are simply unlocked.

The Debate (link)

The all-seater Liberty Stadium hosts both football and rugby, but it's argued that
there's a contradiction in that top flight football is explicity banned from using terracing.
(Pic : Daily Mirror)

Ann Jones AM (Lab, Vale of Clwyd), started by highlighting how stadiums have changed down the years.  Ann said it was contradictory that terracing is banned at top-flight football grounds, yet remains at grounds that host other sports - like St Helen's new stadium, Langtree Park (image), which has terracing for 8,000 fans; or closer to home, Cardiff Arms Park and Parc y Scarlets. She said, "football fans want, and deserve, a choice when it comes to sitting or standing", with 92% of fans surveyed (not explained further) supporting the reintroduction of terracing, with stewards at football games facing, "a thankless task....of trying to persuade their club’s most passionate supporters to sit down". Ann believed the Football Association of Wales (FAW) had an opportunity, "to show the fans....that there is a real chance to pioneer a trial period of safe standing within the Welsh Premier League."

Suzy Davies AM (Con, South Wales West) said she was sceptical due to the impact of the Hillsborough disaster and didn't want to "support anything that would jeopardise football grounds becoming welcoming places for children, women, people with particular vulnerabilities or disabilities." Suzy's also – in the proper Wenglish – "only a dwt", raising an overlooked issue in this debate of indirect discrimination against short adults.

After seeing the roadshow demonstration, Suzy changed her mind, as it was "completely different from the death-trap terraces that I remember", while measures can be put in place for disabled supporters. She didn't support a "rush to safe standing", but concluded by saying that it should be allowed as part of planned stadium refurbishments.

Clubs like Cardiff City have had serious problems with hooliganism, and both Mike Hedges AM
and Suzy Davies AM argued that all-seater stadiums have diversified football crowds.
(Pic : news.yahoo.com)

Mike Hedges AM (Lab, Swansea East) played devil's advocate and was the only AM who spoke out against safe standing. He acknowledged that standing at football games was popular, saying it would "increase the capacity of football grounds without the need for any additional building work". However, he said safe standing was an "oxymoron", citing "the surge; the crush; overcrowding; hooliganism; and the charge" and going into detail as to the causes of these, reminising about crowd problems at an FA Cup tie between Swansea Town and Arsenal in 1968.

Leader of the Opposition, Andrew Davies AM (Con, South Wales Central) – one of the more vocal supporters of safe standing - pointed out that if Mike had been to the FSF demonstration he would realise his views were 30 years out of date.

Mike countered by saying that all-seater stands had provided a more mixed set of spectators and improved crowd management, concluding that reintroducing terracing would be "a serious and retrograde step".

Big German clubs like Borussia Dortmund make routine use of safe standing,
wheeling out seats when they compete in European competitions.
(Pic : schwatzgelb.de)

Plaid Cymru's sport spokesperson, Bethan Jenkins AM (Plaid, South Wales West), cited safe standing's widespread use in the German Bundesliga, using the example of (it's pronounced "Bor-oo-see-ya", Bethan) Borussia Dortmund's Signal Iduna Park, which has a terraced capacity of ~27,000. She noted that these standing areas can be quickly converted to seated areas to meet UEFA competition requirements too.

Bethan said clubs like Dortmund use CCTV and ticketing information to control crowds and pick out trouble-makers, and even if terracing has a "perceived correlation with hooliganism....improvement in technology, policing tactics and crowd behaviour need to be taken into account."

Bethan also raised the long-held belief amongst supporters that safe standing could lead to cheaper tickets as standing areas accommodate more fans. She said another possible benefit would be allowing, "those people who know that they will become more passionate than other people....to be in that area together" (aka "singing sections" and Ultras). She called for a "fact-based public debate" and "a realisation that time has moved on".

Aled Roberts AM (Lib Dem, North Wales) made the grave mistake of bringing up Mickey Thomas's 1992 fluke. That's unparliamentary behaviour if ever I saw it. Despite his own experiences of terrace troubles during a match between Wrexham and Crystal Palace in the 1970s, he said safe standing "is shown to work" and is being introduced to the Polish Ekstraklasa despite serious hooliganism problems there. Aled said (I don't know if it's true or not) the UK Government had blocked legislation on this - and it's a difference within the Coalition - calling on Welsh Conservatives to lobby Whitehall Tories to change their mind.

In his response, Culture Minister John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East) said that as a Newport County supporter he often stands himself, but "we have seen major improvements to spectator safety and comfort as a consequence of....legislation (Football Supporters Act 1989) being introduced" emphasising the lack of clarity on the issue despite safe standing being popular with supporters.

He said it isn't a "straightforward matter to resolve" but "safety is paramount". All in all John remained neutral, believing the "matter of a pilot of safe standing in Wales is for clubs, owners and supporters to consider."

If safe standing were permitted, would a redeveloped White Hart Lane
be the first ground equipped with it?
(Pic : premierleague.com)

Andrew Davies spoke well and at length on all the issues covered. He paid tribute to his researcher Vincent Bailey, who lives in hope that - as Spurs look on jealously from under the shadow cast by the Emirates Stadium - a redeveloped White Hart Lane could have safe standing areas.

It's very rare to hear The Arsenal mentioned in the Senedd chamber (three times during the debate in fact), and I can say that all Arsenal supporters have fond memories of White Hart Lane too. 71, 2004.

Mike Hedges then raised a valid question; whether any police forces, safety officers or licencing authorities support safe standing? Andrew said he hadn't "heard of any that have objected to it". He added that there was a strong case to hold a trial specifically in Wales because the Liberty Stadium and Cardiff City Stadium have medium-sized capacities, and it would therefore be easier to trial it here than a larger ground like Old Trafford.

Andrew wound up the debate by saying, "We see it (terracing) at rugby, we see it at horse racing tracks where fans are allowed to stand and enjoy their sport, and I fail to see why football fans should be treated differently."

The motion was approved by 26 votes to 1 with 20 abstentions (including, bizarrely, Mike Hedges).

The Issues Raised

Even the most well-supported Welsh Premier League clubs - like Rhyl and Bangor City - don't
attract the sorts of crowds necessary to determine if safe standing really would be safe.
(Pic : lilywhites.northwalesblogs.co.uk)

• Trialling safe standing in the Welsh Premier League – No offense to Ann Jones and her beloved Rhyl FC, but crowds in the Welsh Premier League are often measured in the hundreds, not tens of thousands. The only crush threat is the queue to the burger van. It wouldn't be a fair test. This would have to be trialled at a professional club in the higher tiers of the English pyramid – ultimately that means Cardiff or Swansea.
• Short adults and disabilities - Being only 5ft7 myself I know all too well what it's like to get stuck behind a human barn door at a football match, and it's not as if they make stilettos in my size. The logical solution to this would be to make terraces steeper so everyone – even the vertically disadvantaged – can see over the row in front. But that might be too expensive and cause safety concerns. It shouldn't affect disabled people as most clubs have designated disabled areas or wheelchair spaces which offer a clear view of the pitch. Supporters would still have a choice to remain in a seated area too.
• Policing & Crowd Control – I don't think Mike Hedges' arguments on this hold much water, except his question on whether police would back a return of terracing. I'd bet they wouldn't, and if terracing were reintroduced, police forces might consider charging clubs more to police games, deploying extra resources which would be better used elsewhere.
• Safety Certificates & Licensing - Some grounds - especially in built-up areas, like Arsenal's Emirates Stadium - have strict controls on the number of spectators allowed in due to the geography around the stadium or issues like transport. Even if a safe standing area held more spectators, the total number of supporters in the stadium could still be capped by safety certificates, making it a wasted effort if the goal of safe standing is to increase crowds. At the very least clubs that install large banks of safe standing would have to reapply for safety certificates.
• Ticket Prices & Costs – As I said last time, I don't think it's a given that ticket prices would automatically come down. Maybe smaller clubs would charge less to get people through the gates, but top-tier clubs might see it as an "experience" to sell to fans and the laws of supply and demand come into effect. Low ticket prices at German clubs are as much a result of how those clubs are owned (many are supporter-owned, and ownership by a single individual is banned) not just through the use of safe standing areas.

So, in the end, the National Assembly formally backed the promotion of safe standing and a pilot in Wales - though neither Welsh or British governments are bound by it. Whether a pilot goes ahead or not will likely come down to lobbying by the Culture Minister (who seems to want to wait for a cue from clubs) or a similar call in Westminster. I'm sure the campaign to bring back safe standing will see this support as useful too.

All of the speakers made valid and interesting points – for and against – demonstrating an ability to disagree with each other without resorting to the hyperbole and answer dodging that plagues other Assembly sessions. I'm a fan of these topical member's debates and, in my opinion, they should be held more often and are of more use than the usual Wednesday afternoon opposition debates.

Neither the Welsh Government or National Assembly have had the best of times over the last fortnight. This debate showed - even if the legislative session draws to a close with a dark cloud hanging over it – that maybe, just maybe, there's hope yet.

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Wales : The Next Generation

"Make it so".

What could be one of the most significant pieces of legislation this Assembly term was introduced earlier this week by Communities & Tackling Poverty Minister Jeff Cuthbert (Lab, Caerphilly) to "great fanfare" : the Well-being of Future Generations Bill.

When I try to summarise a new law I usually read the text of the Bill (pdf) and then use the explanatory memorandum (pdf) to either confirm my own understanding of what's written or clear things up.

This was a challenge. I was pinned down by jargon. Charlie tossed a few buzzword grenades and through the dense vegetation of management speak all I could hear were voices calling out, as English was abused with all the enthusiasm of a 1970s national treasure. I developed the thousand yard stare of legislative shell shock.

That's the sort of living hell I have to put myself through to bring you blogs like this. You don't know, man! You weren't there!

I guess what I'm trying to say is this is a very dense – dare I say it – slightly bizarre law. Having said that, the National Assembly's Members Research Service have done a good job of summarising the underlying principles of the Bill over at their In Brief blog.

The Goals of the Future Generations Bill

(Pic : xkcd.com)

I'm not fibbing when I say that if you wanted to sum up the Bill in one sentence it would be that it's "trying to improve everything by gently predicting and guiding future events". You name it, the Bill sets goals to improve it. All this is under the umbrella of "sustainable development" – something the Welsh Government and National Assembly are obliged to factor into their decisions by statute.

I suppose the clearest definition of "sustainable development" would be actions that would meet current human needs (like economic development, housing, transport) without putting pressure on the natural environment, and - importantly - being able to maintain that balance indefinitely.

The Bill was joined by a high-profile national conversation - launched by Michael Sheen back in February - called "The Wales We Want", which intends to outline what the people of Wales, of all ages, want the country to be like in 2050. An interim report (pdf) was published alongside the launch of the Bill.

The findings highlighted that the biggest single concerns were : climate change (26% of respondents), skills & education (16%), natural environment (14%) employment (13%) and governance (7%).

Here's a word cloud of the responses from postcard submissions :

(Pic : The Wales We Want interim report - click to enlarge)

Notice that "sustainability/sustainable" and "social justice" are tucked away. It's worth pondering whether "sustainability" is the Wales they (government and associated groups) want, not the Wales we (the public) want.

"Sustainable" is the single most annoying buzzword in Cardiff Bay. It's used so often, you would think AMs were piously green woodland creatures that make absolutely no impact on the planet in action or thought.

If you take statements and Senedd debates at face value, everything our AMs propose or support is "sustainable"; whether that's building a race track on an upland moor with no races, building houses in the middle of nowhere, prioritising a whacking great big motorway across the Gwent Levels over public transport or supporting a nuclear power station Wales doesn't even need - at present or in the future.

Don't get me wrong, everyone behind this – including the Welsh Government – has gone into it with the best possible intentions, but it's built on soft foundations. We never seem to get aggressive actions, only aggressive talk in an attempt to make "sustainability/sustainable development" mean whatever decision-makers and opinion-formers want it to mean.

I don't see that changing, and here's why....

What the Future Generations Bill proposes

There are six very important long-term goals the Bill aims to focus attentions on
- but the rest of it is all too familiar.
(Pic : The Wales We Want)

The broad aim of the Act will be to place a duty on all public bodies in Wales (Welsh Government, local health boards, local councils, national parks, fire and rescue services, directly funded government bodies like National Museums Wales etc.) to improve the well-being of the population by following the "sustainable development" principle : meet today's needs without compromising the needs of, and resources available to, future generations.

Well-being Goals

The Bill sets out six core well-being goals it expects every public body in Wales to pursue.

1. A prosperous Wales – A low carbon, innovative economy that creates jobs, wealth and provides skills to the workforce.
2. A resilient Wales – Healthy ecosystems that support social, economic and ecological resilience and can adapt to change.
3. A healthier Wales – A society where physical and mental well-being is maximised and behaviours that improve future health are understood.
4. A more equal Wales – A society that enables people to fulfil their potential regardless of background.
5. A Wales of cohesive communities – Attractive, safe and well-connected communities.
6. A Wales of vibrant culture and a thriving Welsh language – A society that promotes, protects and encourages participation in culture, sport, heritage and the Welsh language.

• These goals may be added to, removed or amended by the Welsh Government (after consultation and Assembly approval).
• Public bodies and Welsh Ministers must publish their own objectives to achieve these well-being goals in accordance with the sustainable development principle.
• The Welsh Government must publish indicators to measure progress towards achieving these goals and lay a copy in front of the the National Assembly. They'll also have to publish an annual report on their progress.
• Within 12 months of every Welsh General Election, the Welsh Government will need to publish a "Future Trends Report" that outlines future trends in the economic, social and environmental well-being of Wales – including relevant statistics where appropriate.

Future Generations Commissioner

The Bill :

• Establishes a Sustainability/Future Generations Commissioner (which already exists but as a non-statutory position).
• Outlines the broad role of the Commissioner as :
• Promoting the "sustainable development principle" by safeguarding the needs of future generations.
• Encouraging public bodies to take the long-term impact of their decisions into consideration.
• Monitoring how public bodies are meeting their well-being objectives.
• Encouraging best practice amongst public bodies and promote awareness of sustainable development.
• Undertaking research or studies into sustainable development.
• Making recommendations to Welsh Ministers and public bodies on sustainable development goals. Those bodies will have a duty to follow any recommendations from the Commissioner unless they have good reason not to, or they come up with a better alternative.
• Places a duty on the Commissioner to publish a Future Generations report outlining what actions public bodies can take to meet their well-being objectives, after consultation with public bodies, the advisory panel (below), trade unions, businesses and anyone else the Commissioner deems appropriate.
• Establishes an Advisory Panel made up of other Commissioners (Chlidren's, Older People's), chief officers (i.e Chief Medical Officer) the chair of Natural Resources Wales and other members appointed by the Welsh Government.
• Bars elected representatives or peers from being appointed as Commissioner.

Public Service Boards

The Bill :

• Establishes Public Service Boards in each local authority area (post-merger?) made up of the local council, local health board, fire and rescue authorities and Natural Resources Wales.
• Places a duty on these new boards to invite other key participants, like Welsh Ministers, chief constables, Police & Crime Commissioners and bodies representing voluntary organisations ("Third Sector"). Other partners include community councils, Community Health Councils and Assembly-sponsored bodies (i.e Sport Wales).
• Grants powers to the hosting local authority's overview and scrutiny committee to review and scrutinise the public service board's functions and governance, and also grants them the power to report failings to the Welsh Government.
• Grants powers to Welsh Ministers to merge public service boards or direct them to collaborate if it would be beneficial.

The functions of the Public Service Boards are :

• To improve the economic, social and ecological well-being of their local area in accordance with the sustainable development principle.
• To publish an assessment of the well-being of their local area within one year of establishment.
• To develop local well-being plans to meet any decided local well-being aims in accordance with the sustainable development principle.
• To fully include community councils which have an expenditure of over £200,000 per year, which will – in turn – have to play a role in meeting the well-being aims set by the public service boards at a community level.

How much will the Future Generations Act cost?

The explanatory memorandum provided a very detailed breakdown of the potential costs based on various policy options. I'm only basing this off the Welsh Government's preferred option in each case.

The costs of the new levels of reporting, as set out in the Bill, will be just under £1.8million per year between 2015-16 and 2019-20, with an initial upfront cost of around £1million. The total costs will be spread across all the public bodies involved, ranging from £600,000 to the Welsh Government, to £40,000 (combined) for 73 community councils affected by the Bill (~£550 per council). The total cost of the reporting/monitoring well-being goals, between 2015-2020, will be around £10million.

The Future Generations Commissioner will cost £1.46million per year. This includes payments of up to £350 per day to members of the advisory panel, staffing costs (£948,000) – which will include plenty of "officer level" appointments - and general office running costs. Over the five year projections that's a total of around £7.3million.

The Public Service Boards will cost between £2.3million and £2.93million per year for the five years after the passing of the Act. Most of that will go towards partnership support and developing well-being plans themselves. It's expected each of the service boards will lay out around £414,000 per year on public engagement. Based on the figures provided, the total cost of the Public Service Boards between 2015-16 and 2019-20 is around £13million.

So the total estimated cost of any Well-being of Future Generation Act, over five financial years, is at least £30.3million.

A sustainable water-saturated miniature pyrotechnic device

An all too familiar Welsh way of doing things : talk in offices, ticks in boxes.
The launch of a flagship law should've been a cause for celebration,
but the response has been near-mute.
(Pic : Sustainable Cities Collective)

This is – Human Transplantation Act 2013 aside – the Welsh Government's flagship law of the Fourth Assembly. I suppose you can say it's been set up to be the lasting legacy of this generation of Welsh Ministers, and what they want to be remembered for once they retire, hence the Bill's title.

I presume this was supposed to be the Welsh Government's "big announcement" before going into recess (along with the local government white paper), its intention being to leave us all wanting more and to get the chattering classes pondering it over the summer.

This is supposed to be a radical, progressive, generation-defining law that "Wales is going to be famous for in the future".

If it really were that though, it would be everywhere right now. The world's media would be paying attention to little old Wales, while those at the other end of the M4 will be actively trying to learn from what we're attempting to do here.

In a way, this is another victim of the Alun Davies scandal. It hasn't been Carwyn's week, has it?

Aside from Click on Wales articles (here, here) and this blog today, it's barely made a ripple. The Western Mail had a negative spin, but was truthful - their Assembly correspondent Graham Henry (who, like myself, is no fan of Assemblese) described the Bill's launch event as "the closest we will come to a jargon nirvana" on Twitter. BBC Wales focused on the Wales We Want public attitudes survey. ITV Wales – as far as I can tell – didn't even bother. There are pretty good reasons for that.

Let's review what we get from this Bill : a Commissioner (whom already exists but is being put on the statute books), another collection of unelected patronage-based committees hovering above local government (with obligatory involvement of the Third Sector), and a set of rather broad catch all goals that you would expect any government in any liberal democracy to want to work towards.

Yeah, this is definitely Welsh Labour's baby alright.

A focused sustainable development law might've been boring, but it would've been a bit more intellectually honest than this.

That doesn't mean it's all bad. I like the idea of a once-a-term "Future Trends Report", for example. That could be incredibly useful. It looks like community councils are going to get a beefed-up public role too, and I don't really have a problem with another Commissioner.

If you're bored now though - it's not as if many of you are going to plough through everything written above - I'm going to make this a bit more interesting.

You could, in a twisted way, interpret this Bill as being an embryonic written Welsh Constitution. It sets out clear long-term goals and establishes a set of core principles "the Welsh state" will be obligated to work towards.

However, while constitutions and long-term goals are nice, they're not policy and they often don't warrant legislative measures.

The Bill could potentially throw up some very nasty situations if passed too. There's the question of what would happen if two or more of the well-being goals clash - housing (communities) and the Welsh language (culture) for instance? Which would win out? Are some of the six well-being goals more important than others?

"Klingons off the starboard bow"
It's all very well the Welsh Government setting well-being goals, but they've
completely neglected the impact this lot can do to torpedo those goals.
(Pic : The Guardian)

Also, while the Welsh Government and public bodies are going to be subject to this law, it doesn't seem to take into consideration actions by the UK Government or private sector which could have a negative impact on the six Welsh well-being goals. Westminster's primacy says hello.

For example, most energy powers rest with the UK Government, so they could - theoretically – unilaterally dump nuclear waste from around the UK in Wales if no community comes forward, or open up as much land as possible for fracking. That could, in the worse circumstances, trash many of the Welsh well-being goals (like ecological resilience and health). Yet the UK Government or private companies wouldn't be subject to this law because areas like defence and nuclear energy are non-devolved.

The Welsh Government would in a farcical position of being bound by this law not to do the same thing in their own territory, nor would they be able to prevent another government running roughshod over it. It's the equivalent of a "No Bombing" sign in a swimming pool.

What would happen if there's another round of welfare reform which would negatively impact the well-being goal to improve equality of opportunity? Would the Bill - from a subordinate legislature - override Westminster's sovereignty and force Whitehall to reconsider their actions? It wouldn't, would it? In that situation, sadly, the Bill's completely and utterly worthless. The very unbalanced nature of the Union - something Labour are keen to protect - could sink the Welsh Government's own "legacy law".

So in one swoop the Welsh Government might've just made the best legal and social justice argument for Welsh independence. They didn't think of it like that though, did they?

You would expect me to be pleased with that, but – alas - in its current form, the Bill should be rejected. It needs to go back to the drawing board and become a straight-up Sustainable Development Bill, or possibly merged with the proposed Planning Bill.

That's not because it's poorly thought through, but because - aside from more committees and a new Commissioner - there's absolutely no way in hell any Welsh Government, of any colour, will ever live up to the well-being goals.

It should be rejected because - until they can prove that they can back words with deeds - it's too optimistic a vision of the future for our politicians to work towards. That's a sad thing to say, but it's true. And believe me I wish it wasn't so.

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